DOCSLIB.ORG

Next Generation Missile Defense Targets and Threats

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Next Generation Missile Defense Targets and Threats Next Generation Missile Defense Targets and Threats Mark A. Clark Director Missile and Space Intelligence Center August 8th: On This Date in History… Montenegro declares war on Germany Great Britain and Russia sign trade agreement President Truman signs the United Nations Charter USSR establishes a communist government in North Korea The U.S. and South Korea initiate a mutual security pact U.N. Secretary-General announces a cease-fire between Iran and Iraq The “Good ‘ole Days” ??? 21st Century Ballistic Missiles • Can reach targets inaccessible to aircraft • Fastest launch-to-target stand-off weapons • Prestige, profit, coercion, deterrence, and warfighting roles • Traditional role of long-range missiles is nuclear deterrence • Remains a major role; expanding to more countries • Improved guidance allows effective use in conventional roles • Counter adversary airpower and deny regional access • Ballistic missiles increasingly “non-ballistic” • Hypersonic glide vehicles • Maneuvering reentry vehicles • The term “ballistic” may go away Hierarchy of Needs from the Perspective of a Ballistic Missile Designer Survivability (Countermeasures) Effectiveness (Warhead Effects) Accuracy Range Proliferation of SCUD Missiles and Technology Armenia Vietnam UAE SCUD B SCUD B Iraq Belarus SCUD B Kazakhstan Al Hussein Ukraine Afghanistan SCUD B SCUD B North Korea No Dong SCUD C USSR SCUD B Yemen SCUD B Burkan 1950s Syria Egypt SCUD B SCUD B SCUD C Iran SCUD B Libya Pakistan Shahab 1/2/3 Ghauri Qiam-1 SCUD B Recent Ballistic Missile Proliferation Iranian Materiel Display at Joint Base Anacostia-Bolling Irrefutable evidence that Iran provided ballistic missiles and other weapons to Yemen Russia • Maintains a large land and sea based missile force • Large ballistic missile modernization investment • New START constrained force –1,550 warheads • Several new longer-range missiles in development Russia • Kinzhal “Dagger” air-launched ballistic missile (ALBM) launched from MiG-31 China • ICBM force growing • Mobility, survivability, BMD countermeasures • New, highly accurate missiles with conventional warfighting roles Iran • Improving capabilities • Accuracy, payloads, range • Placed satellites in orbit • Experience applicable to ICBM development North Korea •Deterrence, warfighting, prestige, profit •Multiple recent IRBM and ICBM launches •Developing more solid propellant ballistic missiles •No missile tests since Nov ‘17 Cruise/Hypersonic Cruise Missiles Cruise missiles Russian Kh-101 • Tech proliferation despite international control efforts • Anti-ship Cruise Missile (ASCM) – Naval concern, influence shipping lanes, threaten carriers – Pre-launch: targeting from aircraft/OTH sensor data – Post-launch: onboard seeker acquires & guides to target – Faster, stealthier, & more accurate than predecessors • Land-attack Cruise Missile (LACM) –Pre-programmed & autonomous –INS paired w/ SATNAV, contour-matching radar, or optical- scene-matching systems –Low altitudes, treated with RCS/IR signature reducing materials –New propulsion, navigation, & seeker technologies improve long-range accuracy & lethality Chinese Cruise Missile Hypersonic cruise missiles Brahmos-II • India and Russia developing Brahmos-II • 165 NM range • Mach 7 speed • Scramjet engine propulsion Higher Technology Means More Effective: Or Does It??? Effectiveness Level of Technology While designing against modern, technically sophisticated threats, we must also be prepared to engage older, unsophisticated threats. Dinosaurs Have Not Stopped Roaming the Earth The Challenge for the Missile Defense Community • Be prepared to engage and defeat the technologically advanced threats being developed by our adversaries in the 21st century ̶ Numerous ̶ Fast-paced ̶ Technically Challenging • Continue to ensure U.S. and Allied defenses are effective against 50+ year old systems, sometimes with modern upgrades Intelligence support is more important than ever! 2017 Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat Unclassified report available at: www.nasic.af.mil Produced by the: Defense Intelligence Ballistic Missile Analysis Committee (DIBMAC).
