Contribution to the knowledge of the populations of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) inhabiting extreme conditions of temperature and alkalinity Titus Chemandwa Ndiwa
To cite this version:
Titus Chemandwa Ndiwa. Contribution to the knowledge of the populations of Nile tilapia (Ore- ochromis niloticus) inhabiting extreme conditions of temperature and alkalinity. Biodiversity. Uni- versité Montpellier II - Sciences et Techniques du Languedoc, 2014. English. NNT : 2014MON20114. tel-01542402
HAL Id: tel-01542402 https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01542402 Submitted on 19 Jun 2017
HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés.
Délivré par UNIVERSITE MONTPELLIER 2 Préparée DXVHLQGHO·pFROHGRFWRUDOH SIBAGHE (WGHO·XQLWpGHUHFKHUFKH ISE-M 6SpFLDOLWp %LRORJLHGHO¶(YROXWLRQHW(FRORJLH Présentée par 7LWXV&KHPDQGZD1GLZD Contribution à la connaissance des populations du tilapia du Nil ( 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV ) vivant dans des conditions extrêmes de température et G·DOFDOLQLWp
Soutenue le 19/12/2014 devant le jury composé de Mme Janice Briton Davidian, Directeur de Recherche, CNRS Invitée Mme Dorothy Wanja Nyingi, Researcher, NMK Co-encadrant M. Paul Alibert, MC, Université de Bourgogne Rapporteur M. Didier Paugy, Directeur de Recherche, IRD Président M. Jean-François Agnèse, Directeur de Recherche, IRD Dir. de thèse
0 7DEOHRIFRQWHQWV 7DEOHRIFRQWHQWV
$FURQ\PVDQGDEEUHYLDWLRQV
$FNQRZOHGJHPHQW
5pVXPp
$EVWUDFW
*HQHUDOLQWURGXFWLRQ
&RQWH[WRIWKHUHVHDUFK ...... 9
1DWXUDOSRSXODWLRQVRI1LOHWLODSLD ...... 9
5HIHUHQFHV
, $QLPSRUWDQWQDWXUDOJHQHWLFUHVRXUFHRI 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV /LQQDHXV WKUHDWHQHGE\ DTXDFXOWXUHDFWLYLWLHVLQ/RERLGUDLQDJH.HQ\D
$EVWUDFW
,QWURGXFWLRQ
0DWHULDOVDQGPHWKRGV
6DPSOLQJGHVLJQ ...... 24
'1$H[WUDFWLRQVHTXHQFLQJDQGPLFURVDWHOOLWHDQDO\VLV ...... 25
'DWDDQDO\VLV ...... 26
6HTXHQFHDQDO\VHV ...... 26
*HQRW\SHDQDO\VHV ...... 26
5HVXOWV
PW'1$GLIIHUHQWLDWLRQ ...... 27
0LFURVDWHOOLWHDQDO\VLV ...... 28
'LVFXVVLRQ
$FNQRZOHGJHPHQWV
5HIHUHQFHV
,, 3RSXODWLRQGLIIHUHQFHVLQWKH613VDVVRFLDWHGWRVH[IRXQGLQWKH DPK JHQHRI1LOHWLODSLDDQG LGHQWLILFDWLRQRIVH[UHYHUVHGILVK
$EVWUDFW
1 ,QWURGXFWLRQ
0DWHULDOVDQG0HWKRGV
)LVKVDPSOHGDQGSKHQRW\SLFVH[LGHQWLILFDWLRQ ...... 62
*HQRPLF'1$H[WUDFWLRQ3&5DPSOLILFDWLRQDQGVHTXHQFLQJ ...... 63
6HTXHQFHDQDO\VLVWRLGHQWLI\613GLIIHUHQFHV ...... 64
8VHRI;DQG<PDUNHUVWRLGHQWLI\JHQRW\SLFVH[ ...... 64
5HVXOWVDQG'LVFXVVLRQ
613LGHQWLILHGRQWKHF\SDDSURPRWHUUHJLRQ ...... 66
613VLGHQWLILHGRQWKHZWEJHQHEHWZHHQH[RQDQG ...... 67
+LJKDPRXQWRI613VLGHQWLILHGRQWKHDPKJHQH ...... 68
)LQGLQJRI613VLQWKHDPKJHQHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHSKHQRW\SLFVH[ ...... 68
)&$DQDO\VLVRI613V ...... 70
8VHRI;DQG<PDUNHUVWRLGHQWLI\VH[UHYHUVDOLQGLYLGXDOV ...... 70
$FNQRZOHGJHPHQWV
5HIHUHQFHV
,,, 0RUSKRORJLFDOYDULDWLRQVRIZLOGSRSXODWLRQVRI1LOHWLODSLDOLYLQJLQH[WUHPHHQYLURQPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQVLQWKH.HQ\DQ5LIW9DOOH\
$EVWUDFW
,QWURGXFWLRQ
0DWHULDOVDQGPHWKRGV
6WXG\DUHDV ...... 107
&ROOHFWLRQRIVDPSOHV ...... 107
*HRPHWULFPRUSKRPHWULFV ...... 107
'DWDDQDO\VLV ...... 108
5HVXOWV
0HDVXUHPHQWHUURU ...... 109
6L]HYDULDWLRQ ...... 109
6KDSHYDULDWLRQ SFD ...... 109
2 'LIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQSRSXODWLRQV DQGHYHQWXDOO\KDELWDWV ...... 109
'LVFXVVLRQ
$FNQRZOHGJHPHQW
5HIHUHQFHV
,9 *HQHUDOGLVFXVVLRQ
1HZJHQHWLFUHVRXUFHVXQGHUWKUHDWWKHFDVHRI/RERL6ZDPSKRWVSULQJSRSXODWLRQV ...... 132
6H[GHWHUPLQDWLRQLQ2QLORWLFXV7KHXVHIXOQHVVRIWKH/RERL+RW6SULQJVSRSXODWLRQVWR GLVHQWDQJOHWKHFRPSOH[UROHRIWHPSHUDWXUH ...... 135
0RUSKRORJLFDOGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQLQ2QLORWLFXV*HQHWLFYHUVXVSODVWLFLW\ZKDWGRZHOHDUQIURP SRSXODWLRQVOLYLQJLQH[WUHPHHQYLURQPHQWV" ...... 138
)XWXUHUHVHDUFKSHUVSHFWLYH ...... 139
5HIHUHQFHV
5pVXPpGpWDLOOpGHODWKqVH
9DULDWLRQVPRUSKRORJLTXHVDXVHLQGHVSRSXODWLRQVQDWXUHOOHVGHWLODSLDGX1LOYLYDQWVGDQVGHV FRQGLWLRQVHQYLURQQHPHQWDOHVH[WUrPHVGDQVODYDOOpHGX5LIWGX.HQ\D
'HVSRSXODWLRQVQDWXUHOOHVUHVVRXUFHVJpQpWLTXHVLPSRUWDQWHVG¶ 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV /LQQDHXV PLVHVHQGDQJHUSDUGHVDFWLYLWpVDTXDFROHVGDQVOHEDVLQGHOD/RERLDX.HQ\D
/HV613GXJHQHDPKOLHVDX[VH[HVVRQWGLIIpUHQWVVXLYDQWOHVSRSXODWLRQVGH7LOSLDGX1LO
5HIHUHQFHV
3 $FURQ\PVDQGDEEUHYLDWLRQV
$0+ ±$QWL0OOHULDQ+RUPRQH
$129$ ±$QDO\VLVRI9DULDQFH
%,& ±%D\HVLDQ,QIRUPDWLRQ&ULWHULRQ
&H0(% ±&HQWUH0pGLWHUUDQpHQGHO¶(QYLURQQHPHQWHWGHOD%LRGLYHUVL Wp
'0 ±'LVWDQFH0HWKRG
(6' ±(QYLURQPHQWDO6H['HWHUPLQDWLRQ
(63 ±(FRQRPLF6WLPXOXV3URJUDPPH
)&$ ±)DFWRULDO&RUUHVSRQGHQFH$QDO\VLV
*,)7 ±*HQHWLFDOO\,PSURYHG)DUPHG7LODSLD
*6' ±*HQHWLF6H['HWHUPLQDWLRQ
,5' ±,QVWLWXWGH5HFKHUFKHSRXUOH'pYHORSSHPHQW
,6(0 ±,QVWLWXWGHV6FLHQFHVGHO¶(YROXWLRQGH0RQWSHOOLHU
.(1:(% ±.HQ\D:HWODQGV%LRGLYHUVLW\UHVHDUFKJURXS
.:6 ±.HQ\D:LOGOLIH6HUYLFH
/'$ ±/LQHDU'LVFULPLQDQW$QDO\VLV
0$1&29$ ±0XOWLYDULDWH$QDO\VLVRI&RYDULDQFH
0&0& ±0DUNRY&KDLQ0RQWH&DUOR
0( ±0HDVXUHPHQW(UURU
0(*$ ±0ROHFXODU(YROXWLRQDU\*HQHWLFV$QDO\VLV
0/ ±0D[LPXP/LNHOLKRRG
05$& ±0XVpH5R\DOGHO¶$IULTXH&HQWUDOH
10. ±1DWLRQDO0XVHXPVRI.HQ\D
3&$ ±3ULQFLSDO&RPSRQHQW$QDO\VLV
6/ ±6WDQGDUG/HQJWK
613 ±6LQJOH1XFOHRWLGH3RO\PRUSKLVP
76' ±7HPSHUDWXUH6H['HWHUPLQDWLRQ
4 86' ±8QLWHG6WDWHV'ROODU
5 $FNQRZOHGJHPHQW , DP JUHDWO\ LQGHEWHG WR P\ WKHVLV VXSHUYLVRUV 'U -HDQ)UDQoRLVH $JQqVH 'U 'RURWK\ :DQMD1\LQJL 'U +HOHQD'¶&RWWD'U-HDQ )UDQoRLVH %DURLOOHU DQG'U-XOLDQ&ODXGHIRU WKHLUJXLGDQFHDQGVXSSRUWWKDWVDZVXFFHVVIXOFRPSOHWLRQRIWKLVZRUN,DPDOVRJUDWHIXOWR (ULFN'HVPDUDLV-RVHSK*DWKXD)UHGHULTXH&HTXHLUUD(ORGLH3HSH\DQG*LOEHUW.RVJHLIRU WKHLUDVVLVWDQFHLQGDWDFROOHFWLRQODERUDWRU\ZRUN0\VLQFHUHWKDQNVWR'U'LGLHU3DXJ\'U 3DXO $OLEHUW DQG3URI-DQLFH%ULWRQ 'DYLGLDQ IRUWKHLULQYDOXDEOHFRPPHQWV DQGLQVLJKWIXO VXJJHVWLRQVWKDWFRQWULEXWHGWRLPSURYHPHQWRIWKLVZRUN
0\ GHHSHVW DSSUHFLDWLRQ JRHV WR 0LQLVWHUH GHV $IIDLUHV (WUDQJHUHV 0$( DQG ,QVWLWXW GH 5HFKHUFKH 3RXU OH 'pYHORSPHQW ,5' IRU ILQDQFLQJ P\ VWXGLHV ,QVWLWXW GHV 6FLHQFH GH O¶(YROXWLRQ0RQWSHOOLHU ,6(0 DQG&,5$'IRUKRVWLQJPHLQWKHLUODERUDWRULHVDQG1DWLRQDO 0XVHXPV RI .HQ\D DQG .HQ\D :HWODQGV %LRGLYHUVLW\ 5HVHDUFK WHDP .(1:(% IRU IDFLOLWDWLQJP\ILHOGZRUNVWXGLHV,DOVRDFNQRZOHGJHWKH8QLYHUVLW\RI0RQWSHOOLHU 80 IRUWKHLUVXSSRUWGXULQJP\WKUHH\HDUVVWXG\LQWKHLQVWLWXWLRQ
/DVWO\ , WKDQN P\ ZLIH 7DELWKD 0DJHUR DQG P\ VRQ 'DYLG 1GLZD IRU WKHLU SDWLHQFH DQG XQGHUVWDQGLQJGXULQJWKHHQWLUHSHULRGRIP\VWXGLHV
6 5pVXPp /HVUHVVRXUFHVJpQpWLTXHVQDWXUHOOHVGX7LODSLDGX1LO 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV VHWURXYHQWHQ $IULTXH&HVUHVVRXUFHV VRQWPHQDFpHVHQUDLVRQGHPRGLILFDWLRQVGHVKDELWDWVQDWXUHOVGHV SRLVVRQVHWGHVLQWURGXFWLRQVLQFRQWU{OpHVG HVSqFHVRXGHVRXFKHVH[RWLTXHV/HVSRSXODWLRQV GHWLODSLDGX1LOTXLYLYHQWGDQVGHVKDELWDWVH[WUrPHVVRQWHPEOpPDWLTXHVGHFHWWHVLWXDWLRQ (OOHV UHSUpVHQWHQW GHV UHVVRXUFHV JpQpWLTXHV RULJLQDOHV HW SRWHQWLHOOHPHQW XWLOHV SRXU O DTXDFXOWXUH&HSHQGDQWOHVSRSXODWLRQVVRQWPHQDFpHVVRLWSDUGHVPRGLILFDWLRQVIRUWHVGH O¶HQYLURQQHPHQW VRLW SDU O¶LQWURGXFWLRQ G HVSqFHV H[RWLTXHV GDQV OHXU KDELWDW /D FDUDFWpULVDWLRQ GH FHV SRSXODWLRQV FRQVWLWXH OD SUHPLqUH pWDSH GH OHXU SURWHFWLRQ HW SDU FRQVpTXHQWOHXUXWLOLVDWLRQHQDTXDFXOWXUH'DQVQRWUHpWXGHQRXVQRXVVRPPHVFRQFHQWUpV VXUGHX[SRSXODWLRQVGLIIpUHQWHVGHWLODSLDGX1LO/¶XQHG¶HQWUHHOOHVYLHGDQVOHODFDOFDOLQ µ&URFRGLOH/DNH¶ 6FPS+ TXLHVWXQ ODFGHFUDWqUHVLWXpGDQV&HQWUDO,VODQGDX PLOLHX GX ODF 7XUNDQD /D GHX[LqPH SRSXODWLRQ RX JURXSH GH SRSXODWLRQ YLH GDQV OHV VRXUFHV FKDXGHV +RW 6SULQJV GXPDUDLV GH /RERL /RERL 6ZDPS SUqVGXODF%RJRULDDX .HQ\D&HVSRLVVRQVYLYHQWGDQVXQHHDXFDUDFWpULVpHSDUGHVWHPSpUDWXUHVpOHYpHVDXWRXUGH F7RXWHVOHVSRSXODWLRQVFLGHVVXV &URFRGLOH/DNHHW /RERLVZDPS+RW6SULQJV RQW FRQQX RX FRQQDLVVHQW XQ FHUWDLQ QRPEUH GH SUHVVLRQV VpOHFWLYHV GH OD SDUW GH OHXUV HQYLURQQHPHQWVGLIILFLOHV3RXUOHODF&URFRGLOHOHVSRLVVRQVRQWFHUWDLQHPHQWGXWURXYHUXQ PR\HQG H[FUpWHUOHXUVGpFKHWVD]RWpVFDUjS+O H[FUpWLRQQ HVWSDVSRVVLEOHSDUVLPSOH GLIIXVLRQ3RXUOHVSRSXODWLRQVGHVRXUFHVFKDXGHVODSOXSDUWGHVLQGLYLGXVGHYUDLHQWrWUHGHV PkOHV FDU OHV KDXWHV WHPSpUDWXUHV VRQW FRQQXHV SRXU LQGXLUH XQH PDVFXOLQLVDWLRQ FKH] 2 QLORWLFXV &HWWHSRSXODWLRQGRLWDYRLUDFFXPXOpGHVPXWDWLRQVQpFHVVDLUHVSRXUOXLSHUPHWWUH GHVXUPRQWHUOHVHIIHWVPDVFXOLQLVDQWVGHVWHPSpUDWXUHVpOHYpHV3RXUpWXGLHUFHVSRSXODWLRQV QRXVDYRQVXWLOLVpODPRUSKRPpWULHJpRPpWULTXHHWGHVPDUTXHXUVJpQpWLTXHV PLFURVDWHOOLWHV HW $'1PW HWQRXV OHV DYRQVFRPSDUpV jG DXWUHV SRSXODWLRQV SURFKHV GHODUpJLRQ (Q RXWUH WURLV JqQHV OLpV DX VH[H &\SD :WE $0+ RQW pWp DQDO\VpV HQ XWLOLVDQW GHV PDUTXHXUV613GDQVWURLVSRSXODWLRQVGHWLODSLDGX1LOKDELWDQWOHVVRXUFHVFKDXGHVGXPDUDLV GH/RERLHWQRXVOHVDYRQVFRPSDUpVjFHX[TXHO¶RQREVHUYHFKH]KXLWDXWUHVSRSXODWLRQVGH O $IULTXH GH O (VW OD UpJLRQ VRXGDQRVDKpOLHQQH HW pWKLRSLHQQHV 'HV GLIIpUHQFHV PRUSKRORJLTXHV VLJQLILFDWLYHV RQW pWp REVHUYpHV HQWUH WRXWHV OHV SRSXODWLRQV pWXGLpHV \ FRPSULV HQWUHOHVWURLV SRSXODWLRQVYRLVLQHV GX PDUDLV /RERL HW HQWUHOHV GHX[SRSXODWLRQV JpQpWLTXHPHQWOLpHVGX&URFRGLOH/DNHHWGXODF7XUNDQD1RXVFRQFOXRQVGHFHWWHDQDO\VH TXHOHVGLIIpUHQFHVPRUSKRORJLTXHVREVHUYpHVSHXYHQWDYRLUFRPPHRULJLQHSRXUXQHSDUWGHV GLIIpUHQFHV JpQpWLTXHV HW SRXU XQH DXWUH SDUW GHV IDFWHXUV HQYLURQQHPHQWDX[ 'H PrPH WRXWHVOHVSRSXODWLRQVpWXGLpHVVRQWJpQpWLTXHPHQWGLIIpUHQFLpHVHWQRXVDYRQWPRQWUpTXHOHV SRSXODWLRQVGXPDUDLV/RERLHWFHOOHGXODF%DULQJRRQWpWpLQWURJUHVVpHVVSDUGHVJqHVGH 2 OHXFRVWLFWXV /HV DQDO\VHV GHV JqQHV OLpV DX VH[H RQW UpYpOp TXH OH JqQH $0+ HVW XQ JqQH FDQGLGDWSRXUODGpWHUPLQDWLRQGXVH[HFKH]OHWLODSLDGX1LODYHF613VPRQWUDQWGHIRUWHV DVVRFLDWLRQVDYHFOHVH[HSKpQRW\SLTXHGHVLQGLYLGXV1pDQPRLQVLOQ H[LVWHSDVGHPRGqOH JpQpUDOGHODGpWHUPLQDWLRQGXVH[HLOVHPEOHSOXW{WTXHOHVPpFDQLVPHVGHGpWHUPLQDWLRQGX VH[HVRQWGLIIpUHQWVVXLYDQWOHVSRSXODWLRQVGHFHWWHHVSqFHHWTX¶LOQ¶H[LVWHSDVGHPpFDQLVPH XQLTXHSRXUO HVSqFHHQWLqUH
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
.H\ZRUGV 1LOHWLODSLDPW'1$PLFURVDWHOOLWHV613QDWXUDOSRSXODWLRQVH[GHWHUPLQDWLRQ PRUSKRORJ\JHQHWLFYDULDELOLW\
8 *HQHUDOLQWURGXFWLRQ
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q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
(YHQWKRXJK1LOHWLODSLDLVDQLQYDVLYHVSHFLHVLQPDQ\ULYHUGUDLQDJHV DQGKDVVRPHWLPHV EHHQDFFXVHGRIEHLQJEHKLQGWKHGLVDSSHDUDQFHRIVRPHILVKVSHFLHV 2JXWX2KZD\R LWVQDWXUDOSRSXODWLRQVDUHDOVRXQGHUWKUHDW 1\LQJL HWDO 1\LQJLDQG$JQqVH 7KHPDLQWKUHDWLVFHUWDLQO\K\EULGL]DWLRQZLWKRWKHUVSHFLHVRUSRSXODWLRQV7KLVVLWXDWLRQLV EHFRPLQJHYHQPRUHFULWLFDOHVSHFLDOO\DIWHUWKHUHFHQWLQWURGXFWLRQRI*HQHWLFDOO\,PSURYHG )DUPHG *,)7 6WUDLQVRI 2QLORWLFXV LQWR$IULFD $QVDK HWDO
1DWXUDOSRSXODWLRQVRI1LOHWLODSLD 7UHZDYDV ZDVWKHILUVWWRVWXG\QDWXUDOSRSXODWLRQVRI1LOHWLODSLD%DVHGRQWKHVWXG\ RI WKHLUPRUSKRORJLFDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV VKH GHVFULEHG VHYHQVXEVSHFLHV 2QQLORWLFXV IURP
9 :HVW$IULFDDQG5LYHU1LOH 2QEDULQJRHQVLV IURP/DNH%DULQJR 2QVXJXWDH IURP5LYHU 6XJXWD .HQ\D 2QHGXDUGLDQXV IURP/DNHV(GZDUG$OEHUW*HRUJHDQG7DQJDQ\LND 2 QYXOFDQL IURP/DNH7XUNDQD 2QFDQFHOODWXV IURP5LYHU$ZDVKDQG/DNH7DQDDQG 2Q ILORD IURP KRWVSULQJVLQWKH$ZDVKV\VWHP
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
0RUHSUREOHPDWLFLVWKHDEVHQFHRIDQ\FRQVLGHUDWLRQRUGHILQLWLRQRIZKDWLVRUZKDWVKRXOG EHDVXEVSHFLHV$UHWKH\HTXLYDOHQWWR(YROXWLRQDU\8QLWV 5\GHU:DSOHV RUGR WKH\ VLPSO\ UHSUHVHQW PRUSKRORJLFDOO\ GLIIHUHQWLDWHG SRSXODWLRQV ZLWKRXW DQ\ HYROXWLRQDU\ VLJQLILFDQFH",WLVWKXVQR WHDV\WRXQGHUVWDQGZKDWZDVWKH³VXEVSHFLHVFRQFHSW´DGRSWHGE\ WKLVDXWKRU)RUH[DPSOH 2QFDQFHOODWXV DQG 2QILORD DUHSUHVHQWLQWKHVDPHGUDLQDJH WKH$ZDVK5LYHU7KLVVLWXDWLRQREYLRXVO\ZRXOGEHWWHUILWLQWRDFODVVLILFDWLRQRIWZRHQWLUHO\ GLIIHUHQWVSHFLHVRUWZRGLIIHUHQWHFRSKHQRW\SHVRIWKHVDPHVSHFLHV7KHVDPHVLWXDWLRQLV IRXQGZLWK 2QHGXDUGLDQXV LQ/DNH(GZDUGZKLFKLVLQFRQWDFWZLWK 2QQLORWLFXV LQWKH 1LOH5LYHU)LQDOO\LWDSSHDUHGWKDWWKHDXWKRUREVHUYHGVRPHDPRXQWRIYDULDELOLW\EHWZHHQ SRSXODWLRQVDQGIRXQGLW³FRQYHQLHQWWRSURYLGHWKHPZLWKQDPHVLIRQO\WRSUHVHUYHWKHLU LGHQWLW\IRUDQ\IXUWKHUH[SHULPHQWHURUILVKPDQDJHU´ FLWDWLRQIURPSDJHODVWVHQWHQFH
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
10 VKDSHYDULDEOHV 'HDQ HWDO 7KHWHFKQLTXHDOVR JHQHUDWHVLPDJHV RIFHQWURLGVKDSH ZKLFKUHSUHVHQWVWKHIRUPRIWKHVDPSOHDQGFDQEHXVHGWRLQIHUPRUSKRORJLFDOGLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQGLIIHUHQWJURXSVRIRUJDQLVPVEHLQJVWXGLHG
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
0RUHUHFHQWO\WKHXVHRIJHQHWLFWHFKQLTXHV DOOR]\PHVPW'1$VHTXHQFHVPLFURVDWHOOLWHV KDVHQDEOHGPRUHGHWDLOHGDQGUHOLDEOHGHVFULSWLRQRIGLIIHUHQWSRSXODWLRQVRIWKH1LOHWLODSLD )RU H[DPSOH $JQqVH HW DO VWXGLHG QDWXUDO SRSXODWLRQV UHSUHVHQWLQJ DOO VHYHQ VXEVSHFLHVGHVFULEHGE\7UHZDYDV DQGFOXVWHUHGWKHPLQWRWKUHHPDMRUJURXSV:HVW $IULFDQ SRSXODWLRQV (WKLRSLDQ 5LIW9DOOH\ SRSXODWLRQV DQG 1LOH DQG .HQ\DQ 5LIW9DOOH\ SRSXODWLRQV
