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L. 7-1Y/— Ot2.-A--2 -3 • (0 12958 3.4(B111m5yrs ICI SC-07107/68 • L. 7-1y/— ot2.-a--2 -3 • (0 12958 3.4(b111M5Yrs ICI SC-07107/68 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Directorate of Intelligence APPROVED FOR RELEASE 24 September 1968 DATE MAY2002 INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM Current Disposition and Capabilities of Soviet Forces for Localized Offensive Actions Against Berlin or West .Germany 1. The redisposition of Soviet and East German forces which ,took place during the invasion of Czecho- slovakia has resulted in an improved capability for localized offensive action against Bavaria. At the same time, however, the Soviet forces in East Germany have been reduced, and their current posture is proba- bly poorer for offensive action against NATO than before the invasion. Although present Soviet and East German troop dispositions around Berlin are sizable, they are also considerably reduced from the levels present before the Czech invasion (see attached map). Soviet Forces Adjacent to Bavaria 2. The invasion of Czechoslovakia resulted in the deployment of two additional Soviet armies near the Bavarian border, and the ?robable deployment of a third Soviet army in the East German-Czechoslovak border area. Including the army permanently deployed opposite Bavaria in East Germany, there are now at least three, and probably four, Soviet armies within 100 miles of Bavaria. 3. Considering that NATO has two corps in this area, with each corps roughly equivalent to a Soviet army, the Soviets probably would believe their supe- riority:in . the area adequate to ensure a localized victory. The current diepositions leave the Soviets weak in the 100-mile sector between the Helmstedt and Eisenach autobahns from which they withdrew forces to invade Czechoslovakia. [0 12958 3AMI11>25Yrs ET ICI er. Iftwr TOP E0 12958 3,41111111>25Yrs SC-07107/68 ICI 4. Below is a list of the Soviet armies involved: Permanently deployed on East German- Bavarian border 8th Guards Army 2 motorized rifle divisions 1 tank division 2 East German motorized rifle divisions Relocated to Czechoslovakia from East Germany 1st Guards Tank Army 3 to 4 tank divisions 2 motorized rifle divisions 20th Guards Army 3 motorized rifle divisions Moved to southern East Germany or north- western Czechoslovakia from western USSR 11th Guards Army 4 to 5 motorized rifle divisions Soviet Forces in the Area of Berlin 5. The Soviets would consider the defense of the East German border area an essential aspect of any move against Berlin. The movement of the two armies from East Germany to Czechoslovakia has reduced Soviet forces facing West Germany. In addition, it has re- duced the number of divisions around Berlin from seven to four--three Soviet and one East German. 6. In all, there are currently six Soviet and East German divisions located around Berlin and between Berlin and the West German border. Five of these are in the 3rd Shock Army which has three - 2 - ED 12958 3.4110111>25Yrs (C) TO SC-07107/68 (0 12958 3.411M1)>25Yrs divisions in the vicinity of Berlin and two near the West German border. One East German division is in the western suburbs of Berlin. 7. It 'is likely that as the Czechoslovakian situation stabilizes the Soviets will restore forces in East Germany to their former strength. At the same time they probably will maintain a new force on the order of six divisions along the Czechoslovak-Bavarian border. 3 E012958 3.4031111>25Yrs ET NINO Nose vic tsnd East German Ground Forces Deployment 1 May 1968 Mid . September 1968 •,// V Q.> • ,...." ivC-----7 ,I). \EAST GERMANY air: \\EAST GERMA A I• ind Guards Army ,...,. 2nd Guardi Army N.• 1 - '•4,,... / -431. FEDERAL RZPUBLIC );;1 ) FEDERAL REPUBLIC . 3rd Shock Army ,....." ) 7.11. OF i \ OF 20th Guards Army r .s1 3rd Shock Army/.--... / \ : \ GERMANY GERMANY fr) \ ‘ ,..iy1 •IY\ 3rd Shock Army —=42.12.,i,.! in.\ ) H•Imstec14 T....A.0 Nelmitedtk ., ..„-_4.1tobohn ( magdeburg -as. Magdeburg 3rd Shock V20th Guards Army 11 .,r)5.3./.4.1 ( . Ylk);.: k■ t:;z,.. V lii 1st Guards Tank Army ‘.... ,-) •Leivig •Leibli. Eisce,:h , .sh 1'1 (4,:i ........... V .Erturt G furt -NE.;,:‘,1:±a9a • ../ena Drab:len. 8th narcis Oratden. ... 8th Guards Army Army )11)•Plau•n 4-5 CZECHOSLOVAKIA CZ! •Cheb •Wurzburg ()Prague •Wurzburg 21 • Men • Plzen • Nurnberg • Nurnberg 1st Guards Tank Air FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY Ceik; B A V. A. R 1 A Moto .Mu nig h • Munich Tank IAU East C Mil AUSTRIA AUSTRIA TOP SEC EO 12958 3.4181111>25Yrs a a 41. a I Ground Forces Deployment Against West Germany And Berlin :mber 1968 Possible Future Soviet Deployment TOP Crcq" c V5- • e-c!--. \.15 C.—till \FAST GERMANY "as \EAST GERMANY '12.• t ,..k 2nd Guards Army 2nd Guards Army 1 "..... as. \ 0 FEDERAL REPUBLIC ) 3rd Shock Army i I\ ....- Qv "as OF —40 20ch Guards Army 3rd Shock Arm GERMANY 1 (NY t 1 3rd Sh----auf:TtockArmy 2. 1■IN •) lelmstedt\ 14111111St6dt Awn bn /A.,?.r.......Y---0. ( -Magdeburg 46"magdsburg . \ kle) 3rd Shock my 420th Guards Army I gliruah ^ ( di t's ..,;( 1 st Guards Tank Army \ q o L•iogig Ns. I/N° ) Leipzig ifleh N!`) •Erfurt ‘••••.-. -••••-• • „ ■• Pena Drew:len 8th naros Dresden. 8th Guards Army Army ) 1th Guards Army Plauen ) Plauen ;;;) 1411 CZECHOSLOVAKIA '',.; y; CZECHOSLOVAKIA \,,LCheb .\;..:,Cheb .a •wurzburg °Prague ..-., 2C)Prague v-20th . Guards Plzen ;,.... ......- ..:::Plzen Army Nurnberg „Nurnberg Occupation Army ‘.. 1st Guards (About 6 Divisiont,) \ ArmyTank d... REPUBLIC OF GERMANY FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY Ceske Budejovice Ceike EalajOViCe. BAVARIA BAVARIA •Munich Motorised rifle division •Nlunich ■0.• Tank division V • • East German AUSTRIA AUSTRIA (0 12958 3.41111111>25Yrs (C1.
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