SPECIAL

■ THE RACE TO DELIVER ■ NEW CLASS 385: LONGER, ELECTRIFICATION ON TIME FASTER AND GREENER ■ RAIL‘S SIGNIFICANT ROLE ■ FORECASTING THE DEMAND IN THE SCOTTISH ECONOMY FOR NEW SCOTTISH LINES PAUL BIGLAND: RAIL. SPECIAL REPORT A PROMOTION

Project timeline Key successes Start: September 2013 ■ Intense delivery programme: Phase 1 commissioned: September 2014 The main section of the route was Phase 2 commissioned: April 2015 completed within just 12 months, THE RACE FOR Overall completion: March 2016 allowing driver training and rolling stock commissioning in time for the first passengers 15 months after the electrified as part of the - start of electrification. SCOTTISH SUCCESS Improvement Programme (EGIP). ■ Delivery achievements: An It has also been a very Scottish project, intensive and accelerated project delivered by the Scots, for the Scots. Most of was delivered on time, safely, and to the people involved in RACE permanently budget. Up against a tight deadline, lived in Scotland’s Central Belt - the most ■ Benefits: The work has achieved densely populated area - which also kept what was envisaged, with a new delivered electrification people movement costs to a minimum. range of destinations provided for Local plant hire companies were used to communities along the line, a Sunday of the Line on time, on strengthen the supply chain, and some service now operating, more capacity suppliers were given assistance to gain at Glasgow Central High Level station, budget and with its trademark accreditation in the rail industry, opening much improved network resilience, up more opportunities for the future. At and new routes for freight operators flair for innovation and high the design stage of the project, Hyder to benefit economic development in Consulting and Siemens were involved, both the region. principles. STEFANIE BROWNE working from their Glasgow offices. ■ Local delivery: Carillion and the The project even provides wider benefits design team were all Scottish-based, finds out how it was achieved beyond Scotland. Skills gained by people with a locally sourced supply chain. new to the industry during the RACE ■ Skills improvement: New entrants project have qualified them to work on other to the rail industry were employed projects around the UK. All this training and locally trained, creating an was completed using the recently developed enhanced future resource for the OLEC electrification qualifications and extensive planned electrification Carillion’s depot at Shettleston, which is investment in the UK rail industry. close to the RACE sites. ■ Sustainability: Redundant It is important to Carillion in all its projects equipment was sourced from around that the work is sustainable, and RACE was the UK and reused on the project. no exception. The project complied with Innovative equipment was used to all the required environmental constraints, achieve a variety of sustainable Final installation and while Carillion went the extra mile by benefits and a reduction in future registration on the RACE volunteering innovative solutions during the maintenance requirements. project. CARILLION. course of its work. Key to this principled approach was the reuse of equipment recovered from caused by Pendolinos, was moved from mbitious plans to electrify a Despite the accelerated timescale, scheme which also took on-board the And the upgrades go beyond network other projects on the network. For Bourne End (allowing the line to be used as number of key routes in Scotland the benefits from the scheme were not issues of Interoperability, Common Safety improvements. Because of the option for example, two track section cabins due a diversionary route for Pendolinos). are part of a strategy to provide compromised and the project has had Method(CSM) and compliant installation freight customers to serve terminals west to be decommissioned in Glasgow were The work itself included several Asignificant economic, social a transformational effect on this part of of OLE to the Electricity at Work Act, the of Glasgow via an electrified route, the recovered and reused; 12 redundant booster innovations to enhance the long-term and environmental benefits for future Scotland. Electric passenger trains running first electrification scheme in the UK to do economic possibilities for the region are transformers were relocated from Rugby; environmental benefits, as well as making generations. While several parts of the over the can now utilise the so using Series 2 equipment,” says Carillion significant. And this will only improve, and a harmonic damper that counteracts the construction aspect easier and reducing scheme will stretch into 2019 and beyond, , giving passengers access to new Engineering Services Director Andy Stocks. once the Grangemouth branch has been interferences in the OLE supply pattern, the maintenance required. portions of the work are already complete service destinations. There is now a Sunday “This meant that the whole team of All the hard work paid off in a short space and delivering benefits to the Scottish service, giving passengers greater freedom , Carillion and Designer staff of time. It has enabled electric haulage network. One of those was delivered rather and flexibility. ScotRail has also benefited had to work together to achieve the correct of existing passenger services, provided earlier than anticipated… from improved network resilience, with a technical and compliant outcome. This more seats on trains, new destinations In May 2013, Scottish Ministers diversionary route for was achieved and is a credit to all those for communities along the route, the announced that electrification of the traffic, which has already come in handy for involved.” opportunity to divert passenger and empty Whifflet Line (-) services during WCML stock, and allowed freight operators to would be commissioned sooner and blockades. switch to electric operation. All-in-all, it’s delivered ahead of schedule. Originally “The RaCE Project was a ‘fast tracked’ a better, more efficient and more flexible planned for completion in 2018/19, the new railway as a result. deadline would be in 2016. The RACE project has Says Stocks : “The RACE project has With a value of £28 million, the project set the benchmark for efficient delivery linked the West Coast Main Line in the set the benchmark for of electrification schemes, including Rutherglen area with the Scottish Central the upgrades required to the railway Line in the Coatbridge area, involving efficient delivery of infrastructure associated with electrifying design and installation of 26 single-track Final installation and an existing railway line. The rest of the kilometres of 25kV equipment. electrification schemes. registration on the RACE UK railway industry, in an era when the Aptly named the RACE project, it really did project. The final view from affordability of electrification is being become a race to the finish line for principal Andy Stocks, station. CARILLION. questioned, would do well to take time to contractor Carillion. Engineering Services Director, Carillion learn why RACE was a success.” ■

