Southern California Crime Report 2019
Presented by the UCI Irvine Lab for the Study of Space and Crime (ILSSC)
School of Social Ecology University of California Irvine
January, 2019
Southern California Crime Report 2019 Authors:
John R. Hipp Charis E. Kubrin
Graduate Student Researchers:
Christopher J. Bates
Christopher Contreras
Benjamin Forthun
Navjyot Gill
Xiaoshuang “Iris” Luo
Michelle D. Mioduszewski
Hwawon Seo
Rylan Simpson
Rebecca Tublitz
Seth Williams
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ABOUT THE IRVINE LAB FOR THE STUDY OF SPACE AND CRIME (ILSSC)
The Irvine Laboratory for the Study of Space and Crime (ILSSC) in the Department of Criminology, Law and Society at the University of California, Irvine is dedicated to researching the social ecology of crime at all levels of analysis including street segments, blocks, neighborhoods, cities, counties, and metropolitan areas. Together with our collaborators and community partners, our team seeks to generate high quality scientific research on the space- crime nexus, and to foster intellectual exchange among faculty, graduate students, and undergraduate students at the University of California, Irvine, as well as members of the larger community. The team studies: 1) Foundational issues, including the dynamics of urban crime, the micro-environment of crime, and the role of local institutional resources for fighting crime; 2) Enduring challenges, including inequality, concentrated poverty and concentrated affluence, urban processes such as economic redevelopment and gentrification, and trends in immigration and other demographic population shifts; 3) Contemporary challenges, including the housing crisis and foreclosures, the spatial clustering of multiple social problems, and the continuous cycling of offenders in and out of prison and on and off of supervision. The ILSSC is a subsidiary of the Metropolitan Futures Initiative (MFI).
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Table of Contents Executive Summary ...... v Chapter 1. Introduction ...... 1 Methodology ...... 1 Chapter 2. Violent and property crime ...... 3 Top 10 cities with cities with highest violent or property crime rates in 2017 ...... 3 Top 10 cities with highest violent and property crime rates averaged over 2015-2017 ...... 5 Top 10 cities with lowest violent or property crime rates in 2017 ...... 8 Top 10 cities with lowest violent and property crime rates averaged over 2015-2017 ...... 9 Adjusted Crime rates based on city characteristics ...... 12 Top 10 cities with highest adjusted violent or property crime rates in 2017 ...... 12 Top 10 cities with highest adjusted violent and property crime rates averaged over 2015-2017 ...... 14 Top 10 cities with lowest adjusted violent or property crime rates in 2017 ...... 15 Top 10 cities with lowest adjusted violent and property crime rates averaged over 2015-2017 ...... 16 Chapter 3. Change in Violent and Property Crime in last 10 years ...... 18 Top 10 cities with biggest increases in violent crime in last 1, 5, and 10 years ...... 18 Top 10 cities with biggest increases in property crime in last 1, 5, and 10 years...... 22 Top 10 cities with biggest decreases in violent crime in last 1, 5, and 10 years...... 26 Top 10 cities with biggest decreases in property crime in last 1, 5, and 10 years ...... 28 Chapter 4. Violent and Property Crime long-term change and projections ...... 30 Changes since 1990 in violent and property crime for U.S. cities ...... 30 Projections of violent and property crime for 2019 ...... 31 County-level changes in violent and property crime ...... 31 Appendix ...... 33 Los Angeles County ...... 34 Orange County ...... 48 Riverside County ...... 55 San Bernardino County ...... 61 San Diego County ...... 67 Ventura County ...... 73
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Executive Summary
In this Report, we use the most recent UCR crime data for cities released by the FBI, representing 2017.
Cities with the highest violent and property crime rates tend to be in the Counties of Los Angeles and San Bernardino. The highest violent crime rate is in the City of San Bernardino, which has a rate of violence 280% higher than the national average. And, the highest property crime rate is in Commerce, which has 280% more property crimes than a typical U.S. city.
Cities with the lowest violent and property crime rates tend to not be concentrated in a single county, but rather are located in all counties across the Southern California region. Indian Wells in Riverside County has the lowest violent crime rate, and the City of Imperial has the lowest property crime rate.
In the last year, a diverse mix of cities from counties across the Southern California region saw large decreases in violent and property crime rates. The city of Barstow in San Bernardino County witnessed the largest decrease in violent crime, while the city of Palm Springs in Riverside County saw the largest decrease in property crime rates.
In the last year, the beach city of Santa Monica experienced the largest increase in crimes against persons, and the affluent city of Beverly Hills experienced the largest increase in crimes against property. However, these seem to be minor blips in crime rates for these particular cities, given that neither is among the top 10 cities with the largest increases in violent and property crime rates over a longer time period, say the last 5 or 10 years. It does not follow that short-term increases in crime are indicative of more long-term trends in crime rates.
The largest increases in violent crime in the last 5 years and the last 10 years have overwhelmingly taken place in cities in Los Angeles County and the Inland Empire, although long-term decreases in violent crime rates are taking root across cities in virtually all counties within the Southern California region. Eight of the top 10 cities going through more long-term decreases in violence are in the County of Los Angeles. Indeed, the city going through the largest decrease in violence in the last 10 years is in Los Angeles County: Hawaiian Gardens.
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Among the cities with more long-term increases in property crime, eight cities (i.e., Compton, El Centro, Fontana, Huntington Beach, Lake Elsinore, Perris, Pomona, and San Bernardino) have witnessed the largest increases in property crime in the last 5 years and the last 10 years. It does not follow that sizeable, and more durable, increases in levels of property crime characterize crime trends for the Southern California region as a whole.
A range of cities in the Southern California region are undergoing more long-term decreases in property crime rates. Indeed, a few cities in Los Angeles County have seen the largest decreases in property crime over the last 10 years, with Cerritos topping the list, going from almost 70% to only 23% above the national average in property crime.
According to our forecast model, cities are projected to experience an average 12% decrease in violent crime in 2019, and 1% for property crime. Our forecast model also projects violence decreasing in 80% of cities in the region, and property crime decreasing in 53% of the cities in the region.
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Chapter 1. Introduction
This is the fourth annual Southern California Crime Report (SCCR). In the SCCR, we use data from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program to describe the level of crime in cities located in the Southern California region in 2017. It is well-known that these data underestimate the actual amount of crime. This occurs because some crime events are not reported by citizens or detected by the police. The crime data can also be inaccurate if the police classify some non-crime events as crimes, or if they code some crime events as non-crimes. Despite these limitations, UCR data is generally recognized as the best data source available for tracking crime trends in U.S. cities.
In our report, we examine the six most serious types of crime: homicide; aggravated assault; robbery; burglary; motor vehicle theft; and larceny.1 For the analysis, we analyzed the level of crime for all cities in the region with a population size of at least 4,000. We use this value given that cities with very small populations can have excessive crime rates even with very few crime events. The Southern California region is an area that includes 196 cities in the following counties: 1) Los Angeles; 2) Orange; 3) Riverside; 4) San Bernardino; 5) San Diego; 6) Ventura; 7) Imperial. The region contains 21.7 million people.
We present results for cities with the top 10 levels of each crime type, cities with the bottom 10 levels of each crime type, and the top 10 increases and top 10 decreases in each crime type. The last part of the report presents results for each county one at a time.
Methodology
Throughout the SCCR, we have standardized crime rates to compare crime rates for cities within the Southern California region to the average level of crime for U.S. cities with a population size above 25,000.2 We refer to these as standardized crime rates. We first compute crime rates by dividing the number of crimes by the most recent estimate of the population in the city. We standardize this value, and therefore a city that has a crime rate at the average value for the nation will have a standardized crime rate value of 100. Cities with standardized crime rates greater than 100 are cities with crime rates greater than the national average; likewise, cities with standardized crime rates less than 100 are cities with crime rates that are below the average for U.S. cities. For example, a city with a value of 150 for the
1 We do not include rape in the analyses. Definitional differences, as well as policy differences, can lead to differences in the reported level of rapes across cities that do not represent true differences in the level of this type of crime. Other crimes are less dependent on such reporting decisions. 2 We do not include smaller cities in this computation, since some could have extreme crime rates given the small population in the denominator. standardized aggravated assault rate measure has 50% more aggravated assaults than the average U.S. city in that year. And a city with a value of 60 has an aggravated assault rate that is only 60% as large as that of the national average (or, we might say their aggravated assault rate is 40% less than the average for cities in the U.S.). Violent crime combines aggravated assaults, robberies, and homicides. Property crime combines burglaries, motor vehicle thefts, and larcenies.
In several analyses in the report, we computed the crime rate averaged over a 3-year period (2015-17). This is done to smooth out possible random year-to-year fluctuations in crime that might occur. While some year-to-year changes in crime reflect true change in the city, others can be due to idiosyncratic events in a particular year. These 3-year moving averages adjust for these fluctuations.
For computing the change in overall violent or property crime rates, we compute the difference in these standardized crime rates.
Like last year’s SSCR, we have a section (part of Chapter 2) that adjusts crime rates based on the socio-demographic characteristics of the city. Thus, these rankings adjust the level of crime based on certain demographic characteristics that criminologists know are associated with crime in cities. These adjusted values show the level of crime beyond what might be expected given the socio-demographic characteristics of the particular city.
And, like last year, we have a section that forecasts the expected violent and property crime rate for cities in Southern California. We used a statistical model that allows us to forecast the level of violent crime and property crime in the Southern California cities next year (2019). Our statistical models take into account the level of crime in these cities over the last 15 years, and how it has been changing, to forecast how much violent and property crime there will be in these cities. We assessed the quality of our projection using crime data from 1970 to 2010, and found that the average correlation between our projection of the property crime rate and the actual property crime rate was .89 over these prior years. The average correlation of our violent crime projection with the actual level was .95 over these prior years. Thus, our model appears to do a reasonable job projecting crime levels forward in time. Nonetheless, we caution the reader that the forecasts for individual cities are simply predictions and estimates.
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Chapter 2. Violent and property crime
Top 10 cities with cities with highest violent or property crime rates in 2017
Violent crime
In 2017, the city of San Bernardino had the highest violent crime rate across all cities in Southern California, with a standardized violent crime rate of 380. The typical U.S. city had a violent crime rate of 100, meaning that San Bernardino’s violent crime rate was 280% higher than the average level of reported violent crimes in cities across the U.S. (380 – 100 = 280).
Barstow had the second highest violent crime rate, 270% higher than the average U.S. Notably, the cities of Los Angeles, Lancaster, and Santa Monica were ranked among the top ten cities with the highest violent crime rate in 2017, rising in their rankings from the previous year. Nine out of ten cities with the highest rates of violent crime are in either Los Angeles or San Bernardino counties.
Property crime
The city of Commerce, in Los Angeles County, had the highest rate of property crime of all cities in Southern California in 2017, about 280% higher the average U.S. city and 112% higher than the city with the second highest property crime rate, Signal Hill. The cities of Beverly Hills, Santa Monica, and Blythe ranked among the cities in Southern California with the highest rate of property crime, representing an increase in rankings from the previous year. Eight of the ten cities with the highest rates of property crime in 2017 were in Los Angeles county.
Three cities – Barstow, Commerce, and Santa Monica – appear in the top ten lists for both violent and property crime. In the tables below, we present the top ten cities with the highest rates of violent and property crime, respectively, along with city population.
Below we also present maps showing which cities have the highest or lowest standardized violent or property crime rates (averaged from 2015-17). In these maps, the cities with the highest crime rates are shown in red, the second highest are in orange, the third highest are in yellow, those with the second lowest are shown in green, and those with the lowest are shown in blue.
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Top 10 cities with highest violent crime rate, 2017
Violent City County crime Population 1 SAN BERNARDINO San Bernardino 380.1 217259 2 BARSTOW San Bernardino 370.0 24028 3 COMPTON Los Angeles 350.6 97728 4 DESERT HOT SPRINGS Riverside 299.3 28717 5 COMMERCE Los Angeles 240.1 12994 6 LOS ANGELES Los Angeles 224.1 4007147 7 LANCASTER Los Angeles 223.4 160653 8 SANTA MONICA Los Angeles 223.3 92935 9 NEEDLES San Bernardino 217.4 5011 10 HUNTINGTON PARK Los Angeles 213.0 59004
Top 10 cities with highest property crime rate, 2017
Property City County crime Population 1 COMMERCE Los Angeles 380.3 12994 2 SIGNAL HILL Los Angeles 268.2 11757 3 SANTE FE SPRINGS Los Angeles 240.6 18339 4 BEVERLY HILLS Los Angeles 220.2 34781 5 CULVER CITY Los Angeles 201.3 39440 6 SANTA MONICA Los Angeles 198.1 92935 7 WEST HOLLYWOOD Los Angeles 193.5 37093 8 CERRITOS Los Angeles 187.9 50809 9 BLYTHE Riverside 173.1 19572 10 BARSTOW San Bernardino 173.1 24028
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Top 10 cities with highest violent and property crime rates averaged over 2015-2017
These lists show the cities with the highest crime rates, averaged over the last three years (2015-17). This takes into account unusual yearly fluctuations. This list shows that Compton has the highest violent crime rate, with 477% more violent crime events than the typical U.S. city over the last three years. Compton also is in the top 10 for property crimes.
