Poland Political Briefing: Historical Anniversaries, the Presidential Elections, Changes in the Judiciary Joanna Ciesielska-Klikowska

ISSN: 2560-1601

Vol. 25, No. 1 (PL)

Jan 2020

Poland political briefing: Historical anniversaries, the presidential elections, changes in the judiciary Joanna Ciesielska-Klikowska

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Historical anniversaries, the presidential elections, changes in the judiciary

In 2020, Polish domestic policy will look forward to the events, that have already defined it throughout the whole 2019 – the historical anniversaries, the elections and changes in the judiciary system. After the voting to the European Parliament in May 2019, and elections to the Polish parliament in October 2019, further elections are planned for spring this year – namely the presidential elections, the result of which will be either the continuation of Andrzej Duda’s presidency, or a change in this position. The decision of the citizens in this matter will define political relations at the highest level and will lead to consolidation or changes in current political discourse. Yet, while Andrzej Duda seems to be a safe candidate, several sharp opponents will try to take his victory away.

Upcoming anniversaries of historical events Without a doubt the year 2020 will bring many vital events - first of all those of an anniversary nature. They will define the topics in political debates and give the authorities the opportunity to present Poland’s history - including the latest one - on the international arena. Historical anniversaries are currently one of the most significant dates to be found in the state calendar, and the current conservative government of Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość, PiS), as well as the President of the Republic of Poland Andrzej Duda, will definitely celebrate events that influenced the fate of Poland and the world. Historical policy is a sort of “apple of the eye” of the current establishment, so it is impossible not to mention the key anniversaries that will be fêted in 2020.

One of the crucial will be the 100th anniversary of the so called Poland’s Wedding to the Sea, which was a ceremony meant to symbolize restored Polish access to the Baltic Sea, that was lost in the year 1793 by the Partitions of Poland. On February 8, 2020, the celebration of regaining access to the sea is planned in the city of Puck on the Baltic Sea.

Highly important date is the 10th anniversary of the Smolensk tragedy of April 10, 2010, when as a result of the crash of the presidential plane flying to Russia, 96 people were killed. Among them were the President of Poland Lech Kaczyński with his wife Maria Kaczyńska, the last President of the Republic of Poland in exile Ryszard Kaczorowski, deputy Marshals of the

Sejm and Senate, a group of 18 parliamentarians, commanders of all types of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Poland, employees of the Chancellery of the President, heads of state institutions, clergy, representatives of ministries, representatives of veterans’ and social organizations as well as accompanying persons – all of them constituting the Polish delegation for celebrations related to the 70th anniversary of the Katyn Massacre, as well as the crew of the aircraft. The memory of this tragic event - all the more so that this year the anniversary will take place just before Easter holidays - will certainly have a unique character and will enter into the overall political discourse.

The last of significant anniversaries will take place in August, and will be associated with the celebration of the 100th anniversary of the Warsaw Battle. A century ago, on the outskirts of Warsaw on August 13-15, 1920, the decisive battle of the Polish-Bolshevik war took place. Determined by the so called “miracle on the river Vistula” and considered as the 18th groundbreaking battle in world history, it decided about Poland’s independence and saved Europe from Bolshevism.

Undoubtedly, these three events - both joyful and extremely sad - will affect the political debates, the topics taken and the concepts presented. They will also require extraordinary gentleness in conducting discourse - above all, the memory of the Smolensk catastrophe is still a very painful wound.

Presidential elections - dates, candidates and their chances The planned celebrations will also set the tone for the presidential campaign, which will officially start in February. According to the Polish political system, in which the head of state is elected by the general election, the candidate who receives more than 50% of the valid votes wins the presidential race. If none of the candidates obtains the required majority, 14 days later the second round of elections is held, to which two candidates with the best results go. In the second round, the candidate with more votes wins the battle. The date of the election is set for May 10, eventual second round for May 24, 2020.

Considering the candidates for the post of President, a very interesting, perhaps even surprising campaign can be expected. The current President Andrzej Duda enjoys great public trust and it can be assumed that he will hold this position for the next five years - current polls show that he can win the elections even in the first round. In January 2020 polls he had between 41% and 46% support.