38 39 SCOTLAND SPECIAL

EDINBURGH IMPROVEMENTS Delivering a plan of action

Source: Rail Delivery Group.

trains into Glasgow from the North East. of the station is a short-term possibility, Across at Glasgow Central, trains from East through timetable improvements and capacity On September 13, ScotRail 314213 (second Kilbride and North will also be investment, but longer-term major work is RICHARD CLINNICK analyses a left) leaves Glasgow Central with a train for overcrowded. required, it says. Neilston. Also in the station are (from left): SR In the east, commuter trains from the Electrifying the busy routes to East Kilbride Rail Delivery Group document 314204, 314205, 380104 and 158728. This is Lothians into Edinburgh are forecast to and North Ayrshire is one option, while the Scotland’s busiest station, and capacity exceed seating capacity in the morning industry will try to make the best use of the discussing how the railway can enhancements are needed to enable the city peak, although it is hoped that the planned capacity available at the station. Longer-term to develop the change in economy in the support the Scottish economy West of Scotland. STEWART ARMSTRONG. introduction of longer trains in two years’ the station will also be the access point for time will help to alleviate that. HS2, and the RDG notes that this must also Scotland’s busiest station is Glasgow be considered. orth of the Border, the Rail an updated High Level Output Specification “The market for rail in Scotland has grown RDG believes that the best way to improve Central. The West of Scotland’s economy Across the Central Belt, there are Delivery Group (RDG) believes (HLOS) and an updated National Transport significantly. Passenger rail demand in is to make the best use of existing and future is adjusting to a long-term decline in suggested plans to improve capacity at that the railway can play a Strategy, this will be used to inform how Scotland has doubled over the last 20 years capacity, and to clearly determine which manufacturing and primary industries, and Edinburgh through significant infrastructure Nsignificant role in the broader transport can help deliver the Government’s and although there is uncertainty about options best support these ideals. to a more city centre and service-orientated improvements. economic, social and environmental vision. future demand, current forecasts reinforce There are anticipated capacity changes. economy. The city must be able to tap into While the western end of Edinburgh objectives planned for Scotland. Writing in the RDG document’s foreword, the need for continued investment.” The Scotland Market Study highlighted this labour market, and that needs support was remodelled in 2008 ready for This means that despite the new trains Jo Kaye, Chairman, Planning Oversight Kaye also highlights rail freight, that by 2018-19 seating capacity will be from rail. the re-opening of the Airdrie-Bathgate line currently on order, the planned cascade of Group RDG and Director, Network Rail noting that while coal is in steep decline, exceeded on some parts of the network. The Glasgow and Clyde Valley City (RAIL 592), RDG notes the need for further High Speed Trains, the recent re-opening Strategy and Capacity Planning, says: containerised traffic is rising. She states: Trains between Glasgow and Edinburgh Deal helps, but more trains are needed work to meet increased passenger demand. of the Borders route and the (albeit “Ensuring that this adjustment in via and via Shotts will be more into Central, and RDG recognises this This involves grade-separating Winchburgh late-running) Edinburgh-Glasgow freight markets can be accommodated than 80% full in the morning peak, as will as a challenge. Changes