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China Resources Beer Version 4 | Bloomberg: 291 HK EQUITY| Reuters: 0291.HK Refer to Important Disclosures at the End of This Report

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China Resources Beer Version 4 | Bloomberg: 291 HK EQUITY| Reuters: 0291.HK Refer to Important Disclosures at the End of This Report China / Hong Kong Company Guide China Resources Beer Version 4 | Bloomberg: 291 HK EQUITY| Reuters: 0291.HK Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 3 Apr 2018 BUY Move up a gear Last Traded Price( 29 Mar 2018):HK$34.00(HSI : 30,093) Mid-to high-end products to reach 50% of sales. We continue to see CR Price Target 12-mth:HK$39.05 (15% upside) (Prev HK$36.80) Beer’s effort to tap into the mid-to high-end market and boost A nalyst Vincent YANG +852 28204918 [email protected] profitability. According to channel checks, the company has ramped up Mavis HUI +852 2863 8879 [email protected] its high-end “Opera Mask” product series to double the sales volume What’s New since July FY17, and launched its new flagship product – “SuperX” to Product mix enhancement in multiple fronts is catch attention of young customers. Overall, we estimate that the paying off company could further improve product-mix of its mass: mid-to high-end products to 50:50 by FY20, versus 61:39 in FY17. Management also Ongoing capacity and packaging revamp also targets to capture a similar market share in the premium segment as raises EBITDA margins compared to major foreign players in five years. Estimated core earnings CAGR of 24.5% for FY17- 20 has yet to include potential M&As that could Upcoming optimization plans, in our view. At present, on average, c.54% happen earliest this year capacity of its production has been utilized. CR Beer targets to further shore up its utilization level via consolidating dispersed capacity to create Price Relative mega plants. As such, more closures of inefficient plants will be expected. HK$ Relative Index While the company has not revealed its plans, our in-depth studies via 36.1 249 31.1 199 comparing regional industry data suggest further capacity cuts in Tianjin, 26.1 21.1 149 Shanxi, Liaoning, Sichuan and Anhui. Coupled with ample room to shift 16.1 99 11.1 towards canned beer production, we estimate core EBIT margin to reach 6.1 49 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 c.13% by FY20 (FY17:8.7%). China Resources Beer (LHS) Relative HSI (RHS) Potential M&A targets. We understand that CR Beer is proactively seeking Forecasts and Valuation FY Dec (RMBm) 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F potential targets to strengthen its regional presence and premiumization, Turnover 29,732 32,348 34,297 36,342 including possibility to acquire a renowned brand in FY18. This should EBITDA 3,650 4,591 5,423 6,376 further increase its market share and raise its profile and branding in Pre-tax Profit 1,816 2,855 3,695 4,645 Net Profit 1,175 1,950 2,524 3,173 China. We try to gauge financial performance and enterprise value across Est. Core profit * 1,914 2,685 3,037 3,694 major foreign brands operating in China, and we currently expect its EPS (RMB) 0.36 0.60 0.78 0.98 rumored target of Heineken’s China business could involve at least EPS (HK$) 0.45 0.75 0.97 1.22 Core EPS (HK$) * 0.74 1.03 1.17 1.42 c.RMB5bn deal size, while other brands like Kirin and Molson Coors Core EPS (RMB) * 0.59 0.83 0.94 1.14 could be relatively more affordable options too. EPS Gth (%) 65.5 66.0 29.4 25.7 Core EPS Gth (%) * 55.1 40.3 13.1 21.6 Valuation: DPS (HK$) 0.17 0.30 0.39 0.49 Lifted EBITDA CAGR (FY17-19) from 18% to 22% due to better operating BV Per Share (HK$) 7.08 7.65 8.31 9.13 efficiency assumption. Our TP of HK$39.05 continues to base on 19x PE (X) 75.2 45.3 35.0 27.9 FY19F EV/EBITDA, similar to 1 S.D. above AB InBev’s 3-year average given CorePE (X) * 46.2 32.9 29.1 23.9 CR Beer’s relatively faster growth and margin enhancement potentials. P/Cash Flow (X) 22.2 19.6 19.0 16.6 Core earnings revised down 8% for both FY18/19, due to higher tax rate P/Free CF (X) 36.2 38.5 33.5 25.3 assumption. EV/EBITDA (X) 24.5 19.0 15.7 12.9 Net Div Yield (%) 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.4 Key Risks to Our View: P/Book Value (X) 4.8 4.4 4.1 3.7 Lower-than-expected ASP hikes; sales volume decline due to weather or Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.1 CASH CASH CASH market share changes; rising competition in the high-end segment. ROAE(%) 6.5 