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Qualitative And Quantitative Assessment Of Vulnerability Of Economically Important Crops And Biodiversity To Climate Change In

BY MUHAMMAD SOHAIB ARSHAD

Department of Plant Sciences, Quaid-i-Azam University , Pakistan 2019

Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan

Thesis submitted to Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad – Pakistan in Partial Fulfillment for the Requirements of the Degree of

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

In

Plant Sciences (Botany)

BY MUHAMMAD SOHAIB ARSHAD

Department of Plant Sciences, Quaid-i-Azam University Islamabad, Pakistan 2019

DEDICATED TO MY FATHER DR. MUHAMMAD ARSHAD, MY MOTHER & SPECIALLY TO MY GRAND FATHER

FOREIGN EXAMINERS

1) Dr. Athar Tariq Senior Scientist California Department of Food & 2800 Gateway Oaks Drive Sacramento, CA 95833 USA

2) Professor Jerry Roberts Deputy Vice Chancellor Research and Enterprise University of Plymouth

QUAID-I-AZAM UNIVERSITY DEPARTMENT OF PLANT SCIENCES

No.______6th December 2019

Subject: Author Declaration

I Mr Muhammad Sohaib Arshad hereby state that my Ph.D thesis titled“ Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan” is my own work and has not been submitted previously by me for taking any degree from Department of Plant Sciences, Quaid-i-Azam University or anywhere else in the country/world.

At any time if my statement is found to be incorrect even after my Graduate,the university has the right to withdraw my Ph.D degree.

(Muhammad Sohaib Arshad)

QUAID-I-AZAM UNIVERSITY DEPARTMENT OF PLANT SCIENCES

No.______6th December, 2019

Subject: Plagiarism Undertaking

I solemnly declare that research work presented in the thesis titled “Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan” is solely my research work with no significant contribution from any other person. Small contribution/help wherever taken has been duly acknowledged and that complete thesis has been written by me.

I understand the zero tolerance policy of the HEC and Quaid-i-Azam University towards plagiarism. Therefore, I as an author of the above titled thesis declare that no portion of my thesis has been plagiarized and any material used as reference is properly referred/cited.

I undertake that if I am found faulty of any formal plagiarism in the above titled thesis even after award of Ph.D. degree, the University reserves the rights to withdraw/revoke my Ph.D. degree and that HEC and the University has the right to publish my name on the HEC/University website on which name of students are placed who submitted plagiarized thesis.

Student / Author Signature ______Muhammad Sohaib Arshad

Turnitin Originality Report

Turnitin Originality Report ¬¬¬¬¬Qualitative And Quantitative Assessment Of Vulnerability Of Economically Important Crops And Forest Tree Biodiversity To Climate Change In Pakistan by Sohaib Arshad From ¬¬¬¬¬Qualitative And Quantitative Assessment Of Vulnerability Of Economically Important Crops And Forest Tree Biodiversity To Climate Change In Pakistan (Ph.D. Thesis)

Processed on 02-Jun-2019 13:16 PKT ID: 1138905132 Word Count: 30039

Similarity Index 9% Similarity by Source

Internet Sources: 6% Publications: 5% Student : 7%

sources:

< 1% match (Internet from 23-Oct-2009) 1 http://zaimuae.com/alain/showthread.php?s=&t=151218&page=2

< 1% match (Internet from 16-Apr-2018) 2 https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/357876/climate-change-profile-pakistan.pdf

< 1% match (Internet from 26-Dec-2016) 3 http://old.oalib.com/paper/2332964

< 1% match (Internet from 02-Apr-2019) 4 http://namc.pmd.gov.pk/assets/crop-reports/1910803754crop-report--wheat-2015- 16.pdf

< 1% match (publications) 5 Maryam Akram Butt, Muhammad Zafar, Mushtaq Ahmad, Shazia Sultana, Fazal Ullah, Gul Jan, Ali Irfan, Syeda Andleeb Zahra Naqvi. "Morpho-palynological study of Cyperaceae from wetlands of Azad Jammu and Kashmir using SEM and LM", Microscopy Research and Technique, 2018

< 1% match (publications) 6 Anam Fatima, Muhammad Zafar, Mushtaq Ahmad, Ghulam Yaseen, Shazia Sultana, Muhammad Gulfraz, Amir Muhammad Khan. "Scanning electron microscopy as a tool for authentication of oil yielding seed", Microscopy Research and Technique, 2018

< 1% match (student papers from 02-Apr-2018) 7 Submitted to Higher Education Commission Pakistan on 2018-04-02

< 1% match (Internet from 13-Oct-2016) 8 https://prezi.com/gdio2iz_hxwc/global-warming/

< 1% match (publications) 9 Schaub, M.. "Introductory remarks to the special issue - XXII IUFRO World Congress, 2005

file:///F|/hard%20binding/SoTurnitin%20Originality%20Report.htm[07-Jan-20 2:23:40 PM]

Publications:

S.No Title Year Impact Factor

1. Sohaib Arshad*, Mushtaq Ahmad and Abdul 2018 0.691 Saboor Climate variability and crop production in Punjab, Pakistan.2018 Fresinus Environmental Bulletin.27(8):5363-5371

2. Sohaib Arshad, Mushtaq Ahmad,Abdul Saboor, 2019 1.327 Faridah Hanum Ibrahim, Muhammad Raza Ul Mustafa, Muhammad Zafar and Shomaila Ashfaq. Role of in climate change and their authentication through scanning electron microscopy 2019. Microscopy research and technique, 82(2), 92-100.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

Praise to the Allah Almighty who bestows success and guides our destiny. I have no words to thanks Allah almighty who gives me the opportunity to complete my studies. Trembling lips and wet eyes pray for the Holy Prophet Hazrat Muhammad (PBUH) for enlightening our conscience with an essence of faith in Allah, converging all His kindness and mercy upon him. I offer my thanks from the core of my heart to The Holy Prophet Hazrat Muhammad (PBUH) who is forever a torch of knowledge and guideline for humanity as a whole. It is difficult to overstate my gratitude to my Supervisor Dr. Mushtaq Ahmad (Associate Professor), Department of Plant Sciences, Quaid I Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan. It has been a privilege to work under the dynamic leadership and guidance of my supervisor. I sincerely thank for all has trust and support to pursue my research work under his guidance. I gratefully acknowledge the support of Chairman Department of Plant Sciences, Dr. Abdul Samad Mumtaz (Associate Professor) for providing with all necessary facilities required during the entire course of my research work. I would like to express humble thanks to Dr. Mir Ajab Khan (Professor), Dr. Muhammad Zafar (Assistant Professor) for providing excellent spectral data facilities. I wish to express my gratitude towards Dr.Abdul Saboor (Professor) for his active help and support. I owe sincere thanks to my colleagues and lab fellows for their help support and help. I wish to express my deep sense of appreciation and gratitude to my junior colleagues for their generous help, critical suggestions and able guidance. I have immense pleasure in thanking my dear best friend Usman Shabbir for encouraging support, help and care provided by him from core of my heart. I want to sincerely thank my brother Rohan Arshad and sister Moheera Arshad for their moral support throughout my research. Whatever good I have in my life is a result of immense sacrifices made by my Father and Mother. I have no words to express my heartfelt gratitude and respect towards my parents for their blessings, endless love and constant inspiration throughout my studies and for teaching me the essence of education and integrity. Muhammad Sohaib Arhsad

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Titles P. No Table of Contents i List of Tables iv List of Figures v List of Plates vi Abstract vii CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1-17 1.1 Climate Change and it’s General Impacts 1-2 1.2 Variation in Global Mean Temperature 1-3 1.3 Status of Agriculture Sector 3-5 1.4 Impacts of Climate Change on Economically Important Crops 5-7 1.5 The Status of and 7-8 1.6 Degradation of Forest Sector 9-10 1.7 Climatic Factors 10-12 1.8 Importance of Forests 12-13 1.9 Climate Change With Respect To Forest Tree Biodiversity in 13-14 Pakistan 1.10 Missing Forest Policy Linkage 14-15 1.11 Role Of Forest In Climate’s Mitigation And Identification Of 15-16 Tree Seeds Using Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) 1.12 Objectives of Project 17 CHAPTER 2 REVIEW OF LITERATURE 18-33 2.1 General Impacts Of Climate Change 18-19 2.2 Impacts Of Climate Change On Agriculture Sector 19-23 2.3 Impacts Of Climate Change On Forests 23-30 2.4 Use of Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) for Identification 30-33 of Tree Seeds CHAPTER 3 MATERIALS AND METHODS 34-48 3.1 Climate Change Study 34 3.2 Impact of Climate Variability on Economically Important Crops 34

i

3.2.1 Study Area 34 3.2.2 Crop selection 35 3.2.3 Sampling framework 35-36 3.2.4 Multistage Purposive Stratified Random Sampling 36 3.2.5 Secondary Data Documentation of Climatic Variables 40 3.2.6 The Ricardian model 40-41 3.2.7 Ricardian Regression and Econometric Specifications 42-43 3.3 In Depth Interviews 43-44 3.4 Ethnobotanical Data Documentation 46 3.4.1 Study sites 46 3.4.2 SEM Analysis of Seed of Forest Trees 46 3.4.3 Mixed Method Approach 48 CHAPTER 4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS 49-121 4.1 Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Crops 49 4.1.1 Farmer’s Perception About Climate Change 49-50 4.1.2 Yield Perspectives Of Sampled Farmers 51 4.2 Ricardian Analysis 52-63 4.3 In Depth Interviews Of Forestry Professionals 63 4.3.1 Status Of Forests In Pakistan 63-67 4.3.2 Erratic Patterns Of Temperature And Precipitation. 68-74 4.3.3 Problems 75-76 4.3.4 Inherent Problems Associated To Forest Sector 76-79 4.3.5 Degradation By Anthropogenic Activities 80-81 4.3.6 General Impact Of Climate Change On Forest Sector 81-85 4.3.7 Damage By Green House Gases 86-87 4.3.8 Glimpse Of Pakistan’s Forest Policy 88 4.3.9 Strategies For Controlling Forest Area Reduction In Pakistan 88-89 4.3.10 Recommendations To Prevent Degradation Of Forests 90 4.3.11 Workable Policy And Strategic Imperatives 90-91 4.3.12 Recommendations To Mitigate Climate Change 91-93

ii

4.4 Scanning Electron Microscopy Of Tree Seeds 93 4.4.1 SEM(Scanning Electron Microscopy) 93-94 4.4.2 Ethnobotanical Uses of Important Tree Species 105 4.4.3 A Composite Analysis 113 4.4.4 Strategies or Policies to Mitigate Climate Change 114-119 4.5 Conclusions 120-121 4.5.1 Recommendations 121-122 4.5.2 Future Visions 122 REFERENCES 123-141 Annexture Outcomes of Thesis (Publications) Appendix

iii

LIST OF TABLES

No Title P. No 1 Time Series of Temperature Across Regions Of Pakistan 3 2 Overtime Trend Of Yield Of Economically Important Crops 4 (Kgs/Hectare) 3 The Sampling Configuration Of Agricultural Sector 36 4 Farmers Perception Regarding Climate Change 45 5 Median Ricardian Regression: Rabi Maximum And Minimum 53 Temperatures, Rainfalls, Dummies And Socio-Economic Variables 6 Median Ricardian Regression: Marginal Impact Of Climate Change On 54 Net Farm Revenue (US$/Hectare) 7 Median Ricardian Regression: Seasonal Maximum Temperatures, 56-57 Rainfalls, Dummies And Socio-Economic Variables 8 Median Ricardian Regression: Marginal Impact Of Climate Change On 58 Net Farm Revenue (US$/Hectare) 9 Median Ricardian Regression: Seasonal Minimum Temperatures, 60-61 Rainfalls, Dummies And Socio-Economic Variables 10 Median Ricardian Regression: Marginal Impact Of Climate Change On 62 Net Farm Revenue (US$/Hectare) 11 Quantitative Characters And SEM Analysis of Seeds of Tree Species 95 12 Qualitative Characters And SEM Findings of Seeds of Tree Species 96 13 Botanical Description, Economical Uses And Active Phytochemicals 106- Of Important Tree Species 112 14 An Integrated Analytical Matrix 113

iv

LIST OF FIGURES

No. Title P. No 1 Showing variation in global mean temperature 1 2 Forest Area by Types of Vegetation in 2013-14 9 3 Map of Study area 43 4 Net farm revenue in US $ per Hectare by different farmer 46 5 Forest map of Pakistan 66 6 Schematic diagram showing Reasons of Climate Change 68 7 Temperature fluctuations between the year 1900-2010 70 8 Mean annual total precipitation (mm) of Pakistan and its trend during 70 the periods 1901-2010. 9 Schematic diagram showing problems of forest sector 79 10 Schematic diagram showing Impacts of climate change 86 11 Schematic diagram showing Keys of Public policy design 92

v

LIST OF PLATES

No Title P. No Plate 1a Rice Field In District in August 2018 (Punjab) 37 Plate 1b Rice Field In Hafizabad September 2018 (Punjab) 37 Plate 1c Sugarcane Field In Sahiwal in November 2018 (Punjab) 38 Plate 1d Cotton Field In Multan in September 2018 (Punjab) 38 Plate 2a Documentation Of Data During Field Survey (Punjab) 39 Plate 2b Collecting Information From The Local Farmer (Punjab) 39 Plate 3aI Documentation of data from resource person 44 Plate 3b Data Documentation using Questionnaire for Interview 45 Plate 3c Data Documentation Using Open Discussion 45 Plate 4 (A) Acacia modesta, (B) Seed(LM), (C) Seed (SEM), (D) Seed 97 sculpturing (SEM) Plate 5 (A) Acacia nilotica, (B) Seed (LM), (C) Seed (SEM), (D) Seed 98 sculpturing (SEM) Plate 6 (A) Albizia lebbeck, (B) Seed (LM), (C) Seed (SEM), (D) Seed 99 sculpturing (SEM) Plate 7 ( A) Averrhoa carambola, (B) Seed (LM), (C) Seed (SEM), (D) 100 Seed sculpturing (SEM) Plate 8 (A) Azadirachta indica, (B) Seed (LM), (C) Seed (SEM), (D) 101 Seed sculpturing (SEM) Plate 9 (A) citriodora, (B) Seed (LM), (C) Seed (SEM), (D) 102 Seed sculpturing (SEM) Plate 10 (A) Pongamia pinnata, (B) Seed (LM)), (C) Seed sculpturing 103 (SEM) Plate 11 (A) Prosopis cineraria, (B) Seed (LM) (C) Seed (SEM), (D) 104 Seed sculpturing (SEM)

vi

ABSTRACT

This research project is confined to study the influence of climate changes on major crops (cotton, rice, sugar cane and wheat) in irrigated and rainfed regions of the province of Punjab in Pakistan. The study mainly focused on the role of trees to overcome fast climate changes. The chief objective of this study was to evaluate the potential of forest sector in the mitigation of climate change. In addition, the use of Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) was employed in identification of tree seeds. Secondary data regarding economically important crops and forest tree species in respect to climate change was collected from forest department, agriculture department and local farmers as well as primary data from resource persons in respective fields. In total, twenty species of forest trees were selected, collected and ethnobotanically documented for their economic uses. Out of these species; eight tree species were studied using Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) to analyze their seeds morphology for correct identification. The main focus of SEM was on seed sculpturing in order to develop linkage with climate change and seed morphology.

A cross sectional secondary data of 345 farmers from 25 districts of the Punjab province was obtained to estimate the marginal impact on net farm revenue with reference to temperature and precipitation. In case of Rabi-Kharif configuration of climatic variables, Net Farm Revenue (NFR) showed an increase of $ 654.67 per hectare with 10oC increase in Rabi maximum temperature while non-irrigated farms were confronting a decrease of $ 2583.18. The model identified that with the increase of 10oC in winter and summermaximum temperatures; there would be decrease in NFR by $ 1608.49 and $ 1479.24 respectively. It is observed that the marginal impacts were negative under all yearly based climatic variables. The farmers operating under non-irrigated environment were the extreme sufferers because of non-availability of irrigation water. It was further noticed that temperature’s fluctuation was more serious than rainfall patterns.

In addition to this, primary information was also documented using in-depth interviews from resource persons in the field of agriculture farm lands and forestry.In this regard, the narratives of various technical and policy experts regarding the influence of climate change on forests of Pakistan were introduced. Both the implicit

vii and explicit connections of these narratives were assessed in order to develop linkage with current findings. Both qualitative and quantitative information were analyzed in the form of tables, figures and schematic diagrams to present economically important crops and tree species under the impact of climate change.

The findings of the study urged the policy makers for the mobilization of extension services radically to execute adaptation strategies in most vulnerable regions. The research also suggests the need for investing more in farmer’s education, , participatory and improved institutional support for climate change adaptation. On an overall basis, the myopic look into matter of impact of climate change that has been taken on multidimensional angles may provide new vistas of plant sciences. The composite analysis finally integrates the findings of qualitative, quantitative ad laboratory experiments in the shape of an innovative matrix.

Based on these findings, it is strongly recommended that some adaptation measures need to be taken for avoiding the impact of climate change on wheat, cotton, sugar cane and rice. Small farmers, being highly vulnerable to climate change should be provided financial and technical support to cope with its negative impact on Net Farm Revenue. A special climate resilient package should be available for the farmers of non-irrigated areas. Similarly, institutional development and regulatory mechanism need to be framed for forest management under change climate scenarios. A strong coordination across agriculture department, forest department and food security ministry should be maintained so as to collectively respond the odd impact of climate change on agriculture and forest trees.

viii Introduction Chapter 1

1.1 Climate Change and it’ General Impacts

Currently, climate change is considered to be a reality throughout the world generally and in a country like Pakistan particularly. The agriculture and forest sectors of the economy are highly prone to the fluctuations of climate change particularly rise in mean tempertaure. The anthropogenic impacts along with the natural disasters are main factors to climate change (Solomon et al., 2007; Newell and Paterson, 2010). Fast climate changes are threatening the lives, revenue, food security and health of the world’s population (Change, 2014). During the last few decades, climate variation, particularly global warming is the main focus of discussion among scientists and policy makers throughout the world. Inter- Government Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001) specified that worldwide average temperature of the surface has increased over the 20th century by around 0.6°C and the warming of the recent 50 years is mostly accredited to human actions (Change, 2001 ; Zhai and Pan, 2003). Variation in the mean temperatures might be associated to alteration in extreme events, linked to the climate’s impact on human society and its environment. A number of scientists and institutions start their projects (IPCC, 1996) to emphasize the importance of research in order to study the impacts of climate change linked to extreme events on earth planet (Easterling et al., 2000).

Figure 1: Showing variations in global mean temperature (oC)

Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 1 Introduction Chapter 1

There is high level of climate vulnerability in South Asia. Among these countries, Pakistan has been declared as the 3rd most vulnerable region to climate change. It is amongst those nations where temperature has touched the dangerous values particularly the affect on rice production. Due to this, production of rice is expected to decline with percentage. It is noted that mountain regions of Pakistan may gain some benefits from warming while arid and semi-arid regions will be badly affected due to this climate change (IPCC, 2014). It is evident that fast climatic changes have negative impact in various parts of the world. This generates noteworthy alarms which could be anticipated to be natural systems that have unavoidable influences on the economic related policies of highland areas through direct and indirect means (Fahad and Wang, 2017). There is an emphasis on numerous influenced aspects like water resources, fisheries, agriculture, human health, forestry, infrastructures, and ecological system, which are deliberated to be vital to our livelihood (Huong et al., 2017). Due to this, winters are becoming excessively cold while summers becoming too hot. This phenomenon is attributed to drought, heavy rains, erosion, and landslides, in addition to extreme weathers in the form of ice, snow and frost (UNDP, 2015).

1.2 Variation In Global Mean Temperature

In many parts of Asia, the yearly average temperature has increased during the twentieth century along with a reduction in amount of cold days and nights. In the arid parts of Asia especially in Pakistan, China and India, the temperatures will probably get higher in the ongoing century. Likewise, monsoon erratic pattern of rainfall is expected to be even more common in Asia (IPCC, 2013). Moreover, since 1960 detected temperature rise persisted to 0.14-0.20 °C through South Asia, along with the drop in winter span and escalation in amount of warm nights and days. For South Asia, the predictable rise in yearly mean temperature for the middle of twenty first century is 3°C (IPCC, 2014). In Pakistan, the average yearly temperature has been augmented by 0.6°C in the last hundred years, whereas the peak temperature escalation was observed to be raised over the previous ten years. In spite of elevated rainfalls, the greater temperature increases evaporation and triggers the scarcity of water. Pakistan is facing inconsistent monsoon in addition to more regular extreme events such as and droughts (GOP, 2010; Zahid and Rasul, 2011). The region wise trend of temperature is shown in Table 1 given below.

Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 2 Introduction Chapter 1

Table 1 Time Series of Temperature across regions of Pakistan.

Sr. No Region Trend during last century Range (oC) Over the thermal low 1 Increased 0.2 to1.0 region 2 Coastal areas () Decreased -0.5 to 1.5 3 Monsoon belt Generally decreased -2.0 to 0.0 Northern Mountains 4 Generally increased -1.5 to 1.5 (Greater ) 5 Thar Increased 0.3 to 1.0 6 Coast Generally increased 0.0 to 0.5 Source (Farooqi et al., 2005)

Climate change is a multidimensional issue of global nature. Some evidence has revealed that the climate of the earth is varying even more quickly than anticipated. With present changes happening in nature, the average worldwide temperature may increase up to 7oC by the end of the 21st century (Vorholz, 2009). The rising temperature is not an isolated phenomenon, but is closely related to changes in magnitude and spatial- temporal dispersal of rainfall, incidence and form of winds and gales and other weather constraints.

1.3 Status of Agriculture Sector

Asia being the world’s most populated continent contains more than 50 % of the population of the world. This continent is responsible for around 67 % of the agronomic production of the world. More than 90% rice and 30% wheat is produced in this continent. Its agronomic region is enormously sensitive to global warming. The projected statistics for rises in temperature ranges between 1.4 - 3.1 °C by the end of 21st century. In this regard, productivity of various crops is projected to decrease in Asia (Mendelsohn, 2017). Punjab is the main contributor of Pakistan`s agriculture production. It has a crucial role in

Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 3 Introduction Chapter 1

meeting food requirements of the increasing population. Around 29% of the total land area is in Punjab. Completely cultivated area is 57% and the entire cropped area of the country is 69%. It donates a lion`s share in total agronomic production and economic development of Pakistan by providing 83% of cotton, 80% of wheat, 97% of fine aromatic rice, 63% of sugarcane and 51% of maize to the national food production system. Among fruits, mango accounts for 66%, citrus more than 95%, guava 82% and dates 34% of total national produce of these fruits (GOP, 2009). The trend in yield over the last twenty years of major crops is given in Table 2.

Table 2: Overtime Trend of Yield in Economically Important Crops (Kgs/Hectare)

Sugarcane Year Wheat Rice Cotton Maize Tons / Kg/hec Kg/hec Kg/hec Kg/hec Kg/hec Hectare 1993-94 1944 1221 493 1297 41.1 1994-95 2154 1258 562 1334 43 1995-96 2081 1358 602 1713 44.4 1996-97 2118 1376 476 1784 39.7 1997-98 2327 1382 494 1799 46.9 1998-99 2226 1458 494 2001 42.8 1999-00 2667 1542 643 1986 40.3 2000-01 2465 1584 609 1883 43.4 2001-02 2392 1535 542 1890 48.4 2002-03 2518 1706 590 2105 45.1 2003-04 2500 1701 549 2385 48 2004-05 2724 1699 753 4073 51.3 2005-06 2588 1804 720 4289 46.3 2006-07 2775 1779 715 4390 52.7 2007-08 2438 1907 636 5040 48.7 2008-09 2694 1842 669 4916 48.5 2009-10 2592 1922 597 4954 51.6 2010-11 2846 1915 607 5444 55.8 2011-12 2737 1912 747 5699 56 2012-13 2855 2032 702 5705 56 2013-14 2861 1924 707 5833 58 2014-15 2763 1943 753 5975 58

Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 4 Introduction Chapter 1

Agriculture is the basis of living for 43.5% of the rural population in Pakistan and accounts for 20.9% of the GDP in 2014-15. In this regard, food security, increased production of agriculture and crops yield is needed. In this regard, to reduce the and to make agriculture sustainable for higher economic growth policies are required to be framed with different essentials like governance and economic fundamentals.

Horticulture, fisheries and livestock are the main priorities of the government. The government is entirely aware of the part of the rustic young generation in evolving services zone and entrepreneurship for value added development of the agricultural sector and its relevance to the enhancement in earnings. Agricultural region is a major care taker of the industries associated to the agriculture and the rural nonfarm economy. Important crops, for example rice, sugarcane, cotton, maize and wheat shares represent 25.6 % of the value in total agriculture and 5.3% of GDP. The other crops are 11.1% of the value added in overall agriculture and 2.3% of GDP. Livestock donates 56.3% to agricultural value added much more than the joint input of important crops, other crops and cotton ginning (39.6 %). Around 45 % of the employed labor force depend on farming for their income. The sector has lost development momentum as its growth decelerated to 2.7 % in 2000’s contrary to 4.4 % in 1990s and 5.4 % in 1980s. This downturn is attributed to the fact that major crops have been victim of climate change (GOP, 2001-12). Pakistan’s agrarian landscape is highly diversified in terms of access to natural resources. The sector is mostly dependent on irrigation water extracted from surface and ground water resources. Punjab and Sind province are rich in agriculture while Khyber Pukhtun Khawa (KPK) and Baluchistan reflect low level agriculture. The sector is facing notable volatility in temperatures and precipitation over time and across the regions.

