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Annual Turkish M&A Review 2020 Annual Turkish M&A Review 2020 January 2021 Annual Turkish M&A Review 2020 Basis of Presentation Transactions data presented in this report are based on information that is readily available in the public domain and include transactions with regulatory approval and closing procedures still ongoing at the year end. This study does not include capital market transactions, IPOs, real estate sales, intra-group share transfers and transactions of financial institutions within the framework of debt restructuring. We do not accept any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of the data or as to whether all transactions listed herein will necessarily close. 2 Annual Turkish M&A Review 2020 Turkish M&A market emerges from quarantine Following a sluggish year, M&A activity in In a year marked by the Covid-19 pandemic, global M&A activity 2020 restored confidence with increasing slowed down in the first half of 2020 due to lock downs, travel deal volume and deal number. Total M&A bans and uncertainties where many large deals have been canceled or delayed. Although the deal making activity has deal volume in 2020 was around US$9.0 picked up in the second half of the year, the uncertainties remain billion through all-time high 304 transactions, in the global economy. indicating a y-o-y growth of 70% and 30% in terms of deal volume and deal number, Following an initial pause in M&A deals at the start of the respectively. Increase in deal volume was pandemic, the Turkish M&A activity showed signs of a notable driven by the first unicorn transaction closed in recovery since June where the national lockdown was lifted and deal making activity outperformed expectations. 304 deals have the Turkish M&A history and the transactions been recorded in Turkey with a total deal value of US$9.0 billion. of the Turkey Wealth Fund. The weight of While significantly down on historical levels, volumes are higher early-stage M&As backed by venture capital than had been expected. The Turkish M&A activity broke a new firms and angel investors in total M&A activity record this year by exceeding 300 transactions in a year for the continued to increase, with 44% of the total first time. Out of 304 deals, 133 had a disclosed value adding deal number. up to c. US$6.3 billion. Considering the estimated value of deals with undisclosed values, we estimate that total M&A volume was around US$9.0 billion, corresponding to a growth of 70% y-o-y (2019 – c. US$5.3 billion via 233). 3 Annual Turkish M&A Review 2020 M&A activity was once again characterized by small and The annual deal volume was furthermore led by the Turkey middle market transactions with the abundance of early-stage Wealth Fund transactions including the acquisition of a investments. On the other hand, only two big ticket deals made controlling stake in the GSM operator Turkcell for US$1,8 billion. up 40% of total deal volume. The acquisition of the Turkish Following a number of acquisitions with a total value of US$953 mobile game company Peak Games by the US-based game million, Turkey Wealth Fund has consolidated public insurance developer Zynga for a record breaking US$1.8 billion was the companies which stood among the largest transaction of the first «unicorn» deal in Turkey. While Zynga made the largest year. 304 $46bn acquisition in its history, the deal was marked as the largest Rer ih $90bn 14% rein 2 transaction involving a Turkish startup. Venture capital firms and angel investors increased their activity uer eal alue eal alue nvesrs Mea eals significantly and shaped the financial investors market where Transains eal alue private equity funds acted rather slowly. In addition to the unicorn deal, 134 startups in Turkey received c. US$200 million of investment from venture capital and angel investors in 2020 which represents the steady development of the ecosystem. Although global pandemic uncertainties are likely to persist in 2021, the investors are actively seeking good opportunities in selected sectors especially those which will be able to adapt to $18bn $18bn 70% 30% 44% the post-Covid era. The volatility in Turkish Lira made valuations irs nirn ares rwh in rwh in arus al of Turkish businesses more attractive for international investors. in Turke Looking ahead, we anticipate a further recovery in the Turkish eal alue eal alue eal uer eal nuer eak aes Turkell T M&A activity in the upcoming period. na On behalf of our corporate finance team in Deloitte Turkey, we are delighted to share our annual Turkish M&A Review, featuring our analyses and views regarding the M&A market here. 4 Annual Turkish M&A Review 2020 At a glance 304 $46bn Rer ih $90bn 14% rein 2 uer eal alue eal alue nvesrs Mea eals Transains eal alue $18bn $18bn 70% 30% 44% irs nirn ares rwh in rwh in arus al in Turke eal alue eal alue eal uer eal nuer eak aes Turkell T na 5 Annual Turkish M&A Review 2020 In the climate of pandemic challenges, the M&A market demonstrated resilience in 2020 Deal Volume and Deal Number 35 2.2% 2.5% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 1.6% 1.2% 1.4% 30 0.8% 0.7% 1.000 295 304 25 237 253 245 246 256 190 215 234 233 22,0 100 20 17,3 17,5 18,0 (US$ billion) 16,4 15,0 15 10 12,0 10,3 10 9,0 7,3 1 5,3 5 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Deal Value Deal Number Deal Value/GDP 6 Annual Turkish M&A Review 2020 The deal volume of c. US$9 billion materialized through 304 deals, was an all-time high in terms of number of deals in the Turkish M&A history Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Deal Number 246 295 256 233 304 Deal Volume US$7.3 billion US$10.3 billion US$12.0 billion US$5.3 billion US$9.0 billion Foreign Investors / US$3.8 billion US$5.5 billion US$7.6 billion US$3.4 billion US$4.6 billion Share in Total / 52% / 53% / 63% / 64% / 51% 22% of deal value / 25% of deal value / 8% of deal value / 17% of deal value / 44% of deal value / Financial Investors 41% of deal number 49% of deal number 41% of deal number 37% of deal number 54% of deal number Average Deal Size c. US$30 mn c. US$35 mn c. US$47 mn c. US$23 mn c. US$30 mn Share of the Ten Largest Deals in 37% 50% 63% 50% 58% Total Volume Note: Data presented above include estimates for deals with undisclosed values 7 Annual Turkish M&A Review 2020 Global M&As returned to the market in the third quarter, boosting number of deals and total value after a stagnant period brought by the pandemic Global deal volume and # of deals-quarterly Turkey deal volume and # of deals-quarterly 13 1.200 14 6 120 12 12 12 13 12 1.000 12 5 * 100 11 96 10 84 800 4 80 9 8 66 66 3 60 600 58 1.116 57 55 (US$ bn) (US$ bn) 6 55 902 939 4,87 400 843 862 2 40 4 653 558 200 1 20 2 2,09 302 1,43 1,65 0,88 0,95 0,90 0,99 0,52 - - - - 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Deal Volume Global - Quarterly (US$ bn) - 2019 Deal Volume Global - Quarterly (US$ bn) - 2020 Deal Volume Turkey - Quarterly (US$ bn) - 2019 Deal Volume Turkey - Quarterly (US$ bn) - 2020 # of Deals Global - Quarterly (k) - 2019 # of Deals Global - Quarterly (k) - 2020 # of Deals Turkey - Quarterly - 2019 # of Deals Turkey - Quarterly - 2020 * US$ 4.87 corresponds to Peak Games, Turkcell and other TWF transactions Source: S&P Source: Deloitte M&A Newsletter Global deal value and deal count declined by 15% to c.US$2.8 Usually third quarter is a slow one in terms of mergers and The M&A activity has similarly slowed down in terms of deal trillion (2019 - c.US$3.3 trillion) and by 8% to c.45k (2019-c.49k) in acquisitions as the activity tends to slow down during the number in the Turkish market at the beginning of pandemic. 2020 respectively. summer period. However, we have witnessed a surge in When we exclude the impact of a few big ticket transactions, deal-making activity in the third quarter upon the ease in the development of the Turkish M&A activity is similar to global Covid-19 cases during the summer. This was partially a result of trends. postponed transactions at the beginning of the pandemic. 8 Annual Turkish M&A Review 2020 Foreign investors deal volume increased by 35% which represents ongoing investor confidence in the Turkish market Deal Volume By Origin Deal Number By Origin 20 Deal Number By Origin 350 100% 57% 60% 74% 70%350 46% 48% 51% 18 59% 57% 63% 64% 41% 52% 53% 52%51% 300 60% 38% 44% 46% 48% 40% 16 41% 50% 29% 30% 30% 300 38% 27% 40% 24% 29% 30% 14 24%250 27% 20% 13,0 225 222 12,3 250 0% 20% 11,5 12 225 222 0% 11,1 200 182 10,1 0% 10 9,0 200 -50% 162 (US$ billion) (US$ billion) 182 153 -20% 7,9 150 137 162139 8 7,6 (US$ billion) 128 -20% 153 121 120125 150 137 139 119 113 -40% 128 -100% 104 6 5,3 5,5 121 120125 4,9 4,8 119 113 100 89 -40% 93 104 4,4 4,4 4,6 82 3,9 3,8 70 74 71 -60% 100 3,5 89 93 4 3,4 82 -150% 74 -60% 70 50 71 1,9 -80% 2 50 -80% 0 -200% 0 -100% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0 -100% Turkish Investors Foreign Investors2011 Foreign2012 Investor2013 Contribution2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Turkish2019 Investors2020 Foreign Investors Foreign Investor Contribution Turkish Investors Foreign Investors Foreign Investor Contribution (*) Including estimates for undisclosed values Foreign and Turkish investors have generated a similar share of Despite global uncertainties under pandemic effects, foreign Similarly, the total value of the deals involving Turkish investors the total annual deal volume this year (including estimates for investors maintained their confidence in Turkish market.
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