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San Francisco Estuary Midwinter Waterfowl Survey: 2012 Survey Results and Trend Analysis (1981-2012)

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San Francisco Estuary Midwinter Waterfowl Survey: 2012 Survey Results and Trend Analysis (1981-2012) Prepared by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Pacific Southwest Region National Wildlife Refuge System Inventory and Monitoring Initiative San Francisco Estuary Midwinter Waterfowl Survey: 2012 Survey Results and Trend Analysis (1981-2012) By Orien M. W. Richmond, Sharon Dulava, Cheryl M. Strong and Joy D. Albertson U. S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Pacific Southwest Region Inventory and Monitoring Initiative San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge Complex 1 Marshlands Road Fremont, CA 94555 March 27, 2014 March 2014 San Francisco Estuary Midwinter Waterfowl Survey Suggested Citation: Richmond, O.M.W., Dulava, S., Strong, C.M. and Albertston, J.D. 2014. San Francisco Estuary Midwinter Waterfowl Survey: 2012 Survey Results and Trend Analysis (1981-2012). U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Pacific Southwest Region. National Wildlife Refuge System Inventory and Monitoring Initiative. Fremont, CA, USA. Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................ 6 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 7 National Context ...................................................................................................................... 7 Regional Context ..................................................................................................................... 8 Methods......................................................................................................................................... 10 Survey Area ............................................................................................................................... 10 Tidal stage ................................................................................................................................. 11 Aerial surveys ............................................................................................................................ 11 Preparation ............................................................................................................................. 11 Sampling Scheme .................................................................................................................. 12 Aircraft ................................................................................................................................... 12 Waterfowl counts ................................................................................................................... 13 Species identification ............................................................................................................. 13 Data collection and transcription ........................................................................................... 13 Ground counts ........................................................................................................................... 14 Data analysis ............................................................................................................................. 14 Results ........................................................................................................................................... 15 2012 Summary .......................................................................................................................... 15 Dabbling ducks .......................................................................................................................... 15 American wigeon ...................................................................................................................... 16 Gadwall ..................................................................................................................................... 16 Mallard ...................................................................................................................................... 16 Northern pintail ......................................................................................................................... 17 Northern shoveler ...................................................................................................................... 17 Diving ducks ............................................................................................................................. 17 Bufflehead ................................................................................................................................. 18 Canvasback................................................................................................................................ 18 Ruddy duck ............................................................................................................................... 18 2 March 2014 San Francisco Estuary Midwinter Waterfowl Survey Scaup spp................................................................................................................................... 18 Scoter spp. ................................................................................................................................. 19 American coot ........................................................................................................................... 19 Geese and swans........................................................................................................................ 19 Grebes........................................................................................................................................ 20 Species counts and composition by region ............................................................................... 20 Species counts and composition by land ownership/status ....................................................... 20 Discussion ..................................................................................................................................... 20 References ..................................................................................................................................... 24 Tables ............................................................................................................................................ 27 Figures........................................................................................................................................... 33 Appendices .................................................................................................................................... 52 Appendix A. Potential waterfowl and coot species present in the San Francisco Estuary, including common name, scientific name, name used in the SF Estuary Midwinter Waterfowl Survey, guild, family, subfamily and tribe,. .............................................................................. 52 Appendix B. San Francisco Bay Joint Venture population targets for focal waterfowl species. ................................................................................................................................................... 54 List of Tables Table 1. Regions and zones for the San Francisco Estuary Midwinter Waterfowl Survey. ......... 27 Table 2. Observers who participated in the 2012 Midwinter Waterfowl Survey (name, affiliation, survey type and number of years of previous experience conducting aerial or ground waterfowl counts).............................................................................................................. 27 Table 3. Survey type, date, observer, zone and plane type for the 2012 San Francisco Estuary Midwinter Waterfowl Survey. .......................................................................................... 28 Table 4. Number of waterfowl and coots counted by area in the San Francisco Estuary Midwinter Waterfowl Survey in January 2012................................................................................... 29 Table 5. Number of waterfowl and coots counted by land ownership/status in the SF Estuary Midwinter Waterfowl Survey in January 2012. ................................................................ 31 List of Figures Figure 1. Map of San Francisco Estuary Midwinter Waterfowl Survey regions and zones, including aerial transects and ponds that were surveyed by ground in 2012.................... 33 Figure 2. Survey units (ponds, sloughs and marshes) and aerial transects in North and South San Francisco Bay.................................................................................................................... 34 Figure 3. Aerial transects in Suisun Bay and Central San Francisco Bay. ................................... 35 3 March 2014 San Francisco Estuary Midwinter Waterfowl Survey Figure 4. (A) American Wigeon January count in the Pacific Flyway and San Francisco Estuary 1981-2012 with Loess curves; (B) American Wigeon January count in the San Francisco Estuary by region 1981-2012; and (C) American Wigeon distribution and count in Jan 2012................................................................................................................................... 36 Figure 5. (A) Gadwall January count in the Pacific Flyway and San Francisco Estuary 1981-2012 with Loess curves; (B) Gadwall January count in the San Francisco Estuary by region 1981-2012; and (C) Gadwall distribution and count in Jan 2012. .................................... 37 Figure 6. (A) Mallard January count in the Pacific
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