PROGRAMME AL GHAlT - MOROCCO WINTER SNOWPACK AUGMENTATION PROJECT COOPERATIVE PROJECT BETWEEN THE KINGDOM OF MOROCCO AND THE UNITED STATES UNDER PARTICIPATING AGENCY SERVICE AGREEMENT IMA-01 90-P-IW-4093-00 FINAL REPORT Submitted to U.S. Agency for International Development Washington, D.C. SEPTEMBER 1989 US. DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Bureau of Reclamation Denver Off ice Research and Laboratory Services Division Water Augmentation Group . ,---, Bureau ot Reclamation TECHNICAL RE :PORT STANDARD TITLE PAGE 3. RECIPIENT'S CATALOG NO. 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. REPORT DATE September 1989 PROGRAMME AL GHAlT - MOROCCO WINTER SNOWPACK AUGMENTATION PROJECT - 6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE A COOPERATIVE PROJECT BETWEEN THE D-3720 KINGDOM OF MOROCCO AND THE UNITED STATES 1 7. AUTHORIS) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION I REPORT NO. I D. A. Matthew. A. S. Dennis. C. L. Hartzell. J. G. Medina.* I P. Goorian, R: W. Cheney, K. D. Shuyler, C. L. Borda R-89-14 9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS 10. WORK UNIT NO. Bureau of Reclamation 11. CONTRACT OR GRANT NO. Denver Office IMA-0190-P-IW-4093-00 Denver CO 80225 13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD I COVERED '12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS U.S. Agency for International Development I Washington, D.C. 14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE 1 DlBR 15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES Microfiche and hard copy available at the Denver Office, Denver, Colorado. 16. ABSTRACT From 1984 to 1989 the Governments of Morocco and the United States cooperated in Programme Al Ghait, a $12,000,000 project to investigate the feasibility of augmenting water supplies in Morocco through weather modification. A demonstration project was set up in the upper Oum er Rbia basin, which is on the northwestern side of the central High Atlas Mountains. Promising cloud formations were treated with silver iodide released from aircraft and, beginning in 1987, from a network of ground-based generators. Clouds were seeded on 144 days over the five winters of operations. An extensive effort went into developing the required infrastructure, providing modern equipment, and training over 100 Moroccan personnel to conduct and evaluate the project. The project provided Morocco with its first weather radar and its first airborne system for collection of cloud physics data. New rawinsonde stations were established at Beni Mellal and Tissa to obtain upper air data every 12 hours. A satellite ground receiving station and an image processing system were provided to monitor clouds. Extensive communications and microcomputing systems were provided to transmit and analyze scientific data. Airflow and precipitation models were adapted to Morocco to guide operational decisions. Scientific studies by Reclamation and its contractors and Moroccan scientists concentrated on the seedability of clouds over the Atlas Mountains and statistical methods of evaluating effects of cloud seeding. Seedable conditions, as indicated by the presence of supercooled liquid water in clouds at concentrations up to 0.7 g/m3 at temperatures down to -12 'C, were found to occur on 15 to 30 days per winter. The evaluation studies, which were based on a targetcontrol design using streamflow as the response variable, indicated that 6 years of experimentation would be required to provide a 50-percent probability of detecting a 10-percent increase in streamflow due to seeding. The potential effects of augmented streamflow upon the operation of the Oum er Rbia River and upon the local and national economy were studied with the aid of computer models. This report covers the project design, the contributions of the two Governments involved, the development of Moroccan institutions to handle such a complex program, the technology transfer and scientific studies accomplished, and the results of the streamflow and economic analyses using models. A section on problems encountered and lessons learned is included for the benefit of other persons or agencies contemplating large, complex projects involving more than one national government. 17. KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS a. DESCRIPTORS-- weather modification/ cloud seeding/ precipitation augmentation/ precipitation enhancement/ artificial seeding/ cloud physics/ orographic clouds/ supercooled liquid water/ cloud liquid water/ liquid water content/ ice crystals/ snow/ precipitation/ transport and diffusion/ clouds/ air flow modeling/ precipitation modeling/ snow cover runoff modeling/ economic studies/ hydrologic modeling/ benefit-to-cost ratios/ satellite observations/ LANDSAT/ NOAA AVHRR/ radar echoes/ drought relief/ water resources management/ MRPPI double ratio/ statistical evaluation/ target- control area/ technology transfer b. IDENTIFIERS-- Morocco/ Atlas Mountains/ Khouribga/ Casablanca/ Azilal/ Beni Mellal/ Bin El Ouidane/ Oued I Oum er Rbia basin/ Northwest Africa c. COSATI Field/Group 048 COWRR: 0402.1 SR'M: 18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT 19. SECURITY CLASS 21. NO. OF PAGI (THIS REPORT) Available from the National Technical Information Service, Operations UNCLASSIF,ED 236 Division. 