to the operation Junction, and creating a chord line and grade- Improvement Programme (EGIP), SCOTTISH IMPROVEMENTS is a priority for both freight operators separated junctions at Almond to connect with more work is required. and Network Rail, as they are important Winchburgh and Fife lines towards Edinburgh. Electrification, longer trains and TAKING PLACE for supporting sustainable economic RDG says this would improve connections infrastructure improvements to unlock ■ Edinburgh Glasgow Improvement Programme growth in Scotland.” ROLLING STOCK and resilience. It would “also help avoid capacity, designed to meet the expected delivery. She warns that the railway is facing ScotRail will take delivery of 70 Hitachi way on SR’s fleet. The next one will larger-scale interventions closer to Edinburgh increase in traffic, are all mentioned by ■ Main Line improvements. challenges in Scotland, and that it needs Class 385 electric multiple units from begin in 2025, it says. Waverley, and provide a route for larger gauge the RDG in its Investing in the Future: ■ Aberdeen- improvements. to show how it can overcome these by next autumn, while 27 High Speed It states that fit-for-purpose depots freight services”. Costs for this range from Choices for Scotland’s Railways 2019 ■ Electrification to , Alloa, Dunblane. making the best use of its resources, Trains will be cascaded from Great and stabling facilities are required to £100 million to £300m. and beyond document, released at ■ Electrification of . while being seen to be innovating and Western Railway with the first entering support the trains in terms of reliability, At the other end of Waverley, remodelling the end of September (RAIL 811). The ■ Introduction of HSTs to Scotland’s seven cities. partnering with stakeholders such as traffic in spring 2018. On cross-border and that the industry and Government the track layout from Calton Tunnels would document seeks to discuss how an ■ Recast timetable. the Government. Customers should be trains, both Virgin Trains East Coast and must work together to ensure any gaps “maximise platform capacity and availability efficient transport network is essential ■ New, faster trains on cross-border services. at the heart of the industry, she says. TransPennine Express will introduce in this area are met. at a congested network”, the RDG says. This to delivering a prosperous Scotland. ■ Improvements to freight capability. “Scotland’s railway is well-placed to new fleets to Anglo-Scottish trains by The Rail Delivery Group puts forward work is also predicted to cost in the range Having published its Economic ■ Clear progress on the strategy and contribute to both internal and cross- 2020. the case that having a clear, strategic of £100m-£300m, and would complement Strategy last year, the Scottish activity required to support introduction and border markets. Setting out a long-term The recognises understanding of both the fleet and proposed platform extensions. Government is currently developing development of services that will operate to and context for managing and developing the value that new and refurbished maintenance requirements is necessary Scotland’s railways have suffered in recent its own infrastructure priorities for the from Scotland using . the network will enable their potential rolling stock brings, and highlights an if the industry is to deliver the required months with delays to projects, but the RDG future, that will make its strategy a Source: Rail Delivery Group to be realised and continued success to extensive refurbishment that is under output. has a bold plan for the country. It is now up the reality. Alongside the RDG document, be achieved.” relevant authorities to see them through. ■

