Cabinet Rating 2018 Dear Readers

A+ A B+ A– B C+ B– C C– Cabinet rating 2018 Dear Readers,

For the sixth time, Polityka Insight has prepared a report that assesses the achievements of cabinet ministers over the last year. We have rated the members of the cabinet in three categories: policy and governance, political clout and public perception. We have considered both the quality of the legislation they implemented, as well as their reaction to crises and effectiveness of management.

This year was not one for grand reforms. The cabinet of Mateusz Morawiecki mainly continued previously launched projects, such as 500+, elimination of middle schools, changes in the judicial system and more strict tax collection. It also focused on the implementation of projects from the Strategy for Responsible Development - with varying results. In addition, the prime minister initiated new programmes, such as the 300+ contribution for pupils.

The government had to drop some of its ideas (see: amendment to the law on the Supreme Court), while it was not possible to implement others. This was the case with, for example, the changes to the Labour Code, elimination of the limit of social security contributions and the promised pensions for mothers of four children. There were also some problems with the implementation of one of the biggest projects, Housing+.

In the past year, the government had to face various crises, both internal ones, as well as in relations with foreign actors. In January 2018, it entered into a dispute with Israel and the US over the amendment to the law on the Institute of National Remembrance, which was ultimately resolved by the prime minister. Furthermore, ministers had to solve crises with junior doctors as well as the European Union over the Białowieża Forest and changes in the judicial system. They also had to deal with protests by the police, farmers and nurses ahead of the elections.

The overall government rating (B-) did not change from a year ago. The ministers who have held their positions the longest generally performed worse than in 2017, while the rating was lifted by those who joined the cabinet after the January reshuffle.

Joanna Sawicka Project Coordinator Polityka Insight Content

How the ratings changed 4 Cabinet rating 2018 7

Mateusz Morawiecki Prime Minister 10

Joachim Brudziński Minister of the Interior and Administration 13

Teresa Czerwińska Minister of Finance 16

Jadwiga Emilewicz Minister of Entrepreneurship and Technology 19 Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Science Jarosław Gowin and Higher Education 22 Mariusz Błaszczak Minister of National Defence 25

Jerzy Kwieciński Minister of Investment and Economic Development 28

Elżbieta Rafalska Minister of Family, Labour and Social Policy 31

Łukasz Szumowski Minister of Health 34

Marek Zagórski Minister of Digital Affairs 37

Jan Ardanowski Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development 40

Witold Bańka Minister of Sport and Tourism 43 Minister – Member of the Council of Ministers, Mariusz Kamiński Special Services Coordinator 46 Henryk Kowalczyk Minister of Environment 49

Zbigniew Ziobro Minister of Justice 52

Andrzej Adamczyk Minister of Infrastructure 55 Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Culture Piotr Gliński and National Heritage 58 Marek Gróbarczyk Minister of Maritime Economy and Inland Navigation 61

Beata Szydło Deputy Prime Minister 64

Krzysztof Tchórzewski Minister of Energy 67

Jacek Czaputowicz Minister of Foreign Affairs 70

Anna Zalewska Minister of National Education 73 How the ratings changed government 2018 2017

B– GENERAL RATING B–

B- policy and governance B-

B- political clout B-

B- public perception B-

ministers

Mateusz Morawiecki Beata Szydło Prime Minister B+ B

Joachim Brudziński Mariusz Błaszczak Minister of the Interior B+ and Administration C+

There was a joint ministry Teresa Czerwińska with Ministry of Investment Minister of Finance and Economic Development. B+

Jadwiga Emilewicz There was not such ministry. Minister of Entrepreneurship B+ and Technology

Jarosław Gowin Jarosław Gowin Deputy Prime Minister, Minister B+ of Science and Higher Education B+ 4 2018 2017

Mariusz Błaszczak Antoni Macierewicz Minister of National Defence B B-

Jerzy Kwieciński Mateusz Morawiecki Minister of Investment B and Economic Development A

Elżbieta Rafalska Elżbieta Rafalska Minister of Family, Labour B and Social Policy A-

Łukasz Szumowski Konstanty Radziwiłł Minister of Health B C+

Marek Zagórski Anna Streżyńska Minister of Digital Affairs B B

Jan Ardanowski Krzysztof Jurgiel Minister of Agriculture and Rural B- Development C

Witold Bańka Witold Bańka Minister of Sport and Tourism B- C

Mariusz Kamiński Mariusz Kamiński Minister – Member of the Council B- of Ministers, Special Services C+ Coordinator

Henryk Kowalczyk Jan Szyszko Minister of Environment B- C 5 2018 2017

Zbigniew Ziobro Zbigniew Ziobro Minister of Justice B- B

Andrzej Adamczyk Andrzej Adamczyk C+ Minister of Infrastructure C+

Piotr Gliński Piotr Gliński Deputy Prime Minister, Minister C+ of Culture and National Heritage B-

Marek Gróbarczyk Marek Gróbarczyk Minister of Maritime Economy C+ and Inland Navigation B-

Beata Szydło Evaluated as Prime Minister. Deputy Prime Minister C+

Krzysztof Tchórzewski Krzysztof Tchórzewski Minister of Energy C+ B-

Jacek Czaputowicz Witold Waszczykowski Minister of Foreign Affairs C C

Anna Zalewska Anna Zalewska Minister of National Education C C+

6 CABINET RATING 2018

Younger ministers strengthening the government Thanks to the reshuffle, the government has maintained relatively high ratings. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Minister of Finance Teresa Czerwińska stand out.

B- policy and governance B– GENERAL RATING B- political clout B- public perception

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 7 Rating unchanged since last year. The government’s overall rating has remained at the level of autumn 2017, i.e. B-. The components are also unchanged - the quality of governance, political clout and public perception are still B-. However, many changes took place in the assessments of individual ministers. The majority of ministers who joined the cabinet during the last year did well in the ratings - almost all of them received assessments better than did their predecessor in 2017. MinInt Joachim Brudziński improved on last year’s overall rating for Mariusz Błaszczak by as many as 3 points (from C + to B +) mainly thanks to efficient modernisation of uniformed services and a strong political position. Ministers appointed in 2015 mostly did worse than a year ago, for example, the high rating of Elżbieta Rafalska dropped from A- to B because the effectiveness of Min- Fam in implementing social programmes was lower.

Front runners are Morawiecki and Czerwińska. None of the ministers received the highest rating, straight A, although Mateusz Morawiecki did receive it in our previous edition. At the top of the 2018 rating stands the PM and MinFin Teresa Czerwińska (both of them on B+), and Brudziński comes in just behind them. Morawiecki is helped by the good economic situation, handles foreign policy and crisis management better than Beata Szydło. Czerwińska is effective in securing budget stability and continues to tighten the tax system. Brudziński avoids pitfalls and can deal with crises (just before the election, he staved off the police officers’ protests) and has a very strong position in the cabinet.

Zalewska and Czaputowicz with lowest ratings. The reform of education introduced by Anna Zalewską brought chaos to schools and anxiety among teachers and parents of students. Zalewska recorded no successes in other fields and, in addition, her position in the government fell after the change of PM. Jacek Czaputowicz’s conduct of foreign policy is dependent on the political requirements of PiS and he plays no significant role in the most important crises - for example, the conflict with Israel and the US in connection with the amendment to the IPN Law. The MinFor does not control the personnel policy in the ministry. His rating was slightly higher than his predecessor’s, given a lower propensity for media mishaps.

Czerwińska brings star quality to governance. MinFin is the only one with A- rating in the quality of governance category. Jadwiga Emilewicz, Jerzy Kwieciński and Łukasz Szu- mowski (all B+) performed very well. Emilewicz has introduced simplifications for small businesses, and the business circles praise her for efficiency and openness in contacts. Kwieciński receives credit for efficient coordination of spending EU funds, and Szu- mowski for his fire-fighting talents and progress in digitising health care. Beata Szydło is definitely the worst member of the government as regards the quality of governance. The former PM cannot boast of any successes in the sphere of social affairs, for which she is theoretically responsible.

Brudziński, the strongest member of the government. Several ministers with a relatively strong political position, such as Antoni Macierewicz and Krzysztof Jurgiel, left following the recent cabinet reshuffle. People from outside the party joined - Szumowski, Czerwiń- ska and Czaputowicz. After the dismissal of Szydło, the political position of Zalewska and Rafalska, both linked to her, declined sharply. At the same time, Brudziński joined the cabinet, bringing with him a really good relationship with Jarosław Kaczyński and a big influence on the party. This explains the highest political position among all members of the government (A), in our opinion stronger even than the PM (A-).