2WKHUJHQHWLFVWXGLHVKDYHEHHQFRQGXFWHGRQZLOGSRSXODWLRQVRI1LOHWLODSLDGHVFULEHGE\ 7UHZDYDV 5RJQRQ HWDO FDUULHGRXWVWXGLHVRQGLIIHUHQWSRSXODWLRQVRI1LOH WLODSLD DQG IRXQG FOHDU JHQHWLF GLIIHUHQWLDWLRQ EHWZHHQ ZHVWHUQ 1LJHU 6HQHJDO DQG 9ROWD SRSXODWLRQV DQG HDVWHUQ 0DQ]DOD DQG 7XUNDQD SRSXODWLRQV 7R IXUWKHU DVVHVV WKHLU JHRJUDSKLFDO GLIIHUHQWLDWLRQ 5RJQRQ HW DO VWXGLHG WKH VDPH SRSXODWLRQV XVLQJ
11 PW'1$ 7KHVH WZR VWXGLHV SURYLGHG HYLGHQFH WKDW PRUSKRORJLFDO VLPLODULWLHV EHWZHHQ WKH 1LOH 5LYHU DQG :HVW $IULFDQ SRSXODWLRQV UHIOHFWV FRQYHUJHQFH FRPPRQ DQFHVWUDO PRUSKRORJ\ RU QRQJHQHWLF HQYLURQPHQWDO UHODWHGQHVV UDWKHU WKDQ GHULYHG SK\ORJHQHWLF UHODWHGQHVV 7KLV LPSOLHV WKDW 2 QLORWLFXV QLORWLFXV DV GHILQHG E\ 7UHZDYDV LV QRW YDOLG7KHVDPHDXWKRUV VWXGLHGJHQHIORZEHWZHHQDZLOGSRSXODWLRQRI 2QLORWLFXV DQG 2DXUHXV 2WKHUUHFHQWVWXGLHVZHUHFDUULHGRXWE\+DVVDQLHQDQG*LOEH\ 1\LQJL DQG $JQqVH 1\LQJL HW DO $QJLHQGD HW DO DQG %H]DXOW HW DO XVLQJ PLWRFKRQGULDO DQGRU PLFURVDWHOOLWH PDUNHUV $OO WKHVH VWXGLHV WKRXJK QRW H[KDXVWLYH FRQVLGHULQJ WKH 5LYHUV DQG /DNHV KDYLQJ QDWXUDO SRSXODWLRQV RI 2 QLORWLFXV FRQVWLWXWH D YDOXDEOH GRFXPHQWDWLRQ RI JHQHWLF UHVRXUFHV RI 1LOH WLODSLD $GGLWLRQDOO\ FRPSDULVRQ EHWZHHQ WKHVH VWXGLHV DQG HDUOLHU VWXGLHV E\ 7UHZDYDV ¶V FODVVLILFDWLRQ KDYH VKRZQ GLVFUHSDQFLHVKHQFHWKHQHHGIRUIXUWKHUSK\ORJHQHWLFUHODWLRQVKLSVVWXGLHVHVSHFLDOO\RQWKH (DVW $IULFDQ SRSXODWLRQV RI 1LOH WLODSLD %DVHG RQ WKHVH ODLG GRZQ IRXQGDWLRQ WKLV VWXG\ VHHNVWRFKDUDFWHUL]HVRPHRI 2QLORWLFXV SRSXODWLRQVIRXQGLQ(DVW$IULFDXVLQJPW'1$DQG PLFURVDWHOOLWHPDUNHUV 0RUHUHFHQWO\DQHZSRSXODWLRQRI 2QLORWLFXV ZDVGLVFRYHUHGLQ/DNH%RJRULD+RWHO6SULQJ LQ.HQ\D 1\LQJL HWDO )LJ 7KLVKRWVSULQJ a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
12 ZLWKLQWKH/DNH¶VFDWFKPHQW,QWKLVILUVWVWXG\LWDSSHDUHGWKDWWKHPW'1$LQWURJUHVVLRQRI 2 OHXFRVWLFWXV JHQHVZLWKLQ 2QLORWLFXV ZDVQRWDFFRPSDQLHGE\DQ\QXFOHDULQWURJUHVVLRQ7ZR RWKHUKRWVSULQJVH[LVWLQWKLVVZDPSDQGKRVW1LOHWLODSLDSRSXODWLRQVZKLFKKDYHQRWDV\HW EHHQLQYHVWLJDWHG
+RZHYHU GXH WR LQFUHDVHG GHYHORSPHQWV LQ DTXDFXOWXUH SURMHFWV ZLWKLQ WKH /DNHV %DULQJR DQG%RJRULDGUDLQDJHV 0XPED1\LQJLDQG$JQqVH7KH)LVK6LWH LWLV QHFHVVDU\ WR FDUU\ RXW D PRUH FRPSOHWH VXUYH\ RI WKH QDWXUDO SRSXODWLRQV IURP WKH /DNH %DULQJR DQG IURP WKH /RERL VZDPS KRW VSULQJV LQ RUGHU WR FKDUDFWHUL]H DQ\ K\EULGL]DWLRQ HYHQWV
7KHUHIRUHLQ RUGHUWR EHWWHUJHQHWLFDOO\FKDUDFWHUL]HWKHQHZKRW VSULQJ SRSXODWLRQV DQGWR HYDOXDWH WKH LQWURJUHVVLRQ E\ 2 OHXFRVWLFWXV JHQHV ZH VWXGLHG PW'1$ VHTXHQFHV 'ORRS DQGPLFURVDWHOOLWHVLQWKHWKUHH/RERLKRWVSULQJSRSXODWLRQV/DNH%DULQJRSRSXODWLRQDV ZHOODVLQRWKHUQDWXUDOSRSXODWLRQVRI1LOHWLODSLDLQWKHUHJLRQ
7KLV VWXG\ LV SDUWLFXODUO\ LPSRUWDQW EHFDXVH WKHVH SRSXODWLRQV UHSUHVHQW LPSRUWDQW JHQHWLF UHVRXUFHV IRU WKH VSHFLHV ,Q .HQ\D WKH QDWXUDO SRSXODWLRQV RI 1LOH WLODSLD ZLWKLQ WKH 5LIW 9DOOH\ UHSUHVHQW D ODUJH SRUWLRQ RI WKH VSHFLHV JHQHWLF UHVRXUFHV 7KH PRVW LPSRUWDQW SRSXODWLRQV DPRQJ WKHVH JHQHWLF UHVRXUFHV DUH WKH WKUHH SRSXODWLRQV RI /RERL 6ZDPS ,Q RUGHUWRXQGHUVWDQGDQGDSSUHFLDWHWKHXVHIXOQHVVLWLVQHFHVVDU\WRFRQVLGHUKRZWKHFXOWXUH RI 2QLORWLFXV LVXQGHUWDNHQ
,Q VSLWH RI DOO WKH IDYRXUDEOH TXDOLWLHV WKDW 1LOH WLODSLD RIIHUV DV D FXOWXUH ILVK DQG WKH WHFKQRORJLFDO DGYDQFHV LQ LWV DTXDFXOWXUH WKH YLDELOLW\ RI WKLV FRPPHUFLDO SURGXFWLRQ LV JUHDWO\DIIHFWHGE\LWVSUROLILFEUHHGLQJZKLFKIUHTXHQWO\UHVXOWVWRRYHUFURZGLQJDQGVWXQWHG JURZWK LQ WKH SRQGV +LFNOLQJ 7KLV OHG WR WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ RI DOO PDOH PRQRVH[ FXOWXUHVZLWKWKHDLPRILPSURYLQJSURGXFWLYLW\DQGDOVRWREHQHILWIURPWKHIDVWHUJURZWKRI PDOHVDVFRPSDUHGWRIHPDOHV 0pODUG7RJX\pQL HWDO %DUDVDQG0pODUG $GGLWLRQDOO\ UHDULQJ RI PDOH PRQRVH[ SRSXODWLRQV LV PRUH DGYDQWDJHRXV FRPSDUHG WR IHPDOHVDVWKHIRUPHUFDQDOORFDWHPRUHHQHUJ\WRZDUGVJURZWK LQVWHDGRIUHSURGXFWLRQ WKXV LQFUHDVLQJSURGXFWLYLW\ 2OGILHOG $VDUHVXOWVHYHUDOPHWKRGVRISURGXFLQJPRQRVH[ SRSXODWLRQVKDYHEHHQHVWDEOLVKHGLQFOXGLQJPDQXDOVH[LQJZKLFKLQYROYHVVHSDUDWLQJPDOHV IURPIHPDOHVK\EULGL]DWLRQWRSURGXFHPDOHPRQRVH[SRSXODWLRQVKRUPRQDOWUHDWPHQWRIIU\ ZLWKV\QWKHWLFPDOHKRUPRQH DOSKDPHWK\OWHVWHVWRURQH JHQHWLFPDQLSXODWLRQWRSURGXFH << µVXSHUPDOHV¶RUWUHDWPHQWRIIU\ZLWKKLJKWHPSHUDWXUHV §& +LFN OLQJV0DLU
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¶&RWWD 7HVVHPD HWDO %H]DXOW HWDO :HVVHOVDQG+|UVWJHQ6FKDZDUN%DURLOOHU HWDO +RZHYHU<<PDOHVIDLOHGWRV\VWHPDWLFDOO\SURGXFHDOOPDOHSRSXODWLRQVGXHWR WKHFRPSOH[VH[GHWHUPLQDWLRQV\VWHPRIWLODSLD%HVLGHV WKHPDVFXOLQL]LQJHIIHFWVRIKLJK WHPSHUDWXUHV RQ D SURJHQ\ GHSHQG RQ JHQHWLF IDFWRUV EURXJKW E\ WKH WZR SDUHQWV 7KLV WKHUPRVHQVLWLYLW\ DV D KHULWDEOH WUDLW FDQ EH VHOHFWHG LQ WKH 1LOH WLODSLD %DURLOOHU DQG '¶&RWWD7HVVHPD HWDO %H]DXOW HWDO :HVVHOVDQG+|UVWJHQ6FKZDUN %DURLOOHU HWDO +RZHYHUEHFDXVHVH[GHWHUPLQDWLRQFRPELQHVERWKJHQHWLFDQG HQYLURQPHQWDO IDFWRUV LW LV VWLOO GLIILFXOW WR GHYHORS WKHVH VXVWDLQDEOH DSSURDFKHV IRU VH[ FRQWURO
0RVWRIVWXGLHVRQVH[GHWHUPLQDWLRQLQWKHVSHFLHVKDYHEHHQFRQGXFWHGRQGRPHVWLFVWRFNV XVHG IRU DTXDFXOWXUH %H]DXOW HW DO %DVHG RQ REVHUYDWLRQV WKDW VH[ GHWHUPLQDWLRQ V\VWHPVFDQEHYHU\GLYHUVHHYHQEHWZHHQFORVHO\UHODWHGWD[D &KHYDVVXV WKHUHLVD QHHG WR FDUU\ RXW VH[ GHWHUPLQDWLRQ VWXGLHV RQ ZLOG SRSXODWLRQV RI 1LOH WLODSLD XQGHU WKHLU QDWXUDOHQYLURQPHQWVLQRUGHUWRSURYLGHDEHWWHUXQGHUVWDQGLQJRQWHPSHUDWXUHGHSHQGHQWVH[ GHWHUPLQDWLRQPHFKDQLVPVLQ1LOHWLODSLD
%H]DXOW HWDO FDUULHGRXWVH[GHWHUPLQDWLRQVWXGLHVRQZLOGSRSXODWLRQVRI1LOHWLODSLD DGDSWHGWRWKUHHGLIIHUHQWWKHUPDOUHJLPHV H[WUHPHVWDEOHFROGWHPSHUDWXUHVIURP/DNH.RND H[WUHPH VWDEOH ZDUP WHPSHUDWXUHV IURP 0HWDKDUD DQG D KLJKO\ YDULDEOH HQYLURQPHQW LQ .SDQGX/DNH9ROWD 7KHSURJHQLHVRIWKHVHSRSXODWLRQVZHUHDOVRUHDUHGXQGHUFRQWUROOHG ODERUDWRU\FRQGLWLRQV &DQG& 3URJHQLHVIURPWKHVHWKUHHSRSXODWLRQVH[KLELWHGD FOHDUWKHUPRVHQVLWLYLW\ZLWKODUJHYDULDWLRQVLQWKHWHPSHUDWXUHLQGXFHGVH[UDWLRVGHSHQGLQJ
14 RQWKHSDUHQWVEXWDOVRRQWKHSRSXODWLRQV %H]DXOW HWDO 7KLVVWXG\ZDVWKHILUVWWR GHPRQVWUDWH WKDW ERWK JHQHWLF DQG HQYLURQPHQWDO IDFWRUV DUH DOVR LQYROYHG LQ WKH VH[ GHWHUPLQDWLRQRIQDWXUDOSRSXODWLRQVRI1LOHWLODSLDLWDOVRKLJKOLJKWVWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIILHOG LQYHVWLJDWLRQVWREHWWHUXQGHUVWDQGVH[GHWHUPLQDWLRQLQWLODSLD
,Q WKLV UHJDUG WKH /RERL +RW VSULQJ SRSXODWLRQV EHFRPH YHU\ LPSRUWDQW 1RUPDOO\ DW WHPSHUDWXUHVDERYH& DVLVWKHFDVHLQKRWVSULQJVZLWKWHPSHUDWXUHDW& VH[UDWLRV KDYHEHHQREVHUYHGWREHELDVHGWRZDUGVPDOHV2EYLRXVO\WKLVKDVQRWEHHQWKHFDVHLQWKH /RERL6ZDPSKRWVSULQJVZKHUHWKHVH[UDWLRLVFORVHWRPDOHIRUIHPDOH,WLVWKHQYHU\ OLNHO\WKDWWKLVSRSXODWLRQ³KDYHIRXQGDZD\´WRRYHUFRPHWKHWHPSHUDWXUHSUREOHPDIDFW WKDWWKHUHIRUHSUHVHQWVDJUHDWRSSRUWXQLW\WRVWXG\WKHPHFKDQLVPVE\ZKLFKWHPSHUDWXUHDFWV RQVH[GLIIHUHQWLDWLRQ
6XFKZLOGSURJHQLHVZKHUHWHPSHUDWXUHLQIOXHQFHVKDYHEHHQSUREDEO\HOLPLQDWHG LHZKLFK PLJKWEHWKHFDVHIRUWKH.HQ\DQKRWVSULQJV ZLOOEHWKHEHVWUHVRXUFHVIRUWKHVHOHFWLRQRI WLODSLDVWUDLQVWKDWFDQEHXVHGIRUDVWULFWJHQHWLFVH[FRQWURO&RQYHUVHO\ZLOGSRSXODWLRQV IRU ZKLFK KLJK WHPSHUDWXUHV FDQ VWURQJO\ FKDQJH WKH VH[UDWLR WRZDUGV PDOHV DUH SRWHQWLDO UHVRXUFHVIRUVHOHFWLRQRIWLODSLDVXVLQJWHPSHUDWXUHDVDPHDQVWRSURGXFHDOOPDOHSURJHQLHV ,QERWKFDVHVIXUWKHUVWXG\DQGFKDUDFWHULVDWLRQRIZLOGSRSXODWLRQVLVWKHUHIRUHHVVHQWLDO
7HPSHUDWXUH DQG JHQHWLF LQIOXHQFHV RQ VH[ PD\ EH WKH UHVXOW RI DOOHOLF YDULDWLRQV RQ VH[ GLIIHUHQWLDWLQJJHQHV:HWKHUHIRUHVWXGLHG6LQJOH1XFOHRWLGH3RO\PRUSKLVP 613 LQWKUHH PDMRU JHQHV DQWL0XOOHULDQ KRUPRQH DPK DURPDWDVH &\SD :LOP¶V WXPRU :WE WKDW KDYHSUHYLRXVO\EHHQOLQNHGWRVH[GHWHUPLQDWLRQLQ 2QLORWLFXV LQRUGHUWRXQGHUVWDQGWKH DGDSWDWLRQVRIWKHVHSRSXODWLRQVDJDLQVWWKHPDVFXOLQL]LQJHIIHFWRIWKHHOHYDWHGWHPSHUDWXUHV
15 5HIHUHQFHV $JQqVH-)$GHSR*RXUqQH%$EEDQ(.)HUPRQ(*HQHWLFGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQ DPRQJ QDWXUDO SRSXODWLRQV RI WKH 1LOH WLODSLD 2UHRFKURPLV QLORWLFXV 7HOHRVWHL &LFKOLGDH +HUHGLW\
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pODUG & ,QGLYLGXDO JURZWK SDWWHUQV RI MXYHQLOH 1LOH WLODSLD 2UHRFKURPLV QLORWLFXV / HPHUJHQFH DQG G\QDPLFV RI VH[XDO JURZWK GLPRUSKLVP ,Q )LW]VLPPRQV . (G 7LODSLD $TXDFXOWXUH 1RUWKHDVW 5HJLRQDO $JULFXOWXUDO (QJLQHHULQJ 6HUYLFHSS ± %DUDV(-DFREV%DQG0pODUG&(IIHFWVRIZDWHUWHPSHUDWXUHRQVXUYLYDOJURZWK DQG SKHQRW\SLF VH[ RI PL[HG ;;;< SURJHQLHV RI 1LOH WLODSLD 2UHRFKURPLV QLORWLFXV $TXDFXOWXUH %DURLOOHU - ) DQG '¶&RWWD + (QYLURQPHQW DQG V H[ GHWHUPLQDWLRQ LQ IDUPHG ILVK &RPS%LRFKHP3K\VLRO&7R[LFRO3KDUPDFRO %DURLOOHU-)&ORWD)DQG*HUD](E7HPSHUDWXUHVH[GHWHUPLQDWLRQLQWZRWLODSLDV VSHFLHV 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV DQGWKHUHGWLODSLD 5HG)ORULGD6WUDLQ HIIHFWRIKLJKRUORZ WHPSHUDWXUHV ,Q *RHW] ) : 7KRPDV 3 (GV 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH WK ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 6\PSRVLXPRQWKHUHSURGXFWLRQ3K\VLRORJ\RI)LVK7KH8QLYHUVLW\RI7H[DV$XVWLQ7H[DV 86$SS-XO\ %DURLOOHU - ) '¶&RWWD + %H]DXOW ( :HVVHOV 6 DQG +RHUVWJHQ 6FKZDUN * 7LODSLDVH[GHWHUPLQDWLRQZKHUHWHPSHUDWXUHDQGJHQHWLFVPHHW&RPSDUDWLYH%LRFKHPLVWU\ DQG3K\VLRORJ\3DUW$ %DURLOOHU-)-DODEHUW%&RQWULEXWLRQRIUHVHDUFKLQUHSURGXFWLYHSK\VLRORJ\WRWKH FXOWXUHRIWLODSLDV$TXDW/LYLQJ5HVRXU ± %DURLOOHU -) )RVWLHU $ &DXW\ & 5RJQRQ ; DQG -DODEHUW % D (IIHFW RI KLJK UHDULQJ WHPSHUDWXUH RQ WKH VH[ UDWLR RI SURJHQ\ IURP VH[UHYHUVHG PDOHV RI 2UHRFKURPLV QLORWLFXV,Q3XOOLQ569/D]DUG-/HJHQGUH0$PRQNRWKLDV-%3DXO\' (GV 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH 7KLUG 6\PSRVLXP RQ WLODSLD LQ $TXDFXOWXUH ,&/$50 &RQIHUHQFH 3URFHHGLQJVYROSS ± 16 %HDUGPRUH - $ 0DLU * & /HZLV 5 , 0RQRVH[ PDOH SURGXFWLRQ LQ ILQILVK DV H[HPSOLILHGE\WLODSLDDSSOLFDWLRQVSUREOHPVDQGSURVSHFWV$TXDFXOWXUH ±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pVLQYHUVLRQVH[XHOOHKRUPRQDOHJ\QRJHQqVHK\EULGDWLRQLQWHUVSpFLILTXH HWSRO\SORLGDWLRQ8QLYHUVLWp3DULV6XG2UVD\)UDQFH3S 'HDQ&$GDPV)5RKOI-DQG6OLFH'(*HRPHWULFPRUSKRPHWULFV7HQ\HDUV RISURJUHVVIROORZLQJWKH5HYROXWLRQ,WDOLDQ-RXUQDORI=RRORJ\ (NQDWK $ ( DQG $FRVWD % *HQHWLF LPSURYHPHQW RI IDUPHG WLODSLD SURMHFW )LQDO UHSRUW ,&/$500DQLOD (NQDWK$(0DQDJLQJDTXDWLFJHQHWLFUHVRXUFHV0DQDJHPHQWH[DPSOH7KH1LOH WLODSLD,Q7KRUSH-*DOO*/DQQDQ-1DVK& HGV &RQVHUYDWLRQRIILVKDQGVKHOOILVK UHVRXUFHV0DQDJLQJGLYHUVLW\SS$FDGHPLF3UHVV/RQGRQ )LUPDW & +\EULGDWLRQ HW JRXORWV G¶pWUDQJOHPHQW LQGXLWV SDU O¶ DFWLYLWp KXPDLQH JpQpWLTXH GHV SRSXODWLRQV PRUSKRPpWULH HW SDUDVLWRORJLH DSSOLTXpH DX WLODSLD HQYDKLW HW HQYDKLVHVVDQW 2UHRFKURPLV PRVVDPELFXV 7HOHRVWHL &LFKOLGDH 8QLYHUVLWp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pODUG & 5HFKHUFKH VXU OD ELRORJLH G¶ 2UHRFKURPLV 7LODSLD QLORWLFXV / 3LVFHV &LFKOLGDH HQ pOHYDJH H[SpULPHQWDO UHSURGXFWLRQ FURLVVDQFH ELRpQHUJHWLTXH &DKLHUV G¶(WKRORJLH$SSOLTXpH 0RKDPPHG08%RQQHILOOH5DQG-RKQVRQ7&3ROOHQDQGLVRWRSLFUHFRUGVLQ /DWH +RORFHQH VHGLPHQWV IURP /DNH 7XUNDQD .HQ\D 3DODHRJHRJU 3DODHRFOLPDWRO 3DODHRHFRO 0XPED 0 $GDSWLQJ WR FOLPDWH FKDQJH OHVVRQV IURP /DNH %RJRULD FDWFKHPHQW .HQ\D3URJUDPPHUHSRUW1R 1\LQJL ' : DQG $JQqVH -) 5HFHQW LQWURJUHVVLYH K\EULGL]DWLRQ UHYHDOHG E\ H[FOXVLYHPW'1$WUDQVIHUIURP 2UHRFKURPLVOHXFRVWLFWXV 7UHZDYDV WR 2UHRFKURPLV QLORWLFXV /LQQDHXV LQ/DNH%DULQJR.HQ\D-)LVK%LR/DNH 6XSSOHPHQW$ ± 1\LQJL':$JQqVH-)7LODSLDLQHDVWHUQ$IULFD ±DIULHQGDQGIRH6SHFLHVLQWKH 6SRWOLJKW 'DUZDOO :57 6PLWK .