Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy

RESEARCH AND INFORMATION Research and Information Briefing Paper January 2019 Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy This is one in a series of briefing papers that has been produced by the Research and Information team. It is intended that these papers will be used by Council services and, where appropriate, our Community Planning partners to assist policy development and wider service delivery. Some papers, including this one, may be of interest to a wider audience.

This paper looks at Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy in Aberdeen City, up-dating the Briefing Paper on the same topic produced in January 2017. The data in this paper comes primarily from National Records of Scotland (NRS), the Scottish Public Health Observatory (ScotPHO) and the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This paper presents a brief overview of the estimated Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy at birth for males and females in Aberdeen City. It compares Aberdeen City to other local authority areas and to Scotland. It also looks at how Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy have changed over time as well as the relationship between these and deprivation. The paper also looks at Life Expectancy at birth for intermediate zones in Aberdeen City and gives information on Life Expectancy at age 65 years.

For more information on these issues, please contact: Research and Information Team Business Intelligence & Performance Management Commissioning Aberdeen City Council Marischal College Broad Street Aberdeen AB10 1AB

 03000 200291  [email protected]

These papers, and other statistical reports, can be found in the ‘Statistics and Information’ section of the Aberdeen City Council website https://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/services/strategy- performance-and-statistics/statistics-and-information

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Summary

• Estimated life expectancy (LE) at birth is generally higher in females than in males. • In 2015-17, estimated life expectancy at birth for females in Aberdeen City was 81.1 years and for males it was 76.9 years. • The estimated LE at birth for females is the same as that for Scotland (81.1 years), while for males it is slightly lower than for Scotland (77.0 years). • Life expectancy is lower in Aberdeen City than in most other local authorities, with male life expectancy ranking 21st and female life expectancy ranking 19th (out of 32 local authorities). • This year (i.e. between 2014-2016 and 2015-2017) is the first time since 2011-2013 that estimated life expectancy at birth in Aberdeen City has shown an increase, from 76.4 years to 76.9 years for males and from 80.8 years to 81.1 years for females. • Over the past 10 years, life expectancy has increased for both males and females. The increase has been higher for males (1.8 years) than females (0.9 years), resulting in a slight closing of the gap between male and female life expectancy from 5.0 years in 2005-2007 to 4.2 years in 2015- 2017. • Life expectancy is strongly associated with deprivation. In Aberdeen City, life expectancy at birth was 71.7 years for males in the 20% most deprived areas of the City compared to 81.4 years for males in the 20% least deprived areas. For females the respective figures were 77.3 years and 84.7 years. • Across the City (based on intermediate zones) life expectancy varies by 14.3 years for males and 12.5 years for females.

• While females generally have higher life expectancy than males, they also generally experience a longer period of ‘not healthy’ health than males. • In 2015-2017, males in Aberdeen had a life expectancy of 76.9 years and a healthy life expectancy of 61.5 years. This means that a male born in 2015-2017 could expect to spend 15.4 years in ‘not healthy’ health. • In 2015-2017, females in Aberdeen had a life expectancy of 81.1 years and a healthy life expectancy of 64.6 years. This means that a female born in 2015-2017 could expect to spend 16.4 years in ‘not healthy’ health. • Males in Aberdeen have a lower healthy life expectancy than males in Scotland (61.5 years compared to 62.3 years) while females in Aberdeen have a higher healthy life expectancy than those in Scotland (64.6 years compared to 62.6 years).

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1. Life Expectancy

Life Expectancy (LE) at birth is an estimate of the average number of years a new-born baby would survive if he/she experienced an area’s age specific mortality rates throughout his/her life. It provides a useful summary measure of mortality rates experienced across a population at a particular point in time. National Records of Scotland (NRS) produces life expectancy estimates for Scottish council areas. The estimates are based on the mortality probabilities indicated by the death records for the three years prior to the date of publication. The most recent estimates were published on 12th December 2018 (based on 2015-2017).

1.1. Life Expectancy at Birth In general, LE at birth is higher for women than for men. In Aberdeen City LE at birth is estimated to be 81.1 years for women and 76.9 years for men, i.e. a baby girl born in Aberdeen City in 2015-2017 could expect to live for 81.1 years while a baby boy born in Aberdeen City in the same period could expect to live for 76.9 years. The estimated LE at birth for females is the same as that for Scotland (81.1 years), while for males it is slightly lower than for Scotland (77.0 years). Table 1.1 presents estimated life expectancy at birth for males and females in Aberdeen City and Scotland.

Table 1.1: Estimated life expectancy at birth, males and females, Aberdeen City and Scotland, 2015-2017 Male Female

Life Lower Upper Life Lower Upper expectancy CI CI expectancy CI CI Years Years Years Years Years Years Aberdeen City 76.9 76.4 77.1 81.1 80.7 81.4

Scotland 77.0 77.0 77.2 81.1 81.1 81.2 Source: National Records of Scotland, Life Expectancy for Administrative areas within Scotland, 2015-2017, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/life-expectancy/life-expectancy-in-scottish- areas/life-expectancy-for-administrative-areas-within-scotland-2015-2017 CI = confidence interval (95%)

Note: It should be remembered that life expectancy is an estimate – and as such is subject to a margin of error. The accuracy of the results is indicated by calculating a 95% confidence interval (CI) – the true underlying life expectancy lies within its upper and lower limits with 95% probability. So, looking at lower and upper CI limits for females in Aberdeen City, true life expectancy for baby girls born in 2015-2017 lies between 80.7 years and 81.4 years.

Life expectancy estimates for different areas or different groups can be said to be statistically significantly different if their confidence intervals do not overlap. Therefore, looking at the above table, as the upper and lower CI limits for male and female life expectancy do not overlap, it can be said that female life expectancy is significantly higher than male life expectancy. Using the CIs to compare Aberdeen City and Scotland, it can be seen that while estimated life expectancy is lower in Aberdeen City than Scotland for both males and females, this difference is not statistically significant (i.e. the confidence intervals do overlap).

It is also worth noting that life expectancy results, particularly in smaller areas, can be affected by random variation in the annual number of deaths.

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1.2. Comparison with other local authorities

Males: LE at birth ranged from a low of 73.3 years in Glasgow City to a high of 80.5 years in East Renfrewshire – a difference of 7.2 years. At 76.4 years, Aberdeen City ranked 21st (out of 32) out of all local authorities in Scotland.

Females: LE at birth ranged from a low of 78.7 years in Glasgow City to a high of 83.7 years in East Renfrewshire – a difference of 5.0 years. At 81.1 years, Aberdeen City ranked 19th of all local authorities in Scotland.

Figure 1.1 shows LE at birth for males and females for all of Scotland’s local authority areas, highlighting the difference in LE at birth for males and females and the differences between council areas. Average LE estimates for Scotland are also included. The areas are ordered by female LE at birth.