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 8 Fewer slips, more unknown faces. A few ministers who had weakened the cabinet’s outside image left the government - including MinFor Witold Waszczykowski, MinEnv Jan Szyszko and MinDef Antoni Macierewicz. The new members of CouMin - Emilewicz, Czerwińska or Czaputowicz – seldom have media mishaps, but at the same time, they are less recognisable. They are also less active in social media, so they did not improve the public perception of the government. In this category, Jarosław Gowin (the only one with a B+ rating) fares best: he has high recognisability, considerable social trust and often appears in the media. The lowest grade (C) was given to Mariusz Kamiński, Andrzej Adamczyk and Czaputowicz (C-).

OUTLOOK

Mateusz Morawiecki’s government has kept up its standing from last year’s Polityka Insi- ght’s ratings mainly thanks to the January reshuffle, in which efficient ministers - Jadwiga Emilewicz and Łukasz Szumowski - joined the cabinet. Their good results were neutralised by lower ratings of cabinet members dating back to 2015. Despite the KNF scandal or the eavesdropping scandal involving the PM, the government maintains high ratings also in CBOS polls (42 per cent support – just as at the end of 2017). The government is, however, likely to face one more serious reconstruction before the end of the parliamentary term, as a result of elections to EurParl and the beginning of the election campaign to the Sejm.

AUTHOR B

Joanna Sawicka Political Affairs Analyst

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 9 Mateusz Morawiecki Prime Minister

Morawiecki: a politician evolved out of a technocrat Morawiecki is stronger politically than his predecessor and is strengthened by economic progress and good social moods. He remains dependent on the PiS leader.

B+ policy and governance B+ GENERAL RATING A- political clout B public perception

B+ POLICY AND GOVERNANCE

Mateusz Morawiecki replaced Beata Szydło in December 2017, to the surprise and cha- grin of many PiS politicians who wanted either Szydło to carry on or Jarosław Kaczyński to become PM again. Morawiecki has evolved from the „technocrat PM” into a politician who was the face of the party in the local government campaign. The image of the PiS „li- beral”, who was supposed to win the favour of moderate voters, took a major knock. The PM’s associates have, nevertheless, managed to portray him as an effective politician who knows how to look after the economy and keeps social promises.

Economy a boost. Economists had expected a slowdown Q3, but economic growth remained above 5 per cent thanks to a strong rebound in investment. If nothing changes before the end of the year, it will mean the best outcome for over a decade. This strengthens the PM’s narrative, which emphasises that good economic results are the result of an effective economic policy - economists reiterate that they result, inter alia, from the expansion of companies or the excel- lent situation on the labour market, which supports consumption. Morawiecki’s authority is also strengthened by the fact that his actions as deputy PM in the area of sealing the tax system have enabled PiS to implement social promises without adverse consequences for the budget.

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 10 Record levels of social contentment. The autumn surveys of CBOS have shown that Poles asses their standards of living as well as the situation in the workplace and the economic situation as the best in history. PiS social programmes, including 500+, had a large share in that. In April 2018, in order to maintain voters’ support after the scandal with annual bonuses for ministers, Morawiecki announced further social programmes, including 300+ (starter kits for school students), allowances for non-working mothers of at least four children and facilities for the disabled. Announcement and implementation of such promises improved PiS’s ratings and facilitated victory in local elections.

SOR implemented, but unevenly. The Strategy for Responsible Development (SOR) adopted in February 2017 is one of the pillars of the economic policy of the Morawiecki government. Many of its goals will, however, be difficult to achieve. The share of investment in GDP is falling, not rising (this may, however, change with the introduction of employee capital plans in mid-2019), and spending on research and development is about 1 per cent of GDP (according to SOR it is to be 1.7 per cent in 2020). The effective implementation of the main elements of SOR is carried out primarily by ministries and institutions close to the PM, such as MinDev, MinTech, MinFin and the Polish Development Fund. Mora- wiecki also had to take more responsibility for projects whose implementation caused the greatest problems, such as the Mieszkanie+ programme.

Changed form rather than content in dealings with EU. Morawiecki, along with the new MinFor Jacek Czaputowicz, became personally engaged in talks with EurCom. He arran- ged for officials to compose the so-called “White Paper”, in English, intended to explain changes in the judiciary for the benefit of foreigners. The effects of these activities were, however, far from expected - Brussels felt cheated when changes in language were not followed up by changes in policy (these were only achieved through CJEU). Morawiecki has no ambition to engage in European politics - he supports the EU’s actions mainly in economic matters.

Betting on the US in security policy. Under Morawiecki’s government, Poland has offered the United States facilities for the permanent stationing of a US land forces division in Poland and is currently continuing negotiations on strengthening the military presence. By the end of the parliamentary term, Poland will have spent about USD 10 billion on armaments from the US. Morawiecki failed, however, to deal with Washington in connection with the IPN law (vide: statement on the Jewish perpetrators of the Holocaust), but in the following months, he managed to rebuild relations with Israel which are important to America, enabling him to return to cooperation with the US. In October he paid a visit to the States, but he did not meet with Donald Trump.

Has stronger leadership of government than did Szydło. He controls the economic ministries (MinFin and MinDev are managed by ministers close to him, Teresa Czerwińska and Jerzy Kwieciński), and also has good relations with MinSci Jaroslaw Gowin, MinTech Jadwiga Emilewicz and MinHea Łukasz Szumowski. Relations between the head of government and MinInt Joachim Brudzinski are fine but those with MinDef Mariusz Błasz- czak have deteriorated (there was even talk of the latter’s resignation over the summer). The PM is extending his influence in companies step by step, both institutionally - there is a law increasing the competences of the head of government in the parliament- and personally - most recent nominations in Alior Bank. Morawiecki consistently weakens his opponents in the government - MinJus Zbigniew Ziobro, MinInf Andrzej Adamczyk and MinEner Krzysztof Tchórzewski. A possible decision about their dismissal, however, is not the responsibility of the PM himself, but of the PiS leader.

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 11 A- POLITICAL CLOUT

Morawiecki’s premiership, like that of Beata Szydło, depends on Kaczyński’s wishes. There is no „Morawiecki faction” in PiS that would defend him in the event of a falling out with the party head. Morawiecki’s political position is, however, slightly stronger than Szydło’s, thanks to better relations with Kaczyński. The latter views the current PM as an intellectual partner, and perhaps even a potential successor. In recent months, Mora- wiecki has also strengthened in the party, thanks to numerous meetings with activists in the local government campaign. The PM is also an active participant in the meetings of the praesidium of the PiS political committee, where a group of about 10 decides on the formation of strategy.

B PUBLIC PERCEPTION

Morawiecki ranks second (after Andrzej Duda) in a survey of trust in politicians - he is trusted by 58 per cent of Poles. This result is 10 percentage points worse than in the first month after taking power, but better than in the days when he was deputy PM minister. Morawiecki’s public perception was negatively influenced by two lost trials before the electoral court over local elections (with PO and the mayor of Kraków). He was also damaged by the publication of a transcript of a conversation from the time when he was close to PO (vide: the wiretapping scandal).

OUTLOOK

Provided PiS’s ratings for do not start to fall sharply and if the party does not fail in the EurParl elections, then Morawiecki will probably retain the position of the head of the cabinet until the end of the parliamentary term. He is in a better situation than Szydło - there is no one who can easily replace him without the risk of PiS’s popularity falling and turmoil within the party. Kaczyński’s own candidacy is unlikely in a year of a key electoral campaign. Morawiecki’s future will depend on PiS’s results and the balance of power in the next parliament.

AUTHOR

Wojciech Szacki Senior Analyst for Political AffairsB

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 12 Joachim Brudziński Minister of the Interior and Administration

Brudziński: PiS leader’s closest associate Joachim Brudzinski is carrying out the modernisation programme of the uniformed services, but his image was tarnished by a police officers’ protest lasting several months.

B policy and governance B+ GENERAL RATING A political clout B public perception

B POLICY AND GOVERNANCE

Joachim Brudziński took over MinInt from Mariusz Błaszczak in January 2018. He is continuing his programme of modernisation of the uniformed services and the creation of the State Protection Service (SOP) in place of the Government Protection Bureau (BOR), begun by his predecessor. His successes include creating a new counter-terrorism service - the amendment to the Police Act was adopted by the Sejm on November 9. The minister has not yet succeeded, however, in introducing e-IDs or solving problems with the implementation of EU directives on the protection of personal data. This does not affect his position in the government, however, which is strong due to his very good relationship with Jarosław Kaczyński.