* $OOHQ '- +ROODQG 5$ +DUULVRQ ,- DQG %URRNV(*( HGLWRUV 7KH'LYHUVLW\RI /LIHLQ $IULFDQ)UHVKZDWHUV 8QGHU:DWHU 8QGHU 7KUHDW$QDQDO\VLVRIWKHVWDWXVDQGGLVWULEXWLRQRIIUHVKZDWHUVSHFLHVWKURXJKRXWPDLQODQG $IULFD&DPEULGJH8QLWHG.LQJGRPDQG*ODQG6ZLW]HUODQG,8&13S 1\LQJL ' 'H9RV / $PDQ 5 DQG $JQq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|UVWJHQ6FKZDUN * (IIHFW RI UHDULQJ WHPSHUDWXUHVRQWKHVH[UDWLRVRI2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXVSRSXODWLRQV$TXDFXOWXUH ± 7KH )LVK 6LWH ZHEVLWH 'HYHORSLQJ D 7LODSLD EUHHGLQJ VWDWLRQ LQ .HQ\D $YDLODEOH KWWSZZZWKHILVKVLWHFRPDUWLFOHVGHYHORSLQJDWLODSLDEUHHGLQJVWDWLRQLQNHQ\D $FFHVVHGRQ$XJXVW 7RJX\p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µVSHFLHV¶XQGHU WKHHQGDQJHUHGVSHFLHVDFW0DULQH)LVKHULHV5HYLHZV :HVVHOV6+|UVWJHQ6FKZDUN*6HOHFWLRQH[SHULPHQWVWRLQFUHDVHWKHSURSRUWLRQRI PDOHVLQ1LOHWLODSLD 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV E\PHDQVRIWHPSHUDWXUHWUHDWPHQW$TXDFXOWXUH 6 ±6 19 )LJXUH )LJXUH0DSVKRZLQJORFDWLRQRI/DNH%RJRULD+RWHO6SULQJLQ/RERL6ZDPS.HQ\D 20 , $QLPSRUWDQWQDWXUDOJHQHWLFUHVRXUFHRI 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV /LQQDHXV WKUHDWHQHGE\DTXDFXOWXUHDFWLYLWLHVLQ/RERLGUDLQDJH .HQ\D 7LWXV&KHPDQGZD1',:$ 'RURWK\:DQMD1<,1*, -HDQ)UDQoRLV$*1(6( .HQ\D:HWODQGV%LRGLYHUVLW\5HVHDUFK*URXS,FKWK\RORJ\6HFWLRQ1DWLRQDO0XVHXPVRI.HQ\D.HQ\D 'pSDUWHPHQW&RQVHUYDWLRQHW'RPHVWLFDWLRQ805,5'&156,QVWLWXWGHV6FLHQFHGHO¶(YROXWLRQ8QLYHUVLWp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±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pH 5R\DO GH O $IULTXH &HQWUDOH 05$& LQ 7HUYXUHQ %HOJLXP RU DW WKH ,QVWLWXW GHV 6FLHQFHV GH O¶(YROXWLRQ GH 0RQWSHOOLHU ,6(0 )UDQFH 7DEOH, '1$H[WUDFWLRQVHTXHQFLQJDQGPLFURVDWHOOLWHDQDO\VLV $SSUR[LPDWHO\PJRIWKHVDPSOHWLVVXHZDVVKHDUHGLQWRILQHSLHFHVEHIRUHEHLQJGLJHVWHG DW&RYHUQLJKWXVLQJOSURWHLQDVH. P0PO LQPORIDQH[WUDFWLRQEXIIHU VROXWLRQ 0 7ULV 0 1D&O 6'6 '1$ ZDV WKHQ H[WUDFWHG IURP HDFK VDPSOH IROORZLQJWKHSURWRFROGHVFULEHGIRUJHQRPLF'1$H[WUDFWLRQIRU3&5EDVHGWHFKQLTXHV>@ 7KHH[WUDFWHG'1$ZDVVXVSHQGHGLQVWHULOHGRXEOHGLVWLOOHGZDWHUDQGVWRUHGLQ&XQWLO 3&5DPSOLILFDWLRQ$ESIUDJPHQWLQWKHƍUHJLRQRIWKH' ORRSZDVDPSOLILHGLQHDFK VDPS OH XVLQJ WZR SULPHUV ƍ $&&&&7$*&7&&&$$$*&7$ ƍ IRUZDUG DQG ƍ &&7*$$*7$**$&&$*$7* ƍ UHYHUVH $PSOLILFDWLRQV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG LQ D ILQDO YROXPHRIȝOFRQWDLQLQJP00J&O P0RIHDFKG173ȝ0RIHDFKSULPHUȝO RI[EXIIHUDQGXQLWVRI7DTSRO\PHUDVH 3URPHJD 3&5UHDFWLRQFRQGLWLRQVZHUH PLQXWHVSUHKHDWLQJDW&IROORZHGE\F\FOHVRIVHFRQGVDW&VHFRQGVDW &DQGPLQXWHDW&ZLWKDILQDOHORQJDWLRQSKDVHRI&IRUILYHPLQXWHV $ WRWDO RI PLFURVDWHOOLWH ORFL ZHUH DQDO\VHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ 35/$& DQG 35/*7 >@ 81+ *HQ%DQN UHIHUHQFH QXPEHU * 81+ * 81+ * 81+ * 81+ * 81+ * 81+ * 81+ * 81+ * 81+ * 81+ * 81+ * 81+ * DQG81+ * $PSOLILFDWLRQVZHUHFDUULHGRXWXVLQJ4LDJHQ 0XOWLSOH[ 3&5 .LW DQG IROORZLQJ PDQXIDFWXUHU¶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ʌ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ʌ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¼>@(LJKWILVKSRQGV KDYH EHHQ FRQVWUXFWHG EHWZHHQ DQG LQ FORVH SUR[LPLW\ WR WKH /RERL 6ZDPS ZLWKLQ D UDQJH RI ±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¶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³&HQWUH 0pGLWHUUDpHQ GH O¶(QYLURQQHPHQW HW GH OD %LRGLYHUVLWp´ &H0(% :H DUH JUDWHIXO WR )UpGpULTXH &HUTXHLUD (ULFN 'HVPDUDLV ,6(0 DQG -RVHSK *DWKXD 10. DQGIRUWKHLUWHFKQLFDOVXSSRUWLQWKHODERUDWRU\DQGILHOGFROOHFWLRQVGXULQJ WKH VWXG\ :H DUH JUDWHIXO WR 'U -XGLWK 1\XQMD .:6 IRU KHU VXSSRUW GXULQJ VDPSOH FROOHFWLRQVLQ/DNH7XUNDQD)LQDOO\ZHDUHJUDWHIXOWR&)LUPDWIRUXVHIXOFRPPHQWVRQWKH ILUVWGUDIWRIWKLVPDQXVFULSW 5HIHUHQFHV 6KHOWRQ:/ 7LODSLDFXOWXUHLQWKHVWFHQWXU\,Q*XHUUHUR,,,*XHUUHURGHO &DVWLOOR5'05 (GV 7LODSLD)DUPLQJLQ WKHVW&HQWXU\3URF ,QW )RUXP RQ 7LODSLD)DUPLQJLQWKHVW&HQWXU\)HEUXDU\/RV%DxRV3KLOLSSLQHVSS ± 5RPDQD(JXLD055,NHGD0%DVLDR=87DQLJXFKL1 *HQHWLFGLYHUVLW\LQ IDUPHG $VLDQ 1LOH DQG UHG K\EULG WLODSLD VWRFNV HYDOXDWHG IURP PLFURVDWHOOLWH DQG PLWRFKRQGULDO'1$DQDO\VLV$TXDFXOWXUH ± (NQDWK$(DQG+XODWD* 8VHDQGH[FKDQJHRIJHQHWLFUHVRXUFHVRI1LOHWLODSLD 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV 5HYLHZVLQ$TXDFXOWXUH 5RJQRQ ; *X\RPDUG 5 /DUJH H[WHQW RI PLWRFKRQGULDO '1$ WUDQVIHU IURP 2UHRFKURPLVDXUHXVWR2QLORWLFXVLQ:HVW$IULFD0ROHFXODU(FRORJ\ ± 1\LQJL ' 'H9RV / $PDQ 5 $JQqVH -) *HQHWLF FKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ RI DQ XQNQRZQDQGHQGDQJHUHGQDWLYHSRSXODWLRQRIWKH1LOHWLODSLD 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV /LQQDHXV &LFKOLGDH 7HOHRVWHL LQ WKH /RERL 6ZDPS .HQ\D $TXDFXOWXUH 5\PDQ1 &RQVHUYDWLRQJHQHWLFVFRQVLGHUDWLRQVLQILVKHU\PDQDJHPHQW-RXUQDO RI)LVK%LRORJ\ ±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± %DURLOOHU -) ' &RWWD + (QYLURQPHQW DQG VH[ GHWHUPLQDWLRQ LQ IDUPHG ILVK &RPSDUDWLYH%LRFKHPLVWU\DQG3K\VLRORJ\3DUW& 7HVVHPD 0 0XOOHU%HOHFNH $ +RUVWJHQ6FKZDUN * (IIHFWV RI UHDULQJ WHPSHUDWXUHVRQWKHVH[UDWLRVRI 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV SRSXODWLRQV$TXDFXOWXUH ± ± 2ZHQ5%5HQDXW5:+RYHU9&$VKOH\*00XDV\D$0 6ZDPSVVSULQJV DQG GLDWRPV ZHWODQGV UHJLRQV RI WKH VHPLDULG %RJRULD ±%DULQJR 5LIW .HQ\D +\GURELRORJLD ± 1\LQJL ': $JQqVH -) 5HFHQW LQWURJUHVVLYH K\EULGL]DWLRQ UHYHDOHG E\ H[FOXVLYH PW'1$ WUDQVIHU IURP 2UHRFKURPLV OHXFRVWLFWXV 7UHZDYDV WR 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV /LQQDHXV LQ/DNH%DULQJR.HQ\D-)LVK%LR/DNH 6XSSOHPHQW$ ±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± 1HL0 0ROHFXODU(YROXWLRQDU\*HQHWLFV&ROXPELD8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV1HZ 38 PXOWLORFXVJHQRW\SHGDWD *HQHWLFV )DOXVK'6WHSKHQV03ULWFKDUG-. ,QIHUHQFHRISRSXODWLRQVWUXFWXUHXVLQJ PXOWLORFXVJHQRW\SHGDWDOLQNHGORFLDQGFRUUHODWHGDOOHOHIUHTXHQFLHV*HQHWLFV $QGHUVRQ(&DQG7KRPSVRQ($ $PRGHOEDVHGPHWKRGIRULGHQWLI\LQJ VSHFLHVK\EULGVXVLQJPXOWLORFXVJHQHWLFGDWD*HQHWLFV ± $QGHUVRQ(& %D\HVLDQLQIHUHQFHRIVSHFLHVK\EULGVXVLQJPXOWLORFXVGRPLQDQW JHQHWLFPDUNHUV3KLO7UDQV56RF ± +DVHJDZD0.LVKLQR+ 39 &KDSPDQ/-&KDSPDQ&$1RUGOLH)*5RVHQEHUJHU$( 3K\VLRORJLFDO UHIXJLDVZDPSVK\SR[LDWROHUDQFHDQGPDLQWHQDQFHRIILVKGLYHUVLW\LQWKH/DNH 9LFWRULDUHJLRQ&RPS%LRFKHP3K\VLRO$ ± &ULVSR(&KDSPDQ/- 3RSXODWLRQJHQHWLFVWUXFWXUHDFURVVGLVVROYHGR[\JHQ UHJLPHVLQDQ$IULFDQFLFKOLGILVK0ROHFXODU(FRORJ\ ± %DURLOOHU-)'¶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¶¶¶1¶¶¶( 2QLORWLFXV )- 10. 2QLORWLFXV .- 10. ): /RERLVZDPS &KHODED6SULQJ ¶¶¶1¶¶¶( 2QLORWLFXV .- 10. ): /RERLVZDPS 7XUWOH6SULQJ ¶¶¶1¶¶¶( 2QLORWLFXV .- 10. ): /DNH%DULQJR .DPELVDPDNL ¶¶¶1¶¶¶( 2QLORWLFXV .- 10. ): 5REHUWVRQFDPS ¶¶¶1¶¶¶( 2QLORWLFXV () 05$&3 )- 5LYHU6XJXWD .DSHGR ¶¶¶1¶¶¶( 2QLORWLFXV () ,6(0 -)$ /DNH7XUNDQD 1RUWK,VODQG ¶¶¶1¶¶¶( 2QLORWLFXV () 10. )HUJXVVRQ*ROI ¶¶¶1¶¶¶( 2QLORWLFXV .- ,6(0 -)$/7 /DNH$OEHUW %XWLDED ¶¶¶1¶¶¶( 2QLORWLFXV )-)- ,6(0 -)$ 5LYHU6HQHJDO 6DLQW/RXLV ¶¶¶1¶¶¶: 2QLORWLFXV () ,6(0 -)$ /DNH1DLYDVKD ¶¶¶1¶¶¶( 2OHXFRVWLFWXV () ,6(0 -)$ ,QEROGVSHFLPHQVVWXGLHGRUVHTXHQFHVREWDLQHGGXULQJWKHSUHVHQWZRUN,6(0,QVWLWXWGHV 6FL HQFHVGHO¶(YROXWLRQGH0RQWSHOOLHU)UDQFH05$&0XVpH5R\DOGHO¶$IULTXH&HQWUDOH GH7HUYXUHQ%HOJLXP10.1DWLRQDO0XVHXPVRI.HQ\D 41 7DEOH,,PW'1$ SDUWLDO'ORRSVHTXHQFHV YDULDELOLW\REVHUYHGLQRISRSXODWLRQVRI 2 QLORWLFXV 3RSXODWLRQ Q +RE S N ʌ %RJRULD+RWHO 6SULQJ &KHODED6SULQJ 7XUWOH6SULQJ /DNH%DULQJR /DNH7XUNDQD 5LYHU6XJXWD /DNH$OEHUW 5LYHU6HQHJDO Q QXPEHU RI VHTXHQFHV +RE QXPEHU RI GLIIHUHQW KDSORW\SHV REVHUYHG 3 QXPEHU RI SRO\PRUSKLF VLWHV N DYHUDJH QXPEHU RI QXFOHRWLGH GLIIHUHQFH ʌ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igure 1: Map of Loboi Swamp showing the location of the three springs and the fish ponds constructed by the end of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`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oRLV $JQqVH $UQDXG *DJQLHX (WLHQQH %H]DXOW 'RURWK\1\LQJL -HDQ)UDQoRLV%DURLOOHU +HOHQD'¶&RWWD .HQ\D:HWODQGV5HVHDUFK7HDP1DWLRQDO0XVHXPVRI.HQ\D.HQ\D 'pSDUWHPHQW &RQVHUYDWLRQ HW 'RPHVWLFDWLRQ 805 ,5' &156 ,QVWLWXW GHV 6FLHQFHGHO¶(YROXWLRQ8QLYHUVLWpGH0RQWSHOOLHU0RQWSHOOLHU)UDQFH &,5$'805,175(3,''SW3HUV\VW&DPSXV,QWHUQDWLRQDOGH%DLOODUJXHW) 0RQWSHOOLHU)UDQFH 805%25($'<1(&$58QLYHUVLWpGHV$QWLOOHVHWGHOD*X\DQH&DPSXVGH)RXLOOROH %33RLQWHj3LWUH*XDGHORXSH &RUUHVSRQGLQJDXWKRU+HOHQD'¶&RWWD $EVWUDFW 7KH1LOHWLODSLDKDV DFRPSOH[VH[GHWHUPLQDWLRQV\VWHP QRW RQO\GRPLQDWHGE\D;;;< JHQHWLFV\VWHPEXWLVDOVRLQIOXHQFHGE\PLQRUJHQHWLFIDFWRUVDVZHOODVWHPSHUDWXUH6H[ UHYHUVHG;;PDOHVDQG;<IHPDOHVZHUHIRXQGDPRQJVWEUHHGHUVLQVRPHZLOGSRSXODWLRQV VXJJHVWLQJ HLWKHU LQIOXHQFHV RI WHPSHUDWXUH RU PLQRU JHQHWLF IDFWRUV RU ERWK WKHVH IDFWRUV 7HPSHUDWXUHDQGRUJHQHWLFLQIOXHQFHVRQVH[PD\EHWKHUHVXOWRIDOOHOLFYDULDWLRQVRQVH[ GLIIHUHQWLDWLQJJHQHV7KHDLPRIWKHFXUUHQWVWXG\ZDVWRLQYHVWLJDWHDOOHOLFSRO\PRUSKLVPV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK SKHQRW\SLF VH[ LQ QLQH ZLOG SRSXODWLRQV RI 1LOH WLODSLD OLYLQJ LQ GLIIHUHQW WKHUPDO UHJLPHV DQG FRPSDUH WKHP ZLWK WZR GRPHVWLFDWHG VWUDLQV WKH 0DQ]DOD VWUDLQ IRU ZKLFK JHQRW\SLF VH[ ZDV NQRZQ IRU ;; IHPDOHV ;< DQG << PDOHV DQG VH[LQYHUWHG SKHQRW\SLF PDOHV ;; PDOHV DQG WKH %RXDNp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¶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p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q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¶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p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p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s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î03%LRPHGLFDOVEXIIHU 7ULV&O.&O 1+ 62 P00J&O O RI P0 G173 P0 RI HDFK G1 73 ȝ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î03%LRPHGLFDOVEXIIHU 7ULV&O 64 .&O 1+ 62 P00J&O ORIP0G173 P0RIHDFKG173 ȝ0RI HDFKSULPHUDQG8RI7DTSRO\PHUDVH3&5FRQGLWLRQVLQYROYHGDQLQLWLDOGHQDWXULQJIRU PLQXWHVDW&IROORZHGE\F\FOHVRIDPSOLILFDWLRQFRQVLVWLQJLQDGHQDWXULQJDW& IRUVHFRQGDQQHDOLQJDW&IRUVHFRQGVDQGHORQJDWLRQIRUPLQXWHVDW&HQGLQJ ZLWKDPLQXWHHORQJDWLRQDW& $QDGGLWLRQDOGLVFULPLQDWLRQWRGHILQHWKHJHQRW\SLFVH[ZDVSHUIRUPHGXVLQJWKH;VSHFLILF DQG<VSHFLILFSULPHUFRXSOHV WDEOH DVGHVFULEHGE\6XQ HWDO 7KH3&5UHDFWLRQ ZDVSHUIRUPHGDVDERYHDQGFRQGLWLRQVVLPLODUZLWKDQDQQHDOLQJDW&IRUF\FOHV$OO 3&5SURGXFWVZHUHPLJUDWHGRQDDJDURVHJHO 5HVXOWVDQG'LVFXVVLRQ ,WLVZHOONQRZQWKDWLQ1LOHWLODSLDWKHJHQHWLFVH[GHWHUPLQDWLRQ;;;<FDQEHVZLWFKHGGXH WR KLJK WHPSHUDWXUH LQIOXHQFHV %DURLOOHU HW DO D 6H[UHYHUVHG ;; PDOHV DQG ;< IHPDOHV ZHUH IRXQG DPRQJVW EUHHGHUV LQ VRPH ZLOG SRSXODWLRQV %H]DXOW HW DO VXJJHVWLQJ HLWKHU LQIOXHQFHV RI WHPSHUDWXUH RU PLQRU JHQHWLF IDFWRUV +RZHYHU KRZ WKHVH LQIOXHQFHV RFFXU DQG KRZ IUHTXHQWO\ WKH WHPSHUDWXUH H[HUWV LWV PDVFXOLQL]LQJ HIIHFW LQ WKH ZLOGUHPDLQXQNQRZQ7HPSHUDWXUHDQGJHQHWLFLQIOXHQFHVRQVH[PD\EHWKHUHVXOWRIDOOHOLF YDULDWLRQV RQ VH[GLIIHUHQWLDWLQJ JHQHV 7KH FXUUHQW VWXG\ ZDV FDUULHG RXW LQ QLQH ZLOG SRSXODWLRQVLQRUGHUWRLQYHVWLJDWHDOOHOLFSRO\PRUSKLVPVUHODWHGWRWKHSKHQRW\SLFVH[RI1LOH WLODSLDRQWKUHHVH[GLIIHUHQWLDWLQJJHQHV F\SDDZWE DQG DPK SUHYLRXVO\IRXQGWRKDYH DOOHOLFYDULDQWVOLQNHGWRPDOHV /HH .RFKHU(VKHO HWDO :HVVHOV HWDO 7KH F\SDD DQG ZWE JHQHVDUHORFDWHGRQOLQNDJHJURXSV/* /HHDQG.RFKHU ZKLOH DPK LVORFDWHGRQ/* 6KLUDN HWDO 6WXGLHVKDYHVKRZQWKDWWKHVHWZR/*V DUHDVVRFLDWHGWRVH[ /HH HWDO &QDDQL HWDO (VKHO HWDO 7KHQLQHZLOGSRSXODWLRQVFRYHUDODUJHSRUWLRQRIWKHQDWXUDOGLVWULEXWLRQRI1LOHWLODSLDLQ $IULFD DV ZHOO DV WKH HQWLUH VSHFWUXP RI WKHUPDO UHJLPH HQFRXQWHUHG E\ WKH VSHFLHV LQ WKH ZLOG $ VHOHFWLRQ RI LQGLYLGXDOV ZHUH DQDO\VHG ZLWK FODVVHG DV SKHQRW\SLF PDOHV 6SHFLILFVH[JHQRW\SHVSURGXFHGE\FKURPRVRPHPDQLSXODWLRQ %DURLOOHUDQG-DODEHUW 6FRWW HWDO ZHUHDOVRXVHGIRUWKH0DQ]DODGRPHVWLFDWHGVWUDLQDPRQJVWZKLFKZHUH LQFOXGHG ;; PDOHV << VXSHUPDOHV DQG << IHPDOH ,QGLYLGXDOV Q ZLWK SRRU VHTXHQFHUHDGVZHUHGLVFDUGHG:HLGHQWLILHGDWRWDORI613VRIZKLFKDOOHOLFYDULDQWV ZHUHIRXQGLQWKH DPK JHQHLQWKHDURPDWDVH &\SD SURPRWHUDQGLQWKH :WE JHQH,Q 65 DGGLWLRQ RXU VWXG\ DOVR IRXQG LQVHUWLRQV DQG GHOHWLRQ YDU\LQJ LQ VL]H IRU WKH F\SDD SURPRWHUDQG DPK JHQHVRPHRIZKLFKZHUHXQLTXHWRFHUWDLQSRSXODWLRQV 613LGHQWLILHGRQWKH F\SDD SURPRWHUUHJLRQ 2XUSUHYLRXVVWXGLHVSHUIRUPHGRQWKHGRPHVWLFDWHG%RXDNpDQG0DQ]DODVWUDLQVKDYHVKRZQ WKDW WKH VH[GLIIHUHQWLDWLQJ JHQH DURPDWDVH F\SDD LV LPSOLFDWHG LQ WKH PROHFXODU PHFKDQLVPRIRYDULDQGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQ '¶&RWWD HWDO DQGWHPSHUDWXUHPDVFXOLQLVDWLRQ RI;;IHPDOHIULHVFDXVHVDGRZQUHJXODWLRQRIWKLVJHQH 3RRQODSKGHFKD HWDO 7KH SUHVHQW VWXG\ ZDV IRFXVHG RQ D ES IUDJPHQW RI WKH ¶ IODQNLQJ UHJLRQ RI WKH WLODSLD F\SDD JHQHLQZKLFKDQDOOHOLFYDULDQWZDVSUHYLRXVO\LGHQWLILHGJ*!