1.4 Impacts of Climate Change on Economically Important Crops The influence of agriculture on the environment is not merely restricted to the production of food but it has also solid connections with countryside landscape and vivacity, safety, food security and environmental complications such as nutrient overflow and loss. A somewhat newly noted feature in agriculture is its effect on change in climate. Agriculture is a cause of emission of greenhouse gases (GHG’s), such as carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous

Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 5 Introduction Chapter 1

oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) from various cropping and livestock activities. Emissions are produced by farm animal and manure management, energy use, deforestation, fertilization and cultivated soils. One of the biggest emission birthplaces are Agricultural soils. The nitrogen and carbon cycle is disturbed by fertilization and intensive agriculture land management and amplified the discharge of these gases into the atmosphere. When the soil is used extensively for cultivation, then it may reduce the soil organic carbon and this lasts until the soil is under management methods or practices. Nonetheless, agricultural soils still grasps enormous quantities of carbon, which balances the net emissions, and it makes the role of agriculture as complex in climate change (IPCC, 2007). The world is vulnerable and is confronting risks and uncertainties in climate variability across continents and regions. According to the World Development Report (2008), the emerging world may undergo about 80 % damage due to climate change regardless of a third of GHG emission. Climatic changes refer to change in overall weather conditions for longer period of time due to direct or indirect impact of human activities (Zeb et al., 2013). The economies of the majority of developing countries are based on agriculture sector which is vulnerable to climate change; thereby causing reallocation of resources in the agriculture sector and altering the national and international supply pattern of agricultural produce (Deke et al., 2001) Swift urban expansion, growing socio-economic disparity, rising population, great dependency on rare natural assets, official and supremacy letdowns, shortened development of economy attached with untenable growth of economy are chief causes backing susceptibility as compared to environmental changes in emerging nations (IPCC, 2014). It has been noted that the countries falling in the low latitude are more vulnerable to climate change as compared to that of higher latitude (Stern et al., 2006). Smallholders, who are ruling the agricultural systems, have limited capacity to acclimatize to climate change (Müller et al., 2011). In South Asia, 75% of the poor are dependent on rain-fed agricultural systems (World Bank, 2009) and the warming is expected to get higher than the worldwide mean (Christensen et al., 2007). Around 8% decrease in yield was recognized with noteworthy decreases anticipated for wheat (12%) (Knox et al., 2012). According to the National Centre for Atmospheric Research, the subcontinent is witnessing abnormal increase in the monsoon rain which is attributed to the warming up of the Indian Ocean surface waters by 2oF during the last 40 years (Trenberthe, 2010). There has been a feeble monsoon shower in 1987 which triggered a reduction in production particularly of wheat crop. The country has witnessed the worst historical drought that starts in 1998 due to low

Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 6 Introduction Chapter 1

level of rainfall. The dangerous impact of drought can particularly be observed in Baluchistan and Sindh along with rain-fed areas of the Punjab province. Around 2.4 million people have been impacted by drought over the past seven years (OCHA, 2000). Since, it is very likely that drought may reoccur again in Pakistan, there is a dire need of making additional efforts to enable the agricultural system to cope with it effectively. Pakistan falls in the list of top ten countries, which would be most severely affected and highly vulnerable to climate change. Such situation may result in economic losses of $4.5 billion due to yield and productivity shortfalls owing to decreased water and significantly higher temperature (Lead Pakistan, 2008). The country loses around 4.5 billion $ annually due to environmental calamities. The issue to be addressed in the agriculture sector is particularly important as of the majority of the population in the sector is con fronting challenges of food security and poverty. No national research has been pursued to address the impact of climate variability on major crop yield. This research effort is of a new kind so as to help the policy makers in tracing the impact of climate change on major crops in Punjab, Pakistan.

1.5 The Status of Forests and

There is wide variety of diversification in Pakistan as the country has three geographic areas including Oriental, Palearctic and Ethiopian Plates. There are 18 major geographical zones that comes under its ecological control including Sub-alpine scrub, the dry temperate coniferous forest, Himalayan moist temperate forest, Sub- tropical pine forest, Tropical deciduous forest, Steppic forest in the Northern latitude Steppic forest in the Southern latitude, Monsoon-influenced arid sub- tropical. Approximately two-third of the country is hilly and due to sudden variations in elevation within short distances, fluctuations in diversity occur. Forest sectors in different areas of Pakistan include Northern areas which have 0.92 million hectares of land. Sindh has 0.42 million hectares, shares 1.21 million hectares, has 0.69 million hectares of forests and Punjab possesses 0.33 million hectares (GOP 2003). The north part of the country consists of the most vegetation. Forty % of forests of Pakistan are located in KPK, Northern Areas contains 15.7 % and Azad Kashmir accounts for 6.5 % (Poffenberger 2000; Suleri 2002). At a world level, between 1990 and 2015, the natural forest area decreased from 3961 million hectares to 3721million hectares while the amount of increased from 168 million hectares

Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 7 Introduction Chapter 1 to 278 million hectares. From 2010 to 2015, there was a decrease in the tropical forest zone of 5.5 million hectares per year in the 1990s while growth of temperate forests was 2.2 million hectares per year. A little net change was shown by the Boreal and sub- tropical forests. The tropical forest between the years 1990-2015 as in a transitional state from loss to extension or continued to the forest expansion that follows these evolutions (Kenan et al., 2015). According to FAO statistics (2013), the forest area of Pakistan is 1558 (1000 Ha) out of 77088 (1000 Ha) total land area of Pakistan (FAO, 2013). But due to increasing rate of deforestation of 71 K ha y1 (Kenan et al., 2015), Pakistan lost the area of about 8,400 km2 (33.2 %) and about 420 km2 which is about 1.66 % per year between 1990 and 2010 (FAO, 2010). The most recent study at the national level “Land Cover Atlas-2011 of Pakistan” conducted by the Pakistan Forest Institute (PFI) stated a total forest coverage of Pakistan. This is exclusive of alpine pastures, which permits the use without any restrictions, the division, and reproduction in any medium, on condition that the original work is well credited. Due to Pakistan’s large physiographic and climatic contrasts there is a vast variability in species. Several workers have reported the Phytosociological and vegetation analysis of Pakistan forests (Naqvi, 1976, Durrani and Hussain, 2005, Hussain and Shah, 1989, Wahab et al., 2008, Chaudhri, 1960, Hussain, 1969, and Siddiqui et al., 2009, Hussain and Illahi, 1991, Ahmed et al., 2009). In Pakistan, a major proportion of the land area lies in arid and semi-arid zones. The country has very low of 5.7 %. This country has great physiographic and climatic contrasts. Man-made plantations are essential timber sources in Pakistan.

The forest and woodland areas comprise of swamp forests and littoral; tropical dry deciduous forests; tropical thorn forests; sub-tropical broadleaved evergreen forests; sub- tropical pine forests; Himalayan moist temperate forests; Himalayan dry temperate forests; sub-alpine forests; and alpine scrub. Coniferous forests considerably prevail. There irrigated plantations; farmland trees; linear planting; and miscellaneous planting are quite popular. Figure 2 shows forest types in Pakistan.

Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 8 Introduction Chapter 1

Figure 2: Forest Area by Types of Vegetation in 2013-14 (000 ha)

1.6 Degradation of Forest Sector

Population rise is recognized to be the key cause of local climate change (Pielke et al., 2003). With the growing population and human actions, excessive burden is being positioned on arable or productive land, water, energy, and biological resources to deliver a satisfactory food supply while upholding the honor of our ecosystem. Due to rapid suburbanization, variations in river regimes, effects of cultivation shifting, spreading of erosion, and the transformation of land into desserts i.e. desertification, land use changes are taking place. Land use change is unswervingly linked with hydrological cycle (Sreenivasulu and Bhaskar, 2010) and, the key reason for large-scale variations in related ecosystem is any alteration in land use and (Chakraborty, 2009). The main reason for forest degradation is climate change. There are a variety of fauna and flora in the Eastern Himalayas. The Eastern Himalayas forests are affected by change in climate whether it is direct or indirect. The projected change in the climatic behavior will severely affect the forest areas and increased invasion of pests and invasive plants will occur and forest types will change. The review has depicted that the adaptation options adopted are

Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 9 Introduction Chapter 1 not sufficient for fighting change in climate. Adaptation options like controlling forest fires, the creation of areas that are protected will be effective in conserving the forests of Pakistan. For the proper implementation of the adaptation process, there are different hurdles that need to be overcome (Wani et al., 2012). The extension of the farmlands is associated to 60% clearing of the moist forest of tropics for agricultural settlement. Thus it is the main reason of deforestation. It is not necessary that can cause deforestation but it can seriously damage forests (Putz et al., 2001). The Food and Agriculture Organization has been dedicated to assisting countries in their efforts to accelerate and integrate actions to contain deforestation and forest degradation. It is also committed to enhance forest carbon stocks and strengthen the role of forests in building resilience. The enhanced financing necessary for these actions will require increased political will and the recognition of the multiple development and economic benefits of forest related investments. There are ample opportunities to protect forests and enhance forest cover. Enhancing food security requires greater attention and promotion of aspects causative to affirmative trends in security of food and forest cover and need to be further elaborated (FAO, 2016).

1.7 Climatic Factors

Change in climate is mainly a consequence of burning of fossil fuels and, is at present disturbing the temperature of Earth, precipitation, and hydrological cycles. Constant variations in the regularity and strength of heat waves, precipitation, and other extreme climatic events are likely to happen, all of which will influence agricultural production. Also, plant’s productivity can be reduced by compounded climate, resultant in amount escalations for many significant agricultural crops. Hydrological: The hydrologic cycle now comprises further common and powerful droughts and floods in many agricultural areas. Heat: Over the following three to five decades, average temperature will probably gain 1.0 °C. Predicted locally reliant variations comprise growing quantity of waves of heat and warm night time, a decline in the frost days, and a lengthier growing season in temperate regions. Carbon dioxide: During the following 3-5 decades, concentrations of carbon dioxide have escalated to 450 ppmv. The carbon dioxide reaction is anticipated to be greater on C3

Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 10 Introduction Chapter 1 species (rice, wheat and soybean), that account for 95 % of species of world than on C4 species (sorghum and corn). C3 weeds have managed to react favorably to raised carbon dioxide intensities, representing the possibility for escalated weed stress and a further impact on the yield of crops (WDR, 2010). Biodiversity of Crops: The dispersal of wild crop families, an increasingly substantial genetic source for the breeding of crops, will be viciously impacted resulting in a breakdown of their dispersal and possibly their extermination. Economic Consequences: Value will increase for the utmost vital agricultural crops such as wheat, rice, soybeans and maize. At the end it leads to higher feed costs and consequently rise in meat prices. As an outcome, climate variation will decrease the development in meat intake to some extent and cause a more considerable reduction in cereals intake, ending in more food insecurity. The world today is facing uncertainties about climate change in various geographic regions. There is enhanced emission of GHGs causing vulnerabilities for the developing world (WDR, 2010). This indicates that the developing world will undergo about 80 % of the loss from climate change in spite of the fact that they are accounting for only around a third of GHG emission. The resource base of the developing countries is agrarian. The region is susceptible to climate variation economically and physically, thereby causing reallocation of resources in agriculture sector and altering the national and international supply pattern of agricultural produce (Deke et al., 2001). Some of the agronomic studies demonstrate that there is likelihood of a decrease in crop yield if the same crops are developed in the same places under numerous climatic situations (IPCC, 2007). The output of a crop depends on the capability of plant cover to capture the incident radiation, which is a function of the leaf area available, the architecture of vegetation covers and change efficiency of the energy taken by the plant in .

Climate change is adversely affecting the economy of the world. When the economic segment is the agricultural one then the influences are more apparent, mainly in emerging nations. Pakistan is also included in the list of such adverse impact. It was understood that the significance of agriculture arises from adequate micro level study of the country and comparatively scarce macro level studies in which the cross sectional data over the lengthier time periods are used. Therefore, the policy actions for the maintenance of agricultural and rural growth could help control the threats posed by the changes in the climate. All these

Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 11 Introduction Chapter 1 facts are based on modeling scenarios. This demand for the use of a more structural method and more refined research designs, is allowing the investigators to enhance classification amongst different mechanisms at work (Falco et al., 2018 a). It is renowned that a problem with panel data fixed effect models is that a huge part of cross-sectional variation is captivated by specific effects. Consequently, if the difference of temperature shows a minor within time deviation, then the occurrence of measurement faults in weather data might bring a reduction effect. This is biasing the projected coefficient to near zero. This is the typical issue with the data of weather approaching from scattered weather stations. It is vital that the quality and the existence of weather stations tend to be correlated with the level of development of the country. One can conclude that worldwide studies on low-income countries will be more affected by such types of biases. This symbolizes one of the identification challenges in studies pointed at exploring the weather-induced agricultural effects on crops (Falco et al., 2018 b).

1.8 Importance Of Forests

It is noted that forest trees are essential for food security and enhanced source of revenue. They normally raise the pliability of societies by providing energy, fodder, food, shelter and fiber. They are meant for producing revenue and employment to let societies and people flourish. They maintain agriculture and human well-being by steadying soils and climate, and regulating water flows. Around 1.3 billion people are taking advantage of forests (FAO, 2014). Evidences show that 4 monotypic genera and 400 species of Pakistan are endemic. Medicinal plants are a main foundation of medicines for the cure of many health conditions. Pakistan has about 6000 species of wild plants (UNDP, 2010). This includes 700 medicinally important species.

Forests also play a role in maintaining food security and health. These provide fuel wood for cooking and household uses for about 2.4 billion people in the world. The official timber sector contributes $ 600 billion to the worldwide economy which accounts for about 1 % of GDP. An employment for more than 50 million people is being generated in the world from forest related activities. and carbon storing are vital forest ecosystem amenities oriented at reducing or reimbursing these emissions. The loss of

Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 12 Introduction Chapter 1 this facility may affect the incidence and degree of climate variation. Evading emission and growing the carbon sequestration have consequently great mitigation potential. Climate, being influenced by forests, is the key driver of changes in forest ecosystem.

Forest is affected in various ways due to altering CO2 intensities in the atmosphere, varying temperatures and rainfall, or variations in occurrence of dangerous events. For example, moisture and temperature upset the growth rates. Changes in natural disturbance or glacier melting regimes may upset location of forests. Together with current socioeconomic processes, these variations may perturb the ecosystem services delivered by forests. Upholding an active symmetry and flexibility over time and space is vital in the sustained distribution of ecosystem services and goods. Confrontation to alteration is acknowledged as a developing property of forest ecosystems (Drever et al., 2006).

1.9 Climate Change With Respect To Forest Tree Biodiversity in Pakistan

Pakistan is suffering from far more severe forest scarcity than most other countries. The per capita forest area is only 0.024 hectare compared with world average of 1 hectare. This decline is due to increase in human population and deforestation. Threats are also lingering to the natural forests of Pakistan. The country has lowest forest area in the world. With forests covers of 3.9 billion hectares (30 % of the earth’s land), Pakistan is ranked 171 among 187 countries. Only 4.55 million hectares or 5.7 % of its land mass is covered with forests. Malaysia (67.6 %), Sri Lanka (33%), India (23.8 %), China (22.1 %) and Bangladesh (11%) all follow progressive forestry practices (FAO, 2015). Forests also perform an essential part in release of GHGs. Around 20 % of the entire carbon releases spring up from forest degradation and forest cover loss (Houghton, 2003; Houghton, 2005; Denman et al., 2007).

Poverty is thought to be the key cause of forest loss according to FAO and intergovernmental bodies like that of IPCC. Forest misconduct and fraud is one of the chief reasons of deforestation recognized by (FAO, 2001). Unlawful forest practices might contain the sanction of unlawful agreements with enterprises that are privately owned by forestry officers. Unlawful trade of harvesting licenses, under-declaring volumes cut in public forest, underpricing of wood in concessions, harvesting of protected trees by commercial

Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 13 Introduction Chapter 1 corporations are prominent fraudulent practices. These further contains trafficking of forest products through boundaries and letting illegitimate logging, treating forest raw materials without a license (Contreras-Hermosilla, 2000). Deforestation upsets usual weather configurations. It, therefore, generates warmer and drier weather which eventually intensifies drought and , crop failures, and movement of major vegetation regimes. It also disturbs the global water cycle (Bruijnzeel, 2004). The distance travelled by countryside people to reach the forest has enlarged significantly because of deforestation. This is fairly common amongst the people residing nearby Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s forests and in Pakistan’s northern area. They have to travel or in other terms they are enforced to go down to the well remained forests. Deforestation is the severe risk to the natural forests of Pakistan. This is supplemented by countless economic and environmental effects such as soil erosion, landslides, soil degradation, floods and dislocation of people, etc. The yearly rate of deforestation was 43,000 hectares or 2.2 % between 2000 and 2010 whereas the yearly expenses of deforestation have been estimated to be Rs. 206 million to Rs. 334 million (WWF, 2016). It has also been noted that woody biomass is disappearing at a rate of 4 to 6 % per annum. This figure is the second highest in the world. If forest degradation continues at this rate, the entire woody biomass stock of the country is likely to be consumed between 2015 and 2020 (Yusuf, 2009). Some projected estimates tells us that forests would merely last until 2050.

1.10 Missing Forest Policy Linkage

Most of the forest policies in Pakistan follow a normative-autocratic approach. Such an approach is conditioned by colonial traditions of governance and forest management. With very limited forest cover in Pakistan, the task of sustainable forest management demands high level policy mechanisms and effective monitoring and evaluation systems. Community participation can improve the management of forest resources if participation is broadly based, beginning at the planning stage, and involves real devolution of authority (Nizamani and Shah, 2004). The key change required is in attitude on the part of government towards public participation in the policy formulation process. Forests are in high demand due to rapidly growing population. The main request ascends from industrialized wood based area and fuel wood consumption. The monetary valuation of environmental benefits and

Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 14 Introduction Chapter 1 services of forests has not been scrutinized and documented in Pakistan. Any climate change may affect timber production and environmental services derived from it. Forests are particularly sensitive to climate change, because the long life-span of trees does not allow for rapid adaptation to environmental changes. Adaptation measures for forestry are to be planned quite early of expected changes in growing conditions.

1.11 Role Of Forest In Climate’s Mitigation And Identification Of Tree Seeds Using Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM)

Microscopy plays a vital role in the identification of plants on the basis of vegetative morphology and seed morphology. The expert taxonomist identifies the plants by comparing the microscopic characters. The most advanced form of microscopy is Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) that is helpful for the characterization of plants (Johnson et al., 2004). The topographies of seeds morphology stated as valuable tool for the correct taxonomic identification and authentication. Taxonomic description of seed micro-morphology consists of two main steps i.e. definition of seed categories and characters about seed testa (Davitashvili and Karrer, 2009).

The significance of SEM is to study the seed morphology of forest trees in perspective of mitigation of climate change and their authentication using scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The ultimate goal is to formulate some policies to stop or control deforestation. Keeping the whole context of impact of climate on agriculture and forestry in view, there are a variety of questions considered by researchers. As for instance, does temperature and precipitation affect the net farm income in the long spectrum of time? How much is the profitability of small farms is vulnerable to climate change compared to than that of medium and large commercial farms? Do spatial features matter in Pakistan? Are rain fed areas more susceptible to variation in temperature and rainfall? To what extent are the crops and trees sensitive to the availability of irrigation water? What would happen in the decades to come if standard models are employed in estimating the proportional change in net farm income due to change in temperature and rainfall? What kind of science is involved in identification of plants on the basis of vegetative morphology and seed morphology.

Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 15 Introduction Chapter 1

Keeping the above context in view, Pakistan is an unusual region where there are substantial policy gaps due to lack of standard research and vision among stakeholders. A comprehensive and empirical investigation is essential to trace the impact of climate change on economically important crops and tree biodiversity so as to formulate some workable policy matrix regarding adaptation and mitigation. However, the motives behind individual migration inside or through countries, and the degree to which climate variation might be considered as a probable push factor in the migration process, are presently viewed as challenging and delicate topics (Kanta et al., 2018).

A detailed review of literature convinces us that there is dire need of assessing and exploring the economic, social and policy impact of climate change on crops and forest tree biodiversity in Pakistan. Most of the studies pursued at national and international levels have narrated a partial story of impact of climate variability and it change either on agriculture or on forestry. None of these studies have made a comprehensive and coherent effort that could see the impact of climate variability from multidimensional angles and then integrate each dimension through various policy input. Moreover, some studies enhanced our understanding regarding the quantitative analysis of climate change on agriculture and forestry. Similarly, some studies opened the ways and wisdom for making a laboratory analysis of tree specifies for implicitly drawing the impact of climate change on crops and plants. In addition to these deterministic attributes, the review of literature further enhanced our confidence on qualitative approach for tracing the technical and intellectual opinion of academicians, agricultural economists, development thinkers, forest experts, researchers in the broad field of science, and policy makers. Such systematic review analysis strengthened our understanding of how to visualize impact of climate change on agriculture and forest plants. Most of the research gaps so identified have thus been incorporated and tested in pursuing the objectives of this research effort.

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1.12 Objectives of Project

On the basis of above research questions, one can easily claim that some information is available regarding effect of climate alteration on forest and agriculture crops of Pakistan. Therefore, the present study has been planned to keep in view the following objectives.

• To assess the marginal impact of climate on Net Farm Revenue across the regions where major crops are being grown. • To identify the association of climate factors and Net Farm Revenue of small, medium and large holders. • To analyze the role of the forest sector in the climate’s change mitigation and their authentication through Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and to formulate some policies to stop or control deforestation. • To trace the impact of climate variability on agriculture and forestry through in-depth interviews of key Informants. • To tender some policy input for avoiding dangerous impact of climate change on forestry and major crops.

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Review of Literature Chapter 2

2.1 General Impacts Of Climate Change

Ejaz (2017) during an in-depth interview answered questions on the general effect of climate change and role of forests in absorbing the abnormalities of climate. When forests are there the climate could be stable. When forests are cut the calamities’ or natural disasters impact increases. Like 2010 flooding, what happened was the areas more deforested were harmed more. Like in the south are first line of defense against cyclones and winds. When they are cut, the cyclone’s intensity cannot be tolerated. There are many examples like where the forests were present the damages was less and vice versa. The first tsunami which damaged shorelines in Indonesia, Thailand, Sri Lanka was included. In these areas where mangroves were cut, development made, they were damaged a lot. You can see clear differences where the areas were protected by mangroves forest. So climate change scenarios increase with deforestation. If flooding and trees are there, then flow intensity will be slow. If it is barren land, the water will gush through and createmore damage. Gadiwala and Burke (2013) studied the Climate Change and Precipitation in Pakistan -A Meteorological Prospect. The 110 years of mean temperature and precipitation data (1901-2010) of Pakistan reveal an increasing trend of about 0.660C in temperature and an increasing trend of about 106 mm in precipitation.

Klein Tank et al. (2006) studied the changes in indices of climate extremes 116 meteorological stations in central and south Asia were used to obtain the data of precipitation and temperature. The data revealed that both warm and cold end of the maximums and minimum temperatures have got warmer between the years of 1961 and 2000. Concerning the rainfall, most local data of wet extremes depicts very little change in this period as a result of low spatial trend rationality with mixed negative and positive station trends. Comparative to the variations in the total amounts, there is a small sign of uneven fluctuations in the precipitation extremes. Locations with near- complete statistics for the lengthier era of 1901–2000 recommend that the fresh developments in minimum temperature extremes are steady with longstanding trends. However the new progresses in maximum temperature’s extreme are part of multi- decadal erratic pattern of climate

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Review of Literature Chapter 2

Farooqi et al. (2005) reported that since the start of the twentieth century the yearly averaged surface temperature in Pakistan has continuously increased an average of 0.6-1.0°C in the shoreline areas of arid zones, the hyper arid plains and the arid hilly areas. Rise in mean temperature in arid coastal areas, arid mountains and hyper arid plains, in the shoreline belt and hyper arid plains 10-15 % reduction in summer and winter precipitation, especially in the humid and sub humid zones the precipitation in the monsoon zone is increased up to 18-32 %. There is 5 % reduction in comparative humidity in Baluchistan and a 0.5- 0.7 % upsurge in solar radiation over the southern part of country.

2.2 Impacts Of Climate Change On The Agriculture Sector

Climate and climate change is having a serious impact on the agriculture sector. This has been explored and assessed all over the world. Fellman et al. (2018) studied the Chief problems of incorporating agriculture into the mitigation policy framework of climate change. Considering the European Union’s investigation, the application of unvarying countrywide mitigation goals to attain decrease in agrarian non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas releases was simulated. Situation outcomes demonstrated considerable effects on European Union agronomic production, and in particular, the livestock division. Noteworthy increases in imports and reductions in exports end in somewhat modest domestic intake influences but bring production rise in non European Union nations that are related by substantial emission leakage effects. The outcomes emphasize main tasks for the common incorporation of agriculture in nationwide and worldwide climate variation extenuation strategy outlines and tactics, as they reinforce requests for (1) a beleaguered but elasticapplication of extenuation duties on nationwide plus worldwide level and (2) the necessity for a broader thought of technical extenuation possibilities. The fallouts similarly show that a universally effective decrease in agrarian releases call for (3) joint vows for agriculture to control or stop emission leaks and lead to the consideration of (4) Possibilities which deals the reduction of greenhouse gases can be achieved by all communities

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Review of Literature Chapter 2

The research has been continued into the realm of adaptation to climate change. Khanal et al.(2018) studied the Farmers' Adaptation to Climate Change, its determinants and impacts on rice yield in Nepal. This paper discovered the issues that affects the power of making a decision in accepting climate variation adaptation policies and how these adaptations influence farm production. Investigators used a concurrent equations model to examine the differential effects of adaptation on adapters and non-adapters. An internally originating swapping process was engaged to resolve for selectivity bias. Grounded on a survey of 422 rice farmers in Nepal, the fallouts displayed that farmer’s education, access to credit and extension services, familiarity with climate change influences like drought and , info on climate change matters, certainty in climate change and the requirement to acclimatize to all variously govern their decision-making were important. The adaptation tactics employed by farmers would impact on rice yields. Also, outcomes show that both adapters and non-adapters would profit from the adaptation of the recognized policies. This research, consequently, delivers helpful indication for policy creators to take into account farmer’s current information and skills in acclimatizing variations in climate. The results display that if the complete paybacks of such policies are to be adopted then it is necessary to include farmers in the process of planning to adapt against the change in climate, if the full benefits of such policy action are to be realized.

In another study, Smit and Skinner (2002) studied the adaptation options in agriculture to climate change. To avoid the risks and vulnerability to the agriculture due to the climate change a vast variety of adaptation measures have been proposed. In Canadian agriculture the research on the adaptation measures are of four main categories which include the technical developments, the insurance and the government programs, the farm production practices and the farm financial management. Most of the new practices are actually the modification of the old ones. For progress on implementing adaptations to climate change in agriculture there is a need to better understand the relationship between potential adaptation options and existing farm-level and government decision-making processes and risk management frameworks. Moreover, Howden et al. (2007) assessed the idea of adapting agriculture to climate change. There is a strong and urgent need to adapt our

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Review of Literature Chapter 2 agriculture to the future climatic changes. Many options are available at a management level. In the allocation of resources and diversifying livelihood needs more systematic changes are necessary. Adaptations will have many barriers. A comprehensive and dynamic policy approach will be needed to overcome the barriers. A critical constituent of this method is the application of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, healthy, and easily worked by all shareholders, policymakers, experts, and scientists.

