Household Projections Aberdeen City

May 2017

RESEARCH AND INFORMATION

Research and Information Briefing Paper: May 2017

2014-BASED HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS – ABERDEEN CITY

This briefing paper looks at the most recent household projections for Aberdeen City. It is based on data released by the National Records of Scotland (NRS) on 31st January 2017. This gives information on household projections for the 25-year period from 2014 to 2039.

This report focuses on the principle household projections for Aberdeen City. Household projections are trend-based - the principle household projections use assumptions about future trends which are thought to be most likely to occur over the next 25 years. However, as household projections are strongly based on population projections, the NRS also produces basic information on two types of variant projections – low migration and high migration – to reflect the uncertainty around population projections. These variant projections use the same assumptions about fertility and mortality as the principle projection, but assume a varied level of migration to and from Scotland.

This paper describes the overall household projections for Aberdeen City and also household projections by type of household and age of head of household. The paper then looks at the average household size and compares current projections with previous projections. Finally variant projections (high and low migration) are also outlined. Where appropriate, comparisons with other local authorities and with Scotland are also presented.

This is one in a series of briefing papers produced by the Research and Information Team. It is intended that these papers will be used by council services and, where appropriate, our Community Planning partners to assist policy development and service delivery.

For more information on this paper please contact: Research and Information Team Office of Chief Executive Aberdeen City council Old Town House, Broad Street 1st Floor, Room 1-3 Aberdeen, AB10 1FY  01224 523866  [email protected]

This report, and other statistical reports, can be found in the ‘Stats and Facts’ section of the Aberdeen City Council website: www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/statsandfacts

We value your comments/feedback and would appreciate if you could provide your comments on this paper by following the link: https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/research-feedback-form

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Main points:

 The most recent household projections are based on the 2014-based household projections data and give estimates of the projected households of an area over a 25 year period from 2014 to 2039.

 Based on the principle projections, between 2014 and 2039 the number of households in Aberdeen City is projected to increase by 25,083 (24%) from 105,287 in 2014 to 130,370 in 2039.

 Aberdeen City is projected to have the fifth highest rate of increase in the number of households among all local authorities in Scotland - higher than the rate for Scotland of 14%.

 Almost all household types in Aberdeen City are projected to increase in number over the 25 year period. The largest increase will be in the number of adults living alone. Between 2014 and 2039, people aged 16 and over living alone in Aberdeen City is projected to increase by 14,148 (34%); from 41,236 in 2014 to 55,384 in 2039.

 Household projections by age of head of household indicate that the largest projected absolute increase will be in households headed by someone aged 45-59 years with an increase of 8,359 (32%) from 26,368 to 34,726. The largest percentage increase (58%) is projected in households headed by someone aged 75 years and over.

 The average household size in Aberdeen City is projected to decrease by -5% from an average of 2.09 persons per household in 2014 to 1.98 persons per household in 2039.

 2014-based household projections are lower than 2012-based projections. The projected number of households in 2037 for the 2012-based projections was 140,380 compared to 128,379 in the 2014-based projections - a difference of 12,001 households.

 Along with principal household projections, variant projections based on low and high migration assumptions are also produced. Projections for the low migration variant estimate there will be 121,106 households in 2039 while those for the high migration estimate there will be 139,529 households.

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1. Introduction

Household projections give estimates of the projected number of households within an area over a 25 year period and are published every two years. The 2014-based household projections were published by the National Records of Scotland (NRS) on 31st January 2017. These projections cover the period from 2014 to 2039.

Household projections are produced for each local authority area in Scotland, broken down into household types (based on the number of adults and children living in the household) and age groups (based on the age of the head of household).

Detailed information for the 2014-based household projections is available on the NRS website and can be viewed by following the link: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by- theme/households/household-projections/2014-based-household-projections/list-of-tables

1.1 Methodology used by the NRS Household projections are based on the following 5 sets of data:  2014-based population projections for Scottish Areas (NRS)  Estimates of households and dwellings in Scotland (NRS)  Head of household data (1991, 2001 and 2011 Censuses)  Household type distribution (2014 Household Survey)  Communal establishment data (e.g. people in care homes, student residences, armed forces etc.)

There are several stages of calculation carried out by NRS to produce a comprehensive household projection. The number of people living in households is estimated by taking the population projections for each year and subtracting the number of people living in communal establishments (i.e. student halls of residence, care homes or prisons). To estimate the number of household types, information on household formation is projected forward from Scotland’s Census. These figures are then weighted using data from the 2014 Scottish Household Survey. This information is then applied to the household population to produce the household projections. The main or principle household projection uses assumptions about trends which are thought to be the most likely to occur over the next 25 years.

For full information on the methodology please visit the following link: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by- theme/households/household-projections/2014-based-household-projections/source-data

1.2 Limitations All projections have limitations. Projections are calculations that show what would happen if certain assumptions are made. These household projections are trend- based (i.e. they are based on what has happened in the past – in this case prior to mid 2014) and therefore cannot take into account current or future changes which may impact, for example, local (and national) birth, fertility or migration rates. Also,

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household projections are strongly based on population projections and as a result any assumptions used in the population projections will have an effect on the household projections. Household projections, therefore, give an indication of what might happen if past trends continue - they are not forecasts about what is expected to happen. As a result, caution should be taken when applying these projections.

2. All households

This section looks at the projected change in the total number of households between 2014 and 2039.

2.1 Aberdeen City In Aberdeen City, the total number of households is projected to increase by 25,083 from 105,287 in 2014 to 130,370 in 2039 - an increase of 23.8%. This rate of increase is considerably higher than the projected rate of increase in Scotland as a whole, where the total number of households is projected to rise by 14.3% (Table 1).