Continuing modernisation of uniformed services. The ministry launched a programme to modernise the police, border guards, fire brigades and SOP in January 2017. Its implementation is expected to cost PLN 9.2 billion, of which over PLN 4.2 billion will be taken up by wage increases for officers and civilian services employees. Using the funds from this programme, Brudziński has opened 81 police stations in small towns. He is also modernising a worn-out fleet of uniformed-services vehicles and helicopters and buying weapons and IT and communication systems. The implementation of the programme

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 13 is supervised by Deputy MinInt Jarosław Zieliński. The police officers’ trade unions are already warning, however, that due to massive spending it will be necessary to increase the funds for the programme’s implementation in order to get the right results in the coming years.

Problems with a new government protection service. Brudziński inherited the transformation of BOR into SOP from Błaszczak. The first operations of the new service were overshadowed by collisions involving government motorcades protected by SOP. There have already been 15 road incidents, including some involving president Andrzej Duda and Deputy PM Beata Szydło. SOP is also struggling with staffing problems. Shortly before the service was created, 148 officers left BOR (twice as many as in 2016), and another 186 since its inception. According to MinInt data from May, the SOP has 1,957 people, though there are 2,375 positions. Even pay increases under the modernisation programme have not helped recruitment. The problems of the most important service protecting the government are among the main challenges facing Brudziński.

A Pyrrhic victory over protests. The protests of police officers, which had been underway since July, meant that the state budget was losing PLN 2 million a day - officers did not issue fines, but merely admonished drivers. Brudziński only managed to sign an agreement with the protesters on November 8. The minister agreed to the majority of demands, including a gross increase of PLN 655 (instead of PLN 309) from January 2019 and PLN 500 gross from January 2020. In fact, Brudziński had no choice. The prolonged protests paralysed the work of the police - up to 30 per cent of police officers reported sick at the same time. The PM also expected the dispute to be resolved, especially in view of the approaching celebration of the centenary of Poland’s independence.

Chance of success with e-documentation. In January, Deputy MinDig Paweł Majewski moved to MinInt, and Brudziński gave him the task of introducing e-identity documents, which was originally planned for 2013. If the ministry fails to do so by the end of March 2019, Poland will have to repay PLN 150 million from EU funds. The law introducing e-IDs is at its second reading in the Sejm, so there is a chance that MinInt will make it before the deadline set by EurCom. Both Majewski and Brudziński will be able to notch it up as a success - the minister will be proud to close the project which has been going on since 2007. It would also close the process of changes in documents controlled by MinInt - in November, the ministry introduced new passport designs that have more security features.

Difficulties implementing EU regulations on time.In April 2016, the EU adopted two directives: one on the processing of personal data when prosecuting crimes and the other on using airlines’ passenger data to prevent terrorism. Both directly concern civil rights and neither was implemented on time. The first was to take effect from May 7, but the bill is only at its first reading in the Sejm. The second directive was implemented on May 29, four days after the deadline set by the EU. It seems Brudziński is on the right track to ensure that the next EurCom complaint against Poland concerns matters his ministry is responsible for.

A POLITICAL CLOUT

Joachim Brudziński is one of the ruling party’s most important politicians and Jarosław Kaczyński’s closest associate. The PiS leader publicly called him the party’s „first deputy leader” and implied that he could be his successor. The MinInt sits on the party’s seven-

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 14 -member praesidium and on its 33-member political committee. When Kaczyński was in the hospital, Brudziński presided over the committee’s deliberations. After joining the cabinet, he resigned as chair of the PiS executive committee. But his long-term collaborator Krzysztof Sobolewski took over, thanks to which Brudzinski maintained his influence there. Brudziński also has a strong position in the cabinet. He contributed to the expul- sion of Deputy MinDev Paweł Chorąży, responsible for preparing migration policy, after he said at the Jagiellonian Club conference on August 30 that Poland must open itself to immigrants.

B PUBLIC PERCEPTION

Brudziński regularly appears in all media outlets - from Radio Maryja to TVN24. He is also quite liked by opposition MPs. He gets into discussions with journalists and is active on Twitter, where he sometimes uses quite colourful phrases. He has also put up photos on social media from his summer holidays in Beskid Sądecki, which he spent with Jaro- sław Kaczyński. The head of MinInt is recognised by 56 per cent of Poles; he is the face of a policy of reducing the inflow of immigrants from the Middle East. Only 20 per cent of citizens trust him, while 19 per cent distrusts him. Trade media, on the other hand, appreciate the minister’s modernisation efforts and the increased spending on new equipment.

OUTLOOK

Joachim Brudziński will maintain a strong position in the government thanks to his very good relations with Jarosław Kaczyński and a strong position in PiS. His activities, such as pay rises for the uniformed services, reopening of police stations in small towns and increasing subsidies, including for volunteer fire brigades, will help build support for the ruling party in the upcoming elections among officers and in small towns, which will strengthen him further. If, on the other hand, he manages to introduce e-IDs on time, he will be able to present himself as a minister who managed to overcome the long-standing failure in the computerisation of the state.

AUTHOR

Wojciech Pawłuszko Senior Analyst for Legal Affairs B

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 15 Teresa Czerwińska Minister of Finance

An economist far from politics Morawiecki’s deputy is responsible for preparing the most important government economic projects. The market appreciates her for a balanced and stable fiscal policy.

A- policy and governance B+ GENERAL RATING B political clout B public perception

A- POLICY AND GOVERNANCE

Teresa Czerwińska is an economist and a long-standing researcher at the University of Gdańsk. She has been working in the Ministry of Finance since June 2017. At first, she was the deputy minister for the budget, but she soon gained the trust of Mateusz Morawiec- ki. When he became PM, he appointed her as MinFin. Czerwińska is responsible for the preparation and implementation of key government economic projects: employee capital plans, sealing VAT and CIT, and capital market development strategy. She negotiates budget plans with important ministries and dampens their enthusiasm when there is a risk of over-indebtedness.

Budget deficit lowest for years. Czerwińska as deputy MinFin created the budget for 2018, in which she planned a deficit of PLN 41.5 billion. From January to October, there has been a surplus of PLN 6.5 billion in the budget, and according to the minister, by the end of the year, the deficit will reach a maximum of 60 per cent of that planned, or about PLN 25 billion. It would be slightly smaller than in 2017 (PLN 25.4 billion) and the lowest since 2009 (PLN 23.8 billion), equal to about 1 per cent of GDP. MinFin’s optimism is shared by foreign institutions, such as Moody’s and EurCom. Czerwińska reckons on continuing good results in 2019. MinFin assumed that the deficit would amount to PLN 28.5 billion.

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 16 Sealing taxes brings results. The good budget figures are the result of not only the favourable economic situation but also the sealing of taxes, which was promoted by Czerwiń- ska’s deputy Paweł Gruza. The ministry implemented an amendment to the law in order to counteract money laundering in January, allowing the blocking of current accounts in the event of detection of suspicious operations. In July, the “split payment” mechanism came into force. A uniform inspection file has been in force since 2016, the purpose of which is to reduce the VAT gap. Czerwińska is partially building on the effects of the work of her predecessors: Paweł Szałamacha and Mateusz Morawiecki. Her department is currently working on sealing the VAT collection through changes in the fuel package and new rules for issuing and using invoices.

Opts for simplification of the tax system.Czerwińska has efficiently carried a major tax bill through consultations. Three months after its publication, the law was already signed by the president; it will come into force on January 1, 2019. It deals with introducing preferential treatment of income derived from intellectual property rights (IP Box), concessions for cooperative banks, an alternative way of taxing eurobonds, taxation of virtual currencies and facilitating transfer pricing. The minister wants to consult the market in 2019 about income tax reform and capital gains tax (the so-called Belka tax).

Helps with Morawiecki Plan. Czerwińska is responsible for implementing some of the ideas from the „Strategy for responsible development” presented two years ago. The most important project is employee capital plans, which are intended to increase Poles’ retire- ment savings and support the development of the capital market. Contrary to earlier announcements, the first employees will not start saving in PPK in January 2019, but six months year later. The delays were the result of long negotiations with employers. The MinFin also wants to publish the capital market development strategy, on which it is working with BTA Consulting, the end of the year.

