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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Special Assistance for Project Implementation (SAPI) for Borg El Arab International Airport Modernization Project - Final Report - Chapter 4 Air Traffic Demand Forecast Table of Contents 4.1 Review of SAPROF Study ................................................................................................... 4-1 4.1.1 Procedure of Air Traffic Demand Forecast applied in SAPROF ................................ 4-1 4.1.2 Comparison between the Forecast in SAPROF Study with the actual Traffic ............ 4-2 4.1.3 Comparative Analysis between SAPROF and Present ............................................... 4-4 4.1.4 Principal Conclusion ................................................................................................... 4-7 4.2 Forecasting Parameters ....................................................................................................... 4-8 4.2.1 Air Traffic in Egypt ..................................................................................................... 4-8 4.2.2 Origin & Destination / Nationality of Air Passenger ................................................ 4-13 4.2.3 Trend of Scheduled Flights in Alexandria ................................................................. 4-16 4.2.4 Passenger Survey at Borg El Arab International Airport .......................................... 4-20 4.2.5 Socio-Economic Indices ........................................................................................... 4-29 4.3 Annual Passenger Demand Forecast ................................................................................ 4-31 4.3.1 Procedure of Air Traffic Demand Forecast ............................................................... 4-31 4.3.2 Top-down Analysis ................................................................................................... 4-32 4.3.3 Bottom-up Analysis .................................................................................................. 4-40 4.3.4 Cross-examination .................................................................................................... 4-54 4.4 Annual Air Cargo Demand Forecast ................................................................................ 4-57 4.4.1 Procedure of Air Cargo Demand Forecast ................................................................ 4-57 4.2.2 Current Situation of Air Cargo in Alexandria and outskirts ...................................... 4-57 4.4.3 Air Cargo Forecast .................................................................................................... 4-58 Special Assistance for Project Implementation (SAPI) for Borg El Arab International Airport Modernization Project - Final Report - 4.5 Annual Aircraft Movement Forecast ................................................................................ 4-60 4.5.1 Passenger Aircraft Movements .................................................................................. 4-60 4.5.2 Cargo Aircraft Movements ........................................................................................ 4-64 4.6 Peak Air Traffic Demand Forecast ................................................................................... 4-65 4.6.1 Peak-day Air Traffic Demand Forecast ..................................................................... 4-65 4.6.2 Peak-hour Air Traffic Demand Forecast .................................................................... 4-67 4.7 Summary of Air Traffic Demand Forecast ....................................................................... 4-69 4.8 Principal Conclusion .......................................................................................................... 4-72 4.8.1 Forecasting Parameter ............................................................................................... 4-72 4.8.2 Air Passenger Demand Forecast ................................................................................ 4-72 4.8.3 Air Cargo Demand Forecast ...................................................................................... 4-73 4.8.4 Aircraft Movement Forecast ...................................................................................... 4-74 4.8.5 Peak Air Traffic Forecast ........................................................................................... 