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IASPEI National Report Russia 2007-2010 RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES NATIONAL GEOPHYSICAL COMMITTEE VTWWNOWPF FPFJKRN SFYP SF\NTSFQbSaOIKTZNMN]KWPNOPTRNXKX NATIONAL SEISMOLOGICAL REVIEW OF RUSSIA for the International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics 2007–2010 SF\NTSFQbSaOWKOWRTQTIN]KWPNO TGMTV VTWWNN R M R 2007–2010 R 2011 Moscow Presented to the XXV General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics PXXV I R RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES National Geophysical Committee NATIONAL SEISMOLOGICAL REVIEW OF RUSSIA for the International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics 20072010 Presented to the XXV General Assembly of the IUGG 2011 Moscow In the National Seismological Review major results are given of research conducted by Russian scientists in 2007-2010 on the topics of the International Association of Seismology and the Physics of the Earth’s Interior (IASPEI) of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG). The structure of seismic observation stations network of the Russian Federation is given and its prospects are outlined in the report. The results of research in strong and perceptible earthquakes in Russia in 2007-2010 are presented as well as the results obtained in seismic danger and risk assessment, the physics of seismic process, and earthquake prediction. Major achievements in the physics of the Earth, geodynamics, and physical properties of geomaterial are featured. Information on constructing geoinformation systems in geophysics, and on pit seismicity monitoring is given. The results of research in artificial intelligence application in geophysics are. All the required references are given. Author’s Team (in alphabetical order) Adushkin V. V. Kozhevnikov V. M. Shaumyan A. V. Agayan S. M. Kozyrev A. A. Shulakov D. Y. Arefiev S. S. Lukhnev A. V. Sidorov R. Bogoutdinov S. R. Malovichko A. A. Smol’yaninova E. I. Butyrin P. G. Malovichko D. A. Sobolev G. A. Diament M. Matsiyevsky S. A. Solovei O. A. Dyagilev R. A. Mikhailov V. O. Soloviev A. A. Fedotova Yu. V. Mordvinova V. V. Starovoit O. E. Frolova N. I. Nazaryan A. N. Timoshkina E. P. Gitis V. G. Nikolaev A. V. Treussov A.V. Gorbatikov A. V. Panin V. I. Trubitsyn V. P. Gvishiani A. D. Pavlyukova E. R. Turuntaev S. B. Kireenkova S. M. Ponomarev A. V. Ulomov V. I. Kiseleva E. A. Rogozhin E. A. Usoltseva O. A. Klyuchevskii A. V. Saltykov V. A. Vinnik L. P. Kocharyan G. G. Sanina I. A. Zavyalov A.D. Kosarev G. L. Sankov V. A. Kossobokov V. G. Shapiro N. Editorial Board A.O.Gliko (Chief Editor), A.D.Zavyalov (Deputy Chief Editor), A.A.Malovichko, G.A.Sobolev, V.I.Ulomov. 0 2011 Geophysical Center RAS DOI: 10.2205/2011-IUGG-NRR2007-2010 ISBN: 978-5-904509-03-3 4 Contents INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................................................. 6 1. THE SYSTEM OF SEISMIC OBSERVATIONS IN RUSSIA ...................................................................................... 6 1.1. SEISMIC OBSERVATION NETWORK IN RUSSIA IN 2007-2010 .......................................................................................... 6 1.2. ASTATISTICAL ESTIMATE OF SEISMICITY LEVEL:THE METHOD AND RESULTS OF APPLICATION TO KAMCHATKA ... 10 1.3. EQUIPMENT DEVELOPED BY THE INSTITUTE OF PHYSICS OF THE EARTH RAS ............................................................. 13 1.4. ACTUAL METHODS AND TOOLS FOR GEO-ECOLOGICAL MONITORING ........................................................................ 17 2. THE STRONG EARTHQUAKES IN THE TERRITORY OF RUSSIA IN 2007-2010 AND THEIR SEISMOTECTONICS ......................................................................................................................................................... 21 3. STRUCTURAL SEISMOLOGY OF THE EARTH’S INTERIOR ............................................................................ 27 3.1. DEVELOPMENTS IN THE STUDIES OF THE EARTH WITH RECEIVER FUNCTIONS ............................................................. 27 3.2. THE PRACTICE OF APPLICATION OF THE RECEIVER FUNCTIONS METHOD TO THE INTERNATIONAL TELESEISMIC EXPERIMENTS DATA IN THE CENTRAL ASIA ....................................................................................................................... 29 3.3. STUDIES OF THE LITHOSPHERIC STRUCTURE BY SEISMIC TOMOGRAPHY METHODS ................................................... 37 3.4. TELESEIMIC TOMOGRAPHY AT GEO TRANSECTS IN CENTRAL ASIA ............................................................................. 40 3.5. THE THREE-DIMENSIONAL VELOCITY STRUCTURE OF UPPER MANTLE BENEATH CENTRAL ASIA FROM DISPERSION OF RAYLEIGH WAVE PHASE VELOCITIES .................................................................................................................................. 