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Annual Turkish M&A Review 2015

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Annual Turkish M&A Review 2015 Annual Turkish M&A Review 2015 January 2016 Basis of Presentation Transactions data presented in this report are based on information that is readily available in the public domain and include transactions with closing procedures still ongoing at the year end. This study does not include capital market transactions, IPOs, real estate sales, intra- group share transfers and transactions of financial institutions within the framework of debt restructuring. We do not accept any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of the data or as to whether all transactions listed herein will necessarily close. Foreword 2015 was a challenging year for the M&A market here, in the shadow of political uncertainty and weakened growth story of the economy. Nevertheless, the Turkish M&A market recorded a total deal volume of c. US$16.4 billion through 245 deals and managed to remain largely flat. In the lack of privatizations mostly driven by Turkish investors in the past, foreign buyers drove the overall M&A volume. Despite rising risk perceptions, the total deal size generated by foreign investors increased by 44% compared to 2014 and made up c. 70% of the total annual deal volume. The privatization activity remained low at one of the fewest number of deals historically and represented only a small portion of the total annual deal volume while the private sector deal volume was the highest in the last three years. On the other hand, although very cautious this year, financial investors with different profiles, continued to invest in Turkish companies through debt and equity deals. As similar to the previous years, middle market transactions kept pace with a wider sectoral coverage. On the other hand, half of the total deal volume was generated by Başak Vardar a handful of deals of US$500 million-plus. Financial Advisory Leader Partner Looking ahead to 2016, geopolitical risks in the region, pressure on the emerging markets due to the recent FED’s interest rate increase and internal political debates are hindering clear forecasts. Having said that, strong demographics, continued single party governance and anticipated economic reforms to create a new growth story help to alleviate our concerns for the future M&A activity. On behalf of our corporate finance team in Deloitte Turkey, we are delighted to share our annual M&A report, featuring our analyses and views regarding the Turkish M&A market. 1 Foreign investors’ appetite and middle market dynamism kept the deal flow alive in a challenging year Investors remained keen on exploring investment opportunities in the Turkish market in a difficult year, characterized by uncertainty. Total M&A deal volume in 2015 was around US$16.4 billion through 245 transactions. Foreign investors drove the activity by making 70% of the total deal volume. Privatization activity was at one of the lowest levels historically, while the middle market and financial investors were again active. In a challenging year in the midst of political uncertainty, While foreign investors shared the total deal number geopolitical tension in the region, volatile exchange rates almost evenly with local investors, they played a and diminishing consumer and investor confidence, the dominant role in the deal volume. In the lack of Turkish M&A market managed to remain largely flat. privatizations mostly driven by Turkish buyers historically Out of 245 deals, 114 had a disclosed deal value adding and as opposed to the last couple of years, the up to c. US$10.9 billion. Considering the estimated contribution of foreign investors to the annual deal value of deals with undisclosed values, we estimate volume was very strong, at a level of 70% through that total M&A volume was around US$16.4 billion in 125 transactions with a total deal size of c. US$11.5 2015, representing a 9% decrease compared to 2014 billion (including estimates for undisclosed values), (2014 – US$18 billion via 234 deals). Small and middle corresponding to an increase of 44% compared market transactions shaped the overall M&A activity by to 2014. Besides, Turkish investors represented the deal numbers; foreign investors dominated the annual remaining 30% of the annual deal value through volume; and privatization deals dropped to one of the 120 deals with a total deal value of c. US$4.9 lowest levels in the last decade. billion (including estimates for undisclosed values), representing a decrease of 51% compared to 2014. 