Careful approach to regulation. Czerwińska tackled the GetBack scandal in a balanced way. In June, she commented that corporate bonds are not defective instruments, while in response to possible erroneous data in the reports of the debt collector her department has developed a law that strengthens the supervision of auditors. After the outbreak of the KNF scandal, she only spoke at joint conferences of the Financial Stability Commit- tee, first under the chairmanship of the head of the National Bank of Poland, and later of MinFin. On the one hand, the financial sector appreciates the government’s predictable fiscal policy but on the other complains that under Czerwińska MinFin introduces more stringent regulations than the EU requires (“gold plating”). This is evident, for example, in a regulation limiting the remuneration for TFIs or amending the Act on public offers.

Cosmetic changes in MinFin structures. Czerwińska gives her deputy ministers quite a lot of freedom of action. At parliamentary committees, she is usually replaced by deputy MinFin Piotr Nowak or department directors. She did not get along only with Paweł Gru- za, who had hoped to succeed Morawiecki, but he left the MinFin in August. Czerwińska did not change much in the ministry’s organisation: she has only created a department for analyses and supervision of inspections and transferred the organisation of the public finance sector from the department of expenditure policy to the state budget department. In July, she said goodbye to the general director, Adam Niedzielski - he was replaced by Beata Brodowska-Mączka, who had worked with the MinFin when the latter was a deputy minister.

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 17 B POLITICAL CLOUT

Czerwińska has never been a member of PiS and denied rumours that she has signed up for the party. Her political position is heavily dependent on that of PM Mateusz Mora- wiecki, who chose her as his successor at MinFin. Czerwińska cooperates closely with other ministers from the PM’s milieu, including MinDev Jerzy Kwieciński and MinTech Jadwiga Emilewicz. Her projects, such as PPK or funds investing in renting real estate (FINN), are sometimes criticised by NBP head Adam Glapiński, who is a party counterweight to Morawiecki.

B PUBLIC PERCEPTION

Czerwińska is not very well-known to the public - although she manages one of the most important ministries, CBOS has not polled on her popularity or the level of trust in her. Ever since she became MinFin, she began to appear in the media, especially business ones, more often. She prefers being interviewed by Dziennik Gazeta Prawna, Rzeczpo- spolita and the PAP agency. She appears less often than other ministers in media associated with the right wing, for example in Radio Maryja or Gazeta Polska. Keeping her distance from politics goes down well with the financial sector, which values Czerwińska for her high level of expertise.

OUTLOOK

Czerwińska owes her high position in government to Mateusz Morawiecki’s promotion to PM. If Morawiecki loses his job after the next parliamentary election, Czerwińska will probably leave along with him – PiS may prefer someone attached to the party holding this position. Her most important task in the coming year will be to prepare income tax reforms. The challenge for Czerwińska’s department is, however, work on the budget law for 2019 and 2020. PiS politicians may want to use the low budget deficit to make further social promises that would give them high support in the 2019 parliamentary elections and the presidential elections of 2020.

AUTHOR

Piotr Sobolewski Senior Analyst for Financial SectorB

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 18 Jadwiga Emilewicz Minister of Entrepreneurship and Technology

The modern face of the government Emilewicz is accessible to entrepreneurs and has effectively introduced ways to support small businesses. But not all of her ideas are liked by other ministries.

B+ policy and governance B+ GENERAL RATING B political clout B public perception

B+ POLICY AND GOVERNANCE

In January 2018, Jadwiga Emilewicz took the top position of the newly created Ministry of Entrepreneurship and Technology. It was created as a result of the split of the ministry of development led by Mateusz Morawiecki. Emilewicz coordinates the government’s activities related to companies. Her powers and responsibilities in the area of technological development are less clear. MinTech is seen in a positive light by business circles. Her modern ways are not always well received by other ministries that often have a traditional approach to the economy, which creates tensions within the cabinet and make it more difficult to implement the ideas.

Simplifications for businesses. Emilewicz is implementing one of the main elements of the government’s economic policy: supporting business, especially small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). MinTech took some of the legislative drafts, such as the business constitution (it came into force on April 30), from MinDev, along with the person responsible for it, Deputy Minister Mariusz Haładyj. He is seen by business as an apolitical expert (he was deputy MinEco in the PO-PSL government), which benefits Emilewicz and her ministry. This year, MinTech was also able to pass legislation that introduces lower contributions for the smaller companies (so-called little ZUS) starting in 2019. The

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 19 law making it easier to inherit companies is coming into force in November. The Sejm is working on the so-called SME package prepared by MinTech. It will permit things such as including the spouse’s salary in the company’s costs. Businesses view the changes positively. In practice, these simplifications do not always work because the way they are applied depends on government officials.

Important social and economic legislation. In part thanks to Emilewicz, who comes from Kraków, combatting smog is only of the priorities of Morawiecki’s government. Along with Piotr Woźny, the prime minister’s plenipotentiary for the „Clear Air” programme, Emilewicz is also responsible for the ongoing work in the Sejm on the legislation to make it possible to support poor families in updating home insulation and the replacement of old boilers. MinTech is also running a pilot programme for the new public procurement law, which in November is to enter public consultations. It also drafted legislation meant to reduce payment bottlenecks, which Morawiecki promised a year ago at Kongres 590. The new legislation has been received well by the industry. Businesses have emphasised that it is not just the ideas themselves, but also the fact that they are widely consulted.

Minister for new technologies. Emilewicz, already as deputy MinDev, had good contact with the startup industry and is the face of supporting innovation and new technologies. Her ministry oversees the Central Office of Measures, the Patent Office, The Polish -Agen cy for Enterprise Development (PARP) and several dozen research institutes. In addition, MinTech creates the government’s space policy and is introducing digital services, such as e-invoicing in public procurement (draft is with the Sejm). The ministry is also responsible for the establishment of the Platform for the Future Industry Foundation (legislation with the Sejm), which is to support companies in digital transformation. But Emilewicz’s problem is the fact that the responsibility for innovation and new technologies is shared by several ministries and institutions. These include MinSci and MinDigi. For this reason, MinTech’s activities are less visible in this area.

Clashes with other ministries. Emilewicz’s modern and market-friendly approach is causing tension with more traditional ministers, which means that some of MinTech’s ideas might not be implemented. MinTech was long at odds with MinEner on the norms for coal quality (Emilewicz and Woźny wanted to make them more strict, Tchórzewski defended the interests of the mining industry). In the end, they were able to reach a com- promise. The ministries also disagree over the way to support companies and households due to rising electricity prices. Emilewicz also differs with MinInfra Andrzej Adamczyk over the approach to regulation of the transportation services market and Uber. MinInfra wants to make it more difficult for such companies to do business in Poland, while Emile- wicz supports their growth. There is also no agreement between MinTech and MinJus on amending the commercial companies code, which introduces a simple joint stock company, making it easier to develop innovative businesses. MinJus believes it is not necessary.

Window to the world and investors. MinTech, which deal with supporting export and attracting foreign investors, is benefitting from the fact that it employs people with an international understanding. One of the deputy ministers is Tadeusz Kościński, who for many years had worked in the banking sector in places such as London. As part of his job, he often travels and establishes contacts with the executives of foreign companies. He was the one responsible for the legislation to support new investments, which would support investors with tax breaks everywhere in Poland, not just in special economic zones. Emilewicz herself has taken part in economic missions this year to countries such as the US and Israel. She has also shown that she is able to defend Polish business in crisis situations. Her quick reaction to the US ban on the import of Polish pork led to Washing- ton lifting the embargo.

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 20 B POLITICAL CLOUT Emilewicz is the deputy head of Porozumienie, a party led by Jarosław Gowin, and works closely with the deputy prime minister. She creates a more modern, business-friendly and innovative image for the PiS government, thanks to which she also enjoys Morawiec- ki’s support. Emilewicz’s effectiveness is strengthening her cabinet position, although it has been difficult for her to break through the traditional approach of other ministers. Unofficially, some representatives of other ministries accuse Emilewicz and her deputy ministers of being too close to business, including foreign companies.

B PUBLIC PERCEPTION

Emilewicz represents the government at many business conferences, also abroad. She is active on social media, is eager to appear in public and is not afraid to speak English. She is valued within business circles, especially for being open to dialogue. But she practically does not exist in the consciousness of Poles - her recognisability is very low and CBOS does not include her in the regulator poll of trust in politicians.

