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2021 RYSTAD ENERGY TRANSITION REPORT, HYDROGEN EDITION Be Among the First to Access Rystad Energy’S Hydrogencube RYSTAD ENERGY TRANSITION REPORT FEBRUARY 2021 FREE EDITION HYDROGEN SOCIETY RYSTAD ENERGY TRANSITION REPORT, HYDROGEN EDITION The Rystad Energy Transition Report The Rystad Energy Transition Report series leverages the full breadth of our data expertise to explore what a future decarbonized energy system may look like through three conceptual societies. Each society serves as a model primarily dependent upon one of the technologies currently competing to become dominant on the pathway to net-zero – carbon capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen and batteries. Our hydrogen society illuminates the tremendous decarbonizing potential of H2 across four key demand segments: transportation, industry, power & buildings, and energy. In the following free edition, we discuss some key developments and highlights. In the full report, we dive deeply into the topic, covering key end-use applications for hydrogen, the demand forecast up to 2050 in addition to hydrogen supply and its competitiveness. To gain access to the complete report, we encourage you to contact us at your earliest convenience. We look forward to sharing our Battery Report with you in the next month. ENERGY TRANSITION REPORT 2 HYDROGEN SOCIETY FEBRUARY 2021 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Hydrogen – set to quintuple by 2050 Our energy transition story continues this times as much as H2 production today. month as we explore the decarbonizing Such a massive demand increase would potential of hydrogen in our Hydrogen require a ramp up of supply from both blue Society. Hydrogen has received much and green hydrogen. Green H2 has the attention in recent years as a potentially deepest decarbonizing potential, but blue carbon-free commodity with many of the H2 can utilize existing production pathways same advantages of traditional fossil fuel; it and can achieve near-zero hydrogen when offers good energy density and can be paired with supplementary carbon capture applied to a variety of sectors. Yet a true and storage (CCS) mechanisms. hydrogen economy has yet to take off, hindered by economic constraints and the Given current infrastructure and production immaturity of many end-use hydrogen pathways, this means that blue H2 is more technologies. cost competitive in all regions and could be less costly to scale quickly than green H2. In this edition of the Rystad Energy However, the cost of green H2 is primarily Transition Report these obstacles are driven by the price of the electricity deconstructed, revealing that 51% of global consumed in the electrolysis process, and CO2 emissions are fully or partially renewable energy prices are falling addressable with hydrogen. This amounts precipitously as renewable generation to carbon savings of over 20 gigatons (Gt). soars. In the past five years alone, We begin to understand this potential by operational costs related to wind and solar examining hydrogen’s applicability to four have fallen by 58% and 19% respectively, key demand sectors comprised of 10 end- while capacity from wind and solar has used segments. In our Transportation risen 100% in the same timeframe. chapter, hydrogen-powered Fuel Cell Assuming the price of renewable electricity Electric Vehicles are hindered by fierce continues to fall, the only remaining competition from Battery Electric Vehicles, economic hurdle for green H2 will be the while aviation and shipping benefit from capital expenditure required for hydrogen products such as ammonia and development, a cost that will also decline synthetic jet fuel. In our Industry chapter, as learning curves continue to play out and ammonia and methanol derived from green infrastructure becomes increasingly H2 take center stage as powerful tools in standardized. As the costs of green H2 fall, the fertilizer and plastic markets, while H2 it will become increasingly attractive has direct applications in steel making. relative to its blue H2 counterpart. Hydrogen could have a role to play in grid balancing, as discussed in the Power and The nuances of this price discussion are Buildings chapter, while the need for explored further in the Competitiveness of hydrogen in the Refineries chapter is Future Supply chapter. Regardless of robust but faces long-term decline, falling in whether blue or green will color the future tandem with decreasing demand for oil of hydrogen, one thing is clear: hydrogen products. will be a key solution driving the energy transition forward. Together, these end-use segments would consume 340 Mt of hydrogen in 2050, five Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis ENERGY TRANSITION REPORT 3 HYDROGEN SOCIETY FEBRUARY 2021 Contents Executive summary 2 Introduction to hydrogen 4 Key end-use applications for hydrogen 9 