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Prepared by Textore, Inc. Peter Wood, David Yang, and Roger Cliff November 2020
    AIR-TO-AIR MISSILES CAPABILITIES AND DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA Prepared by TextOre, Inc. Peter Wood, David Yang, and Roger Cliff November 2020 Printed in the United States of America by the China Aerospace Studies Institute ISBN 9798574996270 To request additional copies, please direct inquiries to Director, China Aerospace Studies Institute, Air University, 55 Lemay Plaza, Montgomery, AL 36112 All photos licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license, or under the Fair Use Doctrine under Section 107 of the Copyright Act for nonprofit educational and noncommercial use. All other graphics created by or for China Aerospace Studies Institute Cover art is "J-10 fighter jet takes off for patrol mission," China Military Online 9 October 2018. http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/view/2018-10/09/content_9305984_3.htm E-mail: [email protected] Web: http://www.airuniversity.af.mil/CASI https://twitter.com/CASI_Research @CASI_Research https://www.facebook.com/CASI.Research.Org https://www.linkedin.com/company/11049011 Disclaimer The views expressed in this academic research paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the U.S. Government or the Department of Defense. In accordance with Air Force Instruction 51-303, Intellectual Property, Patents, Patent Related Matters, Trademarks and Copyrights; this work is the property of the U.S. Government. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights Reproduction and printing is subject to the Copyright Act of 1976 and applicable treaties of the United States. This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This publication is provided for noncommercial use only.
    [Show full text]
  • Navy Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) Program: Background and Issues for Congress
    Navy Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) Program: Background and Issues for Congress Updated September 30, 2021 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov RL33745 SUMMARY RL33745 Navy Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) September 30, 2021 Program: Background and Issues for Congress Ronald O'Rourke The Aegis ballistic missile defense (BMD) program, which is carried out by the Missile Defense Specialist in Naval Affairs Agency (MDA) and the Navy, gives Navy Aegis cruisers and destroyers a capability for conducting BMD operations. BMD-capable Aegis ships operate in European waters to defend Europe from potential ballistic missile attacks from countries such as Iran, and in in the Western Pacific and the Persian Gulf to provide regional defense against potential ballistic missile attacks from countries such as North Korea and Iran. MDA’s FY2022 budget submission states that “by the end of FY 2022 there will be 48 total BMDS [BMD system] capable ships requiring maintenance support.” The Aegis BMD program is funded mostly through MDA’s budget. The Navy’s budget provides additional funding for BMD-related efforts. MDA’s proposed FY2021 budget requested a total of $1,647.9 million (i.e., about $1.6 billion) in procurement and research and development funding for Aegis BMD efforts, including funding for two Aegis Ashore sites in Poland and Romania. MDA’s budget also includes operations and maintenance (O&M) and military construction (MilCon) funding for the Aegis BMD program. Issues for Congress regarding the Aegis BMD program include the following: whether to approve, reject, or modify MDA’s annual procurement and research and development funding requests for the program; the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the execution of Aegis BMD program efforts; what role, if any, the Aegis BMD program should play in defending the U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • HPCR Manual on International Law Applicable to Air and Missile Warfare
    Manual on International Law Applicable to Air and Missile Warfare Bern, 15 May 2009 Program on Humanitarian Policy and Conflict Research at Harvard University © 2009 The President and Fellows of Harvard College ISBN: 978-0-9826701-0-1 No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitt ed in any form without the prior consent of the Program on Humanitarian Policy and Con- fl ict Research at Harvard University. This restriction shall not apply for non-commercial use. A product of extensive consultations, this document was adopted by consensus of an international group of experts on 15 May 2009 in Bern, Switzerland. This document does not necessarily refl ect the views of the Program on Humanitarian Policy and Confl ict Research or of Harvard University. Program on Humanitarian Policy and Confl ict Research Harvard University 1033 Massachusett s Avenue, 4th Floor Cambridge, MA 02138 United States of America Tel.: 617-384-7407 Fax: 617-384-5901 E-mail: [email protected] www.hpcrresearch.org | ii Foreword It is my pleasure and honor to present the HPCR Manual on International Law Applicable to Air and Missile Warfare. This Manual provides the most up-to-date restatement of exist- ing international law applicable to air and missile warfare, as elaborated by an international Group of Experts. As an authoritative restatement, the HPCR Manual contributes to the practical understanding of this important international legal framework. The HPCR Manual is the result of a six-year long endeavor led by the Program on Humanitarian Policy and Confl ict Research at Harvard University (HPCR), during which it convened an international Group of Experts to refl ect on existing rules of international law applicable to air and missile warfare.
