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Future North NÆRINGS- OG FISKERIDEPARTEMENTET KOMMUNAL- OG MODERNISERINGSDEPARTEMENTET KLIMA- OG MILJØDEPARTEMENTET Report Published by: Ministry of Trade, Industry and Fisheries Future North Public institutions can order more copies from: Future North Norwegian Government Security and Service Organisation Internet: www.publikasjoner.dep.no Email: [email protected] Final report from 'Knowledge Gathering – Telephone: + 47 2224 2000 Publication code: W-0001 B Value Creation in the North' Design: Itera AS Layout: 07 Media – 07.no Printing: Norwegian Government Security and Service Organisation 04/2014 – print run 200 NÆRINGS- OG FISKERIDEPARTEMENTET KOMMUNAL- OG MODERNISERINGSDEPARTEMENTET KLIMA- OG MILJØDEPARTEMENTET Report Future North Final report from 'Knowledge Gathering – Value Creation in the North' Future North Foreword ˜ page 3 Foreword by the Ministries This knowledge-gathering project is the outcome with representatives of the business community and of the white paper 'First Update of the Integrated government in Northern Norway. We wish to take this Management Plan for the Marine Environment of the opportunity to thank everyone who contributed to Barents Sea–Lofoten Area' (Meld. St. 10 (2010-2011): the knowledge-gathering project. The Ministry of Trade and Industry, the Ministry of The report was produced by the project secretariat on Fisheries and Coastal Affairs, the Ministry of Local behalf of the project steering group with the excep- Government and Regional Development and the tion of chapter 2, which was written by Peter Arbo of Ministry of the Environment will develop knowledge the University of Tromsø. The introductions to each of the direct and spin-off effects of expanding com- chapter were written by Kriss Rokkan Iversen of SALT. mercial activities such as tourism and fishery-related enterprises. The knowledge acquired will be useful for It is our hope that the overall result will be used for the next update of the management plan. [……] the further development of plans and policy instru- ments with a view to boosting value creation in Knowledge Gathering – Value Creation in the North Northern Norway, at a local, regional and central level. covers the three northernmost counties (Nordland, Troms and Finnmark) and focuses on coastal areas in The final report and various studies are available on particular. The subjects for the knowledge-gathering the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Fisheries website. project were defined in consultation with local and Stakeholders can submit ideas and comments regard- regional authorities, as well as sectoral authorities, ing the final report. Any comments regarding the expert environments, business players and other knowledge-gathering project should be sent to the affected parties. Ministry of Trade, Industry and Fisheries by 31 July 2014. The results from the knowledge-gathering project, which are presented in this final report, are based on comprehensive material gathered in the course of Ministry of Trade, Industry and Fisheries 13 studies, development of an economic model, Ministry of Local Government and Modernisation an extensive scenario process and frequent contact Ministry of Climate and Environment Future North Contents ˜ page 4 / 5 Contents Foreword by the Ministries . 3 5 Business in Northern Norway in 2011 . 74 5.1 Total economic value creation in Summary . 6 the industries in question................... 75 Current status and future prospects of the 5.2 The marine industries................... 78 industries .................................. 8 5.3 Tourism ................................ 84 Boosting value creation – challenges 5.4 Renewable energy ..................... 91 and policy instruments ..................... 11 5.5 The mineral industry.................... 96 Future prospects for Northern Norway ...... 16 5.6 Other industry and business . 101 5.7 Sami business .......................... 109 1 Introduction . 18 5.8 Competence, R&D and innovation 1.1 Background: Integrated Management in the sectors............................... 112 Plan for the Barents Sea-Lofoten Area ....... 20 5.9 Greenhouse gas emissions . 120 1.2 Process................................. 21 1.3 Methodological approach .............. 24 6 Challenges and policy instruments . 124 1.4 Reader guidance ....................... 25 6.1 General challenges ..................... 125 6.2 Policy instruments to meet 2 Integrated modernisation . 26 the challenges ............................. 129 2.1 Northern Norway as a concept . 27 6.3 Policy instruments and value creation ... 131 2.2 A modernisation programme ........... 28 2.3 The first modernisation project.......... 28 7 Future North . 148 2.4 The second modernisation project ...... 29 7.1 Significance of uncertain driving 2.5 The third modernisation project......... 