KONKURRANSEKRAFT OG VERDIER PÅ NORSK SOKKEL

Jo Husebye, Partner Rystad Energy

Innlegg Klimafrokost: Hvordan avrunde oljealderen med stil? 28. Februar, 2019 Oslo Rystad Energy provide bottom up databases covering more than 65.000 upstream projects

APPROACH AND HERITAGE: A BOTTOM-UP DATABASE OF UPSTREAM ACTIVITY

Rystad Energy UCube A microcosmos of the upstream oil and gas industry

* Map shows global remaining oil and gas resources, split by location of projects. Circle size indicates amount of resources.

3 Agenda

Cost competitiveness of Norwegian oil and gas Value of remaining oil and gas

4 While shale captures most of the net growth, offshore largely maintains market shares

Global liquids production split by supply source Million bbl per day

100 Shale Oil Sands 80 Offshore deep

60 Offshore shallow water

40

Conventional onshore 20

0 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Production mix 2017 Net new liquids 2012-2017 1 % 3 % 0 % 11 % 12 % 12 %

10 % 97 7.5 MMbbl/d 59 % MMbbl/d 18 %

75 %

Source: UCube

5 NCS with highly competitive lifting costs compared to offshore peers

Opex for all offshore assets in 2017, key offshore regions USD/boe 120

Fields with operational expenditures per UKCS boe over 50USD may be in danger of shutting down production. US GoM Brazil 100 MX GoM

80 NCS

60 West Africa Malaysia

40

20 India

0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Accumulated 2017 production (million boe)

For fields with start-up in 2016, 2017, production and opex from peak-production is used Source: Rystad Energy UCube; Rystad Energy research and analysis

7 45% of contingent resources on NCS competitive at prices below 40 USD/bbl

Share of contingent resources by break-even oil price group Percentage 75%

• High infrastructure 50% density in North Sea allows for cheaper developments, utilizing existing processing and transport infrastructure

25% • Deep water regions more expensive to develop

0% 20-40 40-60 60-80 Above 80 MX GoM NCS UKCS US GoM India Brazil West Africa Malaysia

Source: Rystad Energy UCube; Rystad Energy research and analysis.

9 Agenda

Cost competitiveness of Norwegian oil and gas Value of remaining oil and gas

10 NCS resources: 47% produced, 25% yet to be found, 28% in fields and discoveries

Resources on NCS by lifecycle (31.12.2018)

Produced red

• Reserves – includes remaining resources in Undiscovered fields and discoveries erves 25 % under development

• Contingent resources – 15.6 include discovered non- sanctioned resources in billion Sm3 Produced fields and discoveries oil eq. 47 %

Reserves & contingent resources 28 %

Source. Ressursregnskapet per 31st of December 2018 (NPD). Reserves include resource class 1,2 & 3 (in production, approved PDO or decided by licensees). Continent resource exclude uncommercial resources.

11 ~ 3400 billion NOK in value* from remaining resources in fields and discoveries @ 60 USD/bbl

Net present value of remaining resources Billion NOK • Oil account for ~2/3 of remaining values

• ~90% of remaining values in producing 40 USD/boe fields and fields under development, only 10% 60 USD/boe in non-sanctioned discoveries 80 USD/boe 5 265 • Value as discounted free 3 717 cash flow to companies 3 393 and government take, with 10% nominal 2 284 discount rate, excluding 1 838 1 548 undiscovered resources. 1 071 1 109 767 • 4% real discount rate lift value @ 60 USD/bbl to Oil Gas Total by ~ 30%.

*Value defined as net present value 1.1.2019 of government take and free cash flow to companies with nominal discount rate of 10%, excluding undiscovered resources Source: Rystad Energy Ucube

12 25% of remaining resource are undiscovered, what are the values found here?

Resources on NCS by lifecycle (31.12.2018)

Produced red

• Reserves – includes remaining resources in Undiscovered fields and discoveries erves 25 % under development

• Contingent resources – 15.6 include discovered non- sanctioned resources in billion Sm3 Produced fields and discoveries oil eq. 47 %

Reserves & contingent resources 28 %

Source. Ressursregnskapet per 31st of December 2018 (NPD). Reserves include resource class 1,2 & 3 (in production, approved PDO or decided by licensees). Continent resource exclude uncommercial resources.

13 ~50/50 gas vs. oil, with ~2/3 of remaining undiscovered resources in the Barents Sea

Undiscovered resources Million Sm3 o.e

Nordsjøen 4000 480 3500 245 Norskehavet 345 3000 2130 395 Barentshavet Gas Sør 2500 480 2000

685 Barentshavet 1500 Nord

1000 1870 825

500 Liquids 545 0

Source: Ressursrapporten 2018 (NPD)

14 Barents Sea gas account for ~30% of undisc. resources, LoVeSe ~5% (part of Norskehavet)

Undiscovered resources Million Sm3 o.e

Nordsjøen 4000 480 3500 LoVeSe ~200 245 Norskehavet million Sm3 o.e 345 3000 2130 395 Barentshavet Gas Sør 2500 480 2000

685 Barentshavet 1500 Nord

1000 1870 825

500 Liquids 545 0

Source: Ressursrapporten 2018 (NPD)

15 No such thing as precise valuation estimates for undiscovered resources…

NPV distribution for LoVeSe resources Key observations:

• Expected net present value 105 billion NOK • 10 USD/boe of undiscovered resource (200 Sm3 o.e)

• Limited downside relative to upside potential

• Significant geological uncertainty • Resource estimate • Resource distribution • Resource type (oil vs gas)

• Set of underlying assumptions: • 2010 oil price prognosis of 80-100 USD/boe • Exchange rate 6 NOK/USD • Development costs • Real discount rate 4% • Timing – when discovered • ++

• 5 USD/boe used as proxy at current price level

Source: «Petroleumsressurser i havområdene utenfor Lofoten, Vesterålen og Senja», OD (2010)

16 Significant value potential from undiscovered resource, reflected in ongoing exploration activity

Resources on NCS by lifecycle (31.12.2018) Indicative value potential: Produced red • @ 5 USD/boe remaining undiscovered

Undiscovered erves • 1 200 billion NOK 25 % • 5% LoVeSe • 30% Barents Sea gas Historical free cash flow to oil 15.6 companies and tax income Produced billion Sm3 47 % • Oljefondet with current value oil eq. of 8 800 billion NOK Present value @ 60 USD/bbl:

Reserves & • 3 400 billion NOK contingent Valuation figures does not resources 28 % include profits and tax income • 15 USD/boe remaining from the supplier industry, discovered which is typically higher per boe for undeveloped resources

17 THANK YOU

Jo Husebye Partner JUNE 2016 [email protected] Oslo, London, New York, Houston, Rio, Moscow, Dubai, Singapore, Tokyo, Sydney, Bangalore, Stavanger

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