COVID-19 REPORT 9TH EDITION GLOBAL OUTBREAK OVERVIEW AND ITS IMPACT ON THE ENERGY SECTOR
7 MAY 2020 PUBLIC VERSION Table of Contents
Executive summary Outbreak status and outlook Impact on oil demand Impact on the oil and gas industry Methodology
2 Executive summary Demand floor is behind us, recovery has begun, but waves of new infection are likely ahead
In this week’s edition, we have analyzed herd immunity not only at the country level globally, but all the way down to the county level. We see large differences between counties within each country and region. The largest cities typically have two to three times as many cases of infection as their respective countries, on average. Thus, large cities with dense populations, intense business and cultural interaction, and widely available public transportation seem to be drivers for the spread of the virus. Some special events also appear to drive the spread of Covid-19, such as carnavals, ski holidays or religious festivals; we will touch upon some examples in this report. In the worst affected countries in Europe the share of infected people relative to the total population varies from 2% to 25%. This is still quite far from herd immunity. Only New York City, with the Bronx, Queens and Kings (Brooklyn) counties, seems to have reached a level that would result in some degree of herd immunity. We are therefore likely to see new waves of infection over the coming months as lockdown measures are now beginning to be loosened. The trend of loosening lockdown measures is clearly visible in city traffic data as well. Traffic bottomed out globally in mid-April with 16 million barrels per day in road fuel demand destruction and another 12 million barrels per day in destruction from other demand sources. We expect demand will recover significantly month-over-month going forward, but this is unlikely to occur quickly enough to avoid running out of physical storage. Thus, oil prices will remain volatile for the next few weeks and months. Nevertheless, despite extremely compressed prices and diminished profit for oil companies, governmental income from the upstream industry will still be $0.6 trillion this years, as fiscal income is also based on royalties. This is down from $1.5 trillion in 2018 and $1.3 trillion in 2019.Thus, oil dependent nations will need to cut national budgets significantly this year.
3 Table of Contents
Executive summary Outbreak status and outlook • Global overview • Key country focus Impact on oil demand Impact on the oil and gas industry Methodology
4 Global overview In Brazil, Russia, India and Bangladesh cases are still doubling every 8 to 10 days
Number of reported cases, key countries Cases (log scale)
1,000,000
Spain Italy Russia UK France Germany 100,000 Brazil Iran China India
Japan 10,000 Bangladesh South Korea
1,000
100 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 77 84 91 98 For further details please see our Covid-19 dashboard at rystadenergy.com. Source: Rystad Energy Covid-19 research and analysis; Worldometer
5 Global overview Subregions have seen fatality rates exceed normal levels by a factor of four
Number of new reported Covid-19 fatalities per day Per 100,000 people, 14 day rolling average Historical Future 10 This plot shows the Bronx level of peak daily 9 fatalities from Covid-19. Kings Normal fatality levels, without the influence of 8 the novel cornavirus, Lombardia are 2.0 to 2.7 for older Essex Queens populations like the US 7 and Europe. Here we see that peak fatalities Castille Madrid Union per day from Covid-19 6 La alone exceed the Brussels Mancha Nassau regular death rate by a factor of up to 4. 5 Limburg Westchester Grand Paris Aosta North Manhattan Est London In all countries there is Brabant Emilia-R a large spread between NE and 4 Suffolk Ligura Yorkshire regions, especially Wallonia when considering metropolitan areas with 3 Flanders the largest populations Bourg. South and highest death rates, Hauts-de Normal death rates Holland such as London, New 2 France Veneto York, Madrid and Paris.