40 41 SPECIAL REPORT A PROMOTION

HITACHI RAIL EUROPE AT200: BASE SPECIFICATION The Class 385 trains are formed from ■ Door type/positions: Sliding plug/one- FASTER AND the Hitachi AT200 product platform, third, two-third offering operators a wide variety of ■ Cab Design: Full Width/Gangway Cab interior options for life-cycle ■ Interior: Cantilevered bay and flexibility. unidirectional seating and table layouts, Specification options include: standard/wide intercar gangway, GREENER ■ Train Configuration: 3 - 12-car LED lighting throughout, power at ■ Speed Range: 100mph-125mph every seat, passenger WiFi provision, ■ Max acceleration: 1 m/s/s passenger information system with seat Hitachi’s forthcoming ■ Nominal Vehicle Length: 23 metres reservation, First Class compartment ■ Power Supply: Dual Voltage (25kV with reading-lights, range of luggage and Class 385s promise big AC/750V DV plus battery-hybrid) toilet facilities. improvements for Scottish

rail passengers. RICHARD the past,” he says, explaining that this keeps Scotland and my procurement team in knowledge together and allows designs to Abellio have negotiated such a great deal CLINNICK reports evolve. with Hitachi, which is underpinned by some He cites the example of the traction of the finest engineering in the world. equipment designed and manufactured by “Our innovative finance package allows Hitachi, and which is fitted to Class 465s the Scottish Government and Transport operating for Southeastern. Since being Scotland to take ownership of the trains fitted the trains have covered for than 50 after 25 years, and will have long-term million miles in traffic, but there has yet to benefits for Scotland. This new fleet will be be failure as a result of the traction. And a major contributor to sustainable economic this is equipment retrospectively fitted to a growth and ensure that the full benefits of 1980s-designed EMU, so in theory the ‘385’ EGIP are realised for passengers.” (with its evolved traction package) should be Phil Verster, managing director of the more reliable. ScotRail Alliance, says: “These faster, longer, Another key component known to cause greener trains will mean more seats and regular failures is the HVAC equipment, and shorter journey times with less impact on again Hitachi Rail Europe has designed its our environment. When we have them in own equipment that is fitted to its trains. service, they will transform travel between So far this is only on Class 395 Javelins our two biggest cities.” in the UK, but it is also fitted to the Class Radford says that ScotRail has been 800-802 Intercity Express Programme trains engaged with Hitachi for “the entire way” itachi’s new AT200 electric vehicle manufacturing facility in Newton previously unheard-of levels of reliability The first trains built from scratch in to be introduced from 2017, as well as the on the Class 385 project, including changes multiple units are set to Aycliffe (County Durham). following their order. Newton Aycliffe will be T7 and T8. The AT200 fleet. to the cab and saloon interiors. Passenger revolutionise the railways of This includes 50 apprentices in both The trains will be introduced onto former is the ‘Hare Car’ (pictured above) Again, this offers improved reliability, and groups have also been involved in the final HScotland. engineering and manufacturing who will Scotland’s railway system from next year, that is currently being used to refine is evolved from a design in widespread use designs for the trains. The 100mph EMUs are being custom- work on the trains, and Hitachi Rail Europe in a deal worth £370 million. And in an production processes - this means T8 will on trains manufactured by Hitachi and in This British-built train will truly transform made for Scotland. They will be longer, (HRE) hopes that they will be encouraged to innovative funding agreement, after 25 be the first delivered using the tried and use around the world. the way people in Scotland travel. And faster and greener than the trains they are stay and develop with the company. years (2042) the trains can be acquired by tested methods. But what do the customers think? for Hitachi, it is not only the first in what replacing, and will enable passengers to HRE also points out that the supply chain Transport Scotland. This means that the The schedule to deliver the trains is “This train will be truly transformational it hopes is a succession of orders for its travel in greater comfort. for the trains has been localised, with 72% of AT200 fleet cannot be cascaded south of incredibly demanding, but it’s one that for customers, and proudly positions commuter trains in the UK, it is also a Fully air-conditioned, and fitted with the components sourced in the North East. the border, and therefore is truly a train for Andy Radford, ASR Project Manager at Scotland’s transport at the apex of transport chance to contribute to the UK supply chain plug sockets and WiFi capabilities, the The Class 385s will offer almost double Scotland. Hitachi Rail Europe, is more than happy initiatives in the UK,” says Abellio UK and engineering staff shortage. Everyone AT200 is the train for 21st century Scottish the capacity compared with trains currently The Scottish Government ordered the with. Managing Director Dominic Booth. will benefit from the introduction of the passengers. It will also add capacity to a line running on the Edinburgh-Glasgow trains in October 2014, five months after The Class 385s (as they have been “I am particularly pleased that Transport Class 385s next autumn. ■