$ZLWKPDOHV EHLQJKHWHUR]\JRWHV $* DQGIHPDOHVKRPR]\JRWHV $$ /HH .RFKHU 7KLV613 ZDVRQHRIWKHIRXUSRO\PRUSKLVPVIRXQGLQWKH F\SDD SURPRWHUUHJLRQ 7DEOH EXWZH GHWHFWHG KHUH QR SRO\PRUSKLVP DVVRFLDWHG WR WKH SKHQRW\SLF VH[ ,W ZDV KHWHUR]\JRXV &\SB*$ ZLWK D IUHTXHQF\ LQ DOO /DNH .SDQGX LQGLYLGXDOV DQG LQ DOO ILVK EHORQJLQJWRWKH(WKLRSLDQ5LIW9DOOH\/DNHVRI+RUD0HWDKDUDDQG.RNDDQGLQILVKRXW RI LQ WKH %RXDNp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¶ IODQNLQJ UHJLRQ RI F\SDD ZDVUHFHQWO\SHUIRUPHGLQWLODSLD %|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pILVK 6LPLODUO\KLJKSRO\PRUSKLVPZDVREVHUYHGRQ613:WEB ZLWK VSHFLPHQV IURP VL[ SRSXODWLRQV %RXDNp .SDQGX 0DQ]DOD &KHODED %DULQJR DQG 7XUNDQD EHLQJ KRPR]\JRXV :WEB$$ RU :WEB** ZKLOH WZR KRW VSULQJ SRSXODWLRQV %RJRULD DQG 7XUWOH ZHUH HLWKHU KRPR]\JRXV :WEB$$ RU KHWHUR]\JRXV :WEB$* 6LPLODUO\WKHWKUHH(WKLRSLDQSRSXODWLRQV 0HWDKDUD.RNDDQG+RUD ZHUH KRPR]\JRXV :WEB$$ 7KH 613V :WEB DQG :WEB ZHUH OHVV KHWHUR]\JRXV 67 WKDQ:WEBDQG:WEB+HWHUR]\JRXV613VZHUHREVHUYHGRQRQO\WKUHHSRSXODWLRQV %RXDNp .SDQGX 0DQ]DOD IRU :WEB DQG WZR 0DQ]DOD DQG %DULQJR IRU WKH :WEB 1R GHOHWLRQV DQG LQVHUWLRQV ZHUH REVHUYHG RQ WKLV JHQH /LNH F\SDD 613V REVHUYHGLQWKHZWEUHJLRQVHJUHJDWHGDFURVVSRSXODWLRQVEXWZDVQRWOLQNHGWRSKHQRW\SLF VH[ $OLQNDJHGLVHTXLOLEULXPZDVVHHQEHWZHHQ:WEB:WEB:WEBDQG:WEB IRUWKH%DULQJRSRSXODWLRQDVZHOODVWKH%RXDNp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p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p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p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³DPK\´ PDUNHUV DV GHVFULEHG LQ (VKHO HW DO ZKLFK GLVFULPLQDWHVWZREDQGVDaESVL]HEDQGSUHVHQWLQ;;IHPDOHVDQGDVHFRQGaES EDQG RQO\ SUHVHQW LQ PDOHV FDUU\LQJ WKH < FKURPRVRPH ;< DQG << LQGLYLGXDOV ,Q WKH GRPHVWLFDWHG0DQ]DODVWUDLQWKH DPK PDUNHUVLGHQWLILHGFRUUHFWO\DOORXUJHQHWLF;;IHPDOHV ;< PDOHV WKH ILYH << VXSHUPDOHV DV ZHOO DV DQ << IHPDOH )LJ ,W DOVR DOORZHG WKH LGHQWLILFDWLRQRIVH[UHYHUVHG;;PDOHVDQGDQ;<IHPDOH$;<PDOHWKDWJDYHELDVHGVH[ UDWLRVLQSURJHQ\WHVWLQJZDVLQIDFWLGHQWLILHGDVDQ;;PDOH)RUWKH%RXDNp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¶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a&DQGGRQRWXQGHUJRVLJQLILFDQWFKDQJHVDQQXDOO\VLQFHWKHVSULQJVDUH VHUYHG E\ IDXOWV DQG IUDFWXUHV WKDW DOORZ ZDWHU IURP GHHS DTXLIHUV WR ULVH WR WKH VXUIDFH 'HRFDPSR $VKOH\ HW DO 7KH SRVVLEOH SUHVHQFH RI ;; PDOHV DPRQJVW RXU GLIIHUHQWSRSXODWLRQVOLYLQJLQYDU\LQJWHPSHUDWXUHUHJLPHVLQWKHSUHVHQWVWXG\DQGWKDWRI %H]DXOW HWDO DQG%DURLOOHU HWDO D VXJJHVWVWKDWVRPHZLOGLQGLYLGXDOVZHUH VHQVLWLYH WR WKH HIIHFWV RI KLJK WHPSHUDWXUHV FDXVLQJ PDVFXOLQLVDWLRQ RI ;; IHPDOHV (QYLURQPHQWDO VH[ UHYHUVDO LV WKH PRGLILFDWLRQ RI SULPDU\ VH[ GXULQJ RQWRJHQ\ LQWR D VH[ RSSRVLWHWRWKDWFRGHGE\WKHJHQRW\SH %XOO9DOHQ]XHOD HWDO $FFRUGLQJWR %DUDV HW DO VH[ UHYHUVDO LV D FRQVHUYDWLYH SURFHVV WKDW HQDEOHV WKH VSHFLHV WR QRW SURGXFH VH[ UDWLRV WKDW FDQ MHRSDUGL]H LWV VXUYLYDO 3URJHQ\ GLIIHUHQFHV IRU WHPSHUDWXUH PDVFXOLQLVDWLRQKDYHEHHQGHWHFWHGSUHYLRXVO\ZLWKVRPHSURJHQLHVRULQGLYLGXDOVQRWEHLQJ VHQVLWLYH WR WHPSHUDWXUH %DURLOOHU HW DO %DURLOOHU HW DO D ,W LV WKHUHIRUH QRW VXUSULVLQJWKDWIRUWKHVXUYLYDORIDSRSXODWLRQOLYLQJSDUWLFXODUO\LQKRWVSULQJVERWKJHQHWLF DQGWHPSHUDWXUHLQIOXHQFHVFRH[LVWVRWKDWWKHVH[UDWLRVDUHQRWELDVHG 7KHH[LVWHQFHRIVHYHUDOVH[UHYHUVHG;<IHPDOHVLQZLOGSRSXODWLRQVGHWHFWHGLQWKHSUHVHQW VWXG\ LV UDWKHU DVWRQLVKLQJ DOWKRXJK LW FRUUHODWHV ZLWK WKH ILQGLQJ RI DQ ;< IHPDOH LQ D SUHYLRXV SURJHQ\ WHVWLQJ RI ZLOG EUHHGHUV %H]DXOW HW DO :H WKLQN WKDW WKHVH LQGLYLGXDOV PD\ UHVXOW IURP DGGLWLRQDO DXWRVRPDO JHQHWLF IDFWRUV LQIOXHQFLQJ VH[ ZKLFK ZH FDOOHGPLQRUJHQHWLFIDFWRUV 72 ,Q FRQFOXVLRQ RXU VWXG\ KDV GHWHFWHG VHYHUDO 613V LQ WKUHH VH[GLIIHUHQWLDWLQJ JHQHV F\SDD ZWE DQG DPK DPRQJVWZLOGSRSXODWLRQVOLYLQJLQGLIIHUHQWWHPSHUDWXUHUHJLPHVDV ZHOODVLQGRPHVWLFDWHGVWUDLQV6HYHUDOGHOHWLRQVDQGLQVHUWLRQVZHUHIRXQGRQ F\S DQG DPK JHQHV SDUWLFXODUO\ LQ SRSXODWLRQV OLYLQJ LQ KRW VSULQJV DERYH & FRQVWDQW WHPSHUDWXUHV NQRZQWRFDXVHPDVFXOLQL]DWLRQDQGOHDGLQJWRPDOHELDVHGVH[UDWLRV:HK\SRWKHVL]HGWKDW WKHVH GHOHWLRQV DQG LQVHUWLRQV PD\ EH UHVSRQVLEOH IRU DGDSWLQJ WKH SRSXODWLRQV DJDLQVW WKH HIIHFWVRIKLJKZDWHUWHPSHUDWXUH2XUVWXG\VKRZV613VLQWKH DPK JHQHVWURQJO\DVVRFLDWHG WRWKHSKHQRW\SLFVH[QRWDEO\LQWKH.HQ\DQ+RWVSULQJSRSXODWLRQV7KH613VDVVRFLDWHGWR VH[YDULHGGHSHQGLQJRQWKHSRSXODWLRQ,QDGGLWLRQE\XVLQJ DPK PDUNHUVZHKDYHGHWHFWHG VH[ UHYHUVHG ;; PDOHV DV ZHOO DV ;< IHPDOHV LQ DOO SRSXODWLRQV H[FHSW LQ WKH 7XUWOH KRW VSULQJ%HFDXVHQRQHRIWKHPDOHVLQWKUHH(WKLRSLDQSRSXODWLRQVFRXOGEHGLVFULPLQDWHGWKH DPK GHOHWHGIRUPLVPRVWOLNHO\QRWWKHWLODSLDPDVWHUVH[GHWHUPLQDQWEXWPD\EHLQFORVH SUR[LPLW\WRWKHVH[GHWHUPLQLQJORFXV $FNQRZOHGJHPHQWV :H H[SUHVV RXU VLQFHUH JUDWLWXGH WR &DWKHULQH 2]RXI&RVWD] 0XVHXP 1DWLRQDO G KLVWRLUH 1DWXUHOOH3DULV (ORGLH3HSH\ &,5$',175(3,' -RVHSK*DWKXD 1DWLRQDO0XVHXPVRI .HQ\D DQG )UHGHULTXH &HUTXHLUD DQG (ULFN 'HVPDUDLV 3ODWHIRUPH *pQRPLTXH (QYLURQQHPHQWDOH GX /DEH[ &HQWUH 0pGLWHUUDQpHQ (QYLURQQHPHQW %LRGLYHUVLWp IRU WKHLU WHFKQLFDO VXSSRUW GXULQJ WKH VWXG\ :H DUH DOVR JUDWHIXO WR .HQ\D :HWODQGV %LRGLYHUVLW\ 5HVHDUFK7HDP&,5$',5'DQG0$(IRUWKHLUILQDQFLDOVXSSRUW<<DQG;;PDOHVIURP WKH0DQ]DODVWUDLQZHUHSURYLGHGE\&0pODUG &()5$/LHJH8QLY 73 5HIHUHQFHV $OMDQDEL600DUWLQH],8QLYHUVDODQGUDSLGVDOWH[WUDFWLRQRIKLJKTXDOLW\JHQRPLF '1$IRU3&5EDVHGWHFKQLTXHV1XFOHLF$FLGV5HVHDUFK $VKOH\*00DLWLPD0ZRULD-0XDV\D$02ZHQ5%'ULHVH6*+RYHU9&5HQDXW5: *RPDQ0)0DWKDL6%ODWW6+6HGLPHQWDWLRQDQGUHFHQWKLVWRU\RIDIUHVKZDWHU ZHWODQGLQDVHPLDULGHQYLURQPHQW/RERL6ZDPS.HQ\D(DVW$IULFD6HGLPHQWRORJ\ ± %DUDV(-DFREV%0p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¶&RWWD +(QYLURQPHQWDQGVH[GHWHUPLQDWLRQLQIDUPHGILVK&RPS %LRFKHP3K\VLRO&7R[LFRO3KDUPDFRO %DURLOOHU-))RVWLHU$&DXW\&5RJQRQ;-DODEHUW%D6LJQLILFDQWHIIHFWVRIKLJK WHPSHUDWXUHVRQVH[UDWLRRISURJHQLHVIURP 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV ZLWKVLEOLQJVH[ UHYHUVHGPDOHVEURRGVWRFN,Q3XOOLQ569/D]DUG-/HJHQGUH0$PRQ.RWLDV -%3DXO\'B(GV7KLUG,QWHUQDWLRQDO6\PSRVLXPRQ7LODSLDLQ$TXDFXOWXUH ,&/$50&RQI3URF0DQLOD3KLOLSSLQHVSS ± %DURLOOHU-)-DODEHUW%&RQWULEXWLRQRIUHVHDUFKLQUHSURGXFWLYHSK\VLRORJ\WRWKH FXOWXUHRIWLODSLDV $TXDW/LYLQJ5HVRXU ± %DURLOOHU-)1DND\DPD,)RUHVWL)&KRXUURXW'E6H[GHWHUPLQDWLRQVWXGLHVLQWZR VSHFLHVRIWHOHRVWILVK 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV DQG /HSRULQXVHORQJDWXV =RRO6WXG ± %HDUGPRUH-$0DLU*&/HZLV5,0RQRVH[PDOHSURGXFWLRQLQILQILVKDVH[HPSOLILHG E\WLODSLDDSSOLFDWLRQVSUREOHPVDQGSURVSHFWV $TXDFXOWXUH ± %HONKLU.%RUVD3&KLNKL/5DXIDVWH1%RQKRPPH)*(1(7,;ORJLFLHOVRXV :LQGRZV70SRXUODJpQpWLTXHGHVSRSXODWLRQV/DERUDWRLUH*pQRPH3RSXODWLRQV ,QWHUDFWLRQV&1568058QLYHUVLWpGH0RQWSHOOLHU,,0RQWSHOOLHU )UDQFH 74 %H]DXOW(%DODUHVTXH37RJX\HQL$)HUPRQ<$UDNL+%DURLOOHU-)5RJQRQ; 6SDWLDODQGWHPSRUDOYDULDWLRQLQSRSXODWLRQJHQHWLFVWUXFWXUHRIZLOG1LOHWLODSLD 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV DFURVV$IULFD%0&*HQHW %H]DXOW(&ORWD)'HULYD]0&KHYDVVXV%%DURLOOHU-)6H[GHWHUPLQDWLRQDQG WHPSHUDWXUHLQGXFHGVH[GLIIHUHQWLDWLRQLQWKUHHQDWXUDOSRSXODWLRQVRI1LOHWLODSLD 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV DGDSWHGWRH[WUHPHWHPSHUDWXUHFRQGLWLRQV $TXDFXOWXUH 6 ±6 %H]DXOW(2]RXI&RVWD]&' +RQW$9ROII-15RJQRQ;%DURLOOHU-)6WUXFWXUHDQG HYROXWLRQRISXUHDQGK\EULGJHQRPHVRI7LODSLD&KURPRVRP5HV VXSSO %|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± &QDDQL$/HH%<=LOEHUPDQ12]RXI&RVWD]&+XODWD*5RQ0' +RQW$%DURLOOHU-) ' &RWWD+3HQPDQ'-7RPDVLQR(&RXWDQFHDX-33HSH\(6KLUDN$.RFKHU7' *HQHWLFVRIVH[GHWHUPLQDWLRQLQWLODSLLQHVSHFLHV6H['HY &QDDQL$7LQPDQ6$YLGDU<5RQ0+XODWD*'HWHFWLRQRIDFKURPRVRPDOUHJLRQ ZLWKWZRTXDQWLWDWLYHWUDLWORFLDIIHFWLQJFROGWROHUDQFHDQGILVKVL]HLQDQ)WLODSLD K\EULG$TXDFXOWXUH ± '¶&RWWD+)RVWLHU$*XLJKHQ< *RYRURXQ0%DURLOOHU-)$URPDWDVHSOD\VDNH\ UROHQRUPDODQGWHPSHUDWXUHLQGXFHGVH[GLIIHUHQWLDWLRQRIWLODSLD 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV 0ROHFXODU5HSURGXFWLRQDQG'HYHORSPHQW '¶&RWWD+%DURLOOHU-)6ROHU/%RFV6&RQWH0'¶+RQ W$2]RXI&.RFKHU7 *HQRPLFFKDUDFWHULVDWLRQRI&KU/*DQDQFLHQWVH[FKURPRVRPHLQWKHFLFKOLGWLODSLD" &RQIpUHQFHV-DFTXHV0RQRG5RVFRII)UDQFH3RVWHU 75 'HRFDPSR'06HGLPHQWDU\SURFHVVHVDQGOLWKRIDFLHVLQODNHPDUJLQJURXQGZDWHUIHG ZHWODQGVLQ(DVW$IULFD,Q$VKOH\*05HQDXW5:HGLWRUV6HGLPHQWDWLRQLQ &RQWLQHQWDO5LIWVYRO6SHFLDO3XEOLFDWLRQ6(307XOVD2.SS ±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s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¶&RWWD+%DURLOOHU-)DQG.RFKHU7' *HQHWLFDQG3K\VLFDO0DSSLQJRI6H[/LQNHG$)/30DUNHUVLQ1LOH7LODSLD 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV 0DU%LRWHFKQRO /HH%<+XODWD*DQG.RFKHU7'7ZRXQOLQNHGORFLFRQWUROOLQJWKHVH[RIEOXH WLODSLD 2UHRFKURPLVDXUHXV +HUHGLW\ ± /HH%<.RFKHU7'([FOXVLRQRI:LOPVWXPRU :7 DQGRYDULDQF\WRFKURPH3 DURPDWDVH &<3$ DVFDQGLGDWHVIRUVH[GHWHUPLQDWLRQJHQHVLQ1LOHWLODSLD 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV $QLP*HQHW ± /HH%<3HQPDQ'-DQG.RFKHU7',GHQWLILFDWLRQRIDVH[GHWHUPLQLQJUHJLRQLQ1LOH WLODSLD 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV XVLQJEXONHGVHJUHJDQWDQDO\VLV$QLP*HQHW ± 0DLU*&6FRWW$*3HQPDQ'-%HDUGPRUH-$DQG6NLELQVNL'2(6H[ GHWHUPLQDWLRQLQWKHJHQXV2UHRFKURPLV6H[UHYHUVDOJ\QRJHQHVLVDQGWULSORLG\LQ2 QLORWLFXV / 7KHRU$SSO*HQHW 0DUWLQV&2OLYHLUD&:DVNR$3:ULJKW-03K\VLFDOPDSSLQJRIWKH1LOHWLODSLD 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV JHQRPHE\IOXRUHVFHQWLQVLWXK\EULGL]DWLRQRIUHSHWLWLYH'1$V WRPHWDSKDVHFKURPRVRPHVDUHYLHZ$TXDFXOWXUH ± 0DWVXGD01DJDKDPD<6KLQRPL\D$HWDO FRDXWKRUV '0<LVD<VSHFLILF '0GRPDLQJHQHUHTXLUHGIRUPDOHGHYHORSPHQWLQWKHPHGDNDILVK 1DWXUH ± 0\RVKR72WDNH+0DVX\DPD+0DWVXGD0.XURNL<)XML\DPD$1DUXVH. +DPDJXFKL66DNDL]XPL07UDFLQJWKHHPHUJHQFHRIDQRYHOVH[GHWHUPLQLQJ JHQHLQPHGDND 2U\]LDVOX]RQHQVLV *HQHWLFV ± 1DQGD,.RQGR0+RUQXQJ8HWDO FRDXWKRUV $GXSOLFDWHGFRS\RI'057LQ WKHVH[GHWHUPLQLQJUHJLRQRIWKH<FKURPRVRPHRIWKHPHGDND 2U\]LDVODWLSHV 3URF 1DWO$FDG6FL86$ ± 1GLZD&71\QJL'$JQqVH-)$QLPSRUWDQWQDWXUDOJHQHWLFUHVRXUFHRI 2UHRFKURPLV QLORWLFXV /LQQDHXV WKUHDWHQHGE\DTXDFXOWXUHDFWLYLWLHVLQ/RERLGUDLQDJH.HQ\D 3OR621( H 1\LQJL':DQG$JQHVHV-)3K\ORJHRJUDSK\RIWKH1LOH7LODSLDLQ$IULFD/DPEHUW $FDGHPLF3XEOLVKHUV 1\LQJL''H9RV/$PDQ5$JQqVH-)*HQHWLFFKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQRIDQXQNQRZQDQG HQGDQJHUHGQDWLYHSRSXODWLRQRIWKH1LOHWLODSLD 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV /LQQDHXV &LFKOLGDH7HOHRVWHL LQWKH/RERL6ZDPS .HQ\D $TXDFXOWXUH 3DODLRNRVWDV&,%HNDHUW0.KDQ0*7DJJDUW-%*KDUEL.0F$QGUHZ%-3HQPDQ'- 0DSSLQJDQGYDOLGDWLRQRIWKHPDMRUVH[GHWHUPLQLQJUHJLRQLQ1LOHWLODSLD 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV/ 8VLQJ5$'VHTXHQFLQJ 3/R62QH H 77 3RRQODSKGHFKD63HSH\(+XDQJ6+&DQRQQH06ROHU/0RUWDML60RUDQG63IHQQLJ) 0pODUG&%DURLOOHU-)(OHYDWHGDPKJHQHH[SUHVVLRQLQWKHEUDLQRIPDOHWLODSLD 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV GXULQJWHVWLVGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQ6H[XDO'HYHORSPHQW 3RRQODSKGHFKD63HSH\(&DQRQQH0GH9HUGDO+%DURLOOHUHWDO7HPSHUDWXUH LQGXFHGPDVFXOLQLVDWLRQLQWKH1LOHWLODSLDFDXVHVUDSLGXSUHJXODWLRQRIERWKGPUWDQG DPKH[SUHVVLRQV*HQ&RPS(QGRFULQRO 5RXVVHW) *HQHSRS¶DFRPSOHWHUH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIWKHJHQHSRSVRIWZDUHIRU :LQGRZVDQG/LQX[0ROHFXODU(FRORJ\5HVRXUFHV ± 6FRWW$*3HQPDQ'-%HDUGPRUH-$6NLELQVNL'2) 7KHµ<<¶VXSHUPDOHLQ 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV B/DQGLWVSRWHQWLDOLQDTXDFXOWXUH$TXDFXOWXUH ± 6KLUDN$6HURXVVL(&QDDQL$+RZH$('RPRNKRYVN\5=LOEHUPDQ1.RFKHU7' +XODWD*5RQ0$0+DQG'057JHQHVPDSWRWLODSLD 2UHRFKURPLVVSS OLQNDJHJURXSZLWKLQTXDQWLWDWLYHWUDLWORFXVUHJLRQVIRUVH[GHWHUPLQDWLRQ*HQHWLFV ± 6XQ<-LDQJ'=HQJ6+X& 78 7DEOHV Water ϮϳʹϮϳΣ ϭϳʹϮϲΣ ϮϳʹϯϮΣ ϮϱʹϮϳΣ ϯϮʹϯϵΣ ϮϳʹϯϮΣ temperature N° N° of males 54 6 4 °C 24.5 - 22 4 6 N° N° of females Ethiopia Ethiopia Lake Turkana Turkana Lake SpringHotel Bogoria Lake Kenya Kenya 10 10 10 7 °C 36 Lake MetaharaLake Ethiopia Basin Localisation Country Volta + Nile Volta+ BouakeStation Coast Ivory 6 7 Nilotic Nile Manzala Lake Eygypt 11 17-25.7 20.5 NiloticNilotic Rift-Valley Rift-Valley NiloticNilotic Rift-ValleyNilotic Baringo Lake Rift-Valley Rift-ValleyChelaba Spring TurtleSpring Kenya Kenya 10 Kenya 10 10 10 10 10°C 36 °C 36 + Nilotic + Regions Ichthyo. EthiopianEthiopianEthiopian Awash AwashHora Lake Awash Koka Lake Sudano-Sahelian VoltaVolta Lake Ghana 11 10 Sudano-Sahelian Oreochromis niloticus Oreochromis pledof O. n.O.niloticus O. n.O.niloticus O. n.O.vulcani n.O.loboi O. n.O.niloticus n.O.baringoensis n.O.loboi n.O.loboi n.O.cancellatus n.O.cancellatus n.O.filoa Wild Wild Wild Wild Wild Wild Wild Wild Wild Characteristics Subspecies DomesticatedStrain DomesticatedStrain Strain Population or Lake Turkana Lake Bogoria Table 1: Information on the populations and strains sam strains and populations the on Information 1: Table Kpandu Bouake Manzala Baringo Lake Spring Chelaba Spring Turtle Hora Lake Koka Lake Metahara 79 Alignment LOC100701078 ENSONIG00000005545 ENSONIG00000000155 Scaffold GL831420.1 Scaffold GL831234.1 Mod. EF512167 ENSONIT0000000602 AF472620 EF026080 EF512167 KC710223 KC710224 HG518784 ES 814 bp 814 57°C 56°Cbp 1223 58°Cbp 1073 57°Cbp 1081 60°Cbp 988 58°Cbp/ 1047 60°Cbp 925 60°Cbp 293 & ES (5'-3') Tm Size GenBank AACCTGTACCAAATGGCATC GATGGGACAGTTTGAAGTAT AAATCTGGAATCAATGTAATGAAGA GCAGAGATCAGATCCATGAGAA CCCGTTTGCTGTCTGATTTT GGATGGCAACCTCGTTTTAC ACAAACCCTGTGCTGCTCTT GTGGGAGCTGTGGAGTTGAT CTGCAAACCTCCTTCCTTTG CGACAAATTCACGCTAAGCA TGGCCACGGATTCTCTAAAC GCATCTGGCTTGATGGAGAT CGGTCCCAGTGACCTATGAG AAGTACACGTGGTGTATTGTAATTGA CTGGTTTGCAATAGTTAGGGTGCT CAGAAATGTAGACGCCCAGGTATC TAAATTAATGACATTTCAGTTATG TTACAGCAGCACCCAGAGTCAT SCAR-5F-X Wt1b-F938 Wt1b-R1836 cyp19a1a-F1872 cyp19a1a-R2371 Amh-R1308 Amh-F885 Amh-R1958 Amh-F1802 Amh-R2883 Amh-R3328 Amh-R3490 SCAR-5R SCAR-5R-Y SCAR-5F ate gene or marker Exon 5-Exon 7 5-Exon Exon Exon 1-Intron 3 1-Intron Exon Amh-F85 6 3-Exon Exon 6 6-Intron Exon 76-Exon Intron Amh-F2340 76-Exon Intron Amh-F2443 Promoter wt1b X-specific cyp19a1a amh amhy Y-specific Scaffold Gene/ Marker Region Primers Used Primer Sequence scaffold17 scaffold101 scaffold101 LG1 LG23 Group Linkage Table Primers2: used for SNP search for each candid 80 °Ind. gene cyp19a1a T 68.98 187 T 28.26 184 G 4.30 186 A 61.50 187 CT 2.14 187 CT 1.08 184 A/G 18.28 186 d of the aromatase gonadal gonadal aromatase the of d 2308 Promoter