10.2 12.2 14.0 (*Excluded impairment losses from plant closures At A Glance #Excluded shortfall of previously assumed impairment losses vs. new Issued Capital (m shs) 3,244 assumptions) Total Mkt. Cap (HK$m/US$m) 110,302 / 14,051 Core earnings Rev (%) # (8) (8) New Major Shareholders Consensus EPS (RMB) 0.660 0.833 1.032 China Resources (Holdings) (%) 51.9 Consensus EBITDA (RMBm) 4,686 5,388 6,348 Hillhouse Capital Mgmt. Ltd. (%) 6.0 Other Broker Recs: B: 12 S: 4 H: 4 Gaoling Fund, L.P. (%) 5.2 Source of all data on this page: Company, DBSV, Thomson Reuters, HKEX H Shares-Free Float (%) 100.0 3m Avg. Daily Val. (US$m) 27.4 I CB Industry :Consumer Goods / Beverages sa- CS /DL Company Guide China Resources Beer WHAT’S NEW good moves of the company, especially to grab attention of (1) Upgrade in multiple fronts young customers, improve product-mix and enhance its sales in the premium segment, thanks to better and refreshed New SKU targeting at young customers. In Nov 2017, CR Beer packaging design and more importantly, attractive changed design of its major brand “Snow” and updated a promotional strategies. To our belief, CR Beer might continue series of its existing products, with retail price lifted for more to launch new high-end products this year to further than 30%, as shown in the table below. Recently, it also rolled strengthen its brand profile. The company might introduce out its new flagship product - SuperX, under its umbrella new products with one-piece aluminum can packaging, as we brand, “Brave the World” (勇闯天涯), priced at RMB8-9 per already saw remarkable sales performance of premium beer unit (500mL) within the premium range. We view these as with this kind of packaging as presented below, according to channel checks. New SKU – SuperX and its brand ambassador New packaging might boost sales Source: Company Source: Corporate websites Beer price hike summary Retail Price as Retail Price as Volume Package CR Beer of 1 Jan 2017 of 26 Mar 2018 change % (ml)/unit unit (RMB/unit) (RMB/unit) Snow Premium (冰酷) 330 24 1.83 1.91 4.4% 330 24 2.04 2.25 10.3% Snow Refreshing (清爽) 500 12 3.25 3.33 2.5% 330 24 3.58 3.63 1.3% Snow - Brave the World Series (勇闯天涯) 330 6 4.15 4.67 12.5% 500 12 4.50 4.50 0.0% c. 33.3% price Snow - New Brave the World (勇闯天涯 500 12 6.00 n.a. increase after new 概念系列) Debut in Nov 2017 series debut 330 24 5.38 6.00 11.6% Snow Draft Beer (纯生) 500 12 7.16 7.25 1.3% c. 38% price increase Snow New Draft Beer (纯生 概念系列) after new series 500 12 n.a 10.00 n.a. Debut in Nov 2017 debut Snow Opera Mask (脸谱) 500 12 n.a 15.00 n.a. Source: JD, DBS Vickers Page 2 Company Guide China Resources Beer More attractive promotional strategies. CR Beer adopts a +0.5ppt market share gain (in terms of sales volume) and No. young customer oriented marketing strategy, as we can see 1 ranking as the most popular beverage brand among Chinese that the company spent more than RMB200m for the title young customers in 2016, according to BRANDZ. sponsorship of an online blockbuster talent show in China (“明 We also use Baidu’s search index as an influence proxy to 日之子”). To our understanding, this show received c.4.2bn understand the interest level of beer brands among customers. viewership in 2017, ranking No.1 among all the online shows, We see a clear trend of CR Beer’s improving brand and c.38% of the audiences are aged between 16 and 20, attractiveness, especially in the mobile channel, which is according to a report from Weibo. CR Beer is also building majorly dominated by young generation. This is further close association between its brands and young popular supported by the user portrait across different age groups singers, e.g. the company had just hired Jackson Wang (王嘉 empowered by Baidu’s search analysis, which indicates CR Beer’s increasing popularity among young customers aged 尔) as its brand ambassador for its flagship product “SuperX”. under 40. The brand perception improvement might be partly Wang currently has 8m and 9m followers on Weibo and attributable to CEO Mr. Hou Xiaohai’s forward-looking Instagram respectively as of Mar 2018, and he is doomed to promotional strategies and good execution, given his rich gain more popularity via the hot dancing talent show (“热血街 experience in the marketing field. On a separate note, he is 舞团”) in China, whose advertisement we believe could help also the key man contributing to the popularity of Snow’s support CR Beer’s sales volume in the upcoming summer.
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