DRR-Team Mission Report Myanmar

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[30 September 2015 [DRR team Myanmar]

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DRR-TEAM [Myanmar]

Document title DRR team Myanmar rev2 Status Final Date 30 September 2015 Project name Myanmar DRR team Mission

Drafted by RC Steijn, HJ Barneveld, E.Wijma, J.Beckers, T.Reuzenaar, R. Koopmans, Kyaw Lin Htet Checked by RC Steijn

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EXECUTIVE’S SUMMARY

In July/August 2015, Myanmar experienced the most severe flooding in decades. Flood Affected Areas maps, such as the ones prepared by UN-OCHA, showed the enormous scale and severity of the situation.

Myanmar and the Netherlands share a long history of dealing with floods. In the aftermath of the July/August flood disaster, Minister Schultz van Haegen together with her Dutch colleague Minister Ploumen, offered to send a Dutch Risk Reduction Team (DRR) to Myanmar. The government of Myanmar accepted this offer. Following the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding on integrated water resources management between both countries in 2013, the DRR activities are fully aligned with the other related Dutch MoU activities.

Dutch Risk Reduction Teams in general aim to reduce the risk of water related disasters. Many countries around the world face severe water threats. Often, these countries are in urgent need of expert advice on how to prevent a disaster or how to recover from a calamity.

The DRR-team visited two regions in Myanmar in the period 30 August – 6 September, namely the dike protected areas in the upper and middle parts of the Ayeyarwady delta, and Kalay / Monywa in Sagaing Region. The objectives of these visits were to:

• Indicate the necessity for immediate action in the visited areas; • Give suggestions for Modernization of techniques, tools and approaches; • Provide on-site capacity building to the accompanying Myanmar Experts (from irrigation Department and DWIR); • Provide hands-on assistance on data management, including early warning systems; • Suggest ways to prioritize required measures.

Annex A gives the names of the DRR team members, as well as those of the Myanmar experts who accompanied both teams, and those who attended the Wrap-up Meeting on 5 September in Yangon.

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Summary of Findings Subteam “Delta”

Embankment issues as well as river dynamics issues were discussed following largely the route Yangon – Nyaung Done – Zalun – Hinthada – Pathein. At each of the visited locations the team provided hands-on training on the following topics: management of dikes (inspection and improvement), controlling river dynamics (in particular meander cut-offs), applying the risk approach to prioritize measures and (briefly) the necessity to involve local communities.

The overall conclusion is that although the situations have been serious during the recent high water events, no breaching or unexpected disasters happened. This is mainly due to the excellent field operations carried out by the experts from the Irrigation Department and their many helpers in the field. The inspected dike sections appeared strong enough to also withstand similar high waters in the (near) future. This is true under the assumption that the staff from the irrigation Department stays equally alert and properly equipped.

However, if conditions get worse, then the stability of the embankments may be seriously in danger. This is particularly true for a situation with overtopping of the crests. At many locations, the stability of the crest and the inner slopes will be in danger once water flows over the dike. This asks for a major initiative to at least improve the quality of the surfaces of the embankments and to bring the Existing Crest Level to the Authorized Crest Level.

A plan to increase the height of the dikes in the delta with 5 feet has been discussed as well. It was noted that without knowing the subsoil conditions of the dike cross-sections, slope instability and settling may occur when raising the crest. This may jeopardize the dike itself as well as adjacent areas. It was further noted that it may be good to raise the height with, for example 5 feet, near Hinthada and gradually less towards the two ends of the U-dike. It is important to first assess local water levels under extreme conditions and potential reduction in flood risks, before starting an expensive and complex dike improvement project as proposed.

Regarding another idea to extent the dike along the Pathein river in downstream direction, it was noted that this will affect the upstream water levels, which could worsen the situation there (overtopping, more piping). Numerical modelling and environmental/social impact studies will help to optimize the process of decision making by providing cost effective measures and prevent implementing measures that are (socially) counterproductive.

Also the situation at Nyaung Done was considered dangerous as the lives of hundreds of people depend on the strength of a poorly engineered, poorly maintained and wrongly used dike which is undermined by river dynamics as well. Although there is no need for immediate emergency action, it is important to develop a rational behind the protection of this town to avoid future disasters.

Summary of Findings Subteam “Kalay / Monywa”

At each of the visited locations the team provided hands-on training on the following topics: management of dikes (inspection and improvement), controlling river dynamics (dredging new channels, removing obstacles, meander cut-offs and training works), and flood early warning systems.

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The situation at Kalay remains critical as a structural solution to avoid inundation under similar extreme conditions cannot easily be developed and implemented. It is important to first have knowledge about the probability of flooding, on the basis of which actual current safety levels can be assessed.

The field trip to Monywa showed the excessive erosion at the toe of the quay wall and the poor state of maintenance of dike sections. A toe protection by filter and stable rock cover would be a good first step to avoid failure of the wall under new extreme conditions.

A variety of proposed river improvement projects were discussed and considerations on how to optimize these plans were given. For example, removing the bottlenecks in the Myittha river between Kalay and Kalaywa will affect the water levels, flow velocities and morphology along the majority of the river.

These hydro-morphological changes needs to be assessed first by numerical modelling before starting such a complex and expensive project. The costs for carrying out numerical modelling can be defended by the savings that can be achieved with an optimized design. Considerations are provided in this report also for projects such as protecting Kalay by a new dike, and dredging secondary channels, meander cut-offs and protection schemes at various river bend locations. Concrete suggestions for follow-up support on these projects have been discussed.

Elements of early warning systems were discussed in detail. The associated activities will require limited time and effort and will lead to a considerable advancement in forecasting and early warning capabilities. The result is an extension of the forecast lead time, of the number of forecast locations and suggestions for putting these improved forecasts to use.

Summary of suggested follow-up activities

This report gives concrete suggestions for ongoing support, aiming to make the Myanmar approach towards water management more proactive. Some of the topics will fit relatively easily with ongoing Dutch -Myanmar initiatives. The suggestions cover a wide palette of topics and include:

 Dike inspection tool: Prikstok;  Dike design tools: Ground drill and gouge;  Dike design tools: Upgrade numerical methods;  Dike management tools: data storage and inspection app;  Dike management: review of existing guide;  River monitoring: improve data management system and monitoring network;  River management: improve predictive capacity (river impact studies such as at meander cut-off at Zalun of impact of dike extension at Tabaung, or anticipated river measures in Myittha near Kalay);  River monitoring: Van Veen grab;  Early warning: flood forecasting system;  Risk approach: prepare flood hazard maps;  Risk approach: apply method at Nyaung Done Township (incl. stakeholder management); and  Risk approach: similar for Kalay Town (focus on frequency analysis).

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No ranking has been applied to these suggested DRR follow-up activities, since it is up to the Myanmar government to prioritise and decide on the relevance of the measures. Final choices will depend on own funding and/or possible matching funds from other running or expected initiatives. It is recommended to start exploring options for such co-funding as soon as possible.

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CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Netherlands and Myanmar 3 1.3 Dutch Risk Reduction 5 1.4 Terms of Reference for this mission 5 1.5 Reader’s guide and Acknowledgements 7

2 FIELD MISSION REPORT “DELTA” 9 2.1 Observations 9 2.2 Critical situations 20 2.3 Summary of on-site Capacity Building 20

3 FIELD MISSION REPORT “KALAY” 26 3.1 Observations 26 3.2 Critical situations 39 3.3 Flood forecasting 39 3.4 Summary of on-site Capacity Building 44

4 SUGGESTIONS FOR CONTINUED CAPACITY BUILDING 49 4.1 Introduction 49 4.2 Dikes 49 4.3 River dynamics 51 4.4 Early warning system 53 4.5 Risk Approach 54 4.6 Stakeholder involvement and governance 55

5 RECOMMENDATIONS AND PROPOSED FOLLOW-UP ACTIVITIES 56 5.1 Alignment with other flood safety related initiatives 56 5.2 Structural measures 57 5.3 Non-structural measures 58 5.4 Planning and Financing 58

ANNEX A – TEAM MEMBERSAND WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS 61

ANNEX B– BRIEF MINUTES OF MEETINGS 65

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1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background

Following a period of unusually heavy monsoon precipitation that started in mid-July and continued into August 2015, Myanmar experienced the most severe flooding in decades. The rainfall is associated with the South-West Monsoon, which occurs each year, but the situation got worse after the landfall of Cyclone Komen in Bangladesh on 30 July, which brought strong winds and additional heavy rain to (north) Myanmar.

The extent and severity of the unfortunate combination of events became apparent by mid-August when on 21 August 2015, the European Commission’s Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) reported 110 victims, 330000 displaced households, more than 1.6 million people affected, and more than 15000 houses destroyed. With about 1.5 million acres of farmland inundated, and 690 000 acres actually damaged at the onset of the planting season, it is expected that the country will also have to cope with the consequences of the flooding in the coming months. The Situation Reports as these are frequently published UN-OCHA (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs), give a similar picture of the extent and seriousness of the July/ August floods.

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Flood Situation Map dated 20 August 2015. Source: UNOCHA Report

To illustrate the scale of flooding, the Figure below shows the evolution of the flooded areas in the lower Ayeyarwady River from 10 to 17 August 2015, based on satellite imagery (source: ERCC, but similar images have been produced by other organizations in particular UN-OCHA).

Inundation depths vary over the flooded areas, but in general are more than 1 m. Since most of the houses in the area are built on piles with a floor elevation of mostly less than 1 m, the floods caused serious disruption of daily lives.

Comparison of flood inundation extent from 10 August 2015 (left) and 17 August 2015 (right) in the Ayeyawady river basin.

The map shown in the Figure below, shows the widespread flooding of the Ayeyawady River in the area of Hinthada which town is located in the upper Delta.

These inundation maps provide useful support to national operational units as well as to international aid organizations.

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Copernicus EMS flood extent map for the Ayeyarwady River in the area of Hinthada.

1.2 Netherlands and Myanmar

Both the Netherlands and Myanmar have a long history of managing their water systems. This relates to floods, droughts, and water quality. In Myanmar, a National Water Resources Committee (NWRC), has developed a National Water Policy with a clear vision on sustainable water management. NWRC is advised and supported by an Advisory Group (AG), chaired by U Ohn Myint.

In 2013, The Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment offered support to the government of Myanmar in the development of an integrated Water Resources management (IWRM) Strategy for Myanmar. Following this offer, in May 2013, a memorandum (MoU) was signed with the Myanmar Ministry of Transport (MoT), in name of the NWRC.

Part of the MoU is the exchange of knowledge and experiences between both countries by a Dutch High Level Expert team, chaired by Dutch former Minister Cees Veerman. The Secretariats of both the NWRC and its Advisory Group (AG), have been the liaison between the Myanmar and Dutch expert groups, the relevant departments in Myanmar and the Dutch IWRM Study Team, who all contributed to the establishment of IWRM final reports published in November 2014 (IWRM, Strategic Study, 2014a,b).

Both countries have experienced disastrous floods in their pasts. This ‘legacy’ is why Dutch Minister Schultz van Haegen, who is also Vice Chair of the High Level Experts and Leaders Panel for Water and Disasters (HELP) strongly stated: “The Netherlands can offer the world a lot of knowledge and know-how in the field of water management. I cannot and will not stand by and watch as the effects of floods, droughts, hurricanes and tsunamis become ever greater. Noblesse oblige, as far as that is concerned."

In the aftermath of the July/August flood disaster, Minister Schultz van Haegen together with her Dutch colleague Minister Ploumen, offered to send a Disaster Risk Reduction

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Team (DRR – further explained in Section 1.3) to Myanmar. The government of Myanmar accepted this offer.

As part of the ongoing Dutch cooperation with Myanmar, the High Level Expert Team IWRM Myanmar (HEIM-team) visited Myanmar from 16-21 August. This visit was already planned and was meant to gain insights of the Ayeyarwady delta. Because of the urgent situation that occurred (Section 1.1), the HEIM team was asked to formulate the focus for the DRR team mission. The brief report of the delta visit Mr Paul van Meel, Aung Myint Oo and Tanya Huizer (August 9, 2015) and the advice of the HEIM-Team (August 22, 2015) formed the basis of the DRR team mission.