Commerce has the highest average property crime rate over the last three years (173% more property crime than the average city in the nation), as well as one of the higher violent crime rates. San Bernardino is in the top 5 for both violent and property crime, and Pomona is in the top 10 for each.
Top 10 cities with highest violent crime rate (based on average over 2015-2017)
Violent City County crime Population 1 COMPTON Los Angeles 577.5 97728 2 INGLEWOOD Los Angeles 409.1 110811 3 COMMERCE Los Angeles 387.8 12994 4 SAN BERNARDINO San Bernardino 347.4 217259 5 LOS ANGELES Los Angeles 345.1 4007147 6 POMONA Los Angeles 326.0 153066 7 HAWTHORNE Los Angeles 308.7 88664 8 LYNWOOD Los Angeles 286.2 71453 9 PALMDALE Los Angeles 285.9 158094 10 BELLFLOWER Los Angeles 274.9 77984
Top 10 cities with highest property crime rate (based on average over 2015-2017)
Property City County crime Population 1 COMMERCE Los Angeles 272.9 12994 2 EL CENTRO Imperial 261.8 44458 3 SAN BERNARDINO San Bernardino 258.2 217259 4 PALM SPRINGS Riverside 242.7 48193 5 SANTE FE SPRINGS Los Angeles 233.4 18339 6 COMPTON Los Angeles 224.6 97728 7 POMONA Los Angeles 213.3 153066 8 PERRIS Riverside 193.5 77626 9 NEEDLES San Bernardino 189.1 5011 10 SIGNAL HILL Los Angeles 185.2 11757
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Figure 1. Average adjusted violent crime rate (2015-17) for Southern California cities
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Top 10 cities with lowest violent or property crime rates in 2017 The city of Indian Wells, in Riverside County, had the lowest rate of violent crime of all cities in Southern California in 2017, nearly 95% lower than the average rate of violent crime across all U.S. cities and moving 50 slots in the rankings from the previous year. Palos Verdes Estates held the second lowest rate of violent crime in 2017. Four of the ten cities with the lowest rates of violent crime are in Orange County.
Imperial, in Imperial County, had the lowest rate of property crime in 2017, about 85% lower than the average rate of property crime in U.S. cities. Seven of the ten cities with the lowest rates of property crime are in either Orange County or Ventura County. Notably, four cities – Palos Verdes Estates, Ojai, Imperial, and Rancho Santa Margarita – are among the cities with the lowest property and violent crime rates in 2017.
Irvine is the only city with more than 200,000 population on these lists.
Top 10 cities with lowest violent crime rate, 2017
Violent City County crime Population 1 INDIAN WELLS Riverside 5.4 5408 2 PALOS VERDES ESTATES Los Angeles 6.5 13611 3 VILLA PARK Orange 9.9 5933 4 OJAI Ventura 15.5 7603 5 IRVINE Orange 18.0 276115 6 IMPERIAL Imperial 18.4 17629 7 RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA Orange 19.2 49144 8 YORBA LINDA Orange 19.2 68889 9 SOUTH PASADENA Los Angeles 20.4 25961 10 MURRIETA Riverside 20.8 113016
Top 10 cities with lowest property crime rate, 2017
Property City County crime Population 1 IMPERIAL Imperial 14.6 17629 2 OJAI Ventura 24.9 7603 3 RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA Orange 28.1 49144 4 FILLMORE Ventura 31.9 15708 5 ALISO VIEJO Orange 31.9 51984 6 LAGUNA NIGUEL Orange 36.7 65700 7 CUDAHY Los Angeles 37.3 24146 8 LAKE FOREST Orange 37.8 84224 9 MOORPARK Ventura 38.0 36813 10 PALOS VERDES ESTATES Los Angeles 38.7 13611
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Top 10 cities with lowest violent and property crime rates averaged over 2015-2017
These lists show the cities with the lowest violent and property crime rates averaged over the last three years. Palos Verdes Estates has the lowest violent crime rate, while the city of Rancho Santa Margarita has the lowest property crime rate over the last three years.
Three cities are among the lowest in both violent and property crime: Aliso Viejo, Palos Verdes Estates, and Rancho Santa Margarita. Irvine is the largest city on these lists and the only one with more than 100,000 population.
Top 10 cities with lowest violent crime rate (based on average over 2015-2017)
Violent City County crime Population 1 PALOS VERDES ESTATES Los Angeles 11.2 13611 2 INDIAN WELLS Riverside 14.1 5408 3 RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA Orange 17.9 49144 4 LA HABRA HEIGHTS Los Angeles 20.2 5426 5 LA CANADA FLINTRIDGE Los Angeles 21.4 20480 6 ALISO VIEJO Orange 23.2 51984 7 IRVINE Orange 23.5 276115 8 YORBA LINDA Orange 24.1 68889 9 CHINO HILLS San Bernardino 24.2 79480 10 SOLANA BEACH San Diego 26.4 13542
Top 10 cities with lowest property crime rate (based on average over 2015-2017)
Property City County crime Population 1 RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA Orange 18.9 49144 2 ALISO VIEJO Orange 21.5 51984 3 MOORPARK Ventura 24.9 36813 4 PALOS VERDES ESTATES Los Angeles 28.1 13611 5 LAKE FOREST Orange 28.7 84224 6 SIERRA MADRE Los Angeles 30.6 11080 7 LAGUNA NIGUEL Orange 31.0 65700 8 POWAY San Diego 32.4 50438 9 SAN MARCOS San Diego 33.1 97290 10 SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO Orange 38.0 36532
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Figure 2. Average adjusted property crime rate (2015-17) for Southern California cities
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Adjusted Crime rates based on city characteristics
In this section we adjust these crime rates for the characteristics of the city. Criminologists are well-aware that cities with certain characteristics typically have higher rates of crime. For example, cities with high levels of poverty tend to have higher rates of crime. Therefore, in this section we adjust the level of crime in the city based upon a number of these characteristics.
Specifically, we adjust for the following city-level characteristics: 1) percent aged 16 to 29 (the most crime-prone population); 2) racial/ethnic composition (percent Asian, percent black, percent Latino, and the level of racial/ethnic heterogeneity); 3) percent immigrants; 4) average household income; 5) level of income inequality; 6) unemployment rate; 7) percent aged 16 to 19 who are drop outs from school; 8) residential stability (the average length of residence for renters, and for owners); 9) percent vacant units; 10) ratio of adults to children (a measure of social control); 11) population density of the city; 12) population of the city; 13) average age of the housing stock.
Adjusting the level of crime for these factors is somewhat analogous to adjusting school performance scores based on the demographic composition of the school. Thus, a city that is particularly advantaged based on these demographic characteristics, and yet has an average level of crime, would actually have a relatively high adjusted level of crime, given that the level of crime is higher than would be expected based on the city’s demographic characteristics.
As such we might refer to this as the unexpected level of crime. That is, these are cities that have either much higher levels of violent or property crime than we might have expected based on their socio-demographic characteristics, or much lower levels of violent or property crime than expected. Why cities might differ from what is expected could be due to many different reasons. We are not able to determine why these cities differ from expectations.
Top 10 cities with highest adjusted violent or property crime rates in 2017
There are notable differences between the lists in this section and the earlier ones that did not adjust for the city characteristics. On the one hand, we earlier saw that San Bernardino has the highest violent crime rate in the region. Yet, this list shows that when we adjust for the socio-demographic characteristics of San Bernardino that make it more vulnerable to violence, it no longer remains among the ten highest violent crime cities in the region. On the other hand, Barstow, which has the second highest violent crime rate, remains among the highest violent crime cities even after taking into account the city’s characteristics. The relatively affluent beach cities of Laguna Beach, Del Mar, Malibu, and Manhattan Beach have relatively high adjusted violent crime rates compared to what we would expect given the characteristics of these cities.
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For property crime, we find similar patterns. Whereas Commerce has the highest unadjusted property crime rate in the region, its level of property crime is not among the ten highest violent crime cities in the region after adjusting for the city’s socio-demographic characteristics. The relatively advantaged cities of Hermosa Beach and Del Mar have relatively high property crime rates after adjusting for city characteristics.
Top 10 cities with highest adjusted violent crime rate in 2017
Adjusted violent City County crime Population 1 LAGUNA BEACH Orange 93.5 23261 2 ARTESIA Los Angeles 84.8 16933 3 DEL MAR San Diego 80.0 4398 4 BEAUMONT Riverside 76.2 46856 5 BARSTOW San Bernardino 73.3 24028 6 MALIBU Los Angeles 70.1 12918 7 BREA Orange 68.1 43000 8 MANHATTAN BEACH Los Angeles 62.4 35843 9 HAWAIIAN GARDENS Los Angeles 60.6 14505 10 DESERT HOT SPRINGS Riverside 58.9 28717
Top 10 cities with highest adjusted property crime rate in 2017
Adjusted property City County crime Population 1 HERMOSA BEACH Los Angeles 82.7 19836 2 EL CENTRO Imperial 79.6 44458 3 VENTURA Ventura 66.6 110006 4 CALEXICO Imperial 65.5 40499 5 OXNARD Ventura 63.3 209513 6 BARSTOW San Bernardino 61.0 24028 7 WESTLAKE VILLAGE Los Angeles 59.6 8476 8 COACHELLA Riverside 56.2 45646 9 DEL MAR San Diego 56.0 4398 10 BREA Orange 49.5 43000
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Top 10 cities with highest adjusted violent and property crime rates averaged over 2015-2017
When assessing the cities with the highest average crime rates over the last 3 years, we see that only two of the top ten cities from the unadjusted list remain on this list. Whereas Compton and Inglewood are the top two cities for raw violent crime rate, after adjustments they no longer appear on this top 10 list. After adjusting for the city composition, only Commerce remains among the highest violent crime cities over the last three years.
Based on these adjusted rates, relatively advantaged cities such as Diamond Bar, Westlake Village, and Rolling Hills Estates have the highest unexpected average violent crime rates over 2015-17. Beach communities such as Manhattan Beach also appear on this list.
Pomona has the highest adjusted property crime rate, and beach cities such as Huntington Beach, Hermosa Beach, and Manhattan Beach have high property crime rates after adjustment. However, cities such as Commerce and El Centro, which ranked among the highest cities in the unadjusted property crime 3-year list, do not appear on this list.
Top 10 cities with highest adjusted violent crime rate (based on average over 2015-2017)
Adjusted violent City County crime Population 1 BEAUMONT Riverside 108.5 46856 2 DIAMOND BAR Los Angeles 96.0 56996 3 LAKE ELSINORE Riverside 80.9 66136 4 IMPERIAL Imperial 78.3 17629 5 WESTLAKE VILLAGE Los Angeles 76.8 8476 6 ROLLING HILLS ESTATES Los Angeles 74.1 8259 7 MANHATTAN BEACH Los Angeles 71.9 35843 8 COMMERCE Los Angeles 71.7 12994 9 SANTE FE SPRINGS Los Angeles 67.8 18339 10 AGOURA HILLS Los Angeles 66.2 20814
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Top 10 cities with highest adjusted property crime rate (based on average over 2015-2017)
Adjusted property City County crime Population 1 POMONA Los Angeles 81.0 153066 2 EL CENTRO Imperial 80.0 44458 3 DIAMOND BAR Los Angeles 74.4 56996 4 BEAUMONT Riverside 74.1 46856 5 FONTANA San Bernardino 73.2 211782 6 LAKE ELSINORE Riverside 72.5 66136 7 HUNTINGTON BEACH Orange 72.3 202244 8 HERMOSA BEACH Los Angeles 65.6 19836 9 SAN BERNARDINO San Bernardino 62.5 217259 10 MANHATTAN BEACH Los Angeles 59.2 35843
Top 10 cities with lowest adjusted violent or property crime rates in 2017
While the cities of Ojai and Villa Park were among the top 5 in low unadjusted violent crime rates in 2017, they are also near the top in low adjusted rates. However, cities such as Indian Wells and Irvine do not appear on this list of lowest violent crime rates after adjusting for city characteristics. The cities of South Pasadena and Twentynine Palms have the 2nd and 4th lowest violent crime rates, respectively, after adjusting for their city characteristics.