OUTLOOK

Jadwiga Emilewicz became MinTech as a result of the alliance between PiS and Gowin’s Porozumienie. But she is valued by Morawiecki and while he is the prime minister, her position should remain strong. Her disadvantages include the fact that she is not recognisable and the effects of her actions do not always rely only on her ministry. For example, the more strict tax collection introduced by MinFin, which increased budget revenue, but also places new requirements on companies, which messes with what MinTech is seeking to fix. As a result, in the newest Doing Business 2019 report by World Bank, which in part evaluates Emilewicz’s work, Poland fell from the 27th to 33rd place among 190 countries.

AUTHOR

Leszek Baj Senior Business Analyst B

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 21 Jarosław Gowin Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Science and Higher Education

His most important project is done Jarosław Gowin has managed to implement the law reforming higher education. Now he is more involved in current politics.

B policy and governance B+ GENERAL RATING B+ political clout B+ public perception

B POLICY AND GOVERNANCE

The coming into force of the “constitution for science” was the culmination of Jarosław Gowin’s work as MinSci. This done, the deputy PM has become even more involved in current politics. He often appears in the media, commenting on political events, not necessarily from his own brief. He also joined the making of the law on the Supreme Court, which implemented the interim measure ordered by the CJEU in connection with Eu- rCom’s complaint against Poland. At the same time, Gowin did not neglect his own grouping - his party ran several hundred candidates in the local government elections.

Law 2.0 came into force despite protests. The Sejm adopted it in July 2018. The voting was preceded by protests by students and academic staff of many universities who opposed the marginalisation of smaller academic centres and the reduction of political independence, changes in financing and reducing the internal democracy of the universities. A large group of PiS MPs, including Ryszard Terlecki, were also unhappy with the law on higher education and science. Ultimately, however, all PiS MPs voted in favour of the new regulations, after introducing 80 governmental amendments. As part of the work on the act, the ministry consulted with the scientific community for over a year -the latter’s approval for the bill diminished over time.

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 22 The changes have already been adopted but their effects will not be visible for a while. The law extends the differences in the scope of activity of schools offering academic and professional higher education - only the former will be able to continue to have PhD students and to grant the “habilitation” to holders of doctoral degrees. PhD students will be paid higher scholarships but on the condition of progress in their doctoral work. The position of rectors will be strengthened and they will have a greater impact on the selection of employees and approval of the university’s budget. Higher education institutions have until the end of the academic year to introduce changes, but there is already chaos in many universities as well as uncertainty as to how the reforms will look in practice. There have also been calls to abandon combining scientific disciplines (disciplines such as cultural studies, management or dietetics have disappeared).

Systematic improvement of cooperation between science and business. The bill on the “Research Network” (Łukasiewicz) has been submitted to the Sejm, it is to provide the technological and intellectual background of the administration. Entrepreneurs will also be able to use the results of its research and work. At the end of 2017, the so-called second act on innovation, which introduced the possibility of deducting 100 per cent of the costs for research and development entered into force. In March 2019, the second edition of the PhD implementation programme will begin, which will make an academic career based on achievements in technological work commissioned by the business possible.

NCBiR works, but is having problems. Our interlocutors praise the actions of the National Centre for Research and Development for the efficiency and transparency of activities. However, tensions have recently appeared between the Centre and businesses. In No- vember, Solaris announced that it would not take part in a big tender for the development and delivery of Polish e-buses, which poses an image problem for NCBiR. The company has been commenting on the project for several weeks, but its advice has not been he- eded. In August, NCBiR changed the rules of one of the programmes (BRIdge Alfa), lowe- ring the investment ceiling for funds from 3 million to 1 million PLN. The Centre says that the change is due to EU regulations, but investors complain that they were not informed about work on the new rules.

Some scientists are returning. The National Academic Exchange Agency founded by Gowin has been operating for a year. As part of the „Return to Poland” programme, 22 scientists will return to the country and receive remuneration matching European standards. It is, however, difficult to talk about the project being a spectacular success. In the first place, it causes tensions between returnees and those who have been working in Poland for years and earn much less. Secondly, there is virtually no chance of attracting outstanding specialists - the country often lacks the tools for conducting research at a global level. On the other hand, researchers who return from abroad may have a positive impact on changing working standards in Poland.

Important deputy ministers have gone. In January, Łukasz Szumowski left MinSci (he became MinHea), followed in March by Aleksander Bobko, responsible for higher education. Earlier Teresa Czerwińska left the ministry to became MinFin. The departure of the valued experts, Szumowski and Czerwińska, weakened the ministry. Among those remaining in MinSci is Piotr Dardziński (responsible for innovation) who has been praised by experts. Responsible for Reform 2.0, the 29-year-old Deputy Minister has long been associated with the PiS (he ran in the parliamentary election for the Sejm in as early as 2011).

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 23 B+ POLITICAL CLOUT

MinSci has a good relationship with Jarosław Kaczyński and talks with him relatively frequently. The deputy PM is also strengthened by his close cooperation with Adam Bie- lan - vice president of Porozumienie and a close advisor to the PiS leader. The governing party no longer needs Gowin’s party in the Sejm - it is able to form a majority without his nine MPs - but this fact did not affect the relationship between Gowin and, nor has it lowered the political position of the deputy PM. As MinSci, Gowin has a lot of independence (he is not controlled by anyone from PiS in the ministry), and his main success in this term was the passing of the 2.0 act and persuading Kaczyński to introduce party discipline on this issue. Gowin has a good relationship with MinTech Jadwiga Emilewicz; his relations with Mateusz Morawiecki are correct.

B+ PUBLIC PERCEPTION

Jarosław Gowin is one of the most recognisable politicians (he is known by 84 per cent of Poles), he also enjoys a high level of trust (38 per cent). He often appears in the media and is active on Twitter. He occasionally distances himself slightly from the PiS line - he abstained from voting on November 12 because it was a day off work and criticised PiS’s anti-refugee TV ad. He has also been known to publicly appreciate Donald Tusk. Gowin’s activity is not free of mishaps - at the end of February 2018, he told Radio Zet that „he sometimes struggles to make ends meet”, which caused a wave of criticism against him (confidence in him dropped by 8 percentage points). However, the deputy PM apologised for these words. Problems in adopting the 2.0 Act contributed to the deterioration of his relationship with the scientific community.

OUTLOOK

Jaroslaw Gowin will maintain a strong position in the government despite the decline in the importance of his grouping. The deputy PM does not want to be completely dependent on PiS - he is expanding his own party and has managed to attract one MP from Nowoczesna and another from PSL. It is clear to him, however, that Porozumienie is unlikely to survive as an independent party. If PiS stays in power after 2019, Gowin has a good chance of remaining in government.

AUTHOR

Joanna Sawicka Political Affairs Analyst B

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 24 Mariusz Błaszczak Minister of National Defence

Builder of Fort Trump Mariusz Błaszczak is less confrontational than Antoni Macierewicz, but not as effective as his predecessor. He has focused on a small number of tasks, marginalising the rest.

B policy and governance B GENERAL RATING A- political clout B public perception

B POLICY AND GOVERNANCE

Mariusz Błaszczak, who reluctantly took over as MinDef after the ousting of Antoni Macierewicz in January, has abandoned the revolution in defence issues and focuses on a few selected tasks. He concentrates on a permanent US military base, creating a fourth army division and concluding the final agreement on the Wisła air defence system. These tasks are fulfilled by himself or by trusted people drawn from MinInt and officers whom he himself has appointed. He gets on well with the president, although he is not always able to push through his ideas in the Cabinet. Under his leadership, the pace of changes in defence has clearly decreased.

Staked his credibility on Fort Trump. In the spring, Błaszczak repeated a proposal prepared by his predecessor to host US army divisions in Poland. In September he returned to the topic in the intergovernmental negotiations with President Andrzej Duda’s slogan „Fort Trump”. Błaszczak held four rounds of talks at the Pentagon, White House and Congress on this matter, and appointed a team under the direction of Deputy MinDef To- masz Szatkowski for regular contacts with the Americans. In the event of the Pentagon’s positive recommendation for the permanent stationing of a land forces brigade in Poland, Błaszczak will be able to claim most of the credit for himself.

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 25 Good relations rebuilt with president. Błaszczak has succeeded in resolving the dispute over the army at the heart of political power. He regularly talks and meets with Andrzej Duda and discussed changes in the command structure and nominations of key comman- ders from the National Security Bureau. In agreement with Duda, he nominated the Chief of the General Staff, General Rajmund Andrzejczak, and agreed to the president’s idea of buying second-hand ships from Australia, which was later blocked by the PM. Breaking the deadlock in cooperation between MinDef and Duda, which lasted when Macierewicz headed the ministry, made it possible to unblock the appointment of generals. There have been two rounds this year, and a third is planned for November 10.