The DRR team mission, that took place from 30 August – 6 September, is in fact a logical step in the overall approach for co-operation between both countries. This becomes clear when the key messages from the IWRM Strategic Study (2014) are re-called:

IWRM Key Message 1: Optimizing what you have

Myanmar already has important water infrastructure, such as dams, canals, sluices and pumping stations, dykes and river training works. However, there is a large potential for improving, upgrading and redesigning the functioning of this infrastructure. Thus it can become a substantial base for the development in Myanmar. It is recommended to take the current infrastructure as a starting point and give priority to make them greener and more productive small short term actions with quick wins toward provision of clean drinking water, food and energy production and navigability of the rivers. For example, if any development work situated in the Delta area or Tidal Region, the environmental conservation department under MoECaF will take the lead in introducing suitable sustainability measures such as replantation of mangroves, conservation of coral and aquatic marine habitats and numerous tangled roots, etc.

IWRM Key Message 2: Taking a "broad view" in the analysis of the problems

Looking into other interests, including future developments, in a well-considered integrated way is essential for successfully solving water problems and developing water resources. This approach will deliver solutions which are more robust and give a better cost - benefit balance and attract broader support from stakeholders. For example, when planning for or redesigning dams, in particular large ones, reservoirs, embankments, sluices and canals for irrigation or drainage, and river works, it may well pay off to consider watershed management or irrigation, to avoid (further) erosion, possibilities for flood management, sediment management to help navigation, reduction of salt intrusion and nature development rather than e.g. single sector hydropower. The rapid degradation of water quantity and quality will spoil the efforts to bring development if IWRM is not wholeheartedly handled. Focusing on silo (or) compartmental development in the Agriculture, Industry, Hydropower, and Service sector will lead to real conflicts among line ministries and create tensions with other stakeholders. To avoid that possible damage and envisioning for equitable water sharing it is essential to give priority to IWRM through dialogues within NWRC. Such a "broader view" is also likely to be more robust with respect to shifts in socio-economic development.

IWRM Key Message 3: Focus on education, capacity building and training

Capacity building is a key success factor for integrated development of water resources in Myanmar. Increasing capacity building is required at all levels, from

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gate-keeper to high level civil servants. It should consist of a multiyear programme for young and senior professionals, improvement of curricula at universities, establishment of vocational education, training at local level etc. It should stimulate the cooperation between ministries in policy and decision making processes, including the cooperation with regions. Cooperation in this field between programmes of different donors in Myanmar needs to be stimulated. Special attention is needed for learning by doing. IWRM is only useful in real world cases. Capacity building programmes should be connected with projects. The projects described below offer opportunities for capacity building for students and professionals. Special attention is therefore also needed for the creation of real career opportunities for IWRM professionals. Only by practicing what they will be taught to preach will they be able to act as the ‘change agents’ Myanmar so urgently needs.

The DRR team mission follows largely these key messages: it focuses on technical support, as part of a bigger picture, with special attention for on-site capacity building that can make instant improvements of working processes and decision-making approaches. The findings of the first DRR team mission are described in this document.

1.3 Dutch Risk Reduction

Dutch Risk Reduction Teams in general aim to reduce the risk of water related disasters. Many countries around the world face severe water threats. Often, these countries are in urgent need of expert advice on how to prevent a disaster or how to recover from a calamity.

For example, when a country has been struck by severe flooding and the first emergency relief workers are gone, the need for advice on how to build a sustainable and safer water future arises. To meet these needs with a swift response, the Dutch government has initiated the Dutch Risk Reduction Team (DRR Team). This team of experts advises governments on how to resolve urgent water issues related to flood risks, water pollution and water supply, to prevent disasters or to rebuild after water related disasters. With climate change and a fast growing world population, water issues are becoming more urgent.

The Netherlands has brought its best water experts together in the Dutch Risk Reduction Team. It consists of high level advisors supported by a broad base of technical experts who can provide top quality and tailor made expertise to governments that are confronted with severe and urgent water challenges. The Dutch are experts in adapting to water in a changing world; from delta management to water technology, from urban planning to governance, public private partnerships and financial engineering.

1.4 Terms of Reference for this mission

Based on the field work carried out by the HEIM team in August 2015, discussions held with experts from Myanmar, as well as keeping in mind the three IWRM key messages, it was decided that two regions would be visited:

 The Ayeyarwady upper and middle delta region (Hinthada and Pathein District); and  Kalay and Monywa in Sagaing region.

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The objectives of the DRR team mission is to provide advice and on-spot capacity building on short-term flood control and dike management in the Ayeyarwady delta region, as well as a potential early flood warning system for flash floods in Kale Township Area. More specifically:

Related to flood protection in dike protected areas (mainly in Ayeyarwady delta) assistance should focus on:

 Reflection on used techniques for dike construction, maintenance and (emergency) repairs, including reflection on processes of cooperation and governance in these areas  Possibilities to apply new technologies and arrangements on a short term  Possibilities for improved cooperation between dike maintenance and management of the river channel (sedimentation/erosion/vegetation)  Reflection on prioritization of critical dike sections for short term (within 1 month) inspection and maintenance on base of engineers estimate and with special attention for urban areas.  An evaluation of needs for capacity building and knowledge development.

Related to flash floods (Kalaytown area) assistance should focus on:

• Evaluation of the situation and dialogue on causes and possible solutions • Recommendations aimed at possibilities for Early Warning for flash floods (innovative measuring tools, predictive models, communication techniques)

During the visits to the two areas and based on discussions held with representatives from the Myanmar authorities, the above objectives of the mission narrowed down to the following five generic objectives:

 Inventorise the necessity for immediate action in the visited areas;  Give suggestions for Modernization of techniques, tools and approaches;  Advice on Capacity building to implement these effectively;  Provide Assistance on data management, including early warning systems;  Comment on approaches to prioritize measures.

The planning of the DRR team mission was as follows:

26 August: Team mobilisation 27 – 29 August: Team preparations in Netherlands 30 – 31 August: Travelling, arrival, kick-off meeting. 1-4 Sept: Fieldwork, on-site capacity building, sharing expertise and ideas SUBTEAM 1: Ayeyarwady Delta (upper and middle delta) SUBTEAM 2: Kalay and Monywa 5 Sept: Subteams share observations and ideas; wrap-up session Yangon 10 -18 Sept: Reporting, feedback to DRR management team; 22- 30 Sept: Finalisation of report; 1 October: Feedback session HEIM team and Feedback to Dutch Water Sector.

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1.5 Reader’s guide and Acknowledgements

Chapters 2 and 3 give a summary of the observations from the two field trips. It describes the locations that were visited, what the local issues were, and if emergency action is necessary.

The field trips gave excellent opportunity for on-spot capacity building because both subteams were guided by experts from the Irrigation Department and DWIR. An impression on the kind of on-spot capacity building is presented in Chapters 2 and 3 as well.

Some considerations are presented for the delta and for Kalay/Monywa areas in Sections 2.3 and 3.4 respectively, on projects suggested by the Myanmar experts.

In Chapter 4, concrete suggestions are given for follow-up activities. These include:

- Improving dike management, both technically and managerial (Section 4.2); - Increasing the predictive capacity for river improvement projects (Section 4.3); - Implement flood forecasting systems (Section 4.4); - Development of a rational risk approach (Section 4.5); and - How to involve local communities to smoothen processes (Section 4.6).

Recommendations on how to proceed are given in Chapter 5. This includes an estimate of costs and planning for the proposed follow-up activities.

The names of the Dutch team members, as well as those of the Myanmar experts who accompanied both teams during their field work, is given in Annex A. All mentioned experts have put a lot of effort in making the mission a success and are warmly acknowledged for their hard work.

Annex A also gives a list of names of those who attended the Wrap-up Meeting on 5 September in Yangon. All participants are respectfully acknowledged for their important feedback and contributions.

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2 FIELD MISSION REPORT “DELTA”

2.1 Observations

During 2015 flood, the Delta suffered from heavy flooding, more than usual. No dike failure has occurred however. Flooding in the Delta is mainly the consequence of floodplain flooding. This type of flooding hardly leads to casualties in terms of death tolls.

The 2015 flood mainly caused damage to houses (properties), infrastructure and agricultural yield. Thousands of villages are located in the unprotected zones in the delta. Even on newly formed islands inside the Ayeyarwaddy delta, people have started to inhabit the land, fully aware of the likeliness of regular flooding. The embankments in the delta are often not enclosed to form dike rings but have a horse shoe shape, meaning that flooding can occur in the “protected” areas as a result of backflow from downstream direction.

Flooding in this part of the delta is a ‘way of life’ for the people: “living with floods”. They need flooding to bring in fertile silt and clay and depend on this water to irrigate their lands in the dry season (flood and rainwater cropping). Besides, flooding is a way to compensate for the subsidence of the delta and to a certain extent keep track with the sea level rise. The people are adapted to flooding; most houses are built on piles. The floor level of these houses was however not sufficient to prevent from flooding during August 2015 flood. Flood marks have been seen up to 1m above floor level.

The protected areas outside the influence of backflow also showed signs of inundation. This water stagnation was the result of local heavy rainfall.

Flooding of houses located in the flood plain of the Ayeyarwaddy River. Flood marks on the walls show the maximum water level during the August 2015 flood event.

Many locations in the Delta show large scale river dynamics leading to bank erosion and undermining of river banks and embankments. The process of meander migration is not related to the 2015 flood event only, but it is a process that continues throughout the year. Meander cut-offs are a measure that is already applied for some locations as a measure to reduce the pressure of the main channel on the dikes along the outer bend

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that are affected. Meander cut-offs have been executed often without a clear plan or impact assessment. Bank protection is hardly applied in the locations that were visited.

The image below shows with red dots the locations that were visited in the delta region. Embankment issues as well as river dynamics issues were discussed following largely the route Yangon – Nyaung Done – Zalun – Hinthada – Pathein. The U-shape of this route follows the main river embankments in the Delta, which on its western side ends a bit north of Pathein. It’s an open area that only gets protection along the two arms of the “U”, and which gets flooded regularly as decribed above.

Route map subteam “delta”

A prerequisite for the proper functioning of the U-embankment in the Delta is that the whole system must survive under extreme conditions: one weak spot could threaten the whole protection system. This is why the Irrigation Department, who is responsible for the maintenance of the dike system, operates a detailed inspection and maintenance

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strategy. Their experts chose the locations that were visited as they had specific queries about some technical and operational issues for these locations.

Brief descriptions are given below for only a selection of the visited locations. The descriptions are representative for similar discussions and issues observed and discussed at the other visited locations.

Location 2 Nyaung Done

Nyaung Done is a township located at the river junction of the Pan Hlaing River and the Ayeyarwaddy river. The whole town lies outside the formal embankments which follows the main road south and east of the township. A levee was built along the river side to protect the town against high water levels that occasionally occur (blue line in below picture).

On August 15th, the highest water level on the river side was recorded at 22,6 ft (note: all levels are with respect to Mean Sea Level), with a lowest level of 16,5 ft on 25th August. The level of the land is around 10.5 ft, meaning that the head difference was some 12 ft (or 3 m) at maximum. In the dry season water levels are around 25 ft (or 8 m) lower, which indicates the drastic rise in water levels in the monsoon periods.

The head difference across the dike caused a lot of leakage, which was a threat for the people living directly behind the dike. Local people tried to manage the situation by

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putting sand bags on the inner slopes (see pictures taken from a location near 12th Street).

To stop erosion of the outer slope as a result of migrating river channels, a revetment was built along a major portion of the dike (not visible during the visit because of the high water). This revetment as well as walled sections of the dike are built on concrete piles. Such fixed structures have a different settling behavior as soil, which may have resulted in hollow spaces in the dike. This could be one of the reasons for the leakages.

Other explanations for the observed leakages are likely the presence of trees and vegetation (roots causing leakage channels through the dike), heterogeneous subsoil, and people using the dike for all sorts of activities (shops, heavy loads, stairs, etc.).

Concrete stairs are a good example of how the strength of a dike can be undermined. Rainfall and different settling results in sort of small flow gullies next to the stairs, which will be weak spots in times of high water.

