INSTITUTE OF SUSTAINABLE RESOURCES
Greening the Recovery in Ghana and Zambia Climate change is one of the most pressing global challenges. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, action is needed to reduce global carbon emissions to net-zero by the middle of this century. Whilst Covid-19 has led to temporary reductions in emissions, the wider economic and social impacts of the pandemic risk slowing down or derailing action on climate change.
This project focuses on the opportunities for integrating economic recovery and climate change policies in Ghana and Zambia. Both countries have been affected significantly by the pandemic. Reported numbers of infections and deaths are low when compared to rates in many developed economies. However, the economic impacts have been severe – for example, due to lower demand for commodities they export such oil and copper. Summary of NDC emissions targets
The research team from the UK, Ghana and Zambia is Primary energy mix (2018) workingGreenhouse with gas governmentsemissions and other stakeholders to (million tonnes of CO2 equivalent) develop80 detailed plans for a low carbon recovery. This includes revisions to Ghana and Zambia’s national climate change70 strategies, known as Nationally Determined 80 Contributions (NDCs). The emissions targets included in Zambia 60 70 their first NDCs, submitted in 2015/16, are summarised Ghana below.50 They include more ambitious conditional targets 60 that depend on international assistance. Zambia 40 Ghana 50 12.6mtoe The research will explore how both countries could go 9.9mtoe 30 40 even further, and what policy options and investments could20 deliver them. This includes options for meeting 30 growing energy demand from low carbon sources rather 10 20 than fossil fuels, and the extent to which these plans could0 also help to achieve universal access to electricity. 10 2010 2020 BAU 2030 BAU 2030 2010' 20202030 BAU conditional2030 BA NDCU target (with international assistance) conditional NDC target Bioenergy (with international Coal Hydro Emissions targets from first NDCs assistance) & waste Ghana Zambia Natural Wind 80 Oil Zambia Ghana Zambia gas & solar 70 80 Ghana 60 70 Source: IEA country profiles; mtoe = million tonnes of oil equivalent )
50 60
40 50 The project is using a participatory scenario 30 40 methodology that combines stakeholder engagement,
20 30 narratives about the future, energy modelling and policy analysis. This has four main elements: 10 Ghana Zambia 20 Greenhouse gas emissions
0 (million tonnes of CO2 equivalent 802010' 20202030 BAU conditional2030 BA NDCU target (with international assistance) 10 Mapping the policy and societal 0 landscape to understand how this 70 2010 2030 business 2030 conditional ) as usual target has changed due to Covid-19, and to
1. 60 examine policies and plans that are Source: Ghana and Zambia NDCs already being developed. 50 80 Developing participatory scenarios 7040 Access to electricity with stakeholders that explore 6030 2. plausible pathways for a clean, resilient 50 recovery. 20 Ghana Zambia Greenhouse gas emissions 40 2010 2018 2010 2018 (million tonnes of CO2 equivalent 10 30 Quantifying these scenarios using 0 open-source models of energy 20 2010 2020 BAU 2030 BAU 2030 conditional Urban 3. systems and land use, and using the 10 NDC target results to refine the scenario narratives. (with international 0 2010' 20202030 BAU conditional2030 BA NDCU target (with internationalassistance) assistance) Developing policy responses and Rural supporting their implementation. This 80 will include policies to support energy access, job creation and support 70 4. Total investment in 60 low carbon technologies and nature based solutions. 50 Source: World Bank data 40
30 The project includes continuous engagement with policy and other stakeholders to maximise tangible impacts on 20 decision-making. Longer-term impacts will be enhanced through training courses in Ghana and Zambia, and an online 10 short course. 0 2010' 20202030 BAU conditional2030 BA NDCU target (with internationalThe assistance) project is funded by the Global Challenges Research Fund and the Newton Fund via the UKRI Collective Fund.