Tuscany N. 1 Ireland SW More rural areas usually N. see fewer people Aquitaine infected. 0 Belgium France Italy Netherl. Spain UK US
Source: Rystad Energy Covid-19 model
6 Global overview Still many months ahead until herd immunity could be achieved in Northwest Europe
Share of population infected as of 5 May 2020
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
London 18% North East And Yorkshire 17% The true share of the North West 14% population already infected East Of England 13% with Coivd-19 as of 5 May is UK: 27% Midlands 12% shown here, split by region within each country. Wales 10% growth Scotland 9% over the last This shows that about 12% of South East 9% three weeks the population is infected, a figure which has grown 6% Northern Ireland significantly in the UK and the South West 6% Netherlands over the last Belgium: three weeks, while not Brussels 20% 8% growth showing much growth in Belgium. Wallonia 11% over the last Flanders 10% three weeks To achieve herd immunity, these countries would need Limburg 24% to accept looser social North Brabant 22% distancing measures and a higher mortality rate for Gelderland 12% another 40 weeks. Utrecht 11% South Holland 10% Alternatively, countries could Netherlands: keep current quarantine Overijssel 10% 62% growth measures while waiting for a North Holland 9% over the last vaccine. Zeeland 6% three weeks Flevoland 5% Friesland 4% Drenthe 3% Groningen 1%
Source: Rystad Energy Covid-19 model; Worldometer; country health agencies; New York Times true fatality rates
7 Global overview Transit station mobility data sheds light on infection growth differences between countries
Transit station activity (subway, bus or train stations) Percent above or below normal levels based on google mobility data 40
30 We observe that Belgium has recently seen a slower growth of infected cases, 20 while the UK and the Netherlands saw faster 10 growth. 0 This can be understood by analyzing mobility data for transit stations, such as train -10 stations, bus stops and subway stations. This shows -20 that Belgium went into a deeper level of lockdown -30 than the Netherlands, and that the UK lagged one week -40 behind Belgium in terms of Belgium implementing a lockdown. -50 Netherlands The UK also did not implement as strict United Kingdom lockdowns as Belgium, -60 explaining faster fatality growth in the UK in the last -70 three weeks. -80
-90
Source: Rystad Energy Covid-19 model; Google Mobility data
8 Global overview Transit mobility data also shows important regional differences within the Netherlands
Transit station activity in the Netherland (subway, bus or train stations) Percent above or below normal levels based on google mobility data Limburg and North Brabant have the strongest traditions for 60 carnaval celebrations in the 50 Carnaval Other Netherlands, a festival which begun this year on 23 February. 40 Limburg Predictabily, the day before the 30 North Brabant carnaval saw very high activity at public transit stations. 20 As of 9 March, one-third of the 10 321 reported cases in the Netherlands were in North 0 Brabant. -10 As of 5 May, this region had the highest mortality rate in the -20 Netherlands, as shown below. -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 -80 -90 1-Apr-20 3-Apr-20 5-Apr-20 7-Apr-20 9-Apr-20 2-Mar-20 4-Mar-20 6-Mar-20 8-Mar-20 11-Apr-20 10-Mar-20 12-Mar-20 14-Mar-20 16-Mar-20 18-Mar-20 20-Mar-20 22-Mar-20 24-Mar-20 26-Mar-20 28-Mar-20 30-Mar-20 15-Feb-20 17-Feb-20 19-Feb-20 21-Feb-20 23-Feb-20 25-Feb-20 27-Feb-20 29-Feb-20 North Limburg Brabant
Source: Rystad Energy Covid-19 model; Epidemiologische situatie COVID-19 in Nederland; Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu - RIVM 05 mei 2020
9 Key country focus Herd immunity will be nearly impossible in Southern Europe, except perhaps in Lombardia
Share of the population infected as of 5 May 2020
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Grand Est 15% Ile-de-France 15% Bourgogne-Franche-Comte 9% Hauts-de-France 7% Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes 5% Centre-Val de Loire 5% Corsica 4% Provence-Alpes-Cote d'Azur 4% Normandy 3% France: 6.9% Pays de la Loire 3% The true share of the Occitanie 2% currently infected, Brittany 2% population that has been Nouvelle-Aquitaine 2% Guadeloupe 1% up from 6.5% infected as of 5 May is shown Martinique 1% here, split by region within Mayotte 1% three weeks ago Guyane 0% each country. Lombardy 31% Aosta 24% About 10% of the population Emilia-Romagna 18% has been infected in the Liguria 17% Piedmont 16% selected regions, a figure Trentino-South Tyrol 15% Marche 13% which has been very flat over Veneto 7% the last three weeks due to Abruzzo 