Figure 1.1

86 Life expectancy at birth for males and females by local 84 authority area, Scotland, 2015-17 82 80 78

Years 76 74 72 70 68

Females Males

Source: National Records of Scotland, Life Expectancy for Administrative areas within Scotland, 2015-2017, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/life-expectancy/life-expectancy-in-scottish- areas/life-expectancy-for-administrative-areas-within-scotland-2015-2017

A full table detailing estimated LE at birth and their 95% Confidence Intervals for each local authority is given in Appendix 1.

1.3. Changes over time Figure 1.2 shows estimated LE at birth for males and females in Aberdeen City and Scotland over the period from 2005-2007 to 2015-2017.

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Figure 1.2 Life Expectancy At Birth For Males And Females, Aberdeen City And Scotland, 2005 -2007 To 2015- 2017 82 80 78 76

YEARS 74 72 70 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Males - Aberdeen Females - Aberdeen Males - Scotland Females - Scotland

Source: National Records of Scotland, Life expectancy for administrative areas within Scotland, Time series data, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/life-expectancy/life-expectancy-in-scottish- areas/time-series-data

While relatively stable in the last few years, over the 10-year period, life expectancy at birth has increased in all groups. For males, estimated life expectancy rose from 75.1 years to 76.9 years in Aberdeen City (an increase of 2.4% over the period) and from 74.8 years to 77.0 years in Scotland (an increase of 3.0%). For females the increase was less pronounced than for males, with estimated life expectancy increasing from 80.2 years to 81.1 years in Aberdeen City (1.2% increase) and from 79.6 years to 81.1 years in Scotland (1.8% increase). The lower rate of increase for females compared to males has resulted in a slight closing of the gap between male and female life expectancy at birth, from 5.0 years in 2005-2007 to 4.2 years in 2015-2017 for Aberdeen City and from 4.9 years in 2005-2007 to 4.1 years in 2015-2017 for Scotland as a whole.

At the start of the 10-year period, both male and female life expectancy at birth were slightly higher in Aberdeen City than in Scotland. However, in Aberdeen City estimates for LE at birth dropped slightly from their peak in 2011-2013, and since then have been lower than those for Scotland. This year (i.e. between 2014-2016 and 2015-2017) is the first time since 2011-2013 that estimated life expectancy in Aberdeen City has shown an increase, from 76.4 years to 76.9 years for males and from 80.8 years to 81.1 years for females.

Local authorities: Life expectancy at birth increased for both males and females in all local authorities in Scotland over the 10-year period from 2005-2007 to 2015-2017. In all local authorities with the exception of the Highlands, the increase was greater for males than for females.

The rates of increase (i.e. the percentage change over the period) varied by local authority. For males, rates of increase ranged from 0.5% in Dundee City to 5.6% in the Orkney Islands. At 2.4% Aberdeen City had the 7th lowest rate of increase. For females, rates of increase ranged from 0.2% in Orkney Islands to 3.0% in Na h-Eileanan Siar. At 1.1%, Aberdeen City had the 7th lowest rate of increase over the period.

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Changes in life expectancy between 1991-1993 and 2015-2017: Since 1991-1993, male life expectancy in Aberdeen has increased by 4.3 years (5.9%) and female life expectancy has increased by 3.1 years (3.9%). The rates of increase in Aberdeen were lower than those for Scotland (7.8% and 5.1% respectively) and amongst the lowest of all local authorities. As a result, male life expectancy dropped from 10th to 21st in local authority rankings for males in Aberdeen and from 11th to 19th for females. Full details of life expectancy for all local authorities, giving comparison between 1991-1993 and 2015-2017 are given in Appendices 2a (males) and 2b (females).

1.4. Life Expectancy by level of deprivation

In Scotland as a whole, life expectancy is strongly associated with level of deprivation. NRS have produced estimates of LE at birth for the period 2013-2017 by level of deprivation based on the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) 2016 quintiles.

In Aberdeen City there was a significant difference in estimated life expectancy by level of deprivation. Life expectancy for males in quintile 1 (most deprived) was 71.7 years compared to 81.4 years for males in quintile 5 (least deprived) – a difference of 9.7 years (compared to 9.4 years for Scotland). For females, the difference in estimated life expectancy was less marked, at 77.3 years for females in quintile 1 compared to 84.7 years for females in quintile 5 - a difference of 7.4 years (compared to 6.6 years for Scotland). See Table 1.2.

Table 1.2: Estimated life expectancy at birth in Aberdeen City for males and females, 2013- 2017, by deprivation (SIMD 2016) Aberdeen City Scotland Life 95% Life 95% Expectancy Confidence Expectancy Confidence at birth interval at birth interval

Years Years Years Years Overall 76.8 76.4 to 77.1 77.1 77.0 to 77.2 Quintile 1 (most 71.7 70.9 to 72.5 72.2 72.0 to 72.4 deprived) Quintile 2 74.7 73.9 to 75.5 75.3 75.1 to 75.5 Males Quintile 3 75.8 74.9 to 76.7 77.4 77.2 to 77.5 Quintile 4 81.0 80.2 to 81.8 79.3 79.2 to 79.5 Quintile 5 (least 81.4 80.6 to 82.1 81.6 81.5 to 81.8 deprived)

Overall 81.0 80.7 to 81.4 81.1 81.1 to 81.2 Quintile 1 (most 77.3 76.5 to 78.0 77.7 77.5 to 77.9 deprived) Quintile 2 79.4 78.6 to 80.2 79.8 79.6 to 79.9 Females Quintile 3 81.0 80.2 to 81.8 81.3 81.1 to 81.4 Quintile 4 83.0 82.2 to 83.7 82.8 82.6 to 82.9 Quintile 5 (least 84.7 84.0 to 85.4 84.3 84.2 to 84.4 deprived) Source: National Records of Scotland, Life Expectancy for Administrative Areas within Scotland 2015-17, Available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/life-expectancy/life-expectancy-in-scottish- areas/life-expectancy-for-administrative-areas-within-scotland-2015-2017

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Comparison with data from 2012-2016 shows that the gap in estimated life expectancy between most and least deprived quintiles in Aberdeen City has increased for both males and females, from 9.0 years to 9.7 years for males and from 6.4 years to 7.4 years for females.

1.5. Life Expectancy at birth by intermediate zone 2013-2017

Estimates of life expectancy by intermediate zone are available on ScotPHO. The most recent figures relate to data from 2013-2017 (5-year average).

For both males and females there are important differences in estimated life expectancy at birth depending on where you live in Aberdeen City. For males, estimated LE at birth ranges from a low of 69.4 years in Seaton to a high of 83.7 years in Braeside, Mannofield, Broomhill & Seafield North – a difference of 14.3 years. For females it ranges from a low of 74.2 years in Woodside to a high of 86.7 years in Braeside, Mannofield, Broomhill & Seafield East – a difference of 12.5 years.

Figure 1.3 shows estimated LE at birth by intermediate zones for males and females (ordered by female LE). Consistent with the pattern in Aberdeen City as a whole, in almost all intermediate zones, estimated LE at birth is higher for females than males – the only exception being Braeside, Mannofield, Broomhill & Seafield North where male life expectancy is slightly higher (by 0.3 years) than female life expectancy. However, the difference in male and female estimated life expectancy varies quite markedly between intermediate zones, ranging from a low of 0.3 years in Braeside, Mannofield, Broomhill & Seafield North to a to a high of 11 years in George Street. As a result, the ranking of intermediate zones (i.e. from low to high estimated LE) differs for males and females. Full details of estimated life expectancy, including 95% Confidence Intervals, for all intermediate zones in Aberdeen City are given in Appendix 3.

