Next Generation Missile Defense Targets and Threats Mark A. Clark Director Missile and Space Intelligence Center August 8th: On This Date in History… Montenegro declares war on Germany Great Britain and Russia sign trade agreement President Truman signs the United Nations Charter USSR establishes a communist government in North Korea The U.S. and South Korea initiate a mutual security pact U.N. Secretary-General announces a cease-fire between Iran and Iraq The “Good ‘ole Days” ??? 21st Century Ballistic Missiles • Can reach targets inaccessible to aircraft • Fastest launch-to-target stand-off weapons • Prestige, profit, coercion, deterrence, and warfighting roles • Traditional role of long-range missiles is nuclear deterrence • Remains a major role; expanding to more countries • Improved guidance allows effective use in conventional roles • Counter adversary airpower and deny regional access • Ballistic missiles increasingly “non-ballistic” • Hypersonic glide vehicles • Maneuvering reentry vehicles • The term “ballistic” may go away Hierarchy of Needs from the Perspective of a Ballistic Missile Designer Survivability (Countermeasures) Effectiveness (Warhead Effects) Accuracy Range Proliferation of SCUD Missiles and Technology Armenia Vietnam UAE SCUD B SCUD B Iraq Belarus SCUD B Kazakhstan Al Hussein Ukraine Afghanistan SCUD B SCUD B North Korea No Dong SCUD C USSR SCUD B Yemen SCUD B Burkan 1950s Syria Egypt SCUD B SCUD B SCUD C Iran SCUD B Libya Pakistan Shahab 1/2/3 Ghauri Qiam-1 SCUD B Recent Ballistic Missile Proliferation Iranian Materiel Display at Joint Base Anacostia-Bolling Irrefutable evidence that Iran provided ballistic missiles and other weapons to Yemen Russia • Maintains a large land and sea based missile force • Large ballistic missile modernization investment • New START constrained force –1,550 warheads • Several new longer-range missiles in development Russia • Kinzhal “Dagger” air-launched ballistic missile (ALBM) launched from MiG-31 China • ICBM force growing • Mobility, survivability, BMD countermeasures • New, highly accurate missiles with conventional warfighting roles Iran • Improving capabilities • Accuracy, payloads, range • Placed satellites in orbit • Experience applicable to ICBM development North Korea •Deterrence, warfighting, prestige, profit •Multiple recent IRBM and ICBM launches •Developing more solid propellant ballistic missiles •No missile tests since Nov ‘17 Cruise/Hypersonic Cruise Missiles Cruise missiles Russian Kh-101 • Tech proliferation despite international control efforts • Anti-ship Cruise Missile (ASCM) – Naval concern, influence shipping lanes, threaten carriers – Pre-launch: targeting from aircraft/OTH sensor data – Post-launch: onboard seeker acquires & guides to target – Faster, stealthier, & more accurate than predecessors • Land-attack Cruise Missile (LACM) –Pre-programmed & autonomous –INS paired w/ SATNAV, contour-matching radar, or optical- scene-matching systems –Low altitudes, treated with RCS/IR signature reducing materials –New propulsion, navigation, & seeker technologies improve long-range accuracy & lethality Chinese Cruise Missile Hypersonic cruise missiles Brahmos-II • India and Russia developing Brahmos-II • 165 NM range • Mach 7 speed • Scramjet engine propulsion Higher Technology Means More Effective: Or Does It??? Effectiveness Level of Technology While designing against modern, technically sophisticated threats, we must also be prepared to engage older, unsophisticated threats. Dinosaurs Have Not Stopped Roaming the Earth The Challenge for the Missile Defense Community • Be prepared to engage and defeat the technologically advanced threats being developed by our adversaries in the 21st century ̶ Numerous ̶ Fast-paced ̶ Technically Challenging • Continue to ensure U.S. and Allied defenses are effective against 50+ year old systems, sometimes with modern upgrades Intelligence support is more important than ever! 2017 Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat Unclassified report available at: www.nasic.af.mil Produced by the: Defense Intelligence Ballistic Missile Analysis Committee (DIBMAC).