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Taiwan Prospers, China Ratchets up Coercion, and Us Support Remains “Rock-Solid”

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Taiwan Prospers, China Ratchets up Coercion, and Us Support Remains “Rock-Solid” CHINA- TAIWAN RELATIONS TAIWAN PROSPERS, CHINA RATCHETS UP COERCION, AND US SUPPORT REMAINS “ROCK-SOLID” DAVID J. KEEGAN, JOHNS HOPKINS SCHOOL OF ADVANCED INTERNATIONAL STUDIES KYLE CHURCHMAN, JOHNS HOPKINS SCHOOL OF ADVANCED INTERNATIONAL STUDIES For the leadership of Taiwan, the significance for Taiwan’s relationships with the US and China of the end of the Trump administration and the arrival of the Biden administration formed the defining concern as 2021 began. Taiwan welcomed two steps that the Trump administration took in its waning days: announcing a visit to Taiwan by the US ambassador to the UN (even though it was later cancelled) and repudiating the longstanding Taiwan Contact Guidelines, which was widely seen in Taiwan as overly restrictive. Taiwan’s anxieties regarding the Biden administration were quickly allayed, as incoming senior officials repeatedly called US support for Taiwan “rock solid” and issued new far less restrictive Guidelines. Taiwan also benefited from unusually direct expressions of support from Japan and other international partners. This article is extracted from Comparative Connections: A Triannual E-Journal of Bilateral Relations in the Indo-Pacific, Vol. 23, No. 1, May 2021. Preferred citation: David J. Keegan and Kyle Churchman, “China-Taiwan Relations: Taiwan Prospers, China Ratchets Up Coercion, and US Support Remains ‘Rock-solid,’” Comparative Connections, Vol. 23, No. 1, pp 77-88. CHINA- T AIWAN RELATIONS | M AY 202 1 77 Taiwan’s economy continued to boom despite On March 5, Premier Li Keqiang addressed the pandemic, but its dominance in high-end cross-Strait relations in his work report to computer chip production became the subject of China’s National People’s Congress, using worries by US officials and industry groups over language familiar from previous work reports. supply chain security. China’s military activities He promised that China would remain near Taiwan included two days of especially committed to the one-China Principle and the intense activity, which were clearly intended to 1992 Consensus and “to promoting the peaceful signal its displeasure with the Biden development of relations across the Taiwan administration’s support for Taiwan. China also Strait and China’s reunification.” China, he banned the import of Taiwanese meat and warned, would resolutely deter any Taiwan pineapples and announced preferential activity that promoted independence yet treatment for Taiwan investors in mainland encouraged Taiwan compatriots to benefit from agriculture, all clearly targeted at disrupting China’s economic growth. There was none of the support for Taiwan’s ruling Democratic tension around this work report that had Progressive Party and President Tsai Ing-wen occurred when the 2020 work report, which was among its rural political base. Both strategies presented shortly after Tsai’s second appeared more likely to backfire than not. inauguration, reportedly omitted reference to Increasing tensions between the US and China, peaceful reunification. These three statements especially over Taiwan, have led to concerns on from the mainland and one from Taiwan seemed all sides that a diplomatic or military to signal a relatively moderate tone on both confrontation may be growing more likely. sides and suggested that both would continue their policy approach from 2020. Low-key Statements Begin the Cross-Strait Year The events of January through April offered a picture of considerably sharper confrontation. 2021 dawned in China and Taiwan with many An early point of contention was another in the recalling the exchange of statements in January series of efforts from Taiwan to find a formula 2019 between People’s Republic of China (PRC) to bridge differences with the mainland over the President Xi Jinping, calling for movement “1992 Consensus” in order to resume cross- toward unification, and Tsai Ing-wen, president Strait dialogue that has been frozen by Beijing of the Republic of China, staunchly defending since Tsai first took office in 2016. Chiu Tai-san, Taiwan’s separate identity. That exchange newly appointed as minister of Taiwan’s helped to reverse Tsai’s lagging political Mainland Affairs Council, proposed on March 18 fortunes and led to her reelection on Jan. 11, that Taiwan and the mainland could renew their 2020. This year, Xi’s New Year statement did not dialogue with “constructive ambiguity,” mention Taiwan. “finding the greatest common denominator” between the two sides. Chiu was clearly Zhang Zhijun, president of the Association for proposing that the two sides revisit the “1992 Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS)— Consensus” without insisting that it