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Close to 30th Street leakage through the dike caused piping (i.e. sediment carrying leakage, thus undermining the dike). The classical response with putting sand bags around the outflow point on the inner slope seemed to have been effective, even though the space for this emergency response was limited due to the presence of a house.

The conclusion from the visit is that the situation is serious and dangerous under water levels higher than those experienced in August. If water levels would ever increase till above the crest level of the dike, a disaster is very likely as the dike will not be able to survive under such conditions. With 3-4 m head difference, the township will then be flooded suddenly and loss of lives are likely.

Location 5 Daung Gyi (North of Zalun)

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A boat trip was undertaken from a location near Zalun (with more examples of piping and leakages that occurred during the recent high water levels) to Daung Gyi, where one of the river channels has migrated so far towards the dike that it started to undermine its toe.

A secondary embankment was built some years ago to make sure that in case of a breach of the outer dike, the hinterland would be safe. Additional measures were taken to protect the “first” dike by placing a flow diversion screen made of nets, floating barrels and kept at place with concrete blocks.

At one specific location (see pictures below) this flow diversion didn’t work and undermining of the outer slope of the first dike occurred. A breach could be prevented by immediate action, such as a support berm at the inner slope with sand excavated from the inner bend of the river channel, sand bags to maintain the crest height and slope protection of the outer slope.

Plans were presented to the team on a large-scale river improvement work. This consists of the dredging of a several miles long meander shortcut channel, the closure of the river channel towards the threatened dike section and the construction of three dams to further guide the river flow through the newly dredged cutoff channel. The map below shows the contours of this plan for which some 3 M$ is said to be allocated.

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Data on depths as well as data on river discharges are available. River discharges were computed based on standardized flow measurements at different depths and at different positions along a number of river cross-sections.

The design of the river improvement project as shown is largely based on long-term experience only. There is no possibility to optimize the design by means of computer modelling. This also means that the impact of the anticipated river works on other sections of the river remain uncertain (such as increased bank erosion at other embankment sections).

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Map showing the plan for a river cut-off and related river works near Zalun

Location 6 Hinthada

South of Hinthada an embankment section was visited with a secondary embankment (in Dutch: inlaagdijk). The land between this secondary dike and the first dike along the river is inhabited (the ‘square’ area in the google map image below).

If water rises and reaches the first (river-facing) dike, its stability is at risk. To lower the water pressure over this dike, the land between both dikes is inundated by means of a number of syphons. The people that live in this deliberately inundated area are then allowed to live in houses on some of the higher diked sections along the river. When the water levels in the river drop again, the water from this area is pumped out again rapidly to avoid damage to the dike from the inland side.

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Since little was known about the soil composition and other inspection requirements, quite some time was used to demonstrate the use of ‘prikstok’, gouge and hand-operated ground drill. The first word cannot be translated in English, so it was decided to introduce this Dutch word in the Myanmar language.

In particular the prikstok proofed to give immediate information about the top 1 m of surface of the embankment. Further, the ground drilling led to the conclusion that at this particular location the subsoil consists mainly of clay. Intensively capacity building took place in the field and might have significant added value in the future, for other townships in delta.

The inner slope of the second dike (shown in the picture below) looks relatively steep and has no inner berm. Only computer simulations may show whether or not the inner slopes are safe under design conditions or not.

It appeared that the inner slope was used by local inhabitants to grow vegetables. Obviously such use is not in line with the objectives of the dike and may jeopardize its

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stability under extreme conditions. Discussions were held on involvement of local people in decision-making processes. Such communication appeared to be very minimal.

Location 9 Laymyethana Township

The Google map below shows clearly what is the issue at this location (note that this picture was taken at low water levels – during the field trip most of the outer areas was flooded): channel migration undermining the embankment.

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To secure the safety of the hinterland a secondary embankment has been made, but the first dike is still to be protected as well (to protect the second dike). The first dike however was in a very poor state with a clear example of inner slope failure (see pictures below). The use of the prikstok was demonstrated again to make a quick inventory of the inner slope conditions. At some locations the prikstok showed hollow areas in the dike that could not be seen from the surface.

One measure to reduce the pressure on the first dike is to inundate the area between the first and the second dike. This helps dike stability.

Similar as to many other locations where river dynamics threatens the stability of the embankment, plans have been initiated to dredge a shortcut channel. The image below shows such a meander shortcut channel that was excavated several years ago.

Whether or not such a shortcut channel takes over the role of the old channel depends on its position in the river flow, but in particular on the subsoil conditions.

At another location (close to location #13 at Thaubaung Town) a similar shortcut channel was cut some 25 years ago. The channel hardly widened since then while flow velocities were more than 2 m/s when the team visited that location (see pictures below). The only explanation why the shortcut channel did not widen rapidly is because the underground consist of poor-erodible material such as clay.

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2.2 Critical situations

The overall conclusion from the observations is that although the situations have been quite serious during the recent high water events, no breaching or unexpected disasters happened. This is mainly due to the excellent field operations carried out by the experts from the Irrigation Department and their many helpers in the field.

The inspected dike sections appeared strong enough to also withstand similar high waters in the (near) future. This is true under the assumption that the staff from the irrigation Department stays equally alert and properly equipped.

However, if conditions get worse, then the stability of the embankments may be seriously in danger. This is particularly true for a situation with overtopping of the crests. At many locations, the stability of the crest and the inner slopes will be in danger once water flows over the dike. This asks for a major initiative to at least improve the quality of the surfaces of the embankments. An example is to improve the quality of the grass surface so that the grass will be more resistant to flow velocities.

Also the situation at Nyaung Done is considered dangerous as the lives of hundreds of people depend on the strength of a poorly engineered, poorly maintained and wrongly used dike which is undermined by river dynamics as well. Although there is no need for immediate emergency action, it is important to develop a rational behind the protection of this town.

2.3 Summary of on-site Capacity Building

Capacity Building

At each of the visited locations the team provided hands-on training on the following topics: management of dikes, controlling river dynamics, applying the risk approach and (briefly) stakeholder involvement. In summary, this support included the following:

Dikes  Practical use of inspection instruments prikstok, gouge and ground drill. By inspecting the dikes with the prikstok, cracks and animal holes were detected. The instruments were handed over as a gift of the team to the experts from the Irrigation Department

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 Explain what other functions undermine the stability of dikes. Just a few examples: roots from all sorts of vegetation may lead to leakages, big trees can make big holes when they fall over, cattle over the dike at specific locations lower the crest height, using the crest for transport reduces its flow resistance, goats can be allowed but cows not, an inner berm helps to increase the stability of a dike, cracks and hollow spaces can easily be spotted with the prikstok, fixed structures should be avoided in or on a dike section as they cause hollow areas, waste attract rats and other animals that may dig holes in the outer slope of dikes.

 Description of the inspection cycle as a management instrument that is based on a life cycle approach (check-do-act-plan). In Myanmar a “maintenance and care of embankment “guide exists, which shows similarities and differences with the equivalent in the Netherlands.

 The use of an “Inspection app” has been discussed, which could be an efficient instrument to collect, standardize and collect data from field inspections.

 Computer modelling can help to analyze the stability of dike sections under extreme conditions

River dynamics

 The importance of using the available data and what can be done with it. Combining available data sources from different Departments and other sources (Google-Earth for example), could already lead to a better understanding of the current river dynamics.

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 Forecasts of future river dynamics can be made based on data analysis. Computer modelling (hydrodynamics first) could be an important tool to predict in advance the impacts of any river improvement project (such as excavating a shortcut channel).

 Modelling can also be used to optimize a river improvement project, such as for example the plan developed at Location #5 (Daung Gyi).Here the necessity of the dams was doubted by the team, which can only be analyzed by computer modelling. As such computer modelling can also reduce the costs of a river improvement project. It was noted that computer modelling is a true profession requiring experts with a good understanding of the physics of water and sediment movements. Representatives of DWIR requested specific capacity building activities in the field of computer modelling for their river plans.

Risk approach

 The height of the embankments is basically based on historic flood events. It is a reactive way of water management which is the opposite of a planned strategy where specific safety levels are pro-actively being developed. To be able to do so, the first step is to quantify the probability of occurrences of extreme events that have happened. Based on that, projection can be made of even more extreme events that may happen in the future and their likely probability of occurrence.

 The next step is to assess the consequences of floods, each with their frequency of occurrence and inundation scenario.

 Combining flood probabilities and consequences of such floods provides information about the actual flood risks. The advantages of computing flood / erosion risks are: (a) it allows for an inter comparison of areas; (b) measures can be prioritized when budgets are too little; and (c) results can be used for investment decisions. The final choice to protect an area – and to what safety level - obviously can not only be based on rational facts. The perception of flood probabilities, non-monetary risks such as potential loss of cultural heritage, as well as (local) political considerations are often more decisive. However, the quantitative data from a rational risk approach can be used to show how these other considerations have been valued in the process. It makes decision-making transparent and reproducible, which in general is regarded as a positive element of modern water management.

Stakeholder involvement

 Many people live very close to the embankments. As a consequence they use the area for their purposes (vegetable gardening, transportation, housing), which has shown to be in conflict with professional embankment management.

 Although stakeholder involvement is currently hardly exercised, it may proof to be very helpful in the future when maintenance or improvement works are being planned. Local involvement often leads to new applicable solutions and mostly smoothens implementation processes. As such it is a way to make things happen, rather than the (wrongly) perceived burden that it may bring along.

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Some considerations on suggested projects

During the various meetings some considerations were shared with regard to very specific projects that are being considered by the Myanmar Government. Below these considerations are summarized for the delta area. Note that it is probably not a complete list. After proper studies, there will undoubtedly be more aspects that need further attention before actually implementing the proposed works.

Project idea P1: raising the U-embankment with 5 feet Raising the crest height with ca 1.5 m lowers the probability of water overtopping the embankment. Reducing the flood probability also lowers the flood risk.

Considerations shared: a) There is a discrepancy between the Authorized Crest Level (ACL) and the Existing Crest Level (ECL). A first step, or part of any crest heightening plan, would be to bring the ECL to ACL. b) Without knowing the subsoil conditions of the dike cross-sections, it is dangerous to ‘just’ put another 1,5 m of soil on top of the existing crest. Slope instability and settling may occur, which may jeopardize the dike itself and adjacent areas. It is important to first get sufficient data (for instance by using the ground drill) and to make stability computations with adequate geotechnical software. c) Increasing the crest height also means that the inner and outer slopes need to be improved (raised) increasing the width of the total dike section. This may not be an option at locations where (i) on the outer side a river channel is close to the toe of the dike, and (ii) on the inner slope houses or other properties are located at or near the toe. d) It is important to involve local communities in dike improvement projects if it interferes with their spatial use or properties. Involving them may cost some more time at the beginning, but often safes time as it smoothens the implementation process. Moreover, it gives an opportunity to teach local people the do’s and don’ts about using the embankment space. e) The crest height is important from an overtopping point of view. It may not be necessary to increase the height with 5 feet everywhere. It may make more sense to raise the height with, for example 5 feet, near Hinthada and gradually less towards the two ends of the U-dike. It depends on local water levels under extreme conditions and flood damage prevented by dike improvement, which first need to be assessed before starting an expensive and complex dike improvement project as proposed. f) The costs associated with carrying out such study are small compared to the savings that can be obtained from it.

Project idea P2: extending the U-embankment in southern direction towards Pathein Large parts of the delta are flooded from the south when water levels in the Pathein river exceed certain limits. Such event happens regularly on a year to year basis and is a logical consequence of the U-shaped embankment (see pink line in Figure below; actually “n-shaped”). However, during the recent flood, the extent of the flooded area as well as the inundation depths exceeded acceptable levels. By extending the west side of the U-embankment in southern direction (towards Pathein), the flooding from the south is expected to become less severe under identical river discharge conditions.

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Considerations shared: Extending the embankment in downstream direction might lead to a rise of the water level at high stage in de Pathein River upstream and in the reach of the extension. This could endanger the local dikes (potential overtopping, more piping), under extreme water level situations. A number of activities shall be executed prior to the decision of extending the dike: a) The first step is to measure water levels and determine the backwater curve in the Pathein River for different discharge situations. This exercise already provides a lot of information about the possible impact of a dike extension on the upstream water levels in the Pathein River. b) The second step is to set up a numerical hydrodynamic model as a tool to assess different design options for the dike. c) Environmental and social impact Assessment (ESIA): Flooding is not only a threat but can to a certain extent also be beneficial for the delta. The current floods also bring vertile soil and fresh water to the delta and agricultural land. Besides, if less area is flooded, this may have an impact on the capacity of the delta to follow sea level rise. Before extending the dike in downstream direction these effects first need to be assessed through studies.

