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Boyd's Big Ideas 11-2017 The Essence of Strategy: Patterns of Conflict and Beyond Chet Richards November 2017 Retired Observe, orient, decide, act: words to live or die by. Right now, Persephone is disoriented — on the run, cut off. It’s time to go on the offensive, work out where she is and what’s going on, then get the hell out of this trap. Charles Stross, The Apocalypse Codex, p. 160 ButBut first,first, adviceadvice fromfrom ourour guruguru Good advice for our times You should not be You should not be convinced by: convinced by: • unconfirmed reports • logical reasoning • tradition • delighting in opinions • hearsay and speculation • scriptures • the appearance of plausibility • reflection on superficial • or because you think, appearances This person is our teacher. You should not be You should not be convinced by: convinced by: • unconfirmed reports • logical reasoning • tradition • delighting in opinions • hearsay Oops, sorry.and speculation • scriptures • the appearance of plausibility • reflection on Wrong guru superficial • or because you think, appearances This person is our teacher. That was a lot older than Boyd From the Kalama Sutta c. 400 BCE This is Boyd’s advice • Don’t be a member of Clausewitz’s school, because a lot has happened since 1832. • Don’t be a member of Sun Tzu’s school because an awful lot has happened since 500 BCE. • And if you’re going to regard my stuff as some kind of gospel or dogma … This is Boyd’s advice • And if you’re going to regard my stuff as some kind of gospel or dogma, stop. Take it out and burn it. Now. • Instead, gather interesting thoughts from a variety of sources and disciplines, then BE YOUR OWN GURU! Our journey begins: Somewhere in China, around 400 BCE "War was to be preceded by measures designed to make it easy to win … Only when the enemy could not be overcome by these measures was there recourse to armed force," Somewhere in China, around 400 BCE which was to be applied so that victory was gained: a) in the shortest possible time; b) at the least possible cost in lives and effort; c) with the infliction on the enemy of the fewest possible casualties (Griffith's Commentary on Sun Tzu) Using Sun Tzu A useful framework for bringing Sun Tzu into the modern era was developed by John Boyd (1927 – 1997) – Instructor fighter pilot at the USAF Fighter Weapons School – Creator of "energy - maneuverability" / "father" of F-15, F-16, F-18 Energy-Maneuverability Big Engines Mathematically, T - D P = • S s W • Energy level: 30,000 ft • F-4E (LES) (U) 9/74 • 4 AIM-7E .5 nm • Maximum power 1 nm 16 -4G 12 2 nm 0G 8 2G Big Wings 4G 4 Turn rate (deg/sec) rate Turn .2 .4 .6 .8 .1.0 .1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 Mach (airspeed) Using Sun Tzu A useful framework for bringing Sun Tzu into the modern era was developed by John Boyd (1927 – 1997) – Instructor fighter pilot at the USAF Fighter Weapons School – Creator of "energy - maneuverability" / "father" of F-15, F-16, F-18 – A Discourse on Winning and Losing (1976-1997) – Foundation of USMC doctrine – Embraced by US special operations forces – Finding wider application to business, sports, politics, etc. Who was John Boyd? Product Date Slides Words Words/Slide New Conception 8/1976 24 825 34 for Air-Air Combat Destruction & 9/1976 — 3,900 — Creation Patterns of 12/1986 185 21,000 113.5 Conflict Organic Design 5/1987 37 3,400 92 for Command & Control Strategic Game 6/1987 59 4,700 80 of ? and ? Conceptual 8/1992 38 2,900 76 Spiral The Essence of 1/1996 4 350 87.5 Winning and Losing Total 347 37,075 96 Theory and History Science & Eastern of Conflict Math Philosophy Theory of Evolution by Taoism Alexander; Sun Tzu Natural Selection Belisarius Genghis Khan Neuroscience & Gustavus II genetics Clausewitz & Adolphus; Psychology, Zen Science Frederick the Napoleon Jomini & Math Anthropology, Great Sociology Impact of Lenin Soviet Samurai Technology Complexity; self- Entropy, Revolutionary Lawrence; organization Adaptations Strategy (Musashi, Heisenberg, Lettow- Takuan, Gödel Blitzkrieg Vorbeck; Mao Dissipative Cleary, etc.) Guerrilla Structures Manstein, (Prigogine) Epistemology: Warfare Ohno, Kuhn, Polanyi, Personal Ludendorff, Toyota Popper, etc. Experience: Air- Guderian, Fuller, Gödel, Production Air Combat, etc. etc. Lowenheim & Skolem, System Tarski, Church, Turing, Shannon, Chaitin • Operating Inside OODA loops We cannot determine the character or • Harmonizing Tactics, Operations, Strategy, and Interaction & Final Version of OODA Loop nature of a system within itself, and Grand Strategy to Achieve National Goal Isolation attempts to do so will produce Conceptual spiral confusion and disorder. • Attrition Warfare; Maneuver & Moral Conflict Leadership & of insight, Appreciation imagination, and 1976 • Theme for Vitality & Growth: IOHAI initiative 1976-1986 1987 1992 1996 © Chet Richards 2013; reproduction encouraged Version 5: 9 July 2013 Boyd’s Big Ideas We can sort Boyd’s concepts into categories regarding: – What you do with opponents: Operate inside their OODA loops – What you do with your own organization: Create a climate / culture that makes it