2018 ELECTION REPORT CARD: WILL THE TRUDEAU GOVERNMENT DELIVER ON ITS RAISED EXPECTATIONS? By Shane Mackenzie & Jesse Robichaud Three years on from 2015 – campaign strategists are turning their attention to the 2019 federal election. For Prime Minister Trudeau’s incumbent Liberals, the strategic path to re-election will look different than the party’s vault from third place to a resounding pan-Canadian victory last time. The Way Things Were The promise of hope and renewed confidence in government was palpable when voters turned out en masse to elect MPs from Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party. The mere idea that “better is always possible!” gained traction with an electorate whose expectations had been steadily managed downward by the Harper government’s “no nonsense” decade at the helm. A previously struggling Liberal voter base came to life when the party’s candidates and their leader framed their platform of “real change” promises as a return to openness, evidence-based policy, climate action, large-scale investment, reconciliation, equality, support for families, and diversity. The Way Things Are No good deed goes unpunished, and for Trudeau there will undoubtedly be a political price to pay for raising the bar for what voters should expect from their government. Indeed, the success standard set for Trudeau is higher than in some past elections. And he set it himself. Once the bar has been raised, it’s impossible to lower it again – and it’s also harder to clear it consistently, as we have seen with issues like electoral reform, climate policy, pipelines, and relations with provincial governments. What’s more, the potential is even greater for self-inflicted wounds on issues like ethics, small business tax changes, and diplomatic fumbles on the world stage. The New Normal: A Higher Bar for Government and Re-Election In the natural sequence of telling voters they should expect more, the Liberal government has assigned itself the responsibility of telling voters more about what they have delivered and where they still face obstacles. The term that’s been slapped on this responsibility is “deliverology,” a novel concept for Canada’s government – stemming from Sir Michael Barber’s work in the Blair U.K. government – built in the vein of corporate metrics like Key Performance Indicators. Now, MPs are turning toward defending their record of accomplishments and refining their campaign elevator pitch. What do the Liberal MPs that make up the governing caucus have to show for it? • 72 government bills passed from the House of Commons Critics are quick to point to how this is less than their predecessors. If you solely base success on numbers of pieces of legislation passed, the benchmark set by the Harper Conservatives after 4 years of majority government (2011-2015) is very high: • 122 government bills passed It’s not just about cold, hard numbers on bills passed though. The government rightly points out this does not tell the story of “quality over quantity” or reflect the increased time provided for substantive review of these ideas. It’s about what impacts that legislation had on Canadians. The government uses its deliverology approach to fill in its own report card at Canada.ca/results, with an expansive scope that goes beyond legislation to include provincial/territorial as well as international agreements, new funding, strategies or consultations, appointments and other progress markers. TrudeauMeter.polimeter.org provides a third-party perspective on analysis of promises and estimates the government has achieved 1/3 of its campaign commitments, while 1/3 are in progress, 1/5 abandoned, and 1/5 have not begun, with numbers based on National Post reporting. CANADIAN PARLIAMENTARY GUIDE 2019 xix 2018 ELECTION REPORT CARD: WILL THE TRUDEAU GOVERNMENT DELIVER ON ITS RAISED EXPECTATIONS? Back in 2015, the Trudeau government quickly moved to a more nimble and sophisticated approach than measuring against campaign platforms by providing public mandate letters once in government. Former Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty used to reiterate the message that success in government is about getting “the big things right.” For Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals – the ballot box question that voters will pivot on regionally or demographically may crystalize closer to Election Day. However, there are some telltale buckets that his team must not forget to demonstrate action on: • Health Care: Poll Canadians anytime – they value their health care. Trudeau’s most visible health initiatives were regulating cannabis and major Health Accord deals, but