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China's Non-Intervention in Sudan and South Sudan: Finding Traces Of China’s Non-Intervention in Sudan and South Sudan: Finding Traces of Remote Warfare Master Thesis Rick Tenhaven|6521576 02.08.2019 A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE BOARD OF EXAMINERS IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS OF THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS IN CONFLICT STUDIES & HUMAN RIGHTS NAME OF SUPERVISOR: DR LAUREN GOULD DATE OF SUBMISSION: 2. AUGUST 2019 PROGRAM TRAJECTORY: RESEARCH AND THESIS WRITING (30 ECTS) WORD COUNT: 26.852 i ABSTRACT CHINA’S REMOTE INTERVENTION STRATEGY Remote Warfare facilitates the minimisation of risks when intervening in complex conflict theatres through intricate and liquid warfare tactics. The emergence of new military strategies constantly alters the way in which remote warfare is employed. Therefore, contemporary scholarship still seeks to grasp the functions of these warfare strategies. This thesis develops a hybrid framework based on the alliance theory and the political economy of conflict to identify the strategies and functions of non-Western approaches to remote warfare. By applying this framework to the case of China’s remote intervention in Sudan and South Sudan from 2005 to 2018, Chi- nese remote intervention strategies and their inherent functions are discovered. The study investigates Sino-Sudanese interactions in empirical reports to uncover their underlying dynam- ics. The findings demonstrate that China innovatively learned to adapt its remote strategy for realising its changing ambitions in the shifting conflicts in the Sudans. Moreover, this strategy is determined to function for securing China’s oil investments, while diminishing its footprint in the Sudans to not contradict the Chinese non-intervention policy. Finally, China’s strategy is revealed to deliberately support human rights abuses to create a hostile investment environment for the West. After first providing massive armaments to the Sudans, China later placed substantial investments to monopolise themselves as the primary customer of the Sudanese oil production. Consequently, this thesis explains how and why China procedurally devel- oped its own approach for non-direct intervention to secure its access to oil in Sudan and South Sudan. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Before I start engaging in conflict strategies and functionalities, I want to acknowledge a much less perilous aspect that I was allowed to witness in this study: unconditional support. This project means a lot to me and especially because I am aware of conflicts not being the most uplifting topic to indulge in, I wholeheartedly thank everyone that took the time to help me realise this thesis. First, I’d like to thank Dr Lauren Gould, who encouraged me with her pioneering work and expansive knowledge about the contemporary study of remote warfare. It was a privilege to work under your mentor- ship, as your feedback was always amazingly straight to the point and exactly what I needed to progress. Also, I would like to give my highest gratitude to Dr Daniel Large who, despite being professionally oc- cupied, took the time for having a wonderfully inspiring chat about Sino-Sudanese relations with me. Even though I already thanked them thoroughly, I want to highlight the role of Nico, Hans Werner as well as all my eager proof-readers, feedback-givers and spell-checkers. It has been fun to receive your thoughts about my work and it helped me to polish this thesis off. My parents and my sister have brightened, heartened and comforted me during this study through their unconditional, perennial and all-embracing support. No word of thanks would suffice to address my recog- nition for your efforts. For being my motivation, my strength as well as for her enthusiasm and creativity I dearly thank Ariane. FINALLY, I WANT TO THANK EVERYONE THAT TAKES INTEREST IN READING MY THOUGHTS. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 1 2. Literature Review .................................................................................................................................. 2 2.1. Remote warfare ....................................................................................................................................................... 2 2.2. The missing perspective ......................................................................................................................................... 4 3. Theory ................................................................................................................................................... 5 3.1. Alliance Theory & The Functions of Conflicts ................................................................................................. 5 3.2. Developing an Operational Theoretical Framework ........................................................................................ 8 4. Method ................................................................................................................................................ 12 4.1. Research Design .................................................................................................................................................... 12 4.2. Data Collection...................................................................................................................................................... 13 5. The Context of China’s intervention in the Sudans ............................................................................ 17 5.1. International & Local Gains in China’s Intervention ..................................................................................... 18 5.2. Relevant Local Cleavages & China’s Risks ....................................................................................................... 19 5.3. The Master Cleavage & China’s Opposition .................................................................................................... 21 6. China’s Remote Intervention Strategy ................................................................................................ 23 6.1. The Post-CPA Period 2005-2010 ....................................................................................................................... 23 6.2. South Sudanese Independence 2011-2013 ....................................................................................................... 25 6.3. The South Sudanese Civil War 2014-2018........................................................................................................ 27 6.4. China’s Intervention Strategy in the Sudans ..................................................................................................... 30 7. The Political Economy of China’s Strategy ........................................................................................ 34 7.1. Local & International Functions ........................................................................................................................ 34 7.2. Limiting the Exposure to Risks .......................................................................................................................... 36 7.3. Weakening the Opposition.................................................................................................................................. 39 7.4. The Functions of China’s Remote Intervention .............................................................................................. 41 8. Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................... 42 9. References ........................................................................................................................................... 44 9.1. Academic Sources ................................................................................................................................................. 44 9.2. Reports and Empirical Sources .......................................................................................................................... 49 10. Appendices .......................................................................................................................................... 56 10.1. Appendix 1. Interview........................................................................................................................................ 56 10.2. Appendix 2. Timeline of Events in the Sudans 2005-2018 ......................................................................... 56 10.3. Appendix 3. Categories and Codes .................................................................................................................. 58 iv LIST OF FIGURES & ABBREVIATIONS LIST OF FIGURES 1. Visualisation of Theoretical Framework. Based on Kalyvas 2006 & Keen 2008; Own creation. ............ 8 2. Data collection. Source: Own creation. .................................................................................................. 12 3. Compass with source selection criteria. Source: Own creation. ............................................................. 13 4. Documents in the dataset displayed by type. Source: Own creation. ..................................................... 14 5. Codebooks. Source: Own creation. ......................................................................................................... 15 6. Overview of the data catalogue created with Codebook 1. Source: Own creation. ...............................
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