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PONARS Eurasia POLICY CONFERENCE Washington, D.C. October 2010 THE INSTITUTE FOR EUROPEAN, RUSSIAN AND EURASIAN STUDIES PONARS Eurasia Policy Conference Washington, D.C. October 2010 PONARS Eurasia is a global network of social scientists that seeks to promote scholarly work and policy engagement on transnational and comparative topics within the Eurasian space. PONARS Eurasia is based at the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at The George Washington University‘s Elliott School of International Affairs. This publication was made possible by a grant from Carnegie Corporation of New York. The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the authors. Edited by Alexander Schmemann and Cory Welt PONARS Eurasia The Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) Elliott School of International Affairs The George Washington University 1957 E Street, NW, Suite 412 Washington, DC 20052 Tel: (202) 994-6340 www.ponarseurasia.org Cover image: The Russian 109-meter (358-foot) Pallada training tall ship sails during a naval parade to mark the 225th anniversary of the Russian navy's Black Sea fleet at the Crimean Peninsula port of Sevastopol, Ukraine, Sunday, May 11, 2008. Sevastopol is still home to the Russian Black Sea Fleet more than 15 years after the Soviet collapse. Under the agreement between Russia and Ukraine, the Russian navy was allowed to remain in Sevastopol until 2017, paying an annual rent of US$93 million (euro73 million). (AP Photo/Sergei Chuzavkov) © PONARS Eurasia 2010. All rights reserved. Contents About the Authors………………………………………………………………………………..v Foreword Cory Welt………………………………………………………………………………………...ix A NEW “NEIGHBORHOOD POLICY” FOR RUSSIA? Russia-Georgia Today: An Illusory Stability (Policy Memo No. 109) Kornely Kakachia.............................................................................................................................1 The 2010 Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan Customs Union: A Classic Case of Prinuzhdenie k Druzhbe (Friendship Enforcement) (Policy Memo No. 110) Vitali Silitski………………………………………………………………………………………7 Polish Public Opinion Toward Russia in the Aftermath of Smolensk: An Opportunity for Improved Relations (Policy Memo No. 111) Joshua Tucker…………………………………………………………………………………….13 Finlandization or Strategy of Keeping the Balance? Azerbaijan‘s Foreign Policy since the Russian-Georgian War (Policy Memo No. 112) Anar Valiyev……………………………………………………………………………………..19 RISING FEDERALISM? IDENTITY AND CONTROL IN RUSSIA’S REGIONS A Vicious Circle: The Security Implications of Rising Anti-Americanism in the North Caucasus (Policy Memo No. 113) Mikhail Alexseev…………………………………………………………………………………25 The Terrorism-Corruption Nexus in the North Caucasus (Policy Memo No. 114) Pavel Baev………………………………………………………………………………………............31 Local Chronicles vs. National History: The Search for Russian Identity (Policy Memo No. 115) Ivan I. Kurilla……………………………………………………………………………………..7 Russia, Chechnya, and the Sovereign Kadyrov (Policy Memo No. 116) Kimberly Marten………………………………………………………………………………...43 The Evolution of Siloviki Elites: Federal ―Generals‖ in Russian Regions (Policy Memo No. 117) Nikolay Petrov…………………………………………………………………………………...49 1 The Circassian Question in Russian-Georgian Relations (Policy Memo No. 118) Sufian Zhemukhov.........................................................................................................................57 A NEW UKRAINE? MAKING SENSE OF THE YANUKOVYCH REGIME Is a Junior Partner Really a Partner? Making Sense of Ukrainian Foreign Policy (Policy Memo No. 119) Volodymyr Dubovyk .....................................................................................................................63 Ukrainian Teeter-Totter: The Vices and Virtues of Neopatrimonial Democracy (Policy Memo No. 120) Oleksandr Fisun............................................................................................................................69 Is Yanukovych‘s Model of Governance Drifting Toward Russian Shores? (Policy Memo No. 121) Olexiy Haran ................................................................................................................................75 Can Ukraine Still Perform Its Balancing Act? (Policy Memo No. 122) Arkady Moshes..............................................................................................................................81 Security Bridge or Vacuum in Post-Orange Ukraine: How Operative is the Euro-Atlantic Integration Toolbox? (Policy Memo No. 123) Oleksandr Sushko..........................................................................................................................85 RUSSIAN MODERNIZATION Russian-Chinese Oil Relations: Dominance or Negotiation? (Policy