2 Privatization activity which was noteworthy in recent Financial investors with various profiles continued to years, remained limited at one of the lowest levels play a major role in the M&A market and made up 19% historically, due to postponed tender processes with and 21% of the total deal volume and the total number respect to consecutive elections and thus pulled down of deals, respectively (c. US$3.1 billion – including the deal volume. Total deal value of privatizations estimates for undisclosed values – in 52 deals). Although remained low around US$1.8 billion (2014 – US$5.9 they pursued prudent strategies, their M&A activity billion) through 7 deals, mostly being power generation outperformed 2013 and 2014 both in terms of deal assets, and represented c. 11% of the total deal volume. number and value, due to the increasing number of On another note, the private sector deal volume had a deals by development banks and venture capital firms, y-o-y growth of 25% and the contribution of foreign including debt deal structures. investors to the private sector deal volume was around Despite adverse geopolitical events in the region and 79%. expected lower growth dynamics for emerging markets, This year’s largest deal was in the private sector, namely a recovery is expected on the back of the continuation Qatar National Bank’s majority stake acquisition – worth of the single party government and anticipated c. US$3 billion – in Finansbank, that made up 18% of economic reforms. the total annual deal volume. Furthermore, the ten largest transactions comprised c. 50% of the total deal value (including estimates for undisclosed values). If the terms were disclosed and successfully closed after certain regulatory approvals, we would expect a couple of other deals to enter the top ten list; in such a case, this ratio would be even higher around 57%. Excluding the ten largest deals with disclosed values, the remainder (235 deals) totalled around US$8.2 billion, corresponding to an average deal size of c. US$35 million. Furthermore, 193 transactions each with a deal value less than c. US$50 million, which accounted for 79% of the total deal number, represented only c. 12% of the total deal value (based on an analysis including estimates for undisclosed values). 3 At a glance Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Deal Number 237 253 215 234 245 Deal Volume US$15.0 billion US$22.0 billion US$17.5 billion US$18.0 billion US$16.4 billion Privatizations / US$1 billion / 7% US$6.4 billion / 29% US$6.6 billion / 38% US$5.9 billion / 33% US$1.8 billion / 11% Share in Total Foreign Investors (*) 74% 59% 30% 44% 70% of deal value of deal value of deal value of deal value of deal value Financial Investors 8% 7% 12% 12% 19% of deal value of deal value of deal value of deal value of deal value Average Deal Size (**) c. US$63 mn c. US$87 mn c. US$81 mn c. US$77 mn c. US$67 mn Share of the Ten Largest 56% 71% 49% 55% 50% Deals in Total Volume Largest Deal Value / US$2.1 bn US$3.8 bn US$1.7 bn US$2.7 bn US$3.0 bn Share in Total (Genel Enerji) / 14% (Denizbank) / 17% (Toroslar Electricity (Yeniköy and Kemerköy (Finansbank) / 18% Disco) / 10% Power Plants) / 15% Note: Data presented above include estimates for deals with undisclosed values and are adjusted for cancelled transactions. (*) Excluding privatizations, foreign investors’ share in the remainder of the deal value was 79%, 83%, 47%, 66% and 79% in respective years. (**) Excluding the ten largest deals, the average deal size of the remainder was c. US$29, c. US$26, c. US$44, c. US$36 and c. US$35 million in respective years. 4 Deal Volume and Deal Number Deal Volume and Deal Number 30 300 253 25 237 245246 250 22,0 215 234 20 200 18,0 17,5 16,4 15,0 15 150 (US$ billion)(US$ 10 100 5 50 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Deal Value Deal Number 5 Privatizations Far from being a major driver of the deal volume as in Privatizations’ weight in the top ten list was also slight the last 3 years, privatization activity was at one of the in 2015 both in terms of deal value and deal number lowest levels historically, both in terms of deal number (3 out of 10) as opposed to larger shares in 2013 and and deal volume mostly due to heavy political agenda 2014. and consecutive elections throughout the year. A deal volume of c. US$1.8 billion (only c. 11% of the annual deal volume) was realized through the sale of a few power generation assets (1 thermal power plant and 5 hydroelectric power plants) and a mine site to Turkish investors. Likewise, the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (SDIF) postponed a couple of tenders such as Adabank and Olay Medya to 2016. Privatizations (*) PrivatizationsPrivatizations 30 2630 26 8 8 22 22 13 13 13 13 7 740% 40% 38% 38% 35% 35% 25 25 33% 33% 22,0 22,0 30% 30% 29% 29% 20 20 18,0 18,0 17,3 17,3 17,5 17,5 25% 25% 16,4 16,4 15,0 15,0 15 15 20% 20% 17% 17% 15% (US$ billion)(US$ 15% (US$ billion)(US$ 10 10 11% 6,4 6,6 6,6 11% 10% 6,4 5,9 5,9 10% 5 5 7% 7% 2,9 2,9 5% 5% 1,8 1,8 1,0 1,0 0 0 0% 0% 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 Total DealTotal Value Deal ValuePrivatizationsPrivatizationsRatio to TotalRatio Deal to Total Value Deal (%) Value Deal(%) Number (*) Figures above do not include SDIF sales 6 Privatizations Deal Value Acquirer Origin Target Sector (US$ million) 1 Konya Şeker Turkey Soma B Thermal Power Plant Energy 686 2 Kolin İnşaat Turkey Doğankent, Kürtün ve Torul HEPPs Energy 418 3 İçtaş Hidroelektrik ve Termik Enerji Üretim Turkey Kadıncık 1 HEPP, Kadıncık 2 HEPP Energy 301 4 Gama Enerji Turkey Karacaören 1 HEPP, Karacaören 2 HEPP Energy 179 5 Kibar Holding Turkey Kepez 2 HEPP, Manavgat HEPP Energy 128 6 Eti Alüminyum A.Ş.
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