Table 1: Household projections, all households, Aberdeen City and Scotland, 2014-2039 Percentage Change 2014 2039 change 2014-2039 2014-2039 n n n % Aberdeen City 105,287 130,370 25,083 23.8%

Scotland 2,418,336 2,763,773 345,437 14.3% Source: National Records of Scotland, 2014-based household projections, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics- and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/households/household-projections/2014-based-household-projections/list-of-tables

The projected average annual increase in Aberdeen City is estimated at 1,003. Figure 1 shows the projected number of households by 5-yearly intervals.

Figure 1: Projected number of households by 5-yearly intervals, Aberdeen City, 2014-2039

140,000 130,370 125,327 119,987

114,880 120,000 109,846 105,287 100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

Numberofhouseholds 20,000

0 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039

Source: National Records of Scotland, 2014-based household projections, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics- and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/households/household-projections/2014-based-household-projections/list-of-tables

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2.2 Comparison with other local authorities in Scotland Figure 2 shows the projected change in household numbers in all 32 local authority areas and for Scotland (Aberdeen City and Scotland are highlighted in red). To enable direct comparison across all local authorities the percentage change is presented.

As can be seen in the chart, there is considerable variation in the projected rate of change across local authorities, ranging from a decrease of 5% in Inverclyde to an increase of 31% in Midlothian. Aberdeen City has the fifth highest rate of increase of all local authority areas. Appendix 1 gives full details of the projected change between 2014 and 2039 for all local authorities.

Figure 2: Projected percentage change in household numbers by local authority, 2014-2039 35% 30%

25% 20% 15% 10% 5%

Percentage change 0% -5%

-10%

Fife

Angus

Falkirk

Moray

Stirling

Scotland

Highland

Inverclyde

Midlothian

East Lothian East City Dundee

Glasgow City Glasgow

East Ayrshire East

West Lothian West

Renfrewshire

Aberdeen City Aberdeen

Orkney Islands Orkney

South Ayrshire South

North Ayrshire North

Aberdeenshire

Argyll and Bute and Argyll

Shetland Islands Shetland

Scottish Borders Scottish

Perth and Kinross and Perth

City of Edinburgh City

South Lanarkshire South

North Lanarkshire North

East Renfrewshire East

Na h-Eileanan Siar h-Eileanan Na

Clackmannanshire

East Dunbartonshire East West Dunbartonshire West Dumfries Galloway and Dumfries Source: National Records of Scotland, 2014-based household projections, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics- and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/households/household-projections/2014-based-household-projections/list-of-tables

3. Projected household change by household type

This section looks the projected change by household type. Household type refers to the number of adults or adult/children combinations in each household. There are five categories:  1 adult, no children  2 adults, no children  3 or more adults, no children  1 adult and 1 or more children  2 or more adults and 1 or more children

3.1 Aberdeen City Most household types in Aberdeen City are projected to increase over the 25 year period. The category with the highest projected increase is single adults with no

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children. Between 2014 and 2039, the number of single adult households in Aberdeen City is projected to increase by 14,149 (34%); from 41,236 in 2014 to 55,384 in 2039. The category with the next highest projected increase is households with two or more adults and no children which is projected to increase by 8,854 (26%) from 33,847 to 42,701. In contrast, the number of households with 3 or more adults and no children is projected to decrease by 13% in the period. Households with children (both single adult and two or more adults) are each projected to increase by 14%.

The pattern of projected household change in Aberdeen City is broadly consistent with the pattern for Scotland as a whole, although the level of projected change differs. The main difference lies in the projected change in households with children. While in Aberdeen City there are projected increases in both single adult with children and two or more adults with children households, in Scotland there is a projected decrease in the amount of households with two or more adults and children (-12%), and a correspondingly higher projected increase in the number of households with only one adult and children (22% in Scotland compared to 14% in Aberdeen City). Table 2 shows the projected change by household type for Aberdeen City and Scotland.

Table 2: Projected change by household type, Aberdeen City and Scotland, 2014- 2039 Change between 2014 2039 2014 and 2039 n % n % n % Aberdeen City 1 adult 41,236 39.2 55,385 42.5 14,149 34% 2 adults 33,847 32.1 42,701 32.8 8,854 26% 3+ adults 8,199 7.8 7,159 5.5 -1,039 -13% 1 adult with 1 or more children 4,616 4.4 5,269 4.0 653 14% 2+ adults with 1 or more children 17,389 16.5 19,855 15.2 2,466 14% All households 105,287 100.0 130,370 100.0 25,083 24%

Scotland 1 adult 868,884 35.9 1,141,763 41.3 272,879 31% 2 adults 747,340 30.9 874,001 31.6 126,661 17% 3+ adults 204,636 8.5 168,184 6.1 -36,452 -18% 1 adult with 1 or more children 156,051 6.5 190,766 6.9 34,715 22% 2+ adults with 1 or more children 441,424 18.3 389,058 14.1 -52,366 -12% All households 2,418,336 100.0 2,763,773 100.0 345,437 14% Source: National Records of Scotland, 2014-based household projections, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics- and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/households/household-projections/2014-based-household-projections/list-of-tables

Table 2 also shows each household type as a proportion of all households (the italicised figures in the table). The most common household type in Aberdeen City (and Scotland) is single adult households. In 2014, 39.2% of all households in Aberdeen were in this category – this is projected to increase to 42.5% by 2039. The proportion of two-adult households is projected to increase only slightly (from 32.1%

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to 32.8%) while the proportion of households with 3 or more adults is projected to decrease from 7.8% to 5.5%. The proportion of households with children, both single and 2+ adults, is projected to decrease slightly in the period. Overall, by 2039 adult- only households will account for 80.8% of all households in Aberdeen City (compared to 79.1% in 2014), while households with children are projected to make-up 19.2% of households in the City (compared to 20.9% in 2014).