Numerical modelling and social impact studies help to optimize the process of decision making by providing cost effective measures and prevent implementing measures that are (socially) counterproductive.

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3 FIELD MISSION REPORT “KALAY”

3.1 Observations

The second subteam visited the flood affected area of Kalay and the region around Monywa, where recent floods in Chindwin River threatened the stability of dikes and structures.

As described in Section 1.1, heavy rains resulted in widespread flooding across twelve of the Country’s 14 states and regions. Also Sagaing region in the North was heavily affected. The floodings in the valley of Kalay were unprecedented; many houses were flooded to their roofs (some 8 m), which had never occurred in the past.

The Figures below show the flooded area (left) and contour lines of equal elevation (right). The valley, in which Kalay is located, can be considered a “bath tub” filled by three main rivers and several small tributaries. Water flows out of this “bath tub” through only one river branch (Myittha River) between Kalay and Kalewa. At Kalewa the Myittha River flows into Chindwin River, which runs further to the south.

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Flood map of Kalay valley in August 2015 (left) and digital elevation map (right)

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Map of river system (left) and schematic functioning of system (bath tub) (right) During the field trip the flooded areas and rivers flowing through this valley were visited together with representatives of the Irrigation Department and DWIR. Although water returned back to the main channels of the rivers, the consequences of the flood event were still clearly visible. At the visited sites these consequences were observed and protection measures taken or planned were discussed with experts of the responsible authorities and residents (on-spot capacity building).

The google map below shows the followed route of the team in the period September 1- 3, 2015. In the map the numbers indicate the visited sites. Below, the observations for each of these locations are summarized.

Route of the field visits on September 1-3 2015 and main points of interest

Location 1. Flooded area near Kalay – Myittha River

On the 1st of September the water level in Myittha was back to ‘normal’ conditions. However, the impact of the disastrous events from July/August were still visible.

Myittha river (left) and houses flooded up to the roof top in August 2015

During the flood the (non-protected) banks were overtopped, flooding the houses up to the top of their roofs. The water level in the river rose gradually in several days giving

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the villagers time to evacuate. The houses were flooded during a period of about 8 days. Refugees from Kalay and other villages were accommodated in temporary refugee camps, run by various local and international aid agencies.

Although the flow velocities in the river were large, the velocities on the floodplains were moderate, causing no real additional damage.

The water levels at Kalay gauging station in 2015 were almost 8 m higher than the last severe flood event in 2009. The recurrence period for the 2015 flood was not estimated yet, but expected to be very extreme (100-years recurrence interval or more). In the discussions we agreed, this should be the first topic to be further assessed (see also the remark in Section 2.3 on risk approach). Results of this analysis are essential for future decisions on the required flood protection levels in the region and the related measured (dikes, protection, river widening, dam operation, etc.).

Flooded house (up to the roof top) and wooden debris

Location 2. Tributary – of Myittha river, west of Kalay

This river comes from the hills west of Kalay, flowing to Myittha River. The flood in July was a flash flood in which large morphological changes occurred. At certain locations the banks were severely eroded. The several meters high vertical eroded banks threaten the stability of roads and infrastructure.

In the river bed huge amounts of wooden debris could still be found. This must have been much more as it was reported that already 70% of the wooden debris had been removed by villagers.

Although landslides upstream may have been the source of wooden debris, also illegal logging is expected to be an important source for these large amounts of wooden debris.

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Eroded banks (left) and wooden debris in river bed after the flood

Location 3. Tributary of Nayizaya River – Se Gyi Chaung River

Also coming from the hills west of Kalay, the Se Gyi Chaung River overtopped its bank during the flash flood in August. The huge amounts of sediment were deposited on the banks and in the villages (up to 3 m of silt deposits). Also eroding banks threatened houses.

During the flood, the river also eroded new channels in the plains, south of the existing main branch (see Figure below, left panel). The floodings and new eroded channels damaged agricultural fields.

DWIR reacted on the new situation and threats by closing of the original channel and training the newly eroded channel to become the new main branch (see Figure below, right panel). These plans were discussed with specialists from DWIR.

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Emergency bridge over new eroded channel (left) and sketch of DWIR plans for making a shortcut channel (right) Location 4. Myittha River in narrow section to Chindwin River

The Myittha river in this section could be a bottleneck for relieving the flood situation in the Kalay region when:

- The discharge capacity of the river is insufficient; - The water level at the Chindwin River at Kalewa influences the water levels at Kalay.

The second point could be checked during the field visit. The head difference between the confluence of Myittha River and Kalewa and Nayizaya River (the upstream point of the Myittha River section through the hilly section) and Kalewa (downstream point of reach) is more than 20 m in flood conditions. The backwater effect of Chindwin River will thus not be felt at Kalay.

DWIR however identified four bottlenecks in this section of Myittha River (for example see Figure below). These bottlenecks could reduce the flow capacity of the river during floods. Reduced discharge capacity could result in higher flood levels in Kalay Valley (the “bath tub” situation mentioned above).

During the field visit options were discussed to widen the bottlenecks. Whether this would be feasible depends on how effective it would be to lower the upstream extreme water levels. And of course if the associated costs justify the reduction in flood risks of the upstream areas. For further analyses mathematical (or analytical) modelling and investigation of the soil are required.

One of the four bottlenecks in the Myittha River upstream of Kalewa.

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In the narrow river sections also severe erosion was observed. Although not all visited places were flooded, erosion at the toe of banks induced slides of soil damaging roads and infrastructure higher up (see Figure below).

Damage to road due to mass movement induced by bank erosion.

In Kalewa Myittha River and Chindwin River meet. In both rivers gauging stations are present just upstream of the confluence (see pictures below). Around 30 years of water level data is available. However, for determining discharges these gauging stations are inadequate, because of the backwater effect of the other river. For flood frequency analysis and flood forecasting discharges are required. For this purpose, additional gauging sites should be installed.

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Gauging stations in Chindwin River (left) and Myittha River (right) just upstream of the confluence

Location 5. Yazagyo dam – Nayizaya River

The multipurpose Yazagyo dam in Nayizaya River started operating in 2015. The reservoir has been built by the Irrigation Department, and is meant to provide irrigation and power. The area of the reservoir is about 4 km2. Flood control is not one of the purposes of the dam, as it isn’t for the majority of the dams of the Irrigation Department. We discussed with specialists of the Irrigation Department whether the flood control purpose should be added for future multi-purpose dams.

The reservoir was completely filled at July 7th. On the 9th of July spillway operation started. On the 28th of July the water level in the reservoir was only 4 m below crest level and emergency actions were carried out (sand bags for stability). When on the 1st of August large amounts of wooden debris entered the reservoir and partially blocked the spillway, the situation became more critical.

Thanks to the availability of heavy machinery at the dam site, the congestion of the spillway by wooden debris could be removed and the wooden debris could be conveyed through the spillway to the downstream river. On the 2nd of August the water level in the reservoir dropped by about 4 m to achieve a safe situation. The extra water stored during the preceding days was released quickly when the congestion was removed. This could have worsened the flood event downstream of the dam.

As the large amounts of wooden debris were caused by landslides and especially trees which were chopped down because of the reservoir, but not removed yet, it is not expected this situation will occur again this seriously during flood events to come.

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Spillway of Yazagyo dam (left) and wooden debris in channel downstream (right). Note: six elephants of the Ministry of Environmental Conservation and Forestry helped to remove the wooden debris in the channel

Location 6. Myittha River, bank erosion and wooden debris

On the 3rd of September the Myittha river between Kalay and the confluence with Manipur River was visited. The village of Nat Chaung was flooded in August, strong outer bend erosion occurred and large amounts of wooden debris damaged the houses.

Bank erosion (> 30 m?, left) and wooden debris in the village (right)

DWIR presented a plan for bank protection (Figure below) as the cut-off initiated in 2014 apparently had not relieved the situation.

The approach of DWIR was discussed, which is entirely based on expert judgement with no modelling, as well as the necessity for additional groynes (black indicated on the map). These discussion items coincide remarkably well with the same discussions held by the other subteam in the Delta (chapter 2). Suggestions were made for:

 Experiments with other protection structures of wood, such as bandels.

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 Morphological considerations for river reaches instead of local focus. With wider scope of measures, also upstream and downstream consequences will be taken into account.  Morphological modelling (desire of DWIR).

Design map for bank protection and proposed adaptations to protect the bend as a whole.

Location 7. Manipur River near confluence

In Manipur river, just upstream of the confluence with Myittha River, the river branch eroded rapidly causing damage to village Myalk Si. Seven houses were lost and the situation is considered still critical with high velocities and turbulence in the branch and high erosive cliffs.

The villagers took action on their own and were working on closing the branch with wooden structures filled with sand bags (right picture below). The idea is that this solution forces the river to flow through an existing other branch, so reducing the erosive forces close to the village. During the field trip, while debating with the local residents, DWIR offered (financial) support and assistance to finalise the works on short notice.

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Strong erosion and high velocities (left) and closure attempt by citizens (right)

On Friday 4th of September Monywa on Chindwin River were visited with regional experts of the Irrigation Department and DWIR. The first stop was at the important harbour (jetty) of Monywa (location 8). Subsequently a dike breach location (location 9) and several dike sections were visited.

Visited locations at Monywa Location 8. Jetty Monywa

The harbour of Monywa is important for the local economy. In order to maintain sufficiently deep water along the left bank of the river, DWIR constructed two longitudinal structures near Monywa. The efficiency of these structures was discussed during the field trip.

Along the harbour facilities the flood levels in August 2015 were close to the crest level of the dikes and embankments. The Irrigation Department then decided to heighten the flood walls in this reach with 3 feet. This work was almost finished on the 4th of September and can be recognised in the Figure below at the red arrow.

It was noted that although the quay wall was heightened, its foundation – if existing at all - was not protected. At several locations along the wall, toe erosion already started to undermine the structure (see blue arrow in the photo below). This may threaten the stability of the entire structure during a next flood event. And with that the safety of the many inhabitants of the town.

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Heightening flood wall and erosion at toe of structure

Location 9. Dike breach at inlet structure

During the August flood a dike breached at the connection point with an inlet structure. The breach was repaired by a temporary flood wall and repair works. During the field trip it was concluded that under and on both sides screens to avoid future seepage should be made. Under the existing inlet structure such protection was absent, which may have caused the breach (in Dutch: onderloopsheid). Ideas on how such structural improvement could look like and how it could be implemented were discussed and sketched (Figure below, right picture).

Temporary protection at dike breach (left) and exchange on seepage protection alternatives (right)

Other dike sections were visited as well and similar to the activities by the Delta- subteam, the use of the hand-held ground drill was demonstrated and trained. The instruments were officially handed over to the local representatives from the Irrigation Department as a gift.

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The poor state of the other dike sections cannot be solved on short notice and may not need be as critical as the situation at the harbour of Monywa. It would be a good first step to implement the good practice of inspection, maintenance and repair as this is done by the Irrigation Department in the Delta region. A campaign can be started at a later stage to explain to local residents some do’s and don’ts for dikes.

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Examples of what is not allowed on and near dikes (upper left: sidewalk on crest, upper right: cattle on dike, lower left: excavation of crest, lower right: rubbish next to mile stone)

3.2 Critical situations

The situation at Kalay remains critical as a structural solution to avoid inundation under similar extreme conditions cannot easily be developed and implemented. It is important to first have knowledge about the probability of flooding, on the basis of which actual current safety levels can be assessed.

The field trip to Monywa showed the excessive erosion at the toe of the quay wall, and the poor state of maintenance of the dike sections both upstream and downstream of it.

The team concludes that the erosion at the harbour is critical and requires immediate action. It is likely that under new extreme river runoff conditions the wall will be undermined at the toe and collapse. This must be avoided as such collapse poses serious threats to the people and assets behind the wall.

