FLOATING OFFSHORE WIND CABLES ASSESSING THE SIZE OF A FAST-GROWING MARKET
ALEXANDER DOBROWEN FLØTRE, VP & PRODUCT MANAGER OFFSHORE WIND Rystad Energy
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Source: Rystad Energy RenewableCube Agenda
Offshore wind market outlook
Floating wind: The path towards commerciality
Cables: Sizing the market for floating wind Agenda
Offshore wind market outlook
Floating wind: The path towards commerciality
Cables: Sizing the market for floating wind Capacity build-up driven historically driven by Europe, but China is ramping up fast
Cumulative capacity by country/region Gigawatts CAGR 2010-2020 = 26% 35 31.9 Capacity by country, 2020 (%)
30 Denmark Other Asia Other 27.7 5 % 1 % Europe 7.2 Netherlands 1 % 6 % 25 Belgium UK 1.9 7 % 33 % 21.2 2.3 20 China 23 % 1.7 Germany 16.5 24 % 15 7.7 12.5 11.7
10 7.9 6.9 4.8 5 10.4 3.1 3.4
0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Rystad Energy Offshore Wind Dashboard; Rystad Energy research and analysis Global offshore wind capacity expected to more than triple from 2020 to 2025
Annual capacity additions by region (LHS), and global cumulative capacity (RHS) Gigawatts 30 120 109 GW Cumulative (RHS) Americas 25 100 Thousands Asia (ex. China) ~3.5X China Europe 20 80
15 60 Cumulative cap.: 31.9 GW
10 40
5 20
0 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Source: Rystad Energy Offshore Wind Dashboard; Rystad Energy research and analysis Europe and Asia to be equally large markets during the second half of this decade
Cumulative capacity by continent Gigawatts
250
Europe Asia 200 America N America S 45% Australia Middle East 150
100
46% 50
0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Source: Rystad Energy OffshoreWindCube Agenda
Offshore wind market outlook
Floating wind: The path towards commerciality
Cables: Sizing the market for floating wind Floating wind to unlock large potential in undeveloped areas with deeper waters
Norway
Scotland (UK) South Korea France, (Donghae) Spain & Portugal US West Coast Japan
The wind index heat map shows offshore zones in water depths above 60 meters. The colors, ranging from lighter (lower score) to darker (higher score) is an equally weighted average of three factors: Average offshore wind speed at 50 meters above sea levels, GDP per capita and population density. The two latter factors are used a proxies for power-, or energy demand.
Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis Grounded offshore wind competitive, floating wind requires scale to see similar trajectory
LCOE for European offshore wind farms* from 2010 to 2030 Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) by start-up year (EUR/MWh)
250 Operational Sanctioned Hywind Scotland Future estimates projects projects Floating
200
Hywind Tampen
150
France 2021/2022 floating tenders Grounded
100
EOLFI expert avg
BVG 2018 EOLFI expert avg
BVG 2018 50
Ambition for Dogger Bank floating wind
0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
*Selected projects only. Data points from stated LCOE with transmission, strike prices or calculated based on 2012 investment cost with a WACC of 8%. Includes transmission to shore. Source: IEA 2019, IRENA 2018, Equinor, BVG Associates 2018, EOLFI 2018, Catapult, Carbonbrief, Rystad Energy research and analysis Floating wind to surpass 7 GW by 2030, as industry works towards commercialization
Global installed base of floating wind capacity, by region Gigawatts (GWac)
Pilot / 20 Industrialization / Commercial Proof of Mid-scale utility-scale stage concept 18 Project size: Project size: Project size: Project size: 0-50 MW 50-200 MW 200-500 MW 500+ MW 16 CAGR: 14 18%
12
10
8 CAGR: 51% 6
4 CAGR: 38% CAGR: 2 120%
0 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034
Europe Asia ex. China Americas RoW
Source: Rystad Energy Offshore Wind Dashboard, Rystad Energy research and analysis Floating wind will play a small but increasingly important role this decade
Annual capacity additions by foundation type Gigawatts (GWac)
Floating wind’s share of Floating wind’s share of installed capacity, 2020-25: installed capacity, 2026-30: 1% 5%