none C 28.88 187 2175 Promoter none A 77.42 186 2124 Promoter none G 38.50 187 2016 Promoter none C 70.65 184 cyp19a1a cyp19a1a cyp19a1a cyp19a1a Cyp_2308 Cyp_2175 Cyp_2124 Cyp_2016 SNP Name SNP Gene Position Feature Consequencetype SNP Frequency N Table 3: SNPs identified in the promoter region studie region identified SNPs promoter the in 3: Table 81 SONIG00000000155 /Strain Frequency N°Ind. HoraKoka 100 100 11/11 8/8 Chelaba 15 6/20 A to Tto A Chelaba 30 3/20 promoter region studied vs ref. Genbank AF472620 & EN & AF472620 Genbank ref. vs studied region promoter cyp19a1a 1988 promoter G Metahara 100 10/10 1992 promoter A Bogoria 25 5/20 2036-2037 promoter GTPOP. ALL 100 188 cyp19a1a cyp19a1a cyp19a1a Cyp_1988 Cyp_1993 SNP Name SNP Gene Position Feature Deletion change Nt Population Cyp_2036-2037 Table 4: Nucleotide deletions found in the indeletions Nucleotide found 4: Table 82 Table 5: Pairwise linkage disequilibrium detected for the region of the cyp19a1a gene promoter Linkage Allele pair Population/strain R2 disequilibrium (%) Cyp_2016-Cyp_2124 Bogoria 22 0.22 Cyp_2016-Cyp_2175 Baringo 40 0.4 Turtle 12 0.12 Cyp_2016-Cyp_2308 Baringo 2 0.02 Cyp_2016-Cyp_1993 Bogoria 50 0.5 Chelaba 46 0.46 Cyp_2124-Cyp_2175 Bogoria 14 0.14 Chelaba 2 0.02 Cyp_2124-Cyp_2308 Bogoria 10 0.1 Chelaba 6 0.06 Cyp_2124-Cyp_1993 Bogoria 8 0.08 Chelaba 46 0.46 Cyp_2175-Cyp_2308 Baringo 16 0.16 Turtle 10 0.1 Cyp_2175-Cyp_1993 Bogoria 32 0.32 Chelaba 64 0.64 Cyp_2308-Cyp_1993 Bogoria 28 0.28 Chelaba 56 0.56 83 1.62 5.91 5.91 1.08 53.5528.41 18.04 183 79.4618.92 185 89.1910.81 87.10 185 186 T G G G CT CT AG AG NON Codonacid Amino type SNP Frequency N°Ind. Consequence gene 398 12776 Intron none A 464466 1343649 13456 Intron 1528684 none6 Intron 6 Exon5/Exon non-synon. none AGC/AGT 1563 S6 Exon C A C wt1b wt1b wt1b wt1b wt1b wt1b wt1b_398 wt1b_464 wt1b_466 wt1b_649 wt1b_684 SNP Name SNP Generef.* Position gene** Position Feature * Position * withEF026080 respectto Position with** LOC100701078 respectto Table 6: SNPs identified SNPs the in 6: Table 84 Table 7: Pairwise linkage disequilibrium detected for the wt1b gene gene promoter Linkage Allele pair Population/strain R2 disequilibrium (%) Wt1b_398-Wt1b_652 Baringo 8 0.8 Wt1b_398-Wt1b_464 Chelaba 6 0.6 Baringo 100 1 Turtle 100 1 Bouake 100 1 Wt1b_398-Wt1b_466 Bouake 10 0.1 Wt1b_398-Wt1b_649 Baringo 8 0.8 Wt1b_652-Wt1b_464 Baringo 100 1 Wt1b_652-Wt1b_466 Turkana 6 0.6 Wt1b_464-Wt1b_466 Bouake 100 1 Kpandu 10 0.1 Wt1b_464-Wt1b_649 Baringo 100 1 85 Table 8: SNPs identified in the amh gene SNP Name Gene Position Feature Consequence Codon Amino acid SNP type Frequency N°Ind. amh_202 amh 202 Exon 1 upstream A 74.85 163 G 15.34 AG 9.81 amh_264 amh 264 Exon 1 upstream A 87.58 177 G 6.21 amh_280 amh 280 Exon 1 upstream C 87.36 174 T 4.6 CT 8.04 amh_597 amh 597 Exon 2 synonmous GAG/GAT E/D G 74.29 175 T 18.86 GT 6.86 amh_611 amh 611 Exon 2 synonmous AAC/AGC/ N/S/ A 18.97 175 ACC/ATC T/I G 81.03 C 51.43 175 T 32.57 CT 16.00 amh_754 amh 754 Intron 2 C 51.43 175 T 32.57 CT 16.00 amh_875 amh 875 Exon 3 non-synon. CCA/CCT P A 66.67 141 T 33.33 amh_916 amh 916 Exon 3 synonmous AAT/AGT N/S A 66.67 132 G 33.33 amh_1996 amh 1996 Exon 6 non-synon. AGC/AGT S C 81.32 182 T 18.68 amh_2005 amh 2005 Exon 6 non-synon. TCC/TCT S C 86.74 181 T 6.08 CT 7.18 amh_2127 amh 2127 Exon 6 synonmous CTG/CCG L/P C 74.43 176 T 6.25 CT 19.32 amh_2128 amh 2128 Exon 6 non-synon. CCG/CCA P A 22.29 175 G 72.00 AG 1.71 T 4.00 amh_2245 amh 2245 Intron 6 A/T 68.13 91 T 31.87 amh_2282 amh 2282 Intron 6 G 60.92 174 T 39.08 amh_2486 amh 2487 Intron 6 C 78.12 192 T 12.50 CT 9.38 amh_2509 amh 2509 Intron 6 A 68.62 188 C 25.53 AC 2.85 amh_2586 amh 2586 Intron 6 C 75.42 179 G 23.46 CG 1.12 amh_2618 amh 2618 Intron 6 A 14.29 182 G 81.87 AG 3.84 amh_2643 amh 2643 Intron 6 A 8.99 178 G 76.40 AG 14.61 amh_2655 amh 2655 Intron 6 A 16.11 180 T 80.00 AT 3.89 86 Table 9: Nucleotide Insertions vs ref. Scaffold GL831234.1 and Mod. EF512167 SNP Name Gene Position Feature Deletion Insertion Population/Strain Frequency N°Ind. amh_2860 amh 2860 Intron 6 G Bouake 100.0 13/13 Kpandu 100.0 21/21 Manzala 100.0 28/28 Hora 100.0 10/10 Koka 100.0 11/11 amh_2867 amh 2867 Intron 6 A ALL POP. 8/8 amh_2871 amh 2871 Intron 6 C Bouake 100.0 13/13 Kpandu 100.0 21/21 Manzala 100.0 28/28 Metahara 100.0 10/10 Hora 100.0 11/11 Koka 100.0 8/8 amh_2898 amh 2898 Intron 6 T Bouake 100.0 13/13 Kpandu 100.0 21/21 Manzala 100.0 28/28 Metahara 100.0 10/10 Hora 100.0 11/11 Koka 100.0 8/8 amh_2909 amh 2909 Intron 6 C Bouake 100.0 13/13 Kpandu 100.0 21/21 Manzala 100.0 28/28 Metahara 100.0 10/10 Hora 100.0 11/11 Koka 100.0 8/8 Turkana 100.0 17/17 Bogoria 60.0 12/20 Chelaba 45.0 9/20 Turtle 100.0 15/15 Baringo 95.0 19/20 amh_2934 amh 2934 Intron 6 T ALL POP. 100.0 192 amh 2677 to Intron 6 17 nt Bogoria 40.0 8/20 2694 Chelaba 55.0 11/20 Turtle 25.0 5/20 Baringo 5.0 1/20 amh 2895 to Intron 6 18 nt Bogoria 40.0 8/20 2914 Chelaba 55.0 11/20 Turtle 25.0 5/20 Baringo 5.0 1/20 87 Table 10: Chi-square test results for the deviation of sex-linked SNP in females and males from the HWE. Bogoria Chelaba Turtle Lake Lake SNP Name SNP Type Phenotype Item Spring Spring Spring Baringo Turkana Amh_597 T Females X2 8.2974 7.4370 10.796 6.8075 3.5451 P 0.0028 0.0316 0.0001 0.0001 0.1048 G Males X2 6.5778 4.3571 9.1000 7.6095 - P 0.0546 0.1035 0.0048 0.0001 - Amh_611 G Females X2 11.962 9.6103 - 10.936 13.888 P 0.0008 0.0001 - 0.0001 0.0001 A Males X2 9.5093 5.9932 - 2.6037 - P 0.0001 0.0034 - 0.5941 - Amh_754 C Female X2 2.1173 9.4780 2.5568 4.2743 - P 0.2985 0.0018 0.1734 0.1180 - T/C Males X2 3.3812 - 6.5714 - P 0.1645 - 0.0001 - Amh_2586 C Female X2 3.2145 7.4370 6.1276 6.5470 7.2193 P 0.1618 0.0301 0.0214 0.0508 0.0001 G Males X2 4.6803 5.9943 8.7575 5.3466 8.6480 P 0.0703 0.0701 0.0040 0.0800 0.0001 Amh_2618 A Female X2 3.2399 6.1864 8.6464 6.9242 - P 0.2683 0.0636 0.0104 0.0001 - G Males X2 3.1738 - 8.6464 - - P 0.1773 - 0.0096 -- Amh_2643 G Female X2 - 2.3331 2.5076 3.0096 16.009 P - 0.3209 0.2716 0.0682 0.0001 A Males X2 - - 5.1361 4.9882 - P-- 0.0084 0.0001 - Amh_2655 A Female X2 3.1644 7.3418 5.5800 6.9327 - P 0.1700 0.0234 0.0760 0.0475 - T Males X2 2.6479 4.9155 5.5800 - - P 0.2591 0.0246 0.0740 - - Amh_2668 A Female X2 - 2.7522 7.5030 1.9226 6.0103 P - 0.2309 0.0290 0.4274 0.0495 C Males X2 1.7287 - 3.9115 3.0720 - P 0.5569 - 0.1639 0.1557 - Amh_2807 T Female X2 7.8671 6.7877 6.3502 1.1015 - P 0.0001 0.0199 0.0350 0.6177 - C Males X2 5.7147 6.2877 10.115 5.9863 - P 0.0680 0.0103 0.0001 0.0836 - Amh_2486 C Female X2 - - - 7.9071 - P--- 0.0001 - T Males X2 5.7193 4.8331 2.7264 2.6300 - P 0.1060 0.1142 0.3524 0.6187 - Amh_2509 A Female X2 8.8034 7.7724 5.5015 5.1160 - P 0.0001 0.0029 0.0232 0.0860 - C Males X2 5.9466 5.5909 6.3127 - 5.4925 P 0.0275 0.0294 0.0182 - 0.0139 X2= chi-square test value, BOLD indicates population showing significant differences in both males and females. P= significance difference at 0.05 P values could not be calculated in all the populations due to their sums being zero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oRLV $JQqVH .HQ\D:HWODQGV%LRGLYHUVLW\5HVHDUFK7HDP1DWLRQDO0XVHXPVRI.HQ\D32%R[1DLUREL .HQ\D ,FKWK\RORJ\6HFWLRQ1DWLRQDO0XVHXPVRI.HQ\D32%R[1DLUREL.HQ\D 'pSDUWHPHQW)RUPH805,5'&156,QVWLWXWGHV6FLHQFHGHO¶(Y ROXWLRQ8QLYHUVLWpGH0RQWSHOOLHU 0RQWSHOOLHU)UDQFH 'pSDUWHPHQW&RQVHUYDWLRQHW'RPHVWLFDWLRQ805,5'&156,QVWLWXWGHV6FLHQFHGHO¶(YROXWLRQ8QLYHUVLWp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¶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±PJO DQG VOLJKW DFLGLW\S+ ± $VKOH\ HW DO 7KHVSULQJV GUDLQ LQWR /RERL VZDPS RI DERXW .P ZKLFK LV FRYHUHG E\ GHQVH YHJHWDWLRQ RI 7\SKD GRPLQJHQVLV DQG &\SHUXV SDS\UXV $VWKHZDWHUH[LWVWKHVZDPSLWLVSRRUO\DHUDWHG 'LVVROYHG2[\JHQ '2 PJO DQGKDV DKLJKHUS+ ± $VKOH\ HWDO &RPSDUDWLYHO\&URFRGLOH /DNHLVDFUDWHUIRUPHG,VODQGODNHZLWKLQWKH/DNH7XUNDQD,WLVFKDUDFWHULVHGE\UHODWLYHO\ KLJKHUZDWHUS+ DQGDOPRVWWKUHHWLPHVKLJKHUVDOLQLW\ FRQGXFWLYLW\6FP WKDQ /DNH7XUNDQDZKLFKKDVS+DQGDFRQGXFWLYLW\RIDQG6FPUHVSHFWLYHO\ $YHU\ /DNH %DULQJRD IUHVK ZDWHU /DNHORFDWHGDERXW .PIURP WKH /RERL VZDPS KDV '2FRQFHQWUDWLRQUDQJLQJIURPPJ/WHPSHUDWXUHUDQJHRI&S+a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a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q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qVH-)$GpSR*RXUpQH%$EEDQ(.)HUPRQ< *HQHWLFGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQDPRQJ QDWXUDOSRSXODWLRQVRIWKH1LOHWLODSLD 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV 7HOHRVWHL&LFKOLGDH +HUHGLW\ $VKOH\*00DLWLPD0-0XDV\D$02ZHQ5%'ULHVH6*+RYHU9&5HQDXW5: *RPDQ0)0DWKDL6%ODWW6+ 6HGLPHQWDWLRQDQGUHFHQWKLVWRU\RIDIUHVKZDWHU ZHWODQGLQDVHPLDULGHQYLURQPHQW/RERL6ZDPS.HQ\D(DVW$IULFD 6HGLPHQWRORJ\ $WNLQVRQ' (IIHFWVRIWHPSHUDWXUHRQWKHVL]HRIDTXDWLFHFWRWKHUPV([FHSWLRQVWRWKH JHQHUDOUXOH -7KHUP %LRO $YHOOD0%HUKDXOW-%RUQDQFLQ0 6DOLQLW\WROHUDQFHRIWZRWURSLFDOILVKHV 2UHRFKURPLVDXUHXV DQG 2QLORWLFXV ,%LRFKHPLFDODQGPRUSKRORJLFDOFKDQJHVLQWKHJLOO HSLWKHOLXP -RXUQDORI)LVK%LRORJ\ ± $YHU\6 +\GURORJLFDOLPSDFWVRI(WKLRSLDV2PREDVLQRQ.HQ\D¶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± )DUPHU*-%HDPLVK):+ 2[\JHQFRQVXPSWLRQRI 7LODSLDQLORWLFD LQUHODWLRQWR VZLPPLQJVSHHGDQGVDOLQLW\ =)LVK5H[%G&DQDGD ± )U\HU*,VOHV7' 7KH&LFKOLG)LVKHVRIWKH*UHDW/DNHVRI$IULFD (GLQEXUJK2OLYHU DQG%R\G )XMLPXUD.2NDGD1 6KDSLQJRIWKHORZHUMDZERQHGXULQJJURZWKRI1LOHWLODSLD 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV DQG/DNH9LFWRULDFLFKOLG +DSORFKURPLVFKLORWHV $JHRPHWULF PRUSKRPHWULFDSSURDFK 'HYHORS*URZWK'LIIHU *DJQDLUH3$1RUPDQGHDX(3DYH\6$%HUQDWFKH]/ 0DSSLQJSKHQRW\SLF H[SUHVVLRQDQGWUDQVPLVVLRQUDWLRGLVWRUWLRQ47/XVLQJ5$'PDUNHUVLQWKH/DNH :KLWHILVK &RUHJRQXVFOXSHDIRUPLV 0ROHFXODU(FRORJ\ *HRUJDNRSRXORX(6IDNLDQDNLV'*.RXWWRXNL6'LYDQDFK3.HQWRXUL0 .RXPRXQGRXURV* 7KHLQIOXHQFHRIWHPSHUDWXUHGXULQJHDUO\OLIHRQSKHQRW\SLF H[SUHVVLRQDWODWHURQWRJHQHWLFVWDJHVLQVHDEDVV -)LVK%LRO *UDPPHU*/6ODFN:73HWHUVRQ06'XJR0$ 1LOHWLODSLD 2UHRFKURPLV QLORWLFXV /LQQDHXV HVWDEOLVKPHQWLQWHPSHUDWH0LVVLVVLSSL86$PXOWL\HDU VXUYLYDOFRQILUPHGE\RWROLWKDJHV $TXDWLF,QYDVLRQV ± *UDQW35*UDQW%50DUNHUW-$.HOOHU/)3HWUHQ. &RQYHUJHQWHYROXWLRQRI 'DUZLQ¶V)LQFKHVFDXVHGE\L QWURJUHVVLYHK\EULGL]DWLRQDQGVHOHFWLRQ (YROXWLRQ ±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± 0DQWHO1 7KHGHWHFWLRQRIGLVHDVHFOXVWHULQJDQGDJHQHUDOL]HGUHJUHVVLRQDSSURDFK &DQFHU5HVHDUFK ± 0H\HU$.RFKHU7'%DVDVLEZDNL3:LOVRQ$& 0RQRSK\OHWLFRULJLQRI/DNH 9LFWRULDFLFKOLGILVKHVVXJJHVWHGE\PLWRFKRQGULDO'1$VHTXHQFHV 1DWXUH 1GLZD&71\LQJL'$JQq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± 5RKOI)- WSV'LJGLJLWL]HODQGPDUNVDQGRXWOLQHVYHUVLRQ 'HSDUWPHQWRI (FRORJ\DQG(YROXWLRQ6WDWH8QLYHUVLW\RI1HZ 6FKRILHOG3-3HWHUVRQ06/RZH05%URZQ3HWHUVRQ1-6ODFN:7 6XUYLYDO JURZWKDQGUHSURGXFWLRQRIQRQLQGLJHQRXV1LOHWLODSLD 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV /LQQDHXV ,3K\VLRORJLFDOFDSDELOLWLHVWRYDULRXVWHPSHUDWXUHVDQGVDOLQLWLHV 0DU)UHVKZ 5HV ± 6HHKDXVHQ2 $IULFDQFLFKOLGILVKDPRGHOV\VWHPLQDGDSWLYHUDGLDWLRQUHVHDUFK 3URF 56RF %±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´ %0& (YROXWLRQDU\%LRORJ\ GRL 7UHZDYDV( 7LODSLLQHILVKHVRIWKHJHQHUD 6DURWKHURGRQ 2UHRFKURPLV DQG'DQDNLOLD %ULWLVK0XVHXP 1DWXUDO+LVWRU\ /RQGRQ3S :LNHOVNL07KRP& 0DULQHLJXDQDVVKULQNWRVXUYLYH(O 1LxR 1DWXUH ±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¶¶¶1¶¶¶( +RWVSULQJ &KHODED6SULQJ ¶¶¶1¶¶¶( +RWVSULQJ 7XUWOH6SULQJ ¶¶¶1¶¶¶( +RWVSULQJ &URFRGLOH/DNH ¶¶¶1¶¶¶( 6DOLQH /DNH7XUNDQD ¶¶¶1¶¶¶( 6DOLQH /DNH%DULQJR ¶¶¶1¶¶¶( 1RUPDO /DNH9LFWRULD ¶¶¶1¶¶¶( 1RUPDO 120 7DEOH5HVXOWVRI0XOWL9DULDWH$QDO\VLVRI&RYDULDQFH 0$1&29$ SHUIRUPHG RQERG\VKDSHFRQVLGHULQJDOOWKHVDPSOHV )DFWRU GI 3LOODL DSSUR[) QXPGI GHQGI 3YDOXH 6L]H +DELWDW +DELWDW6L]H +DELWDW/RFDOLW\ +DELWDW/RFDOLW\6L]H 121 7DEOH/LQHDU'LVFULPLQDQW$QDO\VLV /'$ DVVLJQPHQWRILQGLYLGXDOVWRGLIIHUHQW ORFDOLWLHVSHUFHQWDJHVRIDVVLJQDWLRQDUHLQEUDFNHWV 2ULJLQRIWKHILVK )DOVHDVVLJQDWLRQ /DNH%RJRULD+RWHO6SULQJ &KHODED6SULQJ /DNH%DULQJR 7XUWOH6SULQJ &KHODED6SULQJ %RJRULD6SULQJ 7XUWOH6SULQJ 7XUWOH6SULQJ &KHODED6SULQJ &URFRGLOH/DNH /DNH%DULQJR /DNH%DULQJR %RJRULD6SULQJ /DNH7XUNDQD &URFRGLOH/DNH &URFRGLOH/DNH 7XUWOH6SULQJ /DNH7XUNDQD /DNH%DULQJR /DNH9LFWRULD /DNH%DULQJR 122 )LJXUHV )LJXUH0DSVKRZLQJWKHORFDWLRQRIDOOWKHVHYHQQDWXUDOSRSXODWLRQVRI2QLORWLFXV /DNH7XUNDQDDW/DNH7XUNDQDGUDLQDJHV\VWHP&URFRGLOH/DNHLQWKH&HQWUDO,VODQG RI/DNH7XUNDQD/DNH%DULQJRDW/DNH%DULQJRGUDLQDJHV\VWHP7XUWOH6SULQJ &KHODED6SULQJDQG%RJRULD+RWHO6SULQJLQWKH/RERL6ZDPSDQG/DNH9LFWRULDDW/ 9LFWRULDGUDLQDJHV\VWHP 123 )LJXUH 