Some European climate impact studies are also important as ready references. For example Bozzola et al.(2017) studied a Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on Italian agriculture. This investigation examines the potential influence of warming on Italian agriculture. A thorough dataset of 16,000 farms across Italy was used, the research work inspects probable warming impressions in different areas and for unlike subdivisions of agriculture of Italy. The research discovers that net farm revenues are very sensitive to seasonal variations in temperature and rainfall. Cattle and crop farms have dissimilar reactions to climate as irrigated and rain fed areas. The complete out comes proposes light concerns from marginal variations in climate but progressively damaging effects from more severe climate situations

In another research endeavor, Mendelsohn (2014) studied the Impact of climate change on agriculture in Asia and revealed that Asian agriculture is responsible for two thirds of global agricultural GDP and yet there have been few economic studies of climate impacts for the continent. This study relies on a Ricardian study of China that estimated climate coefficients for Chinese farmers. These coefficients are then used to interpolate potential climate damages across the continent. With carbon fertilization, the model predicts small aggregate effects with a 1.5oC warming over the period of 30 years but damages of about US$84 billion with 3oC warming. India is predicted to be especially vulnerable.

There are some other studies following Ricardian approach. For instance, Mirza and Schmitz (2011) carried out a research using the Ricardian Technique to estimate the impacts of climate change on crop farming in Pakistan.

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Review of Literature Chapter 2

This research used a large household level dataset containing 3336 farming individuals to examine long-term climate influences on farm net crop revenues. They discovered that temperature rises in the main growing seasons can be damaging. Yearly losses for crop farming fluctuating from 100-200 US $ can be estimated. Given an average crop net income of 450US$ per hectare, these influences can be highly deleterious for farmers. The climate impacts will differ across different geographic regions. Temperature is found to be a particularly unfavorable factor for farming in Pakistan. Rainfall variations appear to have a somewhat insignificant influence. Climate change studies and water economics are highly correlated. To this end Piao et al. (2010) studied the impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China which is a major emitter of GHG’s. Many researchers have been studying the influence of China on climate change but not many researchers have studied the impacts of it on China. China may be a particularly susceptible country regarding its economy. Clearly global warming has happened in China over the past decade although present knowledge does not let us have a clear valuation of the influence of manmade climate change on China’s resources of agriculture and water. Ongoing work must progress local climate simulations particularly of rainfall and develop a thorough understanding of the accomplished and unmanaged reactions of crops to variations in climate, pathogens, pests and atmospheric elements.

Morton (2007) studied the impact of climate change on smallholder and subsistence agriculture. The study revealed that some of the utmost significant influences of worldwide climate change will be sensed amongst the inhabitants, mainly in emerging countries. Their susceptibility to climate alteration originates together from being mainly situated in the tropics, and from numerous socioeconomic, demographic, and strategy trends restraining their ability to acclimatize to variation. Yet, these effects will be problematic to model or forecast due to (i) the absence of unvarying definition of these kinds of farming system, and therefore of standard data above the national level, (ii) fundamental features of these systems, chiefly their difficulty, their location-specificity, and their integration of agricultural and nonagricultural livelihood policies, and (iii) their susceptibility to a range of climate-related and other stress factors. Some recent work related to these

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Review of Literature Chapter 2 farming systems has been studied, a theoretical framework for understanding the varied forms of influences in an integrated method is projected, and future study needs are identified (Morton, 2007).

Rosenzweig and Hillel (1995) studied the potential impacts of Climate Change on agriculture and food supply. It appears clear that any important alteration in climate on a worldwide scale must influence indigenous agriculture, and consequently disturb the food supply of world. Substantial research has questioned just how farming may be impacted in different areas, and by how much; and whether the net outcome might be damaging or advantageous, and to whom. Numerous doubts can be posed about the correctness of existing forecasts. One relates to the degree of temperature intensification and its geographical dispersal. Another involves the associate variations in the rainfall forms that regulate the water supply to crops, and to the evaporative demand forced on crops by the warmer climate.

There is a doubt concerning the physiological reaction of crops to enhanced CO2 in the atmosphere. The difficulty in forecasting the upcoming path of agriculture in an altering world is increased by the fundamental complexity of natural agricultural systems, and of the socioeconomic systems governing world food supply and demand.

2.3 Impacts of Climate Change On The Forests

Stevens‐Rumann et al. (2018) studied evidence for declining forest resilience to under climate change. The pliability of the forests is of worldwide concern, considering the possible effects of the augmented disruption activity, warming of the temperatures and increasing of the moisture strains the plants. From a total of 1485 sites from 52 cases of the United States Rocky mountains was to check whether altering climate over the last numerous decades obstructed the regeneration of trees after the fire or not, and if yes whether this was a significant sign of forest flexibility. Consequences show noteworthy reductions in revival of the trees in the twenty first century. Yearly moisture shortfalls were meaningfully greater from 2000 to 2015 as compared to 1985–1999, signifying progressively disapproving post-

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Review of Literature Chapter 2 fire growing circumstances, matching to ominously reduced seedling densities and the potential for enlarged regeneration catastrophes. Dry forests that previously occur at the verge of their climatic patience are most susceptible to conversion to failure of- after wildfires.

Keane et al. (2018) studied the effects of climate change on forest vegetation in the Northern Rockies. Increasing air temperature, through its influence on soil moisture, is expected to cause gradual changes in the abundance and distribution of tree, shrub, and grass species throughout the Northern Rockies, with drought tolerant species becoming more competitive. The earliest changes will be at acetones between life forms (e.g., upper and lower tree lines). Ecological disturbance, including wildfire and insect outbreaks, will be the primary facilitator of vegetation change, and future forest landscapes may be dominated by younger age classes and smaller trees. High- elevation forests will be especially vulnerable to disturbance frequency

Some of the opinions are quite important and Ibrahim (2017) in an in-depth interview expressed the view that there are two types of impacts. One is the climate impact on forest and other is the forest impact on climate. There is global warming and there is rising temperature so many species are affected. Currently we experience that Sheesham is being threatened by climate change which is going to be extinct in few decades. Taxas willichiana, Himalayan hue are now endangered species, threatened for extinction and that is actually due to global warming, precipitation, moisture and some anthropogenic factors. In addition, the more you cut forests the more you release carbon and GHGs into the atmosphere and so temperature rises. So this further contributes to the effects (See Appendix)

Imtiaz (2017) in an in depth interview reported that the monsoon season for thousands of years has had a spring season that starts from 15th February. It forms a set pattern and if there is a change in it, this may be the temporary change leads to a reduction in rainfall or it rains more or it rains early or late. But if this pattern stays for 40 to 50 years then we can say the climate is changing the effect of Climate Change on the forest is that sometimes drought occurs and the weather shifts so the

Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 24

Review of Literature Chapter 2 patterns of the climate change more towards a permanent fix time. 10-20 years back some people used to say that climate change is a fact and some used to say that climate change as fiction but now this concept has been established that the climate change is a fact and due to the climate change the forests as well as agricultural crops are affected. Similarly, Qaim (2017) answered, while giving an in depth interview, that the natural forest resources of the Pakistan are mostly present in the Northern and parts whether it is the north Punjab are the north of KPK and some of them are in the coastal regions. Apart from that all of it is the man made forest, whether they are the riverine forest, like , , defer, Bakhar. Another category is of Scrub forest which is in nearly every province. These are commercially environmentally very important. There is dry zone forest. Now you can see that the climate change is a global phenomenon, you cannot restrict it. The extreme weather events happening like the glaciers are retreating or melting due to global warming. Secondly the pattern of rainfall and snowfall are disturbed. They are affecting other thing also, especially the forests. The abrupt changes are happening and all the cycle are disturbed, the temperature fluctuates, and rainfall changes so at the end it's clear that the forests will suffer.

Alkama and Cescatti (2016) studied biophysical climate impacts of recent changes on global forest cover and revealed that variations in cover of the forest influence the indigenous climate by adjusting the land-atmosphere changes of water and energy. The scale of this biophysical consequence is still discussed in the scientific community and is presently disregarded as part of climate pacts. An evaluation has been based upon the observations of the weather influences of current forest damages and upsurges, grounded on Earth observations of worldwide covers of forests and land surface temperatures. Outcomes display that losses of the forests intensify the daytime temperature deviation and escalates the average and maximum temperature of air, with the biggest increase seen in dry regions, followed by tropical, temperate and boreal areas. During the years between 2003 and 2012, disparities of forest cover produced an average biophysical heating on land equivalent to about 18 % of the worldwide biogeochemical signal because of CO2 release from land use change.

Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 25

Review of Literature Chapter 2

Yousefpour and Hanewinkel (2015) studied the Forestry professional’s perceptions of climate change, impacts and adaptation strategies for forests in south- west Germany. A survey was conducted in South West Germany about the perceptions of the professionals’ on the risks of climate change. The people who completed the questionnaire were the employees of forest private sector etc. They were specifically asked about the related impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems, adaptive forest management and the potential of forestry to mitigate climate change. Many respondents (72 %) said that they felt under informed, but the majority(83 %) seethe changes in climate as an actuality, anthropogenic, and a major hazard. They were specifically worried about the life-threatening dangers, scarcity of water, and alterations in climatic zones. They commonly believed the potential of forestry to mitigate climate change is little, and saw scarce accurate methods like increased harvesting to substitute fossil fuels and energy-intensive materials for mitigation. Apart from being uncertain, adaptation policies like using well adapted tree species and provenances were mainly perceived as supportive, and tools such as spatially-explicit maps with commendations for adapted species and indices of biotic and abiotic risks is significant. The conclusions of the investigation are conversed in the light of the current discussion on climate change in Germany and recommendations made, comprising periodically testing and refining forestry professionals’ information about climate change.

Bukhari and Bajwa (2011) studied the trend of changes in climate over the Pakistan’s coniferous forests. Past trends of coniferous forests of Pakistan between the periods of 1961-2000 of the climatic change were assessed. Climate Research Unit (CRU) –UK at a scale of 50x50 km2 was used to calculate the trends. Over the coniferous forests the regime of temperature was calculated between –12.44°C and 22.54°C. Lowermost temperature was observed in the alpine pastures and upper most in the Subtropical forests of pine. The most warm environment was monsoon which was shadowed by summer. Rainfall was recorded between 266.8 mm - 1071.6 mm. Sub-tropical pine (STP) forests were recorded with the highest precipitation and the lowest was in Alpine pastures (AP). The uppermost rise in maximum temperature (Tmax) was 2.03°C in Alpine pastures through winter, whereas the lowest rise in Tmax was 0.08°C in AP in monosoon. The uppermost escalation in the

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Review of Literature Chapter 2 minimum measurement (Tmin) was 2.61°C in AP in winter and the lowest rise in Tmin was 0.36°C in STP during monsoon. Temperature gain was comparatively larger over AP as compared to other categories of forests. Temperature rise in wintertime was 1-2°C more as matched to other time of year. These results highlight premature beginning of adjustment and diminution action plans to battle impacts of climate variation on coniferous forests.

Besides adaptation to climate change, mitigation is equally important for development thinkers. Canadell and Raupach (2008) studied managing forests for climate change mitigation. Each and every year the forest absorbs billions of tones of

CO2. To mitigate carbon emission through the forests, strategies such as increasing the forested land area through the process of , increasing carbon density of the existing areas, expanding use of forest products and reducing the emissions from deforestation; and reducing degradation are proposed. For the cost effective contribution to the climate protection reducing deforestation has a high potential. Sustainable involvement of tropical regions is essential to take up the full global potential for climate change mitigation through forestry.

Another study is quite relevant in which Lindner et al. (2010) studied the impacts of climate change, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability of European forest ecosystems. The knowledge about the present and the forecasted effects of climate change on the European woodlands were in this study. Forests may have to acclimatize not only to variations in mean climate variables but also to amplified erratic pattern with bigger risk of extreme weather events, such as lengthy drought, floods and storms. Sensitivity, potential impacts, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability to climate change are reviewed for European forests. The most important potential impacts of climate change on forest goods and services are summarized for the Boreal, Temperate Oceanic, Temperate Continental, Mediterranean, and mountainous regions. Especially in northern and western Europe the increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide content and warmer temperatures are expected to result in positive effects on forest growth and wood production, at least in the short–medium term. On the other hand, increasing drought and disturbance risks may cause adverse effects. The risk of drought increases from west to east. In the Mediterranean regions productivity is expected to decline due to strongly increased droughts and fire risks. Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 27

Review of Literature Chapter 2

Air pollution and climate change are significantly correlated. Bytnerowicz et al. (2007) carried out a research on integrated effects of air pollution and climate change on forests: A northern hemisphere perspective. Many air pollutants and greenhouse gases have common sources, contribute to radiation balance, interact in the atmosphere, and affect ecosystems. The impacts on forest ecosystems have been traditionally treated separately for air pollution and climate change. However, the combined effects may significantly differ from the sum of separate effects. We review the links between air pollution and climate change and their interactive effects on northern hemisphere forests. A simultaneous addressing of the air pollution and climate change effects on forests may result in more effective research, management and monitoring as well as better integration of local, national and global environmental policies

The fauna of forests has observable association with climate change studies. Battisti, (2008) studied forests and climate change – lessons from insects. Through the activity of the phytophagous insects the forest ecosystems may be indirectly affected from the change in climate. For several defoliating insects the lower food quality occurs due to the increased level of CO2 in the atmosphere which involves an increase in C/N balance of the plant tissues. The response of the insects is shown by the consumption of more leaves and eventually damaging the plant. Some insects show higher mortality rate and low performance. Due to the change in CO2, the level of plant chemical defense may also be affected. The temperature is affecting either the survival of the insects which are active during the cold period, such as the pine moth, or the synchronization mechanism between the host and the herbivores, as in the case of the larch bud moth. The change in the climate such as increase in the temperature alters the mechanism. The insects adjust themselves and their cycles to the local climate.

A number of studies in North America are quite relevant to the running debate. For instance, Hayhoe et al. (2004)studied emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California. Constant and great escalations in temperature and heat produce noteworthy impressions on the sectors which are sensitive to temperature change in California. Adapting choices are inadequate for effects are not

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Review of Literature Chapter 2 straight forwardly organized by human interference, like the general drop in snow pack and loss of subalpine and alpine forests. Even though inter scenario variances in climate effects and expenses of adaptation arise mainly in the second half of the century, they are mainly entrained by emissions from prior eras. Some scenarios do not openly assume climate-specific policy intervention, and therefore this research does not unswervingly address the difference in effects because of climate change mitigation strategies. Nonetheless, these results support the conclusion that climate change and many of its effects from the the amount and timing of greenhouse gas emissions. As such, they symbolize a firm beginning point for evaluating the result of variations in greenhouse gas emission courses driven by strategies particular to climate and the degree to which lesser releases can decrease the probability and thus risks of “unsafe anthropogenic intrusion with the climate system”.

Moreover, Corlett and Lafrankie (1998) studied the potential impacts of climate change on tropical asian forests through an influence on phenology. A drastic variation in the phenology of the plant will be the first response to fast climate change all over the globe and it’s a threat for both the plants and animals that depend upon plants. In the tropical regions the phonological patterns are the least understood. There is no proof for photoperiod control of phenology in the Asian tropics, and seasonal variations in temperature are a likely factor only near the northern margins. An unscrupulous reaction to water availability is the least liekly for most witnessed patterns where water is seasonally limiting, while the great diversity of phenological patterns in the seasonal tropics suggests an equal diversity of controls. The robustness of current phenological patterns to high inter annual and spatial variability suggests that most plant species will not be seriously affected by the phenological consequences alone of climate change. However, some individual plant species may suffer, and the consequences of changes in plant phenology for flower- and fruit- dependent animals in fragmented forests could be serious.

The science of the forest ecosystem is gaining recognition. Siddiqui et al., (1999) studied the forest ecosystem climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies for Pakistan. To assess influence of climate variation on natural forest ecologies in Pakistan, this study was done for a period of 10 years. 0.3°C

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Review of Literature Chapter 2 increase in temperature was assumed and a rainfall change of 0, +1 and –1 % decade– 1 with 1990 as the base year was recorded. Present concentration of the atmospheric carbon dioxide of 350 ppmv was assumed to elevate to the value of 425 ppmv in the year 2020, 500 ppm in year 2050 and 575 ppm in 2080. Computer simulation (BIOME3 model) was used for 9 dominant plant types, or biomes. Of these, 3 biomes (alpine tundra, grassland/arid woodlands and deserts) showed a reduction in their area, and 5 biomes (cold conifer/mixed woodland, cold conifer/mixed forests, temperate conifer/mixed forests, warm conifer/ mixed forests, and steppe/arid shrub lands) showed an increase in their area as a result of climate change.

In another study, Pastor and Post, (1988) reported the response of northern forests to CO2 induced climate change. Climate variations subsequent from rises in atmospheric CO2 are anticipated to change forest efficiency and species distributions.. Here we report an inquiry into the likely responses of northeastern North American forests to a warmer and usually drier climate by driving a linked forest productivity/soil process model with climate model predictions corresponding to a doubling of CO2. The highest changes happened at the current boreal/cool temperate forest border. Simulated productivity and biomass amplified on soils that reserved adequate water for tree growth and reduced on soils with insufficient water. Simulated changes in vegetation configuration changed soil nitrogen accessibility, which in turn improved the vegetation changes. The simulated responses of the forests were fallouts of a constructive response amid carbon and nitrogen cycles, confined by negative constraints of soil moisture availability and temperature.

2.4 Use of Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) for Identification of Tree Seeds

The seedling traits can produce important taxonomic characters helpful in demarcation of different plant groups. Seed morphology has delivered numerous practical characters to observe the methodical associations in huge diversity of families of plants (Buss et al., 2001; Gontcharova et al., 2009). The sculpturing structures of exterior seed coat are fairly variable in addition to morphological qualities of seeds amidun like types and could be evidenced significant methodically (Al-Gohary and Mohamed, 2007). The external surface features in addition to seed

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Review of Literature Chapter 2 characters, uncovered by help of SEM have been extensively employed in cracking a number of complications in systematic and phylogenetic association of species (Koul et al., 2000). In order to review the classification of species and phenetic linkages, the significance of examining ultra-structural form of the coat of seed under scanning electron microscopy has been soundly recognized (Koul et al., 2000; Yoshizaki, 2003). Scanning electron microscopy includes great enlargement with ultra-structure reasonable details that would agree to the finding of qualitative differences unattainable to examine using optical microscopy (Belhadj et al., 2007).

In another study, Polhill, (1976) used Light Microscopy (LM) and scanning electron microscopy in tribe Genisteae to establish the significance of characteristic seed coat form in delimitation of species within tribe. Brisson and Peterson, (1976) acknowledged that seed coat parameters may play a vital part in the species identification with two important factors such as variation in the population belonging to numerous ecological regions and unsystematic genetic versatility amongst populations. The abundant studies have been reliant on morphological characters of seeds concerning seed size, texture, helium size and exterior shape concerning seed identification (Gunn, 1971). Advancements of scanning electron microscopy practices in exploring the seed structural characters has been established to be found helpful for elaborative research of seed surface pattern. The study of seed coat pattern of dissimilar plant species using Scanning electron microscope (SEM) has already been observed.

The parameters of seed coat are generally consistent and largely affected by exterior environmental influences such as the ripening that happens within the fruit and seed growth (Barthlott, 1981). The data on micro-morphological characters and ultra-structure have delivered important information for the catalogue of seed plants and phylogenetic information. A notable position is also obtained on the new synthetic systems of angiosperms (Dahlgren, 1983). The SEM has delivered a profound understanding if the sculpturing and of the surface of the seed coat and because at some places gross morphological data has proved inadequate. These two parameters have been described as valued at infra-generic and generic level in taxonomy (Brisson and Peterson, 1976). Heyn and Herrnstadt, (1977) used scanning

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Review of Literature Chapter 2 electron microscopy method to reveal many taxonomically important differences in seed surface patterns of Lupinus. Attar et al., (2007) assessed the micro morphological characters of seeds and capsule surface of more than 22 species present in Iran. Cabi et al., (2011) used light microscope (LM) and SEM to examine the seed morphology of Verbascum taxa and their systematic implications.

Moreover, Qaiser (1987) studied the seed morphology of the family Tamaricaceae from Pakistan. Rashid et al., (2018) utilized scanning electron microscope to study intra specific differences in seed morphology of tribe Vicieae. In Pakistan, scanning electron microscopy has also been used as a verification tool for oil yielding seeds. This can be supportive for quality control and to explore the novel aspects of plant species

Morphology of pollen grains like seed morphology is very important for plant identification and recognition found in various environments for which palynological information provide precious confirmation about closely related genera and species (Arora and Modi, 2008). Several authors confirmed the identification and differentiation of narrowly associated and challenging taxa using valuable information from palynological investigations (Quamar et al., 2018). SEM and Light microscopy are of special interest to examine numerous taxonomic features (Khan et al., 2017). The palynological evidence is an important parameter to forecast evolution. The comprehensive and novel pollen analysis could provide better determination keys. These pollen keys might provide a reference point for pollen analysis by botanists, metrologists, archaeologists, immunologists, geologists and eco-botanists (Erdtman, 1986).

Pollen investigations also provide a significant crucial material for the investigation of pollinator biology, allergies such as pollinosis and seasonal allergic rhinitis, paleoclimate and paleo-vegetation analysis (Devender et al., 2016). The new types of staining methods, plentiful collections of palynomorphs and micro photographic techniques show the way to palynologists to distinguish pollen diversity and use to differentiate between closely related groups as well as challenging taxa. The pollen micrographs representing pollen differentiation of several taxa without

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Review of Literature Chapter 2 detail explanation have been published (Hesse, 1980).In recent times, scanning electron microscopy has turned out to be vital on investigations of the micro morphological pollen analysis (Zheng et al., 2008). These micro-palyno- morphological characters have proved supplementary to the general and are significant in evolutionary plant biology (Khan et al.,2018).

Pollen morphology is highly diverse and possesses unique taxonomic importance(Sengupta, 1972). Many researchers evaluate the pollen characters for systematic purposes (Ashfaq et al., 2018). Pollen morphology of the family Liliaceae and pollen description of Lilium taxa has been examined by different authors with LM and SEM (Baranova, 1985). Bhunia and Mondal, (2012) undertook palynological study on the aquatic medicinal plants of Mimosaceae. SEM also delivered detailed information about the phylogenetic and evolutionary study of the family Cyperaceae (Ghosh and Karmakar, 2017).

Ashfaq et al. (2017) investigated playnological features of Convolvulaceae species using LM and SEM from arid zones of Pakistan. Bahadur et al.,(2017) identified monocot flora using pollen features through the use of Scanning electron microscope. Ullah et al., (2018) conducted a study on pollen morphology of subfamily Caryophylloideae (Caryophyllaceae) and its taxonomic significance The morpho-palynological study of Cyperaceae was conducted from wetlands of Jammu and Kashmir using SEM and LM (Butt et al., 2018). Sufyan et al., (2018)identified medicinally important flora using pollen features imaged in the Scanning Electron Microscopy in the Lower Margalla Hills Islamabad, Pakistan.

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Materials and Methods Chapter 3

3.1 Climate Change Study The process of climate change, global warming, increases temperatures, erratic rainfall patterns and the mitigation techniques with respect to the forests were deeply studied with the help of several research and review papers. This study helped in understanding the role of these tree species in the crop along with the changes in climate changes. Some raw data of secondary nature from the meteorological department was also collected in order to see the overtime changes happening due to climate change.

3.2 Impact of Climate Variability On Economically Important Crops 3.2.1 Study area

Pakistan, geographically situated in South Asia, is located over an area of 87.98 million hectares (24° N-37° N Latitude and 61°E - 76°E Longitudes). A huge tract of land is arid with low rainfall and higher solar radiation. The climatic diversity of the country is attributed to topography, altitude and season. Winter (December to March) and summer monsoons (July to September) are the typical rainfall seasons in the country. There is insignificant rain in the transition periods. There is continental type of climate substantially varying across region due to altitude and topology. Climatically, the country lies in the tropic of cancer and is greatly diversified with four distinct seasons i.e. summer, winter, autumn and spring. It lies in the sub- tropical region and is arid to semi-arid in nature. The rainfall pattern varies in different parts of the country, e.g. the yearly rainfall varies from 125 mm in the extreme south to 500 mm in the sub mountainous and northern regions. About 70 % of the total rainfall occurs in the summer monsoons (July to September) and the rest (30 %) occurs in winter (January – February). Summers, except in the mountainous region are very hot in the country with a maximum temperature of more than 40oC. In winters, the minimum temperature is a few degrees above freezing point. Cultivation is mainly done in the two distinct cropping seasons i.e. the Khraif (summer) and Rabi (winter). Agriculture is the back bone of Pakistan’s economy.

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Materials and Methods Chapter 3

3.2.2 Crop Selection The most economically important rabi and kharif crops were selected which included wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), rice (Oryza sativa L.), sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.) and cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.). All the yield data and economic data of the farmers were collected from the field. The data were collected through a questionnaire. All the information was generated about all the expenses on specified crops and earnings of a farmer in order to get the net farm revenue.

3.2.3 Sampling Framework

There were a number of issues related to sampling for conducting primary data from the farmer’s fields. After discussing with experts in sampling from the Federal Bureau of Statistics, Pakistan, and by developing some logic on the basis of observation, it was decided that a Multistage Purposive and Stratified Random Sampling Technique was operated for conducting the field survey (as per questionnaire attached in Appendix). Care was made in the sampling frame that the specific cropping zones are included along with respective weather stations. It was ensured that a large number of farmers growing major crops become the part of sample. Moreover, a great deal of variability of temperatures and precipitations which is the fundamental characteristic of Ricardian studies was deliberately maintained. From each agro-climatic zone (Appendix ), all such districts were selected with such a specific purpose as each could fall in the region where weather stations were available and data were accessible for a reasonable time period. In order to maintain further variability in the data, a few more districts were picked from left-over districts in each zone. These selected districts fall between those of two districts where weather stations were operated so that the average temperature, humidity and precipitation in these nearby districts could be used as a proxy for the newly selected districts at this stage. For Instance, in the Rice-Wheat zone of the Punjab province, Gujranwala (Where is no weather station) falls between and (there are weather stations). The averages of climatic variables available from Lahore and Sialkot were used for the mean sample of Gujranwala.