Again this pattern is broadly consistent with the pattern for Scotland as a whole, although, in keeping with the differences between Aberdeen City and Scotland in terms of the projected changes in households with children, the proportion of single adult with children households in Scotland is projected to increase. Figure 3 shows the percentage of households of each type in Aberdeen City and Scotland for 2014 and 2039.

Figure 3: Percentage of households of each type, Aberdeen City and Scotland, 2014 and 2039

Aberdeen 2014 Aberdeen 2039 Scotland 2014 Scotland 2039

45%

40% 35% 30%

25%

20% 15% 10%

Percentage ofhouseholds 5% 0% 1 adult 2 adults 3+ adults 1 adult, 1+ 2+ adults, 1+ children children Type of household

3.2 Comparison with other local authorities in Scotland Figure 4 shows the projected percentage change in households with children (combining 1 adult and 1 or more children and 2+ adults and 1 or more children) and households without children (combining 1 adult, 2 adults and 3 or more adults) between 2014 and 2039 in all 32 local authorities in Scotland.

The number of adult-only households is projected to increase in all local authority areas. The projected increases vary from a low of 1.8% in Inverclyde to a high of 35.0% in City of Edinburgh. With a projected increase of 26.4%, Aberdeen City has the fifth highest rate of increase in adult-only households of all local authority areas.

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In contrast with adult-only households, the number of households with children is projected to decrease in almost two-thirds of local authorities. The local authority with the largest projected percentage decrease is Na h-Eileanan Siar where the number of households with children is projected to fall by 29.7%. Of the 11 local authorities with a projected increase in the number of households with children, increases range from a low of 0.5% in Moray to a high of 24.7% in Midlothian. At 14.2%, Aberdeen City has the third highest rate of increase in the number of households with children.

Figure 4: Projected percentage change in the number of households with no children and with children by local authority, 2014-2039

Households with children Adult only households

Inverclyde Argyll and Bute Dumfries and Galloway North Ayrshire Na h-Eileanan Siar South Ayrshire West Dunbartonshire East Ayrshire Clackmannanshire Scottish Borders Angus Highland Shetland Islands Fife Renfrewshire Dundee City North Lanarkshire Orkney Islands Moray East Dunbartonshire Scotland South Lanarkshire Perth and Kinross Falkirk West Lothian Stirling Glasgow City East Renfrewshire Aberdeen City East Lothian Aberdeenshire Midlothian City of Edinburgh -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% Percentage change between 2014 and 2039

4. Projected household change by age of head of household

This section describes the projected household change by the age of the head of household. (Note: for ease of reference this may be referred to as ‘age group of household’.)

Five age groups are considered:  16-29 years  30-44 years  45-59 years

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 60-74 years  75 years or over

4.1 Aberdeen City Table 3 shows the projected change in the number of households by age group of the head of household for Aberdeen City and Scotland.

Households in Aberdeen City are most commonly headed by someone aged 30-44 years. Between 2014 and 2039, the number of households in this category is projected to increase by 7,511 (26%), from 28,831 to 36,342. However, the largest absolute increase between 2014 and 2039 is projected to be in households headed by someone aged 45-59 years. The number of households in this category is projected to increase by 8,358 (32%). In contrast, the number of households headed by someone aged 16-29 years is projected to remain virtually unchanged. The largest proportionate increase in households is projected to be in those headed by someone aged 75 years or over. The number of households headed by someone in this age group is projected to increase by 58% (6,638 households) – however, in terms of numbers, this group would still be the smallest age group of households.

In Scotland as a whole, the largest proportionate increase is also projected to be in households headed by someone aged 75 years or over. However, the increase here is considerably higher than the projected increase in Aberdeen City (79% compared to 58%). Conversely, the increases in other age groups (30-44 years, 45-59 years and 60- 74 years) are all lower than those projected for Aberdeen City (see Table 3). As with Aberdeen City, the number of households headed by someone aged 16-29 years is projected to remain virtually unchanged over the period.

Table 3: Change in age of head of household, Aberdeen City and Scotland, 2014-2039 Absolute change Percentage Age groups 2014 2039 2014-2039 change 2014-2039 Aberdeen City 16-29 20,832 20,820 -12 0% 30-44 28,831 36,342 +7,511 +26% 45-59 26,368 34,726 +8,358 +32% 60-74 18,285 21,143 +2,858 +16% 75 and over 10,971 17,339 +6,368 +58% All households 105,287 130,370 +25,083 +24%

Scotland 16-29 281,213 281,448 +235 0% 30-44 588,324 625,739 +37,415 +6% 45-59 701,133 706,765 +5,632 +1% 60-74 536,483 593,713 +57,230 +11% 75 and over 311,183 556,107 +244,924 +79% All households 2,418,336 2,763,773 +345,437 +14% Source: National Records of Scotland, 2014-based household projections, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics- and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/households/household-projections/2014-based-household-projections/list-of-tables

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Figure 5 gives a graphical illustration of the projected change in the number of households by age group for Aberdeen City – highlighting the areas of change and the relative size of each age group of households.