possible for you to operate inside opponent’s OODA loops (EBFAS) – What you do with allies and the uncommitted: Grand strategy – How you learn and operate: The OODA “loop” itself First Big Idea Operating inside their OODA loops Where he got the idea He noticed something fundamentally the same about the following 3 cases: Fighter aircraft ▪ F-86 vs. MiG-15 (1951-53); YF-16 vs YF-17 (1974) Special operation ▪ The Entebbe raid by Israel (1976) Mental state ▪ Blitzkrieg vs.Maginot Line mentality (1940) Message Note – the blue background indicates Boyd’s original charts. All are from Patterns of Conflict unless another briefing is cited. Note original page numbers in bottom right corner. He who can handle the quickest rate of change survives. New Conception for Air-Air Combat, 24 Quick rates of change — “Fast transients” as they appeared in Patterns of Conflict ▪ Idea of fast transients suggests that, in order to win, we should operate at a faster tempo or rhythm than our adversaries—or, better yet, get inside adversary’s observation-orientation-decision-action time cycle or loop. ▪ Why? Such activity will make us appear ambiguous (unpredictable) thereby generate confusion and disorder among our adversaries—since our adversaries will be unable to generate mental images or pictures that agree with the menacing as well as faster transient rhythm or patterns they are competing against. 5 In other words, Boyd is claiming that Operating inside Is this true? Does it their OODA agree with your loops experience? Ambiguity Panic, Plus Confusion & MENACE Disorder Boyd’s take on Sun Tzu’s Fundamental concepts Theme Strategy ▪ Harmony and trust ▪ Probe enemy’s organization and dispositions to unmask his ▪ Justice and well being strengths, weaknesses, patterns ▪ Inscrutability and enigma of movement and intentions. ▪ Deception and subversion ▪ “Shape” enemy’s perception of world to manipulate his plans and ▪ Rapidity and fluidity actions. ▪ Dispersion and concentration ▪ Attack enemy’s plans as best ▪ Surprise and shock policy. Next best disrupt his alliances. Next best attack his Desired outcome army. Attack cities only when • Subdue enemy there is no alternative. without fighting ▪ Employ cheng and ch'i maneuvers • Avoid protracted war to quickly and unexpectedly hurl strength against weaknesses. 13 Historical pattern Early commanders Impression • Alexander • Early commanders seem consistent with ideas of • Hannibal Sun Tzu • Belisarius • Western commanders • Genghis Khan more directly concerned with winning the battle • Tamerlane • Eastern commanders closer to Sun Tzu in attempting to shatter Action adversary prior to battle Cheng and ch'i* * Cheng/ch'i maneuver schemes were employed by early commanders to expose adversary vulnerabilities and weaknesses (a la cheng) for exploitation and decisive stroke (via ch'i). 14 Historical pattern Keeping in mind the ideas of Sun Tzu and our comments about early commanders, let’s take a look at an early tactical theme and some battle (grand tactical) situations to gain a feel for the different ways that the cheng/ch'i game has been (and can be) played. [CR: my emphasis] 15 Historical pattern Genghis Khan and the Mongols Key asymmetries Theme • Superior mobility • Widely separated strategic maneuvers, with appropriate • Superior communications stratagems, baited retreats, • Superior intelligence hard-hitting tactical thrusts, and swirling envelopments to • Superior leadership uncover and exploit adversary vulnerabilities and weaknesses. Aim in conjunction with Conquest, as basis to create, preserve, and ▪ Clever and calculated use of expand Mongol nation propaganda and terror to play upon adversary’s doubts, fears, and superstitions in order to undermine his resolve and destroy his will to resist. 25 Mongol strategic maneuver (1219-1220) (Modern Chagatai Jochi Uzbekistan & Genghis Khan Kazakhstan) Jebe Aral Sea Otrar Caspian Sea Kizyl- Kum Syr Darya Khawarizm State Bokhara River Oxus River Samarkand 500 miles 26 ? Raises nagging question ? Even though outnumbered, why were Mongols able to maneuver in widely scattered arrays without being defeated separately or in detail? Never divide your forces in the presence of a superior enemy. LTC George A. Custer, 1876. 27 What the Khawarizm leader actually saw (Modern Uzbekistan) Rumor Rumor Aral Sea Rumor OtrarTerror Caspian Sea Kizyl- Rumor Kum Khawarizm WTF??? State Bokhara Oxus River SamarkandTerror Propaganda 500 miles Based on Patterns 26 Historical patterns Genghis Khan and the Mongols Message • By exploiting superior leadership, intelligence, communications, and mobility as well as by playing upon adversary’s fears and doubts via propaganda and terror, Mongols operated inside adversary observation- orientation-decision-action loops. Result • Outnumbered Mongols created impressions of terrifying strength—by seeming to come out of nowhere yet be everywhere. Hence, • Subversive propaganda, clever stratagems, fast breaking maneuvers, and calculated terror not only created vulnerabilities and weaknesses but also played upon moral factors that drain away resolve, produce panic, and bring about collapse.
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