Unstable management of ministry. Błaszczak removed Macierewicz’s people and drew colleagues from MinInt to replace them. He retained only Deputy MinDef Tomasz Szat- kowski, who conducts the talks with the US but is due to leave for Brussels in January. Deputy MinDef Sebastian Chwałek who was responsible for modernisation departed for PGZ, and Marek Łapiński informally assumed some of his competences. For the first time, the MinDef has no deputy minister responsible for arms procurement. The structure of the office has also changed, with more power given to civilians: the director general, director of the minister’s office and director of the operations centre.

Expansion of professional army. In September, the MinDef appointed the fourth division of land forces, for which a new brigade was to be formed. Błaszczak is expanding units in the east of the country - he has located a new division in Siedlce and a brigade is to be located in Lublin. In October, he announced the expansion of the artillery division in Suwałki to the size of a regiment. The ministry also started a large recruitment campaign to the professional army. Błaszczak has not stopped supporting the territorial defence forces, but he does not put this formation ahead of the professional army, as did Macierewicz.

Modernization frozen except for Wisła. Błaszczak took over the MinDef at the end of negotiations of the first phase of the Wisła air defence system and on March 28 signed an order for two Patriot batteries. The ministry’s representative was given the task of concluding a contract before the parliamentary elections. By allocating most of the available funds to Wisła, Błaszczak has practically stopped other large defence programmes: sub- marines and ships, helicopters and drones. He only managed to send the US a two-thirds order for ground-to-ground Homar rockets. He has, however, failed to develop a new multi-year modernisation plan.

Bad management of arms industry. Błaszczyk’s greatest failure was the appointment of Jakub Skiba as CEO of PGZ – he did not succeed running arms company. As a result, MinDef had to share influence in the loss-making PGZ with Mateusz Morawiecki’s camp. The new management of the group includes the PM’s trusted associates, while Witold Słowik who has been associated with PiS’s financial base, became the CEO,. Błaszczak also failed to set up the Armament Agency, announced after his appointment. Policy towards the industry is characterized by chaos - from the announcement of modernisation of over 300 old tanks to giving up the offset in the case of the Homar launchers.

A- POLITICAL CLOUT

Błaszczak is the vice-president of both the party and the parliamentary caucus and is a member of the PiS political committee. Until recently, he was also Jarosław Kaczyń- ski’s closest collaborator. Challenging the purchase of second-hand frigates by the lobby focused on Joachim Brudzinski showed, however, that Błaszczak is losing influence on decisions. Unlike Macierewicz, however, Błaszczak has a greater „coalition capability” in

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 26 the government, which he demonstrates through good relations with President Andrzej Duda. Before the local elections, Błaszczak was mentioned as a candidate for the Marshal of the Sejm in a possible reconstruction of the government; for the moment the prospect of MinDef’s resignation has faded somewhat.

B PUBLIC PERCEPTION

Błaszczak has more people trusting than distrusting him - 39 to 27 per cent, but as many as 17 per cent say they do not know who he is (CBOS, October). MinDef restricts media activity to PiS-friendly media where he does not face uncomfortable questions. He does not organise press conferences and for the first time in its history, MinDef has no press spokesperson. Błaszczak has avoided more serious mishaps, but he has failed in the programme to support shooting ranges in localities and building independence benches has been delayed. A public relations success was the parade on Polish Army Day, organised for the first time on Wisłostrada. In the defence industry, he is perceived as meticulous and reasonable, but less decisive than Macierewicz. The army appreciates him for its pay rises.

OUTLOOK

Involvement in efforts to establish a permanent base of American troops seems to gu- arantee Błaszczyk an assured position in the government, at least until the Pentagon’s recommendation in this matter is issued in the spring of 2019. The signing of an agreement with the US for the Wisła system, planned for the autumn of next year, will make it more likely that he will remain in the job until the end of the term. If PiS decides to reconstruct the government, however, and offers Błaszczak another job, he will probably leave Min- Def without regret. Despite the slower pace of changes being introduced and less ambitious goals regarding modernisation, the minister is not widely criticised. During his time in office, public interest in defence has clearly fallen but Poland is still praised in the NATO and US forums for high levels of spending.

AUTHOR

Marek Świerczyński Senior Analyst for Security Affairs B

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 27 Jerzy Kwieciński Minister of Investment and Economic Development

Strong in substantive terms, weak politically Jerzy Kwieciński is responsible for many programs announced by the PM. Some of his work, however, is blocked by important PiS politicians.

B+ policy and governance B GENERAL RATING B- political clout B- public perception

B+ POLICY AND GOVERNANCE

Jerzy Kwieciński is more of a civil servant than a politician and is a valued expert on EU funds, which he first dealt with in the 1990s. As deputy MinDev in Beata Szydło’s government, he gained the trust of Mateusz Morawiecki, who was then the deputy prime minister. Thus, he became a natural candidate for a new minister when, in January 2018, a Ministry of Investment and Development was carved out of MinDev and MinFin.

Minister for the implementation of SOR. MinDev creates a long-term development policy for the country. He also supports the prime minister in implementing the most important programs under the „Strategy for responsible development” (SOR). He is responsible for such government programmes as Housing+ and Accessibility+. The name of the ministry emphasizes the importance of investments for the state; the government’s goal is to increase their share in GDP. Kwieciński heads up a committee set up this year for monitoring the portfolio of strategic projects (it also includes other ministers). However, his influence on other ministries is limited, unless he has Mateusz Morawiecki’s support on a given issue.

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 28 Supervises spending of EU funds. In this respect, Poland is in the middle of the EU ta- ble but it has the largest amount of money to spend of all EU countries - more than EUR 104.9 billion (including its own contribution), that is over PLN 450 billion. Problems with the spending of funds exist, but only, as Kwieciński said during the local government election campaign, in some regions. According to MinDev data, the value of investments co-financed from operational programmes up to November 18 reached PLN 364.4 billion, of which PLN 218 billion came from the EU. In the coming year, there should be an accumulation of investments on roads and railway lines – the mounting problems with contractors may make their implementation difficult.

Took over Housing+ programme. Kwieciński’s ministry took over construction from MinInfra (now Artur Soboń’s responsibility) after Andrzej Adamczyk failed to handle the introduction of the flagship PiS programme. At present, housing policy is coordinated by the housing council established at PMChan, with the company PFR Nieruchomości taking on the bulk of the programme’s implementation. MinDev also prepared regulations that are to accelerate the construction of apartments, including a special housing act and an act introducing state subsidies for renting apartments. The effects of the programme are slowly beginning to be discernible - by the end of October, 651 apartments were handed over to tenants, 953 were under construction, and 6,200 were at the design stage. The government promises that at the end of 2019, the building of 100,000 apartments will be underway (at least at the design stage).

Implements announcements from PM’s exposé. One of these was the creation of a support programme for elderly and disabled people, for example by eliminating infrastructural bar- riers. The Accessibility+ programme was inaugurated by the PM in April 2018, and MinDev is responsible for its implementation. Among other things, the ministry is preparing a draft law introducing the obligation to take into account the needs of disabled or elderly people in public policies, including in the design of buildings and the purchase of urban transport. The programme covers the years 2018-2025 and the government wants to allocate about PLN 23 billion to it. This will probably accelerate next year because of the upcoming elections.

Support for cities and regions. MinDev coordinates several initiatives of the PiS government which are supposed to level out development opportunities in the regions. It includes a programme for Śląsk, which is to help in the economic transformation of this province, and the “Package” for medium-sized cities, enabling support for 255 cities in Poland, including 122 threatened by the loss of socio-economic functions. New initiatives include the Programme for Bieszczady (about PLN 1 billion of support for infrastructure or tourism development) and Bridges for Regions. This latter programme envisages spending PLN 2.3 billion for the construction of bridges connecting poviats separated from each other by rivers by 2025.

An attempt to revive PPP. This year, MinDev adopted the most significant amendment to the Act on Public-Private Partnership in many years. The regulations, praised by business and local government, came into force on September 19, but their effects will not be visible for a while. MinDev wants at least 100 new PPP contracts, including ten government contracts, to be concluded by the end of 2020. In the meantime, 140 agreements were concluded between 2009 and mid-2018, the vast majority of which were local government projects, not government ones.