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Figure 1.3

Estimated life expectancy at birth for males and females, intermediate zones, Aberdeen City, 2013-2017

100 90 80 70 60 50

Years 40 30 20 10

Dyce

Hilton Culter

Seaton

Mastrick

Ashgrove

Denmore

Garthdee

Tillydrone

Torry Torry East

Woodside

Northfield

Kingswells

Stockethill

Hazlehead

Danestone

Torry Torry West

Midstocket

CoveSouth

CoveNorth

Summerhill

Rosemount

Sheddocksley

Old AberdeenOld

George Street George

Ferryhill South Ferryhill

Ferryhill North Ferryhill

Hanover South Hanover

Hanover North Hanover

Cummings Park Cummings

SouthBraeside,…

North Braeside,… North

OldmacharEast

West End SouthEnd West

West End North End West

OldmacharWest

Bucksburn South Bucksburn

Bucksburn North Bucksburn

Cults, Bieldside &… Bieldside Cults, &… Bieldside Cults,

Kincorth, Leggart Nigg… Leggart & Kincorth, Nigg… Leggart & Kincorth,

Heathryfold Middlefield & Heathryfold

East Braeside, Mannofield,… Braeside, East

City Centre West-Aberdeen… Centre City

Balgownie & & East Balgownie Donmouth

Froghall, Powis & Powis Sunnybank Froghall, Balgownie & & West Balgownie Donmouth

Females Males

Source: ScotPHO Profiles Tool, available at: https://scotland.shinyapps.io/ScotPHO_profiles_tool/ Note: Female LE is not available for Hanover North and Male LE is not available for West End North.

1.6. Estimated life expectancy at age 65 years, 2015-2017

NRS also produce estimates of life expectancy for 65 year-olds (i.e. how long a person aged 65 years could expect to live). Estimated life expectancy for 65 year-old men in Aberdeen City is 17.3 years, slightly lower than the average for Scotland of 17.4 years. Estimated life expectancy for 65 year-old women in Aberdeen City is 19.8 years – 2.5 years higher than the figure for men and 0.1 years higher than the average for Scotland of 19.7 years.

Comparison with local authorities: Estimated life expectancy at 65 years ranges from a low of 15.2 years for Glasgow City to a high of 19.5 years in the Orkney Islands for males, and from 18.1 years in Glasgow City to 21.1 years in East Renfrewshire for women. Aberdeen City ranks 24th (out of 32) for males and 18th (out of 32) for females. Figure 1.4 shows estimated life expectancy at 65 years for all local authorities in Scotland for men and women (ordered by female life expectancy). Appendix 4 gives figures for all local authorities.

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Figure 1.4

Estimated life expectancy at 65 years by local authority, Scotland, 2015-2017 25 20 15

Years 10 5 0

Females Males

1.7. Probability of reaching 90+ years

Another way to look at variation in life expectancy is to compare the probability of reaching old age. In Aberdeen City, one in 6.4 males born in 2015 to 2017 could expect to reach the age of 90 years (compared to one in 6.1 for Scotland). For females, this rises to one in 3.8 (same as Scotland). This figure varies among council areas from one in 3 females in East Renfrewshire to one in 10.5 males in Glasgow City. (Source NRS, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/life-expectancy-areas-in-scotland/15-17/life- expectancy-15-17-publication.pdf).

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2. Healthy Life Expectancy

While Life Expectancy (LE) counts total years of expected life regardless of level of health, Healthy Life Expectancy (HLE) represents the number of years that an individual can expect to live in good health. HLE is calculated by combining Life Expectancy and a measure of ‘healthy health’, such as self-assessed general health (using survey or census data). HLE provides a single summary measure of a population’s health which takes account of the population’s health status and death rates at different ages. It can be used to look at health trends over time and may be helpful in resource allocation as well as planning of health and other services.

Information on HLE at local authority level is available from two sources. The first is the Scottish Public Health Observatory (ScotPHO) and the second is the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

2.1. ScotPHO data

While HLE at a national level is published yearly using self-assessed health measures from household surveys (the Scottish Household Survey from 2009), these surveys are not robust enough to provide HLE estimates at smaller levels. Information on HLE at local authority level uses self-assessed health from the Census and is therefore available on a much less frequent basis. In December 2015 ScotPHO published HLE estimates at local authority level using self- assessed health from the 2011 Census. These are for the 5-year period 2009-2013 and are calculated separately for males and females. (Note: HLE is generally presented in relation to LE. The LE estimates given below cover a different time period to those in the previous section and therefore will not match).

2.1.1. Healthy Life Expectancy at birth

Table 2.1 gives Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy for Aberdeen City and Scotland. For the period 2009-2013, males in Aberdeen City had a LE at birth of 76.9 years and a HLE of 65.0 years, giving an expected period of ‘not healthy’ health of 11.9 years. Another way of saying this is the males born in Aberdeen in 2009-2013 could expect to live 84.5% of their lives in ‘healthy’ health. For women in Aberdeen City, life expectancy at birth was 81.2 years and healthy life expectancy was 67.4 years, giving an expected period of ‘not healthy’ health of 13.8 years, i.e. they could expect to live 83.0% of their lives in ‘healthy’ health. So, while women have a higher life expectancy, they also experience a longer time in ‘not healthy’ health than men. This pattern is consistent with Scotland as a whole – although both LE and HLE were slightly higher in Aberdeen City than in Scotland for both males and females. In Scotland men have an expected period of ‘not healthy’ health of 13.5 years. For women the figure is 15.6 years.

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Table 2.1: Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy at birth in years, males and females, Aberdeen City and Scotland, 5-year period 2009-2013 Life expectancy at Healthy life expectancy Expected birth at birth Percentage of period in 'not life in ‘healthy’ 95% 95% healthy' health health Years Confidence Years Confidence (years) Intervals Intervals

Aberdeen City Male 76.9 76.5 to 77.2 65.0 64.8 to 65.1 11.9 84.5% Female 81.2 80.9 to 81.6 67.4 67.3 to 67.6 13.8 83.0%

Scotland Male 76.6 76.5 to 76.7 63.1 63.1 to 63.2 13.5 82.4% Female 80.8 80.8 to 80.9 65.3 65.2 to 65.3 15.6 80.8% Source: ScotPHO, Available at: http://www.scotpho.org.uk/population-dynamics/healthy-life-expectancy/data/local-authorities

2.1.2. Comparison with other local authorities

Males: LE and HLE levels vary considerably across local authority areas. LE at birth is highest in East Dunbartonshire (80.3 years) and lowest in Glasgow City (72.6 years). Similarly, HLE at birth ranges from a low of 55.9 years in Glasgow City to a high of 68.3 years in East Dunbartonshire. This means that a baby boy born in Glasgow during 2009-2013 would be expected to live in a healthy state for 12.4 years less than a baby boy born during the same period in East Dunbartonshire.

