The Center-Left Bloc is an Illusion
Expert on Israeli public opinion sees a center-left government being just as unstable as a national unity government.
By Gedalyah Reback First Publish: 3/16/2015, 10:35 PM / Last Update: 3/16/2015, 10:42 PM
Right-wing voters fear a left-center coalition could be the harbinger of major reversals in security or the establishment of a Palestinian state. This assumes though that a left- center coalition would be any more stable than a national unity government.
According to Olena Bagno-Moldavsky of the Institute of National Security Studies (INSS) and researcher at the University of Toronto, it is not just that there is a myth of left-right dichotomy, but that Israeli centrists themselves tend to lean more to the right than people often assume.
“We have a center that leans to the right,” Ms. Bagno-Moldavsky stated, in an interview with Arutz Sheva. “Even though the media is to the left and influences undecided voters, the majority are actually to the center-right.”
In the last two elections, undecided voters went for centrist parties on Election Day. In 2009, Kadima had been polling around 23 seats but ended up winning 28. In 2013, Yesh Atid was floating between 13 and 14 when it shocked everyone with 19 in the final tallies. But if one considers the possibility voters would prefer a centrist slate that leans to the right, which would favor another centrist contender.
“Last time it was Yesh Atid," she noted. "This time it will most probably be Kulanu. The problem comes in when these parties need to stay above the surface.”
Center vs. Left on the Palestinians
If the Zionist Camp does get the first crack at forming a government, the “ideological issues will come to the surface,” Bagno-Moldavsky said. “It really all depends on the numbers that the actual left (Zionist Camp and Meretz) will be able to get, but this coalition won’t be stable or long-living. They would also have to overcome major ideological gaps.”
She emphasizes that the Zionist Union [Labor-Hatnua - ed.] is trying to capitalize on similar socioeconomic issues that the centrist parties are raising, but that ultimately there will be a clash. Assuming that Yitzhak Herzog is in a cabinet with Yair Lapid and especially Moshe Kahlon, Buji will have issues. A major dividing point might come in the guise of how aggressive Tzipi Livni is on pursuing negotiations with the Palestinians.
Even though there is word that Kulanu leader Moshe Kahlon is more willing than in the past to make concessions to the Palestinian Authority (PA), he is still emphatic there is no real partner for peace right now that would justify dividing Jerusalem.
Kulanu released a statement in December responding to Palestinian moves at the International Criminal Court (ICC) that stated, “Anyone who still thinks that a move like this is in order to promote a peaceful settlement that includes an end to the conflict or future legal actions, and will include recognition of a Jewish and democratic state, is just deluding himself.”
Even Yesh Atid has been extremely critical of Mahmoud Abbas. "Abbas is not a friend, Abbas is the rival, and the battle against the rival happens in many fronts," said Yesh Atid’s Ofer Shelah last summer.
MK Dov Lipman wrote last year in a piece in the Washington Jewish Week that, “It has become very clear that P.A. President Mahmoud Abbas does not have the courage or ability to make the compromises that we, in Israel, require in order to provide for our security as we try to separate from the Palestinians.”
The Center’s Survival
“Livni is not so popular among the center of the center-right," Bagno-Moldavsky added. Right now, Buji presents this better and untested face for the left. He is enjoying this sort of lack of a lingering legacy of things attributed to her as old failures or what are perceived as her failures.”
“They tend to fade away like the first incarnation of Shinui under Yair Lapid’s father, the party that introduced this phenomenon (of centrist parties).”
Yesh Atid and Kulanu will be aching to join the government in order to keep building the viability of their parties. So far, Israeli centrist movements have collapsed in epic fashion. The original Shinui party is just one example. Kadima is the best, where as they captured 29 seats in 2006 and 28 in 2009, the party split between the more leftist Hatnua and a two-seat performance led by General Shaul Mofaz in the last election. Neither party effectively exists at this point.
There is a danger the two parties might be competing with the Haredi factions to join a coalition government.
“What is most important for the centrist parties here, maybe even more so for Kulanu, is to actually be in the government,” said Bagno-Moldavsky. “Once they are in the opposition the chances are that they will simply disappear. They might not survive otherwise.” http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/192725#.VQk6EeFRLES