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Home , Chris Mason (ice hockey), Devan Dubnyk, Goaltender, Tim Thomas (ice hockey), Tuukka Rask, Vezina Trophy

TEAM 12

Case 3: ONDREJ PAVELEC

Acting for CLUB 1

1. Introduction

This brief analyzes the statistics, attributes, comparable player salaries, and other factors of Ondrej Pavelec ("Mr. Pavelec"), defenseman for the Hockey Club (the "Club" or the "Jets"), that are relevant to the estimation of appropriate salary compensation for the 2012-

2013 season. The Collective Bargaining Agreement ("CBA"), Article

12.9(g) sets the criteria for evidence that may be considered in this arbitration:1

12.9 (g)(ii) The parties may offer evidence of the following:

A) the overall performance, including statistics prepared by the League, of the Player in the previous season or seasons; B) the of games played by the Player, his injuries or illnesses during the preceding seasons; C) the length of service of the Player in the League and/or with the Club; D) the overall contribution of the Player to the competitive success or failure of his Club in the preceding season; E) any special qualities of leadership or public appeal not inconsistent with the fulfillment of his responsibilities as a playing member of his team; F) the overall performance in the previous season or seasons of any Player(s) who is alleged to be comparable to the party Player whose salary is in dispute. G) The compensation of any Player(s) who is alleged to be comparable to the party Player, provided, however, that in applying this or any of the above subparagraphs, the Salary Arbitrator shall not consider a Player(s) to be comparable to the party Player unless a party to the arbitration has contended that the Player(s) is comparable; nor shall the Salary Arbitrator consider the compensation or performance of a Player(s) unless a party to the arbitration has contended that the Player(s) is comparable.

This arbitration will give particular attention to Players alleged to be comparable to Mr.

Pavelec that were eligible for arbitration in the summer of 2010-2011 or 2011-2012, and who were awarded 1-2 year contracts, either through negotiation with their Club or through a formal

1 NHL Collective Bargaining Agreement. Available at http://www.nhlpa.com/about-us/cba. 2 arbitration. Alleged comparable Players whose contracts began before the new CBA was introduced in 2005 are not valid for the purposes of this arbitration. The Club respectfully submits that the Salary Arbitrator find that he is entitled to receive a salary with an average annual value of $3 million.

2. Overall Performance

Due to the unique position of goalies in hockey, salary arbitrators have tended to focus on

6 statistical measures to evaluate goalie performance: Games Played, ,

Save Percentage, Shots Faced, Winning Percentage, and Team Offence.2

Mr. Pavelec started 68 games for the Winnipeg Jets Hockey Club in the 2011-2012 NHL season, backstopping his club to the 22nd best record of the 30 teams in the NHL with 29 wins,

28 losses, and 9 losses3. In these 68 games, Mr. Pavelec was pulled from the game 5 times or 7% of the time. In his platform season, Mr. Pavelec allowed the most goals of any goalie in the NHL with 191 goals against despite only facing the 5th most shots against (2036).

Mr. Pavelec’s other relevant statistics from his platform season were well below those of an average starting goalie in the NHL. For example, Mr. Pavelec had a goals against average (GAA) of 2.91, ranking him 39th among with 25 or more starts in the NHL. Mr. Pavelec’s total percentage that season was the 35th highest among goalies who started at least 25 games at 0.906. Mr. Pavelec’s at even strength ranked a pedestrian 29th place among goalies starting 25 games or more at 0.917. To give further context to these statistics, Mr.

Pavelec’s back up goalie, who played in 20 games for the Jets in the 2011-2012

2 Derek R. Marr. 2011. "The Puck Stops Here: Analysis of Salary Arbitration in the National Hockey League" at page 29. Available at: http://works.bepress.com/derek_r_marr/2. 3 Unless otherwise cited, all performance statistics were obtained from www.nhl.com 3 season, had a lower GAA at 2.59 compared to Mr. Pavelec’s 2.91, and had a shut out frequency of 1 in every 10 games compared to Mr. Pavelec who averaged 1 shut out every 17 games4.

