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U.S.-China Relations in Strategic Domains the national bureau of asian research nbr special report #57 | april 2016 u.s.-china relations in strategic domains Edited by Travis Tanner and Wang Dong cover 2 NBR Board of Directors Charles W. Brady George Davidson Tom Robertson (Chairman) Vice Chairman, M&A, Asia-Pacific Vice President and Chairman Emeritus HSBC Holdings plc Deputy General Counsel Invesco LLC Microsoft Corporation Norman D. Dicks John V. Rindlaub Senior Policy Advisor Gordon Smith (Vice Chairman and Treasurer) Van Ness Feldman LLP Chief Operating Officer President, Asia Pacific Exact Staff, Inc. Wells Fargo Richard J. Ellings President Scott Stoll George F. Russell Jr. NBR Partner (Chairman Emeritus) Ernst & Young LLP Chairman Emeritus R. Michael Gadbaw Russell Investments Distinguished Visiting Fellow David K.Y. Tang Institute of International Economic Law, Managing Partner, Asia Karan Bhatia Georgetown University Law Center K&L Gates LLP Vice President & Senior Counsel International Law & Policy Ryo Kubota Tadataka Yamada General Electric Chairman, President, and CEO Venture Partner Acucela Inc. Frazier Healthcare Dennis Blair Chairman Melody Meyer President Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA Honorary Directors U.S. Navy (Ret.) Chevron Asia Pacific Exploration and Production Company Maria Livanos Cattaui Chevron Corporation Lawrence W. Clarkson Secretary General (Ret.) Senior Vice President International Chamber of Commerce Pamela S. Passman The Boeing Company (Ret.) President and CEO William M. Colton Center for Responsible Enterprise Thomas E. Fisher Vice President and Trade (CREATe) Senior Vice President Corporate Strategic Planning Unocal Corporation (Ret.) Exxon Mobil Corporation C. Michael Petters President and Chief Executive Officer Joachim Kempin Timothy L. Conlon Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. Senior Vice President President and COO Microsoft Corporation (Ret.) Viasystems Group, Inc. (Ret.) Kenneth B. Pyle Professor (emeritus); Founding President Clark S. Kinlin University of Washington; NBR President and Chief Executive Officer Corning Cable Systems Corning Incorporated NBR Counselors Norman D. Dicks Slade Gorton Joseph Lieberman U.S. House of Representatives (Ret.) U.S. Senate (Ret.) U.S. Senate (Ret.) Thomas B. Fargo U.S. Navy (Ret.) NBR Board of Advisors Michael Armacost Carla A. Hills Sam Nunn Stanford University Hills & Company Nuclear Threat Initiative Nicholas Eberstadt Robert D. Hormats Joseph S. Nye Jr. American Enterprise Institute Kissinger Associates, Inc. Harvard University Karl Eikenberry David Lampton Stanley Palmer Stanford University Johns Hopkins University Marvin & Palmer Associates, Inc. Donald Emmerson Nicholas Lardy Dwight Perkins Stanford University Peterson Institute for International Harvard University Economics Aaron Friedberg Thomas Pickering Princeton University Richard Lawless The Boeing Company (Ret.) New Magellan Ventures Robert Gilpin Clarine Nardi Riddle Princeton University Chae-Jin Lee Kasowitz, Benson, Torres Claremont McKenna College & Friedman LLP Lee Hamilton Indiana University Kenneth Lieberthal Stanley Roth Brookings Institution The Boeing Company Stephen Hanson College of William and Mary William J. Lynn, III Sheldon Simon DRS Technologies, Inc. Arizona State University Harry Harding University of Virginia Rajan Menon Ashley Tellis City College of New York Carnegie Endowment for Donald Hellmann International Peace University of Washington Mary Minnick Lion Capital John White Robert J. Herbold Harvard University The Herbold Group, LLC nbr special report #57 | april 2016 u.s.-china relations in strategic domains Edited by Travis Tanner and Wang Dong the national bureau of asian research The NBR Special Report provides access to current research on special topics conducted by the world’s leading experts in Asian affairs. The views expressed in these reports are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of other NBR research associates or institutions that support NBR. The National Bureau of Asian Research is a nonprofit, nonpartisan research institution dedicated to informing and strengthening policy. NBR conducts advanced independent research on strategic, political, economic, globalization, health, and energy issues affecting U.S. relations with Asia. Drawing upon an extensive network of the world’s leading specialists and leveraging the latest technology, NBR bridges the academic, business, and policy arenas. The institution disseminates its research through briefings, publications, conferences, Congressional testimony, and email forums, and by collaborating with leading institutions worldwide. NBR also provides exceptional internship opportunities to graduate and undergraduate students for the purpose of attracting and training the next generation of Asia