Loss of deputy ministers weakened MinDev. In September, two deputy ministers left MinDev. Witold Słowik, whose responsibilities in the ministry included PPP and imple-

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 29 menting the Juncker plan, became the CEO of Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa. Paweł Chorąży, on the other hand, was dismissed after he suggested during a discussion at the Jagiello- nian Club that bringing in potential repatriates from, for example, Kazakhstan could be less profitable than workers from Vietnam or India. This last departure practically stopped work on the government’s migration policy. Kwieciński previously announced that it will be ready in mid-2018.

B- POLITICAL CLOUT

Kwieciński was the deputy minister of regional development in the PiS government in 2006-2007, he is also on the party’s programme council, but is not a member of PiS. PM Mateusz Morawiecki and the more „progressive” ministers such as MinTech Jadwiga Emilewicz support him in the Cabinet. The political weakness of Kwieciński was shown by the lost tussle with MinInt Joachim Brudzinski on the new migration policy, which aroused great controversy, especially among the more conservative PiS electorate. Kwie- ciński was active in the local government election campaign - he gave substantial support to PiS candidates, including Patryk Jaki.

B- PUBLIC PERCEPTION

Kwieciński has a good reputation with the business community and abroad, including in Brussels. He often meets with representatives of other countries and speaks English fluently. He is quite active in social media. Kwieciński does not disguise the fact that he is a Roman-Catholic and conservative, so he is appreciated in right-wing circles, including the media of Tomasz Sakiewicz. He also appears in other media, but he is not very recognisable, because his statements mainly concern economic matters. CBOS does not include him in its surveys of trust in politicians.

OUTLOOK

Kwieciński has no great political ambitions. He focuses on substantive issues and his actions so far have been supported by the very favourable economic situation in Poland. He is a faithful collaborator of PM Morawiecki and would be difficult to replace, given the small number of economic experts within PiS, especially in the field of EU funds. Kwie- ciński’s role may grow in the coming years due to the accumulation of EU spending from the current perspective and the ongoing negotiations regarding the budget for 2021-2027.

AUTHOR

Leszek Baj Senior Business Analyst B Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 30 Elżbieta Rafalska Minister of Family, Labour and Social Policy

Pro social welfare minister but not pro-business Elżbieta Rafalska hasn’t managed to enact a Labour Code, and the law on Sunday shopping needs to be improved. New social programmes have been delayed.

B policy and governance B GENERAL RATING B- political clout B- public perception

B POLICY AND GOVERNANCE

Elżbieta Rafalska, who became the minister in November 2015, was one of the cabinet’s stars in the first half of the PiS government’s term and the face of the most important social projects. Over the last year, however, her position and image have definitely deteriorated. The 500+ programme no longer strengthens the minister, and there are delays in creating the new social programmes. Rafalska was also weakened by the spring protest of disabled people in the Sejm. At the same time, business criticises her for focusing on social issues, while neglecting labour and economic issues.

PiS social programmes slowed down somewhat. On June 1, the MinFam’s „Good Start” law came into force, which introduced an annual allowance of PLN 300 for every child studying (up to the age of 20). According to Rafalska, almost 100 per cent of those entitled to the benefit in 2018 took it up. This year, funding for Toddler+ programme, which offers local authorities support in the construction of nurseries increased (from PLN 151 million in 2017 to PLN 450 million). One of the ministry’s most important projects, Mum four+, which is to introduce allowances for mothers with at least four children, has, however, been delayed. The law was to come into force in January 2019, but the project was

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 31 imprecise and after criticism from ZUS, among others, it was sent back for amendment. The changes will probably take effect in March 2019.

No 500+ for pensioners. On September 20, the CouMin standing committee adopted a general strategy for policy on older citizens, but it lacks systemic solutions. PiS politicians have repeatedly promised to introduce an annual supplement for pensioners (in Sep- tember, Jarosław Kaczyński spoke about PLN 500), but no project was created. MinFam proposed a new mechanism for indexation of pensions in 2019. Minimum pensions and allowances will increase to PLN 1,100, and the smallest indexation will amount to PLN 70. The poorest will benefit most from the changes.

Disabled protest damaged minister. Rafalska was unable to resolve the conflict between PiS and the disabled protesters in the Sejm. She met with them several times, but the talks did not bring a breakthrough. As a result, the opposition submitted a motion of no confidence in Rafalska which was, however, rejected by PiS MPs. Ultimately, the ruling party gave in to one of the protesters’ two main demands - it equalised the social pension with the minimum allowance for total incapacity to work. The government has also created the Disabled People Support Fund, which will be financed from an additional tax on the richest people.

Problems with the contribution limit. Not until autumn did businesses learn that changes to the law on the social insurance system (ZUS) would not be implemented at all, although they were to take effect from January 2019. In autumn 2017, MinFam prepared a draft amendment, which proposed to abolish the 30-fold limit, whereby taxpayers do not pay ZUS contributions on earnings over the limit. It was supposed to bring additional money to the Social Insurance Fund but would have resulted in a significant increase in labour costs. The president sent the bill to ConTrib in January 2018, and in November it decla- red the bill unconstitutional. Rafalska has been subject to unofficial criticism from the pro-business circles close to PM Mateusz Morawiecki. The employers and “Solidarność” were also opposed to the act.

New Labour Code binned. A committee started work in mid-September 2016, headed by deputy MinFam Marcin Zieleniecki, which was to develop a new Labour Code. The current document is over 40 years old and has been amended many times. In March 2018, the committee produced two drafts: a Labour Code and a Code of Collective Labour Law. They anticipated ideas such as the introduction of payroll accounts (money for overtime was to be collected by the firms and paid out during production stoppages), new forms of employment and change in the functioning of trade unions. The proposals were so controversial that the representatives of “Solidarnośc”, the OPZZ trade union and the Em- ployers of Poland on the codification committee voted against them. Rafalska eventually abandoned work on a new Labour Code. She announced only that the government will adopt some of the elements proposed by the committee.

Problems with jobcentre reform. At the end of June, MinFam sent a bill on the labour market to public consultations. It was supposed to replace the Act on the promotion of employment and labour market institutions, which has been in force for over 14 years and has been amended many times. The new project envisaged extending the length of time Ukrainians would be allowed to work based on a declaration and the end of profiling of the unemployed by job centres. There were, however, so many comments on the bill that the ministry had to withdraw it to be re-worked. The changes will not come into effect as planned, namely from January 1, 2019. MinFam may also withdraw from some provisions, such as those on making it easier to bring in workers from abroad, so as not to cause controversy before next year’s elections.

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 32 Gaps in Sunday shopping ban. Although the idea of a shopping ban on some Sundays came from “Solidarnośc”, MinFam took the project over. The law came into force in March 2018, but it aroused strong opposition, including from shopping chains that warned that the ban would hurt the Polish economy. It has not so far translated into a clear decline in consumption but will be extended to more Sundays next year. In addition, the Act turned out to have loopholes which the Sejm is currently working to close - in particular, the fact that Żabka shops are not allowed to operate on Sundays but can open as post offices.

B- POLITICAL CLOUT

The departure of Beata Szydło from the post of PM worsened Rafalska’s political position. The MinFam already clashed with the pro-business Morawiecki when he was the deputy PM, but Szydło’s support allowed Rafalska to carry out the reforms efficiently. Now the minister has lost a strong ally. She also has a chilly relationship with Jarosław Kaczyński. In November, one of the most effective deputy ministers left the ministry - Bartosz Mar- czuk, responsible for 500+, joined the management board of PFR.

B- PUBLIC PERCEPTION

Rafalska enjoys the trust of 42 per cent of Poles, and is recognised by three-quarters of respondents - this is one of the best results among the PiS government ministers in the CBOS trust ranking. MinFam is appreciated for the introduction of the 500+ programme, but her image has been weakened by failed talks with the disabled, protesting in the Sejm in the spring. In recent months, her activity in the media has also decreased. In addition, Rafalska is criticised by business people for an excessive focus on social issues and lack of cooperation with business.

OUTLOOK

Although Elżbieta Rafalska currently has worse relations with the PM minister than a year ago, her position in the government seems to be safe. The MinFam has the reputation of being hard-working and shunning politics. However, it cannot be ruled out that Rafalska will try for a place on the election lists for EurParl. She has already run unsuccessfully in 2009 and 2014. If PiS retains power in 2019, the minister is unlikely to remain in office.

AUTHOR

Joanna Sawicka, Political Affairs Analyst Leszek Baj, Senior Business Analyst B Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 33 Łukasz Szumowski Minister of Health

Minister who silences disputes Łukasz Szumowski digitises health care and invests in research. He is not, however, planning major reforms.

