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Covid-19 Report 08—Rystad Energy

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Covid-19 Report 08—Rystad Energy COVID-19 REPORT 8TH EDITION GLOBAL OUTBREAK OVERVIEW AND ITS IMPACT ON THE ENERGY SECTOR 29 APRIL 2020 PUBLIC VERSION Table of Contents Executive summary Outbreak status and outlook Impact on oil demand Impact on the oil and gas industry 2 Executive summary Herd immunity unlikely as storage woes threaten global oil outlook In this week’s edition, we have taken a closer look at true fatality rates in various countries versus reported fatality rates from Covid-19. Based on research from the New York Times, figures from 11 regions indicate that the true number of Covid-19 fatalities could be 60% higher than reported figures. Applying this to our model shows that New York City will probably achieve herd immunity soon, as half of the population is likely already infected. For most other countries, a maximum of 13% of the population is likely infected, while in most places less than 1% is likely infected. Thus, there is no indication that global herd immunity will be achieved over the next 12 months. This means the operant strategy going forward will be the continued isolation of recovered regions, while local activities within a region slowly resume. We therefore must continue to wait for a vaccination, a new miracle drug, or an efficient anti-virus technology, which will hopefully arrive quicker than herd immunity. Recent traffic data confirms that flight and car traffic reached a floor one or two weeks ago and are now slowly trending upwards. However, with 28 million barrels per day in demand destruction and still less than 2 million barrels of supply shut-ins, we are approaching a storage crisis where all available storage will be filled and the global oil market will “hit the wall”, as WTI did last week. Global sanctioning of new oil field developments in 2020 will probably be at the lowest level seen since the 1950’s, unless governments are successful at incentivizing companies to sanction new projects. NYC herd immunity Global oil demand US fuel demand analysis, page 8 outlook, page 16 analysis, page 22 3 Table of Contents Executive summary Outbreak status and outlook • Global overview • Key country focus Impact on oil demand Impact on the oil and gas industry 4 Global overview The true number of people infected globally today is likely 54 million Number of true and reported cases Cases (log scale) As of 27 April, 54 million people have likely been infected with Covid-19, according to our updated model. 100,000,000 Estimated true cases Reported cases were alomst 3 million as of 27 April, a number which our analysis suggests represents just 5% to 10,000,000 6% of true cases. Reported cases are now growing at around 3% per day (7-day trailing average), down from 4% last week and 5% the preceding week. This is an 1,000,000 indication that quarantine measures are working. Growth is no longer exponential, but now appears linear, with Fatalities 80,000 new reported cases per day on average over the 100,000 last three weeks Registered fatalities globally were 207,000 as of 27 April, 10,000 a number which grew by 3% over the last week versus the 5%, 6% and 10% growth seen respectively over the previous three weeks (trailing seven-day average). 1,000 In this edition we present one scenario, wherein current strict measures are maintained in the forecast period to 100 Week 18 end of May. In this scenario, 74 million people will be Week 17 infected across the globe by the end of May. 10 Forecast 1 Source: Rystad Energy Covid-19 research and analysis; Worldometer 5 Global overview Most European countries have past the (first) peak Number of new reported covid-19 fatalities per day Per 100 000 people for 14 days rolling average Historical Future 10 New York City This plot shows the date Belgium and level of peak daily fatalities. As seen, most Spain France Peru Netherlands Italy UK Mexico European countries Normal death rates have passed the peak, 1 Switzerland Canada Sweden Africa USA while, for example, the peak is yet to come for North America Germany Denm. Mexico and Peru . South America Austria Brazil Asia Norway Turkey Normal death rates are 0.1 Australia 1.0 to 2.5 per day per Poland Russia Europe 100,000 people. Thus, Middle East Covid-19 deaths at this Russia level means a doubling South of the death rate, which Korea Size = Population Malay. is significant. 0.01 Indonesia These figures are based India on trends in reported fatalities so far, and do not take into account the underreporting of 0.001 Taiwan fatalities (see the next page) or a potential comeback of the virus China after quarantine measures are loosened. 