As a minimum, local authorities should be informed about the situation; river discharges and developments at the toe of the wall should be closely monitored and enough equipment (rock, sandbags) should be put in place so that emergency action can be carried out once this is deemed necessary.

However, it would be better to build a toe protection by a filter and stable top layer of rock (this will of course impact the depth in front of the wall, but this does not seem to be a problem because also now the depths in front of the wall are limited).

3.3 Flood forecasting

In preparation of the DRR team mission, representatives from the Myanmar Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation (MoAI) and Ministry of Transport (MoT) have expressed interest in improvement of their flood forecasting capabilities. The need for this became apparent during the field trip when it turned out that the GLOFAS and GLOFFIS global flow forecasting systems were able to predict a flooding near Hkamti on September 3rd, several days in advance. The existing forecasting system in Myanmar did not predict this flood.

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A regression-based statistical model uses gauge readings at upstream water level stations to produce forecasts for the lower Ayeyarwady River. This type of forecasting can only produce forecasts for gauging locations that are downstream of the predictor- gauging stations. Moreover, it can only produce forecasts up to a lead time that is equal to the time a flood wave takes to travel from the predictor gauging stations to the forecast location. Beyond that, further upstream conditions and the weather become determining factors.

The challenges for improving the forecasting in Myanmar are thus twofold:

 To generate forecasts for locations that are currently not included in the statistical model, in particular locations in the upstream parts of the Ayeyarwady River and tributaries  To extend the forecast lead time where possible

Possible improvements – short term

Forecasting in Myanmar can be improved on a short term and with relative ease by using the global forecasting systems GLOFAS or GLOFFIS (described below). GLOFAS is based on ECMWF global weather forecasts. GLOFFIS uses weather forecasts from ECMWF and GFS. Both systems use physically-based hydrological models on a relatively coarse scale (0.1 degree). In general, they produce accurate discharge forecasts for relatively large catchments of 100 km2 or more. For usage in Myanmar, the discharges need to be converted to water levels by using a rating curve. New locations can be added to the existing set of forecasting locations. The forecast lead time for the current forecasts on the Ayeyarwady River can be extended by using the global forecasts directly or as input to the existing statistical model.

For smaller catchments in northern Myanmar, such as the Kalay valley, new statistical models can be developed to predict water levels at downstream locations from upstream gauge readings. Preliminary results for Kalay look promising (see below).

GLOFAS

GLOFAS is the global version of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS), developed by a consortium of European partners, including JRC and ECMWF. It produces hydrological (flow) forecasts for all major rivers around the world, with up to 30 days lead time. The forecasts are distributed for free, but a usage agreement needs to be signed to obtain access. More information can be found at: www.globalfloods.eu.

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GLOFIS forecast for Sagaing on August 31th, 2015.

GLOFFIS

GLOFFIS is a global hydrological forecasting product developed by Deltares from the Netherlands. The physically-based hydrological model PCRGLOB runs under a FEWS system and receives global ensemble weather forecasts from ECMWF and GFS daily. Free access can be arranged on similar terms as for the GLOFAS system. Within Myanmar, three output stations are currently configured: Hkamti, Sagaing and Toungoo.

GLOFFIS screenshot, showing an overview of forecast locations in India and South East Asia.

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Statistical model

A preliminary test version of a statistical model for predicting water levels at Kalay, based on gauge readings at Gangaw was developed during the field trip to Kalay and Monywa. Results of this very basic statistical model indicate that the water levels during the 2015 flooding of Kalay could have been predicted at two days lead time at 2m accuracy, which is promising given the simplicity of this model and the limited calibration data set. The regression equation reads as follows: h( t ) 2.16 h ( t  2)  267 Kalay Gangaw Where: hKalay(t) = water level (in cm) at Kalay station at time t hGanagw(t-2) = water level at Gangaw station (in cm) two days before time t

Improvements of this statistical model are almost certainly possible by including gauge readings from other upstream gauges. This should be attempted before the model is actually used for operational forecasting.

Kalay water levels, observed and as predicted by the preliminary statistical model.

Possible improvements – long term

With more available time and budget, a sophisticated operational forecasting and flood early warning system for the whole of Myanmar could be developed and installed. This system would typically use hydrological and hydraulic models to simulate the flow in the main river system instead of a statistical model. The physically-based models can provide forecasts for all locations of interest at longer lead times. Reservoir models would calculate the effect of dams and reservoirs on the flow and 2D flood models would calculate the flood extent and flood depth in case of overland flow. The same model can be used for flood risk mapping and to calculate the effect of proposed structural measures.

Gauge data would be loaded automatically from a telemetry system or imported manually for gauges that are not (yet) connected to the telemetry network. Weather

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forecasts would be downloaded from ftp or other data sources automatically and scheduled regularly to check for updates. Forecast model runs would be scheduled whenever new input data becomes available to produce an updated forecast. The forecasts would be automatically processed to reports and sent to webpages and mobile devices for usage by water managers throughout the country. When the water level in a certain water body or river reaches the danger level, a warning message would be issued automatically and send by e-mail or text messages to the water authorities responsible for that water system.

To support such an operational and automated forecasting system Deltares has developed Delft-FEWS. Delft-FEWS supports dozens of data formats for importing and exporting data and a plethora of hydrological or hydraulic models can be run from FEWS. The system can be configured to the needs of the forecasting agency. Delft-FEWS It the most-used system of its kind in the world.

FEWS systems for US-NWS (left) and UK Environment Agency (right).

Early warning

The improvement of the flood forecasting system in Myanmar should go hand in hand with adjustments of the usage of the forecasts and warnings. For example, a longer lead time implies more time for emergency response actions. It is thus recommended to review the response procedures in conjunction with the update of the forecasting systems.

Response actions can be classified as follows:

- Early warning and preparation: notifying authorities, putting emergency aid forces on stand-by, transporting emergency equipment to locations at risk

- Emergency mitigation measures: closing dike openings, emergency flood protection (sandbags), reservoir draw down

- Damage control: early warning of the public, evacuation, organising emergency aid and recovery

Warnings to the public require special attention. Early warning of the public should be done such that they will reach the largest portion of the people under threat and with clear instructions for action. The optimal means to issue a warning can vary per area. In urban areas a siren or loudspeaker may be appropriate. In more remote areas, warnings by radio, voice or text message via GSM or data messages via the 3G network are more efficient.

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Myanmar has a limited communication infrastructure especially in remotely regions. Moreover, even in cases when technology has been effective in providing sufficient lead- time for local communities to prepare, lives have still been lost and property damaged because communities did not know how to respond.

Flood forecasting information through various media.

3.4 Summary of on-site Capacity Building

Capacity Building

At each of the visited locations the team provided hands-on training on the following topics: management of dikes, controlling river dynamics, and early flood warning systems. In summary, this support included the following:

Dikes:

• Practical use of inspection instruments like ‘gouge’ and ground drill. The instruments were handed over as a gift of the team to the experts from the irrigation Department

• Explain what human actions undermine the stability of dikes (describe do’s and don’ts). A few examples have been mentioned in Section 3.2.

• Technical methods to connect a hydraulic structure with a dike, such as screens to avoid seepage and piping.

River dynamics:

• The importance of using the available data and what can be done with it. Combining available data sources from different Departments and other sources

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(Google-Earth for example), could already lead to a better understanding of the current river dynamics. Improving the set-up of the current gauging system.

• Forecasts of future river dynamics can be made based on data analysis. Computer modelling (hydrodynamics first) is an important tool to predict in advance the impacts of any river improvement project (such as excavating a shortcut channel). Capacity building of government officials on the use of these models would be very relevant for a better understanding of the river, but also, to make (different) decisions or formulate advice on works, prioritization of investments in the river systems.

• Optimize reservoir management as a means to lower extreme water levels.

Risk approach and early warning systems

 Analysis historic data on water levels, extreme events, etc., as to obtain a better understanding of current safety levels.

 Characteristics of a risk approach were discussed, indicating that investing in water safety should be in accordance with the values at stake.

 Options for the development and implementation of an early warning system in line with the items mentioned in Section 3.3.

Some considerations on suggested projects

During the various meetings some considerations were shared with regard to very specific projects that are being considered by the Myanmar Government. Below these considerations are summarized for the Kalay / Monywa area. Note that it is probably not a complete list. After proper studies, there will undoubtedly be more aspects that need further attention before actually implementing the proposed works.

Project idea P3: remove the bottlenecks in the river between Kalay and Kalaywa

By giving this part of the Myitthar River more space, it is expected that the discharge capacity under extreme conditions will improve, so that the water level in the Kalay “bathtub” will decrease as explained before. Removing rapids may also improve the navigability of this part of the water transport system.

Considerations shared:

a) It will be an expensive and difficult operation to widen and deepen the various bottlenecks substantially. It is not certain at all if this measure will effectively lower the water levels under extreme conditions up to Kalay township and surroundings. It can therefore not be predicted beforehand whether the (significant) investments are cost-effective in lowering flood levels and flood risks.

b) It is also unknown what the effect would be on the receiving Chindwin River and the water levels in Kalaywa. Flood risks further downstream could theoretically become higher, so it is essential to know these impacts in advance.

c) Removing bottlenecks lower water levels upstream and may lead to bed erosion in these reaches. This eroded material may settle downstream causing bed aggradation. These morphological changes need to be assessed beforehand.

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d) Before actually starting an operation like this, it is important to first make hydraulic computations showing the effect on water discharges and water levels under a variety of conditions; each with their own frequency of occurrence. Based on the model results, the reduction in flood risks (if at all) can be computed, which can then be compared with the expected costs for the measures. In addition the morphological consequences should be assessed, for example using an morphological numerical model.

Project idea P4: built a dike around Kalay, so that it will be safe under conditions that occurred during the July/August flood

When the President U Thein Sein visited Kalay region on 1st August, he made clear that such disasters should not happen again. One of the ways to do that could be building a dike around Kalay.

Considerations shared:

a) Parts of the Town were not inundated , so it must first be determined which parts of the inundated areas need to be protected. This is also a matter of determining the economic value of what was at stake (potential economic losses) versus the costs associated with protecting it by for instance a dike.

b) It is also important to know the frequency of occurrence of the recent flood event and any impact of deforestation and/or climate change on this. If for example the return period would be one in a million year (10 -6), then from a rational risk approach it would not be logical to protect the area for such very rare events. If on the other hand, based on a combined statistical analysis (e.g. mixed probability distributions of historic cyclone and common rainfall events) the frequency of occurrence would be 10-2, then it could make sense to reduce the risk.

c) Lowering risk can be done by either providing protection (building a dike) to a certain safety level, or reducing the losses if another flood occurs (retreat (e.g. spatial planning), lowering flood levels, early warning). Both options should be considered before making a decision on what needs to be done to avoid a repetition of the July/August floods.

d) Constructing a dike around Kalay would require adaptations to the water system in Kalay. Tributaries of Myitthar River flowing through Kalay would need to be diverted during flood conditions, so as to prevent flooding of the city from that side.

Project idea P5: Make meander short-cut channels combined with groynes for example at Zinkalin village (Figure below; source: DWIR), Aungmyinthar village and Natnan village; and/or dredge secondary channels at certain locations along the river, so as to protect banks endangered by erosion or to improve conditions for navigation.

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Plan for bank protection and new channel near Zinkalin Village (left) and dredging a seconday channel at Monywa Township (right), source: DWIR

During the July-August floods, serious bank erosion occurred which caused damages to houses and roads. The photo below (obtained from DWIR) shows bank erosion at Pwint Phyu. By dredging meander shortcuts, combined with groynes or other structures, the idea is to keep the main river channel away from the bank, hopefully preventing (future) bank erosion.

Source: DWIR

Considerations shared:

a) The plans presented by DWIR for flood protection by dredging additional channels are in accordance with the principles behind the Dutch river improvement strategy called “Room for the River”. Changing the hydrodynamics and morphology at one location will have an impact on the river upstream and downstream. Situations can become worse at other locations, which can be assessed by numerical modelling.