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Materials and Methods Chapter 3

In third stage, from the selected districts of first and second stages, tehsils/union councils were taken from two different geographic locations (East and West of the region for instance). From each of such selected tehsils/union councils, a specific numbers of villages were taken as a part of the sample on a random basis. From each village, strata of small, medium and large farms were made keeping the population size in view and from each stratum, farmers were picked on random basis. Agro climatic zones have been developed keeping the respective temperature, precipitation, soil and environmental conditions in view. The nature and ecological characteristics of each selected agricultural farms in each zone may vary across time and region. Similarly, the weather stations were established to show the typical climatic nature of the area. There is quite likely that with the passage of time, the climatic features associated to a particular zone have been changed (See Appendix ). Table 3 The Sampling configuration of Agricultural Sector

Sr. Agro. Climatic Zones Districts Sample Size No. in numbers Rice-Wheat Punjab Sialkot, Lahore, Kasur, Sheikhupura, 59 1 Gujranwala, Gujrat Cotton-Wheat Punjab & Sahiwal, , Multan, Lodhran, 2 Cotton-Rice Punjab , 102 Bahawalnagar, R.Y Khan, 3 Low Intensity Punjab Mianwali, Layyah, Mazfar Garh, 61 D.G.Khan D. I. Khan 4 Mixed Punjab Sargodha, Faisalabad, T.T Singh, 75 Okara, Jhang 5 Barani Punjab , , Chakwal, 48 TOTAL SAMPLE SIZE 345 3.2.4 Multistage Purposive Stratified Random Sampling • Selection of specific cropping zones. • Selection of all districts with weather stations • Selection of few districts without weather stations • Selection of tehsils/union councils from each district • Selection of villages from diversified geo-locations • Selection of small, medium and large farms growing major crops. • Random selection of farmers from each category of farms.

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Materials and Methods Chapter 3

Plate 1a: Rice field in district Gujranwala in August 2018 (Punjab)

Plate 1b: Rice field in Hafizabad September 2018 (Punjab)

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Materials and Methods Chapter 3

Plate 1c: Sugarcane field in Sahiwal in November 2018 (Punjab)

Plate 1d: Cotton field in September 2018 (Punjab)

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Materials and Methods Chapter 3

Plate 2a: Documentation of data during field survey (Punjab)

Plate 2b: Collecting information from the local farmer (Punjab)

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Materials and Methods Chapter 3

3.2.5 Secondary Data Documentation of Climatic Variables

From different metrological stations from Islamabad, Lahore and , some secondary data of time series nature were collected on mean daily extreme and least temperature, amount of rainfall and relative humidity. For different stations, a time series of different years is available. From some stations, the availability of data is from 1981 while in some newly established cases it is starting from 1990. Both the data sets are consistently comparable for research purpose. The averages of these years for such climatic variables were taken from these Head offices not only of districts where weather stations are working but also of such districts which were part of our sample. As far as the effect of climate variability on the agriculture of Pakistan is concerned, there are a variety of questions in the minds of researchers. As for instance, to what extent does temperature and precipitation affect the net farm income over time? How much is the profitability of small farms is vulnerable to climate change than that of the medium and large commercial farms? Are rain fed areas more vulnerable to variation in temperature and rainfall? How sensitive are some of the crops to the availability of irrigation water?

3.2.6 The Ricardian Model These questions have been addressed through the well-recognized Ricardian Model (RM hereafter) while following a cross-sectional analysis in selected . By employing RM we would be hypothesizing the fact that how with more overtime climatic changes, there is change in Net Farm Revenue (NFR) per hectare. RM is the fundamental approach that explains the disparity in land value per hectare across climate regions (Mendelsohn, 1994). Since Ricardian function reflects the locus of the most profitable farm enterprise with respect to both exogenous and endogenous variables, less profitable alternatives are not included in the net income function. The Ricardian function inherently accommodates the adaptations that are profitable for each temperature or price level. We can use NFR because land worth is the present price of a future stream of net revenue. Thus, we are using NFR per unit of land for determining the value or rent of land on hectare basis as per academic practice . (Ricardio,1817

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Materials and Methods Chapter 3

In RM, we are supposing that the farmer pursues maximization of income subject to both exogenous and endogenous conditions of his farm. In this way, the farmer being a rational producer opts the crop and respective inputs that maximize profit (or minimize cost).

Max. NFR= Σ Pq .Qi (Xi, Li, Ki, C, S, IW) – Σ Px.Xi – ΣPl.Li – ΣPk.Ki – Σ Pf.Fj – ΣPiw. W

This equation (i) explains how Net Farm Revenue is estimated by deducting all kinds of explicit and implicit costs from the total revenue generated after selling the product of crops. NFR is Net Revenue; Pq stands for market prices of crop output i, Qi is the Production function for crop i ; Xi = is vector of annual in- puts used for growing of crops i; Li is vector of labour (both hired and household) for each crop i; Ki= is vector of capital (tractor and farm equipment) for crop i; C shows vector of climate variables: temperature and precipitation; S indicates soil type for the growing of crops; IW reflects irrigation water available for the crops; Px. Xi shows vector of prices of inputs for crops i; Pl. Li is vector of prices for each type of labour employed for crop i, Pk. Ki is vector of prices for each type of capital employed for crop and Piw. W is vector of prices for irrigation water for all the crops in a year. Given the non-climatic variables, in order to maximize NFR, we can express the outcome of NFR in terms of climatic variables NFR = f(C) In this way, by employing RM we hypothesized the fact that how with more extreme climatic changes, there is a change in NFR per hectare. We can filter out the welfare value of a change in climate from one situation (Co) to another situation (Ci) by employing the following expressions W = NFR land (Ci) – NFR land (Co) One should be careful in developing generalization because RM neither takes into account the cost of transition (Kelly, 2005) nor price changes (Cline,1996). When prices are kept constant, there may be likelihood of underestimation of damages and over-estimation of benefits. The RM is an empirical tool to capture the sensitivity of agricultural production to climate change based on cross sectional data. No doubt these are the significant limitations but not the extreme ones (Mendelsohn et al., 1994).

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Materials and Methods Chapter 3

3.2.7 Ricardian Regression and Econometric Specifications In the RM, we are to regress net revenue per hectare on climate and other explanatory variables. As revealed from various studies, there is non-linear relationship between NR and climate (temperature and rainfall). So, a quadratic functional form is being proposed to be operated in the Ricardian regression. By specifying the following model, we would trace the effect of climate variation on Pakistan’s agriculture keeping major crops in view e.g. cotton, rice, sugar cane and wheat. NFR= α + β1 T + β2 T2 + β3R + β4R2 + β5H + β6H2 + ΣγiZi + μ NFR as estimated from equation (i) is the net revenue on per hectare basis as generated from all the crops being grown by a particular farmer; T is the vector of temperature for some specific critical months (corresponding to the cropping season of each major crop being cultivated by the respondent farmers); R is vector of rainfall for some critical periods (corresponding to cropping months of each crop being cultivated); Zi shows a vector showing all the control variables (including socio economic variables); μ is error term. α is the intercept coefficient, β1 and β2 are coefficients attributed to all the possible temperature specifications while β3 and β4 are the coefficients attributed to rainfall and rainfall square respectively. β5 and β6 stands for linear and non-linear coefficients of Relative Humidity. The coefficients γi are attributed to all the non-climatic variables that can be included in the model. Schlenker and Roberts, (2008) identified a non-linear relationship (threshold pattern) between crop yields and temperatures. They noticed that as temperatures rise above empirical threshold, crop yields decline drastically. On the other hand, the de- cline is small with a temperature drop below that specific threshold. Change in NFR from a Marginal Change in climate variables δNR/δT = β1 + 2 * β2 * (Mean Temperature) δNR/δR = β3 + 2 * β4 * (Mean Rainfall) δNR/δH= β5 + 2 * β6 * (Mean Humidity) In the RM, we regressed NFR per hectare on climate and other explanatory variables. As revealed from various studies, there is non-linear relationship between NFR and climate (temperature and rainfall). So, a quadratic functional form was

Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 42

Materials and Methods Chapter 3 operated in the Ricardian regression. We are going to testify to the fact that change in temperature and or rainfall leads to some changes in productivity and profitability of the farms differently at different farm levels. It was also tested that small household farms were differently vulnerable than those of large farms to climate change.

3.3 In-Depth Interviews

Questionnaire-based interviews of forestry professionals, experts, teachers, workers, stakeholders and policy makers were recorded via the audio recorder. The audio interviews were transcribed (converted to the text form). Answers were written under each of their respective questions. Then those studies were matched or compared with the international researches done on those respective aspects discussed in the answers. List of the experts from whom in-depth Interviews were conducted has been provided in Appendix . In-depth interviews of the agricultural and forestry professionals from the different areas were taken. Their views regarding the climate change and its impacts on the forestry sector were recorded. Related and logical questions based on literary support were designed. While visiting the forest’s officials’ photographic evidence was obtained in order to compare them with the previously taken photographs of respected areas. The main people who were interviewed were Government personnel, ministry representatives, policy makers, academic professionals and other stake holders. They were interviewed about their experiences, knowledge, and perspective. The aim was to know their thoughts as professionals, what did they observe regarding variations in climate and its impacts on agriculture and forests. These interviews traced the narratives of various experts’ impression of climate change on Pakistan’s forests. Both the implicit and explicit understanding of these narratives were evaluated by associating the outcomes of prior research with the point of views of key informants, agricultural experts, policy analysts and makers who have been contacted for interview. At some places these qualitative imperatives were also linked to the quantitative results taken from Ricardian regression as explained somewhere else in this dissertation. The analysis has been conducted in

Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 43

Materials and Methods Chapter 3 such a way that the present status of forests amidst climate change could be mapped appropriately and future adaptation strategies be highlighted through some policy input. For synchronizing the subject matter, some schematic diagrams have also been established for developing simplicity in the issues. After making this qualitative analysis and establishing its association with quantitative studies, some strategic and policy imperatives have been drawn at the end of this dissertation. An integrated approach has been followed to arrive at the final policy messages.

Plate 3a: Documentation of data from resource person

Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 44

Materials and Methods Chapter 3

Plate 3b: Data Documentation using Questionnaire for Interview

Plate 3c: Data Documentation Using Open Discussion

Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 45

Materials and Methods Chapter 3

3.4 Ethnobotanical Data Documentation 3.4.1 Study sites

Pakistan spans about 881,913 sq. km’s (340,509 square miles). It possesses a 1046 kilometers (650 miles) shoreline alongside the and Oman’s gulf in the south and is adjoined by India in the east, Afghanistan is present in the west, Iran located south west, and China located distant north east. It is divided closely from Tajikistan by Afghanistan's Wakhan Passage in the northwest, and also bonds an oceanic boundary with Oman. The forestry sector of our country is a key provider of wood, fuel wood, paper, latex, drugs along with the food and provides tourism and preservation purposes. Pakistan’s land comprises forests with less than 4 % area of total land (Figure 3). The ethnobotanical data of the economically and medicinally important tree species was documented. The information was documented from local informants using questionnaire.

3.4.2 SEM Analysis of Seed of Forest Tress. Microscopic investigation has been conducted on eight medicinally important tree species. The species include; Acacia modesta, Acacia nilotica, Albizia lebbeck, Averrhoa carambola, Azadirachta indica, Eucalyptus citriodora , Pongamia pinnata. Seeds of these trees were collected during different seasons in various parts of Pakistan. After washing with 70 % ethyl alcohol seeds were put into different stubs. By using Scanning electron microscope installed in the Central Resource Library (CRL) Department of Physics University of seeds were scanned. And seed scanning photographs were taken.

Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 46

Materials and Methods Chapter 3

Figure 3: Map of the study area

Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 47

Materials and Methods Chapter 3

3.4.3 Mixed Method Approach

Keeping the complex and comprehensive nature of this study in view, a mixed method approach has been used so as to understand the impact of climate change on agriculture and forestry both at micro level and macro level. Some of the narratives developed through in-depth interviews are made cognizant to the quantitative findings as estimated through Ricardian Regressions. All these results were also associated to laboratory related experiments in the shape of Scanning Electron Microscopy. There might be direct association or indirect associations of results in all these methods. Even in the estimation of impact of climate change on major crops, both primary data and secondary data have been clubbed together to visualize a broad picture climate impact. Primary data was of farms while secondary data was taken of climatic variables in time series sequence. While discussing the results, the attributes of coherence and consistency have been maintained. Moreover, the narratives developed from in-depth interviews were related to some existing body of literature either the same is justified or going against the findings.

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Results and Discussion Chapter 4

4.1 Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Crops

4.1.1 Farmers Perception About Climate Change

This perception was gauged from the farmers during the cropping year 2016- 17 but farming experience and field observation for the last one decade was taken into consideration. Keeping the fact that farmer is a rational producer and thus optimizes the cost and revenue solution on changing pattern of climate along with other socio- economic factors. Generally, a recall method is applied for such kind of perception of the respondents/farmers. Around 94.8 % farmers held the opinion that there was some effect of climate alteration on crop production as against merely 5.2 % farmers who denied any such impact. Among those who advocated the climate impact, around 12 % felt that it was in the shape of increasing crop production while 82.6 % farmers perceived it in terms of decreasing production trends. It was further realized that around 78 % farmers did not follow any adaptation measures to climate change. Only about 22 % farmers mostly in the category of large farms started adaptation practices (change of variety, time of sowing, time and number of irrigations, etc.) to avoid adverse effect of climate change. About 95 % farmers agreed that there was long term shift in temperature; 87.25 % voted in favor of increase in temperature while rest (7.5 %) perceived decreasing temperature overtime. The farming community who made some adjustment to such a shift in temperature was 35.4 %. A large chunk of farmers (64.6 %) did not do any adjustment to either increase or decrease in temperature. Similarly, around 83 % farmers noticed a long-term shift in rainfall among which 52.2 % watched an increasing rainfall while 30.7 % perceived decreasing trends in rainfall. About 17.1 % farmers denied any long-term shift in rainfall. A good number of farmers (42.3 %) have started adjusting to shift in rainfall among which 19.1 % reported the increase in the uses of tube well to compensate the deficiency of irrigation water.

Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 49

Results and Discussion Chapter 4

Table 4: Farmers Perception about Climate Change

Increasing Decreasing Qualitative Categories Yes No Trend Trend (%) (%) (%) (%) Advice from extension workers 40.9 59.1 Information from Extension 13.9 86.1 workers regarding expected Credit Taken 10.1 89.9 Shift in temperature noticed 94.7 5.3 87.2 7.5 Adjustment made to such a shift 35.4 64.6 Soil condition improved over 38.8 61.2 More fertile soil overtime 35.1 64.9 Increase in Soil erosion 15.1 84.9 Increase moisture availability 37.7 62.3 Shift in rainfall noticed 82.9 17.1 52.2 30.7 Adjustment made to such a shift 23.2 57.7 19.1 (uses of tube Impact of climate change on Crop 94.8 5.2 12.2 82.6 Production Followed Adaptation Strategies 22.3 77.7 to climate change

Climate change also badly distorts the soil condition and thus soil erosion may be the outcome. Around 61 % farmers reported that there was no improvement in the soil condition overtime while about 39 % watched some improvement of soil in their fields. Similarly, 15 % farmers reported the case of increase in soil erosion but a significant proportion of farmers (85 %) denied the issue of soil erosion. But at the same time, about 65 % farmers did not agree that overtime the soil fertility had improved. On the other hand, 35 % farmers found their soils going to be fertile over time. According to 37.7 % farmers, there has been an increase in the moisture availability while others (62.3 %) responded that there was no increase in moisture availability. Most of such perceptions are quite associated to secondary data. It is interesting to note that around 41 % farmers were taking advice from extension workers and only about 14 % reported that extension workers provided them information regarding expected rainfall. 86 % farmers did not receive any such information. Around 90 % farmers did not take any credit for continuing their farming activities.

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Results and Discussion Chapter 4

4.1.2 Yield Perspectives of Sampled Farmers

The field survey revealed that there is substantial difference of yield across agricultural farms of various sizes. Similarly, huge difference of yield per hectare was found between irrigated and non-irrigated farms. Irrigated farms were yielding more than double than that of non-irrigated farms. Small farmers were having lower yield as compared to medium and large famers. The highest yield was being enjoyed by large farmers in the study areas as shown in the graph given below (Figure 4). Small farmers cultivate up 5 hectares of land, medium range farmers occupy a piece of land in the range of 5 to 10 hectares while farmers holding land above 10 hectares are considered as large farmers. Irrespective of large or small category of farmers, irrigated regions include all other districts except Rawalpindi and Jhelum which are falling in non-irrigated regions. These are statistically best representative of the respective regions and allied categories.

NFR in Dollar terms per hectare per annum per hectare terms per in Dollar NFR

Farmer Categories on the basis of Farm Size/Regions

Figure 4: Net farm revenue in US $ per Hectare by different farmers

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Results and Discussion Chapter 4

4.2 Ricardian Analysis Ricardian Regressions is a vital tool for tracing impact of climate change on agriculture. A variety of options relating to climatic variables were examined to identify the influence of climate variability on Net Farm Revenue (NFR). Initially the examination was made by taking Rabi and Kharif temperatures, rainfall and humidity along with non- climatic variables. Similarly, the impact was also further evaluated on the basis of winter, spring, summer and fall temperatures in addition to precipitation and humidity. In some econometric specifications, temperature and precipitations were also used as an interaction term so as to identify the collective impact of simultaneous change in precipitation and temperature in some particular seasons. All such treatments were made not only on overall data but on the basis of small, medium and large farms as well. Irrigated and non-irrigated farms were also taken into consideration while estimating marginal impacts of climate and non- climate variables. Impact of Rabi and Kharif Data of Climatic Variables on NFR was evaluated.

The median Ricardian regression results indicated that climate variables have noteworthy effects on NFR in Punjab province. Rabi maximum temperature was linearly negatively associated with NFR while its non-linear interaction term was positively associated. Such results were only significant for large and irrigated farmers. Similarly, Rabi minimum temperature depicted U-shaped NFR function while Kharif minimum temperature was positively associated with NFR except for irrigated farms. Rabi and Kharif rainfall showed hill shaped and U shaped functions respectively for all categories of farms except under non-irrigated situation where there was negative association of Rabi rainfall to NFR and positive association of Kharif rainfall with NFR. Sandy and clayey soils were found to be negatively associated to net farm revenue while loamy soil is positively associated for large farming community. The findings of Dummy of Barani (rain fed) districts and Southern districts showed that NFR would go down as the region was diverted to arid and region with high temperature. Years of schooling of the farmers was found to be positively correlated with NFR. Same was the association with size of farms and farming experience though with lower extent (Table 5).

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Results and Discussion Chapter 4

Table 5: Median Ricardian Regression: Rabi Maximum and Minimum Temperatures Rainfalls, Dummies and Socio-Economic Variables Median regression Number OF Obs. 345 Raw sum of deviations 355165.2 (about 1769.9731) Min sum of deviations 234984 Pseudo R2 0.3384 Standard [95% NFR Coefficient T P>t Interval error Conf. Independent Variables RTEMPMX -8187.137 6458.799 -1.27 0.206 -20893.47 4519.193 KTEMPMX 40509.86 10392.71 3.9 0 20064.39 60955.33 RTEMPMN -10501.45 2920.92 -3.6 0 -16247.74 -4755.15 KTEMPMN 365.2495 3909.529 0.09 0.926 -7325.929 8056.427 RRAINFALL 336.4509 94.14888 3.57 0 151.2328 521.6691 KRAINFALL -93.60748 32.4761 -2.88 0.004 -157.4974 -29.7176 RTEMPMXsq 171.5495 122.727 1.4 0.163 -69.89008 412.989 KTEMPMXsq -555.6536 140.0092 -3.97 0 -831.0924 -280.215 RTEMPMNsq 414.9405 127.3158 3.26 0.001 164.4733 665.4077 KTEMPMNsq 13.87648 80.83635 0.17 0.864 -145.1521 172.905 RRAINFALLsq -9.861628 2.223584 -4.44 0 -14.23606 -5.48719 KRAINFALLsq 0.7826005 0.222786 3.51 0.001 0.3443142 1.220887 SDUMMY1 -257.9562 136.4965 -1.89 0.06 -526.4844 10.57204 SDUMMY2 -191.9253 112.5232 -1.71 0.089 -413.2911 29.44048 DDUMMY1 -1448.473 317.9061 -4.56 0 -2073.887 -823.06 DDUMMY2 -233.9078 198.1264 -1.18 0.239 -623.6799 155.8643 Farmer’s literacy 18.09682 9.650748 1.88 0.062 -0.888997 37.08265 FSIZE 14.45953 4.773947 3.03 0.003 5.067795 23.85127 FARMEXP 2.200612 3.247057 0.68 0.498 -4.187291 8.588515 _cons -591271.6 139713.4 -4.23 0 -866128.4 -316415

Overall median results reflected that higher Kharif maximum temperature and Rabi minimum temperature could reduce the income from cultivation of these major crops (Cotton, maize, rice, sugarcane and wheat). Similarly, collectively (linear and non-linear addition) Kharif rainfall was negatively linked to NFR except for small and non-irrigated farms. This is understandable as the small farmers have less excess to irrigation water and as non-irrigated farms are confronting erratic monsoon trends.

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Results and Discussion Chapter 4

Rainfall during Rabi season would seem to be dangerous for small and non-irrigated farming community as majority of such community grow wheat in Rabi season, the excessive rainfall particularly at the time of harvesting ruin the produce and thus NFR is severely affected. A comparison of irrigated and non-irrigated farms suggests that Rabi rainfall is good for irrigated farms while bad for non- irrigated farms. On the other hand, Kharif rainfall is beneficial for non-irrigated farms while it may be less effective for irrigated farms. Increase in Kharif minimum temperature is good news for both kinds of farms as is Rabi minimum temperature (Table 6).

Table 6. Median Ricardian Regression: Marginal Impact of Climate Change on Net Farm Revenue (US$/hectare)

Climatic Small Medium Large Non- Variables Overall Farm Farm Farm Irrigated irrigated Rabi Max Temp 654.67 -185.02 117.04 923.62 954.50 -2583.18 Kharif Max Temp -775.59 176.93 -447.65 -1291.96 -1218.94 2635.56 Rabi Min Temp -1658.12 -1688.61 -1541.49 -1772.74 -1449.85 -2067.33 Kharif Min Temp 1041.33 933.63 864.75 1229.28 1228.75 687.89 Rabi Rainfall 69.20 -120.44 81.31 98.87 130.48 -434.79 Kharif Rainfall -32.72 19.80 -44.87 -39.57 -45.98 99.49

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Results and Discussion Chapter 4

Impact of Seasonal Data of Climatic Variables on NFR was also explored. Initially, the Maximum temperatures of four seasons (winter, spring, summer and fall) were taken along with rainfall in the respective seasons as independent variables along with socio-economic characteristics and soil/district dummies. Simple Ricardian regression was operated along with Brush pagan and Shapiro Wilk tests in all the categories of farms. The statistics of Pagan test and associated p-values indicate that data suffered from heteroscedasticity. Wilk test was applied on the residual term and it was found that in all the models the distribution was not normal. In order to have robust results we operated the median Ricardian regressions for all the sample farms. This kind of regression not only addresses the issue of hetro skedasticity but the impact of outliers is also diluted. The results of Median Ricardian regression showed that the linear term of winter maximum temperature was negative while quadratic term was positive; thereby the NFR function was U-shaped. On the other hand, for all other three seasons (spring, summer and fall), the function was found to be hill-shaped (this is a kind of inverted U shape which means that with the increase in temperature there is increase in NFR up to some range of temperature after that NFR goes down with the increase in temperature. The linear terms of winter and spring rainfall were positively associated with NFR while summer and fall rainfalls were negatively associated with NFR. This revealed that up to certain extent the winter and spring rainfall would be beneficial for productivity while summer and fall rainfalls would give positive NFR beyond a certain threshold. The shapes of NFR functions were either hill- shaped or U-shaped as appeared in most of the climatic studies (Kaufmann, 1998). All these results were statistically significant. There were varying results found for the same model across small, medium, large, irrigated and non-irrigated farms. For instance, there was positive impact of summer rainfall on small, large and non-irrigated farms while NFR was positively associated fall rainfall in medium and large farms (Table 7). As explained elsewhere, the qualitative information is quite cognizant to these results. Whatsoever is being established through these empirical findings, the expert opinion of development thinkers and policy experts in the broad areas of climate studies is going in the same directions.

