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Myanmar Capital Goods Sector Myanmar Industrials 16 November 2016 Myanmar Capital Goods Sector Set to fly higher Myanmar’s growth prospects are looking up, with a new democratic government and the implementation of reformative policy Serge Pun’s “banks to burgers” business portfolio seen as best-in- class assets for investors now eyeing Myanmar exposure Jame Osman (65) 6321 3092 We initiate coverage of First Myanmar Investment and affiliated Yoma [email protected] Strategic Holdings with Buy (1) ratings Shane Goh (65) 6499 6546 [email protected] See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 106 Myanmar Industrials 16 November 2016 Myanmar Capital Goods Sector Set to fly higher Myanmar’s growth prospects are looking up, with a new democratic government and the implementation of reformative policy Serge Pun’s “banks to burgers” business portfolio seen as best-in- class assets for investors now eyeing Myanmar exposure Jame Osman (65) 6321 3092 We initiate coverage of First Myanmar Investment and affiliated Yoma [email protected] Strategic Holdings with Buy (1) ratings Shane Goh (65) 6499 6546 [email protected] What's new: Myanmar has seen big changes since the West lifted Key stock calls sanctions in 2012, most notably in its telecoms and property sectors, and New Prev. we believe the transition of power to a new democratic government will First Myanmar Investment (FMI) Rating Buy catalyse the next leg of growth and take the country and its leading Target 22,500.00 companies to new heights. Upside p 40.6% Yoma Strategic (YOMA SP) The recent implementation of reform policies such as the Myanmar Rating Buy Investment Law and Financial Institutions Law indicates the government is Target 0.730 Upside p 28.1% taking a balanced approach — welcoming foreign investment while being mindful of the interests of local businesses. In our view, further clarity in the Source: Daiwa forecasts form of by-laws that are likely to be proposed in the near term will compel businesses now waiting on the sidelines to head into Myanmar. For investors seeking exposure to Myanmar today, we believe Serge Pun’s listed business portfolio features best-in-class assets in a wide range of sectors, making them proxies for the broader growth story. In this report, we highlight First Myanmar Investment (FMI) and affiliated Yoma Strategic Holdings, home-grown Myanmar companies respectively listed in Yangon and Singapore. Both look well placed relative to local peers in terms of operational execution as well as corporate governance – the latter a crucial trait for international investors keen to navigate the complex business landscape in Myanmar. While FMI is off limits to foreign investors for now, our report serves as an introduction to the company and should help investors better understand Yoma given the 2 companies’ close ties. Catalysts: We highlight 3 sector-level catalysts to watch for: 1) clarity on further regulatory reform, in particular any moves favouring liberalisation of the banking sector (eg, market-driven interest rates, expansion of uncollateralised lending) and foreign ownership of investment property, 2) signs of greater political stability and effective enforcement of a transparent judicial system, and 3) an acceleration in foreign direct investment flows. What we recommend: We initiate on First Myanmar Investment (FMI) with a Buy (1) call and 12-month SOTP-based TP of MMK22,500, and on Yoma Strategic Holdings (YSH) with a Buy (1) rating and SOTP-based TP of SGD0.73. Given our expectation of strong earnings growth for both companies (we forecast a net profit CAGR of 140% for FMI and PBT CAGR of 22% for YSH over FY16-19), valuations appear attractive, with FMI and YSH trading at FY18E PERs of 19.6x and 23.3x, respectively. How we differ: We are the first in the market to take a top-down and bottom-up view of Serge Pun’s listed entities and the relationship between them. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 106 Myanmar Capital Goods Sector: 16 November 2016 Sector stocks: key indicators EPS (local curr.) Share Rating Target price (local curr.) FY1 FY2 Company Name Stock code Price New Prev. New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg First Myanmar Investment FMI 16,000.00 Buy 22,500.00 117.058 816.259 Yoma Strategic YOMA SP 0.570 Buy 0.730 0.031 0.024 Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts Progress and timeline of key regulations for FMI (see Appendix 1 for further details) Date Description Myanmar Investment Law (MIL) Jun-16 Formation of a new Myanmar Investment Commission (MIC) Sep-16 Draft of new MIL submitted to Parliament Oct-16 MIL was passed by the House of Nationalities (Upper House) on 5 October after passing through the House of Representatives (Lower House) the previous week Companies Act 2013 A Companies Act begins to be drafted by the government with assistance from Asian Development Bank Jun-15 Revised first draft published Oct-16 Draft law is “still in the pipeline for inter-ministerial review” 1Q17 Expected to be submitted to Parliament for approval Financial Institutions Law (FIL) 2013 New FIL drafted with the assistance of the World Bank Jan-16 New FIL successfully passed in Parliament Condominium Law Jan-16 Law passed by Myanmar's Union Parliament May-16 Yangon City Development Committee (YCDC) issued city-wide suspension on construction of high-rise residential buildings for inspections Nov-16 YCDC finished inspections Dec-16 By-laws expected to be released Source: compiled by Daiwa Myanmar: key demographic facts Description Myanmar Thailand Vietnam Area (km2) 676,578 513,120 332,698 Population (m) 51.5 68.0 91.7 Population density (per km2) 76 132 276 Population under 35 (%) 74% 45% 56% GDP (PPP) (USD bn) 270.0 1,152.0 593.5 GDP per capita (USD) 5,207 16,706 6,414 Urban population (%) 30% 49% 33% Infrastructure Electricity consumption (kWh) 221.5 2,500.7 1,133.2 Roadways (km) 34,377 180,053 206,633 Railway length (km) 6,000 4,071 3,147 Healthcare Health Expenditure: Total: % of GDP 2.3 6.5 7.1 Health Expenditure: Private: % of GDP 1.2 0.9 3.2 Health Expenditure: Public: % of GDP 1.0 5.6 3.8 Health Expenditure per Capita (USD) 20.3 360.4 142.4 Health Expenditure per Capita: PPP: 2011 Price (USD) 103.5 950.1 390.5 Physicians: per 1000 People 0.6 0.4 1.2 Hospital Beds: per 1000 People 0.6 2.1 2.0 Banking Domestic credit to private sector by banks (% of GDP) 17.4% 117.2% 111.9% Automated teller machines (ATMs) (per 100,000 adults) 1.6 111.9 23.6 Commercial bank branches (per 100,000 adults) 3.1 12.7 3.8 Gross savings (% of GDP)* 26.7% 28.0% 30.0% Deposit interest rate 8.0% 1.4% 4.7% Lending interest rate 13.0% 6.6% 7.1% Sovereign credit rating (Moody's)** Unrated Baa1 B1 Source: MNPED, CEIC, World Bank, CIA World Factbook Note: *data unavailable for Myanmar, calculated using savings deposits data disclosed by CBM divided by GDP (2014); **Myanmar’s sovereign credit has yet to be rated by any rating agency 3 Myanmar Capital Goods Sector: 16 November 2016 Table of contents Myanmar: set to fly higher ....................................................................................... 5 The path to political reform ................................................................................................5 Approval of new MIL could spur FDI ..................................................................................7 Regulatory environment: upheaval done, with steady changes to come ............................9 Who’s who: family-owned conglomerates in Myanmar ..................................................... 11 Company Section First Myanmar Investment ............................................................................................... 13 Yoma Strategic ................................................................................................................ 57 4 Myanmar Capital Goods Sector: 16 November 2016 Myanmar: set to fly higher The path to political reform Myanmar’s opening up to the world is rooted in the political reform process which began in 2011, effectively putting to rest 50 years of military rule and geo-economic isolation. The sudden about-turn was believed to have been initiated by then General Than Shwe (who governed the country over 1992 to March 2011) who had reportedly been keen to avoid an ‘Arab Spring’-like scenario during that period. The speed with which Myanmar has since introduced reforms cannot be understated, especially when one considers the almost ‘hermit’-like status of the country previously. In the span of less than a year, the regime dissolved the military government in March 2011 and installed a nominally civilian government presided over by President Thein Sein. At the same time, it proceeded to release more than 600 political prisoners, one of whom included the current National League for Democracy’s (NLD) leader, Aung San Suu Kyi. On 1 April 2012, the NLD successfully contested in the country’s first by-elections, winning 43 of 44 seats (37 of the 440 seats in the Lower House and 6 of the 224 seats in the Upper House), culminating in Suu Kyi’s election to Parliament. Myanmar: key political milestones Year Description 1886-1948 Under British colonial rule 1948-1962 Independent republic named the Union of Burma 1962 (til 2011) Military regime; socialist constitution adopted 1988 8888 Uprising' protests over economic management and political oppression; military government finalised plans for elections to be held on 31 May 1989 1990 First free election in 30 years held and won by the National League for Democracy; military government refuses to hand over control 1997 Myanmar joins ASEAN 2007 Anti-government protests held, dubbed the "Saffron Revolution" 2010 Elections held - Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), the military's proxy, claims resounding victory but opposition groups allege widespread fraud 2011 Military government is dissolved in Mar 2011.
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