30
25
20
15
10
5
0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Grounded Floating
Source: Rystad Energy Offshore Wind Dashboard Agenda
Offshore wind market outlook
Floating wind: The path towards commerciality
Cables: Sizing the market for floating wind Largest growth in export cables as offshore wind developments move farther from shore
Global annual additions of offshore wind cables by type Length of offshore wind cables, thousand km
12 11.1
9.9 10 9.2 8.5 8.3 Array cables 8 CAGR 2021-2030: 15% 7.2 6.6 6.3 6
4.9 5.0
4 3.1 Export cables CAGR 2021-2030: 22% 2.2 1.9 2.0 1.9 2
0.5
0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Source: Rystad Energy Offshore Wind Dashboard Growth in cable additions for floating wind to outpace bottom-fixed – albeit from a low base
Global annual additions of offshore wind cables for floating and grounded offshore wind Length of offshore wind cables, thousand km
12 11.1 Floating CAGR 2021-2030: 32% 9.9 10 9.2 8.5 8.3 8 7.2 6.6 6.3 6
4.9 5.0 Grounded CAGR 2021-2030: 17% 4 3.1
2.2 1.9 2.0 1.9 2
0.5
0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Source: Rystad Energy Offshore Wind Dashboard China to drive short term cable growth, UK drives large share of the European market
Global annual additions of offshore wind cables by country/continent Length of offshore wind cables, thousand km
12 UK 11.1 Other Europe 9.9 10 Asia 9.2 Americas 8.5 8.3 RoW 8 7.2 6.6 6.3 6 4.9 5.0
4 3.1
2.2 1.9 2.0 1.9 2
0.5
0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Source: Rystad Energy Offshore Wind Dashboard Global floating wind to accelerate towards 2050, could make up 10% of capacity by 2050
Cumulative capacity by foundation type Gigawatts
1000
Grounded Floating 900 10%
800
700
600
500
90% 400
300
200
100
0 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: Rystad Energy OffshoreWindCube Floating offshore wind expected to see strong ramp-up in infrastructure demand
Floating offshore 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050 wind segment
7.5 Annual avg. capacity 5.0 additions (GW) 3.0
Thousands 2.0
417 334 Annual avg. turbine 250 200 additions (count)
Dynamic Static* 754 605 Annual avg. array cable 454 364 additions (km)
1,539
Annual avg. export 878 cable additions (km) 432 203
*Dynamic cable could be used for entire inter-array cable scope due to costs and technical challenges. Note: Indicative numbers only. Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis Floating wind with smaller installation scope than grounded, but higher operational costs
Indicative lifecycle cost distribution – Floating vs. grounded Share (%)
GROUNDED FLOATING
Turbine Operations and manufacturing maintenance 22 % 25 % Turbine Operations and manufacturing maintenance 31 % 37 % Development & Foundation Project mgmt manufacturing 4 % 18 % Other installation 16 % Foundation manufacturing Development & Project mgmt Foundation 10 % Mooring Cable 2 % Cable installation 3 % Other manufacturing manufacturing 3 % Turbine manufacturing 5 % 8 % installation Other 5 % 1 % Other Turbine manufacturing installation installation 6 % 3 % 1 %
Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis FOW cable market could surpass current O&G umbilical market by during 2040s
Annual average cable manufacturing expenditures vs. O&G umbilical expenditure* BUSD
2.5
2.2
Annual avg. O&G umbilicals manufacturing expenditures (2021-2030) Thousands 2 Annual avg. FOW cable manufacturing expenditures
1.5 1.5 1.3
1.1 1 0.9
0.5
0 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050 O&G umbilicals market (2021-2030)
* Note: Indicative cable expenditures only. Not one to one comparable markets. Source: Rystad Energy ServiceDemandCube; Rystad Energy research and analysis Rystad Energy is an independent energy consulting services and business intelligence data firm offering global databases, strategy advisory and research products for energy companies and suppliers, investors, investment banks, organizations, and governments. Rystad Energy’s headquarters are located in Oslo, Norway.
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