It is particularly notable that whereas Inglewood has the second highest raw violent crime rate, it appears on this list with one of the lowest adjusted violent crime rates.
The cities of Imperial and Ojai were the top two cities with lowest raw property crime and also are the top two here after adjusting for city characteristics. However, the cities of Laguna Niguel and Aliso Viejo had among the lowest unadjusted property crime rates, but do not appear on this list after adjusting for city characteristics. The cities of Twentynine Palms, Sierra Madre, Holtville, Coronado, San Juan Capistrano, and Irvine all appear on this list after not appearing on the list of lowest unadjusted property crime rates.
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Top 10 cities with lowest adjusted violent crime rate in 2017
Adjusted violent City County crime Population 1 OJAI Ventura -146.8 7603 2 SOUTH PASADENA Los Angeles -124.9 25961 3 VILLA PARK Orange -93.6 5933 4 TWENTYNINE PALMS San Bernardino -87.0 26210 5 PALOS VERDES ESTATES Los Angeles -86.5 13611 6 SIERRA MADRE Los Angeles -80.8 11080 7 CALIMESA Riverside -76.8 8737 8 CORONADO San Diego -75.7 26294 9 INGLEWOOD Los Angeles -70.3 110811 10 IMPERIAL Imperial -68.3 17629
Top 10 cities with lowest adjusted property crime rate in 2017
Adjusted property City County crime Population 1 IMPERIAL Imperial -119.8 17629 2 OJAI Ventura -112.4 7603 3 TWENTYNINE PALMS San Bernardino -83.0 26210 4 SIERRA MADRE Los Angeles -80.3 11080 5 CUDAHY Los Angeles -73.6 24146 6 HOLTVILLE Imperial -63.3 6519 7 CORONADO San Diego -59.6 26294 8 SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO Orange -59.9 36532 9 IRVINE Orange -56.5 276115 10 RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA Orange -54.7 49144
Top 10 cities with lowest adjusted violent and property crime rates averaged over 2015-2017
There are sharp differences between this list of lowest adjusted violent crime rates over the last three years and the earlier unadjusted rates. Only one of the top 10 cities (Irvine) from the unadjusted list appears here. South Pasadena has the lowest adjusted violent crime rate over the last three years, after taking into account the city’s characteristics. The inland cities of Blythe, Holtville, Calexico, Yucaipa, Palm Beset, and Calimesa have particularly low adjusted violent crime rates over the last three years, whereas the big city (over 200,000 population) of Irvine in Orange County ranks fourth in lowest adjusted violent crime rates. 16
Turning to property crime, we see slightly different patterns. On the one hand, the relatively advantaged cities of Rancho Santa Margarita, Lake Forest, and Sierra Madre are among the top 5 in both adjusted and unadjusted crime rates. On the other hand, relatively disadvantaged cities such as Adelanto, Cudahy, and Bell suddenly appear among the top 5 cities with the lowest average property crime rate over the last three years, after adjusting for city characteristics.
Top 10 cities with lowest adjusted violent crime rate (based on average over 2015-2017)
Adjusted violent City County crime Population 1 SOUTH PASADENA Los Angeles -109.5 25961 2 BLYTHE Riverside -103.1 19572 3 HOLTVILLE Imperial -85.6 6519 4 IRVINE Orange -81.6 276115 5 CALEXICO Imperial -80.7 40499 6 YUCAIPA San Bernardino -79.9 53614 7 PALM DESERT Riverside -78.1 52845 8 SAN FERNANDO Los Angeles -78.8 24899 9 CALIMESA Riverside -77.6 8737 10 PORT HUENEME Ventura -74.1 22374
Top 10 cities with lowest adjusted property crime rate (based on average over 2015-2017)
Adjusted property City County crime Population 1 ADELANTO San Bernardino -111.2 33693 2 CUDAHY Los Angeles -81.5 24146 3 SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO Orange -79.7 36532 4 SIERRA MADRE Los Angeles -76.1 11080 5 BELL Los Angeles -75.7 35925 6 RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA Orange -73.6 49144 7 LAKE FOREST Orange -70.5 84224 8 SAN MARCOS San Diego -69.8 97290 9 LAGUNA HILLS Orange -63.1 31715 10 NATIONAL CITY San Diego -60.9 61574
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Chapter 3. Change in Violent and Property Crime in last 10 years
Top 10 cities with biggest increases in violent crime in last 1, 5, and 10 years
The tables below focus on the cities showing the largest increases in violent crime in recent years. We display three tables: 1) Top 10 with the largest increase in the last year (2016-2017); 2) Top 10 with the largest increase in the last five years (2012-2017); 3) Top 10 with the largest increase in the last ten years (2007-2017).
We also present maps throughout this section, and the following section, showing which cities have experienced the largest changes in standardized crime rates over the last five years. In these maps, the cities with the largest increases are shown in red, the second largest are in orange, the third largest are in yellow, those with the second largest decrease are shown in green, and those with the largest decreases are shown in blue.
In the last year, Santa Monica experienced the largest increase in violence. The city’s rate of violence went from about 60% above the national average to about 120% above the national average from 2016 to 2017. But, this is a recent jump, as the city does not appear on the top ten lists for the last 5 years or the last 10 years, and may therefore represent an anomaly. Alternatively, Compton has experienced the largest increase in violent crime over the last 5 years and the second largest increase over the last 10 years, but does not appear on the list for the most recent year. None of the top 10 cities with the largest increases in violent crime from 2016-2017 are among the top 10 for increases in rates of violence in the last 5 years.
Cities that are in the top 10 for largest increases in violence in the last 10 years but not in the list for more recent periods indicate that the rate of increase in violence has slowed. This includes cities such as Inglewood, Commerce, and Pasadena. The largest increases in violent crime over the last 5 years and last 10 years have overwhelmingly taken place in cities in Los Angeles and Riverside Counties. Indeed, six cities from Los Angeles County and three from Riverside County appear on the top 10 list for the last 10 years.
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Top 10 cities with largest increase in violent crime rate from 2015-2017
City County Change First year This year Population 1 SANTA MONICA Los Angeles 64.6 158.7 223.3 92935 2 IMPERIAL BEACH San Diego 62.5 79.4 141.9 27593 3 LA VERNE Los Angeles 51.9 31.1 83.0 32613 4 HOLTVILLE Imperial 49.6 63.3 112.9 6519 5 DESERT HOT SPRINGS Riverside 46.2 253.1 299.3 28717 6 BRAWLEY Imperial 37.6 159.0 196.7 26342 7 GLENDORA Los Angeles 29.7 43.2 72.8 52133 8 GRAND TERRACE San Bernardino 25.7 49.2 74.9 12584 9 DEL MAR San Diego 25.6 54.7 80.3 4398 10 VENTURA Ventura 25.1 97.9 123.1 110006
Top 10 cities with largest increase in violent crime rate in last 5 years (based on three-year moving averages)
City County Change First year This year Population 1 COMPTON Los Angeles 275.9 301.6 577.5 97728 2 LOS ANGELES Los Angeles 228.1 117.0 345.1 4007147 3 BEAUMONT Riverside 198.3 28.2 226.5 46856 4 LAKE ELSINORE Riverside 144.6 91.0 235.6 66136 5 PALM SPRINGS Riverside 143.5 108.7 252.2 48193 6 PERRIS Riverside 138.1 103.6 241.7 77626 7 BELLFLOWER Los Angeles 137.0 137.9 274.9 77984 8 PALMDALE Los Angeles 134.9 151.1 285.9 158094 9 POMONA Los Angeles 127.8 198.2 326.0 153066 10 VICTORVILLE San Bernardino 126.3 133.6 259.9 123284
Top 10 cities with largest increase in violent crime rate in last 10 years (based on three-year moving averages)
City County Change First year This year Population 1 INGLEWOOD Los Angeles 297.3 111.8 409.1 110811 2 COMPTON Los Angeles 280.6 296.9 577.5 97728 3 COMMERCE Los Angeles 233.5 154.3 387.8 12994 4 BEAUMONT Riverside 190.2 36.3 226.5 46856 5 BELLFLOWER Los Angeles 155.6 119.2 274.9 77984 6 VICTORVILLE San Bernardino 154.8 105.1 259.9 123284 7 LAKE ELSINORE Riverside 146.2 89.4 235.6 66136 8 PASADENA Los Angeles 146.0 115.5 261.5 142891 9 PERRIS Riverside 140.2 101.5 241.7 77626 10 POMONA Los Angeles 130.8 195.2 326.0 153066
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Figure 3. Change in average adjusted violent crime rate (2015-17) for Southern California cities
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Top 10 cities with biggest increases in property crime in last 1, 5, and 10 years
These next tables and paragraphs highlight cities which experienced the biggest increases in property crime rates. First, Beverly Hills in the County of Los Angeles experienced the largest increase in property crime from 2015-2017. Although this dramatic increase in the crime rate may be alarming, it is important to note that this city does not rank among the top 10 cities with the largest increases in property crime rates in the last 5 and 10 years, suggesting that such change may be the result of a short- term fluctuation. The pattern for other cities with the largest increases in property crime rates from 2015-2017 appears to be similar to Beverly Hills: none of the top 10 cities which experienced the largest short-term increases in property crime rates also experienced the largest long-term increases.
In terms of geography, we find a split distribution of cities experiencing short-term property crime rate increases across Southern California: 4 cities are located in the County of Los Angeles, 2 cities are located in the Counties of Riverside and San Bernardino, respectively, 1 city is located in the County of Orange, and 1 city is located in the County of San Diego. Although a similar pattern emerges for the geography of cities ranking highest in the longer-term trends, it is worthwhile to note that more cities (3) with the largest increases in property crime rates in the last 5 years are located in the County of Riverside. Most cities (4) with the largest increases in the last 10 years are located in the County of Los Angeles.
Finally, we find that several cities in the Southern California region experienced large increases in property crime rates in both the last 5 and 10 years. At the same time, not all cities rank equally in both long-term trends: whereas El Centro, Pomona, and Lake Elsinore share the same ranking in the last 5 and 10 years, San Bernardino, Fontana, Perris, and Huntington Beach do not. For example, San Bernardino ranked 1st for the largest increase in property crime in the last 5 years, but 10th for the largest increase in the last 10 years. Huntington Beach ranked 10th for the largest increase in property crime in the last 5 years, but 5th for the largest increase in the last 10 years. Although there is some fluctuation in these cities’ rankings across temporal trends, the results nonetheless suggest that longer term dynamics may be driving the property crime rate upward in these cities. All cities which ranked in the top 10 for largest increases in property crime rates in the last 5 and 10 years have above average property crime rates this year.