Figure 5: Projected change in the number of households in Aberdeen City by age of head of household, 2014-2039 40,000 36,342 34,726 2014 2039

35,000 28,831 30,000 26,368 25,000 20,832 20,820 21,143 20,000 18,285 17,339

15,000 10,971

Numberofhouseholds 10,000

5,000

0 16-29 years 30-44 years 45-59 years 60-74 years 75 years and over Age group of head of household

4.2 Comparison with other local authorities in Scotland In all local authorities across Scotland, the projected percentage increase is highest in households headed by someone aged 75 years or over. Projected increases in this age group range from a low of 40% in Dundee City to a high of 123% in West Lothian. Figure 6 shows the projected percentage change in households headed by someone aged 75 years or over for all local authorities in Scotland. Scotland and Aberdeen City are highlighted in red. In this age group, Aberdeen City has the third lowest projected increase of all local authorities.

Figure 6: Projected increase in households headed by someone aged 75 year or over, local authority areas and Scotland, 2014-2039

140%

120% 100% 80% 60% 40%

20% Percentage change

Fife

Angus

Falkirk

Moray

Stirling

Scotland

Highland

Inverclyde

Midlothian

East Lothian East

Dundee Dundee City

Glasgow City Glasgow

East Ayrshire East

West Lothian West

Renfrewshire

Aberdeen City Aberdeen

Orkney Islands Orkney

SouthAyrshire

North Ayrshire North

Aberdeenshire

Argyll and Bute and Argyll

Shetland Islands Shetland

Scottish Scottish Borders

Perth andKinross Perth

City of of CityEdinburgh

SouthLanarkshire

North Lanarkshire North

East Renfrewshire East

Na h-Eileanan Siar Na h-Eileanan

Clackmannanshire

East Dunbartonshire East West Dunbartonshire West and DumfriesGalloway Source: National Records of Scotland, 2014-based household projections, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics- and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/households/household-projections/2014-based-household-projections/list-of-tables

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While all local authorities show a projected increase in the number of households headed by someone aged 75 years or over, there is greater variability in projected changes in numbers of other age groups of households. Only 8 local authorities (including Aberdeen City) do not have projected decreases in any of the household age groups. These are shown in Figure 7. To give a brief indication of the changes in other areas, Figure 8 shows the percentage changes for household age groups for the remaining local authorities. As can be seen in the charts, there is no consistent pattern of change across these areas. (Note: these charts do not include the 75 years or over age group). A table detailing all changes for all local authorities is given in Appendix 2.

Figure 7: Projected increase by household age group, selected local authorities and Scotland, 2014-2039

16-29 years 30-44 years 45-59 years 60-74 years

45% 40% 35%

30%

25%

20% numbers 15% 10%

5% Projectedchangein household 0% Scotland Aberdeenshire Midlothian East Lothian East Stirling City of Aberdeen City Dundee City Renfrewshire Edinburgh

Figure 8: Projected change by household age group, selected local authorities and Scotland, 2014-2039

16-29 years 30-44 years 45-59 years 60-74 years 40%

30%

20%

10%

-10%

Percentage change -20%

-30%

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5. Household types by age of head of household

This section combines information on projections by household type and by age group of head of household.

5.1 Aberdeen City Single adult households: As reported in Section 3, single adult households are the most common household type in Aberdeen City. Figure 9 shows the projected change in single adult households by age group for males and females. The number of households headed by someone in the two younger age groups (16-24 years and 25- 34 years) is projected to decrease slightly for both males and females. The number of households in all other age groups is projected to increase for both males and females – the only exception being households headed by women aged 65-74 years which is projected to decrease slightly in the period. The largest absolute increase is projected to be in households headed by males aged 35-44 years. The number of households in this group is projected to increase by 2,659 (67.0%), from 3,967 in 2014 to 6,626 in 2039. This would make households headed by males aged 35-44 years (rather than males aged 25-34 years as in the 2014 figures) the most common group of single adult households. The largest percentage increase is projected to be in households headed by males aged 85+ years – the number of households in this group is projected to increase by 168.8% from 552 in 2014 to 1,484 in 2039. The second largest percentage increase is projected to be in households headed by females aged 85+ years – the number of households in this category is projected to increase by 77.7% (from 1,744 in 2014 to 3,099 in 2039).

Figure 9: Projected change in single adult households by age of head of household, males and females, Aberdeen City, 2014-2039

Male 2014 Male 2039 Female 2014 Female 2039

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

Numberofhouseholds 1,000

0 16-24 years 25-34 years 35-44 years 45-54 years 55-64 years 65-74 years 75-84 years 85+ years

Source: National Records of Scotland, 2014-based household projections, Detailed Council Area Tables, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/households/household-projections/2014-based- household-projections/list-of-tables

Figure 10 shows the projected changes to single adult households by age group of head of household for males and females combined. In 2014 single adult households were most common in the 25-34 year age group. By 2039, it is projected that single adult households will be most commonly headed by 35-44 year-olds (10,355 households) and 45-54 year-olds (10,322 households). The largest percentage increase

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(99.6%) is projected to be in single adult households headed by someone aged 85+ years.

Figure 10: Projected change in single adult households by age of head of household, all persons, Aberdeen City, 2014-2039

All 2014 All 2039

12,000

10,355 10,322

10,000 8,842 8,633 8,559 8,000 6,136 6,172 5,858 5,713 6,000 5,373 4,771 4,605 4,583 4,000 2,558 2,296 1,845

Numberofhouseholds 2,000

0 16-24 years 25-34 years 35-44 years 45-54 years 55-64 years 65-74 years 75-84 years 85+ years

Two-adult households: Figure 11 shows the projected change in the number of two- adult households by age of head of household. The most common age group for two- adult households is 25-34 years – by 2039 it is projected that there will be 9,748 households in this category. The number of two-adult households is projected to increase in almost every age group except the 45-54 year and 55-64 year age groups, both of which are projected to decrease slightly over the period. The largest absolute increase (2,317) in two adult households is projected in the 75-84 year age group (increase of 76.1% from 3,043 in 2014 to 5,360 in 2039). As in the single adult households, the largest percentage increase is projected in households headed by those aged 85+ years (96.0%).

