Junior Skeptic 62: an Easy Guide to Baloney Detection

An Easy Guide to

PUBLISHER AND EDITOR IN CHIEF Pat Linse Baloney CO-P UBLISHER Michael Shermer

EDITOR AND WRITER Daniel Loxton Detection!

CONTRIBUTORS : Hello! Pat Linse is the creator of and Editor in Chief In this special issue of JUNIOR SKEPTIC we’ll learn many valuable of JUNIOR SKEPTIC . She wrote many tricks for sorting truth from nonsense. We need them! of the early issues. We’re bombarded by claims every day of our lives. Jim W. W. Smith Friends tell us stuff. Labels and advertisements make is a cartoonist and CGI illustrator claims about products. Books and websites make claims who works about the world. TV and YouTube channels show us amazing regularly with Daniel Loxton on sights and tell us astonishing stories. But some of the JUNIOR SKEPTIC and things we hear sound too good to be true. How do we tell a variety of book projects for kids. the difference between fact and baloney? Daniel Loxton is the Editor of Let’s find out! JUNIOR SKEPTIC , J U

and writes and N I

illustrates most O issues. Daniel is the R author of Evolution: S K

How We and All E Living Things Sagan’s “fine Art of Baloney Detection” P T I

Came to Be. C

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This Issue’s Cover . features a digital There was once a famous He shared some of those meth - 4 3 . illustration by astronomer, book author, and ods for scientiﬁc thinking 30 C

Daniel Loxton with o

TV star named Carl Sagan. He years ago in an article called “The p

Samantha May. y spent much of his life trying to Fine Art of Baloney Detection,” r i

Modeling provided g by Vika M-S. teach the public about sci - then expanded his thoughts in his h t

ence—not just the cool things book The Demon-Haunted World . ©

scientists have learned, but Sagan wrote, 1 2 5

also the methods scientists ,

In the course of their train - 3 use to ﬁnd things out. 1 ing, scientists are equipped 2 6

Sagan loved science, saying, with a baloney detection kit. b y

“When you’re in love, you want The kit is brought out… M

To learn more about i l l

to tell the world.” He thought whenever new ideas are e

Carl Sagan’s life and n

every person deserved to share work in skepticism, see offered for consideration. … n i u

in the wonder of great scientiﬁc Junior Skeptic #50 What’s in the kit? Tools for m

discoveries. skeptical thinking. P r e s

But Sagan was also frustrated to see people Today we’re going to put together our own ,

867: by Millennium n

“bamboozled” by false claims. He didn’t like baloney detection kits, starting with Sagan’s c

Press, Inc. and its a contributors. All seeing people get cheated by scammers or top ten tips for thinking like a scientist. We’ll n d

rights are reserved. taught things that weren’t true. He was con - learn what questions to ask when we hear i t s

Reproduction in vinced that people would get fooled less often weird things. We’ll learn how to avoid getting c whole or in part with - o if we all learned more of the thinking habits fooled by sloppy or slippery arguments—and n out permission of t r i the publisher is pro - scientists use to solve problems. also learn how to avoid fooling ourselves! b u

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a e h s e r s r o n s e h b . s - u o a e . k s ) - u y a a - u y e e s r e t e ) r “Not proven false” “Unexplained” does not does not mean “true” mean “unexplainable”

Some people assume that their paranormal When people hear that a sighting or event is “unexplained,” they claim must be true if it hasn’t been proven may make the mistake of assuming it cannot be explained and so false. “There was no sign of cheating when this must be paranormal. But everything is unexplained until we find psychic demonstrated mind-reading,” one the explanation. Unsolved mysteries are just that—mysteries we might claim for example, or “after all these still need to solve. As Michael Shermer points out, “it is okay to years, authorities still can’t prove aliens aren’t say, ‘We do not yet know, but someday perhaps we will.’” visiting the Earth.” In some cases the mystery is solved, but we don’t personally This kind of argument can sound vaguely know the answer. Who built the pyramids? How is it possible for convincing, but it’s a thinking mistake called people to walk barefoot over red hot coals? Well, how does a “arguing from ignorance” (lack of knowledge or magician do her tricks? She knows. Other magicians know. It only evidence). A lack of evidence against something seems mysterious if we haven’t learned enough about that subject. is not the same as evidence for that thing. We Those who assume that unexplained things are paranormal also have no evidence that there are no space pen - make a second mistake: they think that because they don’t know guins. That doesn’t even begin to suggest that the explanation, therefore they do know the explanation. People space penguins exist. You can make the same often reason like this (as pointed out in a skeptical book written argument about anything. No one can prove over a century ago): “ If it is not ______, what is it? We do not that Pokémon never attend tea parties in know. Therefore, it is______.” People fill in the blanks with what - Wonderland. That doesn’t mean they do. ever paranormal notions they happen to believe. If a person can’t identify that flying object, for example, they may suppose that its Your claim? Your identity must be “alien spaceship.” That’s like saying “I have no idea what’s in this gift-wrapped present, so it must be a genie.”