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Top 10 cities with largest increase in property crime rate from 2015-2017
City County Change First year This year Population 1 BEVERLY HILLS Los Angeles 51.5 168.6 220.2 34781 2 INDIAN WELLS Riverside 38.0 85.7 123.8 5408 3 LA VERNE Los Angeles 28.0 70.9 98.9 32613 4 BLYTHE Riverside 22.7 150.5 173.1 19572 5 SOUTH EL MONTE Los Angeles 22.0 115.0 137.0 21012 6 SANTA MONICA Los Angeles 18.8 179.4 198.1 92935 7 CHINO HILLS San Bernardino 18.7 53.5 72.1 79480 8 SEAL BEACH Orange 18.4 92.1 110.5 24495 9 LEMON GROVE San Diego 17.3 78.7 96.0 27113 10 NEEDLES San Bernardino 15.5 134.0 149.5 5011
Top 10 cities with largest increase in property crime rate in last 5 years (based on three-year moving averages)
City County Change First year This year Population 1 SAN BERNARDINO San Bernardino 150.4 107.8 258.2 217259 2 EL CENTRO Imperial 141.4 120.4 261.8 44458 3 POMONA Los Angeles 137.9 75.4 213.3 153066 4 COMPTON Los Angeles 123.5 101.1 224.6 97728 5 FONTANA San Bernardino 110.5 51.9 162.4 211782 6 PALM SPRINGS Riverside 105.7 137.0 242.7 48193 7 LAKE ELSINORE Riverside 99.9 79.3 179.2 66136 8 PALMDALE Los Angeles 94.8 58.7 153.5 158094 9 PERRIS Riverside 93.9 99.6 193.5 77626 10 HUNTINGTON BEACH Orange 70.7 91.2 161.9 202244
Top 10 cities with largest increase in property crime rate in last 10 years (based on three-year moving averages)
City County Change First year This year Population 1 COMPTON Los Angeles 170.0 54.7 224.6 97728 2 EL CENTRO Imperial 162.2 99.6 261.8 44458 3 POMONA Los Angeles 140.3 73.0 213.3 153066 4 COMMERCE Los Angeles 130.3 142.6 272.9 12994 5 HUNTINGTON BEACH Orange 122.9 38.9 161.9 202244 6 PERRIS Riverside 122.9 70.6 193.5 77626 7 LAKE ELSINORE Riverside 116.0 63.2 179.2 66136 8 FONTANA San Bernardino 111.7 50.7 162.4 211782 9 INGLEWOOD Los Angeles 92.9 60.1 153.1 110811 10 SAN BERNARDINO San Bernardino 89.9 168.4 258.2 217259
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Figure 4. Change in average adjusted property crime rate (2015-17) for Southern California cities
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Top 10 cities with biggest decreases in violent crime in last 1, 5, and 10 years
These next tables review the cities experiencing the largest relative decrease in violent crime. The crime levels that are shown are standardized to the national average for a particular year. Therefore, some of the cities on this list could appear to have “higher” crime even though they are among those with the biggest decreases in violent crime. They actually have experienced decreases, and these standardized measures simply obscure this fact.
Turning to the table showing the top 10 cities with the largest decrease in violent crime from 2015 to 2017, we see a diverse mix of cities from counties across the Southern California region. Four of the cities are in San Bernardino County, including the largest decreases in Barstow and Needles, which have fallen somewhat from very high levels. Eastvale and Twentynine Palms have gone from just above the national average to a level well below the average.
Moving on to the table showing the top 10 cities with the largest decrease in violent crime in the last 5 years, we see cities from counties across the Southern California region sustaining more long-term decreases in rates of violence. The small city of Cudahy in the County of Los Angeles has experienced the largest drop in violent crime over the last 5 years, going from about 165% above the national average to near the average level of violence for the nation. Calexico, Duarte, and Anaheim have all gone from violence levels 40-50% above the national average to levels below the average.
The largest long-term decrease in violent crime in the last 10 years has occurred in Hawaiian Gardens, San Fernando, and the Westside cities of Culver City and Santa Monica. Notably, eight of the top 10 cities experiencing these more long-term decreases in violence are in the County of Los Angeles.
Also worth highlighting is that the city of Duarte has enjoyed sizeable decreases in violent crime rates in the last 5 years and in the last 10 years. Duarte therefore maintains a steady position among cities in the Southern California region with regard to more long-term drops in violent crime rates.
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Top 10 cities with largest decrease in violent crime rate from 2015-2017
City County Change First year This year Population 1 BARSTOW San Bernardino -114.6 483.4 370.0 24028 2 NEEDLES San Bernardino -84.3 301.0 217.4 5011 3 EASTVALE Riverside -83.0 108.9 25.9 62422 4 COMMERCE Los Angeles -81.0 321.1 240.1 12994 5 HEMET Riverside -74.5 231.5 158.0 85166 6 CALEXICO Imperial -73.9 136.8 64.7 40499 7 TWENTYNINE PALMS San Bernardino -65.1 109.8 44.9 26210 8 SAN BERNARDINO San Bernardino -55.5 434.5 380.1 217259 9 BELL GARDENS Los Angeles -49.5 117.1 68.6 42930 10 SIERRA MADRE Los Angeles -46.0 67.3 21.3 11080
Top 10 cities with largest decrease in violent crime rate in last 5 years (based on three-year moving averages)
City County Change First year This year Population 1 CUDAHY Los Angeles -155.4 266.5 111.9 24146 2 DESERT HOT SPRINGS Riverside -112.4 354.2 242.7 28717 3 CALEXICO Imperial -106.3 153.1 47.4 40499 4 STANTON Orange -89.2 179.3 90.4 38767 5 OCEANSIDE San Diego -80.9 219.3 140.2 176815 6 DUARTE Los Angeles -75.0 150.1 75.1 21877 7 ANAHEIM Orange -59.3 139.0 80.3 353400 8 ARTESIA Los Angeles -56.6 251.1 195.7 16933 9 ONTARIO San Bernardino -55.9 212.3 158.3 174724 10 CARLSBAD San Diego -53.5 98.9 46.4 115344
Top 10 cities with largest decrease in violent crime rate in last 10 years (based on three-year moving averages)
City County Change First year This year Population 1 HAWAIIAN GARDENS Los Angeles -110.6 287.5 178.1 14505 2 SAN FERNANDO Los Angeles -51.5 164.9 114.4 24899 3 CULVER CITY Los Angeles -46.4 173.3 127.8 39440 4 SANTA MONICA Los Angeles -33.7 169.8 137.5 92935 5 BEVERLY HILLS Los Angeles -31.9 127.5 97.5 34781 6 SAN JACINTO Riverside -30.0 149.0 119.0 47932 7 NATIONAL CITY San Diego -26.6 184.7 159.3 61574 8 SANTA CLARITA Los Angeles -26.8 69.9 44.7 216350 9 DUARTE Los Angeles -25.2 100.0 75.1 21877 10 ALHAMBRA Los Angeles -25.7 99.9 75.6 85865
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Top 10 cities with biggest decreases in property crime in last 1, 5, and 10 years
These next tables and paragraphs highlight cities which experienced the biggest decreases in property crime rates. First, Palm Springs in the County of Riverside experienced the largest decrease in property crime from 2015-2017. At the same time, Palm Springs did not rank in the list of cities with the largest decreases in property crime rates in the last 5 and 10 years, suggesting that such change may be the result of a short-term fluctuation. Indeed, no cities which experienced the largest decreases in property crime rates during this short-term period ranked in the lists of cities which experienced the largest decreases in the last 5 and 10 years.
In terms of geography, we find a split distribution of cities experiencing short-term property crime rate decreases across Southern California: 3 cities are located in the County of Los Angeles, 3 cities are located in the County of Riverside, and the remaining 4 cities are each located in the Counties of Orange, Imperial, San Bernardino, and San Diego. At the same time, proportionally more cities in the counties of Orange (2) and San Diego (2) experienced the largest decreases in property crime rates in both the last 5 and 10 years.
Finally, we find that several cities in the Southern California region experienced large decreases in property crime rates in both the last 5 and 10 years. For example, Cerritos ranked 1st for the largest decrease in property crime rates in both the last 5 and 10 years. The remaining cities which ranked in both lists, however, did not share the same ranking across trends. For example, Desert Hot Springs ranked 3rd for the largest decrease in property crime in the last 5 years, but 9th for the largest decrease in the last 10 years. Carlsbad ranked 4th for the largest decrease in property crime in the last 5 years, but 5th for the largest decrease in the last 10 years. Although there is some fluctuation in these cities’ rankings across temporal trends, the results nonetheless suggest that longer term dynamics may be driving property crime downward in these cities. Cerritos and Desert Hot Springs both have above average property crime rates this year.
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Top 10 cities with largest decrease in property crime rate from 2015-2017
City County Change First year This year Population 1 PALM SPRINGS Riverside -69.7 239.7 171.5 48193 2 EL CENTRO Imperial -46.0 218.3 172.3 44458 3 ORANGE Orange -43.6 119.5 77.1 141130 4 ARTESIA Los Angeles -38.2 152.2 114.4 16933 5 EASTVALE Riverside -38.2 126.7 88.9 62422 6 SIGNAL HILL Los Angeles -38.4 305.7 268.2 11757 7 LA MESA San Diego -32.4 114.7 83.1 60425 8 RANCHO MIRAGE Riverside -29.0 160.3 131.2 18347 9 SANTE FE SPRINGS Los Angeles -28.2 268.4 240.6 18339 10 BARSTOW San Bernardino -26.8 198.3 173.1 24028
Top 10 cities with largest decrease in property crime rate in last 5 years (based on three-year moving averages)
City County Change First year This year Population 1 CERRITOS Los Angeles -119.2 241.5 122.7 50809 2 SANTA ANA Orange -76.4 147.7 72.1 335699 3 DESERT HOT SPRINGS Riverside -61.6 164.1 103.7 28717 4 CARLSBAD San Diego -53.1 107.4 54.5 115344 5 RIALTO San Bernardino -51.7 129.3 79.0 103980 6 SANTA MONICA Los Angeles -45.1 158.6 113.6 92935 7 LOS ALAMITOS Orange -39.3 100.7 61.9 11671 8 DUARTE Los Angeles -36.7 86.2 50.9 21877 9 ADELANTO San Bernardino -32.1 80.6 48.7 33693 10 OCEANSIDE San Diego -31.7 111.3 81.1 176815
Top 10 cities with largest decrease in property crime rate in last 10 years (based on three-year moving averages)
City County Change First year This year Population 1 CERRITOS Los Angeles -46.0 168.7 122.7 50809 2 NATIONAL CITY San Diego -42.4 121.4 79.8 61574 3 INDIAN WELLS Riverside -32.8 118.9 87.7 5408 4 SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO Orange -24.5 61.5 38.0 36532 5 CARLSBAD San Diego -23.1 77.4 54.5 115344 6 CUDAHY Los Angeles -22.9 59.2 38.1 24146 7 ANAHEIM Orange -21.6 111.3 90.9 353400 8 LA PUENTE Los Angeles -18.0 63.5 45.5 40467 9 DESERT HOT SPRINGS Riverside -17.5 120.2 103.7 28717 10 PALOS VERDES ESTATES Los Angeles -15.5 42.6 28.1 13611
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Chapter 4. Violent and Property Crime long-term change and projections
Changes over last 20 years in violent and property crime for U.S. cities
Given the discussion in the media about long-term trends in crime rates across U.S. cities, we show how violent and property crime have changed in U.S. cities over the last 20 years. The following chart shows how violent and property crime rates have changed since then in U.S. and Southern California cities with at least 10,000 population. The chart highlights that whereas the property and violent crime rates were higher in Southern California cities compared to U.S. cities 20 years ago, they have exhibited an even sharper downward trajectory compared to the U.S. and are now comparatively lower.
Long-term trend in crime for U.S. cities and Southern California cities 800 4500
4000 700
3500 600
3000 500
2500
400
2000
300 1500
200 1000
100 500
0 0 1998 2003 2008 2013 2010 2015
National violent crime rate (right axis) So Cal violent crime rate (right axis) National property crime rate (left axis) So Cal property crime rate (left axis)
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Projections of violent and property crime for 2019
We next present forecasted violent and property crime rates in Southern California cities for 2019 based on our statistical model.
We first present the expected change in all cities in the region from 2017 to 2019. We then describe how the model projects changes in the cities in each county. We remind the reader that the forecasts for individual cities have a confidence interval around the predicted value, and therefore reflect our “best guess” of the level of crime for 2019.
County-level changes in violent and property crime
In general, our projection model forecasts an overall relative drop in both violent and property crime in the region from 2017 to 2019. Compared to the violent crime rate in 2017, our model projects an average decrease across cities of 11.7% in 2019. Our model also projects a 1% decrease in property crime events from 2017 to 2019.
Our projection model forecasts decreasing violent and property crime rates in 80% and 53% of Southern California cities, respectively.
Turning to the individual counties, our model forecasts that cities in Los Angeles County will generally fare similarly to the region overall, although with slightly larger crime drops. The model forecasts a 17% decrease in violent crime and a 1.4% decrease in property crime in 2019, on average, for cities in Los Angeles County. 88% of cities are projected to experience a decrease in violent crime, whereas 57% are projected to experience a decrease in property crime.
The model forecasts that Orange County cities will experience decreases in crime. Cities in Orange County are projected to have, on average, 14% less violent crime and 2.6% less property crime. 82% of cities are projected to experience decreasing violent crime and 61% are projected to experience decreasing property crime.
Riverside County cities are forecasted to experience slight upticks for crime. They are forecasted for a 4% increase in violence compared to 2017, and a 5% increase in property crime compared to 2017. Whereas 67% of cities in the County of Riverside are projected to experience fewer crimes against persons, 41% of cities are expected to have fewer crimes against property.