In addition to the incumbent President, other candidates will also be seeking the leadership of the country. One of the most difficult opponents will certainly be the former Sejm Deputy Marshal, Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska, from the Civic Platform (Platforma Obywatelska, PO). Kidawa-Błońska is a politician with many years of experience, a person liked and respected. Her conciliatory character is often emphasized, what indicates that she will be able to bring together various political opponents. On the other hand, it is emphasized that she has no expressive character, she lacks charisma and the leader gene. The latest polls give her support at the level of 20-23%.

Polish People’s Party (Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe, PSL) will issue as its candidate the head of this party, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz. This politician is known and liked, but not enough expressive towards other politicians – his support is around 8-9%, so it can be assumed that he will not enter the eventual second round of elections.

The candidate of the leftist parties (three left-wing parties coalition - Spring, SLD and the Left Together) will be Robert Biedroń, who is former president of the city of Słupsk, a well- known local government official, and LGBT activist. Biedroń currently is a member of the European Parliament and enjoys high recognition, but he strongly polarize society as well, which means that support for him is low - currently about 7-8%.

Finally, the ultra-right wing camp, the Confederation of Freedom and Independence (Konfederacja Wolność i Niepodległość), issued a young, though very active since 2005 politician as its candidate, namely Krzysztof Bosak. Support for him is around 3%, therefore his chances are small. But, perhaps this candidate will tell his constituents to pass their votes to Andrzej Duda in the eventual second round (this practice is often used in the Polish political system). Therefore, votes cast for Bosak do not have to be lost despite his defeat.

Yet, the upcoming campaign may also take on non-party blushes. A well-known and respected journalist, publicist, book author and social activist, Szymon Hołownia, announced his intention to run for the office of the President. For everyone in Poland, including insightful observers of the Polish political scene, the information about his candidacy was quite a surprise. Hołownia is widely known to the public as the witty host of the TV show “Poland’s Got Talent”, he is also a well-known Catholic journalist who presents balanced opinions on the role of the Church in social and political life. In his political program Hołownia identified as priority issues

3 the ones related to ecology and the separation of Church and state. According to the latest surveys, he enjoys varied support of 8%-20% of respondents, but may become the “dark horse” of the presidential race as a candidate independent of any party.

Changes in the judiciary The issue of presidential elections is also closely related to other important events, namely subsequent changes in the judicial system. In addition to the disciplinary act on judges, which was preceded in the Sejm since December 2019, the next step planned for 2020 will be the flattening of the court structure - by liquidating appeals or district courts - and introducing a uniform position of a judge. The first steps in this matter have already been made by introducing the so-called horizontal complaints.

Currently, the Ministry of Justice is working on a project that would lead to flattening of the court structure and introduce a uniform judicial position. Deputy Minister Łukasz Piebiak emphasizes that this could be an effective way of eliminating vacancies, and for shortening the excessive length of proceedings. The idea of the Ministry is that if all judges are judges of common courts, they can be flexibly assigned to those courts (in a given district) where the needs are greatest. This should not affect the financial conditions of work, because these are to remain uniform.

Lawyers do not hide their fear of such solutions. In their view, this direction of reform may lead to further purge among judges and greater control over them. If the proposed changes are actually introduced, one can expect another wave of protests from the legal circles in Poland, which is already in the sphere of huge interest in society, but also international circles, including the European Union. These changes will also undoubtedly affect the entire political discourse in Poland, since it has been an extremely hot topic for two years. It can be assumed that around it, focus will be laid both by the activities of the government and the President (who signs new laws) and by the activities of the opposition, which will use this topic politically. Changes in the judiciary are already one of the crucial subjects in the presidential campaign.

Conclusions The coming year will bring many interesting events and important historical anniversaries. Poland will celebrate the anniversary of the Wedding to the Sea and the victory in the Battle of Warsaw. At the same time, the country will also commemorate the victims of the Smolensk catastrophe of 2010, which completely changed the face of Polish politics. It is likely that the issue of settling those responsible for this catastrophe will return in the presidential campaign. It is difficult to assess today to what extent the memory of former President Lech Kaczyński and the most important people in the country will dominate the political discourse. Undoubtedly, Andrzej Duda will refer to his legacy, while the other candidates will probably stand in opposition, questioning the achievements of the predecessors and all the activity of the current ruling camp, including implemented and discussed changes in the judiciary. The campaign will certainly bring remarkable ideas, controversial promises and innovative solutions, and will dominate the debate in Polish politics in the coming months.