4-74 Special Assistance for Project Implementation (SAPI) for Borg El Arab International Airport Modernization Project Chapter 4 Air Traffic Demand Forecast - Final Report - Chapter 4. Air Traffic Demand Forecast 4.1. Review of SAPROF Study 4.1.1. Procedure of Air Traffic Demand Forecast applied in SAPROF The following figure outlines the procedure which had been applied in the previous SAPROF study, to forecast the air traffic demand. In the previous forecast two different approaches, namely, Top-down analysis and Bottom-Up analysis, were applied. Both analysis were computed with data available only until the year 2002. The present facilities at Borg El Arab International Airport were planned and constructed on the basis of the air traffic demand which had thus been forecasted. Top-down analysis Bottom-up analysis (Egypt driven) (Alexandria driven) Forecast of air Forecast Model Forecast of Int’l air passenger of Egypt (Int’l/ Dome/ Cargo) passenger at Alexandria *Explanatory variable Egyptian GDP per Capita Low case Average growth rate of Int’l air passenger at Alexandria : 1993-2002 (7.5%) High case It was assumed that passenger growth rate accelerates in line with Alexandria Int’l tourist growth : (7.95 ~ 10.65%) Based on the forecast in Egypt by WTO Forecast of air Forecast of Domestic Current ratio of Growth rate passenger of air passenger of air passenger at same as Top- Alexandria Alexandria to the Alexandria down analysis whole Egypt (Domestic) *Current ratio maintain the same in the future -Domestic 1.7% - International 3.0% Figure 4.1-1 Procedure of Air Traffic Demand Forecast in SAPROF In the Top-down analysis the international, domestic passengers and cargo volumes were predicted separately. First the number of air passengers for entire Egypt were computed by a linear regression model. Egyptian GDP per Capita was assumed to be the explanatory variable. In the next step the number of air passengers for Alexandria airport was computed by multiplying the ratio of air passengers at Alexandria to the entire Egypt. This ratio was assumed to be constant, because its trend had been consistent in the past, and was used to forecast the air traffic demand. A sensitive analysis was conducted by changing the assumption for Egyptian future GDP per Capita. Three cases were studied (High, Medium, and Low). 4-1 Special Assistance for Project Implementation (SAPI) for Borg El Arab International Airport Modernization Project Chapter 4 Air Traffic Demand Forecast - Final Report - The Bottom-Up analysis was made by focusing on the air passengers in Alexandria. International and domestic passengers were forecasted separately. The future growth rate for international passenger was assumed based on the two scenarios, High and Low. The growth rate in the Low case was set based on the historical average annual growth rate of 7.5%. For the High case a gradually increasing growth rate was assumed according to Egypt tourism growth rate predicted by the World Tourism Organization (WTO). For domestic passengers, the results obtained in the Top-down analysis were adopted. In the previous SAPROF study the low case demand was used facility planning of the Borg El Arab International Airport. 4.1.2. Comparison between the Forecast in SAPROF Study with the actual Traffic A Comparison has been made between the actual traffic recorded in 2010 and the number of passengers previously forecasted in the SAPROF Study for entire Egypt and Alexandria as shown in Table 4.1-1. 1) Top-down For example for the Medium case 2010, the actual traffic exceeded the previous forecast for Egypt by 27% and for Alexandria by 57%. The difference between the previous forecast and actual traffic becomes larger when the passenger demands only for Alexandria are considered. 2) Bottom-Up The actual passenger traffic in 2010 in Alexandria was 55% higher than the Low case forecast. Table 4.1-1 Actual and SAPROF Forecast Air Passenger Demand Egypt Alexandria (ALY + HBE) Acutal Top-Down Forecast Acutal Top-Down Forecast Bottom-UP Forecast High Medium Low High Medium Low High Low 1995 11,222 250 1996 12,888 260 1997 13,561 285 1998 11,668 290 1999 16,557 325 2000 20,534 347 2001 17,608 365 2002 18,121 18,121 18,121 18,121 422 422 422 422 422 422 2003 19,103 19,561 19,117 19,082 449 476 465 464 474 471 2004 23,907 21,141 20,259 20,117 491 516 494 490 510 505 2005 24,811 22,850 21,544 21,208 609 558 525 517 550 541 2006 25,801 24,697 22,910 22,369 803 604 559 546 592 579 2007 30,610 26,694 24,364 23,573 962 654 596 576 638 621 2008 35,769 28,869 25,923 24,824 1,290 709 634 607 687 665 2009 34,835 31,221 27,582 26,141 1,469 767 676 640 740 713 2010 40,067 33,767 29,348 27,528 1,682 831 720 674 802 764 Difference ▲16% ▲27% ▲31% ▲51% ▲57% ▲60% ▲52% ▲55% in 2010 4-2 Special Assistance for Project Implementation (SAPI) for Borg El Arab International Airport Modernization Project Chapter 4 Air Traffic Demand Forecast - Final Report - (Thousands.person) EGYPT 45,000 Acutal 40,000 40,067 Top-Down Forecast High Top-Down Forecast Medium 35,000 33,767 Top-Down Forecast Low 30,000 29,348 27,528 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 (Thousands.person) ALEXANDRIA
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