Figure 11: Projected change in 2 adult households by age of head of household, Aberdeen City, 2014-2039

2014 2039

12,000 9,748 10,000

7,568 8,000 6,563 6,879 6,413 6,000 5,188 5,527 5,360 3,937 3,988 3,938 3,916 4,000 3,043 2,580 2,000 1,260

643 Numberofhouseholds 0 16-24 years 25-34 years 35-44 years 45-54 years 55-64 years 65-74 years 75-84 years 85+ years

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Three or more adult households: The overall number of households with 3 or more adults is projected to decrease by 13% in the period from 2014 to 2039. The largest absolute decreases are projected to be in households aged 45-54 years (decrease of 898) and households aged 55-64 years (decrease of 421). The largest percentage decrease is projected to be in the 35-44 year age group (down 47.8% from 435 to 228). In contrast, the number of 3+ adult households is projected to increase substantially (73.3%) in the 25-34 year age group from 745 in 2014 to 1,290 in 2039. However, 3+ adult households will still be most common in the 16-24, 45-54 and 55- 64 year age groups – with approximately 1,500 households in each age group (see Figure 12).

Figure 12: Projected change in 3+ adult households by age of head of household, Aberdeen City, 2014-2039

2014 2039

3,000

2,442 2,500

1,928 2,000 1,591 1,569 1,544 1,508 1,500 1,290

1,000 745 727 677 435 343

500 228 330 Numberofhouseholds

0 16-24 years 25-34 years 35-44 years 45-54 years 55-64 years 65-74 years 75+

One adult plus one or more children: Overall it is projected that there will be a 14% increase in the number of single adult plus children households. However, when examined by age of head of household, the increase is not consistent across all age groups. Projections indicate that there will be a drop in the number of single adult plus children households in younger age groups (16-19 years, 20-24 years, 25-29 years, 30-34 years and 35-39 years), while the number of single adult with children households is projected to increase substantially in the two older age groups (40-44 years and 45+ years). The largest increase is projected to be in the 45+ years age group which will almost double in the period, from 1,000 in 2014 to 1,988 in 2039 – an increase of 99.0%. The number of single adult plus children households is projected to increase by 62.0% in the 40-44 years age group. Figure 13 shows the projected changes in this household type by age group of head of household. (Note: age group of head of household is given in 5 year bands rather than the 10 year bands used in adult only household types).

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Figure 13: Projected change in 1 adult plus 1 or more children households by age of head of household, Aberdeen City, 2014-2039

2014 2039

2,500

1,988 2,000

1,500 1,307

1,000 792 1,000 843 807 717 788 591 410 500 377 194 Numberofhouseholds 46 24 0 16-19 years 20-24 years 25-29 years 30-34 years 35-39 years 40-44 years 45+ years

Two or more adults and one or more children: The pattern of projected change in the number of households with two or more adults and children is broadly similar to that seen in single adult with children households, with numbers decreasing in the younger age groups and increasing in the older age groups (see Figure 14). The largest absolute decrease is in households aged 30-34 years (decrease of 423 from 2,950 in 2014 to 2,527 in 2039). The largest absolute increase is projected in households aged 45-49 years (increase of 1,246 from 3,012 to 4,258). The largest percentage increases are projected to be 50-54 year and 55-59 year age group – both projected to increase by 67.0% in the period.

Figure 14: Projected change in 2 or more adult plus 1 or more children households by age of head of household, Aberdeen City, 2014-2039

2014 2039

4,500 4,258

3,884 4,000 3,354 3,538 3,500 3,276 3,012 2,950 2,843 3,000 2,527 2,500

2,000 1,704 1,412 1,500 1,180 1,100 1,000 659 567 331 406 Numberofhouseholds 500 212 23 8 0 16-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60+ years years years years years years years years years years

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6. Average household size

6.1 Aberdeen City Between 2014 and 2039, the average household size in Aberdeen City is projected to decrease by 5%, from an average of 2.09 persons per household in 2014 to 1.98 persons per household in 2039 (see Table 4). Over the same period, the average household size in Scotland as a whole is projected to decrease by 7%.

Table 4: Average household size, Aberdeen City and Scotland, 2014-2039 % Change 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2014-2039 Aberdeen City 2.09 2.08 2.06 2.04 2.01 1.98 -5% Scotland 2.17 2.13 2.09 2.07 2.04 2.01 -7% Source: National Records of Scotland, 2014-based household projections, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics- and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/households/household-projections/2014-based-household-projections/list-of-tables

6.2 Comparison with other local authorities in Scotland Between 2014 and 2039, the average household size is projected to decrease in all local authority areas in Scotland. In 2014 the average household size ranged from a low of 2.03 persons per household in Fife to a high of 2.42 persons per household in the City of Edinburgh. In 2039 it is projected that the average number of persons per household will range from a low of 1.79 in Moray to a high of 2.28 in Aberdeenshire. Figure 15 shows the projected percentage change in the average household size in all 32 local authorities between 2014 and 2039. Aberdeen City has the fifth smallest projected decrease. Full details of the average household size for all local authorities are given in Appendix 3.