3RVLWLRQRIGLIIHUHQWODQGPDUNV XVHGLQWKHVWXG\ DQWHULRUWLS RIWKH VQRXWZLWKPRXWKFORVHG FHQWUHRIWKHH\H DQWHULRUDQGSRVWHULRULQVHUWLRQV RIWKHGRUVDOILQ GRUVDORULJLQRIFDXGDOILQ SRLQWKDOIZD\ EHWZHHQGRUVDODQG YHQWUDO RULJLQ RI FDXGDO ILQ YHQWUDO RULJLQ RI FDXGDO ILQ SRVWHULRU LQVHUWLRQ RI DQDOILQ DQWHULRURULJLQRIDQDOILQ DQWHULRURULJLQRISHOYLFILQ MXQFWXUHRI WKHYHQWUDO HGJHRIRSHUFXOXPZLWKWKHYHQWUDORXWOLQH PRVWSRVWHULRUHQGRIWKH PRXWK DQWHULRURULJLQRISHFWRUDOILQDQG PRVWSRVWHULRUHQGRIRSHUFXOXP 124 )LJXUH6L]HGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHILVKVDPSOHVFROOHFWHGIURPWKHVHYHQORFDOLWLHV 125 )LJXUH'LIIHUHQWLDWLRQRIWKHVHYHQSRSXODWLRQVRI1LOHWLODSLDEDVHGRQ3ULQFLSDO &RPSRQHQW$QDO\VLV 3&$ 2QILVKVKDSHLPDJHV 3& UHG PDWXUH ODUJH VDPSOHV DQGEOXHVPDOO \RXQJ VDPSOHV,QWKHVFDWWHUSORWFUR FURFRGLOH7XU 7XUNDQD&KH &KHODED%RJ %RJRULD7UW 7XUWOH%DU %DULQJR9LF 9LFWRULD 126 )LJXUH'LIIHUHQWLDWLRQRIWKHVHYHQSRSXODWLRQVRI1LOHWLODSLDXVLQJ/LQHDU 'LVFULPLQDQW$QDO\VLV /'$ 2QILVKVKDSHLPDJHV /'$ UHG PDWXUH ODUJH VDPSOHV DQGEOXHVPDOO \RXQJ VDPSOHV,QWKHVFDWWHUSORWFUR FURFRGLOH7XU 7XUNDQD&KH &KHODED%RJ %RJRULD7UW 7XUWOH%DU %DULQJR9LF 9LFWRULD 127 )LJXUH *URZWK SDWWHUQV LQ WKH VHYHQ SRSXODWLRQV RI 2UHRFKURPLV QLORWLFXV 5HG FRORXU UHSUHVHQWV WKH VKDSH RI WKH ODUJH VDPSOHV ZKLOH WKH EOXH FRORXU UHSUHVHQWV WKH VKDSHRIWKHVPDOOVL]HGLQGLYLGXDOV 128 )LJXUH0DQWHOWHVWRI)VWYDOXHVDJDLQVW0DKDODQRELVGLVWDQFHVKRZLQJSRVLWLYH FRUUHODWLRQ 129 )LJXUH83*0$GHQGURJUDPVKRZLQJRYHUDOOVLPLODULW\LQERG\VKDSHDPRQJWKH2 QLORWLFXVSRSXODWLRQV 130 ,9 *HQHUDOGLVFXVVLRQ 1LOH7LODSLDLVDQHPEOHPDWLFILVKIURP$IULFDZKLFKKDVEHHQLQWURGXFHGLQPRVWLIQRWDOO WKH WURSLFDO FRXQWULHV ,WV DELOLW\ WR DGDSW WR QHZ HQYLURQPHQWV DOORZHG LWWR FRORQL]H PRVW ULYHUEDVLQVLQWKHFRXQWULHVZKHUHLWZDVLQWURGXFHGIRUIDUPLQJ2QHZRXOGKDYHWKRXJKW WKDWFXOWXUHRIWKLV VSHFLHV ZRXOGKDYHEHHQVLPSOHOLNHUHDULQJRI HLWKHUFKLFNHQV RUSLJV ERWKFRQVLGHUHGDVSDUWRIWKHSDQWKHRQRIGRPHVWLFDWHGVSHFLHV+RZHYHUWKHUHDUHPDQ\QRW ZHOONQRZQ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI 2UHRFKURPLV QLORWLFXV WKDW VWLOO H[FLWH VFLHQWLVWV DQG ILVK IDUPHUV :HNQRZIURPWKHSLRQHHUZRUNRI7UHZDYDV WKDWWKHVSHFLHVLVQDWXUDOO\YDULDEOHDQG ZLGHO\VSUHDGLQ$IULFD7KHDXWKRUGHILQHGVHYHQJURXSVEDVHGRQPRUSKRORJLFDOGLIIHUHQFHV PHULVWLF DQG PRUSKRPHWULF FKDUDFWHUV DQG FDOOHG WKHP VXEVSHFLHV +RZHYHU ZH PXVW UHFRJQL]HWKDWWKLVZRUNKDGDORWRIGLVFUHSDQFLHVDQGIRUDORQJWLPHQHHGHGWREHUHYLVHG QRWRQO\ZLWKQHZPRUSKRPHWULFPHWKRGV DVJHRPRUSKRPHWULFV EXWDOVRZLWKJHQHWLFWRROV VHTXHQFHVRIPW'1$PLFURVDWHOOLWHV DQGZLWKHYROXWLRQDU\FRQVLGHUDWLRQVPRUHLQOLQHZLWK WKHPRGHUQYLHZRIHYROXWLRQ 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV LVDQHFRQRPLFDOO\LPSRUWDQWILVKVSHFLHVZKRVHZRUOGZLGHSRSXODULW\ KDVULVHQUDSLGO\RYHUWKHUHFHQWSDVW,WVGHYHORSPHQWLQDTXDFXOWXUHLVSDUWLDOO\KLQGHUHGE\ WKHIDFWWKDWLWLVGLIILFXOWWRSURGXFHPDOHPRQRVH[ILQJHUOLQJV,QGHHGWKHUHDUHGLIIHUHQFHV LQJURZWKUDWHVRIPDOHVDQGIHPDOHVDQGPDOHVWHQGWRJURZIDVWHUWKDQIHPDOHVRQRQHKDQG 2QWKHRWKHUKDQGXVH RIPL[HGVH[FXOWXUHV VKDUSO\ UHGXFHV JURZWK RIILVK DV DUHVXOWRI UHSURGXFWLRQ DFWLYLWLHV WKDW RFFXU ZLWKLQ WKH JURZRXW SRQGV 'HVSLWH VH[ GHWHUPLQDWLRQ KDYLQJEHHQVWXGLHGH[WHQVLYHO\LQWKH1LOHWLODSLDJHQHWLFFRQWUROWRSURGXFHPDOHVLVVWLOO XQUHOLDEOH 7KHUHIRUH WKH SURGXFWLRQ RI PDOH PRQRVH[ SRSXODWLRQ PDLQO\ UHOLHV XSRQ VH[ UHYHUVDO WUHDWPHQW XVLQJ DOSKDPHWK\OWHVWRVWHURQH ZLWK LPSRUWDQW FRQFHUQV DERXW HQYLURQPHQWDQGIRRGVDIHW\6H[LQWKLVVSHFLHV DVLQPDQ\RWKHUILVKVSHFLHV LVGHWHUPLQHG E\WKHLQWHUDFWLRQVEHWZHHQPDMRU VH[FKURPRVRPHV DQGPLQRU EURXJKWE\ERWKSDUHQWV JHQHWLFIDFWRUVDVZHOODVHQYLURQPHQWDOIDFWRUV7KHHQYLURQPHQWDOIDFWRULQIOXHQFLQJVH[LQ WKH1LOHWLODSLDLVWHPSHUDWXUH+LJKWHPSHUDWXUHV !& KDYHDVWURQJPDVFXOLQL]LQJHIIHFW RQ ;; IHPDOH WLODSLD %DURLOOHU HW DO %DURLOOHU HW DO 7KLV WHPSHUDWXUH VHQVLWLYLW\RIVH[GLIIHUHQWLDWLRQLVXQGHUJHQHWLFFRQWUROFDUULHGE\ERWKSDUHQWVLQDQDGGLWLYH ZD\ %DURLOOHU DQG '¶&RWWD %DURLOOHU HW DO :HVVHOV HW DO 7KHUPRVHQVLWLYLW\FDQEHUDSLGO\VHOHFWHG LQWKUHHJHQHUDWLRQV XQGHUODERUDWRU\FRQGLWLRQV 131 JLYLQJEUHHGHUVZKLFKSURGXFHa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qVH HW DO 1\LQJL DQG $JQqVH 1\LQJL HW DO %H]DXOW HWDO +RZHYHULWLVFOHDUWKDWVRPHRI 2QLORWLFXV QDWXUDOUHVRXUFHVDUH RQRQHKDQGQRWIXOO\VWXGLHGDQGVRPHDUHHYHQQRW\HWLGHQWLILHG)RUH[DPSOHILVKHVIURP /DNH7DQJDQ\LNDDUH\HWWREHVWXGLHGDQGVRPHQDWXUDOSRSXODWLRQVPD\VWLOOEHZDLWLQJWREH GLVFRYHUHG OLNH WKH UHFHQW SRSXODWLRQ RI /RERL 6ZDPS 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKHVH QDWXUDO JHQHWLFUHVRXUFHV DUHWKUHDWHQHGE\ ILVKIDUPLQJ DFWLYLWLHVWKURXJKK\EULGL]DWLRQZLWK RWKHU WLODSLDVVSHFLHV 1GLZD HWDO RUVWUDLQV $QVDK HWDO ,QWKLVFRQWH[WZHWDNHWKHRSSRUWXQLW\WKDW.HQ\DLVDKRWVSRWRI 2QLORWLFXV ELRGLYHUVLW\LQ RUGHU WR VWXG\ VRPH RI WKHVH QDWXUDO SRSXODWLRQV )URP DOO WKH SRVVLEOH SRSXODWLRQV ZH IRFXVHG RQ WKRVH WKDW OLYH LQ H[WUHPH HQYLURQPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV VLQFH WKH\ FRXOG UHSUHVHQW FDVHV RI VSHFLILF JHQHWLF DGDSWDWLRQ SRVVLEOH PRUSKRORJLFDO GLIIHUHQWLDWLRQ DQG DUH XQGHU VWURQJDQWKURSRJHQLFWKUHDWV 1HZJHQHWLFUHVRXUFHVXQGHUWKUHDWWKHFDVHRI/RERL6ZDPSKRWVSULQJSRSXODWLRQV ,QDVXUYH\RI 2QLORWLFXV SRSXODWLRQVLQ(DVW$IULFDWKHRFFXUUHQFHRIDQHZ SUHYLRXVO\ XQNQRZQ QDWLYHSRSXODWLRQRI 2QLORWLFXV LQ /RERL 6ZDPS /DNH%RJRULD+RWHO 6SULQJ .HQ\D KDV EHHQ GRFXPHQWHG 1\LQJL HW DO 7KLV SRSXODWLRQ ZDV LQLWLDOO\ 132 DVVXPHGWRKDYHEHHQLQWURGXFHGIURPRWKHUORFDOLWLHVZLWKLQWKHUHJLRQ+RZHYHULWVQDWLYH VWDWXVZDVFRQILUPHGGXHWRLWVVLJQLILFDQWDQGXQLTXHJHQHWLFYDULDELOLW\ZLWKDODUJHQXPEHU RI SULYDWH PLFURVDWHOOLWH DOOHOHV DQG PW'1$ KDSORW\SHV SDUWLDO 'ORRS 7KH SUHVHQFH RI WLODSLD LQ WZR RWKHU KRW VSULQJV LQ WKH /RERL 6ZDPS QDPHO\ 7XUWOH DQG &KHODED 6SULQJV SURPSWHGXVWRLQYHVWLJDWHWKHVHILVK7KHSUHVHQWVWXG\FOHDUO\HVWDEOLVKHVWKDWWKHVHWZRKRW VSULQJVDOVRKRVWQDWLYHILVKFORVHO\UHODWHGWRWKRVHIURP/DNH%RJRULD+RWHO6SULQJ 0RUHRYHUSDUWLDOPW'1$VHTXHQFHVRIWKH'ORRSUHJLRQDQDO\VLVVKRZHGWKDWWKHKDSORW\SH RI 2OHXFRVWLFXV IURP/DNH1DLYDVKDSUHYLRXVO\FRQILUPHGWREHSUHVHQWLQ/DNH%DULQJRLV DOVRSUHVHQWLQWKHWKUHH 2QLORWLFXV SRSXODWLRQVRIWKHVSULQJVWKXVSURYLGLQJHYLGHQFHWKDW VRPHRIWKHILVKLQ HDFKRIWKHKRW VSULQJV KDYHEHHQLQWURJUHVVHGE\ 2OHXFRVWLFWXV 7KH SUHYLRXVVWXG\RI/DNH%RJRULD+RWHO6SULQJVSHFLPHQV 1\LQJL HWDO GLGQRW GHWHFWDQ\LQWURJUHVVLRQ7KLVFDQEHGXHWRLQVXIILFLHQWQXPEHURIVSHFLPHQVVWXGLHG RU DVDUHVXOWRIYHU\UHFHQWLQWURJUHVVLRQHYHQWV,QGHHGLIWKHVHLQWURJUHVVLRQVRULJLQDWHGIURP DTXDFXOWXUH SUDFWLFHV LH HVFDSHHV RI 2 OHXFRVWLFWXV VSHFLPHQV RU IURP 2 QLORWLFXV LQWURJUHVVHG EHIRUHKDQG LQ ILVK IDUPV ZLWKLQ WKH /RERL VZDPS GUDLQDJH DV LW ZDV K\SRWKHVL]HGWKHQLWLVSRVVLEOHWKDWWKHVHLQWURJUHVVLRQVPD\KDYHRFFXUUHGDIWHU7KH VHFRQGK\SRWKHVLVLVPRUHOLNHO\WKDQWKHILUVW ,QGHHGILVKIDUPLQJDFWLYLWLHVZLWKLQWKHUHJLRQKDYHEHHQHQKDQFHGDVDUHVXOWRIIXQGLQJE\ .HQ\DQJRYHUQPHQWWKURXJKWKH(FRQRPLF6WLPXOXV3URJUDPPH (63 LQWURGXFHGLQ 7KHDLPRIWKH(63SURMHFWZDVWRFRQVWUXFWILVKSRQGVZRUWKPLOOLRQHXURVLQ FRQVWLWXHQFLHVE\-XQHZLWKHDFKFRQVWLWXHQF\UHFHLYLQJ¼ 1\LQJL HWDO (LJKW ILVKSRQGV KDYH EHHQ FRQVWUXFWHG EHWZHHQ DQG LQ FORVH SUR[LPLW\ WR WKH /RERL 6ZDPS ZLWKLQ D UDQJH RI ±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¶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p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p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³DPK\´PDUNHUVDVGHVFULEHGLQ(VKHO HWDO ZKLFKGLVFULPLQDWHVWZREDQGV DaESVL]HEDQGSUHVHQWLQ;;IHPDOHVDQGDVHFRQGaESEDQGRQO\SUHVHQWLQPDOHV ZKLFKFDUU\WKH<FKURPRVRPH;<DQG<<LQGLYLGXDOV:HREVHUYHGWKHSUHVHQFHRIVH[ LQYHUWHG ;; PDOHV DV ZHOO DV ;< IHPDOHV LQ VHYHUDO ZLOG SRSXODWLRQV $ ILQGLQJ ZKLFK FRUUHODWHVZLWKSUHYLRXVVWXGLHVLQZKLFKERWK;;PDOHVDQGDQ;<IHPDOHZHUHLQGLUHFWO\ LGHQWLILHG YLD SURJHQ\ WHVWLQJV RI ZLOG EUHHGHUV %H]DXOW HW DO 1HYHUWKHOHVV DV REVHUYHG LQ WKH 613V LW FOHDUO\ DSSHDUHG WKDW WKH ³ DPK\ ´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¶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¶V EHKDYLRXU PRUSKRORJ\ DQG SK\VLRORJ\ 3ULFH HW DO ,QGHHG WKHUH DUH PDQ\ HYLGHQFHV RI PRUSKRORJLFDOGLYHUVLILFDWLRQVDVDUHVXOWRIHQYLURQPHQWDOYDULDWLRQV 2UHRFKURPLV QLORWLFXV FDQ EH D PRGHO WR VWXGLHV DLPLQJ DW GHWHUPLQLQJ WKH UROH RI JHQHWLF YHUVXV HQYLURQPHQWLQPRUSKRORJLFDOGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQRIILVK2QRQHKDQGQDWXUDOSRSXODWLRQV DUHPRUSKRORJLFDOO\GLIIHUHQWLDWHGDVGHPRQVWUDWHGE\WKHSLRQHHUZRUNRI7UHZDYDV 2QWKHRWKHUKDQGWKHVHSRSXODWLRQVDUHJHQHWLFDOO\GLIIHUHQWLDWHGDVPDQ\DXWKRUVREVHUYHG 5RJQRQ HW DO $JQq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qVH-)$GHSR*RXUq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± %DURLOOHU - ) ' &RWWD + DQG 6DLOODQW ( E (QYLURQPHQWDO HIIHFWV RQ ILVK VH[ GHWHUPLQDWLRQDQGGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQ6H['HY %DURLOOHU -) DQG '¶&RWWD+(QYLURQPHQWDQGVH[GHWHUPLQDWLRQ LQ IDUPHGILVK &RPS%LRFKHP3K\VLRO&7R[LFRO3KDUPDFRO %DURLOOHU-)-DODEHUW%&RQWULEXWLRQRIUHVHDUFKLQUHSURGXFWLYHSK\VLRORJ\WRWKH FXOWXUHRIWLODSLDV $TXDW/LYLQJ5HVRXU ±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± (NQDWK$(DQG$FRVWD%*HQHWLFLPSURYHPHQWRIIDUPHGWLODSLDSURMHFW)LQDO UHSRUW ,&/$500DQLOD (NQDWK$(0DQDJLQJDTXDWLFJHQHWLFUHVRXUFHV0DQDJHPHQWH[DPSOH7KH1LOH WLODSLD,Q7KRUSH-*DOO*/DQQDQ-1DVK& HGV &RQVHUYDWLRQRIILVKDQGVKHOOILVK UHVRXUFHV0DQDJLQJGLYHUVLW\$FDGHPLF3UHVV/RQGRQSS +DUSHU '0 %URRNV &KLOGUHVV 0 +DUSHU 00 %RDU 55 +LFNOH\ 3 0LOOV 6& 2WLHQR1'UDQH79DUHVFKL(1DVLUZD20ZDWKD:('DUOLQJWRQ-3(&(VFXWp 141 *DVXOOD ; $TXDWLF ELRGLYHUVLW\ DQG VDOLQH ODNHV /DNH %RJRULD 1DWLRQDO 5HVHUYH .HQ\D+\GURELRORJLD ± .HUVFKEDXPHU0.DQG6WXUPEDXHU&7KHXWLOLW\RIJHRPHWULFPRUSKRPHWULFVWR HOXFLGDWHSDWKZD\VRIFLFKOLGVRIFLFKOLGHYROXWLRQ,QW -(YRO%LRO $UWLFOH,'SS 0H\HU$.RFKHU7'%DVDVLEZDNL3DQG:LOVRQ$&0RQRSK\OHWLFRULJLQRI /DNH9LFWRULDFLFKOLGILVKHVVXJJHVWHGE\PLWRFKRQGULDO'1$VHTXHQFHV1DWXUH 1GLZD&71\QJL'DQG$JQqVH-)$QLPSRUWDQWQDWXUDOJHQHWLFUHVRXUFHRI 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV /LQQDHXV WKUHDWHQHGE\DTXDFXOWXUHDFWLYLWLHVLQ/RERL GUDLQDJH.HQ\D3OR621( H 1\LQJL':DQG$JQHVHV-)3K\ORJHRJUDSK\RIWKH1LOH7LODSLDLQ$IULFD/DPEHUW $FDGHPLF3XEOLVKHUV 1\LQJL ' : DQG $JQqVH -) 5HFHQW LQWURJUHVVLYH K\EULGL]DWLRQ UHYHDOHG E\ H[FOXVLYHPW'1$WUDQVIHUIURP 2UHRFKURPLVOHXFRVWLFWXV 7UHZDYDV WR 2UHRFKURPLV QLORWLFXV /LQQDHXV LQ/DNH%DULQJR.HQ\D-)LVK%LR/DNH 6XSSOHPHQW$ ± 1\LQJL':$JQqVH-)7LODSLDLQHDVWHUQ$IULFD ±DIULHQGDQGIRH6SHFLHVLQWKH 6SRWOLJKW 'DUZDOO :57 6PLWK .* $OOHQ '- +ROODQG 5$ +DUULVRQ ,- DQG %URRNV(*( HGLWRUV 7KH'LYHUVLW\RI /LIHLQ $IULFDQ)UHVKZDWHUV 8QGHU:DWHU 8QGHU 7KUHDW$QDQDO\VLVRIWKHVWDWXVDQGGLVWULEXWLRQRIIUHVKZDWHUVSHFLHVWKURXJKRXWPDLQODQG $IULFD&DPEULGJH8QLWHG.LQJGRPDQG*ODQG6ZLW]HUODQG,8&13S 1\LQJL ' 'H9RV / $PDQ 5 DQG $JQqVH - ) *HQHWLF FKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ RI DQ XQNQRZQ DQG HQGDQJHUHG QDWLYH SRSXODWLRQ RI WKH 1LOH WLODSLD 2UHRFKURPLV QLORWLFXV /LQQDHXV &LFKOLGDH7HOHRVWHL LQWKH/RERL6ZDPS .HQ\D $TXDFXOWXUH 2ZHQ5%&URVVOH\5-RKQVRQ7&7ZHGGOH'.RUQILHOG,'DYLVRQ6(FFOHV' +DQG(QJWURP'(0DMRUORZOHYHOVRI/DNH0DODZLDQGWKHLULPSOHFDWLRQIRU VSHFLDWLRQUDWHVLQFLFKOLGILVKHV3URF5/RQG% 2ZHQ5%5HQDXW5:+RYHU9&$VKOH\*00XDV\D$06ZDPSV VSULQJV DQG GLDWRPV ZHWODQGV UHJLRQV RI WKH VHPLDULG %RJRULD ±%DULQJR 5LIW .HQ\D +\GURELRORJLD ±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pVXPpGpWDLOOpGHODWKqVH /HWLODSLDGX1LO 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV /LQQp IDLWSDUWLHGHODIDPLOOHGHV&LFKOLGDH TXLUHJURXSHHQYLURQHVSqFHVSULQFLSDOHPHQWGLVWULEXpHVGDQVOHVUpJLRQVWURSLFDOHVHW VXE WURSLFDOHVGXPRQGH&HWWHHVSqFHRULJLQDLUHG¶$IUL TXHDpWpLQWURGXLWHGDQVSOXVGH SD\VjWUDYHUVOHPRQGHSRXU\rWUHpOHYpH'HSXLVOHSUHPLHUWUDYDLOGH7UHZDYDV XQ FHUWDLQQRPEUHG pWXGHVRQWWHQWpGHGRFXPHQWHUODGLYHUVLWpGHVSRSXODWLRQVQDWXUHOOHVG¶ 2 QLORWLFXV HQ SDUWLFXOLHU OHXU FDUDFWpULVDWLRQ JpQpWLTXH 5RJQRQ HW DO $JQqVH HW DO 1\LQJL HWDO %H]DXOW HWDO &HSHQGDQWODFRQQDLVVDQFHGHOHXUGLYHUVLWp JpQpWLTXH UHVWH HQFRUH LQVXIILVDQWH (Q RXWUH FHUWDLQHV SRSXODWLRQV QDWXUHOOHV VRQW PDO FRQQXHVFRPPHFHOOHGXODF7DQJDQ\LNDSDUH[HPSOHRXSHXWrWUHPrPHHQFRUHLQFRQQXHV FRPPHHQWpPRLJQHODUpFHQWHGpFRXYHUWHG XQHSRSXODWLRQQDWXUHOOHDX.HQ\D 1\LQJL HWDO /DSOXSDUWVLQRQWRXWHVGHVUHVVRXUFHVQDWXUHOOHVJpQpWLTXHVGXWLODSLDGX1LOVHWURXYHQWHQ $IULTXH HW MRXHQW XQ U{OH PDMHXU GDQV O DPpOLRUDWLRQ GHV VRXFKHV FXOWLYpHV GDQV G DXWUHV SDUWLHV GX PRQGH 3DU H[HPSOH OH WLODSLD *,)7 *HQHWLFDOO\ ,PSURYHG )DUPHG 7LODSLD VRXFKH JpQpWLTXHPHQW DPpOLRUpH D pWp GpYHORSSpH j SDUWLU GH SRSXODWLRQV IRQGDWULFHV GX WLODSLD GX 1LO SURYHQDQW GH SRSXODWLRQV VDXYDJHV HW GH VRXFKHV FXOWLYpHV (NQDWK (NQDWK HW $FRVWD 1RWDPPHQW GHV SRLVVRQV HQ SURYHQDQFH G (J\SWH GX *KDQD GX .HQ\DHWGX6pQpJDORQWpWpXWLOLVpVDLQVLTXHGHVVRXFKHVG¶pO HYDJHSURYHQDQWG ,VUDsOGH 6LQJDSRXUGH7DLZDQHWGH7KDwODQGH *XSWDHW$FRVWD 