6% Italy: 10.6% Friuli-Venezia Giulia 5% strict lockdowns. Tuscany 5% Apulia 2% currently infected, Lazio 2% More than 23% of the Umbria 2% up from 10.0% Sardinia 2% population has been infected Molise 2% three weeks ago. Campania 1% in two regions in Italy and two Sicily 1% in Spain. These areas could Calabria 1% Basilicata 1% potentially achieve herd Castile-La Mancha 24% immunity after a potential Community of Madrid 23% La Rioja 20% second outbreak. Castile and Leon 14% Navarre 13% Catalonia 13% Basque Country 11% Aragon 11% Spain: 10.0% Extremadura 8% Asturias 5% Valencian Community 5% currently infected, Galicia 4% Balearic Islands 3% up from 9.5% Andalusia 3% Region of Murcia 2% three weeks ago. Canary Islands 1% Ceuta 1% Melilla 0%
Source: Rystad Energy Covid-19 model; Worldometer; country health agencies; New York Times true fatality rates
10 Key country focus Most European countries have loosened measures and increased mobility in April
Milan Madrid Paris Berlin Vienna Prague
Government Loosened measures Spain entered “phase The lockdown has Retail shops were Austria pioneered the Measures started to be measures on 4 May, entering the zero” of its de-escalation been extended to 11 allowed to reopen from reopening process in gradually lifted on 9 “second phase” and plan on 4 May, allowing May. 19 March. Europe, gradually lifting April, with the allowing people to go people to go out. Afterwards, some measures from mid- reopening of some out. Bars and Non-essential workers in shops and primary Hairdressers, April. non-essential stores. restaurants have industries like schools will be museums and some Other stores, and opened for takeout. manufacturing and allowed to reopen. schools reopened on 4 As of 1 May, gatherings universities reopened Some manufacturing construction are May. of up to 10 people are on 27 May. industries have gradually returning to permitted and shops reopened. work. can reopen.
15% Traffic* 2019 traffic level (7-day MA 5% vs. 2019) -5%
-15%
-25%
Country traffic -35%
-45%
-55% City traffic -65% 24-Mar10-Mar 4-Apr 29-Apr 10-Mar 4-Apr 29-Apr 10-Mar 4-Apr 29-Apr8-Apr 10-Mar 4-Apr 29-Apr 10-Mar 4-Apr 29-Apr 10-Mar 4-Apr23-Apr 29-Apr
*Traffic includes light-duty vehicle traffic only. Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis; Rystad Energy Global City Traffic Database; TomTom Traffic Index; Google Maps
11 Key country focus Herd immunity close in parts of New York and New Jersey
Share of the population infected as of 5 May 2020
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
New York Bronx 49% New York Queens 47% New York Kings 41% New York Nassau 32% New York Rockland 31% The true share of the New York Richmond 31% population that has been New York Westchester 28% New York New York 25% infected in the US states of New York Suffolk 21% New York, New Jersey and New York Orange 16% New York Putnam 11% Washington as of 5 May is New York Oneida 8% New York: 26% shown here, split by county. New York Dutchess 7% New York Columbia 7% currently infected, 26% of the population in New New York Erie 6% New York Orleans 5% up from 20% York state and 22% in New New York Sullivan 5% Jersey have been infected. New York Steuben 5% three weeks ago. New York Lewis 5% New York Ulster 4% In New York City, counties New York Tioga 4% such as the Bronx, Queens New York Warren 4% All other counties in New York with a lower share of infected and Kings (Brooklyn) have New Jersey Essex 40% seen between 41% and 49% New Jersey Union 33% New Jersey Hudson 32% of the population likely New Jersey Bergen 32% infected, which means these New Jersey Passaic 31% New Jersey Morris 22% counties are likely to achieve New Jersey Somerset 22% herd immunity soon. New Jersey Warren 20% New Jersey Sussex 20% There are no other counites New Jersey Middlesex 19% New Jersey Ocean 18% New Jersey: 22% in the US with more than 5% New Jersey Mercer 17% of the population infected. I.e. New Jersey Monmouth 15% currently infected, New Jersey Burlington 8% other states and counties risk New Jersey Camden 8% up from 17% experiencing severe New Jersey Hunterdon 7% New Jersey Cape May 6% three weeks ago. outbreaks in the future and/or New Jersey Salem 6% seeing the continuation of New Jersey Atlantic 5% New Jersey Gloucester 4% All other counties in New Jersey with a lower share of infected rather strong social distancing measures. Washington Benton 5% Washington: 2.9% Washington King 5% Washington Yakima 5% All other counties in Washington state and the rest of the US currently infected, With a lower share of infected up from 2.2%
Source: Rystad Energy Covid-19 model; Worldometer; country health agencies; New York Times true fatality rates three weeks ago.