The local authority area with the shortest expected period of ‘not healthy’ health for men is Aberdeenshire at 10.8 years, with men in Glasgow expected to experience the longest period of ‘not healthy’ health at 16.7 years.

Figure 2.1 shows LE and HLE at birth by local authority area for males (including expected period of ‘not healthy’ health – left-hand scale). As can be seen from the chart, there is greater variation across local authority areas by HLE than LE. Looking only at HLE, Aberdeen City ranks slightly above the mid-point (15th) when compared to other local authority areas. Aberdeenshire, along with Perth and Kinross and the Orkney Islands, ranks second highest (68.1 years).

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Figure 2.1

Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy at birth, and expected period of not healthy health, local authorities, Scotland, 2009-2013 (males) 90 22

80 17

70 12 60 7

50 LE and (years)and HLELE

2 (years) health not healthy 40

30 -3

Fife

Angus

Falkirk

Moray

Stirling

Highland

Eilean Eilean Siar

Inverclyde

SCOTLAND

Midlothian

Dundee Dundee City Lothian East

Glasgow City Glasgow

East Ayrshire East

Argyll Bute & Argyll

West Lothian West

Renfrewshire

Aberdeen City Aberdeen

Edinburgh City Edinburgh

Orkney Islands Orkney

SouthAyrshire

North Ayrshire North

Aberdeenshire

Perth & Kinross Perth

Shetland Islands Shetland

Scottish Scottish Borders

SouthLanarkshire

North Lanarkshire North

East Renfrewshire East

Clackmannanshire

East Dunbartonshire East

Dumfries & Galloway & Dumfries West Dunbartonshire West

LE HLE Expected period in 'not healthy' health

Source: ScotPHO, Available at: http://www.scotpho.org.uk/population-dynamics/healthy-life-expectancy/data/local-authorities

Females: The pattern for females was similar to that for males, although estimates of LE and HLE were consistently higher for women than for men in each of the local authority areas. LE at birth ranged from a low of 78.4 years in Glasgow City to a high of 83.4 years in East Dunbartonshire. Glasgow City was also the local authority area with the lowest HLE at birth at 58.5 years. However, the highest HLE for women was in the Orkney Islands at 71.0 years. This means that a baby girl born in Glasgow during 2009-2013 could be expected to live in a healthy state for 12.5 years less than a baby girl born in Orkney.

Orkney was the local authority with the shortest expected period in ‘not healthy’ health at 11.0 years, while women in Glasgow City had the longest expected period in ‘not healthy’ health at 20.0 years.

Figure 2.2 shows LE and HLE at birth by local authority area for females. Again, there seems to be slightly more variation in HLE than LE. Looking only at HLE, ranking for females in Aberdeen City is similar to males - positioned slightly above the mid-point (14th highest) when compared to other local authority areas. Aberdeenshire ranked third highest (69.7 years) among all local authority areas.

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Figure 2.2 Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy at birth, and expected period of not healthy health, local authorities, Scotland, 2009-2013 (females) 90 22

80 17 70 12 60 7 50

LE and (years)and HLELE 40 2 not healthy health (years) health not healthy

30 -3

Fife

Angus

Falkirk

Moray

Stirling

Highland

Eilean Eilean Siar

Inverclyde

SCOTLAND

Midlothian

East Lothian East

Dundee Dundee City

Glasgow City Glasgow

East Ayrshire East

Argyll Bute & Argyll

West Lothian West

Renfrewshire

Aberdeen City Aberdeen

Edinburgh City Edinburgh

Orkney Islands Orkney

SouthAyrshire

North Ayrshire North

Aberdeenshire

Perth & Kinross Perth

Shetland Islands Shetland

Scottish Scottish Borders

SouthLanarkshire

North Lanarkshire North

East Renfrewshire East

Clackmannanshire

East Dunbartonshire East

Dumfries & Galloway & Dumfries West Dunbartonshire West

LE HLE Expected period in 'not healthy' health

Source: ScotPHO, Available at: http://www.scotpho.org.uk/population-dynamics/healthy-life-expectancy/data/local-authorities

2.2. ONS data

Rather than Census data, information on self-assessed health comes from the Annual Population Survey. While not likely to be as robust as information from the Census, it does mean that information on healthy life expectancy at local authority level is available on a more frequent basis. Data is available for 2013-15 and 2014-16, with the most recent data covering 2015-2017. (Note: the life expectancy figures here do match those from NRS presented earlier in this paper.)

2.2.1. Healthy life expectancy at birth

Males: In 2015-2017, males in Aberdeen City had an estimated life expectancy at birth of 76.9 years and a healthy life expectancy of 61.5 years, giving an expected period of ‘not healthy’ health of 15.4 years. This means that a baby boy born in 2015-2017 could expect to live 79.9% of his life in healthy health. Both LE and HLE are lower in Aberdeen than in Scotland (respective figures of 77.0 years and 62.3 years) meaning that males in Aberdeen could expect to live a smaller proportion of their lives in healthy health than those in Scotland (80.9%).

Females: In 2015-2017, females in Aberdeen City had an estimated life expectancy at birth of 81.1 years and a healthy life expectancy of 64.6 years, giving an expected period of ‘not healthy’ health of 16.5 years. This means that a baby girl born in 2015-2017 could expect to live 79.8% of their life in healthy health. LE in Aberdeen is the same as Scotland (81.1 years), and HLE is higher in Aberdeen than Scotland (62.6 years), meaning that females in Aberdeen could expect to live a larger proportion of their lives in healthy health than those in Scotland (77.3%).

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Table 2.2 gives LE and HLE at birth (including 95% confidence intervals) for males and females in Aberdeen City and Scotland for 2015-2017.

Table 2.2: Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy at birth, males and females, Aberdeen City and Scotland, 2015-2017 Life expectancy at Healthy life expectancy Expected birth at birth Percentage of period in 'not life in ‘healthy’ 95% 95% healthy' health health Years Confidence Years Confidence (years) Intervals Intervals

Aberdeen City Male 76.9 76.4 to 77.4 61.5 59.4 to 63.6 15.4 79.9% Female 81.1 80.6 to 81.5 64.6 62.4 to 66.8 16.5 79.8%

Scotland Male 77.0 76.9 to 77.1 62.3 61.9 to 62.7 14.7 80.9% Female 81.1 81.0 to 81.2 62.6 62.2 to 63.1 18.5 77.3% Source: Office for National Statistics, Health State Life Expectancies, UK: 2015 to 2017, available at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/bulletins/healthstateli feexpectanciesuk/2015to2017

2.2.2. Comparison with other local authorities

Males: HLE ranges from a low of 56.0 years in North Ayrshire to a high of 68.9 years in East Dunbartonshire. Males from North Ayrshire can expect to spend the longest time in ‘not healthy’ health (20 years) while males from Shetland can expect to spend the shortest time in ‘not healthy’ health (10.2 years). At 61.5 years, Aberdeen City ranks 21st out of all local authorities.

