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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Directorate of Intelligence APPROVED FOR RELEASE 24 September 1968 DATE MAY2002

INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM

Current Disposition and Capabilities of Soviet Forces for Localized Offensive Actions Against Berlin or West .

1. The redisposition of Soviet and East German forces which ,took place during the invasion of Czecho- slovakia has resulted in an improved capability for localized offensive action against Bavaria. At the same time, however, the Soviet forces in East Germany have been reduced, and their current posture is proba- bly poorer for offensive action against NATO than before the invasion. Although present Soviet and East German troop dispositions around Berlin are sizable, they are also considerably reduced from the levels present before the Czech invasion (see attached map). Soviet Forces Adjacent to Bavaria 2. The invasion of Czechoslovakia resulted in the deployment of two additional Soviet armies near the Bavarian border, and the ?robable deployment of a third Soviet army in the East German-Czechoslovak border area. Including the army permanently deployed opposite Bavaria in East Germany, there are now at least three, and probably four, Soviet armies within 100 miles of Bavaria. 3. Considering that NATO has two in this area, with each corps roughly equivalent to a Soviet army, the Soviets probably would believe their supe- riority:in . the area adequate to ensure a localized victory. The current diepositions leave the Soviets weak in the 100-mile sector between the Helmstedt and Eisenach autobahns from which they withdrew forces to invade Czechoslovakia.

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4. Below is a list of the Soviet armies involved: Permanently deployed on East German- Bavarian border 8th Guards Army 2 motorized rifle divisions 1 tank 2 East German motorized rifle divisions Relocated to Czechoslovakia from East Germany 1st Guards Tank Army 3 to 4 tank divisions 2 motorized rifle divisions 20th Guards Army 3 motorized rifle divisions Moved to southern East Germany or north- western Czechoslovakia from western USSR 11th Guards Army 4 to 5 motorized rifle divisions Soviet Forces in the Area of Berlin 5. The Soviets would consider the defense of the East German border area an essential aspect of any move against Berlin. The movement of the two armies from East Germany to Czechoslovakia has reduced Soviet forces facing West Germany. In addition, it has re- duced the number of divisions around Berlin from seven to four--three Soviet and one East German. 6. In all, there are currently six Soviet and East German divisions located around Berlin and between Berlin and the West German border. Five of these are in the 3rd Shock Army which has three

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(0 12958 3.411M1)>25Yrs divisions in the vicinity of Berlin and two near the West German border. One East German division is in the western suburbs of Berlin. 7. It is likely that as the Czechoslovakian situation stabilizes the Soviets will restore forces in East Germany to their former strength. At the same time they probably will maintain a new force on the order of six divisions along the Czechoslovak-Bavarian border.

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