12 Key country focus Activity levels in the US are picking up pace amid loosening measures
New York Illinois Texas California Florida Washington
Government Stay at home order in Stay at home order in Gradual reopening: Stay at home order in Gradual reopening: Stay at home order in measures effect since 22 March, effect since 21 March, retail stores, effect since 19 March. retail stores and effect since 23 March, extended to 15 May. extended to 30 May. restaurants and restaurants can extended to 31 May. entertainment activities operate at 25% Restrictions regarding have been allowed to capacity. outdoor activities reopen with limited specifically have been capacity. Stay at home order in in place from 1 May. effect from 03 April until Stay at home order in 4 May. effect from 2 April until 30 April. 15% Traffic* 2019 traffic level (7-day MA 5% vs. 2019) -5%
-15%
-25%
Seattle -35% State traffic -45%
Chicago Houston Los Miami -55% New York Angeles City -65% 24-Mar24-Mar 13-Apr 3-May 24-Mar 13-Apr 3-May 24-Mar 13-Apr 3-May8-Apr 24-Mar 13-Apr 3-May 24-Mar 13-Apr 3-May 24-Mar 13-Apr23-Apr 3-May
*Traffic includes light-duty vehicle traffic only. Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis; Rystad Energy Global City Traffic Database; TomTom Traffic Index; Google Maps
13 Table of Contents
Executive summary Outbreak status and outlook Impact on oil demand • Global overview • Ground transportation and road fuels Impact on the oil and gas industry Methodology
14 Global overview Global oil demand recovers by 6 million bpd in May vs April
Global oil demand impact analysis Covid-19 by region, levels and changes vs. pre-virus estimates Thousand barrels per day
Remaining barrels 100,000 We see a V-shaped route in oil demand, reaching a low point in April 80,000 2020 and improving in May. However, further recovery has some downside risks into 2021. 60,000 Average demand for 2020 is expected at 88.7 million bpd, a drop of 10.9% 40,000 from 2019. Europe is the worst hit, with demand 20,000 down 33.5% year-over-year in April, and on track for a 12.5% demand 0 decline for 2020 as a whole.
Lost barrels About 4 billon barrels will be removed 5,000 from global oil demand during 2020. 0 More than half of this decline comes from areas outside the main demand -5,000 pools of East Asia, Europe and North -10,000 America. In our downside scenario, we see -15,000 global demand impact remaining -20,000 East Asia Europe North America Rest of World down by 10.5 million bpd in December 2020 and 4.8 million bpd in December -25,000 2019 Pre-virus Mitigation Previous 2021. -30,000
Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis
15 Global overview Road fuel is down 11% for the year, jet fuel down 33% and all other fuels down 7% vs 2019
Global oil demand impact analysis Covid-19 by fuel, levels and changes vs. pre-virus estimates Thousand barrels per day
100,000
80,000
60,000 Global demand for road fuel was 40,000 31.7 million bpd in April, jet fuel demand was 2.1 million bpd, and 20,000 demand for all other fuels stood at 37.9 million bpd. 0
About 16.1 million bpd was removed from road fuel demand in 0 April, while the decline was 5.2 million bpd for jet fuel and 7 million -5,000 bpd for all other fuels. -10,000 -15,000 Road fuels Jet fuels Other fuels -20,000 2019 Mitigation Previous -25,000 Pre-virus -30,000
Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis
16 Ground transportation and road fuels Rystad Energy Global City Traffic Database Traffic increasing in the US, China remains flat at around -18% covers road traffic in 1,200+ cities and 150+ countries Traffic levels versus normal levels for last 7 days Percent difference, year-on-year, all days Africa Americas Asia & Australia Europe & Middle East