0.0001 30-Jan-20 13-Feb-20 27-Feb-20 12-Mar-20 26-Mar-20 9-Apr-20 23-Apr-20 7-May-20 21-May-20 Date of peak daily fatalities (14 day average) 6 Global overview True number of Covid-19 deaths probably 60% above reported in selected regions Number of fatalities per day per 100 000 population in March- mid April 2020* The global population is growing, as there are 2.1 deaths and 5.3 births Normal per day per 100,000 in population. Belgium 2.8 0.8 3.8 Covid-19 reported Regions with an aging population, Unexplained such as Europe, see 2.5 deaths per Netherlands 2.6 0.5 3.7 day per 100,000 people. In young, growing populations like Jakarta, there is around 1 death per day per Sweden 2.5 0.4 3.0 100,000 people. England and Comparing actual reported deaths 2.5 0.5 3.3 in March and April 2020 with 2019, Wales the death rate is significantly higher in 2020. Even when including France 2.5 0.6 3.5 Covid-19 reported deaths, actual deaths figures are higher, indicating an underreporting of Covid-19 Spain 2.5 1.1 4.1 fatalities. The weighted average of fatalites Switzerland 2.2 0.3 2.7 for 11 regions is shows here. We find that it is likely that actual Covid- 19 deaths are 60% higher than New York City 1.8 4.4 7.3 reported. In some countries, deaths at 1.5 hospitals are primarily those Istanbul 0.2 1.9 registered as Covid-19 deaths, which does not account for those Ecuador 1.2 0.1 2.1 who have died at home or at nursing homes. This partly explains the underreporting. Jakarta 0.9 0.0 1.4 Source: New York Times Update on Covid-19 as of April 27th. *Reporting time details, see here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html?referringSource=articleShare; Country/regional health authorities. Rystad Energy Covid-19 model; Note, our core model has not yet been updated to include likely non-reported fatalities as shown above 7 Global overview Herd immunity to be achieved in New York soon, but not in most other regions Share of population infected as of 28 April 2020 Based on the true number of 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% fatalities, as presented on the previous page, our modelis able Belgium 13% to estimate the true number of infected people. This can be calculated as the Netherlands 12% number of true fatalities divided by the fatality rate, multuplied by growth over last 18 days. E.g. Sweden 6% for Belgium it is 13%. For New York City, with a England and Wales 10% shocking 16,936 deaths,we have used a theoretical Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of 0.58 and a France 7% growth rate of 3% per day. Given these parameters, the actual number of infected Spain 10% people per day is likely almost 55% of the population. Switzerland 4% However, IFR is probably higher in NYC due to the insufficient intensive care capacity, NYC >40% meaning that the total figures for infected people will be lower. Still, NYC is close to achieving Istanbul 3% herd immunity. The same may be true for Ecuador >40% Ecuador, although other regions are still far away from achieving herd immunity. Jakarta 3% Source: Rystad Energy Covid-19 model; For Belgium: 63 deaths per 100 000 28 april; True deaths: 1/0.8*63 = 79; IFR: 0.8%; Infected 18 days ago: 79/0.8%=9875; Growth: 1.5% per day=1.32 for 18 days. Current number fo infected = 9875 * 1.32 = 13 035 = 13% of 100 000. 8 Key country focus Italy, Spain, France flat curves - UK, US and Japan almost there – Brazil slowing down Number of reported cases, key countries Cases (log scale) 1,000,000 UK 100,000 Iran China Brazil Japan – finally deviating from path South Korea of doubling every 8 days 10,000 1,000 100 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 77 84 91 98 For further details please see our Covid-19 dashboard at rystadenergy.com. Source: Rystad Energy Covid-19 research and analysis; Worldometer 9 Key country focus UK has likely peaked in active cases after more than a month of lockdown United Kingdom, estimated total and active true cases Number of cases; Current measures scenario* Forecast Total true cases may pass 5,000,000 Total true cases today 4.5 million by end of May 4,500,000 likely around 4 million 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 Active true cases 2,500,000 estimated to have 2,000,000 peaked 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 Reported cases 152,840 0 03-Apr 06-Apr 09-Apr 12-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 21-Apr 24-Apr 27-Apr 30-Apr 01-Mar 04-Mar 07-Mar 10-Mar 13-Mar 16-Mar 19-Mar 22-Mar 25-Mar 28-Mar 31-Mar 03-May 06-May 09-May 12-May 15-May 18-May 21-May 24-May 27-May 30-May Daily new cases and deaths 10,000 1,200 9,000 Reported new cases New fatalities 8,000 Reported new deaths (RHS) trending down 1,000 7,000 800 6,000 5,000 Strong measures 600 4,000 implemented 3,000 New cases 400 stabilized 2,000 200 1,000 0 - For further details please see our 02-Apr 04-Apr 06-Apr 08-Apr 10-Apr 12-Apr 14-Apr 16-Apr 18-Apr 20-Apr 22-Apr 24-Apr 26-Apr 01-Mar 03-Mar 05-Mar 07-Mar 09-Mar 11-Mar 13-Mar 15-Mar 17-Mar 19-Mar 21-Mar 23-Mar 25-Mar 27-Mar 29-Mar 31-Mar Covid-19 dashboard *Assumes current measures remain in place during forecasting interval at rystadenergy.com.
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