Figure 15: Projected percentage change in average household size by local authority,

Scotland, 2014-2039

Glasgow City Glasgow Aberdeenshire Inverclyde Falkirk &Kinross Perth City Aberdeen of City Edinburgh, Renfrewshire East Siar Eilean Angus Borders Scottish Lothian East Lothian West Stirling Galloway & Dumfries Scotland City Dundee Clackmannanshire Bute & Argyll Ayrshire East Dunbartonshire East Lanarkshire South Ayrshire South Highland Fife Islands Shetland Lanarkshire North Midlothian Ayrshire North Dunbartonshire West Renfrewshire Islands Orkney Moray

0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% -16% Percentage change Source: National Records of Scotland, 2014-based household projections, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics- and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/households/household-projections/2014-based-household-projections/list-of-tables

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7. Comparison with 2012-based household projections

This section compares most recent household projections (2014-based) with previous (2012-based) projections. Comparisons are for projected household numbers in 2037 as 2012-based projections only go to that date.

7.1 Aberdeen City Figure 16 shows 2012-based and 2014 based household projections for Aberdeen City. As can be seen, the 2014-based projections are lower than the 2012-based projections. The projected number of households in 2037 has dropped from 140,380 in the 2012-based figures to 128,379 in the 2014-based figures – a drop of 12,001 (8.5%).

Figure 16: Comparison of 2012-based and 2014-based household projections, Aberdeen City, 2012-2037 150,000 140,000 130,000 120,000 110,000 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000

50,000

Number of households of Number

2013 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

2012-based 2014-based

7.2 Comparison with other local authorities in Scotland Figure 17 shows the percentage change between 2012-based and 2014-based household projections for all local authorities. While in some areas the projections are relatively unchanged with only a small difference between the two projections, in other local authority areas the differences are more marked. The percentage change ranges from an increase of 12.1% in East Dunbartonshire (i.e. 2014-based household projection is 12% higher than the 2012-based projections) to a decrease of 9% in Aberdeen City (i.e. 2014-based household projection is 9% lower than the 2012-based projection). Aberdeen City has the largest decrease in the projected number of households of all local authorities in Scotland.

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Figure 17: Percentage change between 2012-based and 2014-based household projections until 2037 by local authorities

East Dunbartonshire 12.1% Midlothian 8.6% Moray 7.6% Argyll and Bute 6.6% Inverclyde 6.4% East Renfrewshire 6.2% Angus 4.6% Aberdeenshire 3.4% South Lanarkshire 2.6% North Ayrshire 2.5% West Dunbartonshire 2.2% Scottish Borders 1.5% Dumfries and Galloway 1.3% Renfrewshire 1.1% South Ayrshire 0.9% West Lothian 0.3% Clackmannanshire -0.1% North Lanarkshire -0.3% Highland -0.3% Falkirk -0.5% East Lothian -1.2% Scotland -1.4% Fife -1.4% Orkney Islands -2.3% East Ayrshire -3.4% Stirling -3.9% Na h-Eileanan Siar -4.2% City of Edinburgh -5.8% Glasgow City -6.4% Perth and Kinross -7.0% Dundee City -8.1% Shetland Islands -8.1% Aberdeen City -8.5% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% Percentage change Source: National Records of Scotland, 2014-based household projections, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics- and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/households/household-projections/2014-based-household-projections/list-of-tables

8. Variant projections

While the information in this report focuses on the principle projections (i.e. it uses assumptions about future trends which are thought most likely to occur), two variant household projections are also produced – low and high migration. Migration variant household projections are calculated by replacing the principal population projection with a variant migration population projection, keeping all other inputs to the household projections (communal establishment rates, headship rates, survey data and household estimates) unchanged.

Figure 18 shows the principle and variant projections for Aberdeen City. As seen in the graph, there are considerable differences in the projected number of households when variant projections are applied. The variant which uses a higher migration assumption projects that there will be a total of 139,529 households in 2039, while when using the lower migration assumptions the number of projected households in Aberdeen City is 121,106 (compared to 130,370 in the principle projection).

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Figure 18: Projected principal and variant household projections, Aberdeen City, 2014-2039

150,000

140,000

130,000

120,000

110,000

100,000 Numberofhouseholds 90,000

80,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039

Low migration Principal High migration

Table 5 shows the projected change in the number of households for Aberdeen City and Scotland for 5-year periods between 2014 and 2039 by principal and variant projections. Over the whole period it is projected that the number of households for the low migration variant will increase by 15,819 (15.0%) and the number of households for the high migration variant will increase by 34,242 (32.5%). In keeping with the lower projected principle projection, in Scotland the projected percentage increases for low and high variant projections are lower than those for Aberdeen City at 9.7% and 18.5% respectively. Full details of principal and variant projections by year for Aberdeen City are given in Appendix 4.

Table 5: Projected change in the number of households between 2014 and 2039 by variant projections, Aberdeen City and Scotland Change 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2014- 2039 Aberdeen City 15,819 Low migration 105,287 108,428 111,573 114,742 118,104 121,106 (15.0%) 25,083 Principal 105,287 109,846 114,880 119,987 125,327 130,370 (23.8%) 34,242 High migration 105,287 111,307 118,170 125,163 132,432 139,529 (32.5%) Scotland 235,340 Low migration 2,418,336 2,489,260 2,546,059 2,592,942 2,629,500 2,653,676 (9.7%) 345,437 Principal 2,418,336 2,503,212 2,580,490 2,650,280 2,711,938 2,763,773 (14.3%) 455,315 High migration 2,418,336 2,517,182 2,614,886 2,707,543 2,794,249 2,873,651 (18.8%) Source: National Records of Scotland, 2014-based household projections, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics- and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/households/household-projections/2014-based-household-projections/list-of-tables

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9. Summary and conclusions

Between 2014 and 2039, the number of households in Aberdeen City is projected to increase by almost 24%, from 105,287 in 2014 to 130,370 in 2039. This is this fifth highest projected rate of increase of all local authority areas in Scotland. Part of the explanation for the large projected increase in Aberdeen City is due to the relationship between household projections and population projections (which feed into household projections). Over the same period the population in Aberdeen City is projected to increase by 17.1% (the fifth highest rate of increase).