-90% -60% -30% 0% 30% -90% -60% -30% 0% -90% -60% -30% 0% 30% -90% -60% -30% 0% 30% Rwanda Bolivia Afghanistan Iraq Uganda Peru Bangladesh Andorra Mauritius Colombia Sri Lanka Ireland Nigeria Haiti Myanmar Bahrain Botswana Bahamas Philippines Cyprus Congo Panama Turkmenistan Albania DR Congo Venezuela Singapore France Morocco El Salvador Pakistan United Kingdom Mauritania Ecuador Tajikistan Greece Tunisia Guinea Malaysia San Marino Liberia Costa Rica India Italy Libya Dominican Republic Thailand Israel Niger Puerto Rico Kyrgyzstan UAE Cameroon Paraguay Uzbekistan Portugal Lesotho Brazil New Zealand Jordan Malawi Guatemala Kazakhstan Russia Burkina Faso Jamaica Indonesia Kuwait Burundi Canada Georgia Lebanon Zimbabwe Mexico Japan Spain Namibia United States Armenia Belgium Gambia Chile Australia Saudi Arabia Mali Honduras Azerbaijan Moldova Senegal Argentina China Romania Algeria Nicaragua Cambodia Luxembourg Sierra Leone Uruguay Mongolia Montenegro Kenya Vietnam Serbia Benin China, Hong Kong… Iran Angola Laos Turkey Cote d'Ivoire Papua New Guinea Estonia Tanzania Ukraine Ghana Switzerland Mozambique Hungary Egypt Qatar Ethiopia Oman Madagascar Palestine Togo Netherlands South Africa Belarus Gabon Norway Zambia Finland Guinea-Bissau Slovakia Austria Poland Previous week Bosnia and… Current week Slovenia Germany Sweden Iceland Czechia Lithuania Latvia Croatia Denmark Bulgaria Liechtenstein Source: Rystad Energy Global City Traffic Database; TomTom Traffic Index; Google Maps; Rystad Energy research and analysis
17 Summary data table for total liquids demand in a Covid-19 “effective prevention” case
MMbbl/d Change year-on-year 2020 2020 Q1 2020 2020 Q1 2019 2020 2021 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q April May June 2020 2021 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q April May June Global 99.5 88.7 98.8 91.7 77.7 90.2 95.2 71.8 77.7 83.5 -10.9% 11.4% -7.6% -21.2% -10.0% -5.0% -27.1% -21.3% -15.0% Road 47.4 42.1 47.1 42.8 36.2 43.5 45.9 31.7 36.8 40.0 -11.1% 11.8% -8.3% -23.6% -9.2% -3.5% -33.0% -22.3% -15.6% Aviation 7.2 4.8 6.9 5.7 2.3 4.9 6.2 2.1 1.9 3.0 -33.6% 43.2% -17.8% -67.7% -35.0% -12.9% -70.5% -72.9% -59.9% Other 44.9 41.8 44.8 43.2 39.1 41.8 43.1 37.9 38.9 40.5 -7.0% 7.2% -5.4% -10.8% -6.5% -5.3% -13.8% -11.8% -6.8%
United States 20.5 18.3 20.3 19.2 15.6 18.8 19.8 13.9 15.6 17.1 -10.5% 10.6% -5.4% -23.4% -9.2% -3.9% -30.8% -22.8% -16.8% Road 11.2 10.0 11.1 10.3 8.5 10.5 10.8 7.1 8.8 9.6 -10.9% 10.4% -6.2% -25.4% -8.2% -3.3% -36.9% -22.5% -17.1% Aviation 1.7 1.2 1.6 1.5 0.6 1.2 1.5 0.5 0.4 0.8 -32.0% 33.3% -10.6% -67.1% -32.5% -15.8% -72.9% -75.5% -53.2% Other 7.5 7.1 7.6 7.4 6.5 7.1 7.5 6.3 6.4 6.7 -4.9% 7.1% -3.1% -9.4% -5.3% -2.0% -10.7% -10.2% -7.2%
China* 15.1 13.8 15.7 12.7 13.7 14.3 14.4 13.5 13.5 14.2 -8.7% 13.7% -15.8% -7.3% -5.5% -6.0% -6.9% -12.8% -1.9% Road 6.1 5.6 6.5 4.8 5.5 6.0 6.2 5.2 5.4 5.8 -8.0% 16.1% -22.6% -7.7% -3.1% 1.4% -9.8% -13.3% 0.5% Aviation 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.5 -28.9% 50.2% -35.4% -45.7% -25.4% -10.0% -41.8% -50.8% -44.4% Other 8.1 7.5 8.2 7.4 7.8 7.5 7.4 7.8 7.7 7.9 -6.8% 8.8% -8.6% -2.7% -4.9% -10.9% -1.1% -8.4% 1.6%
Europe 14.2 12.5 13.7 13.1 10.4 12.8 13.6 9.6 10.3 11.4 -12.5% 10.2% -7.3% -26.6% -12.4% -3.8% -33.5% -26.5% -19.6% Road 7.0 6.3 6.8 6.4 5.3 6.5 6.8 4.6 5.3 5.9 -11.0% 8.5% -5.7% -24.9% -10.2% -3.4% -34.7% -24.0% -16.0% Aviation 1.5 0.9 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 -39.2% 55.0% -14.1% -84.8% -42.2% -10.2% -88.4% -88.2% -78.4% Other 5.7 5.3 5.5 5.5 4.9 5.3 5.5 4.8 4.8 5.1 -7.5% 4.7% -7.6% -13.1% -6.7% -2.8% -18.1% -13.3% -7.5%
*Includes Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis
18 Table of Contents
Executive summary Outbreak status and outlook Impact on oil demand Impact on the oil and gas industry • Global market outlook • Market segment focus Methodology