Females: HLE ranges from a low of 57.1 years in North Ayrshire to a high of 75.0 years in Orkney Islands. Females from North Ayrshire can expect to spend the longest period in ‘not healthy’ health (23 years) while females from the Orkney Islands can expect to spend the shortest period in ‘not healthy’ health (6.7 years). At 64.6 years, Aberdeen City ranks 10th out of all local authorities.

2.2.3. Changes over time Information on LE and HLE is available for three periods – 2013-15, 2014-16 and 2015-17. Tables 2.3 (males) and 2.4 (females) show LE, HLE, years in ‘not healthy’ health and percentage of life in ‘healthy’ health for Aberdeen City and Scotland over these periods.

Table 2.3: Life expectancy, healthy life expectancy and percentage of life in ‘healthy’ health, Aberdeen City and Scotland, 2013-15, 2014-16 and 2015-17 (Males) Aberdeen City Scotland Healthy Years in Healthy Years in Life % life in Life % life in Life ‘not Life ‘not Expectancy ‘healthy’ Expectancy ‘healthy’ Expectancy healthy’ Expectancy healthy’ (years) health (years) health (years) health (years) health 2013-15 76.6 64.0 12.6 83.6% 77.1 61.8 15.3 80.2% 2014-16 76.4 62.8 13.6 82.2% 77.1 62.2 14.9 80.7% 2015-17 76.9 61.5 15.4 79.9% 77.0 62.3 14.7 80.9%

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Source: Office for National Statistics, Health and Life Expectancies, available at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies

Table 2.4: Life expectancy, healthy life expectancy and percentage of life in ‘healthy’ health, Aberdeen City and Scotland, 2013-15, 2014-16 and 2015-17 (Females) Aberdeen City Scotland Healthy Years in Healthy Years in Life % life in Life % life in Life ‘not Life ‘not Expectancy ‘healthy’ Expectancy ‘healthy’ Expectancy healthy’ Expectancy healthy’ (years) health (years) health (years) health (years) health 2013-15 80.9 68.2 12.7 84.3% 81.1 62.7 18.4 77.3% 2014-16 80.8 66.3 14.5 82.0% 81.1 63.3 17.8 78.0% 2015-17 81.1 64.6 16.4 79.8% 81.1 62.6 18.4 77.3% Source: Office for National Statistics, Health and Life Expectancies, available at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies

While life expectancy at birth has remained relatively stable for both males and females, in Aberdeen City (although not in Scotland) healthy life expectancy has decreased. For males, HLE decreased from 64.0 years in 2013-15 to 61.5 years in 2015-17 and for females HLE decreased from 68.2 years in 2013-15 to 64.6 years in 2015-17. This means that for both males and females, the period of time in ‘not healthy’ health has increased and the proportion of life that could be expected to be spent in ‘healthy’ health has decreased. Figure 2.3 shows the proportion of life in ‘healthy’ health for males and females for Aberdeen and Scotland for 2013-15 to 2015-17.

Figure 2.3

Percentage of life expected to be in 'healthy' health, Aberdeen City and Scotland, 2013-15 to 2015-17

88.0% 84% 81% 84% 82% 82% 81% 83.0% 80% 80% 80% 77% 78% 77% 78.0%

73.0%

68.0%

63.0%

58.0% Aberdeen Males Scotland Males Aberdeen Females Scotland Females

2013-15 2014-16 2015-17

Source: Office for National Statistics, Health and Life Expectancies, available at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies

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2.3. Healthy life expectancy by deprivation (SIMD)

While there is no data on HLE by deprivation at local authority level, estimates of LE and HLE at birth by deprivation (SIMD quintiles) are available for Scotland. The most robust of these is for the 5-year period 2009-2013 which is based on self-assessed health from 2011 Census. Males: Healthy life expectancy decreased with increasing deprivation. Males in the least deprived quintile had a HLE of 71.5 years while males in the most deprived quintile hade a HLE of 53.4 years – a difference of 18.1 years. The expected period of ‘not healthy’ health increased with increasing deprivation, ranging from 9.9 years in the least deprived quintile to 17.7 years in the most deprived quintile. Another way of saying this is that a male in the least deprived quintile could expect to live 87.8% of his life in ‘healthy’ health compared to a male in the most deprived quintile who could expect to live 75.1% in ‘healthy’ health. Figure 2.4 Male Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy at birth by deprivation quintile in Scotland, 5-year period 2009-2013

79.4 81.4 90 74.9 77.2 71.1 80 70 60 50 40 64.1 68.0 71.5 53.4 59.6 30 20 HLE or (Years) LE 10 0 SIMD 1 (most SIMD 2 SIMD 3 SIMD 4 SIMD 5 (least deprived) deprived)

LE HLE

Source: ScotPHO, Available at: http://www.scotpho.org.uk/population-dynamics/healthy-life-expectancy/data/deprivation- quintiles

Females: as with males, HLE for females also decreased with increasing deprivation (Figure 2.5). Women in the least deprived quintile had a HLE of 72.9 years compared to 56.1 years for a woman in the most deprived quintile – a difference of 16.8 years. The length of time a woman could expect to spend in ‘not healthy’ health ranged from 11.3 years for a woman in the least deprived quintile to 21.0 years in the most deprived quintile. Another way of saying this is that a woman in the least deprived quintile could expect to live 86.7% of her life in ‘healthy’ health compared to a woman in the most deprived quintile who could expect to live 72.8% in ‘healthy’ health.

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Figure 2.5 Female Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy at birth by deprivation quintile in Scotland, 5-year period 2009-2013

81.3 82.6 84.1 90 77.1 79.5 80 70 60 50 40 66.2 69.7 72.9 56.1 61.7 30

20 HLE or (years) LE 10 0 SIMD 1 (most SIMD 2 SIMD 3 SIMD 4 SIMD 5 (least deprived) deprived)

LE HLE

Source: ScotPHO, Available at: http://www.scotpho.org.uk/population-dynamics/healthy-life-expectancy/data/deprivation- quintiles

2.3.1. Changes over time

Time series data on HLE by deprivation for Scotland is also available. However, this uses self- assessed health from the Scottish Household Survey, so is less robust than self-assessed health data from the Census. This data covers the period 2009-10 to 2015-16. Males: Based on this data, between 2009-10 and 2015-16, HLE for males decreased by 0.1 year (from 59.8 years to 59.7 years) for Scotland as a whole. There were, however, differences by deprivation. The greatest increase in HLE was in SIMD 4 (60-80% most deprived) where HLE increased by 2.0 years. The largest decrease was in SIMD 1 (20% most deprived) where HLE decreased by 1.8 years. Over the period, the gap in HLE between most and least deprived has increased from 18.5 years in 2009-10 to 20.3 years in 2015-16. Figure 2.6

Males: Change in healthy life expectancy by deprivation (SIMD), Scotland, 2009-10 to 2015-16