0rPHVLOHWLODSLDGX1LOHVWXQHHVSqFHHQYDKLVVDQWHGDQVGHQRPEUHX[EDVVLQVIOXYLDX[HWD SDUIRLVpWpDFFXVpG rWUHjO¶RULJLQHGHODGLVSDULWLRQGHFHUWDLQHVHV SqFHVGHSRLVVRQV 2JXWX 2KZD\R VHVSRSXODWLRQVQDWXUHOOHVVRQWDXVVLPHQDFpHV 1\LQJL HWDO 1\LQJLHW $JQqVH /DSULQFLSDOHPHQDFHHVWFHUWDLQHPHQWO K\EULGDWLRQDYHFG DXWUHVHVSqFHVRX SRSXODWLRQV &HWWH VLWXDWLRQ GHYLHQW GH SOXV HQ SOXV FULWLTXH VXUWRXW DSUqV OD UpFHQWH LQWURGXFWLRQGHVRXFKHVV\QWKpWLTXHVFRPPHFHOOHGXWLODSLD*,)7HQ$IULTXH $QVDK HWDO 7UHZDYDV IXWODSUHPLqUHjpWXGLHUOHVSRSXODWLRQVQDWXUHOOHVGXWLODSLDGX1LO$SDUWLU GH O pWXGH GH OHXUV FDUDFWpULVWLTXHV PRUSKRORJLTXHV HOOH D GpFULW VHSW VRXVHVSqFHV 2 Q QLORWLFXV G¶$IULTXHGHO 2XHVWHWGX1LO 2QEDULQJRHQVLV GXODF%DULQJR 2QVXJXWDH GHOD ULYLqUH6XJXWD .HQ\D 2QHGXDUGLDQXV GHVODFV(GRXDUG$OEHUW*HRUJHHW7DQJDQ\LND 144 2QYXOFDQL GXODF7XUNDQD 2QFDQFHOODWXV GHODULYLqUH$ZDVKHWGXODF7DQDHW 2Q ILORD GHVRXUFHVG HDXFKDXGHGDQVOHV\VWqPHGHODULYLqUH$ZDVK &HWUDYDLODVHUYLHWVHUWHQFRUHGHQRVMRXUVGHUpIpUHQFHVXU 2QLORWLFXV HWOHVDXWUHVHVSqFHV GHWLODSLD&HSHQGDQWXQHDQDO\VHPLQXWLHXVHGHVGRQQpHVIRXUQLHVVXUODGLIIpUHQFLDWLRQGHV VRXVHVSqFHVGXWLODSLDGX1LOUpYqOHTXH7UHZDYDV DXWLOLVpDSOXVLHXUVUHSULVHVGHV DUJXPHQWVELHQIDLEOHVHWWUqVVXEMHFWLIV3DUIRLVHOOHDXWLOLVpGHVFDUDFWqUHVFRPPHOHQRPEUH GHUD\RQVGHVQDJHRLUHVFRPPHFDUDFWqUHGHGLIIpUHQFLDWLRQDORUVTXHO¶pYHQWDLOGHVYDOHXUV REVHUYpHV SRXU FH FDUDFWqUH HQWUDLQH GHV FKHYDXFKHPHQWV HQWUH OHV VRXVHVSqFHV YRLU SDU H[HPSOH OH WDEOHDX SDJHV &HFL H[SOLTXH VDQV GRXWH SRXUTXRL O DXWHXU Q D SDV IRXUQLXQHFOpG LGHQWLILFDWLRQGHVVRXVHVSqFHV 3OXVSUREOpPDWLTXHHVWO DEVHQFHGHWRXWHFRQVLGpUDWLRQRXGHGpILQLWLRQGHFHTXLHVWRXFHTXL GHYUDLW rWUH XQH VRXVHVSqFH 6RQWHOOHV pTXLYDOHQWHV j GHV XQLWpV pYROXWLYHV 5\GHU :DSOHV RX UHSUpVHQWHQWHOOHV VLPSOHPHQW GHV SRSXODWLRQV PRUSKRORJLTXHPHQW GLIIpUHQFLpHVVDQVVLJQLILFDWLRQpYROXWLYH",OHVWGLIILFLOHGHFRPSUHQGUHTXHOpWDLWOHFRQFHSW GH VRXVHVSqFH DGRSWp SDU FHW DXWHXU 3DU H[HPSOH 2 Q FDQFHOODWXV HW 2 Q ILORD VRQW SUpVHQWV SDUDkWULTXH GDQVOHPrPHEDVVLQFHOXLGHODULYLqUH$ZDVK&HWWHVLWXDWLRQODLVVH SOXW{W SHQVHU TXH O¶RQ D DIIDLUH VRLW j GHX[ HVSqFHV GLIIpUHQWHV VRLW j GHX[ pFR SKpQRW\SHV GLIIpUHQWVGHODPrPHHVSqFH/DPrPHVLWXDWLRQVHUHWURXYHDYHF 2QHGXDUGLDQXV GDQVOH ODF(GRXDUGTXLHVWHQFRQWDFWDYHF 2QQLORWLFXV GDQVOH1LO$ODOHFWXUHGHVRQRXYUDJHLO DSSDUDLWTXHVRQDXWHXUDREVHUYpXQHFHUWDLQHTXDQWLWpGHYDULDELOLWpHQWUHOHVSRSXODWLRQVHWD WURXYpSUDWLTXHGHOHXUIRXUQLUGHVQRPVSRXUSUpVHUYHUOHXULGHQWLWpSRXUVpYLUDX[IXWXUV H[SpULPHQWDWHXUVRXJHVWLRQQDLUHVGHVSrFKHV FLWDWLRQGHODSDJHGHUQLqUHSKUDVH 'HSXLV7UHZDYDV SHXWG¶DYDQFpHVRQpWpIDLWHVVXUODGL IIpUHQWLDWLRQSKpQRW\SLTXHVGHV SRSXODWLRQV VDXYDJHV GX WLODSLD GX 1LO FH TXL QRXV D DPHQp j UpDOLVHU GHV pWXGHV VXU OD GLIIpUHQFLDWLRQPRUSKRORJLTXHGHVSRSXODWLRQVjO¶DLGHGHWHFKQLTXHVjODIRLVQRXYHOOHVHW SOXV SXLVVDQWHV FRPPH OHV DQDO\VHV JpRPRUSKRPpWULTXHV %RRNVWHLQ $YHF FHV DQDO\VHV OHV YDULDWLRQV GH IRUPHV HQWUH OHV GLIIpUHQWV WD[RQV RX PrPH OHV GLIIpUHQWHV SRSXODWLRQVSHXYHQWHIILFDFHPHQWrWUHDSSUpKHQGpHV /D WHFKQLTXH D pWp XWLOLVpH DYHF VXFFqV SDU H[HPSOH SDU )LUPDW HW DO SRXU GLIIpUHQFLHU SRSXODWLRQV GH WLODSLD GX 0R]DPELTXH 2UHRFKURPLV PRVVDPELFXV GH VRQ DLUHGHUpSDUWLWLRQQDWXUHOOHDX0R]DPELTXHGHVSRSXODWLRQVVDXYDJHVGH1RXYHOOH&DOpGRQLH HWGHOD*XDGHORXSHDSUqVOHXUDFFOLPDWDWLRQGDQVFHVQRXYHDX[HQYLURQQHPHQWV / DQDO\VH 145 JpRPRUSKRPpWULTXHHVWpJDOHPHQWFDSDEOHGHGLIIpUHQFLHUOHVSRSXODWLRQVPrPHpWURLWHPHQW OLpV FRPPH .HUVFKEDXPHU HW 6WXUPEDXHU O¶RQW PRQWUp HQ pWXGLDQW GHV SRSXODWLRQV VDXYDJHVGH 7URSKHXVPRRULL %LHQDSUqV7UHZDYDV O XWLOLVDWLRQGHWHFKQLTXHVJpQpWLTXHV pWXGHGHVDOOR]\PHVGHV VpTXHQFHVG $'1PLWRFKRQGULDOGHVPLFURVDWHOOLWHV DSHUPLVXQHGHVFULSWLRQSOXVGpWDLOOpH GHVGLIIpUHQWHVSRSXODWLRQVGHWLODSLDGX1LO3DUH[HPSOH$JQqVH HWDO RQWpWXGLp SRSXODWLRQVQDWXUHOOHVUHSUpVHQWDQWOHVVHSWVRXVHVSqFHVGpFULWHVSDU7UHZDYDV HWOHV RQW UHJURXSpHV HQ WURLV JUDQGV JURXSHV SRSXODWLRQV G $IULTXH RFFLGHQWDOH OHV SRSXODWLRQVpWKLRSLHQQHVGHODYDOOpHGX5LIWHW OHVSRSXODWLRQVGX1LOHWGHODYDOOpHGX 5LIWGX.HQ\D ' DXWUHV pWXGHV JpQpWLTXHV RQW pWp PHQpHV FRPPH FHOOHV GH 5RJQRQ HW DO +DVVDQLHQHW*LOEH\ 1\LQJLHW$JQqVH 1\LQJL HWDO $QJLHQGD HWDO HW%H]DXOW HWDO 7RXWHVFHVpWXGHVFRQVWLWXHQWXQHSUpFLHXVHGRFXPHQWDWLRQGHV UHVVRXUFHVJpQpWLTXHVGXWLODSLDGX1LOPDLVUHVWHQWPDOJUpWRXWHQFRUHLQFRPSOqWHV 5pFHPPHQW SDUH[HPSOHXQHQRXYHOOHSRSXODWLRQQDWXUHOOHG¶ 2QLORWLFXV DpWpGpFRXYHUWH GDQVXQHVRXUFHFKDXGHGXPDUDLVGH/RERL 1\LQJL HWDO &HWWHSRSXODWLRQPpULWDLWDPSOHPHQWTX¶RQV¶\LQWpUHVVHSDUOHGRXEOHIDLWTX¶HOOHUHSUpVHQWH XQHUHVVRXUFHJpQpWLTXHRULJLQDOHHWKDXWHPHQWLQWpUHVVDQWHSRXUO¶pOHYDJHG¶ 2QLORWLFXV HW G¶DXWUHSDUWSDUFHTX¶HOOHHVWHQGDQJ HU /D SURGXFWLYLWp GHV pOHYDJHV G¶ 2 QLORWLFXV UHSRVH HQ JUDQGH SDUWLH VXU OD SRVVLELOLWp GH SRXYRLUUpDOLVHUGHVFXOWXUHVPRQRVH[HPkOHV3OXVLHXUVPpWKRGHVH[LVWHQWSRXU\SDUYHQLU VH[DJHPDQXHOK\EULGDWLRQWUDLWHPHQWKRUPRQDOPDQLSXODWLRQVJpQpWLTXH$XFXQHQHGRQQH SOHLQHPHQW VDWLVIDFWLRQ 3DU DLOOHXUV 2Q FRQQDvW OHV HIIHWV PDVFXOLQLVDQWV GHV WHPSpUDWXUHV pOHYpHV %DURLOOHU HWDO D HWOHIDLWTXHOHVSRSXODWLRQVYDULHQWGHFHSRLQWGHYXHSDU GHVWKHUPRVHQVLELOLWpGLIIpUHQWHVHWGRQFJpQpWLTXHPHQWGpWHUPLQpHV %H]DXOW HWDO /D SRSXODWLRQGHVVRXUFHVFKDXGHVGXPDUDLVGH/RERLHVWWUqVYUDLVHPEODEOHPHQWDGDSWpHDX[ KDXWHV WHPSpUDWXUHV HW SDU FRQVpTXHQW RIIUH O¶RSSRUWXQLWp G¶pWXGLHU FH SKpQRPqQH GH WKHUPRVHQVLELOLVDWLRQVXUXQHSRSXODWLRQQDWXUHOOH 3DU DLOOHXUV FHWWH SRSXODWLRQ HVW HQ GDQJHU &RPPH OD SRSXODWLRQ GX ODF %DULQJR WRXWH SURFKH HOOH SHXW FUDLQGUH O¶LQWURGXFWLRQ G¶HVSqFHV pWUDQJqUHV DX VHLQ GH VRQ EDVVLQ K\GURJUDSKLTXHHQUDLVRQGHVDFWLYLWpVDTXDFROHVGDQVODUpJLRQ(QRXWUHODWDLOOHGXPDUDLV 146 V¶HVW FRQVLGpUDEOHPHQW UpGXLWH FHV GHUQLqUHV DQQpHV )XFK 1\LQJL HW DO PHWWDQWHQGDQJHUO¶H[LVWHQFHPrPHGHODULYLqUH 3RXU FHV UDLVRQV QRXV DYRQV PLV HQ SODFH GHX[ W\SHV G¶pWXGHV G¶XQH SDUW O¶pWXGH GH O D FDUDFWpULVDWLRQ JpQpWLTXH GH FHWWH SRSXODWLRQ GX PDUDLV /RERL HW G¶DXWUH SDUW O¶pWXGH GH OD YDULDELOLWp JpQpWLTXH DX QLYHDX GHV 613 VLWXpV GDQV GHV UpJLRQV JpQRPLTXHV FRQQXHV SRXU DYRLUGHVOLHQVDYHFODGLIIpUHQFLDWLRQGXVH[HFKH] 2QLORWLFXV %DURLOOHU HWDO E 1RWUH WUDYDLO VH FRPSRVH GRQF GH WURLV SDUWLHV G¶XQH SDUW O¶DQDO\VH JpRPRUSKRORJLTXH GH FHUWDLQHV SRSXODWLRQV QDWXUHOOHV GH 2 QLORWLFXV DILQ GH PHWWUH HQ pYLGHQFH OHXU GLYHUVLWp PRUSKRORJLTXHOHXUSODVWLFLWpSKpQRW\SLTXHHW O¶HIIHW HQYLURQQHPHQWDO VXUOHVSKpQRW\SHV G¶DXWUH SDUW QRXV DYRQV FDUDFWpULVp JpQpWLTXHPHQW FHV SRSXODWLRQV DILQ G¶pYDOXHU OHXU RULJLQDOLWp HW OHXU LQWpJULWp JpQpWLTXH (QILQ QRXV DYRQV FKHUFKp j PHWWUH HQ pYLGHQFH GHV SKpQRPqQHVDGDSWDWLIVTXLFRQFHUQHOHU{OHGHODWHPSpUDWXUHGDQVODGpWHUPLQDWLRQGXVH[H 9DULDWLRQVPRUSKRORJLTXHVDXVHLQGHVSRSXODWLRQVQDWXUHOOHVGHWLODSLDGX 1LOYLYDQWVGDQVGHVFRQGLWLRQVHQYLURQQHPHQWDOHVH[WUrPHVGDQVODYDOOpH GX5LIWGX.HQ\D /HV pFKDQWLOORQV SURYHQDQW GH WURLV SRSXODWLRQV GH VRXUFHV FKDXGHV GX PDUDLV GH /RERL &KHODED/DNH%RJRULDHW7XUWOH6SULQJVGHWURLVDXWUHVORFDOLWpVOHVODFV%DULQJR7XUNDQDHW &URFRGLOHHWGXODF9LFWRULDRQWpWppWXGLpV &KDTXHVSpFLPHQDpWpVFDQQpjO¶DLGHG¶XQVFDQQHUjSODW +HUOHU HWDO OHVLPDJHVRQW pWpHQVXLWHLPSRUWpHVGDQVOHSURJUDPPHWSV8WLOODYHUVLRQ 5RKOI /DIRUPHGX FRUSVGHVSRLVVRQDpWpDSSUpKHQGpHjO DLGHGHODPpWKRGHGHVUHSqUHVPRUSKRJpRPpWULTXH 5RKOIHW0DUFXV 8QWRWDOGHSRLQWV UHSqUHV RQWpWpFKRLVLVHQIRQFWLRQGHOHXU FDSDFLWpjFDSWHUIRUPHJpQpUDOHGXFRUSVHWOHXUVFRRUGRQQpHV [\ QXPpULVpHVVXUOHF{Wp JDXFKHGHFKDTXHSRLVVRQHQXWLOLVDQWOHSURJUDPPHWSV'LJODYHUVLRQ 5RKOI 8QWRWDOGHVSpFLPHQVSURYHQDQWGHVHSWSRSXODWLRQVQDWXUHOOHVGXWLODSLDGX1LO %RJRULD K{WHO VSULQJ LQGLYLGXV &KHODED VSULQJ 7XUWOH VSULQJ ODF %DULQJR /DF 9LFWRULD /DF &URFRGLOH HW ODF 7XUNDQD RQW pWp DQDO\VpV /HXUV GLPHQVLRQV VWDQGDUGRQWYDULpGHPPjPP 147 / DQDO\VHGHVGRQQpHVDpWpUpDOLVpHjO DLGHGHSURJLFLHOVGHORJLFLHOV5 &ODXGH $ILQ G pWDEOLU OHV YDULDWLRQV PRUSKRORJLTXHV HQWUH OHV GLIIpUHQWHV SRSXODWLRQV GH SRLVVRQV QRXVDYRQVXWLOLVpO DQDO\VHHQFRPSRVDQWHVSULQFLSDOHV $&3 GHVFRRUGRQQpHVVXSHUSRVpHV GHV SRLQWV GH UHSqUH /HV YDULDWLRQV RQW pWp YLVXDOLVpHV HQ WUDoDQW OHV UHSUpVHQWDWLRQ GHV FRRUGRQQpHV PXOWLYDULpHV GHV pFKDQWLOORQV VXU OHV GHX[ SUHPLqUHV FRPSRVDQWHV SULQFLSDOHV 3& D[HV 6DQ V VXUSULVH O¶DQDO\VH PRUSKRORJLTXH D UpYpOp TXH OHV pFKDQWLOORQV pWXGLpV RQW pWp WRXW G¶DERUG GLIIpUHQFLpVSDUOHXUVWDLOOHV/HVSRLVVRQVGHVODFV7XUNDQDHW9LFWRULDRQWOHVWDLOOHV PR\HQQHVOHVSOXVLPSRUWDQWHVPP PR\HQQHpFDUWW\SH HWPP UHVSHFWLYHPHQW /HVSOXVSHWLWVVSpFLPHQVSURYHQDLHQWGH7XUWOH6SULQJ HWGXODF&URFRGLOH PP HW PP UHVSHFWLYHPHQW /HV GLIIpUHQFHV RQW pJDOHPHQW pWp REVHUYpHVHQWHUPHVGHYDULDELOLWpGHVWDLOOHV&HUWDLQVpFKDQWLOORQVDYDLHQWXQHSOXVJUDQGH JDPPHGHWDLOOH ODF9LFWRULD TXHG DXWUHV ODF&URFRGLOH &HVGLIIpUHQFHVREVHUYpHVSHXYHQW UHSUpVHQWHU GHV DUWHIDFWV HQ SDUWLH GXV j O pFKDQWLOORQQDJH HW SHXYHQW QH SDV UHIOpWHU FRPSOqWHPHQWOHVGLIIpUHQFHVUpHOOHVGHODWDLOOHGHVSRLVVRQVGDQVOHVGLIIpUHQWHVORFDOLWpVHQ GpSLWGXIDLWTXHO¶RQVDLWTXHOHVODFV 7XUNDQDHW9LFWRULDDFFXHLOOHQWGHJUDQGVVSpFLPHQVGH 2 QLORWLFXV 7UHZDYDV HQ UDLVRQ GH OHXUV JUDQGHV WDLOOHV HW GH OHXUV SOXV JUDQGHV SURIRQGHXUVSDUUDSSRUWDX[DXWUHVELRWRSHVpWXGLpVDXFRXUVGHFHWUDYDLO 'DQV QRWUH pWXGH QRXV DYRQV REVHUYp GLIIpUHQWV PRGqOHV DOORPpWULTXHV GH FURLVVDQFH GDQV FKDFXQH GHV VHSW SRSXODWLRQV pWXGLpHV &RPSWH WHQX GX IDLW TXH OD SOXSDUW GHV ORFDOLWpV GLIIqUHQW JUDQGHPHQW GH SDU OHXUV FRQGLWLRQV HQYLURQQHPHQWDOHV OHV DOORPpWULHV REVHUYpHV SHXYHQWrWUHDWWULEXpHVHQSDUWLHDX[GLIIpUHQFHVHQYLURQQHPHQWDOHV WHPSpUDWXUHHWVDOLQLWp TXLDXUDLHQWDJLVXUFHUWDLQVVWDGHVGHGpYHORSSHPHQW,OHVWHQFRUHWURSW{WjFHVWDGHSRXU GLUHVLOHVGLIIpUHQFHVREVHUYpHVVRQWG¶RUGUHDGDSWDWLYHVRXVLPSOHPHQW GXHVjODSODVWLFLWp PDLVFHVGHX[K\SRWKqVHVSRXUUDLHQWrWUHWHVWpHVHQIDLVDQWSDUH[HPSOHGHVWUDQVSODQWDWLRQV UpFLSURTXHVH[SpULPHQWDOHVGHSRLVVRQV /HV DQDO\VHV RQW PRQWUp XQ JUDQG QRPEUH GH GLIIpUHQFHV GH IRUPH SDUPL OHVTXHOOHV OHV YDULDWLRQV GH OD WrWH GX SpGRQFXOH FDXGDO HW GH OD QDJHRLUH DQDOH UHSUpVHQWDLHQW &HV YDULDWLRQV RQW SHUPLV GH GLVFULPLQHU OHV VSpFLPHQV GX ODF 9LFWRULD GH FHX[ GHV DXWUHV SRSXODWLRQV ODFV %DULQJR 7XUNDQD HW OHV VRXUFHV G HDX FKDXGH $X VHLQ GH FHV DXWUHV SRSXODWLRQVOHVSRLVVRQVGXODF7XUNDQDRQWpWpFODLUHPHQWGLIIpUHQFLpVHWRFFXSHQWXQHSODFH LQWHUPpGLDLUH HQWUH OD SRSXODWLRQ GX ODF 9LFWRULD HW OHV DXWUHV &HV UpVXOWDWV VRQW HQ DFFRUG 148 DYHF OHV UHODWLRQV JpQpWLTXHV REVHUYpHV SDU $JQqVH HW DO (Q HIIHW FHV DXWHXUV RQW PRQWUpV TXH OHV SRLVVRQV GX ODF ODF %DULQJR HW FHX[ GX ODF 7XUNDQD VRQW JpQpWLTXHPHQW SURFKHV3DUODVXLWH1\LQJL HWDO HW1GLZD HWDO RQWREVHUYpTXHOHVSRLVVRQV GHV VRXUFHV FKDXGHV VRQW HQFRUH SOXV pWURLWHPHQW OLpV DX[ SRLVVRQV GX ODF %DULQJR 6L O RQ VXSSRVH TXH OHV SRLVVRQV GX ODF &URFRGLOH GRLYHQW DYRLU XQH EDVH JpQpWLTXH LGHQWLTXH DX[ SRLVVRQVGXODF7XUNDQDHWTXHOHVSRLVVRQVGXODF9LFWRULDTXLRQWpWpLQWURGXLWHVjSDUWLUGH SRLVVRQVRULJLQDLUHVGXODF$OEHUW )U\HUHW,OHV7UHZDYDV GHYUDLHQWrWUHPRLQV OLpV JpQpWLTXHPHQW j WRXV OHV DXWUHV SRLVVRQV pWXGLpV OD GLIIpUHQFLDWLRQ PRUSKRORJLTXH GHV SRSXODWLRQVHVWFRQJUXHQWHDYHFOHXUGLIIpUHQFLDWLRQJpQpWLTXH /RUVTXHO RQUHJDUGHGHSOXVSUqVOHVSRSXODWLRQVJpQpWLTXHPHQWOLpHVRQSHXWWRXWGHPrPH REVHUYHUXQHFHUWDLQHTXDQWLWpGHGLIIpUHQFLDWLRQPRUSKRORJLTXH/HSUHPLHUFDVFRQFHUQHGHV VSpFLPHQVGHVWURLVVRXUFHVG HDXFKDXGH/HVpFKDQWLOORQVGH%RJRULDHW&KHODEDRX%RJRULD HW7XUWOHVSULQJVRQWPRUSKRORJLTXHPHQWGLIIpUHQFLpHV3DUH[HPSOHOHVLQGLYLGXVGH&KHODED HW%RJRULD6SULQJVYDULHQWHQFHTXLFRQFHUQHOHVSURSRUWLRQVORQJXHXUGXFRUSVHWSURIRQGHXU GXFRUSV/HVLQGLYLGXVGHVSRSXODWLRQV%RJRULD&KHODEDHW7XUWOHVSULQJVHGLIIpUHQFLHDX QLYHDXGHODORQJXHXUGHODWrWHHWODKDXWHXUGXFRUSV 6L O RQ FRQVLGqUH TXHOD EDVH JpQpWLTXHGH FHV WURLV SRSXODWLRQV HVW OD PrPH 1GLZD HW DO FHVGLIIpUHQFLDWLRQVPRUSKRORJLTXHVREVHUYpHVSRXUUDLHQWrWUHDWWULEXpHVjODSODVWLFLWp SKpQRW\SLTXH GH O HVSqFH /HV FDUDFWpULVWLTXHV HQYLURQQHPHQWDOHV WUqV SUREDEOHV GH FHV VRXUFHV FKDXGHV VRQW OpJqUHPHQW GLIIpUHQWHV %RJRULD VSULQJ HVW OD SOXV JUDQGH GHV WURLV VRXUFHV G HDX FKDXGH HW FRXOH SHQGDQW TXHOTXHV FHQWDLQHV GH PqWUHV DYDQW G HQWUHU GDQV OH PDUDLV /HV GHX[ DXWUHV RQW XQ GpELW SOXV IDLEOH HW HQWUHQW GDQV OH PDUDLV DSUqV VHXOHPHQW TXHOTXHV PqWUHV 1pDQPRLQV VHXOV TXHOTXHV JqQHV SHXYHQW DJLU IRUWHPHQW VXU OD GLIIpUHQFLDWLRQ PRUSKRORJLTXH RQ QH SHXW H[FOXUH TXH OHV GLIIpUHQFHV PRUSKRORJLTXHV REVHUYpHVHQWUHOHVWURLVSRSXODWLRQVWKHUPDOHVVRLHQWWRXWGHPrPHGXHVjGHVGLIIpUHQFHV JpQpWLTXHV 1GLZD HWDO RQWREVHUYpTXHOHVIOX[GHJqQHVHQWUHFHVSRSXODWLRQVHVWOLPLWpSDUOH PDUDLVTXLHVWFRXYHUWHG XQHYpJpWDWLRQGHQVHGH7\SKDGRPLQJHQ VLVHW&\SHUXVSDS\UXV 'H SOXV1GLZD HWDO RQWpJDOHPHQWREVHUYpTXHFHVSRLVVRQVVRQWOpJqUHPHQWLQWURJUHVVpV SDU GHV JqQHV GH 2 OHXFRVWLFWXV pFKDSSpV GHIH UPHV DTXDFROHV WRXWHV SURFKHV /¶DFWLRQGH JqQHVpWUDQJHUVLVVXVGHFHVLQWURJUHVVLRQVDJLVVDQWVXUODGLIIpUHQFLDWLRQPRUSKRORJLTXHQH SHXWrWUHH[FOXH 149 /HGHX[LqPHFDVGHSRSXODWLRQVJpQpWLTXHPHQWOLpVGDQVQRWUHpWXGHSRUWHVXUOHVSRLVVRQV