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China's Intentions

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China's Intentions Dealing with China in a Globalized World: Some Concerns and Considerations Published by Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. 2020 5/F Cambridge Center Bldg., 108 Tordesillas cor. Gallardo Sts., Salcedo Village, Makati City 1227 Philippines www.kas.de/philippines [email protected] Cover page image, design, and typesetting by Kriselle de Leon Printed in the Philippines Printed with fnancial support from the German Federal Government. © Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V., 2020 The views expressed in the contributions to this publication are those of the individual authors and do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of Konrad- Adenauer-Stiftung or of the organizations with which the authors are afliated. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission. Edited by Marie Antoinette P. de Jesus eISBN: 978-621-96332-1-5 In Memory of Dr. Aileen San Pablo Baviera Table of contents i Foreword • Stefan Jost 7 1 Globality and Its Adversaries in the 21st Century • Xuewu Gu 9 Globality: A new epochal phenomenon of the 21st century 9 Understanding the conditional and spatial referentiality of globality 11 Globality and its local origins 12 Is globality measurable? 13 Dangerous adversaries of globality 15 Conclusion 18 2 China’s Intentions: A Historical Perspective • Kerry Brown 23 Getting the parameters right: What China are we talking about and in which way? 23 Contrasting intentions: China before and after 1978 25 China’s intentions in the Maoist era 26 China since 1978: All change? 29 China’s intentions under Xi Jinping 32 China’s intentions: The point of unity between the Maoist and Xi eras 36 3 A Balanced Foreign Policy for Thailand? Readjusting Arms Deals between China and the USA • Paul Chambers 39 Siamese/Thai foreign policy (1851-1947) 40 Early cold war Thai foreign policy (1947-1973) 41 Moving toward omnidirectionality (1973-1980) 42 Resurrection of close Thai-US ties (1980-1992) 43 Omnidirectionality again (1992-2001) 44 Thaksin Shinawatra: A more proactive foreign policy (2001-2006) 45 From coup to coup (2006-2014) 46 Thai foreign policy and strategic balancing since 2014 48 Conclusion 52 Appendix: Major Arms Transfers to Thailand by Country (1930-2020) 56 4 China’s Expanding Military Power in Africa • Miwa Hirono 71 China’s evolving military presence in Africa 73 The features of China’s military presence in Africa 75 Conclusion 80 5 China’s 5G Network Development: A Security Concern? • Ewan Lawson 87 Context 88 5G and technology 88 Risks and threats 90 Huawei: The concerns 91 Responses & actions 92 Conclusion 94 6 Benefts and Costs of the Philippines’ Paradigm Shift to China • Rommel Banlaoi 99 Duterte’s paradigm shift to China 99 Benefts of friendly ties with China 101 Economic benefts: Increased trade, investments and economic assistance from China 102 Benefts from Chinese tourism and other business activities 104 Political and strategic benefts: Calming the security situation in the SCS 106 Costs of friendship 108 Conclusion 114 ii Author Profles 123 7 Foreword Foreword Stefan Jost Dear Friends of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) Philippines, It is with great pleasure to be able to present this new publication with you. This comprises the various topics that were conferred in our recently held international conference, entitled “Changing the World Order? China’s Long-Term Global Strategy”.1 We live in a world of constant change. This simple statement has set the series of developments throughout the years to a common denominator. However, this statement has also hidden the reality of the drama behind the actual situation. Long-standing and preserved structures have emerged. Hence, there is one thing certain: changed or are in the process of changing. every participant in international politics, Instabilities have increased. International be it in the context of global economic crises and challenges have emerged to which development; the question of how regional individual nations are incapable of solving peace and global security should be by themselves. I will mention the keywords: structured; the question of how to shape migration, climate change, and terrorism. international cooperation; or even the question of how the powers and principles We experience day-to-day changes in work in the so-called New World Order; each the international system in terms of its and every one will have to deal with China. conceptual and institutional foundations. Given the current circumstances, the We should however note that worldwide questions of how the international debates on China’s developments are community reacts towards the rapid characterized by disillusioned hopes change; how relevant actors approach and expectations. Over the years, there the situation; and how they evaluate was an anticipation that through China’s their perspectives towards the economic development, the country development are of much