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b) On a more local scale, short-cut channels and river training works may also change the patterns of erosion/deposition. Also these must be predicted in advance using morphological models to optimize the proposed scheme.

c) Design of river engineering measures such as groynes and bank protection is purely based on experience and local knowledge. (Regional) experience with protection works using locally available material (e.g. wood) could be used to optimize protection schemes.

d) A first step in modelling is the set-up of a hydrodynamic model to assess the discharge distribution and flow patterns in the area, which can be used to semi- qualitatively assess the morphological behavior. If sufficient sediment measurements are available or can be executed within a short term, the model can even be extended towards a morphological model. This model can assess the overall morphological impact of various design options being able to select the most cost effective measure.

e) The costs for carrying out numerical modelling can generally be defended by the savings that can be achieved with an optimized design. So, from an economic point of view numerical modelling is a wise investment.

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4 SUGGESTIONS FOR CONTINUED CAPACITY BUILDING

4.1 Introduction

This mission’s five objectives were (Section 1.4):

• Assess the necessity for immediate action in the visited areas; • Give suggestions for Modernization of techniques, tools and approaches; • Advice on Capacity building to implement these effectively; • Provide Assistance on data management, including early warning systems; • Comment on approaches to prioritize measures.

The first objective has been delivered through the two field trips. The findings are given in Sections 2.2 and 3.2 for the Ayeyarwaddy Delta and Kalay/Monywa respectively. The other objectives are more related to capacity building, which is an ongoing process in Myanmar.

During the field trips, the DRR experts analysed the various flood safety related issues, and had constructive discussions with the accompanying experts from Irrigation Department and DWIR. The team that visited the Delta had a separate feedback workshop in Pathein where all inventoried items were discussed in more detail. Both sub teams provided on-spot capacity training, which was very much appreciated by the recipient experts.

From re-active to pro-active The key issue overarching all topics is perhaps that the present approach in Myanmar is largely reactive. Action is generally only taken once a problem has occurred. Given the resources and time available such response is generally adequate. An example is the piping events during high water in the delta. These are spotted generally in time and emergency response works are carried out efficiently.

A proactive approach has advantages as it lowers flood risks and can avoid dangerous situations which in the future may be less manageable. An example is how the dynamics of river bends are being followed. Only once it becomes too dangerous, measures such as cut-off channels are planned. However, there is a lot of data collected over the years, which could also be used, ideally in combination with computer modelling, to forecast such morphological changes.

In the next Sections, concrete suggestions are given for ongoing support, aiming to make the Myanmar approach towards water management more proactive. The suggestions cover a wide palette of topics. Some of the topics will fit easily with other Dutch - Myanmar initiatives, especially those related to the work carried out by the HEIM team (Chapter 1). Aligning all activities is therefore important (Section 5.1).

4.2 Dikes

D1: Prikstok

With particularly the prikstok, much more spatial information can be collected of the current status of the embankments. This can also be done after the monsoon period, so

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that weak spots can be proactively spotted before they manifest themselves during the wet periods.

We suggest that a large number (50?) of prikstoks are produced in Myanmar and distributed over the dike inspectors of the Irrigation department. This must be combined with specific field training of senior inspectors, such that they can make sure that all dike inspectors get appropriate training in the use of the prikstok by experts from The Netherlands as well (training the trainers).

D2 Ground drill and gouge

When embankment sections are strengthened it is important to have reliable data of the subsoil. Otherwise it is not sure how the dike’s cross-section will respond to for instance an increase in crest height or an adjustment of the inner slope. The hand-held ground drill as well as the gouge, as was demonstrated during the mission, are simple to operate instruments that can provide such additional information.

We suggest that a sufficient amount (10?) of these two types of instruments are delivered to Myanmar Irrigation Department, including training in the use of it. Such training can be combined with the proposed training for Activity D1 (Prikstok) and should also consider the training demands under Activity D3 (Upgrade design tools).

D3 Upgrade design tools

One of the options to reduce the probability of disastrous floods is to increase the height of the dike crests. Geotechnical speaking this is a complex operation that needs careful preparation. One element of such preparation is obtaining sufficient field information (see D2); another element is computer modelling. Geotechnical computations are not entirely new to Myanmar, but it seems that an upgrade would be beneficial for better designs.

We suggest that an expert on geostability modelling explores options to modernize the modelling capabilities, installs new software (preferably freeware) and gives proper training to a limited number of geotechnical experts from the Irrigation Department.

D4 Data storage: the inspection app

Inspectors from Dutch Waterboards use an application tool (an ‘app’) that can be used with smartphones. The app guides the inspectors in the field with a menu that describes all information that needs to be collected. In this way, all information from the field is collected in a consistent manner. Data that has been collected is stored temporarily on the smartphone. Once internet (wifi) is available the stored data can be synchronized (uploaded) with a central data storage facility. This central data base is the basis for making decisions on repair works or emergency actions. Using such an app increases the capacity to collect more data in a consistent way, which makes a more proactive approach towards the maintenance of embankments possible.

We suggest that the current app is being modified to be used in Myanmar and that proper training is done on the use of it. The specifications of the adjusted requirements can be developed by the Instructor that takes care of Activity D1 (and D2). A programmer will then need to adjust the app, after which it must be installed on smartphones of senior inspectors in Myanmar. A next step is to set up the central data storage system, such that it smoothly runs with the app. After the system has been set up and tested, training needs to be organized (similar as under D1: training of the trainers).

D5 Review of the current ‘embankment management guide’

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To better understand the current technical approaches in the management of the embankments, it is necessary to compare the existing guide on “Maintenance and Care of Embankments” with similar Dutch guidelines. From a quick review on site, we concluded that although all failure mechanisms of dikes are properly addressed, that an update would be beneficial for the current maintenance processes in Myanmar.

In addition to such an update we suggest to prepare a list of do’s and don’ts about the practical use of embankment areas. In Chapters 2 and 3 we already gave examples for don’ts such as trees on dikes, disposal of waste on outer slopes, or the erection of concrete structures on or in the dike. We suggest that such list of do’s and don’ts is illustrated with clear photos, so that it can also be used to be shared with local people.

4.3 River dynamics

R1 Data management

Both Irrigation Department and DWIR, and likely other departments as well, collect valuable data on river behaviour/dynamics. Such data comprise data on bathymetry, flow velocities, water levels and spatial usages. These different sets of data, many of which are not easily available in digital format, are not used in a joint, consistent manner. More lessons could be drawn from the available data sources, for instance on the morphological behaviour of river bends, if data sources are digitised and stored in a central data base (with standardised formats).

We suggest that a GIS / river expert makes an inventory of river related data sources and advise on ways to centralise and upgrade these data such that more information becomes available to predict the river dynamics.

R2 improve the capacity to forecast river changes (Zalun)

The current practise in case of river dynamics undermining a nearby embankment is to wait until the a river bend is close to the toe of the dike and then make a secondary dike behind the first (threatened) dike. If toe erosion continues to undermine the first dike, then a meander cut-off is planned.

At Zalun we discussed a plan for such new meander cut-off. Our understanding of the plan is that it was prepared based on professional judgement. However, elements of the plan, such as three dams, may not be necessary at all, or perhaps even work counter- productive. There is also no assessment of the potential upstream (erosion) and downstream (sedimentation) impacts. Although data has been collected on depths and flow velocities, little is known about the river bed composition. The latter however, is important to know so that the morphological response of the measure can be predicted beforehand.

We understood that the Zalun shortcut-case is a project close to implementation, which makes this case particularly interesting for optimization and as a pilot to enhance the capacity of DWIR to better predict the river dynamics. Based on that, they can also improve their design, probably leading to a reduction in costs for the whole scheme. The pilot starts with a qualitative morphological assessment of the river system around the proposed cut-off location; determining the historical development of the river section using aerial photographs and measurements of bathymetry and river discharge. The

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second stage is to set up a two-dimensional flow model of the river section, or even extend this model towards a 3D morphological model if sufficient data is available.

We suggest that a Dutch river modeller / engineer prepares the numerical models in the Netherlands and then install both the software (we suggest to use Delft3D modelling software, which is freeware) and the model on a computer at DWIR’s office. The model will then be used and the cut-off scheme is being engineered together with two or three DWIR modelling experts. It is important that these local experts have a good background in physics and modelling (at least at M.Sc. level) to make the training effective.

It is noted that similar short-cut and training projects are seriously considered along Myittha river (Kalay). These projects can also be supported in the way as descrived above for Zalun: analysis historical dynamics, modelling and optimization of design. It is up to the Myanmar authorities to decide which cases are the most suitable to start upgrading the predictive capabilities of DWIR.

R3 Studying on the impact of dike extension at Tabaung

The Ayeyarwaddy delta hardly has enclosed dike rings. Most areas are protected by dike sections that prevent flooding from upstream direction, but downstream the water can flow around the end of the U-shaped dike, causing inundation of the “protected” area behind the dikes. Especially in the area near the township of Tabaung (Pathein river) lots of inundation occurred during the 2015 flood.

An option that is being considered by the Irrigation Department is to extend the dike in southward direction. By doing so, less severe inundation is expected at Tabaung. However, it is not known what will happen with (extreme) water levels upstream Pathein River (likely to get higher). Knowing these impacts beforehand can avoid spending lots of money on solutions that may not be effective in practice. Or, if the impacts remain acceptable, the predictions can be used to convince policy makers that extending the dike is indeed a good investment.

We suggest to develop backwater curves for the current situation and to make projections for the future situation with dike extension. These forecasts will be supported by numerical modelling, similar as under activity R2(improve the capacity to forecast river changes; Zalun).

R4 Van Veen grab

Data on river bed composition is largely absent. Such information however, is important to understand and predict morphological behaviour of specific river sections (such as at Zalun: activity R2).

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We suggest to deliver an appropriate number (5?) of 2L Van Veen grabs. These are hand-held simple instruments to collect samples from the river bed. A visual inspection of the so collected sediment sample gives a good first impression of the river bed composition. Lab tests would provide more information, but this is not considered to be a priority now. The use of the grab as well as how to visually judge the sample needs to be trained in the field. This activity could be combined with activity R2 (Zalun).

4.4 Early warning system

E1 Setting up, installing and training in the use of a flood forecasting system

Some elements of early warning systems are presented in Section 3.4. We suggest that the following activities are undertaken to improve the forecasting and early warning capabilities in Myanmar.  Make a connection to the GLOFAS/GLOFFIS global flood forecasting systems. This requires some administrative actions (such as signing usage agreements), ICT installations and training of Myanmar staff about the background of the forecasts and their usage.  Develop rating curves for converting the discharge forecasts from GLOFAS/GLOFFIS into water levels. If needed, additional forecasting locations can be configured in GLOFFIS. Staff in Yangon will be trained in the usage of this method.  Develop a statistical forecasting model for Kalay as a first case, using the preliminary regression model (Section 3.4) as a starting point. The regression analysis and model development will be done together with local staff in order to train them in this skill. After developing the model for Kalay, local staff will be able to set up similar models for other regions.  Perform a review of the current warning and emergency response procedures and suggest extensions or adjustments to optimize the use of the enhanced forecasting capabilities from the previous activities.

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These activities require limited time and effort, but they will lead to a considerable advancement in forecasting and early warning capabilities for Myanmar. We suggest that all activities mentioned above are taken care of by a forecasting expert and that appropriate hands-on training to two or three experts is provided. The expected outcome is an extension of the forecast lead time, of the number of forecast locations and suggestions for putting these improved forecasts to use.

4.5 Risk Approach

The basic principles of a rational risk approach were presented during the 5 September wrap-up session. A necessary first requirement for developing a risk approach is data analysis to obtain statistical information on frequency of occurrences.

Reference was made to the Flood Risk document (FLORIS) prepared by the Dutch government on how such rational risk approach has been developed and applied on all water defences in The Netherlands (copies of which are available at the Dutch Mission’s post in Yangon). Note: Between 15-19 September, a number of copies have been shared with officials of DWIR and Irrigation Department and the Advisory Group of the NWRC. It showed to be a good instrument to prioritise measures in times of limited budgets. It also gave valuable insight to the decision-makers on actual flood risks so that a comparison can be made with other types of risks a society generally undergoes.

R1 Prepare flood hazard maps

Before a risk approach can be developed and implemented in Myanmar (as proposed under Activity R2), a first action would be to prepare flood hazard maps. These are maps of certain flood prone areas showing what could happen under 1/50, 1/100, 1/200 years conditions. For now and in the future (2030, 2050 and 2100) for a few climate change scenarios.