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Table 7. Median Ricardian Regression: Seasonal Maximum Temperatures, Rainfalls, Dummies and Socio-economic Variables

Non- Small Medium Large Irrigated Variables Overall Irrigated Farms Farms Farms Farms Farms Winter Maximum Temperature -89721.2 -105834.8 -71881.5 -42907.09 -81126.43 Spring Maximum Temperature 11328.45 23096.04 20139.49 3073.325 20409.25 Summer Maximum Temperature 71956.98 127104.3 91317.43 56968.26 73568.85 Fall Maximum Temperature 44366.1 10727.23 16192 Winter Rainfall 761.7561 1609.766 690.0063 508.3477 612.3362 421.5289 Spring Rainfall 343.6201 182.4042 83.71129 218.3209 249.9133 -487.2217 Summer Rainfall -158.464 -276.7575 -192.497 -198.3932 -144.7373 175.1458 Fall Rainfall -352.894 -484.2403 148.0166 196.8133 -204.2528 -693.8039 Winter Maximum Temperature 2054.217 2420.281 1640.172 996.2434 1864.584 -71.38417 Squared Spring Maximum Temperature -159.13 -329.0943 -287.006 -40.40505 -294.1352 21.44663 Squared Summer Maximum Temperature -960.106 -1692.184 -1188.37 -775.3242 -974.9618 -3.229081 Squared Fall Maximum Temperature -660.2 36.04322 3.591456 -133.586 -229.8244 25.88621 Squared Winter Rainfall Squared -21.9016 -40.06456 -21.9724 -6.696134 -17.92995 -4.663761 Spring Rainfall Squared -4.57278 -3.11082 -1.1383 -2.248729 -3.353509 -0.6964579 Summer Rainfall Squared 0.30169 0.0317566 1.044659 0.465434 0.403809 -3.581988 Fall Rainfall Squared 19.29104 40.7477 1.993531 -0.416328 13.19914 73.95501

56

Dummy of Soil 1 -270.858 -131.506 205.9695 -391.23 -63.47757 Dummy of Soil 2 -122.856 584.9376 -83.232 213.0374 -368.8221 175.4516 Dummy of Soil 3 118.0049 183.4401 70.36405 882.782 75.07474 Dummy of Soil 4 108.6894 -289.809 906.0756 Dummy of Barani Districts -778.428 -1104.501 879.8754 -1992.434 -630.1981 -1001.299 Dummy of Southern Punjab (cotton 7.491614 -481.6902 -469.682 -191.163 -506.6892 8.413163 belt) Years of Schooling of Farmer 19.66031 -3.655704 13.91771 49.99818 25.24122 -4.897432 Size of the Farms in Hecters 13.0861 -13.06489 -127.77 2.149378 15.49786 11.42199 Farmer Experience 1.551755 6.943684 2.382185 8.58515 1.658142 Family Size 16.0737 -71.68693 -33.3098 51.41997 10.4941 -5.399506 Constant -1312275 -1669449 -1321150 -847322.5 -1140331 -12583.81 Characteristics of the Models No. of Observations 345 119 122 104 251 94 No. of Iterations 49 24 27 16 23 10 Pseudo R-sq 0.3442 0.3349 0.437 0.401 0.262 0.497 Sum of Deviations 232920.3 75742.74 67467.2 64176.92 186565.4 35019.39

57

Results and Discussion Chapter 4

It was noted in the model that loamy, sandy and silty soils were positively associated with NFR in the overall model while clay soil was negatively associated. But interestingly, for small, large, irrigated and non-irrigated farms, presence of loamy soil tended to increase the NFR. Sandy soil was not found to be positively influencing medium and irrigated farms. Some of the soil dummies (by taking various types of soil) were not found significantly workable in small, irrigated and non- irrigated farms. The results of District dummies showed that the presence of Barani districts (mostly wheat is grown) decreases the NFR for overall, large, irrigated and non-irrigated farms. Small farmers and medium farmers of these districts are getting benefit under the present climatic situations. Medium and large farms of southern Punjab (cotton belt) suffered as against overall, small, irrigated and non-irrigated farms (Table 7 and Table 8). Climatic variables were calculated on the basis of secondary data of time series taken from Pakistan Metreological Department.

Table 8: Median Ricardian Regression: Marginal Impact of Climate Change on Net Farm Revenue (US$/hectare) Non Climatic Overall Small Medium Large Irrigated Irrigated Variables Farms Farms Farms Farms Farms Farms

Winter Maximum -1608.49 -3243.78 -1220.77 182.17 -381.33 -2983.57 Temperature

Spring 453.22 856.12 427.23 292.87 68.36 1419.12 Maximum Temperature Summer Maximum -1479.24 -1065.13 6.98 -2678.33 -1611.20 -241.61 Temperature Fall 1742.16 3916.70 232.76 2056.24 1239.29 1636.77 Maximum Temperature Winter Rainfall 166.54 -1009.61 137.66 330.09 230.98 221.22 Spring Rainfall 196.81 -379.92 48.13 146.61 154.92 -516.61 Summer Rainfall -121.89 -479.96 -77.44 -143.20 -105.90 -498.59 Fall Rainfall 194.46 3695.29 199.49 185.14 92.52 2567.41

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It was further noted (Table 9) that there was positive impact of education as the years of schooling is increased except in the category of small farms. Similarly, with the increase in size of farms, there was an increase in NFR except in the case of small and medium farms. Farming experience has significantly impacted on NFR in all categories of farmers except in the model of irrigated farms from where the variable has to be dropped for getting significant results. The reasonable values of Pseudo R-Square., in each of the models for all categories of farms clearly reflected the fact that climate variables left significant impact on NFR.Climatic Variables were taken in many form keeping the four seasons in view corresponding of all major crops in the province. Moreovre, Besides, minimum temperature, maximum temperature of each particular season was taken into consideration for having a comprehensive take of impact of climate change on NFR. Similarly, seasonal variation of rainfall and humidity was regressed with NFR for taking real causality between variables across the year.

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Table 9. Median Ricardian Regression: Seasonal Minimum Temperatures, Rainfalls, Dummies and Socio- Economic Variables

Climatic Variable Overall Small Medium Large Irrigated Non Irrigated Farms Farms Farms Farms Farms Farms Winter Minimum Temperature -1446.04 -1200.38 -1149.76 -2015.98 -1414.16 -11577.78 Spring Minimum Temperature -311.37 1585.15 -8.35 1444.15 91.66 -36187.34 Summer Minimum Temperature -173.23 -281.81 -532.31 445.41 -199.50 -9898.87 Fall Minimum Temperature 1925.25 -607.75 1693.45 294.28 1505.75 47633.68 Winter Rainfall -239.32 -245.58 -445.03 -265.0 -252.68 -8944.05 Spring Rainfall -34.10 5.70 1.43 -27.51 -28.84 -290.69 Summer Rainfall 70.86 74.90 134.37 104.11 76.94 2297.91 Fall Rainfall -32.80 -90.43 -119.05 -122.89 -36.39 -1298.63 Winter Humidity -255.65 -97.83 -191.26 -69.44 -193.63 -4771.28 Springr Humidity 352.44 176.52 459.95 217.36 324.43 9948.08 Summer Humidity -175.58 -172.68 -594.30 -228.10 -222.12 -4667.81 Fall Humidity -16.82 9.89 173.44 85.24 13.50 -3151.35 Sandy Soil =1, 0 = Otherwise -670.77 -707.15 -412.84 -851.15 -778.94 -218.30 Clay Soil =1, 0 = Otherwise -367.20 10.63 -578.17 -514.86 -575.53 208.13 Silty Soil =1, 0 = Otherwise -246.75 9.05 -550.08 -15.76 -337.12 (dropped) Other Soil =1, 0 = Otherwise -219.08 -79.27 -290.00 -435.25 -161.77 -276.23 Altitude 0.19 -0.53 0.90 0.34 -0.60 0.26

Farmer Education 33.86 11.99 12.08 53.12 49.15 -3.90 Farm Size 0.78 375.54 -83.03 -5.77 -1.16 12.75 Farmer Experience 2.59 6.43 -5.00 1.64 1.24 2.77 Farmer's Family Size 24.37 -4.05 -37.36 38.70 28.72 13.93 Constant -1484 5349 9545 -26477 -2309 496642 Overall Characteristics of the Model No. of Obs. 345 119 122 104 251 94 F-stat 12.32 3.52 5.62 5.08 5.62 5.87 Prob. F-stat 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 R-sq 0.4447 0.4323 0.5415 0.5654 0.3401 0.6168 Adj. Rsq 0.4086 0.3094 0.4452 0.4541 0.2796 0.5118

Results and Discussions Chapter 4

o The results of marginal impact of climate change reflected that if there is 1 C increase in winter and summer maximum temperature, NFR (per hectare) would go down by $ 1608.49 and $ 1479.24 respectively. Small and non-irrigated farms seem to be severely hit by this change of winter maximum temperature while large farms would be getting benefits due to increases in summer maximum temperature. On the other hand, the same increase in spring and fall maximum temperatures would increase NFR at the rate of $ 453.22 and $ 1742.16 per hectare. Small farms would be getting highest advantage in terms of increase in NFR due to increase in fall maximum temperature (Table 10).

Table 10: Median Ricardian Regression: Marginal Impact of Climate Change on Net Farm Revenue (US$/hectare) Marginal Effects Overall Small Medium Large Irrigated Non Farms Farms Farms Farms Farms Irrigated Farms Winter Minimum Temperature -1403.44 -3286.25 -2210.62 -1998.15 -1592.76 -3777.23

Spring Minimum Temperature 502.96 896.32 -1139.55 666.73 589.12 ------

Summer Minimum Temperature 722.38 704.91 1149.60 179.19 -150.96 -1864.07

Fall Minimum Temperature 63.30 -1853.26 1044.94 763.39 388.25 ------Winter Rainfall 40.94 390.79 403.30 113.70 119.00 -53.32 Spring Rainfall -23.96 -554.57 -288.38 -33.29 -48.52 -132.31 Summer Rainfall 0.03 88.88 -36.70 -49.24 -22.71 -274.88 Fall Rainfall -3.58 -262.11 56.67 160.89 70.88 1417.94

An increase of summer rainfall at the rate of one mm/month would decrease the NFR in all the categories of farms. This decrease is the highest in case of non-irrigated farms and small farms. These results suggest that increase in winter and fall rainfall is

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Results and Discussions Chapter 4 more important for the farmers cultivating under non-irrigated situation probably due to the fact that most of them grow wheat crops. Winter rainfall is good for all farmers except that of small holders. This might be associated to the fact that small farms in irrigated regions were less likely towards adaptation to erratic rainfall pattern. Most of the findings of these marginal effects are statistically significant as per F-test treatment.

4.3 In-depth Interviews of Forestry Professionals

The narratives developed on the basis of these interviews show a broad picture of impact of climate change on agriculture, forestry and forest trees. At various occasions, these narratives have been tallied to the secondary studies for which literary support has been provided. Moreover, the empirical findings of previous part have also been matched to these narratives so as to get a coherent and consistent answer to the complex and challenges problems of climate change.

4.3.1 Status of Forests in Pakistan

Pakistan has an area of around 4.2 million hectares with forests. This is equal to 4.8 % of the entire terrestrial zone (GOP, 2003), which is very little as related to an average of 30 % for the world (FAO, 2001). Present status can be traced with the aid of the resource assessment of 10 years. The last attended forest resource assessment was of 2003-2004. At that time Pakistan Forest Institute was under Federal Government and internationally known firms were involved. Although after gap of 10 years in 2012 the Pakistan forest Institute did a resource assessment but at that time Pakistan forest Institute was devolved under the 18th amendment and its figures are approximately the same as 2003- 2004. It shows that Pakistan has 5 % forest cover of its geographical area. But the difference is that in the report of 2012, the forest cover of the other provinces was shown to be relatively less. The forest cover of KPK was presented around 3 % more than that of other provinces (Qaim, 2017).

According to FAO (2013), forest area of Pakistan is 1558 (1000 Ha) out of 77088 (1000 Ha) total land area of Pakistan. But due to increasing rate of deforestation of

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71 K ha y1, Pakistan lost the area of about 8,400 km2 (33.2 %) and about 420 km2 which is about 1.66 % per year between 1990 and 2010, (FAO 2010). At the national level, the most recent study “Land Cover Atlas-2011 of Pakistan” conducted by the Pakistan Forest Institute (PFI) reported a total forest cover of Pakistan, excluding alpine pastures, which permits the use without any restrictions, the distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided that the original work is properly credited. Almost hundred % of the requirement of is being made from the trees growing within the country. Out of this about 40 % coming from the state forest and 60 % is being generated from the farm land. As far as timber is concerned, presently we are meeting all the requirements except the modern requirements (as per international standards identified under ISO) and the most sophisticated Timber requirements which are being imported from the other countries like Malaysia and South Africa. Regarding the rangeland, we have a vast area available and it is meeting the requirements of our livestock. Similarly, the Scrub forest which is extending from Rawalpindi district to the lower formations of the near Rawalpindi district like Tehsil Gujjar Khan, , Kahuta, Salem District, Chakwal than the parts of Gujarat parts of district Sargodha and district Kushab and district Mianwali up to DG Khan. Here the plantations are very slow growing but still mostly these are used for the firewood and meeting the requirement of the local people (Khan, 2017). Due to the over exploitation, the rate of deforestation in the naturally present forests is up to 0.75 % per annum (FAO, 2007).

The average per annum rate of deforestation as visualized in the natural forests in about 27000 hectares according to an assessment of forests based on the Landsat. The forests of Himalayas are underjoin degradation because of the hasty economic developments and socio-economic transformations (Blaikie and Sadeque, 2000). Deforestation is deliberated as 2nd maximum greenhouse gases emissions which was quantified to discharge a valued 2 Giga tons of Carbon (GtC) annually over the last few years (Eggleston et al., 2006). A fast increase in Pakistan’s energy intake is associated to growing population and thus the economic growth is being suffered. The country lacks the forest capital.

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The most important cause is that arid or semi-arid regions are about 70 to 80 % and the precipitation rates are very low in order to support tree growth (Hamayaun, 2005). As an alternative source of fuel, natural gas should be used. lacks the information about the conserving of biodiversity. Poor selection of is shown by them as a result of which the valuable local plantation is used for fuel purpose of wood species. The pitfalls are linked to original gears and methods, low timber outturn, absence of planning and lack of harvesting strategies for economical outturn. Similarly, wasteful approaches of timber preservation, over harvesting, low literacy rate, management of timber harvest by outsiders, non-availability of bank-loans, great timber consumption in local houses and common forest fires are some of the prominent causes threatening biodiversity across region and time

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Figure 5: Forest Map of Pakistan

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Climate is usually defined as the "average weather" conditions in a particular place (this shows mean temperature or rainfall for a particular season or the whole year). It includes patterns of temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind and seasons. It plays a fundamental role in shaping natural ecosystems, and the human economies and cultures that depend on them. Our climate is rapidly changing with disturbing impacts. The change is progressing faster than what one sees in the last 2,000 years. During this period, humans have been altering the composition of the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels, including coal, oil and gas. When these are burned, CO2 is produced and builds up in the atmosphere. Resultantly, we confront the dilemma of bad effect of GHGs. These gases trap energy from the sun, and raise the temperature of the earth. Climate is changing rapidly only due to the anthropogenic factors. Overpopulation is the biggest cause associated with these factors. Population is increasing day by day and which is causing pollution in its various forms. More population implicitly means more pollution. The air pollution is causing the depletion of the ozone layer which in return is causing the rise in temperature. Air pollution is being caused due to lead, carbon and GHGs. The refrigerator gases, aerosols and sprays are damaging the environment chronically. Carbon sequesters are quite common. The trees are being cut fast in order to earn money or for habitat. But this enhanced deforestation is destroying the climate because more carbon is being released in the atmosphere than sequestering of carbon. In nutshell, one can conclude from these narratives that rising population, pollution, GHG emissions and deforestation are the key drivers of climate change each of which deserve separate attention of policy makers for comprehensive strategy for mitigation and adaptation to climate change so that its unfriendly impact to the humans could be controlled. Quantitative analysis as shown in Ricardian Regressions and laboratory experiments as performed in Scanning Electron Microscopy, also demonstrate a similar kind of research and justify the narratives gauged from in-depth interviews (See Figure 6).

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Figure 6: Schematic Diagram showing Reasons for Climate Change

4.3.2 Erratic Patterns of Temperature and Precipitation.

Gadiwala and Burke (2013) studied the climate change and precipitation in Pakistan. Around 110 years of mean temperature and precipitation data (1901-2010) of

Pakistan reveal an increasing trend of about 0.66oC in temperature and an increasing trend of about 106 mm in precipitation. Following are graphs which prove the above statements. Region wise trend of temperature in the last century has been shown in figures below. Farooqi et al. (2005) depicts that in Pakistan, annual mean surface temperature has a consistent rising trend since the start of 20th century. Rise in mean temperature of 0.6-1.0°C in arid coastal areas, arid mountains and hyper arid plains is observed. We can also witness 10 to 15 % decrease in summer and winter precipitation in seaside belt and hyper arid plains. Similarly, there is an observation of 18-32 % increase in rainfall in monsoon zone especially the sub humid and humid areas. There is 5%

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Results and Discussions Chapter 4 decrease in relative humidity in Baluchistan, 0.5 to 0.7 % increase in solar radiation over southern half of the country. Global surface temperatures have increased about 0.74°C th since the late 19 century. The linear trend for the past 50 years of 0.13°C per decade is nearly twice than that for the past 100 years. The warming has not been globally uniform. The recent warmth has been greatest over North America and Eurasia between 40 and 70°N. There has been a general, tendency toward reduced diurnal temperature range (DTR) which shows the difference between daily high or maximum and daily low or minimum temperatures over about 70 % of the global land mass since the middle of the 20th century. A variety of factors likely contribute to this change in DTR, particularly on a regional and local basis. This also includes changes in cloud cover, atmospheric water vapor, land use and urban effects. All of these narratives were actually extracted from in-depth interviews of government personnel. These might not be fully scientifically valid but provide a guideline for understanding the impact of climate on and agriculture and forestry.

Climate change may also involve uncertain changes in seasonal patterns of temperature, storms, fire, precipitation, air humidity, snow cover and frequency and severity of extreme events (Michener et al., 1997). As an example, storms are predicted to be more common in north-west Europe (Dorland et al., 1999) breaking or uprooting increasing numbers of trees especially in Pakistan, its arid and semi-arid climate. In this way, the rainfall plays important role for forests. This erratic pattern of rain falls was started due to many reasons. Major contribution of GHGs is coming from two sources. The one is from Himalayan activities and other is associated to deforestation. Forest cover is getting less, and the carbon sink which forests do is finished due to which more and more gases are going in the atmosphere and ultimately disturbing climate (Ejaz, 2017).

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Figure 7: Temperature fluctuations between the year 1900-2010

Figure 8: Mean annual precipitation (mm) of Pakistan and trend during the periods 1901-2010. Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 70

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Now there are two things to note. It is due to forests the impact may be less, and secondly, due to climate change, there are the impacts on forests. One can see in Baluchistan, it is very much damaging. Wherever forest is in abundance, the recharge is sufficient. In 2010 flood, there was a considerable loss in north side. Reason was deforestation and damage occurred in every way. But in south side, it was beneficial because topsoil or good soil is settled in southern part. The water stayed there for a long time so there was good recovery. Water bodies were changed, there quality was changed and they were washed. Manchar is a classic example. The subsequent crop over the field there was a bumper crop. People agree that the harvesting became difficult for them. At one place it had a damaging role while at the other place it was beneficial. Water scarcity may occur due to nil recharge (Ejaz, 2017). When the rain is highly required, most of the times it does not rain. In the past years, one might have observed that when it is the time to harvest the wheat crop, it starts raining. Sometimes the cloud burst and sometimes there is a long dry spell. We should bring the change in the growing and harvesting season accordingly. Due to the temperature changes the yield is also suffered. When the temperature rises the crops get more growth season. For the long dry spell, there should be ample provision of water (Imtiaz, 2017). These imperatives are highly associated to some empirical studies as discussed in review of literature. Moreover, the results are consistent to Ricardian Regressions. Actually, we are living in a country where the rainfall is less than required for the forest trees. During the month of June-, July and August, there should be maximum rainfall to meet the demand of the trees. Water is lost from the surface through seepage and via evapotranspiration. So in these hot months the evapo-transpiration increase to a higher level so maximum range might be available in the month of June, July and August. The source of irrigation for the forest is mainly the canal water. Canal closure is mainly experienced in the months of December and January. Previously the range used to be seen during the month of December and January but recently the rainfall was observed during the month of February so the plants were facing shortage of irrigation water during these 2 months. Moreover some water is available to the forest and the irrigated plantation for 6 months from the month of April up to 15th of October. The rainfall which used to happen in the month of June and July is now happening in September. The requirement of the rain has not been fulfilled when they are actually needed. This is how one witnesses the adverse effect. Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 71

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The trees do not grow in the air. They grow on the land, and for that we have to have water reservoir. To develop their nurseries, we have to plant them and we have to mark the areas and transportation too. So, we need to have good resources in order to do this. We have to think that either we can get benefit. If we can do this, then there is need to see whether we have the resources or not. If the climatic changes are happening in the Northern regions of the Pakistan where most of the natural resources of plants are present and where the rainfall is tending to a decreasing trend, it will have a negative impact. Sometimes, in some places this also happened that in short period of time, quite a heavy rain fall. So, the benefit is ultimately low. The top layer of the soil is eroded. Due to that fertile soil loss reservoir fills up and their capacity becomes less. We cannot get results from a one-year study. We have to observe this phenomenon for at least 10-20 years. After that we can analyze and get the result that the change in the rainfall is actually affecting the forests. These narratives are cognizant to other studies. Similarly, the quantitative analysis and time series pattern of climatic variables are befitting examples consistent to these narratives. It was further narrated that this has badly affected the rain- fed areas because in these areas the entire vegetation is of baby crops, particularly the trees depend upon it. It is important to note that the rainfall dropped from 44 to 18 in inches that has affected the barani areas. Due of that, the growth has been affected badly. The trees which were getting growth in about 30 years is not getting the growth in 30 years but now requires 5- 10 years more. Similarly, the natural regeneration which was totally dependent on the ground soil water and the soil humidity, these have gone down. To mitigate the less rain the artificial spray of the rain is required but unfortunately we do not have the resources. Show the way to mitigate is to know how to much and how to cover the soil moisture. For retaining the soil moisture, we have to cover with a sort of mulching material. Secondly particularly in the areas like Rawalpindi, Jhelum, Chakwal, the slow rain is very beneficial, but that torrent rain runoff and all the water run down. So we need water harvesting practices like small water ponds could be very beneficial. Aligning with the quantitative analysis, one can conclude the farms lying in non-irrigated region can take benefit of such water harvesting strategies.

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There have been times in the past when vegetation responded to warming, and at times when temperatures were greater than what we observe today. So, trees are proficient of fine-tuning to a warmer climate. Tropical forests are presently facing some of the quickest rates of warming in current geological times. And not only are temperatures increasing around the world but there are signals that temperature irregularities are becoming more common. Warming may decrease leaf-level photosynthesis upsurge autotrophic respiration rates and increase evaporative demand resulting in reduced tree growth. These narratives are cognizant in the very implicit sense to some of the findings of Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). Before talking about forest, we can consider the human being. If the temperature is lowered or it becomes too high, then it will affect the human. So the trees are also living beings they are all so sensitive. They also have a limit to tolerate climate related things. If there is too much frost so it destroys the whole crop. These impacts are different in different areas for different species. The impacts vary on different trees. Some trees are very hard; they can bear shocks and some trees are very sensitive, they cannot bear it. Even after attaining maturity level and after being strong they cannot hear that impact and dries out. So this extreme variation in the temperature will definitely affect the plants (Qaim, 2017). Indeed, it has an impact on every living being. They all have a temperature requirement. If there is a difference in that range, like for example Texas willichiana is affected due to temperature. It may increase and affect the growth, regeneration and germination. Intensive heat cannot be tolerated by moist temperate area forests. Every tree needs an optimum temperature. Change effects growth or life cycle. Pests and diseases are affected too. Borer of Chalgoza attacked less before but now it attacks more due to rise in temperature. This is so because it is suitable for their life cycle. They get weak and dry. Moist and dry temperature creates more affect. Frequent forest fires occur in various regions. Ultimately this all leads to climate change mainly in terms of precipitation and temperature. When these parameters are affected these will affect forests, environment and grasses etc (Ibrahim, 2017). All the species are adapted from thousands of years like you must have seen in Islamabad tropical plant like Neem it never grows. It has been tried but after 5 to 7 years when the temperature drops to -1, it washes away. There is a window between the minimum and the maximum temperature to which the plants

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respond. So, we have to see that with the changing environment, the changing temperature in different agro economic zones. If at someplace the minimum temperature was low but now due to the climate change, the minimum temperature is getting higher in that area. This is how one can observe the tree shifting. We have seen in the past that the tree was not present in the snowy areas. Due to the change in the minimum temperature, the Populus tree has been shifted towards other areas. No we have to do the practice that we have to introduce the new and fast growing plants which will in return improve the forest cover as well as provide the livelihood sources for the people livelihood in the forest (Imtiaz, 2017). If you have studied the forest types, it is specified in it the range of temperature most suitable for associated forest type. Basically it means that the forest may take the appropriate growth time. If it needs three months to grow, it is getting it at 25 degrees centigrade. Some of them need a longer monsoon, and it is highly important what will be the temperature in that monsoon. If we are to talk in the context of Pakistan, we will have to show the threshold limits of every forest type in each area. It is variable for every species; it needs a dry season also too shed the leaves. For example, our locality and temperature is the most suitable for olive but the fruit of the Olive is not very pulpy as compared to the Italian or Mediterranean species. It is so because there is required limit of 25 degree centigrade of the optimum temperature which is to last about two or three months as per appropriate duration for fruiting. That is why our fruit stay a bit hard. For example, if the tree of Sheesham needs 40 inches of rainfall per year and what temperature it can bear, the threshold limits of the same have been provided. It survives at zero degrees centigrade as well as at 50 degrees centigrade. If we study the Silvicultural manual of every species, we can get the whole idea (Umer, 2017). The temperature has a great impact on any kind of plant whether it is in forest or somewhere else. This effect differs from species to species. The optimum temperature range is the most suitable for every plant. Plantation should not be done in the very harsh season. Plantation is performed and the plant are established. An increase in temperature increases the rate of growth and a decrease in temperature retards the growth. For example, in the coniferous forest the low temperature is most favourable for the pine species. But the plant of the same tree in the plain areas may confront an adversely affected growth under high temperature scenario (Jaffari, 2017).

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4.3.3 Deforestation Deforestation is the loss of tree cover. This is typically as a consequence of forests being cleared for further land uses like farming or ranching. Some limit the definition of deforestation to the everlasting transformation of forests to another habitat. Others add to this meaning by counting the conversion of natural forests to artificial forests such as plantations. Deforestation events disturb carbon fluxes in the soil, vegetation, and atmosphere. The effects of these actions can vary and reliant on the type of activity. For example, logging can lead to carbon storage if trees are changed to wood products (e.g., ) and deforested areas are reestablished. Given the importance of deforestation, it may be astonishing that in many states there is substantial doubt about the present reasons. In history, deforestation was driven by the development of agriculture into forested land, the use of timber for energy production and, to some extent, logging to deliver timber harvests degradation of native old forests. Deforestation may lead to bad outcomes for forest functions, such as halting the biodiversity conservation and providing of products to the societies of the rural areas. Afforestation can help to increase the defense of resident biodiversity, at the same time as negative outcomes have been reported.

In 2009, the forest cover was 10.3 % of the land area of Chitral (60,000 ha). The deforestation %age augmented from 0.14 % per annum in 1992–2000 to 0.54 % per annum in 2000–2009, with 3,759 ha forest lost over the 17 years. Accessibility (elevation, slope), population density, distance to settlements, and distance to administrative boundary were strongly associated with neighborhood deforestation. A model projection showed a further loss of 23 % of existing forest in Chitral tehsil by 2030, and degradation of 8 %, if deforestation continues at the present rate. Arandu Union Council, with 2212 households, will lose 85 % of its forest. In Pakistan, the 5th largest forest is present in the Indus delta region that gives a range of important ecosystem services including the marine fish habitat, their production, coastal stabilization etc. Given their ecological importance in coastal environments, mangrove areas receive special attention in assessing the conservation efforts and sustainable development of the coastal areas. Among the mangrove or coastal forests, the degradation is mostly common all over the globe.