reflected China’s supposedly unofficial interlocutor with China’s “one-China Principle.” Even if Chiu Taiwan—issued a statement describing the intended this to be an olive branch, no one cross-Strait situation as “severe and complex,” expected it to succeed, and China’s Taiwan saying that “the deadlock between the two sides Affairs Office promptly rejected it. of the strait is difficult to resolve,” but expressing confidence that these difficulties Outgoing, Incoming Administrations Raise “cannot change the melody of the era of Taiwan’s Stature in Washington national rejuvenation.” In her new year’s statement, President Tsai offered a very On Jan. 6, the State Department announced that different view, asserting that the actions of US Ambassador to the United Nations, Kelly People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft and Craft, would visit Taiwan, only to cancel the visit naval vessels had undermined cross-Strait the following week. On Jan. 9, then Secretary of relations, but promising that Taiwan would State Michael Pompeo cancelled the State “uphold our principles and not act rashly” [and] Department’s Guidance for US official contacts “facilitate meaningful dialogue under the with Taiwan, reissued annually since at least the principles of parity and dignity” as long as the mid-1980s, which had helped ensure that the US Beijing was sincere. did not treat Taiwan as a country with which the United States had diplomatic relations, and that 78 M AY 202 1 | CHINA- TAIWAN RELATIONS had been criticized in Taiwan as demeaning. permitted to attend gatherings at Taiwan’s Twin Both of the announcements led to strong Oaks estate in Washington, except at Taiwan’s denunciations from Beijing, but were welcomed Double Ten national day. The Biden official said enthusiastically in Taipei. Both were interpreted “both sides” should be happy with the new as Pompeo’s efforts to force the incoming Biden guidance—Beijing because some “guardrails” administration to continue a confrontational remained in place and Taipei because several posture against China and in support of Taiwan. restrictions had been lifted. The official State How would the Biden administration respond? Department press release said the liberalized Biden’s nominees for secretary of State and guidelines are aimed at encouraging greater US Defense both assured senators at their government engagement with Taiwan—an confirmation hearings that US support for “important economic and security partner”— Taiwan was “rock solid.” Tsai, Foreign Minister but it also underscored the unofficial nature of Joseph Wu, and Taiwan’s Representative in US-Taiwan relations. Evidence of the Biden Washington, Bi-khim Hsiao, all enthusiastically administration approach to contacts with welcomed these confirmations that Taiwan’s Taiwan appeared even before the State relationship with the US would be secure under Department’s April 9 announcement. Most the Biden administration. Earlier anxiety notably, the US ambassador to Palau seemed to vanish. accompanied the president of Palau during his visit to Taiwan in late March, marking the first visit to Taiwan by a sitting US ambassador since 1979. Earlier in the month, the chargé (acting ambassador) to Japan invited his Taiwan counterpart in Tokyo, Frank Hsieh, to the official residence of the US ambassador. Figure 2 Frank Hsieh meeting with the acting U.S. ambassador in Tokyo. Photo: Twitter/@USAmbJapan A few months into office, the Biden administration is actively rallying US allies against the PRC. On a visit to Tokyo in March for the Security Consultative Committee meeting, the so-called “two-plus-two,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Figure 1 Bi-khim Hsiao posing at the Biden inauguration Lloyd Austin issued a joint press statement with from the website of the Taiwan DC office. Photo: TECRO their Japanese counterparts on the US–Japan alliance, in which the four ministers The Biden State Department issued new Taiwan underscored the importance of cross-Strait Contact Guidelines on April 9 that are less peace and stability. The following month, restrictive than those Pompeo cancelled. The President Joe Biden welcomed Japan’s Prime Financial Times, citing an unnamed Biden Minister Suga Yoshihide to the White House for administration official, said the new guidance his first in-person meeting with a foreign now allows US officials to regularly meet Taiwan leader. Biden and Suga issued a joint statement counterparts in US federal government on a US–Japan partnership for a “new era,” buildings and at Taiwan’s de facto embassies and which, like the “two-plus-two,” underscored consulates overseas. US officials are also now the importance of cross-Strait peace and CHINA- TAIWAN RELATIONS | M AY 202 1 79 stability. This addition came as a surprise to when sovereignty is violated in waters claimed some observers who believed Suga might
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