    [Show full text]
  • Air-Directed Surface-To-Air Missile Study Methodology
    H. T. KAUDERER Air-Directed Surface-to-Air Missile Study Methodology H. Todd Kauderer During June 1995 through September 1998, APL conducted a series of Warfare Analysis Laboratory Exercises (WALEXs) in support of the Naval Air Systems Command. The goal of these exercises was to examine a concept then known as the Air-Directed Surface-to-Air Missile (ADSAM) System in support of Navy Overland Cruise Missile Defense. A team of analysts and engineers from APL and elsewhere was assembled to develop a high-fidelity, physics-based engineering modeling process suitable for understanding and assessing the performance of both individual systems and a “system of systems.” Results of the initial ADSAM Study effort served as the basis for a series of WALEXs involving senior Flag and General Officers and were subsequently presented to the (then) Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Technology. (Keywords: ADSAM, Cruise missiles, Land Attack Cruise Missile Defense, Modeling and simulation, Overland Cruise Missile Defense.) INTRODUCTION In June 1995 the Naval Air Systems Command • Developing an analytical methodology that tied to- (NAVAIR) asked APL to examine the Air-Directed gether a series of previously distinct, “stovepiped” Surface-to-Air Missile (ADSAM) System concept for high-fidelity engineering models into an integrated their Overland Cruise Missile Defense (OCMD) doc- system that allowed the detailed analysis of a “system trine. NAVAIR was concerned that a number of impor- of systems” tant air defense–related decisions were being made
    [Show full text]
  • Appearance of Apparent Antiship Missile Targets in Gobi Test Areas During 2013
    Version of 2014-09-15 Appearance of Apparent Antiship Missile Targets in Gobi Test Areas during 2013 Area A Area B Area C Summary: In the course of a search for possible target areas for the failed Chinese hypersonic glide vehicle test of 2014-08-07 (*), it came to light that two and possibly three areas which appear intended to test antiship weapons recently became identifiable in an area of China previously known to have weapons targets. Although no connection could be made with the hypersonic test, the areas , arbitrarily designated A, B and C, seem to have intrinsic interest and are documented here. Any further information concerning them would be greatly appreciated. Please email it to [email protected] and indicate whether the sender wishes to be acknowledged in possible future versions of this document. (*) http://lewis.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/7443/crashing-glider-hidden-hotspring Area A 40.466 N, 93.521 E Area A, 2013-11-04 The three shapes at lower left seem clearly meant to represent ships. The dark chevron around them may represent piers. The objects above them and to the right are unidentified, but might represent shore facilities. Warships in Su-ao Harbor, Taiwan The picture scale is almost the same as in the above image of Area A. Both the pair of actual ships at center and the presumed ship targets are about 170 meters long, closely matching the dimensions of Ticonderoga-class cruisers and Kee Lung-class (ex-Kidd) destroyers. Area A, 2013-08-01 Construction of the ship targets is almost complete.
    [Show full text]
  • Trade Studies Towards an Australian Indigenous Space Launch System
    TRADE STUDIES TOWARDS AN AUSTRALIAN INDIGENOUS SPACE LAUNCH SYSTEM A thesis submitted for the degree of Master of Engineering by Gordon P. Briggs B.Sc. (Hons), M.Sc. (Astron) School of Engineering and Information Technology, University College, University of New South Wales, Australian Defence Force Academy January 2010 Abstract During the project Apollo moon landings of the mid 1970s the United States of America was the pre-eminent space faring nation followed closely by only the USSR. Since that time many other nations have realised the potential of spaceflight not only for immediate financial gain in areas such as communications and earth observation but also in the strategic areas of scientific discovery, industrial development and national prestige. Australia on the other hand has resolutely refused to participate by instituting its own space program. Successive Australian governments have preferred to obtain any required space hardware or services by purchasing off-the-shelf from foreign suppliers. This policy or attitude is a matter of frustration to those sections of the Australian technical community who believe that the nation should be participating in space technology. In particular the provision of an indigenous launch vehicle that would guarantee the nation independent access to the space frontier. It would therefore appear that any launch vehicle development in Australia will be left to non- government organisations to at least define the requirements for such a vehicle and to initiate development of long-lead items for such a project. It is therefore the aim of this thesis to attempt to define some of the requirements for a nascent Australian indigenous launch vehicle system.