An increase in the consumption of the forest resources has been recorded due to the

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Results and Discussions Chapter 4 coastal population increase and fast economic expansion. Mangrove vegetation are under stress as far as the provision of wood and other forest products are concerned. Pakistan's mangroves face red warnings which endanger their sustainability and their very existence. The most serious problem of the mangroves of Pakistan is the declined flow in the . Most of the water is used for agricultural purposes. In risking the mangrove’s biodiversity, the more use of fuel wood and salinity stress are the other important factors. Myers (1992) said that half of the all the tropical forest are present that ever existed on earth. If we have to save the forests, we must know the causes of the forest’s loss. Similarly, Pearce and Moran, (2013) found two chief reasons impacting deforestation. Firs, the struggle amongst people and other species for obtaining the available places on land and in shoreline areas. This part is noticeably presented by the alteration of forest land to supplementary usages such as agriculture, infrastructure. Second, to depict the true significance of the environment, the economic systems are a failure. Numerous purposes of forests of the tropics are not promoted and are ignored while decision making. In addition to this, verdicts to change tropical forests are themselves stimulated by revenue and other inducements.

Direct causes There are variety of direct reasons which comprise extension of the farming land, forest and different artificial plantations, fuel wood and logging, over-grazing, forest fires, mining, industrialization / and infra-structure and air pollution

Indirect causes Indirect causes cannot be ignored for having a big picture and thus to suggest some policy measures. These include colonialism, over exploitation done by the industrialized countries, the burden of debt, over-population and poverty, rights of lands, land tenures and improper land distribution, under estimating the value of forests and corruption and political reasons.

4.3.4 Inherent problems associated to Forest Sector

The forest status is declared as having tendency towards degradation. There are a couple of reasons for such happenings. Climatic conditions are not favorable for the plant growth in arid to semi-arid areas. Due to overpopulation, the process of natural regeneration is badly affected. People have rights but the social and political interference is quite extensive. Man-made plantations of trees are in the south and irrigated plantations of Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 76

Results and Discussions Chapter 4 reverine forests are common in Punjab. The encroachment in these forests is high. People allotted themselves the land and said that they would practice there but in actual, they did not follow their commitments. The illegal grazing and is a problematic for the forests (Maqbool, 2017). This is applying pressure on the forests. The unmanageable livestock grazing have harmful influences on forest regeneration configurations in conifer forests because of browsing, trampling, soil compaction, augmented soil erosion, and reduced water infiltration. Over grazing can be triggered both by too many animals or un-restraining their grazing activity. With smaller accessible grazing zone, grazers can shift to the wooded vegetation along with grasses and shrubs (Gordon, 1992).

The most problematic factor in all the irrigated lands of Pakistan is water. We have land and water, but the water is harvested illegally. Weed infestation is quite high. Link roads were made near the forest. Initially, when they needed the timber, they took it on horse or a mule but now due to this road wherever the car goes or loading cargoes are available, the timber is being cut from there. Encroachment is large due to the world population; slope is thus stabilized due to the road construction. Even after the prohibition of green , the remained active. They also used acid to dry out the tree and then they can harvest the tree to use its timber. As one can judge that the regeneration of pine tree is very slow. When one does not provide specific care and time, it would not grow. Finance and resources are required for the artificial regeneration along with the favorable climatic conditions. In this field, KPK is doing a good job because it is getting the resources and their environment is also conducive but on the other side our forests are gradually decreasing. The forests along the canal and along the roads are of poor condition these days. Sometimes, the workers on the canal argue that they will manage the trees and sometimes the forest department says that we will manage the trees. Different companies are made within them like Southern company. Political interference is quite prevalent. Resource allocation is also a problem. There is substantial increase in theft. At first, a person cuts a tree with an axe, loads it on a mule and uses it. Now Tractors and Chainsaw are being used and 100 years old trees are cut and loaded (Maqbool, 2017). Transportation of timber materials from in-wood to the processing facilities is a major component of forest operations and from citizen’s perspective. The most visible and appealing section of the entire forest management scheme from forest Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 77

Results and Discussions Chapter 4 stand to the utilization of the trees (Greene et al., 2007). The most limiting factor for the plant growth is water. If water is available, then anything can be grown even in Cholistan. We can do some efforts like dry forest station. This trial has worked a lot in China. Once upon a time, Pakistan had also a leading role in it in 1950 on sand dunes stabilization. Then Turkey took over it. In 1950, there were windmills for the animal water providing government scrapped it and sold it rather than maintaining it. This does not matter that people have technical knowhow or not.

A lot of work was conducted on sand dune stabilization. Cool Industries Industries Honey formation started at that time but there was no will and no resources to run it. Non-technical personalities sometimes interfere. At first, the head of the forest department was a himself but now they are bureaucrats who lead to the cause of more problems rather than solution. Climatic conditions are not favourable. Similarly, resource allocation is less social. Political interference is very large. Political pressure is quite high. People who work hard, are discouraged in various ways and then transferred from one place to another place. As the population is increased the livestock demand is also increased. Resultantly, the energy demand is enhanced. We had fixed resources but the pressure on it has increased day by day so is the reason we are witnessing fast process of degradation (Maqbool, 2017). Our forests are facing huge problems naturally as well as artificially. Overpopulation is the biggest problem that is faced by the forest sector. When there is overpopulation people will need more space to live and in return they will cut the forests and they will depend on the forest resources. The social and political interference is too much. The forests are paying for this interference. Illegal encroachment is also causing problems. Due to the climatic change some weeds and insects are destroying the forests rapidly. Due to severe or harsh climate some weeds are

moving towards the areas where stress is more prone towards danger. To manage these issues, the resources are the most important things. But, unfortunately due to political influences, the resources are not well managed and forests are not as properly conserved as they should be. Due to variability in climate the lack of precipitation is also damaging the life in forests (Schematic Diagram-Fig 9). This figure is depicting the forest sector problems in the very broad sense as defined from the excerpts of interviewers. Harsh

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Results and Discussions Chapter 4 climatic conditions, weed infestation, lack of water and resources along with pressure of overpopulation demonstrate as the key problems. Moreover, timber mafia, encroachment, social and political interferences are adding severity in these problems. It is concluded from the narratives of policy experts that in the presence of chunk of these factors, the impact of climate change on forest is increased in extent. And the policy solution to address the menace of climate change and its impact becomes more difficult.

Figure 9: Schematic diagrams showing Problems of Forest Sectors

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4.3.5 Degradation by Anthropogenic Activities Forests face human influences like greater ground level ozone and deposition (Ollinger et al., 2008). The most foreseeable constituent of climate change in the future is that related to human actions (IPCC 2007). Due to the burning of fossil fuels, humans are making big alterations in the composition of the atmosphere by accumulating CO2 and visible particles, called aerosols. Other actions add CH4 and N2O, which, along with CO2, are the so called greenhouse gases that catch outbound infrared radiation and warm the planet (IPCC 2007). The effect is about 1 % of the natural flow of energy through the climate system (Karl and Trenberth, 2003). Due to unfortunate socio-economic status, climatic harshness and nonexistence of alternative energy capitals, people are enforced to depend on local forests resources (Schild, 2011). Kashmir has lost more than 25 % of its vegetation cover since 1990 to 2005 (Butt, 2006). Some research has tried to assess and enumerate discharges from human-driven forest degradation, counting an evaluation of the significance of drivers of forest degradation made by Hosonuma et al., (2012). This study was grounded on data only for the area of forest across 46 tropical and sub-tropical countries. Of the total area of distressed forests in these countries, they found that 51 % of the distressed area was triggered by timber harvesting, 31 % by harvest, 9 % by fires, and 7 % by grazing. While timber harvest was the utmost important action in South and Central America and Asia, wood fuel was the major action by proportion (48 %) in Africa. These estimations only comprise a subset of tropical and subtropical countries. These were not produced through a self-governing and constant assessment. These did not present measureable information on the scale of the greenhouse gas emissions and how they relate to those from deforestation.

The biggest anthropogenic factor is the unplanned development, which means every kind of development like construction of roads and housing colonies. The CPEC has also minimum environmental considerations. For example, in Islamabad 30 years ago, the watershed of Rawal Dam and Simli Dam has approximately been converted into housing colonies. We can clearly see the construction as we approach from Margalla to Murree. It is due to this fact the forest cover and the water shed are devastated. Ultimately when it rains, there is no re-charge. The solid waste becomes part of the dams. Another major factor is fuel wood, energy requirement on household level. From 60 to 65 % people are

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Results and Discussions Chapter 4 using fuel wood for regular use. Some wood is obtained from plantations and other from natural forest cover (Ejaz, 2017). Major direct factors are actually the fuel wood demand, the timber demand and then the fodder demand for land, agriculture and infrastructure. A single anthropogenic activity is not of much effect everywhere.

For example, the Karakoram highway was built in the 70s and that route started afterwards. So we observed that the tree cutting from that area increased. If we still pass from that area, we can see the trees which were cut at some occasion are present over there. Opening of the area has increased. But where the gas became available, the cutting of the tree was comparatively lower. At those places one can observe 90 % of the forest cover. The quantity of the hotel increased there which decrease the stability of soil and in return the erosion was increased. So we cannot specify a single anthropogenic activity for an area. This varies from region to region. We have to observe it and quantify it for having a comprehensive answer (Umer, 2107). In Waziristan, the insurgency increased and the development in Afghanistan increased and the plants like eucalyptus and the other fast growing trees were grown on the private land, due to its high market value so with the anthropogenic factor the economics also counts a lot. As for instance, it was famous that the riverside forest in Sindh consist a lot of thieves, so in order to find them we had to clear a lot of land. So we cannot limit a single anthropogenic factor for all the areas; place to place variation is a common phenomenon (Umer, 2017). He emphasized that this imperative is fairly important for policy solutions which are to be followed keeping the indigenous situations in view.

4.3.6 General Impact of Climate Change on Forest sector Any effect of climate change on forest regimes can have extensive environmental concerns. Earlier evaluations all raise the specter of important effects on forest biodiversity (Coley, 1998). Realizing and forecasting the penalties of these climate variations on ecosystems is evolving as one of the striking consideration for worldwide variation and projecting the impacts on forests is of specific importance (Bonan, 2008). The results of climate variation on forests comprise both affirmative (e.g. rises in forest strength and development from CO2 fertilization, augmented water use efficiency, and lengthier growing seasons) and destructive effects (e.g. reduced growth and increases in

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Results and Discussions Chapter 4 stress and mortality due to the combined impacts of climate change and climate driven changes in the dynamics of forest insects and pathogens (Lloyd and Bunn, 2007; Scholze et al., 2006). With respect to the vulnerability index, Pakistan is placed at 12th internationally. Financial damages of about 4.5 billion $ are expected. Grassland efficiency and subsequently crop and livestock yields are likely to suffer harshly from climatic change manifested in considerably greater temperatures and reduced surface water obtainability and altering rainfall configurations. At first, the monsoon season was in July and August. Once there was 9 inches of rain even in Cholistan in 70's. It is the specialty of this place that the rainfall is erratic; vegetation cover is less so torrents occur. We should conserve the waters which ran off and are lost. This is stored in the table is reserved. Same water will be utilized for the use. In the past, desert faced a serious drought the grasses were dry, some shrubs survived which were eaten by the animals and some of them were burnt by the people. %age of developing of a plant in desert area is very low because of the unfavorable climatic conditions. The concept in the range management is this that whatever is available through the natural resources we have to use it. Mixture of vegetation is grown like that of herbs and shrubs trees. China, Russia and Israel have worked a lot on climate change, and we can learn from them. It is argued whatever quantity of water is available conserve it. Even 25 acres of water is harvested and then converted into one acre. Soil amendments can be made. Hydrophilic compounds are introduced into the soil which increases the soil binding capacity. Percolation and evaporation get lesser and lesser. Exotic species can be introduced and evaluated. India has worked a lot on dry land agriculture and even on . They are growing Ber, Chiku and grapes. Even vegetation composition is changed, when the human preference on a specific kind of vegetation is relatively higher. If you go to the Margalla, we would not find Kahu, and if you will find it, it will be degraded because its green meadows been grazed intensely. Preferred species are always in a greater pressure. Undesirable plants or Invaders are also in problems. For example, in Quaid e Azam University one may see Adhatoda vasica. It is a medicinal plant used to provide medication for a cough. It is an undesirable plant but an indicator of species which tell us that the grazing is being done here. Animals do not eat it. When they eat the other plants and make them weak, this specific plant overcomes them. Due to the biotic pressure, even the species composition can be changed (Maqbool, 2017). Firstly, the presence of forests absorbs the

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Results and Discussions Chapter 4 abnormalities of climate. When forests are there, the climate could be stable. When forests are cut the impact of calamities or natural disasters is increased. Like floods in 2010 in Pakistan, the areas more deforested were harmed quite seriously. Like mangroves in south are first line of defense against cyclones and winds. When it is cut, the cyclone’s intensity would not be tolerated. There are many examples where the forests were present; the damages were lesser in extent and vice versa. The First Tsunami which damaged a lot in which Indonesia, Thailand, and Sri Lanka were included. In these areas where mangroves were cut, they were damaged a lot. One can see clear differences where the areas were protected by mangroves forest. So climate change scenarios increase with the deforestation. If it is flooding and trees are there, then flow intensity will be slow. If it is barren land, the water will gush through and make more damage (Ejaz, 2017). There are 2 types of impacts. One is climate impact on forest and other is forest impact on climate. There is global warming and there is rising temperature; so many species are affected. For example, we experience that Sheesham is being threatened now by climate change. It is going to be extinct in few decades. Taxus willichiana, Himalyan hue are now endangered species, threatened for extinction and that is actually due to global warming, precipitation, moisture and some anthropogenic factors. Other point is that actually the more you cut forests the more you release carbon and GHGs to atmosphere so temperature rises. So, it contributes as well as effects (Ibrahim, 2017). The monsoon season is from thousands of years the spring season starts from 15th February. It has a set pattern which is prevailing from 1000 years. If there is a change in it, one is related to the temporary change. At one year, the rainfall is less. It may rain more or it rains early or late. But if this pattern stays for 40 to 50 years then we can say the climate is changing. This shows the outcome of change in climate on the forest. Due to change in the climate sometimes the drought occurs, the weather shifts so the patterns of the climate change are getting towards the permanent stage. Around 10-20 years back some people used to say that climate change is a fact and some used to say that climate change is the fiction but now this concept has been established that the climate change is a fact and due to the climate change the forests as well as agricultural crops are being affected. Due to heavy rainfall, land sliding occurs, and erosion is caused due to which the trees start falling. It is also noted that the climate change in the long-term is happening due to the anthropogenic activities. The glaciers are melting, and the sea level is increasing. This earth was given

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Results and Discussions Chapter 4 to us by our ancestors. They gave this to us in a good shape but now we have to give it to our next generation. There is a difference between need and greed (Imtiaz, 2017). The annual rainfall of Pakistan was 44 inches per year during 2000 and the most highly rain- fed areas were district Narowal, Sialkot and Shakargarh. Now that annual 44 inches of rain has dropped down about 18 inches per year. So now the gap of 26 inches is causing all sort of bad impacts on the plantation. It is stated that more and more rains will make availability of water sufficient on the ground to percolate down and to maintain the water table underneath the soil. The upper atmosphere is not giving that much water to meet the requirements. Secondly, with the rise of temperature, the growth starts very early particularly the germination. Vegetative growth used to start by late March or early April 10-12 years back. But it is not starting right now halfway down January and February. So with that early germination all sorts of requirement including water requirement and nutrient requirement increase (Khan, 2017). That major factor is of water. For example in Kotri down streams at river Sindh, the water inundation was more, the riverside forest was high. Now they are comparatively low because in irrigated plantation of Punjab the supply of water became less. It is due to the fact that the places which were on the end are difficult to irrigate. If the rainfall becomes less in Baluchistan, the grass and the vegetation cover get affected. If you proceed towards the north due to the melting of glaciers, the water at once moves downward. The movement of the forest species is another problem. We use a word called eco-zones which is the place between the two zones. Add many places are eco zone is shifted. Keekar was specified for the area of Sindh and for the north Punjab. Now it is moving upwards so there are many species like this which are gradually moving out of our system and many others are shifting inside our system. Some of them are moving downward and some of them are moving upward. This need to be studied more rigorously (Umer, 2017). The climate change is causing the global warming. The earth’s temperature is rising continuously. The patterns of rainfall have been changed. When the plants need sufficient water, the rain is too less to support their need and hence plants suffer a lot. Short term droughts are becoming too common. And in the recent years, there is very less rain in winters. Similarly, the Smog is causing too many problems in the urban areas. The forest compositions are changing as they are coping with the climatic variability and hence trying to adjust in the harsh conditions. Too many infectious diseases are sprouting due to these anomalies as they are affecting

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humans also. Due to the rise in temperatures the ice and glaciers are melting rapidly hence rising the sea levels and affecting the coastal areas. In order to recognize the influence of climate variation, a schematic diagram has been designed as shown below. This schematic diagram concludes the overall narratives of impact of climate change on forest trees. On the basis of the narratives of experts, we can conclude that global warming, droughts and erratic pattern of rainfall have become a reality which is showing the scenario of loss of habitat and species as well as shift in ecological zones. A change in forest composition has also been observed. There is prevalence of infectious diseases. Many also gave arguments in the favor of sea level rise. Higher the list of these impact of climate changes, it is going to be difficult to find policy solution.

Figure 10: Schematic diagram showing Impacts of Climate Change

4.3.7 Damage by Green House Gases Chlorofluorocarbon directly hits the ozone layer. The more concentration of carbon dioxide in the air is dangerous. CO2 is mostly released from the chimneys of the

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Results and Discussions Chapter 4 industry and human activities. Methane gas is also a Greenhouse gas which comes from fossil fuel and from the stomach of animals. We have to cut down the release of these harmful gases in the atmosphere. A protocol held in Paris where policy measures were given to reduce some gases. %age of greenhouse gases which is released into the atmosphere should be less. The packaging material for the eatables and the teacups are also very hazardous for our environment. To reduce the %age of the greenhouse gases the more and more tree plantation should be done. There are some specific plants which can do the maximum absorption of the greenhouse gases. We should have complete information of that, and we should plant the same (Imtiaz, 2017). An increase discharge of greenhouse gases are now broadly recognized by the scientific society as chief source of current intensifications in worldwide average temperature (about 0.58oC since 1970). The variations in the hydrological cycle of our world (IPCC, 2007a) are associated to it counting a broadening of the Earth’s tropical belt. A variety of trustworthy scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions can rise radioactive forcing to root a 3–6°C surge in average land surface temperature at high and temperate latitudes this century (Houghton et al., 1996). In the forest, the content of the carbon is the highest. If a tree is being cut then you can have an idea that the emission of the carbon increases. And then contribute in the overall global warming. So basically, the main issue in the forest is of carbon. That's why the international program has been initiated to stop the deforestation and to initiate the afforestation and reforestation. So the carbon dioxide present in the atmosphere can be trapped in the trees which will be only possible due to more and more plantation. Already planted trees should be conserved. According to the red program, the people who will conserve the trees and wrap the carbon will be compensated. For now it is the preparatory phase after that we are to see what the community decide. These are rational options showing the future scenario. What will happen in the future is a little too early to predict (Qaim, 2017). Forests are the biggest carbon sink in the world. And unfortunately, we are cutting the forest and trees. Without realizing that we are cutting the sink factories, one can say either way it is a dual factory which is sinking the carbon and releasing oxygen. So these are the oxygen factories which are sinking carbon and similarly so many other pollutants are being stalked by them, like air pollution and sound pollution. But unfortunately, with the cutting of trees the carbon sink is getting smaller and smaller. When the sink is getting shrinked, the effect of the greenhouse gases will go higher and

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higher (Khan, 2017). Some people say that role of forest in this situation is of mitigation. Spoiling may not be the perfect word for this narrative. One can say that how the forest is mitigating these harmful gases. Their function is to absorb them. Effect will be in such case that if there is a poisonous gas which makes it leaves fall or dieback the Sword of nuclear radiation. So it will affect everyone whether it is human or trees. So you see that the carbon or other gases like nitrous oxide, the trees facilitate us to absorb them (Umer, 2017).

4.3.8 Glimpses of Pakistan’s Forest Policy In the developing countries, the national forest monitoring capacity has been improved over the last 10 years due to the increased investment. A complete monitoring approach that mixes the statistics of very high resolution with measurements of the field and observations could give a good basis for understanding the forest-related greenhouse gas dynamics. It is for supporting maintainable forest management at a range of scales. All forest policies of 1894, 1955 and 1962 were top down, focused at preserving communal forests, gaining the land under the authority of forest department. This increased the area till the year 1975, enhancement of public forest yield and generating the earnings from the forests. Under military government in 1980s, forest policy was formulated promulgated. Significance of the involvement of local people in plantation was recognized in this policy. Local people’s rights were limited by bringing more area of land under the category of national parks and under state’s control lands. A donor driven policy was presented in the year 1991 by the elected government. The main emphasis was to see the environmental requirements of the country in a way that is sustainable. Similar to some policies presented previously the main target was to increase the production and extensionists were the concepts originated in this policy. They will educate the farmers and enhance their interest in farm forestry and forest management. Contribution of stakeholders, endurable forest management, acceptable incomes were the main concepts provide in the forest policy of 2001. But 2001’s policy maintained negative feature such as encouraging the police like that of the attitude of the Department of Forestry. The perusal also showed that the past forest policies of the year 1955, 1962, 1975 and 1980 were elated with reshaping of the authorities to meet the political objectives of the government (Shehbaz et al, 2007).

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4.3.9 Strategies for controlling forest area reduction in Pakistan For meeting the calls of an increasing population, activities of humans will continue to cause a lot of changes to land cover, the climate, bio-geochemical cycles and biodiversity and ecosystem services. The most important part of tropical woods in biodiversity and modification in climate has steered the world to quest for constructive options to lower the rate of deforestation. Severely secured areas, which forbid most anthropogenic activities, were common in the early days of conservation and remain so today. As a substitute to strict protected zones, Community Forest Management arose in the late 1980s (Hutton et al., 2005). In the tropical areas the Community Forest Management is a far spread approach for the conservation. It is also sponsored as a mode by which expense for ecosystem services schemes can be enacted (Rasolofosan, 2015). By nobility of including local forest users in managing, community forest management is encouraged as possessing the ability to profit both forests and native livelihoods (Behera, 2009). Forestry institutions in Pakistan should also be assessed to achieve the common goals. The formal and informal local forestry institutions must be functional as they complement each other to achieve the common goals. In planning the forest’s management, it would result in an exceedingly demanding expert role for the planner. All relevant issues must be considered, e.g. biodiversity management, would also be clearer (Leskinen, 2004). The area of forest plantations and their support to the production of wood products is growing considerably on a worldwide scale (Bael and Sedjo, 2006; Vance et al., 2010). Protected areas must be declared by the same departments of different provinces. Already, Pakistan has 14 national parks, 101 wildlife sanctuaries and 96 game reserves. These are being operated each with its own territory. Around 11 % of the total country’s area is covered by these three categories. In the province of Punjab the Lal Suhanra national park Punjab has been declared a biosphere. Forest area of Pakistan is being lost due to a variety of reasons such as climate change, population increase, expansion of farming land, transmigration and colonization schemes, industrialization, Moreover, urbanization, corruption and political cause, unchecked rate of wood utilization are some added factors. Various strategies can be adapted to save our natural ecosystem such as by reducing population growth and increased incomes, increasing the area and standard of managing the protected areas. These can also be protected by

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Results and Discussions Chapter 4 increasing forest area, by strengthening government and NGO’s institutions and policies, and by improving the information base.

4.3.10 Recommendation to prevent degradation of Forests Deforestation contributes an important proportion of GHG emissions and it requires to be reduced. Administrations have to take into account the numerous matters to attain this aim. First, the information gap on the expenses and paybacks of substitute land uses has to be filled. Administrations must fund investigation for this matter to let comparable analyses in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. We must keep in mind the wider economic and social expenses of evading deforestation. Secondly, administrations must back the addition of deforestation and forest deprivation stoppage in the heir to the Kyoto Protocol in order to generate a market for carbon credits from these actions. Direct help from industrialized to emerging nations will not be adequate to cover the cost of evading deforestation. Even a lesser end of the spectrum cost of 10 billion US$ amounts to almost 10 % of worldwide development support delivered in 2006 (OECD, 2007).

4.3.11 Workable Policy and Strategic Imperatives On the basis of the above discussion, a schematic diagram 4 has also been constructed showing the policy and strategic imperatives for avoiding unfriendly impact of climate change on forests. First of all, we must take a start from the grass root level to myopically look at the problems and issues. The education of communities living in potential areas is necessary. Importance of the policies regarding protection of forests should be well designed and documented. We must learn how to formulate the policies, whom to involve and what are the vital points that must be kept in mind. Then, it comes the mutual understanding among the concerned departments and stakeholders. If the information is not shared or they do not consult each other than the policies cannot be helpful on sustainable basis. When the policies are made, the implementation plan must be good because if there is no such plan then the policies are just a piece of paper.

The key stakeholders are the provisional governments, the private institutions, educational institutions including academia. When the policy of climate change was made in 2012, every province endorsed it as every province was present in the cabinet.

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Similarly, the forest policy was made after consulting every concerned person and department. Definitely they have any important role because they will have to implement, so from the day one they are kept on the board. A sound policy should be made with the sound implementation plan and the government should provide the resources for it. The good mitigation and adaptation process regarding the climate change can be done. Not merely the effect of climate change can be stopped but could be reversed too.