Mr. Pavelec’s statistics in the 2011 – 2012 season were similar to those in the 2010 -

2011 season where Mr. Pavelec ranked 51st among goalies in GAA at 2.73, and 26th in the save percentage among goalies with at least 25 games started at 0.9145. Mr. Pavelec’s overall performance in recent seasons indicate that he is a below average, if not borderline starting .

3. Number of Games Played/Injuries and Illnesses

Mr. Pavelec’s most serious injury to date occurred when he collapsed on the ice during the ’ opening game of the 2010-2011 NHL season on October 8, 20106. Mr.

Pavelec was subsequently diagnosed with a condition called Neurogenic syncope which is condition that results in spontaneous fainting. Mr. Pavelec sustained a concussion when his head collided with the ice as he fainted, and he then missed 8 games with post-concussion symptoms7.

Though Mr. Pavelec has not missed any additional games because of this particular condition since the event on October 8, 2010, this medical condition is one to be seriously considered when awarding Mr. Pavelec a contract as the fainting spells associated with

Neurogenic Syncope could occur at anytime leaving the Winnipeg Jets hockey club without a goaltender.

Mr. Pavelec’s only other notable injury to date was a wrist injury in his platform season that caused him to miss 3 games in March 2012.

4 http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8462152#&navid=nhl-search 5 http://www.nhl.com/ice/historicalstats.htm?season=20102011&gameType=2&team=&position=G&country= 6 http://sports.nationalpost.com/2010/10/19/pavelec-back-on-ice-after-scary-collapse/ 7 http://www.theglobeandmail.com/commentary/winnipeg-jets-go-from-darkness-to-spotlights-glare/article4199355/ 4

4. Length of Service

Mr. Pavelec was drafted 41st overall by the Atlanta Thrashers (now the Winnipeg Jets) in

2005. In 2007-2008, Mr. Pavelec played in his first NHL game, and in 2009-2010 played full time in the NHL as a back up goaltender for Johan Hedburg. Although relatively inexperienced,

Mr. Pavelec was named starting goaltender for the Thrashers in 2010-2011 due to the trade of

Mr. Hedburg8. This equates to three years of full time experience in the NHL. Given the nature of the position and the average age of winners (34 years old),9 this lack of NHL playing experience is likely to affect Mr. Pavelec's consistency over the next few years.

There is also a potential concern in Mr. Pavelec's complete lack of experience in the NHL playoffs. After playing a career high 68 regular season games in 2011-2012, Mr. Pavelec informed the Club that he was too tired to join the Czech national team at World Championships, despite being called the cornerstone of the team.10 This may signal that Mr. Pavelec does not have the maturity and experience to pace himself throughout the season to ensure that he is at his best during playoffs.

5. Overall Contribution

There is no doubt that Mr. Pavelec contributed to the performance of the Winnipeg Jets in the platform year, and during his prior years with the Club. In 68 games, Mr. Pavelec totaled 29 wins and 28 losses, and recorded 4 shut outs. In games that extended into overtime, he did not fair as well, posting 9 losses in 16 games.

It should also be noted that later in the season, when the Jets were in the playoff hunt and every point was particularly important,11 Mr. Pavelec's performance wavered, posting a

8 http://thehockeywriters.com/introducing-ondrej-pavelec-and-chris-mason-of-the-winnipeg-jets/ 9 http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=635383 10 http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/sports/hockey/jets/pavelec-deked-out-by-jets-147422685.html 11 http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/story/2012/03/28/sp-nhl-new-york-rangers-winnipeg-jets-highlights.html 5 goals against average of 3.23, and a save percentage of only .896. Mr. Pavelec was also pulled from the net in late March after surrendering 5 goals on 25 shots.12 This calls into question Mr.

Pavelec's ability to excel in high-pressure situations, an extremely important characteristic in

NHL goaltenders, particularly during playoffs. Though Mr. Pavelec is young and has seemingly secured the position of starting goaltender for the Winnipeg Jets Hockey Club, he has not yet posted any statistics at or near the league averages for starting goaltenders.