highlighted by the Rail Delivery Group as route. Being electric, they will reduce CO2 Abellio was awarded the ScotRail franchise. classified) are to come into passenger otherwise being full in the next couple of emissions by up to 35%, and they are much The deal was formally signed in March 2015, service from autumn 2017, which leaves years (see pages 40-41). quieter, both internally and externally. and just nine months later (January 2016) Hitachi with an ambitious timetable for The AT200 is the first commuter train They will also offer a much smoother ride the first AT200 was being tested in Japan. building, testing and delivering to ScotRail. delivered by Hitachi to the UK, following for passengers and are planned to bring Fourteen (ten fully assembled and four But the building progress is on time, and the successful introduction of Class 395 part-assembled) pre-series trains are being Hitachi is confident it has the know-how to Javelins on High Speed 1. They are the first shipped to the UK from Hitachi’s Kasado do the job. Hitachi trains delivered to Scotland, but will Works in Japan,with the remaining 56 trains What gives Radford confidence is that be followed in 2018 by Azumas for Virgin CLASS 385 ROUTES built at Hitachi’s Rail vehicle manufacturing Hitachi Rail Europe has never delivered a Trains East Coast, and in 2019 by the AT300s ■ Glasgow Queen Street-Edinburgh facility in Newton Aycliffe. train late to any customer. This successful for TransPennine Express. Waverley (via Falkirk) Currently T1 is at the Velim test track in delivery is based on what he describes as The AT200 trains will also bring a boost ■ Edinburgh Waverley-North Berwick the Czech Republic (with T4 en route), and “evolution, not revolution” - rather than to the British economy by being built ■ Glasgow Central-Neilston/ T2 and T3 have arrived in the UK for testing rip up the page and start again with each here. More staff are being recruited by the Newton/Cathcart Circle and are currently at Newton Aycliffe. A design, Hitachi merely works to improve on company, as a result of the extension of ■ Edinburgh Waverley-Glasgow further two (T5 and T6) will be delivered to what already works. the contract for the number of EMUs to be Central (via Shotts) the UK and will be the first to be fitted with “The policy is to bid for work using the manufactured at Hitachi Rail Europe’s rail the full interior ready for traffic. same suppliers that have been successful in

