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Conflict Trends and Conflict Drivers: an Empirical Assessment of Historical Conflict Patterns and Future Conflict Projections

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Conflict Trends and Conflict Drivers: an Empirical Assessment of Historical Conflict Patterns and Future Conflict Projections Research Report Conflict Trends and Conflict Drivers An Empirical Assessment of Historical Conflict Patterns and Future Conflict Projections Thomas S. Szayna, Angela O’Mahony, Jennifer Kavanagh, Stephen Watts, Bryan Frederick, Tova C. Norlen, Phoenix Voorhies C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/rr1063 Library of Congress Control Number: 2017952115 ISBN: 978-0-8330-9055-3 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2017 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This report documents the results of the Emergence of New Conflict Trends project. Using empirical evidence, the project aimed to identify post–Cold War operational trends in armed conflict and the global strategic trends that characterize and influence the environments in which conflict takes place. The project also had the specific goal of identifying the conditions under which a change toward greater state-on-state conflict might take place. The analysis was conducted to support the Army leadership on issues pertaining to the future operational environment. The report should be of interest to intelligence analysts and military planners concerned with long-term Army planning—and U.S. armed forces planning in general. Research for this project was conducted from October 2012 through September 2013. The report was reviewed and revised in 2014, and updated in July and August of 2016. This research was sponsored by the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff, G-2 (Intelligence), Headquarters, Department of the Army, and conducted within the RAND Arroyo Center’s Strategy and Resources Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Corporation, is a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the United States Army. The Project Unique Identification Code (PUIC) for the project that produced this document is RAN136469. iii Table of Contents Preface ........................................................................................................................................... iii Figures .......................................................................................................................................... vii Tables ............................................................................................................................................. xi Summary ...................................................................................................................................... xiii Acknowledgments ...................................................................................................................... xxiv Abbreviations .............................................................................................................................. xxv 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 Background and Research Questions ........................................................................................................ 1 The Debate ................................................................................................................................................ 2 Research Approach ................................................................................................................................... 5 Organization of the Report ........................................................................................................................ 6 2. Overview of Conflict Trends ....................................................................................................... 9 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 9 What Is Conflict? ...................................................................................................................................... 9 A Typology of Conflict ......................................................................................................................... 9 Key Data Sets ...................................................................................................................................... 12 Scope and Implications of Measurement Error ................................................................................... 14 What Is Excluded from the Review? .................................................................................................. 14 Trends in Interstate Violence .................................................................................................................. 16 Armed Conflict .................................................................................................................................... 16 Crises and Militarized Disputes .......................................................................................................... 18 Trends in Intrastate Violence .................................................................................................................. 20 Armed Conflict .................................................................................................................................... 20 Intrastate Violence That Falls Short of War ....................................................................................... 25 One-Sided State Violence ................................................................................................................... 31 Violence by Nonstate Actors ................................................................................................................... 33 Armed Conflict .................................................................................................................................... 33 Terrorism ............................................................................................................................................. 36 Summary ................................................................................................................................................. 40 3. Operationalizing and Projecting Key Factors That Will Influence the Future Incidence of Conflict ................................................................................................................................ 42 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 42 Capacity of State Institutions .................................................................................................................. 46 Prevalence of Consolidated Democracies ............................................................................................... 48 Degree of Ethnic and Sectarian Polarization ........................................................................................... 50 Rate of Economic Growth ....................................................................................................................... 52 iv Extent of Economic Interdependence ...................................................................................................... 55 Degree of U.S. Preeminence ................................................................................................................... 57 Capabilities of International Organizations ............................................................................................. 59 Strength of International Norms .............................................................................................................. 62 Diffusion of Lethal Technology .............................................................................................................. 64 Extent of Resource Stress Because of Population Pressures ................................................................... 66 Summary of Key Factors ......................................................................................................................... 70 4. Establishing the “No Surprises” Future ..................................................................................... 73 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 73 Defining Baseline Projections: Methodology and Considerations ........................................................
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