2.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.1

0.0 Years -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -1.8 -2.0 SCOTLAND SIMD 1 (most SIMD 2 SIMD 3 SIMD 4 SIMD 5 (least deprived) deprived)

Source: ScotPHO, Available at: http://www.scotpho.org.uk/population-dynamics/healthy-life-expectancy/data/deprivation- quintiles

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Females: In contrast with males, HLE for females in Scotland increased over the period (from 62.1 years to 62.5 years). Again, however, there were differences by SIMD quintile. In SIMD quintiles 4 and 5, HLE increased by 1.6 years, while in SIMD 2 and 3 it decreased by 0.1 years. HLE increased for those in SIMD 1 (20% most deprived) – going up by 0.4 years. Despite this, the gap between HLE for those in the most and least deprived quintiles increased over the period, from 18.0 years in 2009-10 to 19.1 years in 2015-16. Figure 2.7

Females: change in healthy life expectancy by deprivation (SIMD), Scotland, 2009-10 to 2015-16

1.6 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8

0.5 0.4 0.6 Years 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 SCOTLAND SIMD 1 (most SIMD 2 SIMD 3 SIMD 4 SIMD 5 (least deprived) deprived) Axis Title

Source: ScotPHO, Available at: http://www.scotpho.org.uk/population-dynamics/healthy-life-expectancy/data/deprivation- quintiles

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3. Summary and conclusion

In Scotland (as in Western Europe), women generally outlive men by several years. In Aberdeen City, estimated life expectancy for a baby boy born in 2015-2017 was 76.9 years and for a baby girl it was 81.1 years. Although estimated LE at birth has stalled in the last few years, previously it experienced a period of growth for both males and females. This increase was higher in males than females, with the result that the gap in LE at birth between males and females has narrowed. This pattern is consistent with Scotland as a whole. An issue of note, however, is that the rate of growth in LE was lower in Aberdeen City than in most local authority areas.

As well as having a higher LE than males, females generally also have a higher healthy life expectancy. In Aberdeen City, HLE at birth for a baby boy born in 2015-2017 was 61.5 years and for a baby girl born in the same period it was 64.6 years. However, while females have a higher HLE than males, they also have a longer period of ‘not healthy’ health than men. On average, a man in Aberdeen City can expect to have 15.4 years of ‘not healthy’ health, while a woman can expect 16.4 years of ‘not healthy’ health.

However, the strong association between both LE and HLE and deprivation means that it is likely that both LE and HLE will differ substantially for men and women living in different parts of Aberdeen City. Those living in more deprived areas are likely to have not only a lower LE at birth, but also a longer period of ‘not healthy’ health than those living in the less deprived areas. If consistent with Scottish rates, men and women in the most deprived areas of the city could expect to live approximately a quarter of their lives in ‘not healthy’ health – double the period of those in the least deprived areas of the city.

Time spent in ‘not healthy’ health will tend to occur towards the end of life, although some people will experience ‘not healthy’ health in earlier years. While it is important to improve LE at birth, increasing HLE and reducing the time spent in ‘not healthy’ health is also important – not only for individual health, but also in terms of use of healthcare and other resources. Understanding patterns of LE and HLE can be useful in planning resource allocation for health and other services.

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Appendix 1: Estimated life expectancy at birth for males and females by local authority area, Scotland, 2015-2017 Males Females Life Life Lower CI Upper CI Lower CI Upper CI expectancy expectancy Years Years Years Years Years Years Aberdeen City 76.90 76.44 77.36 81.05 80.61 81.49 Aberdeenshire 79.14 78.74 79.54 82.57 82.20 82.94 Angus 78.16 77.53 78.79 81.63 81.02 82.25 Argyll and Bute 77.36 76.65 78.08 82.24 81.60 82.88 City of Edinburgh 77.97 77.64 78.30 82.33 82.04 82.62 Clackmannanshire 76.67 75.62 77.73 80.20 79.35 81.05 Dumfries and Galloway 77.85 77.26 78.44 81.77 81.24 82.29 Dundee City 73.94 73.31 74.58 79.36 78.77 79.94 East Ayrshire 76.42 75.79 77.05 79.96 79.41 80.51 East Dunbartonshire 80.08 79.42 80.73 83.33 82.77 83.90 East Lothian 78.28 77.58 78.98 82.52 81.95 83.08 East Renfrewshire 80.50 79.82 81.18 83.75 83.16 84.34 Falkirk 77.19 76.64 77.74 80.51 80.00 81.03 Fife 77.19 76.82 77.56 80.81 80.47 81.15 Glasgow City 73.35 73.06 73.63 78.73 78.45 79.00 Highland 77.76 77.30 78.23 82.60 82.18 83.01 Inverclyde 75.16 74.41 75.91 79.68 78.95 80.42 Midlothian 77.88 77.18 78.58 81.63 81.00 82.26 Moray 78.69 78.00 79.38 81.93 81.27 82.59 Na h-Eileanan Siar 76.81 75.39 78.23 82.77 81.69 83.86 North Ayrshire 76.06 75.43 76.68 80.16 79.59 80.74 North Lanarkshire 75.29 74.91 75.66 79.42 79.08 79.76 Orkney Islands 79.52 78.03 81.01 81.69 80.30 83.08 Perth and Kinross 79.33 78.74 79.93 82.46 81.92 83.00 Renfrewshire 76.17 75.67 76.68 80.22 79.75 80.69 Scottish Borders 78.95 78.31 79.59 82.36 81.77 82.94 Shetland Islands 78.29 76.98 79.60 83.19 82.11 84.26 South Ayrshire 77.18 76.48 77.89 81.14 80.50 81.78 South Lanarkshire 76.80 76.41 77.18 80.70 80.36 81.04 Stirling 78.83 78.13 79.53 82.57 81.93 83.20 West Dunbartonshire 75.04 74.29 75.80 79.09 78.41 79.77 West Lothian 78.08 77.57 78.58 80.97 80.49 81.44 Scotland 77.02 76.93 77.12 81.08 80.99 81.16 Source: National Records Scotland, Life Expectancy for Administrative Areas within Scotland, Time Series Data, Available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/life-expectancy/life-expectancy-in-scottish-areas/time- series-data CI = 95% Confidence Interval

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Appendix 2a: Estimated life expectancy at birth1 in Scotland 2015-2017, by local authority area and comparisons with 1991-1993 and 2012-2016 (males)

Change Change Change Change 2015- 2014- 1991- 2015- 2014- 1991- over 1 over 24 over 1 over 24 2017 2016 1993 2017 2016 1993 year years year years Years2 Years2 Years2 Rank3 Rank3 Rank3 (Years) (Years) (%) (%)