However, the projected increase in households is higher than the projected increase in population. A further explanation for the level of projected increase is that more people are expected to be living alone or living in smaller households. In Aberdeen City the number of people living alone is projected to increase by 34% and by 2039 it is estimated that 42.5% of all households will be single adult households. A large part of this growth will be in older adult households – the number of people aged 85+ years who are living alone is projected to almost double (increase of 99.6%) by 2039. Approximately two thirds (67.6%) of these households will be headed by women.

Although Aberdeen City is projected to have one of the highest rates of increase in the number of households, comparison with previous projections shows that the 2014- based household projections were lower (-8.5%) than the 2012-based projections. Again, the reason for this is the link between household projections and population projections – 2014-based population projections were lower (-8.1%) than 2012-based population projections. (Note: the relatively large reduction in population projections was due, in part, to a change in the methodology used in the 2014-based projections. These changes allowed migration flows within Scotland to be better accounted for. An impact of this was a lowering of projected populations of large city council areas such as Aberdeen City and an increase in the projected population of some of the surrounding areas. Further information on 2014-based population projections for Aberdeen City can be found at: http://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/nmsruntime/saveasdialog.asp?lID=73692&sID=332).

Finally, it should be remembered that these are projections and not forecasts. They are assumptions about what could happen in the future, based on past trends - they therefore cannot take into account any current or future changes which may impact local or national trends. In this case, the projections are based on trends prior to 2014 and will not, for example, reflect any potential demographic consequences of the impact of the drop in oil price e.g. greater movement of people into/out of the City. For instance, in contrast with previous years, the most recent migration figures show a negative net migration to Aberdeen City between mid-2015 and mid-2016 which has resulted in a drop in the estimated population between 2015 and 2016 from 230,350 to 229,840. This contrasts with the projected population for Aberdeen City (2014- based) for 2016 which was 232,613. Therefore, while these projections are useful for future planning, caution should be used when they are applied.

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Appendix 1: Projected change in number of households by local authority, Scotland, 2014- 2039

2014 2039 Change % change Local Authority n n n % Midlothian 36,602 47,856 11,254 31% City of Edinburgh 229,792 299,856 70,064 30% Aberdeenshire 108,381 135,092 26,711 25% East Lothian 43,981 55,018 11,037 25% Aberdeen City 105,287 130,370 25,083 24% East Renfrewshire 38,048 45,657 7,609 20% Stirling 38,310 45,785 7,475 20% Perth and Kinross 66,035 77,794 11,759 18% West Lothian 75,035 87,436 12,401 17% Glasgow City 288,137 334,554 46,417 16% Falkirk 69,693 80,334 10,641 15% Dundee City 69,610 79,010 9,400 14% East Dunbartonshire 44,504 50,242 5,738 13% Moray 41,288 46,832 5,544 13% Orkney Islands 10,042 11,326 1,284 13% South Lanarkshire 142,286 159,999 17,713 12% Angus 52,692 57,829 5,137 10% Fife 163,958 180,896 16,938 10% Highland 105,711 116,438 10,727 10% Renfrewshire 82,385 90,591 8,206 10% North Lanarkshire 148,610 162,063 13,453 9% Shetland Islands 10,166 11,066 900 9% Scottish Borders 53,157 57,618 4,461 8% South Ayrshire 51,874 54,573 2,699 5% Clackmannanshire 23,217 23,972 755 3% East Ayrshire 54,401 56,296 1,895 3% Dumfries and Galloway 68,818 70,149 1,331 2% West Dunbartonshire 42,353 43,368 1,015 2% Na h-Eileanan Siar 12,920 12,872 -48 0% North Ayrshire 62,802 63,051 249 0% Argyll and Bute 40,857 40,318 -539 -1% Inverclyde 37,384 35,513 -1,871 -5% Scotland 2,418,336 2,763,773 345,437 14% Source: National Records of Scotland, 2014-based household projections, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and- data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/households/household-projections/2014-based-household-projections/list-of-tables n = number, % = percentage

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Appendix 2: Projected percentage change in households by age of head of household by local authority in Scotland, 2014-2039

Percentage change between 2014 and 2039 Local Authority 75 years and 16-29 years 30-44 years 45-59 years 60-74 years over Aberdeen City 0% 26% 32% 16% 58% Aberdeenshire 8% 13% 17% 13% 98% Angus -7% 1% -5% -2% 80% Argyll and Bute -18% -14% -25% -10% 74% City of Edinburgh 4% 21% 39% 32% 76% Clackmannanshire -16% -7% -20% 2% 104% Dumfries and Galloway -11% -1% -21% -11% 72% Dundee City 1% 22% 11% 1% 40% East Ayrshire -13% -4% -14% 2% 70% East Dunbartonshire -4% 2% -7% -4% 94% East Lothian 10% 14% 7% 23% 94% East Renfrewshire 32% 12% 1% 6% 86% Falkirk 2% -1% -2% 25% 84% Fife 0% 1% -8% 6% 82% Glasgow City -3% 10% 14% 31% 49% Highland -5% 0% -13% 1% 100% Inverclyde -20% -13% -25% -3% 60% Midlothian 34% 20% 23% 17% 96% Moray -6% 6% -7% 6% 90% Na h-Eileanan Siar -12% -16% -23% -5% 67% North Ayrshire -19% -10% -22% -4% 84% North Lanarkshire 2% -5% -8% 17% 78% Orkney Islands 10% 12% -14% -5% 100% Perth and Kinross 10% 15% -2% 4% 84% Renfrewshire 3% 4% -8% 8% 73% Scottish Borders 5% -3% -17% 2% 83% Shetland Islands -5% -14% -12% 13% 102% South Ayrshire -6% -1% -18% -7% 78% South Lanarkshire 3% 0% -6% 11% 90% Stirling 11% 17% 2% 12% 83% West Dunbartonshire -7% -8% -15% 7% 68% West Lothian 0% 2% -4% 21% 123% Scotland 0% 6% 1% 11% 79% Source: National Records of Scotland, 2014-based household projections, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and- data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/households/household-projections/2014-based-household-projections/list-of-tables