    [Show full text]
  • NSIAD-90-146 Missile Procurement Executive Summary
    I “1 .” II ..._ -111”1”~1~ . .. - _-.. .- _ _.._.l:rril.tvl-_._._ ._ _.._ _. Slillt3_” _.I .,..- I..-- i;tkrrtkral“1”_.1_.-..-- _..------ Ac~orlnt -.-.----.-..---._._- ing Ol’l’iw.._._..- .-...... I “. ~_I ..-.---------- ---_._--.lll__ .-..” ..” *“I,L,“^I.“m”-““-. .11it\ l’tO0. MISSILE PROCUREMENT Further Production of RAAM Should Not Be Approved Until Questions Are Resolved National Security and International Affairs Division H-22 1734 May 4,199O The Honorable Denny Smith I louse of Representatives Dear Mr. Smith: This report addresses the status of the Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM) at the scheduled full-rate production milestone. As requested, we focused on the missile’s demonstrated operational performance, the contractors’ readiness to produce quality missiles at the required rates, and the latest program cost estimates. The report concludes that significant questions about AMRAAM'S performance, reliability, producibility, and affordability remain unresolved. It recommends that the Secretary of Defense not approve any additional AMRAAM production until (1) tests demonstrate that the missile can meet all of its critical performance requirements and that its reliability meets the established requirements, (2) both contractors demonstrate that they can consistently produce quality missiles at the rates required by their contracts, (3) the Air Force and the Navy complete their review of missile quantity requirements, and (4) the Department of Defense determines that the AMRAAM program is affordable within realistic future budget projections and consults with the Congress to ensure that the program complies with the adjusted statutory cost cap. The report also suggests that the Congress deny the $1.34 billion requested for AMRAAM procurement in fiscal year 1991.
    [Show full text]
  • Missilesmissilesdr Carlo Kopp in the Asia-Pacific
    MISSILESMISSILESDr Carlo Kopp in the Asia-Pacific oday, offensive missiles are the primary armament of fighter aircraft, with missile types spanning a wide range of specialised niches in range, speed, guidance technique and intended target. With the Pacific Rim and Indian Ocean regions today the fastest growing area globally in buys of evolved third generation combat aircraft, it is inevitable that this will be reflected in the largest and most diverse inventory of weapons in service. At present the established inventories of weapons are in transition, with a wide variety of Tlegacy types in service, largely acquired during the latter Cold War era, and new technology 4th generation missiles are being widely acquired to supplement or replace existing weapons. The two largest players remain the United States and Russia, although indigenous Israeli, French, German, British and Chinese weapons are well established in specific niches. Air to air missiles, while demanding technologically, are nevertheless affordable to develop and fund from a single national defence budget, and they result in greater diversity than seen previously in larger weapons, or combat aircraft designs. Air-to-air missile types are recognised in three distinct categories: highly agile Within Visual Range (WVR) missiles; less agile but longer ranging Beyond Visual Range (BVR) missiles; and very long range BVR missiles. While the divisions between the latter two categories are less distinct compared against WVR missiles, the longer ranging weapons are often quite unique and usually much larger, to accommodate the required propellant mass. In technological terms, several important developments have been observed over the last decade.
    [Show full text]
  • Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) Capable Missiles and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (Uavs)
    Order Code RS21376 Updated March 3, 2003 CRS Report for Congress Received through the CRS Web Iraq: Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) Capable Missiles and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) Andrew Feickert Analyst in National Defense Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division Summary This report addresses Iraq’s post-Gulf-War missile and UAV programs, system capabilities, and operational employment considerations. The UN has recently ordered Iraq to destroy its Al Samoud 2 missiles and associated engines which the UN claims are in violation of UN Security Council Resolutions (UNSCR) 687 and 715. Iraq is also estimated to have illegally retained up to 20 Al Hussein SCUD variant missiles and may have also attempted to extend the range of their Ababil-100 (also referred to as Al Fatah) missiles to proscribed limits. Iraq has also been accused of modifying L-29 Czech jet trainers to be used as UAVs to disseminate chemical or biological agents. This report will be updated as events warrant. Additional information is provided in CRS Issue Brief 1B92117, Iraq: Weapons, Threat, Compliance, Sanctions, and U.S. Policy and CRS Report RL31671, Iraq:UN Inspections for Weapons of Mass Destruction. Iraq’s Missile and UAV Program, 1991-1998 Since the conclusion of the Gulf War in 1991 and the imposition of UNSCR 687, United Nations Special Commission on Iraq (UNSCOM) inspectors have either supervised the destruction of, or accounted for:1 ! 817 of 819 Russian-supplied SCUD missiles; ! 19 transporter, erector, launchers (TELs); and ! 30 chemical/biological warheads. Prior to the Gulf War, Iraq experimented with a variety of ballistic missiles, most based on the proven SCUD design, with ranges from 900 to 2,500 kms.