Aberdeen City 76.9 76.4 72.6 21 25 10 0.5 1.8 0.6% 5.9% Aberdeenshire 79.1 79.2 73.8 5 5 3 -0.1 1.6 -0.1% 7.2% Angus 78.2 78.5 73.4 11 9 5 -0.3 2.1 -0.4% 6.5% Argyll and Bute 77.4 77.4 71.9 17 19 16 0.0 1.4 0.0% 7.6% City of Edinburgh 78.0 78.0 71.7 13 12 18 0.0 2.1 0.0% 8.7% Clackmannanshire 76.7 76.7 71.5 24 22 22 -0.1 2.6 -0.1% 7.2% Dumfries and Galloway 77.9 77.8 72.5 15 15 13 0.0 1.7 0.0% 7.4% Dundee City 73.9 74.5 71.1 31 31 26 -0.6 0.4 -0.7% 4.1% East Ayrshire 76.4 76.5 71.5 25 24 23 0.0 2.4 -0.1% 6.9% East Dunbartonshire 80.1 80.1 74.0 2 3 2 0.0 2.1 0.0% 8.2% East Lothian 78.3 78.3 73.2 10 11 6 0.0 2.1 0.0% 7.0% East Renfrewshire 80.5 80.1 74.6 1 2 1 0.4 3.1 0.5% 7.8% Falkirk 77.2 77.3 71.8 18 20 17 -0.1 2.3 -0.1% 7.5% Fife 77.2 77.6 72.5 19 16 12 -0.4 1.4 -0.6% 6.4% Glasgow City 73.3 73.4 68.2 32 32 32 0.0 2.6 0.0% 7.5% Highland 77.8 77.9 71.5 16 13 21 -0.2 1.8 -0.2% 8.7% Inverclyde 75.2 75.6 69.6 29 28 30 -0.5 2.6 -0.6% 8.0% Midlothian 77.9 77.9 72.6 14 14 11 0.0 1.9 0.0% 7.3% Moray 78.7 78.7 72.9 8 6 8 0.0 2.7 0.0% 8.0% Na h-Eileanan Siar 76.8 76.6 70.6 22 23 27 0.2 3.6 0.2% 8.8% North Ayrshire 76.1 75.9 71.1 27 27 25 0.1 2.2 0.2% 7.0% North Lanarkshire 75.3 75.4 70.2 28 29 29 -0.1 2.5 -0.1% 7.2% Orkney Islands 79.5 80.3 73.1 3 1 7 -0.8 4.2 -1.0% 8.8% Perth and Kinross 79.3 79.9 72.7 4 4 9 -0.6 2.6 -0.7% 9.1% Renfrewshire 76.2 76.4 70.5 26 26 28 -0.2 2.5 -0.3% 8.0% Scottish Borders 79.0 78.6 73.4 6 8 4 0.3 2.3 0.4% 7.5% Shetland Islands 78.3 77.6 72.1 9 17 14 0.7 2.6 0.9% 8.6% South Ayrshire 77.2 77.5 72.0 20 18 15 -0.4 1.6 -0.5% 7.2% South Lanarkshire 76.8 76.8 71.6 23 21 20 0.0 2.5 0.0% 7.2% Stirling 78.8 78.7 71.7 7 7 19 0.2 1.9 0.2% 10.0% West Dunbartonshire 75.0 74.7 69.5 30 30 31 0.3 3.1 0.4% 8.0% West Lothian 78.1 78.3 71.3 12 10 24 -0.2 2.7 -0.3% 9.4% Scotland 77.0 77.1 71.5 - - - -0.1 2.3 -0.1% 7.8% Source: National Records Scotland, Life Expectancy for Administrative Areas within Scotland 2015-17, Available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/life-expectancy/life-expectancy-in-scottish-areas/life- expectancy-for-administrative-areas-within-scotland-2015-2017 1The estimates are based on mortality probabilities indicated by the death records for the 3 years of the time period. 2The results may vary from year to year, particularly those based on small populations. 3Rank out of 32 local authority areas (high to low).

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Appendix 2b: Estimated life expectancy at birth1 in Scotland 2015-2017, by local authority area and comparisons with 1991-1993 and 2014-2016 (females)

Aberdeen City 81.1 80.8 78.0 19 19 11 0.2 3.1 0.3% 3.9% Aberdeenshire 82.6 82.4 78.4 6 10 7 0.1 4.1 0.1% 5.3% Angus 81.6 81.8 77.7 17 16 14 -0.1 3.9 -0.2% 5.0% Argyll and Bute 82.2 82.5 77.6 12 9 16 -0.2 4.6 -0.3% 6.0% City of Edinburgh 82.3 82.2 77.9 11 12 13 0.1 4.5 0.1% 5.7% Clackmannanshire 80.2 80.6 77.5 25 24 17 -0.4 2.7 -0.5% 3.4% Dumfries and Galloway 81.8 81.8 77.1 14 15 22 -0.1 4.7 -0.1% 6.0% Dundee City 79.4 79.6 76.7 30 29 27 -0.3 2.6 -0.3% 3.4% East Ayrshire 80.0 79.8 76.7 27 28 28 0.1 3.3 0.2% 4.3% East Dunbartonshire 83.3 83.5 78.8 2 2 3 -0.1 4.5 -0.2% 5.7% East Lothian 82.5 82.7 78.8 8 6 2 -0.2 3.7 -0.2% 4.7% East Renfrewshire 83.7 83.5 79.2 1 1 1 0.2 4.6 0.2% 5.8% Falkirk 80.5 80.6 77.1 23 23 21 -0.1 3.4 -0.1% 4.4% Fife 80.8 81.2 77.4 21 18 19 -0.4 3.4 -0.5% 4.4% Glasgow City 78.7 78.9 75.0 32 31 32 -0.2 3.8 -0.3% 5.0% Highland 82.6 82.9 78.3 5 3 9 -0.3 4.3 -0.3% 5.5% Inverclyde 79.7 80.1 75.4 28 27 31 -0.4 4.3 -0.5% 5.7% Midlothian 81.6 81.4 77.4 16 17 20 0.2 4.3 0.3% 5.5% Moray 81.9 82.1 78.6 13 13 5 -0.2 3.3 -0.3% 4.2% Na h-Eileanan Siar 82.8 82.7 78.8 4 5 4 0.1 4.0 0.1% 5.1% North Ayrshire 80.2 80.5 76.4 26 25 29 -0.4 3.7 -0.4% 4.9% North Lanarkshire 79.4 79.6 75.8 29 30 30 -0.2 3.6 -0.2% 4.8% Orkney Islands 81.7 82.7 78.1 15 4 10 -1.0 3.5 -1.2% 4.5% Perth and Kinross 82.5 82.6 77.9 9 8 12 -0.1 4.5 -0.2% 5.8% Renfrewshire 80.2 80.2 76.9 24 26 24 0.0 3.3 0.1% 4.3% Scottish Borders 82.4 82.6 78.6 10 7 6 -0.2 3.8 -0.3% 4.8% Shetland Islands 83.2 82.0 78.4 3 14 8 1.2 4.8 1.4% 6.2% South Ayrshire 81.1 80.8 77.5 18 21 18 0.4 3.7 0.5% 4.7% South Lanarkshire 80.7 80.7 76.7 22 22 26 0.0 4.0 0.0% 5.2% Stirling 82.6 82.3 77.7 7 11 15 0.3 4.9 0.4% 6.3% West Dunbartonshire 79.1 78.8 77.0 31 32 23 0.2 2.0 0.3% 2.7% West Lothian 81.0 80.8 76.9 20 20 25 0.2 4.1 0.2% 5.3% Scotland 81.1 81.1 77.1 - - - -0.1 4.0 -0.1% 5.1% Source: National Records Scotland, Life Expectancy for Administrative Areas within Scotland 2015-17, Available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/life-expectancy/life-expectancy-in-scottish-areas/life- expectancy-for-administrative-areas-within-scotland-2015-2017 1The estimates are based on mortality probabilities indicated by the death records for the 3 years of the time period. 2The results may vary from year to year, particularly those based on small populations. 3Rank out of 32 local authority areas (high to low).