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San Bernardino County cities, on average, are projected to experience a 2.5% decrease in violent crime but a 1.6% increase in property crime from 2017 to 2019. 68% of the cities are projected to experience a decrease in violent crime, and 41% for property crime.
San Diego County cities are forecasted to experience drops in crime levels. Our model forecasts a 24% decrease in violent crime, on average, across San Diego cities, with 94% of cities projected to see decreasing levels of violence. Our model forecasts a 3% decrease in property crime, on average, across cities in San Diego County, with 67% of cities expected to see decreasing levels of non-violent acquisitive crimes.
Finally, whereas Ventura County cities are projected to experience an increase in violent crime of 2.2% more than 2017, property crime is projected to decrease nearly 9% on average across these 10 cities.
Projected change for cities in the counties of the region from 2017 to 2019
Average Average Percent cities Percent cities projected projected projected projected change in change in decreasing decreasing County violent crime property crime violent crime property crime Region -11.7% -1.0% 80.3% 53.2%
Los Angeles -17.0% -1.4% 87.7% 56.8% Orange -13.8% -2.6% 81.8% 60.6% Riverside 4.2% 4.9% 66.7% 29.2% San Bernardino -2.5% 1.6% 68.2% 40.9% San Diego -24.2% -3.1% 94.4% 66.7% Ventura 2.2% -9.1% 50.0% 60.0%
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Appendix
In this Appendix, we display the is a city with no violent crime, whereas 400 adjusted crime rates for all cities in each of the indicates a city with a violent crime rate 300% six major counties in the region. We present higher than the regional average (400 -100 = the results for each county separately, 300). For a few of the Figures, we had to beginning with Los Angeles County. The first extend the scale if certain cities had particularly table for each county shows the adjusted crime high violent crime rates. rate in the most recent year (2017) for all cities in the county. The second table shows the To understand how to interpret the average adjusted crime rate over the three tables, note that in the first table for Los most recent years (2015-17) for all cities in the Angeles County, the city of Artesia has a county. standardized aggravated assault rate of 152, indicating that in 2017 their aggravated assault After the two tables, we then display rate was 52% higher than the average city in the Figures showing the 10 year trajectory of the region. The burglary rate in Artesia was 159.5% violent crime rate for the cities in the county. higher than the average city in the nation (259.5 Each Figure presents the trajectories for a – 100 = 159.5). Artesia’s homicide in 2017 was geographic cluster of cities. A map in each 177.6% higher than the national average. section shows the geographic clustering of cities However, its larceny rate was just 10.67% for these figures. For each Figure, the scale is higher than the national average. typically from 0 to 400. Thus, the bottom value
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Los Angeles County
Standardized crime rates for cities in Los Angeles County, 2017 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop 1 AGOURA HILLS 22.5 22.2 0.0 86.8 43.8 50.8 20814 2 ALHAMBRA 33.8 119.7 107.9 107.5 143.3 82.0 85865 3 ARCADIA 37.4 109.8 0.0 209.5 71.2 92.0 58883 4 ARTESIA 188.0 211.4 273.7 229.8 191.1 78.9 16933 5 BALDWIN PARK 140.5 134.1 90.7 96.2 194.5 58.2 76636 6 BELL 173.4 250.7 0.0 108.3 191.6 54.8 35925 7 BELL GARDENS 50.2 126.4 107.9 51.5 339.7 45.1 42930 8 BELLFLOWER 110.5 233.9 148.5 136.3 295.1 77.3 77984 9 BEVERLY HILLS 78.1 166.0 0.0 293.9 129.7 214.5 34781 10 BURBANK 65.8 94.9 0.0 86.3 106.7 126.8 104622 11 CALABASAS 13.5 42.8 0.0 65.9 35.6 57.8 24295 12 CARSON 141.5 206.1 199.3 131.0 249.9 76.7 92992 13 CERRITOS 46.1 161.3 91.2 280.8 175.8 168.3 50809 14 CLAREMONT 45.2 95.6 0.0 195.8 85.5 92.6 36246 15 COMMERCE 212.6 355.4 178.3 256.4 1210.0 304.0 12994 16 COMPTON 320.5 521.0 497.9 107.0 359.1 81.2 97728 17 COVINA 93.3 121.0 95.2 147.9 173.2 82.8 48674 18 CUDAHY 81.4 138.7 0.0 43.2 151.0 21.8 24146 19 CULVER CITY 60.5 383.5 0.0 134.1 124.8 225.3 39440 20 DIAMOND BAR 22.2 50.6 0.0 170.0 56.0 58.8 56996 21 DOWNEY 71.8 185.1 61.2 132.4 307.1 93.0 113511 22 DUARTE 89.9 95.0 211.8 83.7 114.6 58.2 21877 23 EL MONTE 88.7 181.9 99.7 150.4 273.8 69.7 116168 24 EL SEGUNDO 38.7 143.2 136.8 274.9 218.0 141.4 16932 25 GARDENA 120.5 417.7 153.8 149.0 273.8 63.7 60249 26 GLENDALE 25.9 72.4 34.3 62.6 71.4 64.4 202381 27 GLENDORA 72.8 73.1 0.0 121.0 91.8 128.1 52133 28 HAWAIIAN GARDENS 177.6 238.8 0.0 136.8 267.1 62.8 14505 29 HAWTHORNE 148.9 358.1 130.7 117.0 264.7 86.2 88664 30 HERMOSA BEACH 40.1 40.7 0.0 148.7 110.3 121.5 19836 31 HUNTINGTON PARK 146.0 385.5 157.1 90.5 543.8 86.6 59004 32 INGLEWOOD 142.4 405.3 271.8 112.9 329.8 74.9 110811 33 LA CANADA FLINTRIDGE 20.6 33.8 0.0 130.4 44.5 44.8 20480 34 LA HABRA HEIGHTS 17.3 21.3 0.0 135.9 50.4 62.6 5426 35 LA MIRADA 57.9 79.6 93.9 73.7 127.5 71.7 49328 36 LA PUENTE 105.3 122.7 0.0 57.8 182.4 26.6 40467 37 LA VERNE 77.5 95.6 0.0 106.8 92.2 97.7 32613 38 LAKEWOOD 87.0 214.4 85.5 137.0 145.2 120.1 81317 39 LANCASTER 229.4 242.2 216.3 148.0 184.4 61.0 160653 40 LAWNDALE 150.9 229.5 139.5 57.4 197.6 36.5 33205
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41 LONG BEACH 162.8 303.0 108.1 149.2 263.8 85.3 471397 42 LOS ANGELES 198.1 311.6 162.5 105.8 218.3 92.9 4007147 43 LYNWOOD 140.2 355.5 259.4 104.3 446.5 54.5 71453 44 MALIBU 87.0 53.6 0.0 153.6 116.4 111.7 12918 45 MANHATTAN BEACH 31.4 116.0 0.0 127.0 90.3 98.7 35843 46 MAYWOOD 111.7 162.7 167.5 62.5 228.9 32.1 27671 47 MONROVIA 32.7 80.7 124.5 82.0 101.6 98.1 37214 48 MONTEBELLO 81.1 149.2 73.0 266.4 330.3 46.3 63473 49 MONTEREY PARK 35.2 103.7 37.9 182.4 163.1 88.3 61210 50 NORWALK 124.2 144.5 109.0 100.0 178.0 59.8 106278 51 PALMDALE 125.0 159.2 58.6 98.6 125.4 57.7 158094 52 PALOS VERDES ESTATES 0.0 17.0 0.0 80.3 16.7 32.0 13611 53 PARAMOUNT 157.4 262.2 252.6 130.8 362.7 91.7 55041 54 PASADENA 102.6 163.2 129.7 132.6 114.5 73.0 142891 55 PICO RIVERA 103.6 135.8 36.3 99.7 235.2 75.7 63746 56 POMONA 123.3 259.5 272.5 119.3 372.2 93.0 153066 57 RANCHO PALOS VERDES 23.1 19.0 0.0 90.8 37.5 34.4 42563 58 REDONDO BEACH 66.1 105.2 0.0 133.8 113.8 86.7 68051 59 ROLLING HILLS ESTATES 51.0 14.0 0.0 129.3 44.1 70.6 8259 60 ROSEMEAD 86.6 124.7 42.4 153.7 232.0 74.5 54615 61 SAN DIMAS 51.6 80.3 0.0 116.5 101.7 82.0 34499 62 SAN FERNANDO 139.2 157.7 279.2 86.8 166.6 41.8 24899 63 SAN GABRIEL 80.9 113.9 57.2 124.9 67.5 56.8 40531 64 SAN MARINO 28.0 51.7 0.0 241.0 6.8 53.2 13402 65 SANTA CLARITA 40.3 65.1 42.8 79.2 86.4 52.2 216350 66 SANTA MONICA 205.1 299.4 74.8 177.3 129.5 210.8 92935 67 SANTE FE SPRINGS 137.9 302.2 0.0 253.8 439.9 212.3 18339 68 SIERRA MADRE 25.4 10.4 0.0 98.7 16.5 31.2 11080 69 SIGNAL HILL 91.6 333.9 197.1 201.2 523.3 250.8 11757 70 SOUTH EL MONTE 178.3 192.3 220.5 204.5 436.0 84.6 21012 71 SOUTH GATE 197.6 269.0 145.2 134.7 444.2 100.0 95717 72 SOUTH PASADENA 10.8 40.0 89.2 127.3 103.6 68.7 25961 73 TEMPLE CITY 37.2 63.3 127.0 179.8 46.2 39.8 36500 74 TORRANCE 36.5 90.8 0.0 96.0 134.7 84.9 147482 75 WALNUT 35.7 30.6 0.0 195.4 48.3 41.4 30189 76 WEST COVINA 43.3 153.8 0.0 118.1 172.8 95.3 108128 77 WEST HOLLYWOOD 128.8 379.7 62.5 160.4 127.8 208.6 37093 78 WESTLAKE VILLAGE 49.7 54.5 0.0 144.0 26.9 103.5 8476 79 WHITTIER 76.8 181.5 132.9 122.6 163.7 115.2 87141 80 WESTLAKE VILLAGE 54.1 25.2 0.0 96.7 30.5 101.6 8547 81 WHITTIER 72.7 118.8 53.9 118.8 192.7 118.6 87860
35