5285 Port Royal Road. Springfield, Virginia 22/61. 20. SECURITY CLASS 22. PRICE (THIS PAGE) UNCLASSIFIED R-89-14 PROGRAMME AL GHAIT - MOROCCO WINTER SNOWPACK AUGMENTATION PROJECT A COOPERATIVE PROJECT BETWEEN THE KINGDOM OF MOROCCO AND THE UNITED STATES UNDER PARTICIPATING AGENCY SERVICE AGREEMENT IMA-0190-P-IW-4093-00 FINAL REPORT Submitted to U.S. Agency for International Development Washington, D.C. by D. A. Matthews A. S. Dennis C. L. Hartzell J. G. Medina P. Goorian R. W. Cheney K. D. Shuyler C. L. Borda Water Augmentation Group Research and Laboratory Services Division Denver Office Denver, Colorado ..81 UETRIC September 1989 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR * BUREAU OF RECLAMATION Mission: As the Nation's principal conservation agency, the Department of the Interior has responsibility for most of our nationally owned public lands and natural and cultural resources. This includes fostering wise use of our land and water resources, protecting our fish and wildlife, preserving the environmental and cultural values of our national parks and historical places, and providing for the enjoyment of life through outdoor recreation. The Department assesses our energy and mineral resources and works to assure that their development is in the best interests of all our people. The Department also promotes the goals of the Take Pride in America campaign by encouraging stewardship and citizen responsibility for the public lands and promoting citizen participation in their care. The Department also has a major responsibility for American Indian reservation communities and for people who live in Island Territories under U.S. Administration. The information contained in this report regarding commercial products or firms may not be used for advertising or promotional purposes and is not to be construed as an endorsement of any product or firm by the Bureau of Reclamation. 11 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors acknowledge the support of His Majesty King Hassan II, whose interest in weather modification made Programme Ai Ghait possible. Dr. Stephen Lintner of the U.S. Agency for International Development's (USAID) Washington Office, Mr. Harry Petrequin of the USAID Mission in Morocco, and Dr. Bernard Silverman of Reclamation worked closely together in getting the project started. The USAID Mission in Morocco and the staff of the American Embassy in Casablanca provided much assistance. Our deep appreciation is expressed to Mission Directors Robert Chase and Charles Johnson, and to their staffs. Mr. Richard Jackson, American Consul General, graciously hosted two large receptions at his residence for project personnel and visiting water resources experts. The personal interest of General Kabbaj, the project's "Haut Coordonnateur," accounted largely for its speedy implementation. Colonel Mohamed Bamaarouf was diligent in fulfilling the Royal Air Force commitment to the project. Mr. Amed Bensari, Director of the National Meteorological Organization, had overall responsibility for the project on the civilian side, while the project's Director, Mr. Saad Benarafa, provided skillful supervision on a day-to-day basis. Mr. El Bachir Loukah performed effectively as Deputy Director following his appointment in 1987. Special thanks go to the Operations Team, led by Mr. Moustafa Maidane and Mr. Yvon Le Goff, and the Equipment Team, led by Mr. Brahim Louaked and Mr. Mohamed Megdani, for their excellent performance. The personnel from the Royal Air Force who flew the seeding aircraft were originally led by Lts. Hamri and Idouba and currently are led by Captain Chouham. Captain Maanan coordinated the flight operations with the Programme Ai Ghait Operations Team. All flying missions were conducted with skill and dedication. The project is also indebted to the base commanders at Kenitra, Khouribga, and Anfa, who provided excellent facilities and assistance to the air crews. Mr. El Bachir Loukah contributed to chapter 3 of this report and also provided a critical review of the entire document. The Scientific Analysis and Evaluation Team contributed to the text of chapter 8. Mr. Baddour and his American counterpart, Dr. Rasmussen, wrote the section on cloud physics studies; Mr. Nbou and Dr. Johnson, the radar studies; Mr. Benassi and Dr. Matthews, airflow modeling studies; Mr. El Majdoub and Mr. Medina, precipitation modeling studies; Mr. Abidi and Mr. Verdin, snow cover and runoff modeling studies; and Mr. Mrabet and Mr. Medina, statistical evaluation studies. The team's excellent work is leading