signifcance. would strive towards democracy. Unfortunately, this has not occurred. In the past years, we have seen without any doubt that China has been one of the In Europe, as well as in other countries, the actors whose role in the global arena has perception has changed. This is evident 7 Foreword through the analyses made by scientifc It is signifcant to understand China’s institutions, the press, and political debates. decision-making process, its strategies, Even the policy brief of the European Union its policies, and what other countries last March 2019, “EU-China: A strategic should expect from their development. outlook”, has evidently shown the change in perspectives and assessment towards This is not just a matter of depicting the China. For the European Union, China is gathered information in black and white. It considered both a “cooperation partner, a is more of putting an emphasis on a clear negotiating partner, an economic competitor, and realistic assessment of the current but also a systemic rival promoting situation. This, in return, will become the alternative models of governance”. foundation for a political evaluation to which we can derive political approaches. The message set here is clear. It is no longer economic competition but rather a I am persuaded by the fact that the various political one. This is without a question a articles encompassed in this publication will new dimension, which can be connected not only contribute to discussions among to China’s 2049 goal. The centenary of the experts, but concurrently a signifcant founding of the People’s Republic of China benefactor to public discussion. in 2049, at which point China will have become a “strong, democratic, civilized, I would like to express my sincerest harmonious, and modern socialist country”. gratitude to Ms. Tonette De Jesus, Senior Program Manager of KAS Philippines, who China’s increasing powers should be taken exerted exemplary eforts in organizing seriously. It requires intensive study and both the conference and this publication. analysis in all aspects to enable us to understand and assess its development. I hope you enjoy your reading! Prof. Dr. Stefan Jost Country Director Konrad Adenauer Stiftung Philippines 1 This conference was made possible through KAS Philippines’ partnership with the Asia Pacifc Pathways to Progress Foundation, Inc. (APPFI), the Asian Institute of Management Rizalino S. Navarro Policy Center for Competitiveness (AIM RSN PCC), and the De La Salle University Southeast Asian Research Center and Hub (DLSU-SEARCH). 8 Globality and Its Adversaries in the 21st Century Globality and Its Adversaries in the 21st Century Xuewu Gu Academic and societal discourse has witnessed a growing trend to diferentiate between three core terms of the 21st century: globalization, globalism and globality (Schäfer, 2007). While globalization and globalism are understood as a process and an ideology (or ideational perspective) respectively, globality is conceived as a condition. Despite this analytical distinction, the three concepts share common ontological points of reference and even awareness: the global-spatial dimension of human (co-)existence is not only continuously increasing on the whole, but also on multiple levels, with local, national and regional levels becoming ever more global. However, the three concepts of globalization, discussed. Already on 23 April 2007, Wolf globalism and globality do not receive the Schäfer conducted a Google-search of these same amount of attention, whether in three terms that produced the following society at large or in academia. Instead, results: 88,400 hits for globalization, 5,920 there is a substantial asymmetry with for globalism and 2,460 for globality (p. 7). respect to how frequently the three key More than thirteen years later, I conducted terms are used within globalization debates. the same search on February 8, 2020, only Academic literature, government documents to confrm that, while the absolute number and media reports concerned with of hits for each of the three terms had ‘globalization’ by far exceed those dealing increased drastically, a large asymmetry with globalism and globality. Moreover, in the frequency of usage persists: usage of the term globality in particular 62,800,000 for globalization, 2,870,000 remains far behind its sister concepts. for globalism and 731,000 for globality. This imbalance has been previously Globality: A new epochal phenomenon of the 21st century Schäfer afrmed Martin Albrow’s attempt Age in light of the waves of worldwide to draw a semantic parallelism between liberalization of international trade under modernity and globality. The latter US President Bill Clinton: “Globality is to postulated the emergence of a Global the global, the Global Age and globalism as 8 9 Globality and Its Adversaries in the 21st Century modernity is to the modern, the Modern Age Nevertheless, frst, the discovery of this and modernism – at least grammatically” market process, in which originally locally (Albrow, 1997, p.
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