45 3.6. DEVELOPING OF MICROSEISMIC SOUNDING METHOD ................................................................................................. 50 4. SEISMOGEODYNAMICS ............................................................................................................................................. 56 4.1. SEISMOGEODYNAMICS AND SEISMIC HAZARD PREDICTION .......................................................................................... 56 4.2. SEISMO-GEODYNAMIC APPLICATIONS OF SATELLITE DATA ......................................................................................... 61 4.3. INVESTIGATIONS OF PRESENT-DAY CRUSTAL MOVEMENTS AND DEFORMATIONS OF CENTRAL ASIA USING GPS GEODESY ............................................................................................................................................................................ 66 5. SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION 2007-2010 ............. 75 6. PHYSICS OF SEISMIC PROCESS AND EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION ............................................................. 91 6.1. EARTHQUAKE PHYSICS AND PRECURSORS ................................................................................................................... 91 6.2. MECHANICS OF TRIGGERING INSTABILITY IN GEOSYSTEMS ......................................................................................... 98 6.3. INTERMEDIATE-TERM PREDICTION OF THE WORLD LARGEST EARTHQUAKES IN REAL-TIME ...................................... 102 6.4. AN “UMBILIC” CATASTROPHE AS A MODEL OF ROCK FAILURE IN EARTHQUAKES ...................................................... 107 7. INDUCED SEISMICITY AND ITS MONITORING ................................................................................................. 114 7.1. INDUCED SEISMIC ACTIVITY.THE EFFECT OF PRODUCTION INDUCED FACTORS ON FINE SEISMICITY STRUCTURE ...... 114 7.2. SEISMIC MONITORING OF LARGE-SCALE KARST PROCESSES IN A POTASH MINE ......................................................... 120 7.3. MINING-INDUCED SEISMICITY MONITORING IN THE KOLA PENINSULA ...................................................................... 125 7.4. INDUCED PROCESSES IN THE EARTH CRUST ............................................................................................................... 133 8. NANOCRYSTALS IN GEOMATERIALS (EXPERIMENTAL WORKS OF RUSSIAN SCIENTISTS IN 2007- 2010) .................................................................................................................................................................................... 142 9. MODELING OF GEODYNAMIC PROCESSES ....................................................................................................... 147 9.1. MECHANICAL AND THERMAL EFFECTS OF FLOATING CONTINENTS ON THE GLOBAL MANTLE CONVECTION .............. 147 9.2. A NUMERICAL EXPERIMENT REPRODUCING CONVECTION IN THE MANTLE WITH THE GENERATION AND EVOLUTION OF LITHOSPHERIC PLATES ...................................................................................................................................................... 150 10. PATTERN RECOGNITION TECHNIQUES IN GEOPHYSICS .......................................................................... 152 11. NETWORK GEOINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY FOR RESEARCH OF SPATIO-TEMPORAL SEISMO- TECTONIC PROCESSES ................................................................................................................................................ 167 5 Introduction A. D. Zavyalov, [email protected]. National Geophysical Committee RAS. Schmidt Institute of the Physics of the Earth RAS. B. Gruzinskaya, 10, Moscow, 123995, GSP-5, Russia. This report submitted to the International Association of Seismology and the Physics of the Earth’s Interior (IASPEI) of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) contains results obtained by Russian geophysicists in 2003-2006. In the report prepared for the XXV General Assembly of IUGG (Australia, Melbourne, June 28 – July 7, 2011), the results are briefly outlined of basic research in seismology, geodynamics, in the studies of physical properties of rocks as well as in some other directions. The period from 2007 to 2010 was still difficult for Russian geophysics. Owing to economic reasons scientific career is Russia is still believed to be lacking in prestige. Thus recruiting younger scientists for fundamental research in geophysics actually failed. Economic difficulties were redoubled by difficulties arising from ongoing reorganization of the Russian Academy of
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