19 Global market outlook: US US commercial crude inventories are approaching all-time high Million barrels 800 Reported working storage capacity (refineries, tanks, 750 5yr avg. (2015-2019) Remaining storage to all-time high pipeline fill & crude-in- transit) 2016 MidWest 5,404 2017 700 West Coast* 5,091 2018 East Coast 9,185 2019 Cushing 6,042 Reported available 650 2020 Gulf Coast 585 commercial storage Forecast Rocky Mountains 1,459 capacity Capacity 27,766 255.5 million barrels 600 All time high all regions combined All-time high for all 550 regions: 550 million bbl
500
450
Commercial storage 400 capacity in use 527.6 million barrels 350
300 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis, EIA * West coast was higher in the 1990s, but those tanks are likely not operational
20 Global market outlook Global floating storage has apparently stalled, as contango weakens Million barrels
Aframax floating storage 200 Suezmax floating storage
VLCC floating storage
150 Total
100
50
0
Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis, Refinitiv
21 Market segment focus: E&P The upstream industry will generate $700 billion less cash to governments this year
Global income to governments from upstream activity and Brent oil price (RHS) Billion USD USD/bbl Falling oil and gas prices will mean 2,500 120 lower cash from the upstream industry to various host governments. Government take Brent oil price (rhs) Rystad Energy expects total upstream cash to the governments 100 will be reduced by $700 billion from 2,000 2019 levels, or 55%.
80 1,500
60 2,280 2,186 1,000 1,982 40 1,515 1,291 1,028 500 948 20 721 573
0 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Government income also includes income by NOCs. Source: Rystad Energy UCube
22 Market segment focus: E&P OPEC countries are most exposed to lower oil prices
2019 government income from oil and gas as a percentage of 2019 total GDP
0 The chart to the right depicts the 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% reduction in government income from USD oil and gas in 2020 compared to Venezuela Norway 2019. It also shows how government illion
b -20 income contributed to a country’s Qatar total GDP in 2019.
Mexico Kuwait Saudi Arabia's 2020 income from oil Iran -40 and gas is expected to be $110 billion lower than in 2019. In 2019 the UAE income from oil and gas made up close 30% of total GDP. UAE Iraq -60 OPEC countries are the most exposed to income from oil and gas are the. For UAE, Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, income from E&P -80 Russia activities made up more than 25% of total GDP.
-100
Saudi Arabia -120
-140 2020 reduction in government income compared to to compared 2019, income in government 2020 reduction
*The estimates assume a 2020 Brent oil price of $34 per bbl. Gvt income also includes income by NOCs. Source: Rystad Energy UCube, IMF
23 Table of Contents
Executive summary Outbreak status and outlook Impact on oil demand Impact on the oil and gas industry Methodology
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25 OIL MARKET WEEKLY – Demand report, a weekly report with: • An overview of global oil demand • Oil demand impact in two COVID-19 mitigation scenarios • Impact of oil demand in aviation, ground transportation and road fuels
OIL MARKET WEEKLY – Balances report: • A weekly Commentary with the latest oil market observations • A weekly Executive Summary on the oil market balances, oil supply and demand, and the overall oil market view
OIL MARKET DASHBOARDS and Excel data on: • Oil demand analysis dashboard: split by country, transport type, aviation • COVID-19 dashboard: oil demand impacting two COVID-19 mitigation scenarios
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