specialists. NBR was started in 1989 with a major grant from the Henry M. Jackson Foundation. Funding for NBR’s research and publications comes from foundations, corporations, individuals, the U.S. government, and from NBR itself. NBR does not conduct proprietary or classified research. The organization undertakes contract work for government and private-sector organizations only when NBR can maintain the right to publish findings from such work. To download issues of the NBR Special Report, please visit the NBR website http://www.nbr.org. This report may be reproduced for personal use. Otherwise, the NBR Special Report may not be reproduced in full without the written permission of NBR. When information from NBR publications is cited or quoted, please cite the author and The National Bureau of Asian Research. This is the fity-seventh NBR Special Report. NBR is a tax-exempt, nonprofit corporation under I.R.C. Sec. 501(c)(3), qualified to receive tax-exempt contributions. © 2016 by The National Bureau of Asian Research. Front cover image: USA and China Flag © Tangducminh/Dreamstimes.com. For further information about NBR, contact: The National Bureau of Asian Research 1414 NE 42nd Street, Suite 300 Seattle, Washington 98105 206-632-7370 Phone 206-632-7487 Fax [email protected] E-mail http://www.nbr.org nbr special report #57 | april 2016 u.s.-china relations in strategic domains TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction v Travis Tanner and Wang Dong Project Team xi Strategic Domains U.S.-China Relations in the Maritime Security Domain 1 Christopher Yung and Wang Dong Seeking Strategic Stability for U.S.-China Relations in the Nuclear Domain 21 Elbridge A. Colby and Wu Riqiang Reducing and Managing U.S.-China Conflict in Cyberspace 43 Adam Segal and Tang Lan U.S.-China Strategic Relations in Space 63 Brian Weeden and Xiao He Special Studies Stepping Up Investments in U.S.-China Relations: 83 Making People-to-People Exchange a Strategic Priority Travis Tanner and Zhao Minghao Sino-U.S. Military-to-Military Relations 103 Roy D. Kamphausen with Jessica Drun Conclusion 119 Tiffany Ma INTRODUCTION he U.S.-China relationship is becoming increasingly complex and interdependent, and leaders in Beijing and Washington are struggling to establish a common foundation on which to expand and deepen bilateral relations. While both sides seem to agree on the general need to cooperate and manage competition, the details of how to move the relationshipT forward remain unclear, particularly in areas where progress has already been difficult to achieve. The international stakes of how the two nations work together and collaborate are monumental. Given that the global challenges facing the world today cannot be resolved without both the United States and China, calculations in the cyber, maritime, nuclear, and space domains are increasingly consequential and carry implications for other nations. Military-to-military (mil-mil) and people-to-people (P2P) interactions also have the potential to influence outcomes across a range of these and other key policy areas. The National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) and Peking University’s Institute for China-U.S. People-to-People Exchange partnered on a project to produce an examination of the challenges to establishing greater trust and cooperation in U.S.-China relations in strategic domains and bilateral exchanges. The project—“U.S.-China Relations in Strategic Domains”—assembled a study team of leading experts from China and the United States to develop a conceptual foundation for U.S.-China relations. Employing an innovative approach to represent both U.S. and Chinese perspectives, the members of the study team jointly examined opportunities for collaboration by identifying areas of divergence and convergence across four strategic domains and two modes of bilateral exchange. The project also enlisted two groups of senior advisors—composed of top scholars and current and former senior officials—who provided guidance and direction to the project and feedback to members of the study team. The study team interacted and held discussions through seminars in Beijing and Honolulu, as well as through tele- and video conferences. The resulting essays published in this NBR Special Report assess the U.S.-China relationship in the maritime, nuclear, cyberspace, and space domains as well as through the lens of P2P and mil-mil exchanges. The project team sought to go beyond the rhetoric of cooperation to examine side by side U.S. and Chinese interests in each strategic domain and bilateral mode of exchange. Each essay identifies areas of convergence and recommends cooperative initiatives and mechanisms to manage tensions. The central challenge in improving strategic stability between the United States and China is finding ways to
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