Flood hazard maps differ from flood maps such that they are projections for what can be expected under extreme conditions with a specific frequency of occurrence. It is a first step towards a risk approach in decision-making. Flood hazard maps can be used for planning purposes and to compare areas. It can also be used for investment purposes as it shows areas that may be less favourable than others.

We suggest to jointly work with experts from Myanmar on the preparation of a first set of flood hazard maps for a region yet to be decided. The experts will be trained to develop similar maps for other regions in Myanmar as well, without further support from the Dutch experts.

R2 Develop and implement the rational risk approach for Nyaung Done Town

We suggest to apply the basic philosophy of the rational risk approach to Nyaung Done Township or Kalay region (R3).

Nyaung Done Township is located on the bifurcation between Ayeyarwady and Pan Hlaing Rivers. The current protection system is not adequate to survive under more extreme water levels than the ones that occurred in July/August. The safety is further jeopardized

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by the ongoing erosion at the toe of the dike (where a revetment has been built) as a result of a migrating river channel.

The probability of breaching of the protection system can be computed by considering different water levels each with their own expected frequency of occurrences. The morphodynamic changes in the river bifurcation point must be considered as well in this assessment. The next step is to calculate the impact (in terms of economic losses and in terms of expected casualties) of different scenarios of dike breaching. Multiplying the probability of floods with the corresponding consequences of any such flood, gives quantitative data on the actual flood risks.

The next step then will be to make preliminary designs of measures that lower the calculated flood risks. These can include river training works, or dike improvements works, but can also deal with proper evacuation methods or rescue sites for the inhabitants. By doing so, it will become clear which measures lowers the flood risk most effectively. The same can be done for determining the measure which lowers the risk as much as possible – given a unit price of investment.

We suggest that a Dutch team of two experts set up the framework for analysis in the Netherlands and then go to the site to further elaborate on the assumptions and potential protection measures. A number of experts from various related Departments can then be trained in the set-up and use of this approach.

R3 As R2, but for Kalay

A second specific area that can be used to apply a full risk-based approach is Kalay town. Here, the following steps are proposed:

1. Determine the frequency of the 2015 flood event using available data and mixed probability (taking into account normal rainfall events and events influenced by cyclones); 2. Generate rough flood maps based on water levels and digital elevation model; 3. Determine optimal protection level based on damage assessed and cost of measures.

4.6 Stakeholder involvement and governance

S1 Include local stakeholder involvement and governance issues in the case under R1

The risk based approach suggested in Section 4.5 is not merely a technical procedure. Local involvement is important as to understand in detail what are the potential damages and threats of a dike failure. Also, local participation in developing protection measures is important as per today, much of the space that would be required for dike improvement works is being used by local people. Including them in the process will smoothen the implementation of selected measures at a later stage.

The risk approach is also about governance on various levels. In the end, it remains a political decision which safety level is acceptable or not. While developing the pilot case for Nyaung Done Township (Activity R1) it is therefore important to keep local, regional and national authorities updated on the development and the impact a rational risk approach can have in their decision-making processes.

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5 RECOMMENDATIONS AND PROPOSED FOLLOW-UP ACTIVITIES

5.1 Alignment with other flood safety related initiatives

The DRR team activities are fully aligned with the other related Dutch activities that followed from the MoU signed between the two countries in 2013 (Section 1.3). In a way, the DRR team activities provide more technical capacity building, acknowledging the fact that water management is particularly about governance and co-operation between different Ministries and Departments.

To guarantee that any follow-up activity has a long lasting effect, it is important that Myanmar continues to build on their own coordination mechanisms (in addition to existing Recovery Coordination Committees). In particular between the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation (MoAI, including the Irrigation Department), Ministry of Transport (MoT, including the DWIR and DMH), as well as the Ministry of Environmental Conservation and Forestry (MoECaF). The latter is mentioned here specifically because this Ministry is responsible for watershed management including the forests. Uncontrolled deforestation could have serious (negative) consequences for the drainage capacity of rivers. There are many examples worldwide where flooding can be directly coupled with uncontrolled deforestation upstream the rivers.

During the field trips the experts from the Irrigation Department and the DWIR shared visions and co-operated in a very constructive way with the DRR teams. An idea popped up to hold annual “ground drill games” between the various departments. Such “games” would bring experts from all departments together who have a share in flood management. Increasing friendship will pay back at times of potential disasters.

We recommend to organise a meeting or event to further elaborate on more intense coordination mechanisms between the various Departments.

Not only the Dutch Government, but also other friendly Nations and international organisations such as those affiliated with the United Nations or World Bank, assist Myanmar in managing their water challenges.

The World Bank for example, is currently assisting Myanmar´s Government with three main efforts:  Post Flood Rapid Assessment and Recovery Planning (PFRARP): The Post Disaster Needs Assessment will focus on recovery in all sectors of the economy by gathering secondary data, including assessment efforts led by other donor partner institutions. The mission for this effort officially begun on September 7th for three weeks.  SEA Disaster Risk Management Project: This project is on the identification stage. A World Bank Mission will visit Myanmar from Sept 7th-10th to work closely with the Government to discern Project objectives, component, implementation agency, etc.  Emergency Component build on projects currently in implementation: A number of World Bank financed project currently under implementation, have an "emergency component" (initially without any allocated funding) that allows for the rapid reallocation of funds from other project components to provide emergency recovery and reconstruction support in the event of a natural disaster, emergency and/or catastrophic event. The World Bank and the Government of

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Myanmar are currently in the process of deciding the projects and the amount they will reallocate to flood response. Under Ayeyarwady projects, DWIR and DMH are part of this one and it could be relevant.

We recommend to share and discuss the suggestions mentioned in Chapter 4 with the representatives from World Bank, other donor countries such as Japan, China and South Korea, Private Sector Organizations, as well as other institutions, such as UN-OCHA, UNDP, UN-Habitat, for continued DRR support from the European Commission.

The principle objective of these discussions would be to see how the different items fit best in existing programs or in the programming of new programs. The latter may be particularly relevant for the Ayeyarwaddy Delta, for which presently ideas are being developed for a sustainable planning and flood protection for the whole area (including the coastal zone or lower Delta).

Based on the outcomes of these discussions it can be decided how the different activities can best be funded and planned. This is important since the DRR facility as such is not large enough to cover the expected costs for all activities suggested in Chapter 4.

5.2 Structural measures

A number of easy-to-operate instruments have been introduced during the DRR team mission. These are:

- Prikstok to inspect subsoil conditions on dikes (important for inspection work); - Gouge and hand-held ground drill to obtain data on the soil composition of dikes (important for design work) - Van Veen grab to obtain information on river bed composition (relevant for studying river improvement works)

The prikstok can easily be manufactured in Myanmar if one follows the example handed over to the “delta-team”. We foresee 50 prikstok’s to be distributed among the field workers.

For the gouges and ground drill we foresee that a total of 10 sets (2 of which have already been delivered) would be sufficient for the time being. These sets needs to be purchased in the Netherlands and shipped to Myanmar.

For the van Veen grab, we foresee that 4 grabs (2L) would suffice. Also these grabs need to be purchased in the Netherlands and shipped to Myanmar.

Other structural measures relate to ICT. Software will need to be licensed, which can be costly in case the software is no freeware. Computers may need to be purchased as well with sufficient power to make the types of model computations as mentioned in Section 4.3.

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5.3 Non-structural measures

The leading principle for our suggested follow-up actions is changing the current more reactive approach to (potential) flood disasters into a more upfront proactive approach.

This requires the set-up of some modelling tools in the Netherlands, transfer and installation in Myanmar followed by model improvements and training of Myanmar experts. It includes:

- Early warning system for Kalay (Section 3.3) - Hydrodynamic model for the planned meander cut-off near Zalun (Ayeyarwaddy river), including hydro-morphological interpretation. - Hydrodynamic model to investigate upstream and downstream impacts of potential extension of the dike along the Pathein River. - Hydro-morphological modelling of the river bifurcation at Nyaung Don twon to support the suggested risk approach pilot.

5.4 Planning and Financing

Because all suggested DRR follow-up activities are considered relevant for Myanmar, we haven’t ranked them. Final choices will depend on possible matching funds from other running or expected initiatives (Section 5.1). We recommend to start exploring options for such co-funding as soon as possible.

To support the decision on how to proceed, below table has been prepared showing ranges of costs and required time for each of the suggested activities (see below). It is noted that the figures only serve to give a first estimate of cost ranges (personnel costs only relates to Dutch experts). Proper breakdown of actual costs need to be made at a late stage when more is known about possibilities for co-funding. The sum of all costs gives a total range of 339 – 629 kEUR.

first tentative estimate - only meant for rough indication activity (see Chapter 4) personnel costs material costs duration of duration of [kEUR] (incl travel and activity activity materials) (weeks in NL) (weeks in [kEUR] myanmar) D1 prikstok 8 - 20 4 - 10 0 - 1 1 - 3 D2 ground drill and gouge ('+ 'combine with D1) (+) 3 - 6 (+) 5 - 8 D3 upgrade design tools 12 - 25 4 - 8 1 - 2 1 -2 D4 inspection app 30 - 50 4 - 8 3 - 5 2 - 3 D5 review do's and don'ts 15 - 30 4 - 8 2 - 3 1 - 2

R1 data management 25 - 40 5 - 10 2 - 3 2 -3 R2 improve modelling capabilities (Zalun / Myittha) 40 - 80 10 - 15 4 - 6 2 - 4 R3 study dike extension along Pathein river 25 - 40 5 - 10 2 - 3 2 - 3 R4 Van Veen grab 5 - 10 5 - 8 0 -1 1

E1 flood early warning system Kalay 15 - 30 4 - 8 1 - 2 2 - 3

R1 flood hazard mapping 15 - 25 6 - 15 0 - 1 2 - 4 R2 Risk approach for Nyaung Done Township 40 - 70 10 - 15 3 - 5 3 - 6 R3 Risk approach for Kalay Township 20 - 40 5 - 10 1 - 2 3 - 4

Stakeholder involvement and governance S1 (another expert to team R2) (+) 10 - 20 (+) 5 - 10

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ANNEX A – TEAM MEMBERSAND WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS

DRR Team members

Rob Steijn Team Leader, ARCADIS [email protected] expert water management Hermjan Expert river HKV [email protected] Barneveld systems Eisse Wijma Expert river RHDHV [email protected] systems Joost Beckers Expert flood DELTARES [email protected] forecasting Theo Reuzenaar Expert on dikes Waterboard [email protected] HHNK Rimmer Expert on flood ARCADIS [email protected] Koopmans protection Kyaw Lin Htet Expert on flood RHDHV [email protected] protection (Yangon)

Participants field trip Delta

From DRR: Mr. Rob Steijn Expert water management Mr. Theo Reuzenaar Expert dikes Mr. Eisse Wijma Expert river dynamics Ms. Tanya Huizer Liaison Officer (Water) Mr. Aung Myint Oo Myanmar Water Officer

From Irrigation Department: U Phyo Myint (Deputy-Director, Ayeyawaddy Region) U Tin Tun (Deputy Director, Yangon Region) U Wai Lwin (Assistent Director, Hintada District) U Myint Thein (Assistant Director, Pathein District) U Tin Myint Aung (Assistant Engineer, Hintada Township) U Win Maw (Assistant Engineer, Yeakyi Township) U Myo Myint Aung (Assistant Engineer, Pathein Township) U Kyaw Zayar Tint (Assistant Engineer, Nyaung Done Township)

From DWIR: U Kyaw Naing Oo (Assistant Director, Ayeyawaddy Region) U Hla Thein (Assistant Engineer, Hintada Township) U Zaw Htoo (Assistant Engineer, Pathein Township)

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Participants field trip Kalay and Monywa

From DRR: Mr. Hermjan Barneveld Expert river systems Mr. Joost Beckers Expert flood forecasting Mr. Rimmer koopmans Expert flood protection Mr. Kyaw Lin Htet Local Water Expert

National level from Irrigation Department: Dr. Zaw Lwin Tun (Director, Design Branch)

For Kalay Township:

From Irrigation Department:

U Soe Naing (Director, Mechanical Division) U San Lwin (Deputy Director, Construction Circle 4) U Maw Maw Naing (Assistant Director, Construction Circle 4, based in Yarzagyo Dam) U Banyar Soe (Staff Officer Construction Circle 4, based in Yarzagyo Dam)

From DWIR: U Htun Naing Win (Deputy Director, Based in Monywar, Sagaing Region) U Sein Lwin (Deputy Director, Based in Yangon Head Office)

For Monywa Township:

From Irrigation Department: U Hla Shwe (Deputy Director, Sagaing Region) U Myo Naing (Assistant Director, Monywar District) U Tay Zar Htun (Staff Officer Director Office, Sagaing Region) U Win Htein (Staff Officer Monywar Township Irrigation Department Office) U Naing Latt (Staff Officer Chaung Oo Township Irrigation Department Office)

From DWIR: U Htun Naing Win (Deputy Director, Based in Monywar, Sagaing Region) U Sein Lwin (Deputy Director, Based in Yangon Head Office)

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Participants of the wrap-up session held on 5 September 2015, Yangon

Khin Aung Thein Wash Officer Unicef Kyaw Lin Htet DRR Team Member Royal Haskoning DHV Aung Myint Oo Myanmar Water Embassy of the Kingdom of The Officer Netherlands U Tin Moe Kyaw Staff Officer Irrigation Department Daw Kyawt Kyawt Assistant Director Irrigation Department,Design Branch U Cho Lay Assistant Director Irrigation Department Dr. Aung Than Oo Assistant Director Irregation Dept. Hydrology Branch Daw Hla Oo Nwe Deputy Director Irrigation Dept. Design Branch Daw Wai Wai Lwin Staff Officer Irrigation Dept. Design Branch U Zaw Myo That Staff Officer Irrigation Dept. Design Branch Ana Nunez Sanchez Environmental World Bank Specialist Tanya Huizer Liaison Officer Embassy of the Kingdom of The Water Netherlands Hermjan Barneveld DRR Team Member HKV Consultants / DRR Team River and Risk engineer Rimmer Koopmans DRR Team Member ARCADIS / DRR Team Geotechnical Expert Eisse Wijma River Dynamics Royal Haskoning DHV / DRR Team Expert Theo Reuzenaar Dike expert Waterboard Hollands Noorderkwartier / DRR Team Joost Beckers Forecasting Deltares / DRR Team Helena Moreno Officer UN OCHA Lat Lat Aye Team Leader UNDP Bishnu Pokhrel Wash Specialist Unicef U San Kung Staff Officer Relief and Resettlement Dept. Daw Yi Yi Myint A.D. Irr. Dept. Irrigation Department U Tin Tun Deputy Director Irrigation Department,Design Branch U Maung Maung Deputy Director Irrigation Department U Kaung Myat Thein Deputy Director Construction Irrigation Department Daw Myint Myint Than A.D. (Soil) Investigation Branch U Myint Soe A.D. Survey Investigation Branch Daw May Aye Win S.O Irrigation Department U Soe Tint A.D. Irrigation Department, Design Branch U Kan Chun A.D. Yangon Irrigation Department Daw Ei Khaing San Deputy Officer RCC U Naing Lin Aung Staff Officer ECD, MOECAF U Kyaw Ko Ko Staff Officer Irrigation Department U Kyaw Naing Oo A.D. D.W.I.R. Daw Marlar Soe A.D. DMH U Aye Than Htike Staff Officer Irrigation Department

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U Tun Naing Lwin E.S. Irrigation Department Dr. Zaw Lwin Tun Director Irrigation Department, Design Branch U Than Htay Director Irrigation Department Carola Baller Head Embassy of the Kingdom of The Netherlands Rob Steijn Head of DRR Team ARCADIS / DRR Team U Sein Lwin Deputy Director DWIR, MOT U Thaung Lwin Director DWIR, MOT U Kyaw Zin Than Deputy Director DWIR, MOT Daw Khon Ra Director Irrigation Department Daw Myintzu Saw Deputy Director Irrigation Department Daw Nu Nu Tin Deputy Director Irrigation Department

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ANNEX B– BRIEF MINUTES OF MEETINGS

Besides a kick-off meeting on 31 September and an informal feedback workshop on 4 September at Pathein (Delta subteam only), the mission was concluded by means of a formal ‘wrap-up’meeting held in the morning of 5 September. Below are a description of the highlights from the presentation followed by a summary of the responses from participants.

Presentation highlights:

Ayeyarwady Delta:

No immediate action required

Dikes are generally well managed: • Visited districts are well organised and have clear and adequate protocols • Adequate data collection and availability • Physical principles of dike failure mechanisms and river dynamics are understood and well managed with the available means

Improvements and modernization possible on: • Inspection cycles • Predictive capacity • Quantifying safety levels based on accepted flood risks • Stakeholder involvement to smoothen implementation of measures

Kalay and Monywa:

• Situation at Monywa harbour is threatening. Immediate action: prepare today for the worse (emergency repair supplies, close following of the situation and inform local authorities) • River dynamics is enormous. Floating debris caused, and may cause, a threat to the dam stability during high floods. • Outflow to Chindwin River: no backwater from Chindwin to Kalay • Spatial planning is an issue (building in flood prone areas); however, frequencies of extreme water levels are unknown

Improvements and modernization possible on:  Flood forecasting and warning  Management of embankments (at least to “delta-level”)  Quantifying safety levels based on accepted flood risks (regulating spatial development)

Deliverables • A ‘ prikstok’ (dike inspection equipment) and ground or soil drills have been given to the relevant departments to work on dike inspections and soil checks • On the job / in the field training on how to use the prikstok and the ground drills

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• A powerpoint presentation of the DRR wrap-up session with observations, outcomes and suggestions is attached to this e-mail. • A final report of the mission will follow after 12 September, hopefully as soon as possible, before the end of September.

Suggestions ‘Dikes’ (capacity building)

Inspection: • Review of manual and suggestions for improvement (organisational process, plan, organisation and capacity building, data storage) • Training in the use of ‘prikstok’, soil drill and gouge (two sets have been left with the district teams). • Make the Dutch Inspection “app” applicable for Myanmar, training and integration in inspection and maintenance process

Suggestions ‘Rivers’ (better understanding of their behaviour)

Improve quantitative understanding of river dynamics: • Capacity building aimed to analyse historical data on migration (based on existing air or geodata) and analyse the river dynamics • Capacity building on hydrodynamic modelling (sediment transport, morphodynamic) • Technology transfer by jointly developing a guidance (manual) for river improvement projects (do’s and dont’s) (and also for dikes?). o Including data and modelling o Including construction methods o Including data collection during and after the shortcut o Including stakeholder involvement

Suggestions Data and modelling (capacity building):

• Flood forecasting • Improve existing monitoring system o Review of monitoring system (locations, procedures, type of data collection, storage and validation; usage of data for statistical analysis) o Based on new results: validate existing empirical forecast methods o Based on new analysis results: optimise reservoir management to lower maximum flash floods

Suggestions risk approach (capacity building)

• To prioritize investments on embankment improvements • Capacity building on the preparation of flood hazard mapping (1/100; 1/50; 1/200 etc. Year events) • Capacity building on the application of the full risk approach for one specific (enclosed) location (Nyaungdon): o Damage assessment

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o Risk analysis o Determine (optimal) protection level

Expectations

Regarding expectations, it is important to be aware that the suggestions of the DRR Team and the support request by ID and DWIR will be discussed in The Netherlands before further next steps are formulated. We hope that you understand that the given suggestions and requests will be considered, however we cannot guarantee that we can meet all of them.

Besides suggestions for future actions by The Netherlands, the DRR team Mission also indicated some short-term concrete actions that could be executed by the Myanmar counterparts already, some thoughts e.g.

 Development/production of the ‘prikstok’: typical Dutch equipment which is used for dike inspections. Regional and district government officials have been trained by a water board dike expert on how to use the ‘prikstok’. The DRR Team gave the ‘prikstok’as a gift. It would be a possibility for Myanmar to duplicate a kind of instrument to use it at different locations in the country.  Training of trainers: the officials that have been trained during the DRR team mission could train other trainers on how to use the ‘prikstok’ for dike inspections and how to use the ground or soil drill for soil checks.  Request for licenses on open software  Follow-up meeting with different relevant ministries on coordination mechanisms

Immediate responses after the presentation:

Notes of questions and discussions on Sept 5, 2015 DRR Team Wrap up Session

Dr. Zaw Lwin Tun – Irrigation Department:

Request for the coming period;

 do’s and don’ts for the river dynamics are also relevant for the dikes. An Embankment Act exist (very old), the acts are upgraded. We need some modification and updates of the current situation. Do’s and don’ts for local people and awareness raising.  Risk Approach; only 4 or 5 persons have studied in Japan and are assigned as official in delta region. They have some technical background regarding the risk and damage. Demonstrative project of Nauyng Done as knowledge transfer to the other parts of the country.  Also regarding emergency measures and dike improvements, learning by doing can take place.  Flood forecasting and predication is very important (example Deltares). Technical transfer on flood forecasting.

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Delta area frequent flooding; long term experience in Myanmar.

In upper Myanmar, Kalay area, river flooding. no flood protection dikes as well. Investigate of the possibility on how to protect that area, by construction of flood protection area. Is it feasible or not? DG requested. A 7 meter high level it will be difficult to protect the area. Such kind of look at risks, probability and so on to make a decision. Which areas to protect? How to make the flood risk map? Based on previous recorded data available. Flood inundation maps, how can we choose the mitigation or prevention measure to make it safe for the local people. Cost-effective.

U Kyaw Zin Than, DWIR:

 River training works  Flood reduction in rivers  Growns  Assistance on modelling; capacity building  Risk approach in Nyaungdon, combine with research and development department.  Lack of technology is a difficulty.  Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH); flood forecasting and issuing flood warnings – involve DMH in modelling work.

Carola Baller, Netherlands Diplomatic Mission:

 Prioritizing the requests from Myanmar, together with other donors coordinate the efforts.

UNDP:

 Delta, communities are fully aware and sensitive to warning and flood.  Monywa, Kalay, systematic and scientific research is lacking. Regarding early warning, governance, community mobilization and early warning are UNDP activities. Local people and field level; the dike safety assessment on local level is very interesting. Acknowledge improvement for disaster preparedness. Developing a programme on disaster reduction.  New initiatives should be linked together and be a holistic approach, also look at the WB and ADP ongoing and upcoming projects.

Ana Nunez Sachez, World Bank:

 Government of Myanmar has requested; flood rapid assessment and recovery planning. World Bank mission coming 3 weeks. Impacts of the flood in different sectors of the economy.  The World Bank is currently assisting Myanmar´s Government with three main efforts: - Post Flood Rapid Assessment and Recovery Planning: The Post Disaster Needs Assessment will focus on recovery in all sectors of the economy by gathering secondary data, including assessment efforts led by other donor partner institutions. The PFRARP will work closely with the Recovery Coordination Committee.

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- SEA Disaster Risk Management Project: This project is on the identification stage. A World Bank Mission will visit Myanmar from Sept 7th-10th to work closely with the Government to discern Project objectives, component, implementation agency, etc. - Emergency Component build on projects currently in implementation: A number of World Bank financed project currently under implementation, including AIRBM, have an "emergency component" (initially without any allocated funding) that allows for the rapid reallocation of funds from other project components to provide emergency recovery and reconstruction support in the event of a natural disaster, emergency and/or catastrophic event. The World Bank and the Government of Myanmar are currently in the process of deciding the projects and the amount they will reallocate to flood response. Under Ayeyarwady projects, DWIR and DMH are part of this one and it could be relevant. A river basin management; will include flood control. Component 2, enhancement of hydrological systems, enhancing the capacity to collect and order data, including weather predictions etc. And Component 3; navigation, dynamic river and no regret infrastructure.

UNOCHA:

More dealing with the affected people; humanitarian assistance. One of the challenge is the data management. On emergency operations; how can we be supporting on all data, different ministries, analyzing the data etc. Recovery coordination centre; ministry of construction. This centre will also be of social welfare and resettlement. Capacity on information management capacity; medium term. How can we put all the data and information in the system and make an analysis.

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