    [Show full text]
  • GAO-21-378, HYPERSONIC WEAPONS: DOD Should Clarify
    United States Government Accountability Office Report to Congressional Addressees March 2021 HYPERSONIC WEAPONS DOD Should Clarify Roles and Responsibilities to Ensure Coordination across Development Efforts GAO-21-378 March 2021 HYPERSONIC WEAPONS DOD Should Clarify Roles and Responsibilities to Ensure Coordination across Development Efforts Highlights of GAO-21-378, a report to congressional addressees Why GAO Did This Study What GAO Found Hypersonic missiles, which are an GAO identified 70 efforts to develop hypersonic weapons and related important part of building hypersonic technologies that are estimated to cost almost $15 billion from fiscal years 2015 weapon systems, move at least five through 2024 (see figure). These efforts are widespread across the Department times the speed of sound, have of Defense (DOD) in collaboration with the Department of Energy (DOE) and, in unpredictable flight paths, and are the case of hypersonic technology development, the National Aeronautics and expected to be capable of evading Space Administration (NASA). DOD accounts for nearly all of this amount. today’s defensive systems. DOD has begun multiple efforts to develop Hypersonic Weapon-related and Technology Development Total Reported Funding by Type of offensive hypersonic weapons as well Effort from Fiscal Years 2015 through 2024, in Billions of Then-Year Dollars as technologies to improve its ability to track and defend against them. NASA and DOE are also conducting research into hypersonic technologies. The investments for these efforts are significant. This report identifies: (1) U.S. government efforts to develop hypersonic systems that are underway and their costs, (2) challenges these efforts face and what is being done to address them, and (3) the extent to which the U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • China Missile Chronology
    China Missile Chronology Last update: June 2012 2012 18 May 2012 The Department of Defense releases the 2012 “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China” report. The report highlights that the PLA Air force is modernizing its ground‐based air defense forces with conventional medium‐range ballistic missiles, which can “conduct precision strikes against land targets and naval ships, including aircraft carriers, operating far from China’s shores beyond the first island chain.” According to the Department of Defense’s report, China will acquire DF‐31A intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and enhanced, silo‐based DF‐5 (CSS‐4) ICMBs by 2015. To date, China is the third country that has developed a stealth combat aircraft, after the U.S. and Russia. J‐20 is expected conduct military missions by 2018. It will be equipped with “air‐to‐air missiles, air‐to‐surface missiles, anti‐radiation missiles, laser‐guided bombs and drop bombs.”J‐20 stealth fighter is a distinguished example of Chinese military modernization. – Office of Secretary of Defense, “Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2012,” distributed by U.S. Department of Defense, May 2012, www.defense.gov; Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense, David Helvey, “Press Briefing on 2012 DOD Report to Congress on ‘Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China,’” distributed by U.S. Department of Defense, 18 May 2012, www.defense.gov; “Chengdu J‐20 Multirole Stealth Fighter Aircraft, China,” Airforce‐Technology, www.airforce‐technology.com. 15 April 2012 North Korea shows off a potential new ICBM in a military parade.
    [Show full text]
  • The Future of the U.S. Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Force
    CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that EDUCATION AND THE ARTS helps improve policy and decisionmaking through ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT research and analysis. HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from INFRASTRUCTURE AND www.rand.org as a public service of the RAND TRANSPORTATION Corporation. INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS NATIONAL SECURITY Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Support RAND Purchase this document TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY Browse Reports & Bookstore Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore RAND Project AIR FORCE View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. C O R P O R A T I O N The Future of the U.S. Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Force Lauren Caston, Robert S.
    [Show full text]