burden of proof J U

When we don’t have enough information to solve a mystery, it’s N I O

When someone makes a claim, it’s up to them to best to just say that. It’s unwise to guess or jump to conclusions! R

explain why anyone should believe it. It’s a mistake K E for the person making the claim to try to shift this P T I burden of proof to others. C

MAKING EXCUSES N o

Imagine someone were to tell you he can turn for failures .

4 himself invisible, but he can’t show you right now. 3 .

That’s already a claim that’s hard to take seriously. Shermer points out that in science, “failures are how we get o p

Obviously it would be ridiculous for him to also y

closer to the mark of truth.” Scientists test things. If the result r i then demand, “Prove me wrong if you don’t believe g of their test is negative—say the experimental medicine did h t me!” Why would you bother trying to prove any - nothing—then they’ve learned something they didn’t know. © thing? You’d probably just shake your head and try 3 1

In the realm of paranormal claims, it’s much less common 2 to get out of the conversation. 5 ,

for people to learn from failures. For example, many so-called 3

Such misguided demands are often heard in para - 1 psychics have been caught red handed using trickery to fake 2 6

normal debates: “Skeptics say there’s no Bigfoot. It’s psychic powers. But exposed cheating does not usually shake b y

up to them to prove it!” Well no. It isn’t. the faith of the psychic’s supporters. Instead they make excus - M i l l

es. “If the psychic did resort to trickery just this once,” they e n

might claim, “she must have been too tired to use her genuine n i u

Yeah? powers.” m ! l Show me. rea P is r oot Excuses are especially common when paranormal claims fail e igf s

B s

formal scientiﬁc tests. Perhaps psychic powers don’t work ,

I n

when the psychic is watched too closely, or when there are c

skeptics in the room? Perhaps a laboratory environment some - n d

how disrupts the energies necessary for this miracle cure? i t s

Such excuses are understandable. No one likes being disap - c o

pointed. But if we’re not willing to learn from the results of n t r i scientiﬁc tests, why bother with testing at all? b u t o r s

7 Thinking there are “Happened with” may not only two choices mean “caused by”

People often suppose things are either one way or the We’re all quite good at recognizing cause and effect. other—either black or white, good or bad, us or them. This You kick a ball. It ﬂies across the yard. You under - is a mistake called “excluding the middle” or “false dichoto - stand that your kick caused the ball to move. my” (falsely dividing into two extremes). In reality, there are But the cause of things is not always so obvious. usually more than two options. If we’re not careful, When two things happen alongside each other, they the best answer may get overlooked somewhere may or may not be related. There are three main pos - in the middle. In debates about science, this mis - sibilities: one thing may cause the other, or the tim - take fools people into ing may be a coincidence, or a third thing may cause thinking that both. Here’s a famous illustration of that last possi - evidence against bility: when ice cream sales rise, drowning accidents one explanation must also rise. The two things tend to go together, but nei - count as evidence in favor ther causes the other. Instead, warm weather causes of their own explanation. people to swim more and also to eat more ice cream.

“After this” does not always few days. Perhaps you’d recommend the pill to others: mean “because of this” “It worked for me!” But did it? People often imagine feeling better when they’re given a “placebo” (fake medi - Our ability to recognize cause and effect is sometimes too cine that does nothing, such as a sugar pill). And people good. When one thing happens after another thing, we usually do recover from illness on their own after a while. often suppose that they must be related—even when they Whether it’s a new drug, an ancient herb, or a magical s aren’t. This causes an incredible amount of mischief. r o healing ritual, feeling better after taking a treatment does t

u In the 1990s, for example, a few individuals noticed vapor

b not necessarily mean that the treatment did anything. To i r trails from jets ﬂying high overhead, and then noticed that t ﬁnd out, scientists divide patients into two groups. Half get n

o they felt ill. They jumped to the extremely unlikely conclu - c the treatment; half get a placebo. Neither the doctors nor

s sion that these two things were related. This started a t i

patients know who is in which group until the end of the d bizarre conspiracy theory about thousands of jets secretly n study. Then the two groups are compared. If the patients a

spraying poison all over our planet. c who received the treatment did better than those who got a n I

, When we think about health and medicine, it’s all too

s placebo, the treatment probably caused the difference. s e easy to imagine cause and effect relationships that don’t r Scientiﬁc tests often reveal that popular “alternative medi - P really exist. If you felt sick and someone gave you a pill, you cine” treatments do nothing at all. Millions of people are m u i might feel a little better right away, and much better after a fooled by “after this, therefore because of this” reasoning. n n e l l i M Coincidences Hello? … y It’s a busy world, bustling Is this as b happen Whoa, eerie!

