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© Dehavilland Information Services Ltd 2017 1 © DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2017 1 The clear winner from the legislative elections held on 11 and 18 June is the alliance of La République en Marche ! and Mouvement Democrate (MoDem), which has delivered President Emmanuel Macron the centrist majority that he needs. En Marche ! – a party that did not even exist fourteen months ago – has managed to lead the alliance to 350 seats out of 577, winning across France. Although the group have in many ways surpassed expectations by winning with a solid majority, they nevertheless fell short of the landslide victory that some polls were predicting last week. The Socialist Party saw the largest number of losses relative to the previous election in 2012, mirroring their poor performance in last month's Presidential election. The party could only manage to win 29 seats, a full 263 fewer than the last election when they emerged as victors. It was also a bad election for Les Républicains and the UDI. The centre-right alliance managed 131 seats, which represents a loss of 95 from the last election. Whilst LR-UDI remain the second largest group in the National Assembly, the result will be a considerable disappointment for a party which was predicted to win these elections not long ago. Perhaps more notable still is the performance of the Front National. The far-right party failed to build on the momentum that pushed them in to the run-off round of the Presidential election, and received only eight seats out of the 577. Of the smaller parties, Jean-Luc Mélenchon's La France Insoumise did the best. He and the allied parties in his group managed to take 17 seats, having had no representation at all in the previous National Assembly. The Communist party also made modest gains to take 10 seats. © DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2017 2 Reactions in France Catherine Barbaroux, La République En Marche !, has said that the party would move forward with an attitude defined by three words: “lucidity, responsibility and humility”. She also said that “far from postures, our members of parliament, through their multiple experiences, will vote for laws to unlock our economy, free up our energies, create new solidarities and protect the French". Francois Baroin, Les Républicains, tweeted “the outcome of the election results in a political group large enough to have our commitments and values heard”. On the issue of the abstention rate, he also tweeted: “We cannot forget the low turnout, never seen since 1958”. Jean-Christophe Cambadélis, Parti Socialiste said that he was resigning from the head of the Socialist Party. He noted that “Macron’s triumph is incontestable” and that “the collapse of the Socialist Party is beyond doubt”. He has called on the left "to change everything, its form and its substance, its ideas and its organisation". Marine Le Pen, Front National, has said that President Macron “must know that his ideas are not of the majority in the country and that the French will not support a project that weakens our nation". She has also said that the Front National “are the only force of resistance to the dilution of France, its social model and identity”. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, La France Insoumise, tweeted: “now, the strength of abstentionism needs to convert into the strenght of the citizen’s revolution”. Mr Mélenchon also promised “social resistance” to Macron’s reform agenda and he warned “new powers that not a foot of ground will be given up in the labor law struggle”. Prime Minister Edouard Philippe tweeted: “This Sunday, you have given a strong majority to the French President and the Government”. In a statement, he said “this is an opportunity for France. One year ago no one would have imagined such a political renewal”. He has also said “through this vote, the French people have showed they preferred hope to anger, optimism to pessimism, confidence to closing in on oneself”. Reactions in Europe Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker tweeted: “Congratulations to French PM Edouard Philippe. The National Assembly represents a modern France and determined to evolve within a strengthened EU”. Peter Altmaier, German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Chief of Staff, wrote on Twitter that “France now has a strong president with a strong majority in parliament”. He contended that this was “Good for Europe and for Germany!". Guy Verhofstaft, the European Parliament’s Chief Brexit negotiator, tweeted: “Congratulations @MoDem and @enmarchefr for their great results. #EnMarche to reform France & reform Europe! #legislatives2017”. © DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2017 3 A staggering majority for La République en Marche ! Against all odds, the legislative election has resulted in a staggering majority for LREM!, a party which was created less than fourteen months ago. This election sets a precedent in the history of the 5th Republic in that the Parliament will be led by a majority from the centre, whereas Parliament majorities have always been characterised as either right-wing or left-wing since 1958. Disappearance of traditional parties The trend which became apparent in the Presidential election, marked by the premature elimination of the two biggest traditional parties in the first round of the election, has been reinforced in the legislative election. While LR was able to limit the extent of the damage, the PS will be almost non- existent in the new Assembly. A National Assembly led by “rookies” Among the criteria for selection of the candidates for LREM!, French President Emmanuel Macron wanted half of them to come from the civil society. As a result, many newly-elected MPs will sit in Parliament for the first time and many of them have no political experience. The list of more experienced politicians elected for LREM! also shows that they cover a broad range of the political spectrum, from former Socialist Party member Christophe Castaner to former Les Républicains affiliate Bruno Le Maire. A high abstention rate Both Presidential and legislative elections have been marked by a low turnout. This has been due to a number of factors, including the absence of a traditional left or right-wing party in the second round of the Presidential Election and the fatigue resulting from a long campaign and numerous rounds of elections. Going forward A major issue at stake in the legislative election was whether the French would be willing to give the President the ability to implement his manifesto. With 350 MPs in his hands, Mr Macron’s ability to pass his reforms through law is strengthened considerably. However, while close observers of the French political scene believe that Mr Macron will benefit from his parliamentary majority initially, in the long-run the party could be destabilised due to the various political sensitivities the President will need to contend with. As a matter of fact, several candidates for LREM! have already indicated that they would play the role of critical observers in respect of the implementation of the Executive’s policies. The traditional parties will also be looking at rebuilding themselves, not least by embarking on a charm offensive towards LREM!. Therefore, very experienced politicians in LREM! are expected to be appointed in key positions at the National Assembly in order to ensure everyone works together and prevent rebellions within the party. © DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2017 4 Many observers also fear that, due to a Parliament in the grip of the Executive, the parties excluded from power will prefer to take their opposition in to the streets. The threat of major demonstrations will therefore likely influence the President’s method of government. A strong legitimacy internally and abroad Against his anti-EU, populist opponent Marine Le Pen, the French President was elected with a clear, pro-EU mandate, calling for a reformed European Union, based on the French-German partnership as a driving force. The President’s wish to put Europe high on the agenda has manifested itself in the appointment of a Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs and the appointment of a former MEP as Junior Minister for the Europe’s portfolio. His further success in the legislative election has given him more political weight to carry out his pro- EU programme. Externally, with US isolationist policy as well as the initiation of Brexit negotiations, France could regain influence vis-à-vis its EU partners going forward. Moreover, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has favourably welcomed the election of the French President, showing openness to revise the EU treaties in the direction of deepened economic integration. France’s expected stance on major EU topics The next meeting of the European Council on 22-23 June will be the first occasion for Mr Macron to assess the feasilibity of his proposals against the agenda of the 27 other Member States. In his Presidential manifesto, Mr Macron called for: the organisation of citizens’ conventions across Europe as of the end of 2017 to “give a meaning to the European project”; the establishment of a Parliament and a Finance Minister of the eurozone; the protection of industries at the European level through a “Buy European Act”; revised posted workers legislation, allowing them to work in a Member State for a limited period of one year; the strengthening of Frontex powers, in particular through a pool of 5,000 coast gards; the creation of a European Defence Fund as well as permanent European Headquarters; a stronger voice on the environment, in particular through the creation of a financial transaction tax to finance energy transition in Europe and help third countries develop green energies. However, the French President wil have to wait until the German election in September before things can really start moving forward. © DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2017 5 This briefing is an example of the in-depth political information DeHavilland EU provides to public affairs and policy professionals every day.
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