Memo No. 124) Andrew Barnes..............................................................................................................................91 Russia‘s State Armaments Program 2020: Is the Third Time the Charm for Military Modernization? (Policy Memo No. 125) Dmitry Gorenburg.........................................................................................................................97 Can Brazil Be A Model of Development for Russia? (Policy Memo No. 126) Robert Orttung and Roger Tissot................................................................................................103 Russia‘s Mortality Crisis: Will We Ever Learn? (Policy Memo No. 127) Vladimir Popov............................................................................................................................109 2 IS EUROPEAN-EURASIAN SECURITY A VIABLE GOAL? Russia and the Eastern Partnership States in a New European Security Architecture (Policy Memo No. 128) Irina Kobrinskaya........................................................................................................................115 Hard, Soft, or Human? Security Discourses in the EU, NATO, and Russia (Policy Memo No. 129) Andrey Makarychev....................................................................................................................119 Modernizing Sovereign Democracy? Russian Political Thinking and the Future of the ―Reset‖ (Policy Memo No. 130) Viatcheslav Morozov...................................................................................................................125 New Actors, Old Obstacles: Security Cooperation in Eurasia (Policy Memo No. 131) Mikhail Rykhtik...........................................................................................................................131 CONFLICT AND TRADITION Averting Central Asian Rwandas (Policy Memo No. 132) Georgi Derluguian.......................................................................................................................137 A Return to Tradition? Aspects of Postwar Political Culture in Nagorno-Karabakh (Policy Memo No. 133) Nona Shahnazarian.....................................................................................................................141 3 4 About the Authors Mikhail A. Alexseev is Professor of Political Science at San Diego State University. He specializes in comparative analysis of migration and ethnic conflict. His latest book is Immigration Phobia and the Security Dilemma: Russia, Europe, and the United States (Cambridge, 2006), and his current research focuses on the social and political implications of the Hajj pilgrimage in the North Caucasus. Pavel K. Baev is Research Professor at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). His current research projects focus on Russian military reform, Russia‘s conflict management in the Caucasus and Central Asia, energy interests in Russia‘s foreign and security policy, and Russia‘s relations with Europe and NATO. He has recently authored a book entitled Russian Energy Policy and Military Power: Putin's Quest for Greatness (Routledge, 2008). Andrew Barnes is Associate Professor of Political Science at Kent State University. His research interests include the international political economy of oil, Russian property reform, and the links between markets and democracy. His first book was called Owning Russia: The Struggle over Factories, Farms, and Power (Cornell, 2006). Georgi Derluguian is Associate Professor of Sociology at Northwestern University. Born in Krasnodar, he studied African history at Moscow State University. His work on the rise of communist states and the role of nationalism in their demise informs his award-winning book, Bourdieu's Secret Admirer in the Caucasus: A World-System Biography (Chicago, 2005). Most recently, he co-edited an authoritative three-volume collection on the current global crisis (NYU, 2011). Volodymyr Dubovyk is Associate Professor of International Relations and Director of the Center for International Studies at Odessa National University. He has conducted research at the Kennan Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars (1997, 2006-2007) and at the Center for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland (2002). He is the co- author of Ukraine and European Security (Macmillan, 1999) and has published numerous articles on U.S.-Ukraine relations, regional and international security, and Ukraine‘s foreign policy. Oleksandr Fisun is Professor and Chair of Political Science at Kharkiv National University, and Founding Editor of the Oikumena: Journal for Global and Comparative Studies. His primary research interests are comparative politics and democratic theory. Dr. Fisun held visiting fellowships at the
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