Standardized crime rates for cities in Los Angeles County, average from 2015-2017 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop 1 AGOURA HILLS 88.3 35.8 0.0 72.4 72.2 44.1 20814 2 ALHAMBRA 48.2 141.3 63.5 88.7 155.5 70.3 85865 3 ARCADIA 69.0 122.8 13.8 128.4 90.3 99.8 58883 4 ARTESIA 186.5 240.4 164.2 110.4 150.3 52.1 16933 5 BALDWIN PARK 84.5 86.5 71.0 91.4 123.0 59.0 76636 6 BELL 137.6 280.4 153.5 61.3 171.9 34.6 35925 7 BELL GARDENS 194.4 324.7 252.0 135.6 308.6 47.1 42930 8 BELLFLOWER 267.4 328.5 145.2 161.4 323.2 89.5 77984 9 BEVERLY HILLS 72.6 160.6 19.3 126.5 65.5 108.6 34781 10 BURBANK 82.4 138.5 64.5 91.7 219.6 95.3 104622 11 CALABASAS 19.5 39.0 0.0 43.9 32.7 43.5 24295 12 CARSON 143.5 152.8 152.3 158.0 224.0 71.5 92992 13 CERRITOS 62.0 140.7 59.3 120.9 191.5 114.4 50809 14 CLAREMONT 42.4 67.6 0.0 97.1 61.5 68.4 36246 15 COMMERCE 363.3 480.6 396.1 251.4 772.3 215.1 12994 16 COMPTON 435.4 941.5 1022.6 404.3 660.6 111.9 97728 17 COVINA 78.6 110.0 28.0 95.6 117.3 76.6 48674 18 CUDAHY 103.7 137.3 161.0 32.2 190.0 20.2 24146 19 CULVER CITY 59.9 297.9 75.4 111.4 158.1 165.3 39440 20 DIAMOND BAR 167.7 124.5 0.0 130.9 254.3 77.0 56996 21 DOWNEY 56.1 189.5 57.2 164.2 218.4 92.7 113511 22 DUARTE 78.4 73.2 93.3 54.8 79.3 46.0 21877 23 EL MONTE 171.1 291.5 253.2 242.2 272.0 112.0 116168 24 EL SEGUNDO 33.0 108.6 120.6 125.2 122.8 102.4 16932 25 GARDENA 120.4 374.8 139.6 126.3 216.2 80.8 60249 26 GLENDALE 41.4 89.9 51.2 70.3 127.0 79.0 202381 27 GLENDORA 51.1 68.8 26.7 58.4 66.6 81.2 52133 28 HAWAIIAN GARDENS 168.9 228.0 0.0 75.2 218.4 63.1 14505 29 HAWTHORNE 220.0 544.9 189.3 125.2 316.4 88.9 88664 30 HERMOSA BEACH 94.5 91.2 34.9 165.2 122.4 81.2 19836 31 HUNTINGTON PARK 129.9 464.3 292.2 158.3 373.7 83.2 59004 32 INGLEWOOD 208.9 885.7 660.8 231.7 440.6 91.3 110811 33 LA CANADA FLINTRIDGE 18.5 27.4 0.0 67.0 30.9 32.4 20480 34 LA HABRA HEIGHTS 15.5 17.2 0.0 69.9 34.9 45.3 5426 35 LA MIRADA 75.6 79.9 43.7 81.8 101.3 53.2 49328 36 LA PUENTE 170.7 186.2 206.6 51.9 153.4 29.5 40467 37 LA VERNE 73.9 77.5 0.0 129.2 56.9 86.3 32613 38 LAKEWOOD 120.6 190.2 85.6 81.5 185.5 85.2 81317 39 LANCASTER 270.9 227.4 148.7 129.4 152.6 65.5 160653 40 LAWNDALE 185.0 405.0 147.1 183.7 177.2 56.1 33205
36
41 LONG BEACH 143.9 372.8 186.7 156.3 242.9 94.9 471397 42 LOS ANGELES 286.4 506.0 294.7 104.0 293.0 90.8 4007147 43 LYNWOOD 226.3 443.4 463.3 217.0 279.1 92.4 71453 44 MALIBU 78.1 43.4 0.0 78.9 80.7 80.8 12918 45 MANHATTAN BEACH 44.7 113.8 40.3 139.4 122.3 107.7 35843 46 MAYWOOD 144.5 184.4 275.1 131.5 187.4 48.1 27671 47 MONROVIA ...... 37214 48 MONTEBELLO 65.6 114.8 63.7 128.7 251.0 71.6 63473 49 MONTEREY PARK 51.2 174.1 56.3 82.1 183.8 57.2 61210 50 NORWALK 194.7 280.4 166.9 108.8 249.7 60.0 106278 51 PALMDALE 324.0 241.1 107.4 256.1 182.8 117.6 158094 52 PALOS VERDES ESTATES 13.0 6.8 0.0 40.0 18.2 25.7 13611 53 PARAMOUNT 213.5 300.4 338.3 150.2 279.2 78.4 55041 54 PASADENA 202.3 419.2 229.9 197.1 223.1 129.6 142891 55 PICO RIVERA 258.5 197.5 132.4 76.5 210.0 55.3 63746 56 POMONA 243.0 532.5 428.9 406.0 288.2 143.3 153066 57 RANCHO PALOS VERDES 40.3 30.5 66.9 83.8 46.5 31.9 42563 58 REDONDO BEACH 71.8 107.7 29.0 120.7 138.5 89.4 68051 59 ROLLING HILLS ESTATES 63.0 35.4 0.0 118.9 37.4 55.5 8259 60 ROSEMEAD 212.4 222.8 87.7 173.5 207.3 74.0 54615 61 SAN DIMAS 84.3 64.9 0.0 60.4 61.2 52.4 34499 62 SAN FERNANDO 81.8 183.5 283.3 145.1 280.4 59.4 24899 63 SAN GABRIEL 159.8 186.4 34.5 127.4 105.6 65.1 40531 64 SAN MARINO 26.9 43.9 0.0 131.0 27.1 44.4 13402 65 SANTA CLARITA 36.1 52.7 37.7 40.7 59.9 37.8 216350 66 SANTA MONICA 120.2 179.3 81.0 77.4 68.2 130.9 92935 67 SANTE FE SPRINGS 215.6 312.7 324.4 253.9 505.1 191.9 18339 68 SIERRA MADRE 41.5 14.0 0.0 50.2 15.1 26.4 11080 69 SIGNAL HILL 128.8 246.3 117.5 195.0 350.3 160.8 11757 70 SOUTH EL MONTE 286.6 247.5 305.1 183.9 294.6 93.2 21012 71 SOUTH GATE 148.7 311.8 199.0 96.3 402.8 68.0 95717 72 SOUTH PASADENA 13.7 59.0 26.2 75.9 71.9 57.6 25961 73 TEMPLE CITY 94.1 94.2 58.6 110.2 84.9 44.4 36500 74 TORRANCE 49.4 139.2 24.2 80.8 160.6 77.7 147482 75 WALNUT 59.3 39.5 31.9 99.9 80.9 37.7 30189 76 WEST COVINA 65.7 137.1 25.5 71.7 194.6 86.9 108128 77 WEST HOLLYWOOD 115.6 307.6 55.0 82.5 88.6 150.9 37093 78 WESTLAKE VILLAGE 65.1 58.7 159.7 136.2 34.0 72.7 8476 79 WHITTIER 121.0 172.8 149.7 97.6 179.1 93.2 87141 80 WESTLAKE VILLAGE 29.7 23.2 0.0 56.9 23.4 60.5 8547 81 WHITTIER 47.7 118.7 70.9 150.9 120.7 96.2 87860
37
38
39
Adjusted violent crime rates for cities in Los Angeles County - last 10 years
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: North Los Angeles County 400
350
300
250
LAWNDALE 200 PARAMOUNT SAN MARINO
SANTE FE SPRINGS
150 Adjusted violent crime rate
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Northwest San Gabriel Valley 400
350
300
250 CALABASAS
GLENDORA
LA HABRA HEIGHTS 200 POMONA
SANTA MONICA
TORRANCE 150
Adjusted violent crime rate SOUTH EL MONTE
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
40
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: North central San Gabriel Valley 400
350
300
250 ALHAMBRA
ARCADIA
MONTEREY PARK 200 PALMDALE
SAN FERNANDO
SANTA CLARITA 150
Adjusted violent crime rate WALNUT
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Central San Gabriel Valley 400
350
300
250
BALDWIN PARK
BELL 200 EL MONTE
EL SEGUNDO
HAWAIIAN GARDENS
150 Adjusted violent crime rate
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
41
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: East Los Angeles County 400
350
300
250
CUDAHY
COMMERCE 200 LAKEWOOD
REDONDO BEACH
SAN GABRIEL
150 Adjusted violent crime rate
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: South San Gabriel Valley 400
350
300
250
DOWNEY
LA MIRADA 200 LA VERNE
WEST HOLLYWOOD
WESTLAKE VILLAGE
150 Adjusted violent crime rate
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
42
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Central Los Angeles County 400
350
300
250
BELL GARDENS
BELLFLOWER 200 CULVER CITY INGLEWOOD
MONTEBELLO
TEMPLE CITY
150 Adjusted violent crime rate
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Central Los Angeles County 400
350
300
250
COMPTON
DUARTE 200 MANHATTAN BEACH
NORWALK
PICO RIVERA
150 Adjusted violent crime rate
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
43
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Central east Los Angeles County 400
350
300
250
LA PUENTE
PALOS VERDES ESTATES 200 RANCHO PALOS VERDES SIERRA MADRE
SOUTH PASADENA
WHITTIER
150 Adjusted violent crime rate
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: South central Los Angeles County 300
250
200
CERRITOS
COVINA 150 LYNWOOD
MALIBU
SOUTH GATE Adjusted violent crime rate 100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
44
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: East central Los Angeles County 400
350
300
250
ARTESIA
BEVERLY HILLS 200 CLAREMONT
HAWTHORNE
LANCASTER
150 Adjusted violent crime rate
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Palos Verdes 400
350
300
250
PASADENA 200 ROLLING HILLS ESTATES
SAN DIMAS
Adjusted violent crime rate 150
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
45
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: South Bay 400
350
300
250
GARDENA
HUNTINGTON PARK 200 LOS ANGELES MONROVIA
ROSEMEAD
WEST COVINA
Adjusted violent crime rate 150
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: West-central Los Angeles 400
350
300
250
GLENDALE 200 HERMOSA BEACH LA CANADA FLINTRIDGE
LONG BEACH
150 Adjusted violent crime rate
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
46
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Westside Los Angeles 400
350
300
250
BURBANK 200 DIAMOND BAR SIGNAL HILL
WHITTIER
150 Adjusted violent crime rate
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Western Los Angeles County 400
350
300
250
AGOURA HILLS 200 CARSON MAYWOOD
WESTLAKE VILLAGE
150 Adjusted violent crime rate
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
47
Orange County
This section shows the crime rate These cities are clustered geographically into trends for Orange County cities. The first table city clusters, and the map shows the clustering shows the adjusted crime rate in the most of cities for these figures. For each Figure, the recent year (2017) for all cities. The second scale is typically from 0 to 400. Thus, the table shows the average adjusted crime rate bottom value is a city with no violent crime, over the three most recent years (2015-17) for whereas 400 indicates a city with a violent all cities. crime rate 300% higher than the regional average (400 -100 = 300). For a few of the After the two tables, we then display Figures, we had to extend the scale if certain Figures showing the 10 year trajectory of the cities had particularly high violent crime rates. violent crime rate for the cities in the county.