6. Leadership/Public Appeal

Mr. Pavelec enjoyed considerable success during his junior hockey career, winning the

Jacques Plante Trophy for best GAA in the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League (QMJHL) twice (2005-2006, 2006-2007), being named Defensive Rookie of the Year in the QMHL (2005-

2006), and winning the Championship in 2007-2008, among others.13 However, since 2007, when Mr. Pavelec began playing in the NHL, he has not shown the same dominance. He has not received any League or Club based awards, and has posted a goals against average that has repeatedly been among the worst in the League.14 This may be evidence that Mr. Pavelec's style of play is more well suited to the junior leagues. It could also mean that Mr. Pavelec's relative inexperience and youth have negatively impacted his ability to adjust to the NHL. Both of these possibilities suggest that until Mr. Pavelec's establishes that he has fully transitioned his game to be successful in the NHL and compete with other starting goaltenders, he should not be paid on par with them.

Recent evidence of Mr. Pavelec’s immaturity and irresponsibility should also be taken into consideration when evaluating his character and public appeal. In May 2012, Mr. Pavelec pled guilty to a drunk driving offence in the Czech Republic, leading to a suspension of his

12 http://www.winnipegsun.com/2012/03/21/pavelec-forgets-quickly 13 http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=9626 14 http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1235966-winnipeg-jets-send-a-message-with-the-signing-of-ondrej-pavelec 6

Czech license for 20 months.15 This indiscretion carried with it the possibility of a suspension by the NHL,16 and shows a serious lack of judgment and respect for his position as a role model in the community, as well as for his team, and the League.

7. Comparables

A number of useful comparisons can be drawn to highlight Mr. Pavelec's value, and provide context for his performance statistics.

i.

Mr. Dubnyk's current contract is a 2 year deal with the , earning an

AAV of $3.5 million per year over the course of 2012-2014. Mr. Dubnyk has spent three years in the NHL, all of which have been with the Oilers, which has allowed him to gain valuable experience with the Oiler's system and become familiar with the tendencies of players. In 2011-

2012, Mr. Dubnyk had a Goals Against Average of 2.67, lower than that of Mr. Pavelec's, as well as a save percentage of .914, higher than Mr. Pavelec's.

It should also be noted that the Oiler's intended for Mr. Dubnyk to be their starting goaltender in the platform year, and indeed he played over half of the season's games and finished the year playing the 25 of the last 35 games. This is a 12 game increase in games played over the 2010-2011 year. As the season went on and he was given more responsibility, Mr.

Dubnyk responded, showing improvements in save percentage and goals against average throughout the year. In the last 35 games of the season, Mr. Dubnyk had a record of 14-8-3, with a save percentage of .926. These statistics are demonstrative of Mr. Dubnyk's ability to respond to pressure, his maturity, and his skill as a goaltender. There is no indication that an increased

15 http://www.winnipegsun.com/2012/07/16/pavelec-gets-dui-czech-media 16 http://www.thestar.com/Sports/NHL/article/256122 7 workload will hinder Mr. Dubnyk, and it is expected that he will be the Oiler's starting goaltender in 2012-2013.17

It should also be noted that at 26 years old, Mr. Dubnyk is at a more desirable age for an

NHL goaltender than is Mr. Pavelec. The average age of Vezina Trophy winners over the last five years is 34 years old, the youngest of who was thirty years old.18 With additional experience and maturity, Mr. Dubnyk is entering the prime of his career, while Mr. Pavelec is unlikely to reach his peak performance years for at least a few more seasons.19

ii.

Mr. Rask's current contract is a one year deal for the 2012-2013 season with the

Bruins Hockey Club, with an annual average value of $3.5 million.

It is useful to compare Mr. Rask with Mr. Pavelec due to their similar experience levels.

Both players have spent 5 seasons in the NHL, and Mr. Rask is a mere 5 months older than Mr.