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Appendix 3: Average household size by local authority, Scotland, 2014-2039 Year Overall change Local Authority 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2014-2039 Aberdeen City 2.09 2.08 2.06 2.04 2.01 1.98 -0.11 -5% Aberdeenshire 2.38 2.35 2.33 2.31 2.30 2.28 -0.10 -4% Angus 2.18 2.13 2.10 2.08 2.06 2.04 -0.14 -6% Argyll & Bute 2.06 2.00 1.97 1.95 1.93 1.91 -0.15 -7% Clackmannanshire 2.07 2.06 2.02 1.98 1.95 1.92 -0.15 -7% Dumfries & Galloway 2.15 2.11 2.07 2.05 2.03 2.01 -0.14 -7% Dundee City 2.15 2.10 2.07 2.04 2.02 2.00 -0.15 -7% East Ayrshire 2.05 2.02 2.00 1.97 1.94 1.91 -0.14 -7% East Dunbartonshire 2.22 2.17 2.13 2.11 2.08 2.05 -0.17 -8% East Lothian 2.36 2.30 2.27 2.25 2.22 2.20 -0.16 -7% East Renfrewshire 2.28 2.24 2.21 2.19 2.17 2.14 -0.14 -6% Edinburgh, City of 2.42 2.38 2.36 2.33 2.30 2.27 -0.15 -6% Eilean Siar 2.24 2.20 2.17 2.14 2.12 2.10 -0.15 -6% Falkirk 2.19 2.16 2.14 2.12 2.10 2.08 -0.11 -5% Fife 2.03 1.98 1.95 1.92 1.89 1.86 -0.16 -8% Glasgow City 2.17 2.12 2.09 2.06 2.04 2.02 -0.15 -7% Highland 2.11 2.05 2.02 1.99 1.96 1.94 -0.17 -8% Inverclyde 2.33 2.30 2.28 2.27 2.24 2.23 -0.10 -4% Midlothian 2.24 2.17 2.13 2.10 2.07 2.04 -0.19 -9% Moray 2.08 2.00 1.93 1.87 1.83 1.79 -0.29 -14% North Ayrshire 2.15 2.09 2.05 2.02 1.99 1.97 -0.18 -9% North Lanarkshire 2.26 2.20 2.15 2.11 2.08 2.05 -0.20 -9% Orkney Islands 2.12 2.05 2.01 1.97 1.95 1.92 -0.20 -10% Perth & Kinross 2.19 2.16 2.13 2.11 2.09 2.07 -0.12 -5% Renfrewshire 2.09 2.02 1.99 1.96 1.93 1.90 -0.19 -9% Scottish Borders 2.12 2.09 2.06 2.04 2.02 2.00 -0.12 -6% Shetland Islands 2.26 2.20 2.15 2.11 2.08 2.06 -0.21 -9% South Ayrshire 2.14 2.10 2.06 2.03 2.00 1.98 -0.16 -8% South Lanarkshire 2.19 2.14 2.10 2.07 2.04 2.01 -0.19 -8% Stirling 2.27 2.22 2.17 2.15 2.13 2.10 -0.17 -7% West Dunbartonshire 2.10 2.04 2.00 1.97 1.94 1.91 -0.20 -9% West Lothian 2.34 2.29 2.25 2.22 2.19 2.17 -0.17 -7% Scotland 2.17 2.13 2.09 2.07 2.04 2.01 -0.15 -7% Source: National Records of Scotland, 2014-based household projections, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and- data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/households/household-projections/2014-based-household-projections/list-of-tables

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Appendix 4: Variant household projections by year, Aberdeen City, 2014-2039

Year Low migration Principal High migration

2014 105,287 105,287 105,287 2015 105,311 105,311 105,311 2016 106,147 106,489 106,849 2017 107,004 107,694 108,424 2018 107,757 108,814 109,904 2019 108,428 109,846 111,307 2020 109,093 110,882 112,709 2021 109,753 111,920 114,117 2022 110,389 112,934 115,495 2023 110,992 113,919 116,835 2024 111,573 114,880 118,170 2025 112,174 115,869 119,534 2026 112,783 116,866 120,900 2027 113,425 117,893 122,296 2028 114,075 118,934 123,718 2029 114,742 119,987 125,163 2030 115,405 121,042 126,603 2031 116,095 122,123 128,056 2032 116,762 123,192 129,502 2033 117,425 124,252 130,953 2034 118,104 125,327 132,432 2035 118,765 126,389 133,894 2036 119,369 127,397 135,310 2037 119,940 128,379 136,700 2038 120,531 129,381 138,118 2039 121,106 130,370 139,529 Source: National Records of Scotland, 2014-based household projections, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and- data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/households/household-projections/2014-based-household-projections/list-of-tables

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