48
Standardized crime rates for cities in Orange County, 2017 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop 1 ALISO VIEJO 28.8 17.8 0.0 30.3 28.9 32.6 51984 2 ANAHEIM 85.9 156.8 65.6 97.2 200.1 102.4 353400 3 BREA 70.8 104.7 107.8 106.5 106.0 152.7 43000 4 BUENA PARK 104.2 132.7 27.7 91.0 218.2 143.3 83552 5 COSTA MESA 70.7 130.5 20.5 139.2 209.2 157.8 113267 6 CYPRESS 41.0 49.4 0.0 73.6 82.7 57.1 49064 7 DANA POINT 49.4 74.4 0.0 63.3 41.4 66.2 34123 8 FOUNTAIN VALLEY 30.6 57.0 0.0 106.7 115.7 119.7 56704 9 FULLERTON 43.3 79.9 16.4 52.6 124.2 130.8 141637 10 GARDEN GROVE 94.7 144.8 66.0 121.7 170.6 92.0 175466 11 HUNTINGTON BEACH 66.9 54.2 22.9 77.6 86.8 91.9 202244 12 IRVINE 11.2 23.0 16.8 57.7 32.0 57.7 276115 13 LA HABRA 61.3 85.8 37.4 81.0 136.3 79.5 61878 14 LA PALMA 35.5 51.1 0.0 225.2 95.1 68.0 15811 15 LAGUNA BEACH 153.0 69.5 0.0 135.6 129.3 89.8 23261 16 LAGUNA HILLS 29.5 65.5 73.1 93.8 70.4 53.7 31715 17 LAGUNA NIGUEL 24.9 19.3 35.3 36.8 34.7 36.9 65700 18 LAKE FOREST 50.0 32.9 0.0 50.1 47.1 33.9 84224 19 LOS ALAMITOS 4.0 98.9 0.0 159.1 93.7 50.9 11671 20 MISSION VIEJO 29.5 31.0 23.9 41.5 36.7 42.8 96928 21 NEWPORT BEACH 38.8 27.9 0.0 105.6 69.2 106.1 86910 22 ORANGE 45.8 52.4 65.7 88.1 110.1 70.3 141130 23 PLACENTIA 55.4 55.0 44.2 90.7 99.1 60.8 52437 24 RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA 21.0 14.1 0.0 23.3 16.7 30.5 49144 25 SAN CLEMENTE 32.1 65.1 0.0 67.1 45.2 49.5 65596 26 SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO 69.2 50.6 0.0 71.7 39.9 48.5 36532 27 SANTA ANA 115.2 208.1 144.9 70.4 268.8 69.3 335699 28 SEAL BEACH 45.9 89.6 0.0 95.5 89.3 116.2 24495 29 STANTON 105.1 110.2 59.8 85.3 158.7 56.1 38767 30 TUSTIN 40.9 66.8 85.6 90.1 99.3 103.4 81246 31 VILLA PARK 15.8 0.0 0.0 150.0 30.7 33.4 5933 32 WESTMINSTER 62.2 165.9 100.9 122.6 196.0 122.4 91863 33 YORBA LINDA 21.1 8.4 0.0 68.3 31.1 39.6 68889
49
Standardized crime rates for cities in Orange County, average from 2015-2017 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop 1 ALISO VIEJO 25.9 14.4 0.0 15.6 20.1 23.5 51984 2 ANAHEIM 73.0 98.6 51.1 94.9 130.3 84.5 353400 3 BREA 97.6 72.5 72.8 96.4 99.1 118.7 43000 4 BUENA PARK 97.5 174.8 63.8 96.9 272.9 98.9 83552 5 COSTA MESA 37.9 65.9 44.8 185.4 107.0 126.5 113267 6 CYPRESS 38.2 49.0 0.0 54.3 64.9 52.4 49064 7 DANA POINT 91.3 77.5 31.3 77.3 64.8 75.7 34123 8 FOUNTAIN VALLEY 43.0 96.2 61.0 74.0 141.4 106.4 56704 9 FULLERTON 50.5 90.4 85.6 74.1 161.9 117.4 141637 10 GARDEN GROVE 103.0 167.7 93.2 116.4 173.1 91.8 175466 11 HUNTINGTON BEACH 63.0 68.2 34.6 228.0 122.1 146.4 202244 12 IRVINE 19.7 27.6 21.1 113.9 41.3 77.9 276115 13 LA HABRA 48.1 85.8 26.2 80.5 98.0 78.6 61878 14 LA PALMA 58.9 67.4 0.0 152.8 81.8 80.2 15811 15 LAGUNA BEACH 108.4 35.9 29.2 74.2 51.3 68.4 23261 16 LAGUNA HILLS 26.5 53.1 64.4 48.2 48.8 38.9 31715 17 LAGUNA NIGUEL 29.9 16.9 32.0 33.4 26.1 30.8 65700 18 LAKE FOREST 40.9 26.6 0.0 23.7 33.9 29.6 84224 19 LOS ALAMITOS 27.8 80.5 58.3 76.3 70.0 56.4 11671 20 MISSION VIEJO 40.0 35.9 13.9 43.7 40.2 45.7 96928 21 NEWPORT BEACH 69.9 39.9 10.8 164.7 99.5 134.5 86910 22 ORANGE 66.9 88.0 43.5 93.0 149.0 96.7 141130 23 PLACENTIA 78.9 40.2 57.0 67.9 64.8 59.9 52437 24 RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA 18.8 11.4 0.0 12.0 11.6 22.1 49144 25 SAN CLEMENTE 41.9 72.5 24.9 95.1 84.4 54.9 65596 26 SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO 45.0 40.8 0.0 40.3 31.7 38.1 36532 27 SANTA ANA 114.3 196.4 110.3 43.2 235.5 60.0 335699 28 SEAL BEACH 30.9 65.3 26.1 65.5 78.8 73.8 24495 29 STANTON 70.5 136.9 17.5 94.5 134.3 106.6 38767 30 TUSTIN ...... 81246 31 VILLA PARK ...... 5933 32 WESTMINSTER 70.7 173.0 76.0 163.3 224.7 124.7 91863 33 YORBA LINDA 27.7 15.8 10.9 37.3 36.2 38.5 68889
50
51
Adjusted violent crime rates for cities in Orange County - last 10 years
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: North Orange County 400
350
300
250
FULLERTON 200 BREA LA HABRA
YORBA LINDA
150 Adjusted violent crime rate
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Central Orange County 400
350
300
250
ANAHEIM
LA PALMA 200 BUENA PARK ORANGE
CYPRESS
VILLA PARK
150 Adjusted violent crime rate
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
52
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: West-central Orange County 400
350
300
250
SANTA ANA
GARDEN GROVE 200 WESTMINSTER TUSTIN
LOS ALAMITOS
STANTON
150 Adjusted violent crime rate
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: North beaches Orange County 400
350
300
250
SEAL BEACH
HUNTINGTON BEACH 200 FOUNTAIN VALLEY
NEWPORT BEACH
COSTA MESA
150 Adjusted violent crime rate
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: South Orange County 400
350
300
250
IRVINE
LAGUNA HILLS 200 LAKE FOREST MISSION VIEJO
RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA
ALISO VIEJO
150 Adjusted violent crime rate
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: South Orange County beaches 400
350
300
250
SAN CLEMENTE
SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO 200 DANA POINT
LAGUNA BEACH
LAGUNA NIGUEL
150 Adjusted violent crime rate
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
54
Riverside County
This section shows the crime rate These cities are clustered geographically into trends for Riverside County cities. The first city clusters, and the map shows the clustering table shows the adjusted crime rate in the most of cities for these figures. For each Figure, the recent year (2017) for all cities. The second scale is typically from 0 to 400. Thus, the table shows the average adjusted crime rate bottom value is a city with no violent crime, over the three most recent years (2015-17) for whereas 400 indicates a city with a violent all cities. crime rate 300% higher than the regional average (400 -100 = 300). For a few of the After the two tables, we then display Figures, we had to extend the scale if certain Figures showing the 10 year trajectory of the cities had particularly high violent crime rates. violent crime rate for the cities in the county.
55
Standardized crime rates for cities in Riverside County, 2017 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop 1 BANNING 175.3 62.8 222.4 206.7 230.4 46.2 31247 2 BEAUMONT 143.9 46.8 49.4 105.8 112.8 67.8 46856 3 BLYTHE 79.0 94.4 0.0 343.0 114.1 142.3 19572 4 CALIMESA 26.8 79.3 265.2 122.3 161.7 113.4 8737 5 CANYON LAKE 66.7 0.0 0.0 49.8 113.7 32.8 11227 6 CATHEDRAL CITY 61.9 103.8 85.0 82.1 211.5 35.3 54506 7 COACHELLA 86.2 103.7 0.0 101.4 183.7 96.1 45646 8 CORONA 21.9 73.0 13.7 84.3 150.6 72.8 169164 9 DESERT HOT SPRINGS 344.0 225.1 564.8 302.0 403.1 37.2 28717 10 EASTVALE 22.5 44.4 0.0 86.0 124.1 85.0 62422 11 HEMET 162.2 180.3 108.8 209.9 284.7 124.1 85166 12 INDIAN WELLS 8.7 0.0 0.0 239.8 42.1 107.8 5408 13 LA QUINTA 30.4 89.0 0.0 102.9 72.4 131.2 41528 14 LAKE ELSINORE 75.8 99.5 35.0 115.0 233.6 129.0 66136 15 MENIFEE 35.7 54.9 76.9 91.7 137.6 86.0 90403 16 MORENO VALLEY 92.8 195.9 100.5 140.8 254.4 110.5 207418 17 MURRIETA 13.3 33.7 20.5 57.2 74.6 57.2 113016 18 NORCO 80.8 73.6 86.9 118.3 157.3 100.2 26654 19 PALM DESERT 51.4 65.5 0.0 204.0 100.0 164.5 52845 20 PALM SPRINGS 146.7 225.2 240.4 230.1 236.4 150.0 48193 21 PERRIS 72.4 98.2 59.7 88.5 295.3 80.5 77626 22 RANCHO MIRAGE 38.3 81.8 0.0 167.7 99.4 126.8 18347 23 RIVERSIDE 135.2 191.5 84.8 129.7 240.4 114.4 328023 24 SAN JACINTO 52.8 132.5 145.0 182.0 244.4 118.7 47932 25 TEMECULA 29.7 38.1 20.1 77.9 98.9 98.8 115220
56
Standardized crime rates for cities in Riverside County, average from 2015-2017 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop 1 BANNING ...... 31247 2 BEAUMONT 290.7 109.3 76.0 169.9 136.6 120.3 46856 3 BLYTHE 82.7 48.9 31.9 152.0 62.7 115.4 19572 4 CALIMESA 24.1 64.2 233.6 62.8 112.1 82.0 8737 5 CANYON LAKE 76.4 9.4 0.0 42.4 74.3 37.4 11227 6 CATHEDRAL CITY 189.0 115.5 127.4 166.2 264.1 77.9 54506 7 COACHELLA 151.3 75.2 0.0 151.8 97.8 140.6 45646 8 CORONA 114.9 118.4 72.4 115.7 227.8 92.4 169164 9 DESERT HOT SPRINGS 292.7 142.3 299.3 202.8 153.9 66.2 28717 10 EASTVALE 45.9 47.1 61.0 141.9 71.0 74.9 62422 11 HEMET 137.7 156.3 93.6 147.9 185.2 102.7 85166 12 INDIAN WELLS 16.1 12.1 0.0 122.3 30.2 84.3 5408 13 LA QUINTA 70.9 67.2 27.2 104.4 52.1 89.9 41528 14 LAKE ELSINORE 261.1 202.3 302.0 217.6 353.0 144.8 66136 15 MENIFEE 32.1 44.5 67.7 47.1 95.4 62.2 90403 16 MORENO VALLEY ...... 207418 17 MURRIETA 27.2 36.1 22.6 57.3 82.3 49.6 113016 18 NORCO 56.5 47.1 113.7 72.4 98.3 68.0 26654 19 PALM DESERT 46.1 53.1 0.0 104.9 69.4 119.0 52845 20 PALM SPRINGS 257.0 251.2 226.1 369.4 316.5 193.5 48193 21 PERRIS 221.6 267.0 1351.2 279.8 209.2 164.5 77626 22 RANCHO MIRAGE 57.5 57.4 0.0 181.2 125.9 135.2 18347 23 RIVERSIDE 248.1 256.8 129.6 168.2 252.9 121.1 328023 24 SAN JACINTO 131.3 96.5 341.6 194.0 121.8 94.4 47932 25 TEMECULA 26.6 30.8 17.7 40.0 68.6 71.5 115220
57
58
Adjusted violent crime rates for cities in Riverside County - last 10 years
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: North-western Riverside County 400
350
300
250
CATHEDRAL CITY
DESERT HOT SPRINGS 200 MORENO VALLEY NORCO
PERRIS
RIVERSIDE
150 Adjusted violent crime rate
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: South-western Riverside County 400
350
300
250 BANNING
BEAUMONT
CANYON LAKE 200 INDIAN WELLS
MURRIETA
SAN JACINTO 150
Adjusted violent crime rate TEMECULA
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
59
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: West-central Riverside County 400
350
300
250
COACHELLA
EASTVALE 200 PALM DESERT
PALM SPRINGS
RANCHO MIRAGE
150 Adjusted violent crime rate
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: East-central Riverside County 400
350
300
250
BLYTHE
CORONA 200 LA QUINTA
LAKE ELSINORE
MENIFEE
150 Adjusted violent crime rate
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
60
San Bernardino County
This section shows the crime rate These cities are clustered geographically into trends for San Bernardino County cities. The city clusters, and the map shows the clustering first table shows the adjusted crime rate in the of cities for these figures. For each Figure, the most recent year (2017) for all cities. The scale is typically from 0 to 400. Thus, the second table shows the average adjusted crime bottom value is a city with no violent crime, rate over the three most recent years (2015-17) whereas 400 indicates a city with a violent for all cities. crime rate 300% higher than the regional average (400 -100 = 300). For a few of the After the two tables, we then display Figures, we had to extend the scale if certain Figures showing the 10 year trajectory of the cities had particularly high violent crime rates. violent crime rate for the cities in the county.