Hydrogen demand to 2050 30 Hydrogen supply and competitiveness 32 *This free edition report includes 16 of 32 pages that are available in the full report Add picture Photo: Ørsted ENERGY TRANSITION REPORT 4 HYDROGEN SOCIETY FEBRUARY 2021 INTRODUCTION TO HYDROGEN The Hydrogen Society In our inaugural Rystad Energy Transition elements of all three, but with varying Report from December 2020, we degrees of technological penetration. introduced the three Rystad Energy Through the first quarter of 2021, we will Societies: CCS, Hydrogen and Battery. continue to elaborate on the status quo of These societies are conceptual futures each technology, the direction each is wherein each of the three key technologies heading, and the pace of development. becomes the dominant supplement to Regardless of where we end up as a global renewable power towards a decarbonized society, each technology is already vying to energy system. Each society will contain achieve winning market share. Key dynamics of the Hydrogen Society: • Continued reductions in renewable energy cost and subsequent continued ramp up in renewable Hydrogen Society generation improves the economics of green In a Hydrogen Society, the hydrogen projects. overcapacity in renewable • A policy-led increase in green hydrogen generation and cost reduction in production creates abundant, low carbon electrolyzers would result in hydrogen to be utilized in decarbonizing hard- competitive green hydrogen. The to-abate sectors. establishment of a widespread hydrogen economy would • Large scale consumption of hydrogen increase demand for blue accelerates learning curves across the hydrogen in addition to hydrogen economy and improves green. This demand increase, hydrogen’s efficiency in end-use coupled with the mainstreaming of applications. ? hydrogen pipeline grids, would • If combined with higher carbon support everything from pricing, we would likely see We are here transportation to power and sufficient scale in CCS heating. implementation to reduce ? ? the cost of CCS Focus of this report technologies and improve the competitiveness of blue hydrogen, in addition to green. Battery Society CCS Society Within a Battery Society, battery costs continue A CCS society is predicated on the introduction to plummet, allowing for cheap grid storage that of global carbon taxes and improved can deal with intraday intermittency, as well as cost/economies of scale for CCS technologies. supplying electricity for days. In this scenario In this scenario, CCS is deployed on a massive there are no substantial supply-side bottlenecks. scale in everything from industry and blue Cheap batteries also support the rapid hydrogen to the power sector and direct air electrification of transportation and would (in capture. The quick adoption of carbon taxes combination with cheap solar, wind, and a ensures a relatively quick adoption rate for CCS strengthened power grid) become a lethal blow technologies, alleviating carbon budgets, and to the fossil industry. CCS and hydrogen would supporting prolonged business as usual for the become niche technologies within industry and fossil industry. Batteries would be largely certain parts of transportation. constrained to the lighter segments of the transportation sector, and blue hydrogen would play a pivotal role in decarbonizing industry and hard-to-abate transport. Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis ENERGY TRANSITION REPORT 5 HYDROGEN SOCIETY FEBRUARY 2021 INTRODUCTION TO HYDROGEN Hydrogen decarbonization strategies rely on both blue and green hydrogen Type Description Pros Cons Grey Today, almost all • Well suited to large- hydrogen production scale production due hydrogen • High CO2 emissions is grey, meaning it is to abundant access of in production produced from fossil natural gas • Exposed to fuels. Grey H is • Cost competitive 2 increasing CO used in the chemical • Production technology 2 taxes industry, fertilizer already exists, and it production, and in is well established in petroleum refineries. the industry Similarly, blue Blue • Carbon emissions • Dependent on the hydrogen originates hydrogen from grey hydrogen further development from fossil fuels, but production could be of CCS technology, production of blue reduced substantially as well as H involves carbon 2 if carbon capture and transportation and capture and storage. storage is applied storage. Current Blue hydrogen could • Currently, blue H is technology is not become an 2 cheaper and “greener” 100% carbon-free important pathway than electrolysis towards • There is investment • Blue H has the decarbonizing the 2 risk as green potential to scale energy system by hydrogen becomes quickly as existing suppling sectors that cheaper and might production capacity is have few sources of eventually retrofitted with CCS outcompete blue H2 H2 supply. Green Green hydrogen
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