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Appendix 3: Life expectancy at birth by intermediate zone, males and females, Aberdeen City, 2013-2017 Males Females Life Life Lower CI Upper CI Lower CI Upper CI expectancy expectancy Years Years Years Years Years Years Ashgrove 72.3 69.8 74.8 80.8 80.4 81.3 Balgownie & Donmouth East 79.2 75.8 82.6 77.5 74.9 80 Balgownie & Donmouth West 79.3 76.5 82 84.4 80.9 87.9 Braeside, Mannofield, Broomhill & Seafield East 79.9 77.2 82.6 81.5 79.4 83.5 Braeside, Mannofield, Broomhill & Seafield North 83.7 82.1 85.3 86.7 84.8 88.5 Braeside, Mannofield, Broomhill & Seafield South 82.3 80 84.6 83.4 81.6 85.2 Bucksburn North 79.7 77.8 81.6 85.2 83.1 87.4 Bucksburn South 78.9 76.4 81.3 81.3 78.9 83.7 City Centre West-Aberdeen City 73.4 70.7 76.2 81.4 78.8 84 Cove North 78 75.8 80.1 82.6 78.2 87 Cove South 82.9 79.4 86.5 78.5 76.5 80.5 Culter 78.8 76.7 81 83.8 81.4 86.2 Cults, Bieldside & Milltimber East 83 81.2 84.8 84.9 83 86.9 Cults, Bieldside & Milltimber West 81.9 79.5 84.2 86 84.7 87.3 Cummings Park 76.3 73.7 78.9 82.7 80.3 85 Danestone 78.1 75.5 80.7 78.9 76.3 81.5 Denmore 81.3 78.7 83.9 79.4 77 81.8 Dyce 78.9 76.7 81 82.3 80.1 84.5 Ferryhill North 77.8 75.4 80.2 79.7 77.6 81.8 Ferryhill South 78.3 76.4 80.2 84 80.8 87.1 Froghall, Powis & Sunnybank 77 73.8 80.2 80.4 77.7 83.1 Garthdee 74.8 72.8 76.8 81.3 78.4 84.1 George Street 71.2 68.7 73.7 78.6 76.4 80.8 Hanover North 72.9 66.5 79.4 - - - Hanover South 72.5 69.7 75.4 75.6 71.9 79.3 Hazlehead 81.5 79.8 83.2 85.6 84.3 87 Heathryfold & Middlefield 72.3 69.7 74.9 78 76.1 80 Hilton 78.6 76.6 80.6 82.5 80.7 84.3 Kincorth, Leggart & Nigg North 73.9 71.4 76.4 79.2 76.7 81.7 Kincorth, Leggart & Nigg South 77.8 74.7 80.8 83.3 81.2 85.3 Kingswells 79 77 81.1 84.4 82.3 86.5 Mastrick 74.2 71.3 77.1 83.5 81.3 85.7 Midstocket 72.5 68.2 76.7 76.8 72.8 80.7 Northfield 74 71.6 76.4 79.6 77.8 81.5 Old Aberdeen 75.1 71.8 78.3 80.5 77.6 83.3 Oldmachar East 81.8 80.1 83.6 84.3 82.9 85.7 Oldmachar West 80.5 78.4 82.5 82.6 80.1 85.2 Rosemount 77.3 74.5 80.1 82.4 79.8 85 Seaton 69.4 67 71.8 78.3 75.2 81.5 Sheddocksley 72.5 69.9 75.2 79.4 76.6 82.2 Stockethill 75 72.8 77.2 79.3 76.9 81.7 Summerhill 75.3 72.8 77.8 79.9 77.5 82.3 Tillydrone 75.3 72.4 78.2 78.6 76.4 80.9 Torry East 71.3 68.9 73.6 76.6 74.4 78.9 Torry West 72.5 70 75 75.7 73.6 77.8 West End North - - - 84.5 82.1 86.9 West End South 82.1 79.8 84.4 84.7 82.1 87.2 Woodside 71.6 68.9 74.4 74.2 71.7 76.7 Note: figures quoted are a 5 year mean average produced by aggregating intermediate zone deaths registrations and populations CI = 95% Confidence Interval Source: ScotPHO Profiles Tool, available at: https://scotland.shinyapps.io/ScotPHO_profiles_tool/

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Appendix 4: Life expectancy at age 65 by local authority area, males and females, Scotland 2014- 2016

Males Females

Years 1 Rank2 Years 1 Rank2

Scotland 17.4 - 19.7 -

Aberdeen City 16.9 27 19.7 20 Aberdeenshire 18.3 5 20.3 13 Angus 17.9 11 20.5 9 Argyll and Bute 17.5 19 20.6 8 City of Edinburgh 18.0 10 20.5 10 Clackmannanshire 17.5 20 19.3 24 Dumfries and Galloway 17.9 12 20.1 15 Dundee City 16.9 26 19.3 25 East Ayrshire 17.0 25 18.5 30 East Dunbartonshire 19.4 2 21.2 3 East Lothian 18.0 8 20.7 7 East Renfrewshire 18.7 4 21.4 1 Falkirk 17.3 21 19.4 22 Fife 17.8 14 19.9 18 Glasgow City 15.2 32 18.2 32 Highland 18.3 6 21.0 5 Inverclyde 16.6 28 19.4 23 Midlothian 17.5 18 19.8 19 Moray 17.8 15 20.4 12 Na h-Eileanan Siar 17.2 23 21.2 2 North Ayrshire 17.1 24 19.5 21 North Lanarkshire 16.2 31 18.6 29 Orkney Islands 19.7 1 21.1 4 Perth and Kinross 19.2 3 20.9 6 Renfrewshire 16.6 29 19.1 28 Scottish Borders 18.2 7 20.4 11 Shetland Islands 17.6 17 20.1 16 South Ayrshire 18.0 9 19.9 17 South Lanarkshire 17.2 22 19.2 27 Stirling 17.8 13 20.1 14 West Dunbartonshire 16.2 30 18.5 31 West Lothian 17.6 16 19.3 26 Source: National Records Scotland, Life Expectancy for Administrative Areas within Scotland 2013-2015, Available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/life-expectancy/life-expectancy-in-scottish-areas/2013- 2015/list-of-tables 1The results may vary from year to year, particularly those based on small populations. 2Rank out of 32 local authority areas (high to low).

Research and Information, Briefing Paper, Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy Page 24

Commissioning Business Intelligence & Performance Management

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