61
Standardized crime rates for cities in San Bernardino County, 2017 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop 1 ADELANTO 222.4 164.5 137.5 143.4 132.6 48.7 33693 2 APPLE VALLEY 92.9 99.5 126.8 104.0 174.6 76.3 73105 3 BARSTOW 362.5 466.1 192.8 336.6 352.8 114.0 24028 4 BIG BEAR LAKE ...... 5 CHINO 66.5 112.3 77.7 126.0 149.8 88.9 89420 6 CHINO HILLS 23.0 27.6 0.0 103.4 59.1 66.6 79480 7 COLTON 101.9 240.8 168.1 121.8 286.9 85.0 55127 8 FONTANA 96.6 112.3 98.5 67.6 189.6 61.2 211782 9 GRAND TERRACE 55.8 82.6 0.0 167.7 112.3 76.0 12584 10 HESPERIA 120.7 118.8 49.1 121.9 210.2 73.8 94292 11 HIGHLAND 80.5 154.7 167.8 115.1 184.0 62.4 55229 12 LOMA LINDA 40.5 57.1 0.0 117.4 182.2 93.5 24265 13 MONTCLAIR 141.7 249.6 58.9 183.7 440.5 125.2 39318 14 NEEDLES 271.0 92.2 0.0 289.3 154.6 117.5 5011 15 ONTARIO 85.5 145.4 106.1 104.8 237.6 92.1 174724 16 RANCHO CUCAMONGA 43.1 76.4 13.0 116.1 94.1 95.2 178308 17 REDLANDS 71.8 111.1 32.3 151.1 186.2 150.7 71707 18 RIALTO 98.6 166.5 44.6 116.2 268.7 32.4 103980 19 SAN BERNARDINO 374.2 466.0 362.6 250.0 477.6 103.9 217259 20 TWENTYNINE PALMS 53.6 26.4 176.8 137.8 78.2 30.0 26210 21 UPLAND 60.1 151.1 210.2 193.2 171.9 87.6 77154 22 VICTORVILLE 200.2 250.0 263.1 171.2 239.9 84.4 123284 23 YUCAIPA 34.1 49.5 0.0 95.8 114.8 62.3 53614 24 YUCCA VALLEY 81.6 95.3 0.0 172.6 108.7 63.3 21806
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Standardized crime rates for cities in San Bernardino County, average from 2015-2017 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop 1 ADELANTO 199.6 133.2 121.1 73.7 91.9 35.2 33693 2 APPLE VALLEY 103.7 72.2 120.6 89.2 159.2 67.4 73105 3 BARSTOW 230.7 238.7 172.6 151.5 240.6 71.6 24028 4 BIG BEAR LAKE ...... 5 CHINO 127.7 109.9 163.3 134.4 136.3 88.9 89420 6 CHINO HILLS 20.6 22.4 0.0 53.1 40.9 48.2 79480 7 COLTON 77.4 167.9 217.1 171.2 146.7 98.3 55127 8 FONTANA 86.1 162.3 89.4 228.9 180.1 139.3 211782 9 GRAND TERRACE 59.3 74.1 0.0 143.5 106.3 63.7 12584 10 HESPERIA 98.4 110.3 78.2 154.6 252.8 90.2 94292 11 HIGHLAND 135.6 204.8 220.1 135.7 228.2 64.2 55229 12 LOMA LINDA 113.7 112.2 74.7 171.4 227.5 81.7 24265 13 MONTCLAIR 129.0 242.8 291.4 173.8 318.2 157.5 39318 14 NEEDLES 332.2 53.2 0.0 246.5 160.1 175.0 5011 15 ONTARIO 149.7 174.7 154.6 91.9 259.4 100.4 174724 16 RANCHO CUCAMONGA 93.0 77.4 68.3 109.4 126.8 78.9 178308 17 REDLANDS 110.7 110.6 56.8 136.6 162.6 112.1 71707 18 RIALTO 192.2 213.4 142.2 128.1 247.0 41.9 103980 19 SAN BERNARDINO 292.9 488.1 463.5 364.3 322.1 216.9 217259 20 TWENTYNINE PALMS 181.8 94.6 161.1 192.1 119.9 67.8 26210 21 UPLAND 72.1 130.3 126.9 88.8 176.4 96.9 77154 22 VICTORVILLE 288.2 221.5 200.1 188.3 199.4 120.0 123284 23 YUCAIPA 30.6 40.1 0.0 49.2 79.6 45.1 53614 24 YUCCA VALLEY 97.5 67.3 56.9 99.0 87.0 64.2 21806
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64
Adjusted violent crime rates for cities in San Bernardino County - last 10 years
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: South-west San Bernardino County 400
350
300
250
CHINO
CHINO HILLS 200 MONTCLAIR ONTARIO
RANCHO CUCAMONGA
UPLAND
150 Adjusted violent crime rate
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: South-central San Bernardino County 500
450
400
350
300
COLTON
FONTANA 250 HIGHLAND
RIALTO
200 SAN BERNARDINO Adjusted violent crime rate
150
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
65
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: North San Bernardino County 400
350
300
250
ADELANTO
APPLE VALLEY 200 BARSTOW HESPERIA
NEEDLES
VICTORVILLE
150 Adjusted violent crime rate
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Eastern San Bernardino County 400
350
300
250 BIG BEAR LAKE
GRAND TERRACE
LOMA LINDA 200 REDLANDS
TWENTYNINE PALMS
YUCAIPA Adjusted violent crime 150 YUCCA VALLEY
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
66
San Diego County
This section shows the crime rate These cities are clustered geographically into trends for San Diego County cities. The first city clusters, and the map shows the clustering table shows the adjusted crime rate in the most of cities for these figures. For each Figure, the recent year (2017) for all cities. The second scale is typically from 0 to 400. Thus, the table shows the average adjusted crime rate bottom value is a city with no violent crime, over the three most recent years (2015-17) for whereas 400 indicates a city with a violent all cities. crime rate 300% higher than the regional After the two tables, we then display average (400 -100 = 300). For a few of the Figures showing the 10 year trajectory of the Figures, we had to extend the scale if certain violent crime rate for the cities in the county. cities had particularly high violent crime rates.
67
Standardized crime rates for cities in San Diego County in 2017 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop 1 CARLSBAD 69.4 46.0 0.0 95.2 54.9 80.4 115344 2 CHULA VISTA 76.0 129.5 17.1 60.0 127.9 51.8 271109 3 CORONADO 35.6 22.0 0.0 26.1 48.5 66.9 26294 4 DEL MAR 117.1 0.0 0.0 219.7 134.7 122.2 4398 5 EL CAJON 97.3 180.2 22.2 100.8 180.6 81.4 104447 6 ENCINITAS 51.4 41.7 0.0 83.0 47.2 57.8 63722 7 ESCONDIDO 106.6 131.4 45.5 71.0 118.7 65.9 152845 8 IMPERIAL BEACH 157.8 142.3 84.0 63.6 138.7 43.3 27593 9 LA MESA 74.4 95.5 115.0 74.5 145.6 77.1 60425 10 LEMON GROVE 191.7 234.2 85.5 87.2 173.1 88.1 27113 11 NATIONAL CITY 122.4 204.4 112.9 54.5 265.0 61.3 61574 12 OCEANSIDE 119.4 107.7 117.9 85.1 127.8 96.0 176815 13 POWAY 34.3 29.8 0.0 68.6 46.1 43.6 50438 14 SAN DIEGO 105.8 114.3 56.9 68.2 164.3 68.7 1424116 15 SAN MARCOS 55.8 64.1 0.0 52.8 70.3 45.6 97290 16 SANTEE 80.8 84.8 0.0 47.3 71.6 64.3 58563 17 SOLANA BEACH 20.7 34.1 0.0 127.7 63.9 59.3 13542
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Standardized crime rates for cities in San Diego County, average from 2015-2017 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop 1 CARLSBAD 50.1 37.8 17.1 64.0 48.4 52.3 115344 2 CHULA VISTA 103.4 169.6 96.0 162.9 258.9 112.8 271109 3 CORONADO 52.6 36.2 25.1 55.3 129.4 74.9 26294 4 DEL MAR 81.3 10.7 0.0 141.4 89.9 89.9 4398 5 EL CAJON 108.8 131.5 75.8 205.8 149.4 127.2 104447 6 ENCINITAS 56.8 37.5 11.4 44.0 39.8 44.8 63722 7 ESCONDIDO 104.7 112.5 108.0 90.2 167.4 87.3 152845 8 IMPERIAL BEACH 197.6 143.3 120.2 137.6 159.1 73.7 27593 9 LA MESA 59.5 86.3 76.6 79.0 133.7 87.6 60425 10 LEMON GROVE 162.6 206.6 79.0 77.5 225.0 60.0 27113 11 NATIONAL CITY 138.6 217.8 110.5 58.0 305.5 57.4 61574 12 OCEANSIDE 149.2 130.5 67.3 65.5 128.2 79.9 176815 13 POWAY 30.8 24.1 0.0 35.2 31.9 31.6 50438 14 SAN DIEGO 103.7 235.4 139.9 215.0 215.2 135.9 1424116 15 SAN MARCOS 50.1 51.9 0.0 27.1 48.7 33.0 97290 16 SANTEE 72.5 68.7 0.0 24.3 49.6 46.5 58563 17 SOLANA BEACH 18.6 27.6 0.0 65.6 44.3 42.9 13542
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70
Adjusted violent crime rates for cities in San Diego County - last 10 years Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: South-west San Diego County 400
350
300
250
CHULA VISTA
CORONADO 200 IMPERIAL BEACH
NATIONAL CITY
POWAY
150 Adjusted violent crime rate
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Eastern San Diego County 400
350
300
250
EL CAJON
LA MESA 200 LEMON GROVE
OCEANSIDE
SAN MARCOS
150 Adjusted violent crime rate
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
71
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: North-west San Diego County 400
350
300
250 CARLSBAD
DEL MAR
ENCINITAS 200 ESCONDIDO
SAN DIEGO
SANTEE 150
Adjusted violent crime rate SOLANA BEACH
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
72
Ventura County
This section shows the crime rate These cities are clustered geographically into trends for Ventura County cities. The first table city clusters, and the map shows the clustering shows the adjusted crime rate in the most of cities for these figures. For each Figure, the recent year (2017) for all cities. The second scale is typically from 0 to 400. Thus, the table shows the average adjusted crime rate bottom value is a city with no violent crime, over the three most recent years (2015-17) for whereas 400 indicates a city with a violent all cities. crime rate 300% higher than the regional After the two tables, we then display average (400 -100 = 300). For a few of the Figures showing the 10 year trajectory of the Figures, we had to extend the scale if certain violent crime rate for the cities in the county. cities had particularly high violent crime rates.
73
Standardized crime rates for cities in Ventura County, 2017 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop 1 CAMARILLO 38.7 71.6 34.2 68.4 52.5 69.0 67714 2 FILLMORE 56.6 36.7 0.0 38.9 34.8 29.9 15708 3 MOORPARK 39.4 28.2 0.0 38.0 24.8 39.5 36813 4 OJAI 12.3 0.0 0.0 36.8 6.0 24.6 7603 5 OXNARD 89.0 236.9 165.9 95.5 150.7 103.9 209513 6 PORT HUENEME 39.8 72.2 207.1 73.9 89.6 72.6 22374 7 SANTA PAULA 116.7 68.1 151.9 70.0 62.8 57.2 30496 8 SIMI VALLEY 41.8 35.6 0.0 66.5 49.7 60.6 126635 9 THOUSAND OAKS 33.0 31.3 35.9 52.9 39.8 57.1 129240 10 VENTURA 120.9 116.5 42.1 135.2 139.2 139.8 110006
Standardized crime rates for cities in Ventura County, average from 2015-2017 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop 1 CAMARILLO 33.5 42.0 10.0 41.1 32.5 54.4 67714 2 FILLMORE 100.7 39.1 62.9 96.4 45.4 51.1 15708 3 MOORPARK 34.1 20.2 31.9 20.4 21.4 26.8 36813 4 OJAI 61.0 31.9 0.0 76.0 30.9 65.1 7603 5 OXNARD 80.6 140.6 84.3 172.9 154.2 114.4 209513 6 PORT HUENEME 46.1 55.2 166.0 58.3 68.3 56.3 22374 7 SANTA PAULA 162.6 90.6 147.5 124.6 54.5 69.0 30496 8 SIMI VALLEY 54.0 39.9 6.8 66.4 71.2 54.4 126635 9 THOUSAND OAKS 37.7 56.8 10.5 110.4 69.3 68.8 129240 10 VENTURA 76.6 86.3 81.1 103.6 87.7 103.8 110006
74
75
Adjusted violent crime rates for cities in Ventura County - last 10 years
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: West Ventura County 400
350
300
250
OXNARD
PORT HUENEME 200 OJAI
SANTA PAULA
VENTURA
150 Adjusted violent crime rate
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: East Ventura County 400
350
300
250
CAMARILLO
FILLMORE 200 MOORPARK
SIMI VALLEY
THOUSAND OAKS
Adjusted violent crime rate 150
100
50
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
76
NOTES
77
School of Social Ecology Discover · Engage · Transform
The School of Social Ecology is dedicated to interdisciplinary, problem-driven scholarship, teaching, and outreach in the public’s interest. Social Ecology’s unique focus and expertise has made it a national leader in applying basic theory and empirical research to address complex societal problems. Since 1970, Social Ecology has grown from a few dozen students to more than 2,500, with over 20,000 graduates working in fields as diverse as health care, human services, planning, education, law and public policy. The School is home to three highly ranked departments - Criminology, Law and Society; Urban Planning and Public Policy; and Psychology Science - that share a commitment to research that understands human behavior in larger social and institutional contexts, moves beyond traditional disciplinary boundaries, and reaches a diverse and broad audience.
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