GHVODFV7XUNDQDHW&URFRGLOH,O\DYDLWDXVVLXQHGLIIpUHQFLDWLRQPRUSKRORJLTXHFODLUHHQWUH FHVGHX[JURXSHVGHSRLVVRQVTXLGLIIqUHQWSDUODKDXWHXUGXFRUSVODSURSRUWLRQGHODWrWHHW ODORQJXHXUGHODFDXGDOH &HV GHX[ SRSXODWLRQV VRQW JpQpWLTXHPHQW WUqV SURFKHV UpVXOWDWV QRQ SXEOLpV SXLVTXH OD SRSXODWLRQGXODF&URFRGLOHWLUHVRQRULJLQHLO\DHQYLURQXQVLqFOHGHFHOOHGXODF7XUNDQD 7UqV SUREDEOHPHQW OHV GLIIpUHQFHV REVHUYpHV SHXYHQW rWUH DWWULEXpHV j GH OD SODVWLFLWp SKpQRW\SLTXH&HVODFVRIIUHQWGHX[HQYLURQQHPHQWVWUqVGLIIpUHQWVSRXUOHVSRLVVRQV/HODF 7XUNDQDHVWXQJUDQGODFDOFDOLQ S+ HWOpJqUHPHQWVDOp FRQGXFWLYLWp6FP TXL KpEHUJHPHQW GH QRPEUHXVHV HVSqFHV GH SRLVVRQV G¶ DSUqV +RSVRQ HW DO (Q FRPSDUDLVRQOHODF&URFRGLOHHVWXQSHWLWODF HQYLURQNP DYHFXQHDOFDOLQLWp S+ HWXQHVDOLQLWp FRQGXFWLYLWpX6FP SOXVpOHYpHV6HXOHVWURLVHVSqFHVGHSRLVVRQV VRQW SUpVHQWV GHX[ FLFKOLGpV $SORFKURPLV VS HW 2 QLORWLFXV HW XQ &ODULLGDH &ODULDV JDULHSLQXV /DUpGXFWLRQREVHUYpHGHODIRUPHGXFRUSVSHXWrWUHXQHUpSRQVHDGDSWDWLYHDX[ QLYHDX[pOHYpVGHVDOLQLWpGDQVO KDELWDW&HWWHK\SRWKqVHVRXWLHQWOHVFRQFOXVLRQVGH&ROO\HU HW DO TXL RQW QRWp XQH UpGXFWLRQ GH WDLOOH FKH] OHV ©SXSILVKª &\SULQRGRQ WXODURVD HQIRQFWLRQGHO DXJPHQWDWLRQGXQLYHDXGHVDOLQLWp (Q FRQFOXVLRQ QRWUH pWXGH WHQG j PRQWUHU TX¶j OD IRLV GHV IDFWHXUV JpQpWLTXHV HW HQYLURQQHPHQWDX[MRXHQWXQU{OHLPSRUWDQWHQLQIOXHQoDQWOHGpYHORSSHPHQWPRUSKRORJLTXH GH 2QLORWLFXV ' DXWUHVpWXGHVHQODERUDWRLUHQRWDPPHQWVHURQWQpFHVVDLUHVSRXUFRQILUPHU O LPSRUWDQFHGHFHVIDFWHXUVHQYLURQQHPHQWDX[&HFLSRXUUDrWUHREWHQXSDUUHSURGXFWLRQGH IUDWULHVJpQpWLTXHPHQWLGHQWLTXHVGDQVGHVFRQGLWLRQVHQYLURQQHPHQWDOHVGLIIpUHQWHVG DERUG GDQV GHV FRQGLWLRQV GH VDOLQLWpV GLIIpUHQWHV SXLV GDQV GHV FRQGLWLRQV GH WHPSpUDWXUHV GLIIpUHQWHV 'HV SRSXODWLRQV QDWXUHOOHV UHVVRXUFHV JpQpWLTXHV LPSRUWDQWHV G¶ 2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXV /LQQDHXV PLVHVHQGDQJHUSDUGHVDFWLYLWpV DTXDFROHVGDQVOHEDVLQGHOD/RERLDX.HQ\D 6HSWSRSXODWLRQVRQWpWppWXGLpHVHWFRPSDUpHVWURLVSRSXODWLRQVGHVVRXUFHVG HDXFKDXGHGX EDVVLQGHODULYLqUH/RERL 7XUWOH&KHODEDHWODF%RJRULD+{WHOVSULQJV HWFHOOHVGHVODFV %DULQJR7XUNDQDHWGHODULYLqUH6XJXWDDX[TXHOOHVQRXVDYRQVDMRXWpXQHSRSXODWLRQGH 2 OHXFRVWLFWXV GXODF1DLYDVKD 150 /HVWUDYDX[RQWSRUWpVVXUOHVVpTXHQFHVG¶XQHSRUWLRQGHO¶$'1PLWRFKRQGULDO 'ORRS HW O¶DQDO\VHGXSRO\PRUSKLVPHjPLFURVDWHOOLWHV (QSUHP LHUOLHXO¶DQDO\VHGHO¶$'1PLWRFKRQGULDO DFRQILUPpFHTXH 1\LQJL HW DO DYDLHQW PRQWUp OD SRSXODWLRQ G¶ 2 QLORWLFXV GX PDUDLV GH /RERL HVW ELHQ XQH SRSXODWLRQ QDWXUHOOHGH7LODSLDGX1LOJpQpWLTXHPHQWSURFKHGHFHOOHGXODF%DULQJR/¶pWXGHGHV GHX[ QRXYHOOHV SRSXODWLRQV GHV VRXUFHV FKDXGHV GH 7XUWOH HW &KHODED VSULQJ FRQILUPH GRQF FHV UpVXOWDWV (QUHYDQFKHLODSSDUDvWFRQWUDLUHPHQWDX[UpVXOWDWVREWHQXVHQHW 1\LQJL HWDO TXHOHVSRSXODWLRQVGXPDUDLVGH/RERLVRQWFRPP HO¶pWDLWGpMjODSRSXODWLRQGXODF %DULQJRLQWURJUHVVpHVSDUGHO¶$'1PLWRFKRQGULDOGH 2OHXFRVWLFWXV ,OHVWSUREDEOHTXHFHWWHLQWURJUHVVLRQVRLWWUqVUpFHQWHHWGDWHGHO¶HQWUpHHQYLJXHXUG¶XQSODQ GHGpYHORSSHPHQWGHO¶DTXDFXOWXUHGDQVOHEDVVLQGH OD/RERLHQ /¶DQDO\VH GHV ORFXV PLFURVDWHOOLWHV D HOOH DXVVL GDQV XQ SUHPLHU WHPSV FRQILUPp OHV UpVXOWDWV GH 1\LQJL HW DO /HV SRSXODWLRQV GX PDUDLV GH OD /RERL VRQW ELHQ JpQpWLTXHPHQW RULJLQDOHV HW SURFKHV GH FHOOH GX ODF %DULQJR 8QH DQDO\VH VRPPDLUH SDU $QDO\VH)DFWRULHOOHGHV&RUUHVSRQGDQFHVXUODEDVHGHVJpQRW\SHVREVHUYpVFRPPHFHOOHTXL DYDLW pWp IDLWH SDU 1\LQJL HW DO HQ SRXUUDLW ODLVVHU SHQVHU TXH O¶LQWURJUHVVLRQ PLWRFKRQGULDOH QH V¶HVW SDV DFFRPSDJQpH G¶XQH LQWURJUHVVLRQ GH JqQHV QXFOpDLUHV 8QH DQDO\VH SOXV DWWHQWLYH XWLOLVDQW OH ORJLFLHO 6WUXFWXUH UpYqOH VDQV DPELJLWp OD SUpVHQFH G¶DOOqOHVSURYHQDQWG¶ 2OHXFRVWLFXV GDQVODSRSXODWLRQGXODF%DULQJRHWGDQVOHVWURLVVRXUFHV FKDXGHVGXPDUDLVGH/RERL 3DU FRQWUDVWH HW FRPPH LQGLFH VXSSOpPHQWDLUH GH OD UpDOLWp GH FHWWH LQWURJUHVVLRQ DXFXQ pFKDQJHGHJqQHQ¶HVWGpWHFWpDYHFOHVSRSXODWLRQVGHODULYLqUH6XJXWDHWGXODF7XUNDQD8QH DQDO\VHDYHFOHSURJUDPPH1(:+<%5,'6VXJJqUHTXHOHVLQGLYLGXVLQWURJUHVVpVVRQWGHV )LVVXVGHEDFNFURVVDYHF 2QLORWLFXV 0rPHVLO pWHQGXHGHVELRWRSHVGHVRXUFHVFKDXGHVVRQWGHSHWLWHVWDLOOHVHWSDUFRQVpTXHQW DXVVL OD WDLOOH GH OHXUV SRSXODWLRQV HIILFDFHV OD GLYHUVLWp GH O $'1PW HVW pOHYpH GDQV OHV VRXUFHVFKDXGHVDYHFSDUH[HPSOHKDSORW\SHVGLIIpUHQWVFKH]LQGLYLGXV HQGHKRUVGHV LQGLYLGXVLQWURJUHVVpV 151 &HWWHREVHUYDWLRQVHPEOHSDUDGR[DOHVLO¶RQFRQVLGqUHTXHOHVVRXUFHVFKDXGHVVHMHWWHQWGDQV XQSHWLWPDUDLVG HQYLURQNP/HPDUDLVOXLPrPHQHFRQVWLWXHSDVXQELRWRSHIDYRUDEOH j OD VXUYLH GHV SRLVVRQV FDU LO HVW HQWLqUHPHQW FRXYHUW GH PDFURSK\WHV GRQW OHV SOXV GRPLQDQWHV VRQW 7\SKD GRPLQJHQVLV HW &\SHUXV SDS\UXV 3RXU H[SOLTXHU FHWWH GLYHUVLWp PLWRFKRQGULDOHLOIDXWFRQVLGpUHUTXHFHVVRXUFHVFKDXGHVVRQWDSSURYLVLRQQpHVSDUGHVIDLOOHV HWIUDFWXUHVTXLSHUPHWWHQWjO HDXGHVDTXLIqUHVSURIRQGVGHUHPRQWHUjODVXUIDFH&HVVRXUFHV VRQWGRQFLQVHQVLEOHVDX[FKDQJHPHQWVFOLPDWLTXHVHWVDQVGRXWHVWDEOHVVXUGHWUqVORQJXHV SpULRGHV3DUDLOOHXUVLOHVWUHPDUTXDE OHG¶REVHUYHUTXHPrPHVLFHVSRSXODWLRQVVHWURXYHQW SURFKHVOHVXQHVGHVDXWUHVGHTXHOTXHVGL]DLQHVjTXHOTXHVFHQWDLQHVGHPqWUHVLOH[LVWHXQ FHUWDLQ GHJUp GH GLIIpUHQWLDWLRQ JpQpWLTXH TXL HVW SURSRUWLRQQHO j OD GLVWDQFH JpRJUDSKLTXH 3RXUH[SOLTXHUFHWWHVWUXFWXUDWLRQJpQpWLTXHLOIDXWDGPHWWUHTXHOHPDUDLVFUpHXQREVWDFOHj ODOLEUHFLUFXODWLRQGHVSRLVVRQVG XQHVRXUFHjO¶DXWUH(QHIIHWODFRQFHQWUDWLRQHQR[\JqQH GLVVRXVDXQLYHDXGXPDUDLVHVWSOXVIDLEOHTXHGDQVOHVVRXUFHVSULQFLSDOHPHQWHQUDLVRQGH ODGpFRPSRVLWLRQGHODPDWLqUHRUJDQLTXH&HWWHVLWXDWLRQDpWpGpMjGpFULWHDXQLYHDXGXODF 9LFWRULD 'HRFDPSR$VKOH\ HWDO 1RVSURSUHVREVHUYDWLRQVVRQWFRQJUXHQWHV DYHFO¶LVROHPHQWREVHUYpHQWUHG¶XQHSDUWGHVSRSXODWLR QVODFXVWUHVGH 2HVFXOHQWXV YLYDQW GDQVOHVODFVVDWHOOLWHVGXODF9LFWRULDHWG¶DXWUHVSDUWGHVSRSXODWLRQG¶ 2QLORWLFXV VpSDUpV SDUGHV]RQHVKXPLGHVFRQVWLWXpHVSDUGHPDUDLVjSDS\UXV 1\LQJL HWDO 7RXWHIRLVVLOH PDUDLV UHSUpVHQWH XQH EDUULqUH LQIUDQFKLVVDEOH SRXU OHV SRLVVRQV LO GHYLHQW DORUV GLIILFLOH G H[SOLTXHUFRPPHQW 2OHXFRVWLFWXV DSXLQWURJUHVVHU 2QLORWLFXV HQWUDYHUVDQWOHPDUDLVj SDUWLUGHVpWDQJVG¶pOHYDJHHQFRQQH[LRQDYHFODULYLqUH/RERL,OHVWSRVVLEOHELHQTXHSHX SUREDEOH TXH TXHOTX XQ DLW GLUHFWHPHQW LQWURGXLW GHV SRLVVRQV GDQV FKDTXH VRXUFH FKDXGH 0rPH VL FHWWH K\SRWKqVH QH SHXW rWUH UHMHWpH VLPSOHPHQW LO IDXW QRWHU TX¶LO Q \ D WRXW VLPSOHPHQWDXFXQHUDLVRQREMHFWLYHSRXUUpDOLVHUGHWHOOHVWUDQVORFDWLRQVGHSRLVVRQ0rPHVL OHV PRGDOLWpV SUpFLVHV SDU OHVTXHOOHV OHV SRLVVRQV RQW pWp LQWURJUHVVpV QH VRQW SDV HQFRUH FRQQXHVLOQ¶HQUHVWHSDVPRLQVTXHODUpDOLWpGHO LQWURJUHVVLRQDFODLUHPHQWpWpGpPRQWUpHHW TXHOHVDFWLYLWpVDTXDFROHVMRXHQWWUqVFHUWDLQHPHQWXQU{OHGDQVFHSURFHVVXV &HVSRSXODWLRQVHWOHVUHVVRXUFHVJpQpWLTXHVTX HOOHVUHSUpVHQWHQWGRLYHQWrWUHSUpVHUYpHV/D FRQVHUYDWLRQ HW OD JHVWLRQ GHV 0DUDLV GH OD /RERL GHYUDLHQW rWUH SULRULWDLUHV GDQV XQ SURJUDPPHGHJHVWLRQGHVUHVVRXUFHVJpQpWLTXHVGH 2QLORWLFXV 152 /HV613GXJHQHDPKOLHVDX[VH[HVVRQWGLIIpUHQWVVXLYDQWOHVSRSXODWLRQV GH7LOSLDGX1LO /D GpWHUPLQDWLRQ GX VH[H HVW OD SUpGLVSRVLWLRQ LQLWLDOH GH VRQ GpYHORSSHPHQW WDQGLV TXH OD GLIIpUHQFLDWLRQVH[XHOOHHVWOHSURFHVVXVHQDYDOTXLYDJpQpUHUOHVWHVWLFXOHVRXOHVRYDLUHV/D GpWHUPLQDWLRQ *pQpWLTXH GX VH[H '*6 TXL HVW LQGXLWH SDU XQ RX GHV JqQHV VXU OHV FKURPRVRPHV VH[XHOV HW OD GpWHUPLQDWLRQ HQYLURQQHPHQWDOH GX VH[H '(6 LPSOLTXDQW XQH VpULH GH VLJQDX[ HQYLURQQHPHQWDX[ FRPPH OD WHPSpUDWXUH RQW pYROXp GH QRPEUHXVHV IRLV HQWUHOLJQpHVGHWpOpRVWpHQV %DURLOOHU HWDO D+HXOH HWDO &KH]OHWLODSLDGX1LOODGpWHUPLQDWLRQGXVH[HHWODGLIIpUHQFLDWLRQRQWIDLWO REMHWGHORQJXHV UHFKHUFKHVHQUDLVRQGHGLPRUSKLVPHGHFURLVVDQFHHWODQpFHVVLWpGHFRQWU{OHUOHVH[HGDQVFH SULQFLSDOHVHVSqFHVDTXDFROHV/DGpWHUPLQDWLRQGXVH[HFKH]FHWWHHVSqFHHVWXQPpFDQLVPH FRPSOH[HVRXVOHFRQWU{OHGHGLYHUVIDFWHXUVTXLSHXYHQWrWUHGLYLVpVHQWURLVJURXSHV/HV IDFWHXUV JpQpWLTXHV PDMHXUV SRUWpV SDU GHV FKURPRVRPHV VH[XHOV OHV IDFWHXUV JpQpWLTXHV PLQHXUVHWOHVIDFWHXUVHQYLURQQHPHQWDX[ %DURLOOHU HWDO E %LHQTX¶LOQ¶H[LVWHSDVGH FKURPRVRPHV VH[XHOV GLIIpUHQFLpV OHV DSSURFKHV LQGLUHFWHV WHOOHV TXH OHV WHVWV GH GHVFHQGDQFH RQW GpPRQWUp TXH 2 QLORWLFXV GLVSRVH G XQ V\VWqPH SUpGRPLQDQW GH GpWHUPLQDWLRQ GX VH[H ;; ;< DORUV TXH SDU H[HPSOH VRQ HVSqFH V°XU 2 DXUHXV D XQ V\VWqPH===: %DURLOOHUHW-DODEHUW (Q XWLOLVDQW OD WHFKQLTXH GH 5$' VHTXHQFLQJ GDQV GHX[ IDPLOOHV GH OD VRXFKH 0DQ]DOOD 3DODLRNRVWDV HWDO RQWWURXYpGHX[613TXLH[SOLTXHQWGHVSKpQRW\SHVGDQVOH JURXSH GH OLDLVRQ /* &HSHQGDQW LO D pWp PRQWUp GDQV G¶DXWUHV VRXFKHV GHV LQIOXHQFHV GX JURXSHGHOLDLVRQ/*HWGHVDQDO\VHV47/RQWpJDOHPHQWLQGLTXpHVGHVOLDLVRQVDYHFOHVH[H GDQVOHJURXSH/* 3OXVLHXUVpWXGHVRQWPRQWUpTXHODWHPSpUDWXUHSHXWrWUHXQIDFWHXUGRPLQDQWSDUUDSSRUWjOD GpWHUPLQDWLRQJpQpWLTXHGXVH[H %DURLOOHU HWDO D%H]DXOW HWDO 'DQVOD VRXFKHGRPHVWLTXH%RXDNpXQHWHPSpUDWXUH!&SURYRTXHODPDVFXOLQLVDWLRQFRPSOqWH GHVIHPHOOHVJpQpWLTXHVHQPkOHV/DUpSDUWLWLRQQDWXUHOOHGXWLODSLDGX1LODPqQHFHWWHHVSqFH jVHWURXYHUGDQVGHVHDX[GRQWODWHPSpUDWXUHSHXWODUJHPHQWGpSDVVHUOHV& $XFRXUVGHQRWUHpWXGHQRXV DYRQV FKHUFKp j VDYRLUGDQV TXHOOHPHVXUHGHVSRSXODWLRQV VDXYDJHV GH WLODSLD GX 1LO YLYDQW GDQV GLIIpUHQWV UpJLPHV WKHUPLTXHV \ FRPSULV FHUWDLQHV VRXUFHVFKDXGHVSUpVHQWHQWGHVGLIIpUHQFHVVLJQLILFDWLYHVDXQLYHDXGHV613VLWXpVGDQVGHV ]RQHVFRQQXHVSRXUrWUHOLpHVjODGLIIpUHQWLDWLRQVH[XHOOH 153 3RXUFHODQRXVDYRQVpWXGLpGHV613TXLVHWURXYHQWDXQLYHDXGHVJqQHVZWEHWF\SDD TXLVRQWVLWXpVVXU/*HWDXQLYHDXGXJqQHGHO $0+VLWXpVXU/* 2Q]HSRSXODWLRQV G¶ 2QLORWLFXV RQWpWppWXGLpVQHXIVRQWGHVSRSXODWLRQVQDWXUHOOHVWDQGLV TXH GHX[ %RXDNp &{WHG ,YRLUH HW 0DQ]DOD (J\SWH VRQW GHV VRXFKHV GRPHVWLTXHV /HV SRSXODWLRQVQDWXUHOOHVGX.HQ\DpWDLHQWDXQRPEUHGHFLQTWURLVGHVVRXUFHVFKDXGHV /DNH %RJRULD+{WHO&KHODEDHW7XUWOHVSULQJ HWGHX[GHPLOLHXKDELWDWVGHWHPSpUDWXUHVWDQGDUG ODFV%DULQJRHW7XUNDQD 1RXVDYRQVpJDOHPHQWpWXGLpWURLVSRSXODWLRQVGHOD9DOOpHGX5LIW pWKLRSLHQXQG XQHVRXUFHG HDXFKDXGH ODF0HWDKDUD HWGHX[GHODFVG DOWLWXGHIURLGV +RUD HW.RND 3DUDOOqOHPHQWDX[613QRXVDYRQVDPSOLILpVSDU3&5XQHSRUWLRQGXJpQRPHTXLSHUPHWGH GLVFULPLQHUOHVLQGLYLGXV;;;<HWLQGLYLGXV<< /HUpVXOWDWOHSOXVLQWpUHVVDQWHVWTXHHQSOXVGHSUpVHQWHUOHSOXVJUDQGQRPEUHGH613OH JqQHDPKSUpVHQWHpJDOHPHQW613DYHFXQHIRUWHUHODWLRQDYHFOHVH[HSKpQRW\SLTXH0rPH VLFHVDVVRFLDWLRQVRQWpWpREVHUYpHVGDQVODSOXSDUWGHVSRSXODWLRQVpWXGLpHVGHVDVVRFLDWLRQV SOXV IRUWHV RQW pWp REVHUYpHV VXU OHV SRSXODWLRQV NHQ\DQHV $X VHLQ GH FHV SRSXODWLRQV %RJRULD&KHODED7XUWOH%DULQJRHW7XUNDQD 613RQWpWpREVHUYpVVXUOHJqQHGHO DPK TXL DYDLHQW XQH IRUWH DVVRFLDWLRQ DX VH[H SKpQRW\SLTXH / DQDO\VH GH FHV 613 LQGLTXH GHV pFDUWV LPSRUWDQWV DX[ IUpTXHQFHV DWWHQGXHV VRXV O¶K\SRWKqVH GH +DUG\ :HLQEHUJ GDQV FHUWDLQHVSRSXODWLRQV3DUH[HPSOHWURLVSRSXODWLRQV %RJRULD&KHODEDHW7XUWOH RQWPRQWUp GHVpFDUWVLPSRUWDQWVVXUDPKBWDQGLVTXHTXDWUH613 DPKBDPKBDPKB DPKB RQWGpYLpGHPDQLqUHVLJQLILFDWLYHGDQVGHX[SRSXODWLRQVFKDFXQ)DLWLQWpUHVVDQW OH613DPKB*!7SURYRTXpXQFKDQJHPHQWGHO DFLGHDPLQpDYHFGHVIHPHOOHVD\DQWOD YDULDQWH7WDQGLVTXHOHVPkOHVRQWODYDULDQWH*GHFHIDLWHQWUDLQDQWOHFKDQJHPHQWGHO DFLGH JOXWDPLTXH SDU O DFLGH DVSDUWLTXH 3DUPL OHV 613 OLpV DX VH[H GHX[ LPSOLTXHQW GHV FKDQJHPHQWV QXFOpRWLGLTXHV HQWUDvQDQW GHV FKDQJHPHQWV G DFLGHV DPLQpV TXL SRXUUDLHQW PRGLILHUGHPDQLqUHVLJQLILFDWLYHODIRQFWLRQRXO¶DFWLYLWpGHO KRUPRQHDPK/HVDXWUHV613 VRQWWRXVVLWXpVGDQVO LQWURQOHXUVU{OHVHWOHXUVLPSRUWDQFHVUHVWHQWODUJHPHQWjGpWHUPLQHU 1RVUpVXOWDWVPRQWUHQWTXHOHV613OLpVDXVH[HVRQWVSpFLILTXHVjFHUWDLQHVSRSXODWLRQVHW FHWWHREVHUYDWLRQYLHQWFRQILUPHUOHVSUpFpGHQWVUpVXOWDWV %DURLOOHU HWDO DE ,OHQ UpVXOWH TXH OD GpWHUPLQDWLRQ GX VH[H FKH] 2 QLORWLFXV GHYUDLW rWUH DQDO\VpH HQ SULRULWp DX QLYHDXSRSXODWLRQQHO 154 5HIHUHQFHV $JQqVH-)$GHSR*RXUq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± (NQDWK $ ( DQG $FRVWD % *HQHWLF LPSURYHPHQW RI IDUPHG WLODSLD SURMHFW )LQDO UHSRUW ,&/$500DQLOD (NQDWK$(0DQDJLQJDTXDWLFJHQHWLFUHVRXUFHV0DQDJHPHQWH[DPSOH7KH1LOH WLODSLD,Q7KRUSH-*DOO*/DQQDQ-1DVK& HGV &RQVHUYDWLRQRIILVKDQGVKHOOILVK UHVRXUFHV0DQDJLQJGLYHUVLW\$FDGHPLF3UHVV/RQGRQSS )LUPDW & +\EULGDWLRQ HW JRXORWV G¶pWUDQJOHPHQW LQGXLWV SDU O¶DFWLYLWp KXPDLQH JpQpWLTXH GHV SRSXODWLRQV PRUSKRPpWULH HW SDUDVLWRORJLH DSSOLTXpH DX WLODSLD HQYDKLW HW HQYDKLVHVVDQW 2UHRFKURPLV PRVVDPELFXV 7HOHRVWHL &LFKOLGDH 8QLYHUVLWp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|KQH $ *HQHWLFV RI VH[XDO GHYHORSPHQW DQ HYROXWLRQDU\ SOD\JURXQGIRUILVK*HQHWLFV +RSVRQ$- /DNH7XUNDQD$UHSRUWRQWKHILQGLQJVRIWKH/DNH7XUNDQD3URMHFW 9RO2YHUVHDV'HYHORSPHQW$GPLQLVWUDWLRQ/RQGRQ3S .HUVFKEDXPHU0.DQG6WXUPEDXHU&7KHXWLOLW\RIJHRPHWULFPRUSKRPHWULFVWR HOXFLGDWHSDWKZD\VRIFLFKOLGVRIFLFKOLGHYROXWLRQ ,QW-(YRO%LRO $UWLFOH,'SS 156 1GLZD&71\QJL'DQG$JQqVH-)$QLPSRUWDQWQDWXUDOJHQHWLFUHVRXUFHRI 2UHRFKURPLV QLORWLFXV /LQQDHXV WKUHDWHQHG E\ DTXDFXOWXUH DFWLYLWLHV LQ /RERL GUDLQDJH.HQ\D3OR621( H 1\LQJL ' 'H9RV / $PDQ 5 DQG $JQq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± 5RKOI)-0DUFXV/)$UHYROXWLRQLQPRUSKRPHWULFV 7UHQGV(FRO(YRO ± 5RKOI)- WSV'LJGLJLWL]HODQGPDUNVDQGRXWOLQHVYHUVLRQ 'HSDUWPHQWRI(FRORJ\ DQG(YROXWLRQ6WDWH8QLYHUVLW\RI1HZ 157