4.3.12 Recommendation to mitigate Climate Change The emerging nations of Asia like Pakistan, where effects of climate alteration are probable to be sensed harshly due to source and infrastructure limitations. This requires growing and applying adaptation policies and guidelines to exploit no regress processes and emphasizing the significance of considering climate change in planning, scheming and applying progressive actions. Macro strategy is the first and includes speedy maintainable and fair growth. That will increase the level of income, practical and educational abilities, increase public food distribution, calamity readiness and health care systems and decrease susceptibility. Micro strategy is the second tactic and comprises administration of areas vulnerable to the variations in climate. Meaning of this is to evolve new organizations or alter current ones to encourage adjustment to climate variation. It also contains the changing climate-sensitive infrastructures previously intended or applied or other longstanding choices that are prone to climate. Sustained observing and examination of erraticism and drifts in important climatic fundamentals is the necessity of the day. Climate predicting systems in the area must be enhanced and apply modifications on land-use planning. Innovative practices for assured forecast of local climate variation and its erraticism, counting dangerous events must be applied. Synchronization of climate change adaptation actions amongst nations in the region might be improved and non-governmental organization, public and the community must be kept alert of growths on jeopardize of climate variation and include them in preparation, adaptation, and alleviation plans.

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Figure 11: Schematic diagram showing Keys of Public Policy designing

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In this connection, some of the workable strategies for reduced deforestation include the reduction in growth of population and increase in incomes. Moreover, there is need of reduction of the degrading forest’s emissions and increasing the area and management standards of preserved areas. We may need to increase the area of forest constantly contained for timber production along with increasing the perceived and actual value of forests. Promoting sustainable management, encouraging the substitutes and increasing area of forest plantation might be the other workable strategies. It is also important to strengthen the government and NGO and schemes through participatory forest management and rights as well as support and reforms. Another workable option may be an increasing investment in research, education and extension along with strategy, parliamentary and controlling measures with enforcement and acquiescence.

4.4 Scanning Electron Microscopy Of Important Tree Seeds 4.4.1 SEM (Scanning Electron Microscopy) Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) is normally used to address the role of these trees in climate change through authentication. Seed sculpture of Acacia modesta, Acacia nilotica, Albizia lebbeck, Averrhoa carambola, Azadirachta indica, Eucalyptus citriodora , Pongamia pinnata are shown in Plate 1 and 2 respectively. Some of previous studies as for instance (Ashfaq et al., 2018) also display the implication of SEM in the identification of other group of plants. Qualitative characters studied were seed shape and colour, hilum shape and position and Pleugram state. Seeds of the selected trees vary in shape from elliptical, ovoid or spherical and cuboid. The pleugram state appear to be U-shape or hippocrepiform while hilum may be elliptical, concave or convex and may be either terminal or sub terminal in position (Table 11). Different other traits of the seed like form, seed size, hue, hilum shape position and seed surface ornamentation were also reported in previous literature that can be helpful in identification of plants groups (Gunn, 1971). Quantitative characters of the seed comprise seed size which includes seed length and width. It also includes length to width ratio which varies from species to species. Average value of the measurement of ten seeds is taken (Table 12). According to Mathur

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Results and Discussions Chapter 4 et al., (1984), the morphological difference between seeds could be of genetic origin, due to the adaptive strategies of species to their environment. The phenotypic plasticity of the species in response to micro habitat factors can explain the differences of seed morphology (Heaton et al., 1999; Assogbadjo et al., 2005). Plants growing in unpredictable environments have evolved adaptations related to seed morphology and physiology (Venable and Brown, 1988). Seed traits are determined both by seed genotype and parental environment (Galloway, 2001). The seed traits vary with environmental conditions like temperature (Lacey, 1996), photoperiod (Munir et al., 2001), nutrient availability (Parrish and Bazzaz, 1985) or soil moisture conditions (Gutterman, 1993). Both macro and micro morphological types of seeds play an important role in taxonomic identification and classification (Sa'ad, 1980; Hosny and Zareh, 1993; Javadi and Yamaguchi, 2004; Fawzi, 2011). Previous literature has also shown that seed coat morphology can be used for identification purpose (Karakish et al., 2013). In the present study, SEM observation has been done on eight tree species in which various characters are studied. Seed surface own different morphological characters which can be used for the taxonomic determinations (Yildiz, 2002).

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Table 11 Quantitative characters and SEM analysis of seeds of tree species.

Seed Seed Length Width Seed Weight (mm) Min- L/W Weight Number Min- Species Min-Max Max Ratio (Ave) / of Seeds Max (g) (Mean (Mean 1g in 1 g ±SE) ±SE) (mm) Acacia modesta 4-8.5 3-5 1.01 0.05 16 0.03- (6.3±2.0) (4.2±2.3) 0.08 Acacia nilotica 3-7.8 3-5.5 1.5 0.13 8 0.06- (5.6±1.3) (4.3±1.3) 0.20 Albizia lebbeck 5-9.6 4-6 1.39 0.08 12 0.05- (7.4±1.4) (5±4.1) 0.11 Averrhoa carambola 1.5-4 0.6 -1.2 1.73 0.06 22 0.03- (2.9±2.1) (1.9±3.2) 0.09 Azadirachta indica 5-8 2-4.5 1.82 0.02 47 0.01- (6.5±3.2) (3.4±1.1) 0.04 Eucalyptus 2.5-4.5 1-3 18.47 0.11 32 0.02- citriodora (3.3±1.5) (2±1.4) 0.06 Pongamia pinnata 3-6 0.5-3 2.63 0.14 34 0.03- (4.5±2.1) (2±3.2) 0.07 Prosopis cineraria 3-8 3-5 1.51 0.08 11 0.04- (5.2±4.1) (4.3±1.1) 0.13

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Table 12 Qualitative characters and SEM findings of seeds of tree species

Seed Color Seed Hilum Shape/ Seed Surface Texture Pleurogram Fracture line Taxon Color External level Shape Ornamentatio crudeness shape pattern Internal n

Acacia modesta Greenish Yellow Elliptical and Spherical Rugose Coarse Lunar shape Parallel brown Raised and flat ridges Acacia nilotica Blackish Yellow Dome shape Elliptical Rugose Coarse O- shape Deep ridges brown and Raised reticulate Albizia lebbeck Brown Yellow Elliptical and Ovate Rugose Medium O- shape Irregular Raised Averrhoa carambola Chocolate Off Raised Ovate Rugose Fine O- shape Irregular white Azadirachta indica Shiny black Creamy Elliptical and Elliptical Levigate Glabrous O- shape Irregular Depressed reticulate ridges Eucalyptus citriodora Yellowish Light Grooved Cuboid Oblong Glabrous Elliptical reticulate yellow brown Pongamia pinnata Chocolate Off Raised Elliptic Rugose Medium Elliptical Irregular white Prosopis cineraria Brown Yellow Elliptical and Ovoid Polygonal Coarse Elliptical Irregular convex discoid reticulate

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A B

C D

Plate 4: (A) Acacia modesta, (B) Seed(LM), (C) Seed (SEM), (D) Seed sculpturing (SEM)

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A B

C D

Plate 5: (A) Acacia nilotica, (B) Seed (LM), (C) Seed (SEM), (D) Seed sculpturing (SEM)

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A B

B C Plate 6: (A) Albizia lebbeck, (B) Seed (LM), (C) Seed (SEM), (D) Seed sculpturing (SEM)

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A B

B C

Plate 7: (A) Averrhoa carambola, (B) Seed (LM), (C) Seed (SEM), (D) Seed sculpturing (SEM)

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A B

C D

Plate 8: (A) Azadirachta indica, (B) Seed (LM), (C) Seed (SEM), (D) Seed sculpturing (SEM)

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A B

B D

Plate 9: (A) Eucalyptus citriodora, (B) Seed (LM), (C) Seed (SEM), (D) Seed sculpturing (SEM)

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A B

C D

Plate 10: (A) Pongamia pinnata, (B) Seed (LM)), (C) Seed sculpturing (SEM)

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A B

B C

Plate 11: (A) Prosopis cineraria, (B) Seed (LM) (C) Seed (SEM), (D) Seed sculpturing (SEM)

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4.4.2 Ethnobotanical Uses of Important Tree Species In the current study medicinally important tree species that play a role in climate change were documented including their botanical description, economic uses and phytochemical constituents. The data are used to see the benefits of the trees along with their role in meeting the challenges faced by the mankind due to the changes in climate. The detailed inventory is provided in Table 13.

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Table 13 Botanical description, Economical uses and active Phytochemicals of medicinally important trees.

Botanical Names / voucher specimen No./ Local Parts Morphological Active Phyto- Family name Habit Used Description Diseases Economical uses chemicals Treated

Acacia modesta Phulai Tree Stem, Leaves Small or medium sized Gas trouble It is commonly used in the Flavonoids, alkaloids, Wall., Pl. Asiat. /SA deciduous tree, bark making plough and other terpenoids and tannins brownish agricultural tools. (Bukhari et al., 2010). Acacia nilotica (L.) Kikar Tree Whole Medium sized, thorny, Diarrhea A truly multipurpose tree, widely Terpenoids ,Tannins, Willd. ex Delile,/SA Plant nearly evergreen tree, used as a timber, source of fodder, Alkaloids, Saponins, 88/Mimosacea e height 20-25 m,, trunk tannin and gum, as a fence, shade Glycosides (Banso, 2009). short, thick (1 m in and fuel tree used widely in diameter) and constructions, for railway cylindrical, covered sleepers, mine props, tool handles with grey and carts.

Albizia lebbeck Shireen Tree Whole Deciduous tree with Eyes & When dried and pounded, the Alkaloids, Carbohydrates, L. /SA 209/Fabaceae Plant an open, large, lungs bark can be used for soap. Proteins, Amino Acid, spreading crown, problem Wood is used for medium Glycosides, Saponins, height of class utilities. Steroids, Tannins, 15-20 m

Averrhoa carambola Kamr Tree Fruit, Small, much- High blood The fresh juice is an Alkaloid, Flavonoid, L. nga Flower, branched, pressure/cou effective stain remover. Glycoside /SA 101/ Leaves evergreen tree 3 - gh The wood is a suitable Carbohydrate Oxalidaceae 5 meters tall, /asthma candidate for firewood. Saponins, Steroids sometimes (Das et al., 2013). reaching a height of 10 meters. Azadirachta indica Neem Tree Whole Evergreen tree, 5 Purifies A , obtained from the Alkaloids , Steroids , A.Juss./SA Plant metres tall with Blood/ trunk by wounding the bark, Flavanoids, 66/Meliaceae occasional Malaria is added to soap, toothpaste Glycocides, specimens up to 25 and skin lotions. The main Terpinoides, Carbohyd meters short, stem of the tree is also rates (Raphael, 2012) straight bowl that widely used to make can be 100cm in posts for construction Bauhinia racemosa Jhinjera Tree Stem, Small tree with a Skin Ailments Inner bark gives fiber that Phenolics, Flavonoids, Lam./SA Leaves short, unbranched like Rashes, is used for ropes. Green Saponins, Glycocides, 403/Fabaceae somewhat crooked Pimples, Acne, leaves are eaten by cattle. Alkaloides, Tannins bole. Spreading Abscess, and (Sharanabasappa et al crown. Ulcers. 2013)

Cassia fistula Amaltas Tree Whole Deciduous or Tonsils and The bark is used for Proanthocyanidins, L. /SA 104/Fabaceae Plant semi-deciduous motions tanning and dyeing. It flavonoids tree., can grow 10 provides a hard (Luximon-Ramma - 15 metres tall., multipurpose timber et al., 2002) bole can be 40 - that can be used for 50cm in diameter buildings, carts, fence posts, agricultural implements. Cedrus deodara Deodar Tree Leaves, Evergreen tree Digestive Used primarily in Wikstromal, (Roxb. ex D.Don) Bark dark-green foliage Treatment buildings for beams, matairesinol, G.Don forming a typical door and window frames dibenzylbutyrolacto /SA conical crown and shutters l (Singh et al., 20/Pinaceae 2007) Cordia sinensis Liyaar Tree Whole Usually reaching a Hepatitis / Used generally for Protocatechuic acid , Lam./SA plant height of up to 4 infections after roofing, construction of trans-caffeic acid , 92/Boraginace ae meters, though it injury local houses, tool methyl rosmarinate , sometimes becomes handles walking sticks, rosmarinic acid, a bushy tree up to arrow shafts and kaempferide-3-O-β- 12 meters. club.Used as fuel wood. D- glucopyranoside (Al- Musayeib et al., 2011))

Eucalyptus citriodora (Hook.) Safaida Tree Leaves, Medium to large, Infections The leaves and the Essential oils, K.D.Hill & L.A.S.Johnson. Wood evergreen tree, pale essential oil are used Alkaloid, Steroid / SA 14/ grey, cream or pink as an insect Volatile oils Fat, Myrtaceae powdery bark usually repellent. Wood is Tannins, 25 - 40 metres tall. used as fuel, and to Carbohydrates- make match stick Saponin Flavonoid and paper (Makhaik et al., 2005) Crataeva adansonii DC. ema Tree Whole Deciduous tree, Bladder Used in local Alkaloids, Cardiac /SA 105/ Plant usually grows from Stones villages to make glycosides, Capparaceae 3-10 meters tall., drums and artifacts. Anthraquinones, bole is irregular and Steroids, Tannins, seldom straight. Saponins, Flavonoids, Reducing sugars (Tsado et al., 2015) Roxb. ex Tali Tree Leaves Deciduous medium- Skin The wood is suitable Carbohydrates, DC. / SA 15/ Fabaceae sized tree growing up for house proteins, flavonoids to 30 meters tall, bole construction, e.g. and tannins (Brijesh is 8 meters, For door and et al., 2006)) occasionally for as window shutters and much as 20 metres frames, flooring and paneling, and also for cabinet making, vehicle bodies, boat building, handles, implements such as shoe lasts, turnery, carving, veneer and .

Ficus benghalensis Borh Tree Leaves, Bark, Evergreen tree with a Dysentery, The wood is Saponins, Tannins and L. /SA 11/ Root wide, spreading diarrhea, light in weight, Flavonoids (Aswar et crown. toothache, water-resistant. al., 2008). 20 - 30 metres or bruises, Ficus religiosa Peepal Tree Whole Evergreen tree Skin The fibrous bark Tannins, saponins, L. /SA 312/ Plant with a wide- diseases is used to make flavonoids, steroids, Moraceae spreading paper. The low- terpenoids and cardiac crown,15 - 30 quality wood may glycosides (Babu et al., be used for 2013) packing cases and Pongamia pinnata Sukh Tree Whole Fast-growing, Diabet for cabinet β-sitosterol, karanjin, L./SA Chain plant medium-sized, es making, pongamol, pongagla- 117/Fabaceae evergreen or Bites cartwheels, posts, brone, pongapin, deciduous, glabrous Wound agricultural kangone, shrub or tree, usually s implements, tool glabrachromene, grows 15 - 25 metres handles and pongajflavone, pongol, tall combs. suitable as glabrachrome- (Babu et a source of pulp al., 2013) for paper making

Morus alba Toot Tree Whole Moderately fast- Tonsil The twigs are used as binding Carbohydrates, L./SA Safaid Plant growing, deciduous s and material and for making proteins, fibers, fats, 513/Moraceae shrub or tree, 20 - 35 liver baskets used for construction, minerals, vitamins metres tall fairly disord boat building, furniture, quercetin 3-O-β- cylindrical, straight ers agricultural implements, glucopyranoside-7-O- bole up to 50cm in posts, beams, flooring, bridge α-rhamnopyranoside, diameter. building, cabinet work, and kaempferol-7- O- turnery, especially picker glucoside and arms, bobbins and tool quercetin-3-O- handles. rhamnopyranoside-7- Oglucopyranoside (Thabti et al., 2012) Phoenix Khajoo r Tree Fruit, Single-stemmed, Laxative A fiber obtained from the Flavonoids, Tannins , dactylifera L. / SA Leave evergreen palm tree leaves, base of the leaves Saponins , Glycosides, 118/ growing 15 - 40 and bark can be used to Cardiac Glycoside, Arecaceae metres tall, terminal make ropes, baskets, hats Volatile Oil, Steroids crown and mats. The wood in the (Sadiq et al., 2013) outer portion of the stem is strong and resistant to Prosopis Jhand Tree Whole Small thorny, Chronic Used for making boat Alkaloids, cineraria L. Plant irregularly dysentery frames, houses, posts, and Carbohydrate es, /SA branched, tool handle. It is an Proteins, Tannins, 110/Fabaceae evergreen tree, excellent fuel, also giving Flavonoid (Preeti et al., 2015)

Terminalia arjuna Arjun Tree Whole Very large evergreen tree Treats Used for number Phytosterols, (Roxb. ex DC.) Wight plant that grows up to 30 meters urinary of purposes Triterpenoids, &Arn. /SA tall, bole infections including the Saponins, Alkaloids, construction of Flavonoids, Lactones, carts and boats, for general Ziziphus mauritiana Bairi Tree Whole Much-branched, evergreen, Nausea, Suitable for the Alkaloids, flavonoids, Lam. /SA plant thorny tree,15 meters tall Dysentery production of terpenoids, saponin 16/Rhamnacea e with a bole 40cm or more veener and and pectin (Goyal et in diameter. plywood. al., 2012) Basically, any product that needs a durable, close- grained wood can be made from it, produces excellent firewood and good charcoal. Its drooping branches are easily accessible for harvesting. Source: Data documented from local informant during field survey

Results and Discussions Chapter 4

4.4.3 A Composite Analysis Finally, a composite analysis was pursued to integrate the quantitative, qualitative, laboratory experiments of SEM and support from existing body of literature. Climate impact indicators were listed in second column of Table 14 which are justified in the form of very low, low, moderate, high and very high scales. As for instance, it has been quantitatively proved that there is moderate kind of impact of climate change due to change in minimum temperature but its extent is in the ‘very high’ range due to change in maximum temperature. Similarly, the qualitative results show a ‘very low’ range of impact of climate change in terms of change in minimum and maximum temperature. Laboratory experiments implicitly depict a ‘moderate’ impact of both minimum and maximum temperature changes. Literature is completely supporting these qualitative and quantitative arguments as is revealed from the ‘very high’ scale. Similarly, all other climate change indicators show diversified scenarios in these innovatively constructed scales.

Table 14 An Integrated Analytical Matrix No. Climate Impact Indicators Quantitative Analysis Qualitative Analysis Laboratory Literary Experiments Support 1 Change in Min. Moderate Very Low Moderate Very High Temperature 2 Change in Max. Very High Very High Moderate Very High Temperature 3 Winter Rainfall High Very High --- Very High 4 Summer Rainfall Very High Very High --- Low 5 Yield of major crops Very High Very High Moderately High suffered 6 Tendency towards High Very High ---- High deforestation 7 Deformation of Plants High High Very High Low 8 Impact on Arid Regions Very High Very High Very High Moderate 9 Yield of major crops Very High Very High Very High Very High

10 Degradation by Very High ------High anthropogenic activities ----

11 Damage by Green House ----- Very High ------High gases 12 General Impact on Forests ----- High ------Moderate

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4.4.4 Strategies or Policies to Mitigate Climate Change

The mitigation of GHG’s have several approaches (FAO, 2010) which include Reducing the GHG’s emissions, avoiding or displacing the emissions and sinking can be created to remove the emissions. The bio-remediation techniques have been developed to limit the effects of climate change. Phytoremediation can be used where fast-growing tree species can be grown to use the carbon dioxide during photosynthesis thereby reducing the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR) reported that the forest sector has a biophysical mitigation potential of 5,380 Mt CO2 per year on average (Kauppi and Sedjo,2001). Said by the United Nations that the tropical forests are to be protected to ensure climatic stability. More and more afforestation and its techniques must be promoted across the country. Controlled grazing should be implemented near the forest areas. Fast growing species should be introduced. Illegal cutting of forests should be strictly prohibited. It not only destroys the biodiversity but also releases the collected carbon into the atmosphere. Last but not least, education should be provided to the potential agricultural and forests scientists from the very basic level. Awareness among the public should be made regarding plantation of trees in their vicinity. Seed germination is predicted to be one of the most at-risk stages for plant regeneration in a changing climate. Overcoming seed dormancy, promoting germination, and seedling establishment are critical stages in plant regeneration, with consequences for plant fitness, population persistence, and colonization of new sites. Understanding how early life stages vary among species and at the population level is essential to accurately predicting responses to climate change and to implement successful restorations. Water resources and temperature are serious environmental regulators for germination of seeds and the regulator of dormancy, at the center of plant rejuvenation. Therefore, worldwide climate alteration is varying these environmental signals and will prevent, postpone, or improve seeds regeneration, as previously acknowledged in few cases. Alongside with conceded seedling appearance and potency, changes in phenology of germination will affect population dynamics, and therefore, composition of species and variety of communities.

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Duarte et al. (2018) studied that variation in temperature due to abrupt climate change may effects the germination pattern of the crops as well as other wild species and concluded that the determination of effects of thermal thresholds for germination can be useful to identify species including various crops vulnerability to climate change and to promote strategies for conservation of species. In another study, Bykova et al. (2012) reported that regeneration niches and reproductive success are related to environmental temperatures, so that essentially all aspects of plant reproductive cycles are potentially sensitive to climate change. Any variation in seed germination pattern may be used as indicator to climate change. In face of climate change, plant species may compensate by altering phenological events such as earlier budding or flowering may lead to earlier seed set, or be compensated for by later seed development and maturation (Hoffmann et al. 2010). In facts of above observations, Peter et al. (2009) reported that ongoing climate change, the dormancy and germination characteristics minimize autumn germination and stimulate earlier and more synchronous emergence over a wider range of temperatures the following spring. In literature, it is indicated that climate warming may influence the population dynamics of relict tree species by altering their seed germination patterns, especially for the leading-edge populations along latitudinal gradient. It is vital to take inter-population variation across species’ geographic distribution into account when estimating the impact of environmental changes on plant species’ distribution and population persistence. The effect of climate on germination may vary according to nature of plant species. It is reported that warmer and dryer climate will favor germination of drought‐tolerant species resulting in altered proportions of germinants of different species and subsequently change in community composition and crop production at various level (Yi et al., 2019).

The change in seed maturing which contains repercussions for dispersion and the mass of seed will have aftermaths on life antiquity characters of floras. Foretold variations in rainfall, temperature and therefore in moistness of the soil, will have effect on several constituents of seed perseverance in soil, for example prolonged existence of seed and pathogenic activity of soil. Geographic dispersal for species is more/less caused by equitable climate but limited migrant ability in few will significantly halt their response.

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Seed characters for weedy species might progress comparatively fast to keep up with climate alteration increasing their harmful environmental and financial effect. In ecosystems which are under study there is amplified investigation on the key matters which are linked to kernel ecology and development of kernel characters in no weedy species is desired to grasp more completely and planned for reactions of plants to worldwide warming. Climate has a huge impact on recruitment of plant (Adler and Hille Ris Lambers, 2008), and at the center of revival, water supply and temperature (exclusively by rainfall) aren’t merely serious drivers for the distribution of plants (Woodward and Williams, 1987) but also drive dormancy of seed (commencement, pause) and germination (radicle emergence). Henceforth, climatic changes alongside additional environmental fluctuations (for example use of land) that affects ecological indications will certainly disturb plant’s recruitment and consequently, population dynamics (Walck and Dixon, 2009). Early phases of development in plants are highly responsive to climate variation than mature phases, and as such, symbolize a chief blockage to recruitment (Dalgleish et al., 2010).

The appearance of seedling is typically interconnected with seasonal variations in the surroundings (Fenner and Thompson, 2005). After dispersal, germination of some species occurs very quickly, while some other species are hindered because of dormancy till a favorable climatic condition for seedlings when they are expected to live, nurture, and to replicate. Dependent on the species, predicted variations in ecological indications might preclude, interrupt, or accelerate the revival from seeds. Influences at the organismal phase continue to the population and community, with very composite relations and results. For instance, the spatial recruitment’s configuration which is determined by germination is changed by facilitation (Batllori et al., 2009) but its part concerning seedling’s establishment differs for some species geographically (Castro et al., 2004). For structuring vegetation dynamics, detailed information on regeneration under climate change is required (Morin and Thuiller, 2009). Still, the general influence of climate variation on regeneration of plant has mostly been ignored (Hedhly et al., 2009). Now, we evaluate the influences of variations in climate on flora rejuvenation concentrating on fortune of seeds that are dispersed, particularly the characteristics which are obstructed

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Results and Discussions Chapter 4 due to the dampness and temperature Afterward, concise general idea of seed germination and dormancy of seed, we review some strategies of germination which are lying in the ecosystems within the structure of change in climate and studies about changings in the climate done up till now Ecosystems are divided into wide-ranging groups grounded on the main factor (moisture vs. temperature) preventive recruitment. Also, predicted soil moisture is used, as a harder forecaster of plant establishment ability as compared to rainfall, to forecast influences of alteration in climate. Result of predicted variations in supply of water, temperature and in flora is deficient, primarily at native or local scales like in, South Africa (Hannah et al., 2005).

The assessment relates to the scales based on continents. Circuitously, variation in the climate might affect specie’s population dynamics by impacting germination of seed through maturing of seed, the mass of seed or by persistence of seed in the soil. At maturity, there are two states which a seed can possess i.e. dormant and non-dormant. Dormant means that they germinate under some narrow environmental circumstances. Non-dormant means that they germinate over the widest set of conditions. Due to physiological inhibiting method, the seeds of most of species are non-dormant or possess dormancy. Moisture and temperature interrelate to cope up with the physiological block: warm (20–35oC) and dry circumstances which are also known as after ripening, moist and warm situations known as warm stratification, or cold (0– 10oC) and moist situations (cold stratification). Whereas one of these surroundings might overcome species dormancy, other may persuade dormancy. In soil seed banks the dormancy cycling for seeds is caused by seasonal variations in circumstances for example in winters the decline in temperature promotes dormancy and rise in temperature breaks dormancy (Benech-Arnold et al., 2000). Physical dormancy might be shattered signs of temperature and moisture as well, for example cold and heat cycles. When seeds are non-dormant, numerous ecological indications activate the germination (Fig. 1). Germination and dormancy halt are definitely dissimilar procedures (Fenner and Thompson, 2005), and as such, climate variation will distress them self-sufficiently. Here we try to keep them detached, although mix-up sometimes ascends, for example, when temperature show a double part in controlling both

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Results and Discussions Chapter 4 germination and dormancy The first clue of the starting of germination is when the shoot becomes visible above the soil surface.(Fenner and Thompson, 2005).