6 with an uncountable unlikely as it

2 I was just

1 number of daily events thinking of seems? We often 3

, you!

5 and goings on. Every once in a while, completely unrelated think of the many 2

1 things will coincide in a such a way that we notice and ﬁnd it people in our lives. 3

© remarkable. Such coincidences are inevitable and com - Sometimes they call. Most t h mon, purely by accident. But as Shermer notes, these can of the time they don’t phone g i r seem more meaningful than they are: soon after we thought about y p o When our mind makes a connection that seems them, but it’s likely that one of C

. them will eventually. We notice 3 improbable, there is a tendency to think something 4

. and remember surprising coinci -

o mysterious or paranormal is at work. You go to the N phone to call your friend Bob. The phone rings and it dences. We don’t pay attention C I

T is Bob. You think, “Wow, what are the chances? This when nothing remarkable hap - P

E pens. We certainly don’t keep track

K could not have been a mere coincidence. Maybe Bob S of all the times we thought of some -

R and I are communicating telepathically.” O

I one and they didn’t call us! N U J

8 The insidious problem of “confirmation Bias” believe to be true, we pay attention and think, “That sounds We’ve looked at many ways our thinking (and arguments) right.” When information conflicts with our beliefs, we can go wrong. But here’s the big one, the king of mistakes, ignore it, dismiss it, or view it with suspicion. the most widespread and deceptive thinking problem of This is actually pretty helpful much of the time. We can’t them all: every single one of us is much more open to evi - change our minds with every new claim. It makes sense to dence that confirms what we already believe —and we dismiss check new information by comparing it with what we evidence that would require us to change our mind s. This ten - already know. Sure, our friend was a jerk last Tuesday, but dency is called “confirmation bias.” we know she’s usually loyal and kind. Yes, the ice looks safe for skating, but we know it’s best to be careful all the same. Built for Belief But this automatic filtering becomes a big problem when Human beings are absolutely terrific at believing things. it fools us into dismissing important new information. It seems we can believe almost anything! Some people are When we’re shown strong evidence that our beliefs are truly convinced that the Earth is as flat as a pancake. Others incorrect, we should change our minds. But we usually believe that the world’s scientists are conspiring (for some don’t. Instead, we tend naturally to invent excuses to reject reason) to deceive everyone about evolution and climate that new evidence—“that’s all part of the conspiracy,” say, change. But the evidence for a spherical Earth, global or “they would claim that,” or “just another bogus study.” warming, and evolution through natural selection is over - It’s human nature. But we can take steps to avoid fooling whelming. To believe otherwise takes more than incorrect ourselves this way. We’ve taken one already: we learned ideas. It takes mental effort. And our brains are built to do that confirmation bias exists. Step two is to remember that! that work all the time without our even noticing. Step three is harder: we need to make an ongoing effort to Our brains maintain our beliefs by filtering what we see be skeptical about claims we want to agree with, and to pay and hear. When new information fits with what we already open-minded attention to claims we’re tempted to dismiss. J U N I O

This filtering happens in all parts of our life. Suppose Emily believes R

Penelope is a polite friendly person, and believes Olivia is awful. Those K E

beliefs will influence Emily’s interpretation of new information. She P T I

may also overlook or forget things that could challenge her opinions. C

N o .

4 3 .

Excuse me, C Excuse me, can I get past? o can I get past? p y r i g

Of course! h t

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Without asking! I n

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e o c g t o j l s ! t - u y f Junior Skeptic # 62 (www.skeptic.com/junior_skeptic/issue62) was originally published in Skeptic magazine 22.1 in 2017. The Skeptics Society is a nonprofit 501(c)(3) educational organization that promotes science literacy and critical thinking, and investigates fringe science and paranormal claims. Contact us at: [email protected] . Contact Daniel Loxton at: [email protected] . Make a donation at www.skeptic.com/donate .

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