Pavelec. In the platform year, Mr. Rask had a goals against average of 2.05, significantly lower than Mr. Pavelec's, and a save percentage of .929, considerably higher than that of Mr. Pavelec.

Each of these statistics further represent improvements from Mr. Rask's performance in the previous season. These statistics would make Mr. Rask a prized goaltender on almost any team in the league,20 and indeed, his play earned him the start in the majority of games in 2009 over

Although Mr. Rask played only 23 games last year, he has proven his ability to take on a considerable amount of responsibility, outplaying , who has been the starting goaltender in Boston for 6 years, and has won multiple Vezina Trophy awards,21 and earning the

17 http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2012/06/09/devan-dubnyk-staked-his-claim-as-edmonton-oilers-starting-goalie- of-the-future/ 18 supra at note 9. 19 supra at note 17. 20 http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2012/06/28/bruins-buy-tim-thomas-insurance-re-sign-tuukka-rask/ 21 supra at note 9. 8 right to play 45 games in the 2009-2010 season. His lack of play is largely attributable to the excellent play of Mr. Thomas, the quality of the , who were coming off of a

Stanley Cup win in 2010-2011, and an season ending injury in March.22 Mr. Rask also provides the Bruins the benefit of having spent all five of his years in the NHL in Boston, allowing him to gain valuable experience with the preferences and tendencies of the team. Further, Mr. Rask has considerable playoff experience, whereas Mr. Dubnyk has not been tested in the post-season.

Another important consideration is that with Tim Thomas taking a year off, Mr. Rask will be taking on the role of starting goaltender in the 2012-2013 season,23 which is certain to have influenced the salary on his current contract.

iii.

Mr. Crawford's current contract is a three year deal with the

Hockey Club, with an average annual value of $2.667 million, which is in effect from 2011 until

2014.

Like Mr. Pavelec, Mr. Crawford has proven his ability to play the role of starting goaltender early in his career, playing 57 games in each of the last 2 seasons. In addition, Mr.

Mason proved himself in the playoffs, playing in 13 post-season games in the last 2 years.

In his own platform year, Mr. Crawford had a goals against average of 2.3, and a save percentage of .917, both of which are significantly better than Mr. Pavelec's results in 2011-

2012. Further, Mr. Crawford has an extra year of experience in the NHL compared to Mr.

Pavelec, and at 27 years old, is entering the prime age range for goaltenders (see above, average age of Vezina trophy winners is 34 years old). He has played with the Blackhawks since he began in the NHL, providing him a familiarity with the team's strategic play, and allowing him to

22 http://www.nesn.com/2012/06/report-bruins-close-to-re-signing-tuukka-rask.html 23 ibid 9 adapt his style to suit the style of the team. This comparison of Mr. Crawford's and Mr.

Pavelec's performance statistics and experience demonstrate a clear disparity between the two players in favour of Mr. Crawford, which should be carefully considered when recommending a salary for Mr. Pavelec.

8. Conclusion

While Mr. Pavelec has established himself as a solid up and coming starting goaltender for the Winnipeg Jets, comparing his performance statistics with other goaltenders in the league reveals a number of deficiencies in his play. Mr. Pavelec achieved a save percentage of .906 in the platform year, and a goals against average of 2.91. This places him 35th and 29th among NHL goaltenders with more than 25 starts, respectively. When it is considered that the Jets were 14th in the league in terms of allowing shots on , it becomes clear that Mr. Pavelec's save percentage in particular is much too low to command a salary higher than $3 million per year.

Most of Mr. Pavelec's accolades were received prior to him playing full time in the NHL.

Although his previous accomplishments are to be commended, they should not bear heavily on the calculation of his current worth as they do not reflect his current ability or value relative to other goalies in the league. The fact that Mr. Pavelec received a number of individual awards from 2004-2007,24 but none since then may actually point to his inability to fully adapt to the

NHL style of play. Further, Mr. Pavelec's recent drunk driving conviction raises questions about his maturity level and ability to act honorably on behalf of his team and the League.

24 http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=9626