30 forces . 150 2.6 From Northern Norway to the High North.... 31 7.2 What will stricter climate policy mean? .. 150 7.3 How important will petroleum 3 Looking into the future: Northern Norway activity be?................................. 151 in 2030 . 34 7.4 How important will 3.1 Creating the pictures of the future . 35 competence be? ........................... 153 3.2 Driving forces .......................... 36 7.5 Conclusion ............................. 153 3.3 Climate innovation ..................... 37 3.4 Gas rules ............................... 38 Reference list . 154 3.5 Taking matters into our own hands ..... 38 3.6 Class society in the north ............... 39 Appendices . 160 3.7 What happens after 2030? .............. 39 Appendix 1: Definitions..................... 161 Appendix 2: Policy instruments ............. 162 4 Building blocks for value creation Appendix 3: Projections in the sectoral and business development . 42 analyses.................................... 166 4.1 Natural resources, the environment Appendix 4: NOREG ........................ 167 and ecosystem services..................... 43 Appendix 5: Industrial classification ......... 171 4.2 Labour ................................. 59 Appendix 6: Areas . 176 4.3 Competence, R&D and innovation....... 64 4.4 Infrastructure........................... 67 4.5 Capital and ownership .................. 71 Summary Photo: Øystein Lunde, www.nordnorge.com, Bø. Sculpture: The Man from the Sea, Kjell Erik Killi Olsen Future North Summary ˜ page 6 / 7 In Knowledge Gathering – Value Creation in the North • Cross-sectoral analyses looking at the challenges the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Fisheries, the Ministry facing several industries, e.g. access to competent of Climate and Environment, and the Ministry of Local labour, innovation and infrastructure Government and Modernisation take a detailed look at the opportunities for growth in selected industries in • A scenario process for drawing qualitative pictures Northern Norway. The industries were chosen on the basis of what Northern Norway may be like in 2030 of the original commission in the white paper Meld. St. 10 given development in uncertain driving forces, (2010-2011), i.e. tourism and fishery-related enterprises, such as the scope of petroleum activity, the devel- supplemented by two resource-based industries, renew- opment of climate policy globally and the develop- able energy and minerals, which have aroused expecta- ment of competence and innovation in the region. tions with a view to increased growth in Northern Norway. • Qualitative and quantitative assessments of policy The overarching problems were as follows: instruments. These last analyses were carried out using a macro-model for the regional economy • What is the potential for future value creation within developed as part of the project. Among other the marine industries (seafood), tourism, renewable things, they look at the regional effects of both energy, the mineral industry, and other industry and central and local policy instrument use, and how business in Northern Norway? What will this mean growth in one industry affects the development for future employment in the industries in question? opportunities for other industries. • What is needed to realise the potential for value The knowledge-gathering project is based on the creation? What are the most important challenges assumption that value creation must be sustainable. and how can they be dealt with? What are the This means taking account of the economic, social, most effective policy instruments for providing cultural and environmental aspects of value creation, a framework for profitable growth? and balancing these considerations in a way that secures the objectives of economic growth, social • What might Northern Norway be like in 2030, development and care for the environment. Sustain- looking ahead to 2060? able growth must provide greater welfare and improved quality of life, while looking after and The problems were explored using several different improving our basis for life in the long term. tools and methods, including: Commercial activity impacts on the external environ- • Sectoral analyses charting the selected industries, ment by exploiting nature's bounty and harvesting including their potential for future value creation natural resources. If insufficient account is taken of the and employment environmental challenges this entails, the industries may impair/weaken the basis for their own activities conditions for aquaculture, and by-products from in the longer term. both fisheries and aquaculture are important input factors in the marine ingredients industry. Current status and future prospects of the industries
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