Depending on their behavior towards the dryness, the seeds are set- apart into 2 broad categories (Pritchard et al., 2004). With very less moisture content, the desiccation tolerant (orthodox) seed maintains feasibility, whereas, to conserve the seed viability huge level of moisture is needed in (recalcitrant) desiccation sensitive seeds. Seed class is affected by the dampness and temperature dependent methods of seed maturation and development (Copeland and McDonald, 1995). Certainly, In the subalpine zones the seed germination was improved due to warming (Kullman, 2002). The viability of these seeds was also greater for Alnus viridis developing in the ever- increasing thaw slumps, which are warmer and richer in nutrients than undisturbed tundra (Lantz et al., 2009). Germination and life history is affected by the dispersion’s timing of maturing of seeds. Imitating present styles through an experiment starting sooner flowering in Campanulastrum americanum headed to seed’s early dispersal and germination with an improved oftenest of annual offspring as paralleled with biennial descendants (Galloway and Burgess, 2009). Warming usually results in phenological variations in plants, but species vary whether they express these variations instantaneously or after years (Hoffmann et al., 2010). In the alpine, arctic and boreal sites, the growth of seeds was independent to temperature for the Empetrum nigrum and Vaccinium uliginosum (Wagner and Mitterhofer, 1998). Actually, the great output of matured seeds irrespective of climate situations in the latter species, which is self-pollinated, proposes warming might not have ample influence generally. With the new warming for species in the Mediterranean Basin, the fruit and seed maturation has progressed especially in spring (Gordo and Sanz, 2009; Gordo and Sanz, 2010). Quick maturing was observed due to artificially induced warming for few species in sub-alpine and Arctic tundra (XU et al., 2009; Molau and Shaver, 1997). In the sub-alpines of Australia the maturation of seeds were influenced by the artificially induced warming for 1 of 9 (9 days early) species and burning for 5 species ; warming in grouping and fire affected none of them (Jarrad et al., 2009). Mass of seeds affects the many plant characters from dispersal potential to soil seed bank’s longevity and growth rates of seedlings (Fenner and Thompson, 2005).

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In the grass lands of temperate zones neither warming nor CO2, improved masses of seeds in the C3 grass Elymus scaber, reduced masses of seeds in the C3 grass Austrodanthonia caespitosa and the forb Hypochaeris radicata, whereas no action affected mass in thirteen other species (Hovenden et al., 2007).

The bulk of seeds in alpine herbs was improved by warming. In soil hydrology and nutrients, the warming effects might be mediated by alterations. When the temperature is raised and the nutrients applications in the Arctic, the mass of D. octopetala seeds can be improved (Wookey et al., 1995). But that of Eriophorum vaginatum seeds did so only with warming. Also, germination of both species was clearly related with seed mass (Molau and Shaver, 1997). Alteration in climate will interrelate with other disorders which are caused by humans that splinter the landscape and abolish or decrease habitat class. The ability to work successfully of seeds for the Mediterranean gypsum (Centaurea hyssopifolia) for only those plants that belongs to heavy remains and the only plants that were irrigated (equal to a typical year), while the seeds that were terminated were uppermost for non-irrigated (equal to a dry scenarios in coming future) floras in huge specks (Matesanz et al., 2009). Due to inbreeding that is related to the population size and inadequate pollinator attainability, viability of seeds in small fragments might be reduced. The heaviest seeds are formed by superior habitats or plants from large tracts of land.

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4.5 Conclusion

Climate change is formidable challenge confronting the agriculture and forests sectors of Pakistan. It may cut agricultural yields putting further pressure on remaining forests because it is most likely that farmers will respond by clearing forest land for extending cultivated areas. Pakistan is ranked 12th most vulnerable country according to global climate risk index of 2014. There is an urgent need to realign public policies in order to cope with climatic changes effectively and efficiently. This study employed novel data from 25 districts of Punjab representing distinct agro ecological zones in Pakistan to analyze the adaptive capacities of our farmers and best available choices for adaptation approaches. Marginal impacts were found to be negative under all yearly based climatic variables. The farmers operating under non-irrigated environment were the extreme sufferers because of non-availability of irrigation water. It was further noticed that temperature’s fluctuation was more serious than rainfall patterns. Rabi-Kharif configuration of climatic variables reveals that Net Farm Revenue (NFR) showed an increase of $ 654.67 per hectare with 10oC increase in Rabi maximum temperature. The same scenario for non-irrigated farms was in the form of decrease of $ 2583.18. It was also noted that with the increase of 10oC in winter and summer maximum temperatures; there may be decrease in NFR by $ 1608.49 and $ 1479.24 respectively. Anticipatory adjustment to climate variation as using heat resistant varieties is highly desirable but puzzling as well because we lack the infrastructural and institutional support for extending adaptation across all sectors and parts of population in our country. It is emphasized that adaptations approaches need to be prescriptive and dynamic, rather than descriptive and static. In another section Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) was used for identification of seeds of selected trees. Secondary data regarding economically important crops and forest tree species in respect to climate change was collected from forest department, agriculture department and local farmers. In this way, twenty species of forest trees were selected, collected and ethnobotanically documented for their economic uses. Out of these species, eight tree species were studied using SEM to analyze their seeds morphology for correct identification. The main

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focus of SEM was on seed sculpturing in order to develop linkage with climate change and seed morphology. The qualitative part of in-depth interviews concluded that there is a need to relocate the susceptible species of trees in forests and crops to less prone areas and regions. Policies ensuring the protection of investment of farmers should be developed. The study also identified the real and perceived constraints impeding appropriate climatic change adaptation for farmers and . Most of such constraints are of institutional nature. Policies supporting induction of climate smart varieties, promoting soil conservation and new adaptation measures based on different agro ecological zones is necessary. In spite of indigenous and localized adaptation approaches research at macro level is also needed so as to revisit our adaptation choices made abreast of modern times.

4.5.1 Recommendations As the global warming is scaling up and posing serious threats to the many forest species across Pakistan, it poses significant challenge to crop yields and disrupting ecological communities. The policy maker needs to scale up the localized solutions into execution for a safe future. These solutions include sensitization of communities for following government instructions regularly and avoiding illegal practices. It is imperative to promote sustainable renewable energy deployment by establishing robust environmental regulatory frameworks and applying strategic planning, sensitivity mapping and other measures to safeguards and mitigate negative impacts on nature and people. The government should introduce a weather alert system for the farmers. The findings of this research effort leave some important policy messages for the farmers and practitioners. It it is strongly recommended that some adaptation measures like that of changing is sowing times and irrigation pattern need to be taken for avoiding the impact of climate change on wheat, cotton, sugar cane and rice. Drought resistance varieties of these crops may be introduced. As small farmers are highly vulnerable to climate change, they should be provided financial and technical support along with

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Results and Discussions Chapter 4 advisory services to cope with its negative impact on Net Farm Revenue. A special climate resilient package should be available for the farmers of non-irrigated areas and arid regions. Similarly, institutional development and regulatory mechanism need to be framed for forest management under change climate scenarios. A strong coordination across agriculture department, forest department and food security ministry should be maintained so as to collectively respond the odd impact of climate change on agriculture and forest trees. Policy implementation is also important as in the perspective of forest trees strict measures need to be taken to constraint timber mafia for cutting of trees. Moreover, we need to help species in adaptation by managing the protected areas efficiently keeping the habitat intact and improving connectivity and managing it more sustainably. Non-climate threats like undue logging, fisheries, hunting and unsuitable agriculture and should be tackled to upsurge their resilience to climate change. Scale up investment in nature based solutions is required to climate change which on one hand will conserve the natural ecosystem and on the other hand will improve the resilience of people and nature. Imminent climate variation and biodiversity loss challenge can be addressed by catalyzing multi-stakeholder collaboration amid communities, civil society, public and private organizations and businesses.

4.5.2 Future Visions Keeping the significance of impact of climate change on important crops and forest trees, the scope of scientific, academic and policy research should be enhanced by replicating the same tested ideas at broad level. Panel data based studies may be conducted in future in which the ecosystem of a particular set of crops and trees should be regularly observed at least for a decade. Impact of climate can be evaluated at seed germination, flowering and fruiting stage of crops and trees. Night temperature and solar radiation may be important climatic variables in future studies.

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Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan 143 Annexure Publications

Outcome of Thesis (Publications)

S.# Title Journal List of Authors ISSN Vol/Issue , P . Impact No and Year Factor

1 Climate variability Fresinus Sohaib Arshad*, 1018-4619 27(8) 5363-5371 0.37 and crop production Environmental Mushtaq Ahmad, 2018 in Pakistan Bulletin Abdul Saboor

2 Role of trees in Microscopy Sohaib Arshad* , 1059910X 82(2), 92-100 1.147 Climate change and Research and Mushtaq Ahmad, .2018 their authentication Technique Abdul Saboor, through scanning Faridah Hanum electron microscopy Ibrahim , (SEM) Muhammad Raza Ul Mustafa , Muhammad Zafar, Shomaila Ashfaq

Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan

Annexure Publications

Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan

Annexure Publications

Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest Tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan

Appendix

Questionnaire for Ethnobotanical Survey Informants’ details: Age: ……………………………………………………………………..

Gender: ………………………………………………………………….

Education: …………………………………. Date: …………………….

Data about medicinal plants and its use:

Voucher number: …………………………………………………………

Local name of plant: ……………………………………………………..

Locality: ………………………………………………………………….

Habit: …………………………………………………………………….

Flowering period: ………………………………………………………..

Medicinal use: …………………………………………………………..

Plant part Used: ………………………………………………………….

Method of preparation: …………………………………………………...

Mode of administration: ………………………………………………….

Other uses (edible/ fodder/ fuel): …………………………………………

Remarks:

Botanical name: ……………………………………………………………

Family: …………………………………………………………………….

APPENDIX QUESTIONNAIRE Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Economically Important Crops and Forest tree Biodiversity to Climate Change in Pakistan Introduction

We are interested in tracing the impact of Climate Change (CC) on major crops in Pakistan. We will identify how the rental value of your agricultural land is associated with change in climatic variables like temperature, precipitation, humidity etc. For that matter we need to estimate Net Farm Revenue (NFR) which would be based on input and output related information of your major crops. Your kind participation in the provision of this important information would help us in visualizing the real time impact of CC on your NFR, thereby help the policy makers to frame a strategy for adaptation to and mitigation of CC.

Thanks a lot for your time and cooperation in this Ph.D. work.

Would you like to respond this questionnaire Yes------No------

Name of Interviewer

Date of Interview (mm/dd/yr)

Time Interview started: `

Time interview ended:

Interviewer (Name and Signature) Date

1. General information

Name of Farmer (along with contact number if possible

Village ______

Union council ______Tehsil ______District ______Division ______Province ______Family size (No.) ______Caste (bradari) of the family ______Farming Experience of the Respondent (years) ______

S No Time Gender Age Qualification Marital Employed Primary* Secondary* Income/E span Male=1 (No. of (No. of years Status On-farm, Occupation Occupation arning of Female = 2 years) of Schooling) 1=Married Off-farm or (along with (along with (Per Incom Both1 = On no. of days no. of days month in 2=Unmari e Farm2 =Off spent per spent per Rupees) ed week) week) I Ii Iii Iv V vi vii

1. A Profile of Household Characteristics

1= On-farm worker 2 = Employee 3= Business 4= Casual Labour 5 = House wife 6 = Student 7 = Unemployed and 8 = any other (specify) i. A Profile of Household Income

Sources of Income Monthly/Yearly Income Record of (Rs.)* information per unit of time 2.1 Sales of Crops (Wheat, Cotton, Rice and sugar cane) 2.2 Livestock and livestock products (Live animals, milk, meat and eggs) 2.3 Land rented out 2.4 Non-farm Income 2.4.1 Self employment 2.4.2 Pension 2.4.3 Remittances 2.4.4 Interest/Dividend 2.4.5 Rent of Building/equipment 3.5 Others

*Some figures are expected on monthly basis while others are on yearly basis

ii. Do you have following assets in the House

Items 1 = Yes; 2 = No Number

3.1 Car 3.2 Motor Cycle 3.3 TV 3.4 Refrigerator 3.5 Air Condition 3.6 Computer 3.7 CD player 3.8 Mobile phone 3.9 Land line phone 3.10 Washing Machine 3.11 Microwave oven 3.12 Others (specify)

iii. Farm Information

4.1 Farm area: 4.5 Types of farming: Unit Key: 1 = Canal irrigated 4.2 How many separate plot you 2 = Rain fed cultivate? (No.) 3 = Tube well 4=

Others (specify) 4.3 Farm size: 4.6 Land tenure:

Key: 1 = small Key: 1 = Owner 2 = medium 2 = Owner-cum tenant 3 = large 3 = Tenant 4.4 Area under cultivation at the 4.7 Soil Type: farm (in acres/hectare) Key: 1= Sandy; 2 = Clay; 3 = Loamy; 4 = Silty & 5 = Others (specify) 4.8 Land Rented-in (acres) 4.11 Amount of Rent (Rs.)

4.9 Amount of Rent (Rs.) 4.12 Land Share cropped

4.10 Land Rented out (acres) 4.13 Land kept Fallow

iv. Cropping Pattern and Production Cultivated area under each Per acre Yield Total Market Price of the crop quantity/output Crop i.e. selling produced price

Crops Area Unit Qty Unit Qty Unit Price Unit 5.1 Rabi

crops 5.1.1 Wheat 5.1.2 Others 5.2 Kharif

crops 5.2.1

Rice 5.2.2 Cotton 5.2.3

Sugarcane 5.2.4 Others

v. Crop Varieties Being Sown

V1* V2* varieties Sowing Time Harvesting Time

(Day and Month) (Day and Month) Crops Nam Are Uni Nam Are Unit Month Day Month Day

e a t e a 6.1 Rabi crops 6.1.1Wheat V1

V2 6.2 Kharif crops 6.2.1 Rice V1

V2 6.2.2 Cotton V1

V2 6.2.3 Sugarcane V1

V2

*V1 and V2 stand for first and second leading varieties of corresponding crop.

vi. Labour Cost of Production

Hired Labour Expenses Family Labour Expenses Items Total Total Daily Wage Total Total No. Days per Labour No. Days taken (Rs.) taken 7.1 Land Preparation 7.2 Sowing/planting 7.3 Weeding 7.4 Fertilizer Application 7.5 Irrigation Application 7.6 Pesticide Application 7.7 Weedicide Application 7.8 Harvesting 7.9 Post Harvest Processing 7.10 Any other 7.11 Total

vii. Cost of Production of Major Crops

Wheat Rice Cotton Sugarcane Others Items Q R A Q R A Q R A Q R A Q R A 8.1 Seed 8.2 Fertilizer

Urea DAP Others 8.3 Pesticide 8.4 Herbicide 8.5 Irrigation 8.6 Transportation 8.7 Culture practices 8.8 Threshing/harvesting 8.9 Machinery (operating

Cost) 8.10 Others(specify) Q, R & A stand for Quantity in kg, Rate in Rs. per kg or relevant SI unit & Amount in rupees respectively

viii. Disposal of Major Crops

Channels of Crop Wheat Rice Cotton Sugarcane Quantity Price Quantity Price Quantity Price per Quantity Price (Kg) per (Kg) per (Kg) Kg (Kg) per Kg Kg Kg 9.1 Sold to government 9.2 Sold to Private lenders 9.3 Kept at home for consumption 9.4 Kept for Seeds 9.5 Amount consumed by

Livestock 9.6 Amount lost due to disease and pest 9.7 Harvester’s Share if any 9.8 Thresher’s Share if any 9.9 Paid to Creditors if any 9.10 Any of the by- product sold 9.11 Others 9.12 Total

Distribution of districts covered under different agro-climatic zones (Adopted from Pickney, 1989). Zone Agro-Climatic Zones Districts Sialkot, Gujrat, Gujranwala, Sheikhupura, Lahore and I. Rice/Wheat Punjab Kasur Sargodha, , Jhang, Faisalabad, Okara and Toba II. Mixed Punjab Tek Singh Sahiwal, Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, , III. Cotton/Wheat Punjab Multan and Vehari and Khanewal Dera Ghazi Khan, Rajanpur, Muzaffargarh, Leiah, IV. Low intensity Punjab Mianwali, Bhakkar and Dera Ismail Khan V. Rainfed Punjab Attock, Jhelum, Chakwal, Rawalpindi and Islamabad

Overtime Trend of Yield of Major Crops (Kgs/Hectare)

Year Wheat Rice Cotton Sugarcane Maize

Tons / Hectare 1993-94 1944 1221 493 41.1 1297 1994-95 2154 1258 562 43 1334 1995-96 2081 1358 602 44.4 1713 1996-97 2118 1376 476 39.7 1784 1997-98 2327 1382 494 46.9 1799 1998-99 2226 1458 494 42.8 2001 1999-00 2667 1542 643 40.3 1986 2000-01 2465 1584 609 43.4 1883 2001-02 2392 1535 542 48.4 1890 2002-03 2518 1706 590 45.1 2105 2003-04 2500 1701 549 48 2385 2004-05 2724 1699 753 51.3 4073 2005-06 2588 1804 720 46.3 4289 2006-07 2775 1779 715 52.7 4390 2007-08 2438 1907 636 48.7 5040 2008-09 2694 1842 669 48.5 4916 2009-10 2592 1922 597 51.6 4954 2010-11 2846 1915 607 55.8 5444

2011-12 2737 1912 747 56 5699 2012-13 2855 2032 702 56 5705 2013-14 2861 1924 707 58 5833 2014-15 2763 1943 753 58 5975

Farm numbers, size and utilization in Pakistan

Private Number Total area Farm Size Area sown (Mha) Wheat Rice Cotton farms (ha) (millions) (Mha) (ha/farm) Total 5.07 19.20 3.78 8.097 2.406 2.666 <0.5 0.68 0.19 0.28 0.120 0.022 0.022 0.5- < 1.0 0.69 0.51 0.74 0.319 0.071 0.071 1.0- < 2.0 1.04 1.46 1.40 0.851 0.262 0.221 2.0- < 3.0 0.84 1.97 2.35 1.090 0.374 0.316 3.0- < 5.0 0.86 3.31 3.86 1.621 0.566 0.507 5.0- < 10 0.62 4.12 6.63 1.759 0.501 0.608 10- < 20 0.24 3.03 12.75 1.120 0.284 0.397 20- < 60 0.09 2.67 28.52 0.808 0.214 0.321 > 60 0.01 1.94 125.44 0.408 0.111 0.202

Punjab Agro-ecological zones (AEZ’s) – Estimated crop production, area and yields

Wheat Rice Sugar Cane Cotton Area Prod. Yield Area Pro Yield Are Prod. Yield Area Prod. (000 (000H (000 (Kg/ha (000 d. (Kg/h a (000 (Kg/ha (000 Tons) a) Tons) ) Ha) (00 a) (00 Tons ) Ha)

0 AEZ 0 ) Ha) Ton AEZ I 190.8 374.9 1964.6 s) 6. 164 27062. 91.6 359.8 1 7 AEZ 1858.8 3646.2 1961.6 130. 4578 35134. 1522. 6748. 3 II 3 3 4 AEZ 1260 2688.2 2133.5 302.2 423 1401. 248. 9914 39927. 250 864 3 III .6 7 5 AEZ 791 1496 1891.3 865 834 964.9 54. 2099 38302. 8 IV .6 9 AEZ 369 572 1550.1 15. 586 38552. 2 B I 6 AEZ 374.4 486 1298.1

B II AEZ 561.4 935 1665.5 30. 1005 33059. 154.2 549 4 C I 2 AEZ 171.8 365 2124.6 23. 801 34377. 32 110 3 D I 7 AEZ 93.3 193 2068.6 41.2 161

D III TOT AL/ 10756. 1167. 125 1183. 1914 35202. 2091. 8792. MEA 5670.5 1850.9 508. 3 2 8.2 3 7 4 3 2 N 4

T AEZ IA AEZ I = DG Khan Irrigated – Parts of Distt. DG Khan, Rajanpur, e Muzaffargarh, Layyah, RY Khan

AEZm II= Cotton Zone - Parts of Dsitt. RY Khan, B-Pur, M-garh, Multan, Vehari, Khanewal, p Sahiwal,B-Nagar, Okara AEZIIIe = Central mix - Parts of Dsitt. TT Singh, Jhang, Sargodha, Faisalabad, Okara, Kasur, Lahore,

r Sheikhupura, Gujrat, Gujranwala, Khanewal, Khu

AEZIVa = Rice Zone - Parts of Dsitt. Gujrat,Gujranwala, Sheikhupura, Sialkot, Lahore, Kasur, Okara , t and adjoing districts u AEZ BI = High Rainfall - Parts of Dsitt. Sialkot, Gujrat, Chakwal, Jhelum, Rawalpindi, Islamabad, r Attock e AEZ BII = Low Rainfall- Parts of Dsitt. Attock, Miawali, Khushab, Chakwal, Sargodha, Rawalpindi

AEZT CI = Irrigated Zone - Parts of Dsitt. Muzaffargarh, Layyah, Khakkar, Mianwali, Khushab,

h Sargodha, Jhang, Multan AEZ DI = Thal Arid Zone - Parts of Dsitt. Layyah, Bhakar, Jhang, Khushab

AEZ DIII Rud Kohi - Parts of Dsitt. DG Khan, Rajanpur =

T Thresholds and Average Crop Water Requirements

Source: Riaz (2001); Siddiqui, et al. (2012).

Riaz, A. (2001) Crop Management in Pakistan. Government of Punjab, Agriculture Department, 280p.

Siddiqui, R., G. Samad, M. Nasir, and H. H. Jalil (2012) The Impact of Climate Change on Major Agricultural Crops: Evidence from Punjab, Pakistan. Presented in 28th AGM and Conference, 13- 15 November

Descriptive statistics, 1989–2015.

Major Statistics Crops Mean Std. Dev. Min. Max. Skewness Kurtosis

Wheat 93.74 80.16 2.10 324.50 1.13 3.30 Variables

Cropping Area (hectare) Rice 10.63 12.04 0.00 43.70 1.07 2.87 Maize 15.89 16.70 0.90 52.20 0.99 2.48 Sugarcane 20.63 34.18 0.00 126.40 1.78 4.74 Wheat 210.21 209.57 2.90 901.70 1.53 4.58 Production (tons) Rice 17.21 18.13 0.00 83.40 1.06 3.41 Maize 27.44 27.07 0.80 137.10 1.54 5.67

Sugarcane 1018.16 1707.40 0.00 6403.80 1.75 4.64 Wheat 879.91 262.46 252.53 1912.22 0.53 3.82 Yield (kg/acre) Rice 737.29 237.73 303.52 1315.23 0.40 2.27 Maize 949.31 1038.17 287.11 9307.80 5.71 42.95 Sugarcane 18,284.91 3603.22 8498.42 29,454.20 0.11 3.14 Wheat 25.50 3.44 14.47 29.96 1.90 5.93 Maximum Rice 36.91 2.00 32.40 42.90 0.36 2.93 temperature ( C) Maize 32.39 3.46 24.95 38.67 0.04 2.12 Sugarcane 28.86 3.25 22.70 35.15 0.28 1.84 Wheat 10.85 3.11 1.37 15.64 1.62 5.10 Minimum Rice 24.84 1.71 19.68 29.16 0.34 3.38 temperature ( C) Maize 18.29 3.87 9.93 28.42 0.34 2.14 Sugarcane 14.81 3.17 8.86 21.48 0.09 2.10 Wheat 22.28 17.58 0.00 71.18 0.79 2.75 Rainfall (mm/year) Rice 70.89 60.02 0.00 322.58 1.31 4.58 Maize 33.56 21.80 3.58 112.98 1.08 3.76 Sugarcane 28.76 20.24 0.25 132.16 1.26 5.91 Wheat 57.43 6.71 36.17 70.20 0.74 3.40 Humidity (%) Rice 58.57 5.90 44.80 74.00 0.09 2.82 Maize 51.34 5.80 37.25 64.25 0.21 2.36 Sugarcane 60.35 5.87 43.55 73.43 0.52 2.89 Wheat 229.33 21.91 160.96 280.80 0.24 3.33 Sunshine (h/day) Rice 259.49 23.06 175.14 381.00 0.15 7.15 Maize 249.24 18.37 190.35 290.35 0.13 3.26 Sugarcane 233.13 24.12 176.38 290.11 0.37 2.47

Instrument for In-depth Interview

1. What is the present status of various kinds of forests in Pakistan? What kind of changes are going on in the ecosystem with particular reference to changes and challenges in the forests of Pakistan?

2. What are the overtime changes happening in the forests of the country due to anthropogenic activities? What kind of measures you suggest to avoid such impacts?

3. What is the general impact of climate change and climate variability on forests in Pakistan? Please suggest some measures.

4. Is there any typical effect of solar radiation on various categories of forest plants and trees? Kindly suggest some adaptation measures for avoiding such bad impacts.

5. What sort of GHG emissions and how the same are spoiling the forest canopies? What sort of policy measures are to be taken?

6. What is the impact of erratic pattern of rainfall/precipitation on various species of forests? What are the mitigation and adaptation practices can be followed?

7. Is there any clearly defined role of minimum and maximum temperature in the growth and development of forests plants and trees? Please give some input in avoiding these odd impacts.

8. What is lacking on the part of public policy in designing policies on environment and climate change? How appropriate policies can be designed for sustainable development?

9. What kind of research activities are required to grasp the full connotation of impact of climate change on forests?

10. Clearly define the role of all key stakeholders in developing strategies for climate friendly forest scenarios in various parts of Pakistan to materialize the broader dream of Green Pakistan.

List of In-depth Interviews

Sr. EXPERTS DESIGNATIONS No. 1 Dr. Sarwat Naz Mirza Vice Chancellor/Dean Faculty Forestry, Range Management and Wildlife, PMAS-Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan 2 Dr.Abdul Munaf Qaim khwnani Deputy Inspector General, Ministry of Climate Change, Islamabad 3 Dr. Muhammad Umar Deputy Inspector General, Ministry of Climate Change, Islamabad 4 Dr. Imtiaz Ahmad Qamar Director, Range Land Research Institute, National Agriculture Research Center Islamabad 5 Maqsood Ahmad Ex Director, Range Land Research Institute, National Agriculture Research Center, Islamabad 6 Saadat Ali Khan Conservator Forest ( Working Plan), Rawalpindi. 7 Khizar Hayat Minhas Chief Conservator Forest, Multan 8 Liaqat Ali Jaffari Conservator, Range Management Punjab 9 Dr. Ejaz Ahmad Senior Director, WWF Pakistan 10 Muhammad Ibrahim National Project Director, Green Pakistan Programme Ministry of Climate Change Pakistan 11 Liaqat Ali Sulehri Conservator, Forest Department, Bahawalpur