Liberals will have to communicate strongly how they have delivered on this. • Canada-U.S.: Trudeau’s performance on Canada-U.S. relations has earned praise – having secured a renewed NAFTA deal-in-principle. The volatile Trump-Trudeau relationship put that deal in question following on a war of words during the 2017 G7 Summit in Charlevoix, Quebec. Whether it’s getting trade deals done or it’s standing up to Trump on behalf of Canada, Canadians want to see this relationship well managed. • Unity: After a few years with progressive Premiers at the helm of provinces, the majority of Canadians have opted for conservative provincial governments who will openly attack Trudeau’s record during the election – yet it’s up to Trudeau to maintain a reputation of being a consensus-builder. This was core to his promises. • Border policies and safety: Conservatives believe the government is vulnerable on its handling of illegal migration and terrorism concerns, but Trudeau’s ability to communicate compassion and cool-headed reassurance has played well with voters so far with the cross section of Canadians he relies on for success. Nevertheless, complex and emotionally charged issues such as these can prove volatile for governments. • Jobs: A low unemployment rate and a wealth of new companies popping up in Canada is a positive backdrop for Trudeau to walk into 2019 with. The state of the economy always impacts politics. • Dollars and cents: Conservative branding conveys lower debt and deficits. Trudeau may disagree about whether they have historically delivered that, but voters buy into the narrative. Contending with this is central to the economic messaging battle. With around 200 days until the next election and over 1200 under their belt in government – the Trudeau government’s track to October 21, 2019 is paved with deliverables and expectations. What gets delivered, and how, will determine this government’s re-election prospects, and the expectations it could carry into a second mandate. Originally published by Ensight Canada, June 2018. http://www.ensightcanada.com/2018-election-report-card-will-the-trudeau-government-deliver-on-its-raised-expectations Reprinted with the permission of Ensight Canada. xx GUIDE PARLEMENTAIRE CANADIEN 2019 CANADIAN PARLIAME Federal representation of women & Indigenous people in MP positions by ratio & percentage in past two elections Party 41st general election (2011) Party 42nd general election (2015 / Current) Total # of seats Ratio of men to women Female percentage of seats (%) Total # of seats Ratio of men to women Female percentage of seats (%) CPC 161 132 to 37 17.4 Lib. 179 127 to 52 29.1 NDP 96 62 to 27 36.5 CPC 96 78 to 18 18.8 Lib. 37 26 to 9 24.3 NDP 40 23 to 17 42.5 BQ 2 4 to 0 0 BQ 10 8 to 2 20 Green 2 1 to 1 50 Ind. 4 4 to 0 0 FD 2 2 to 0 0 Green 1 0 to 1 100 Ind. 5 2 to 3 60 CCF 1 1 to 0 0 NTARY GUIDE 2019Ind. Con. 1 1 to 0 0 xxi PPC 1 1 to 0 0 Total # of seats Ratio of non-Indigenous to Indigenous Indigenous percentage of seats (%) Total # of seats Ratio of non-Indigenous to Indigenous Indigenous percentage of seats (%) CPC 161 157 to 4 2.5 Lib. 179 171 to 8 4.5 NDP 96 94 to 2 2.1 CPC 96 96 to 0 0 Lib. 37 36 to 1 2.7 NDP 40 38 to 2 5 BQ 2 2 to 0 0 BQ 10 10 to 0 0 Green 2 2 to 0 0 Ind. 4 3 to 1 25 FD 2 2 to 0 0 Green 1 1 to 0 0 GOVERNMENT STATISTICS Ind. 5 5 to 0 0 CCF 1 1 to 0 0 Ind. Con. 1 1 to 0 0 PPC 1 1 to 0 0 Longest-serving sitting MP: Louis Plamondon (BQ, Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel, first elected in 1984) Eldest sitting MP: David Allan Tilson (CPC, Dufferin--Caledon, 77, first elected in 2004 at age 63) Youngest sitting MP: Pierre Luc-Dusseault (NDP, Sherbrooke, first elected in 2011 at age 19, setting a record for youngest MP of all time) Eve Adams crossed the floor from CPC to Liberal in Feb. 2015. John Baird (CPC) resigned his seat in Ottawa West-Nepean in March 2015. James Lunney left the CPC caucus in March 2015 to sit as an Independent. In the 2015 general election, a new record was set for number of women elected, with 88 female MPs being elected in 2015, compared with 77 in 2011. A new record for elected aboriginal MPs was also set, with 10 elected in 2015 compared with 7 in 2011. Jim Hillyer (CPC) died on March 23, 2016. Inuit MP Hunter Tootoo (Lib.) resigned from cabinet and the Liberal caucus on May 31, 2016. He remained as an Independent. Mauril Bélanger (Lib.) died on Aug. 16, 2016. Stephen Harper (CPC) resigned his seat on Aug. 26, 2016. Jason Kenney (CPC) resigned his seat on Sept. 23, 2016. A by-election in the riding of Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner, Alberta, was held on Oct. 24, 2016.