42 43 SCOTLAND SPECIAL Predicting the demand for new rail he , the longest Systra Director for Technical Development DAVID area and specific to the ‘envelope’ of local detailed regional network model. significantly between the forecasting and the new domestic rail line to be built factors. This dual approach is more powerful minister cutting the red ribbon, which is why in the UK in the last 100 years, has CONNOLLY discusses the Borders Railway and new The users of these tools can quickly than a single line of attack, and allows more transport planning is never dull.” Tbeen (by most measures) a huge consider and understand a wider range of of the ‘imponderables’ to be pondered. In However, we need to ensure a willingness success. techniques being used to better forecast demand scheme variants than would be practical particular, it makes it easier to consider and to evaluate past successes and failures, Far from being the white elephant that with the large off-the-shelf models. It is also test the full envelope of potential future and the flexibility to make changes to the some prominent voices ominously warned move into an area owing to its improved especially in corridors at the edge of or easier to add specific local features of travel demand scenarios - typically including a forecasting where they are needed. about, demand for the 30-mile line between accessibility to the jobs at the other end of the between the main travel-to-work areas in a given corridor (for example, airport no-growth in demand scenario, a high- The Rail Evaluation Guidance put out by the Scottish capital and the Borders town new rail service. represented in Transport Scotland and the passengers using the proposed new station at growth scenario combining additional Transport Scotland - and widely applauded of has outstripped most The difficulty in forecasting these RTP’s new regional models. Dalcross/Inverness Airport) to these bespoke housing and jobs, and consideration of a within the industry - is a good example of expectations. The trains and car parks are demographic responses will be exacerbated Systra has developed corridor modelling spreadsheet-based models, than it would be competitive response from the competing how this can be done. And the response to often crowded, and ScotRail has already if significant numbers of new houses (and/ tools that can capture the specificity of local to add and calibrate an additional traveller modes. it is evident in the innovative approaches had to increase some of the most crowded or new employment centres) are built areas with a lighter touch than the detailed type within a full regional model. However, as the legendary American being applied by companies such as Systra services from two-car to four-car sets. in the relevant corridor having not been whole-network forecasting models allow, Once the bespoke ‘spreadsheet’ has been baseball coach Yogi Berra famously said: and others to new rail and transport projects How could the forecasters have got it included in the planning forecasts used for by applying a first wave of approaches used to appraise the broad business case, Making predictions is hard, especially about throughout the country. so wrong? And was this a one-off flawed the original patronage forecasts, especially that are less technically sophisticated and rank and sift the numerous variants, the the future. With the best will in the world, With a bit of luck, the uncertainties in the forecast, or a symptom of a general ingrained since these new houses are likely to be (using spreadsheet-based mode choice, for emerging ‘preferred options’ can then be the out-turn patronage might still not match crystal ball forecasts will gradually disappear conservatism on the part of consultants and disproportionately attractive to those who example) but which are bespoke to the local tested in more detail using an appropriately the forecasts, especially if the world changes like the snow in a snow globe. ■ modellers? are likely to use the new rail service. While rail forecasts will always be subject It would be interesting to see the extent With Freightliner 66602 at the head, and with 66605 bringing up the rear, the to error, the recent track record of the of this bias in the forthcoming evaluation first 3,000-tonne ballast train enters the Borders Railway at in appraisal of new rail lines and stations in the of the Borders Rail, to help calibrate and October 2014. The new Borders Line opened in September 2015, with passenger demand in its first year far outstripping expectations.PETER DELANEY. UK does not exhibit any clear tendency one validate this type of land-use response in way or the other. There is as much chance the sophisticated Land-use and Transport that the forecasts will over-estimate as Interaction (LUTI) model which is now under-estimate the out-turn values, although available for Scotland. the discrepancies seen on the Borders Line Predicting the demand for Park & Ride appear to be higher than average. and rail-heading (for example at the new The difficulty lies in the difference Tweedbank station) is also more difficult between forecasting developments that than the simple ‘car vs bus vs rail’ modal extend or alter existing transport provision choice. This is due to the additional and the trickier prospect of starting from complexities associated with availability of scratch or re-opening services that have been the car, the parking space and the seat on the long disused. train and the additional choices available, If you are thinking of increasing frequency, since each station on the new line needs to reducing journey times or reducing be included in the choice-set. crowding, then well-understood and well- Transport Scotland and the various calibrated elasticity-based relationships can Regional Transport Partnerships (RTPs) are be used to predict the impact on passenger working towards having a suite of up-to-date numbers (providing the competing modes multi-modal and LUTI models, with the are ‘fairly typical’). relevant level of sophistication to be used to Well-calibrated multi-modal transport take account of these various factors. models should be capable of getting close to However, the level of sophistication and correctly predicting the out-turn impact of network detail required to cover all potential both new and improved rail services when new public transport investment comes with the underlying travel pattern is correctly the downside of long run-times. This makes represented, and the model only needs to it hard to use these national/regional models predict the mode-choice response. to test the large number of infrastructure, However, the problem becomes more timetable, stopping pattern and land-use difficult when the travel patterns change scenarios that typically need to be considered significantly as a result of the scheme - either during the design and appraisal of a new rail due to a change in destination of trips made scheme. by existing residents, or as new residents Additional tools are therefore needed,

The level of sophistication and network detail required to cover all potential new public transport investment comes with the downside of long run-times.

44 45