B+ policy and governance B GENERAL RATING B- political clout B- public perception

B+ POLICY AND GOVERNANCE

Łukasz Szumowski joined Mateusz Morawiecki’s cabinet in January 2018, replacing Kon- stanty Radziwiłł who had failed to deal with a conflict with junior doctors lasting several months. Szumowski came to MinHea from the MinSci, where he was the deputy minister responsible for creating a Scientific Academic Exchange Agency. Unlike Radziwiłł, Szumowski did not announce deep reforms. He focused on smaller changes and solving current problems.

Dealt with conflict with junior doctors. In February 2018 Szumowski signed the agreement, four months after the doctors’ protest started. In July, the Sejm adopted a law guaranteeing an increase in health spending to 6 per cent of GDP in 2024. In the same month, the salaries of specialist doctors were increased to PLN 6,750 gross. The Ministry of Health did, however, set conditions - according to the new regulations, a two-year com- mitment to work in Poland must be carried out in an entity financed from public money, and in order to receive increases, doctors must work only in one entity. In September, Szumowski also entered into an agreement with striking paramedics (he promised them an increase in wages, among other things), and, in July, an agreement with protesting nurses and midwives.

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 34 Digitalisation moves forward. Progress on this issue made thanks to deputy MinHea Janusz Cieszyński, is also praised by the opposition. September saw the completion of a pilot programme for e-prescriptions in four cities finished. The nation-wide system is to operate from 2020. In October, a pilot programme of e-referrals began in Warsaw - they will be introduced in the whole country from 2021. The next step will be e-sick-leave certificates that will take effect in December 2018 (their implementation has been postponed since July) - some of the medical community oppose them, but the draft is mainly prepared by MinFam and only partly by MinHea.

New research funds. In September, the ministry announced its draft on the Medical Rese- arch Agency which is to be established in 2019. Its goals include increasing the number of non-commercial clinical trials on rare diseases, supporting innovation in medical research and increasing the efficiency of research programmes. The media criticised the project for the high levels of remuneration for the Agency’s heads and employees (they would have amounted to 0.3 per cent of the NFZ income or several million zlotys per year). The law was amended to reduce the salaries of management of the new institution. According to our interlocutors, the creation of the Agency has been Szumowski’s goal for many years and was one of the main reasons why he agreed to become MinHea.

Oncology network growing slowly. The pilot of the national oncology network announced in PM Morawiecki’s exposé will begin in the Świętokrzyskie and Dolnośląskie voivodships in December. It is to introduce coordinators into the system to guide patients throughout the entire treatment process. The nationwide network will not, however, be launched before the end of the parliamentary term. In December, MinHea will also launch a me- chanical thrombectomy pilot (post-stroke thrombosis removal), followed by a pilot of comprehensive care for patients with heart failure.

Little progress in medicines policy. In September, Deputy MinHea Marcin Czech presented the strategy of medicines policy for 2018-2022 which is to optimise medical spending. In the long term, it should result in the reduction of the incidence of infectious diseases. The document was positively received by the pharmaceutical industry although the latter criticised MinHea for not providing information on the date and manner of introducing changes. Experts are also awaiting the adoption of a long-promised law implementing the development of a refund scheme, which was being prepared by former deputy MinHea Krzysztof Łanda. The ministry is also working on limiting the illegal export of medicines – this should be helped by the laws on e-prescriptions and separating the wholesalers from the clinics, already adopted by MinHea. MinJus is also conducting independent work in this area.

Some queues shortened. According to the Watch Health Care report from April and May 2018, Poles are waiting 3.7 months for a single guaranteed appointment. This is 2 weeks more than last year. Among the 39 areas of medicine, there was an improvement in accessibility in 13 of them; in 16 the availability deteriorated. The queues to the endocri- nologist grew the most (from 12.7 months to 23 months), while the waiting time for an appointment with an infectious disease specialist was cut the most (by 2.6 months). The ministry is convinced, however, that the situation has started to improve. That is because, in the last quarter of 2018, the spending on outpatient specialist care increased, which has already allowed a reduction in the queues for endocrinologists and for cataract surgery, amongst others.

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 35 B- POLITICAL CLOUT

Szumowski is not a member of PiS, and before he entered the government (first at MinSci and then as MinHea), he dealt mainly with medical practice and scientific work. He has good relations with Jarosław Kaczyński, and also with Mateusz Morawiecki, whom he has known privately for a long time. He also gets along well with Jarosław Gowin, whom he supported in his most important reform introducing changes in the university system. He also has good relations with Elżbieta Rafalska and Marek Zagórski, with whom he cooperates on the introduction of e-prescriptions and e-sick-leave certificates. The MinHea does not take part in political conflicts in the government.

B- PUBLIC PERCEPTION

Two-thirds of Poles are unable to recognise Szumowski. This is not necessarily bad news for him - health ministers often gain recognition during major crises, which Szumowski has managed to avoid for the time being. He is trusted by 15 per cent of Poles and distru- sted by 8 per cent. Szumowski appears in the media, but he speaks mainly about health rather than national issues, which makes him less visible than many other cabinet members. He is respected in the medical community as both a cardiologist and a scientist.

OUTLOOK

Łukasz Szumowski has fulfilled the main task entrusted to him by PiS authorities, i.e. resolving conflicts that weakened the government which is why he will probably remain in office until the end of the government’s term. The medical community believes that Szumowski is one of the better health ministers in recent years, although the avoidance of major crises is mentioned as his main achievement. It seems that Szumowski has no plans for a further political career when his spell at MinHea comes to an end - he will probably return to scientific work and medical practice.

AUTHOR

Joanna Sawicka Political Affairs Analyst B

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 36 Marek Zagórski Minister of Digital Affairs

Cuts his coat according to his cloth Marek Zagórski tries to avoid conflicts in the government, but a weak political position prevents him from making decisions. He focuses on legislation instead.

B+ policy and governance B GENERAL RATING C+ political clout C+ public perception

B+ POLICY AND GOVERNANCE

Marek Zagórski became the acting minister in January after the dismissal of Anna Stre- żyńska, and in April he was appointed as MinDig. In order to get the job, he moved from Jarosław Gowin’s Porozumienie to PiS. Streżyńska had the reputation of a visionary, while the new minister turned out to be a methodical realist. Zagórski calmed the mood in the ministry after the turbulent end of his predecessor’s term - he normalised contacts with other ministries and did not get into conflicts. Business appreciates his pragmatism, but the lack of a strong political position makes it impossible for him to make some decisions on his own. He focuses on creating a legislative framework for digitisation.

Uncertainty over 5G. Starting investments in the network is in a long term the most important task that Zagórski is facing. It is still unclear how it will be created. There are several possibilities: each operator working independently, extensive cooperation or a national operator taking charge. Telecom representatives believe that these considerations are a waste of time; meanwhile, Exatel, which would like to be the operator of the national network, lobbies Zagórski. The costs of introducing 5G in Poland are estimated at PLN 10-20 billion, but it is clear that it will be difficult to find the entire sum. The market is waiting for so-called mega-law to facilitate investments in the development of telecom-

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 37 munications. It is unclear whether Zagórski will decide to fight for changes in restrictive electromagnetic radiation standards, as it is politically risky.

Priorities set, but there are delays. Zagórski ended some of the projects that the ministry dealt with when Streżyńska was minister. It turned out that some of them had not even been started, while others Zagórski considered unnecessary (fewer than 1,000 people used IDs on smartphone). He decided to concentrate on several major projects, such as e-IDs. He and MinInt have time until March 2019 to complete the project - if they do not make it, Poland will have to give back PLN 150 million of EU subsidies, which it received for this purpose. Zagórski must also take charge of the Central Registration of Vehicles and Drivers inherited from the previous government. The system had serious problems between November 2017 and June 2018, so the ministry postponed introducing further functionalities until 2019.

Rejects central information systems. Zagórski believes that digitisation should be carried out through small projects; he also decided to cooperate with external partners. This is the case, for instance, with the management of public data in the cloud. The project has been announced by PKO BP in cooperation with PFR, but private companies will also be allowed to join, and public offices and institutions will be able to buy services from them. The work on opening public access to portions of the NFZ, GUS, MinDig and MinFin databases are being finalised.

RODO introduced without disaster, cybersecurity stabilised. MinDig adopted the law on the protection of personal data on time, creating the Office for the Protection of Personal Data, but has missed the implementing provisions - these are still not enacted. In Zagór- ski’s defence, he became head of the ministry at the very end of the legislative work. The law on the national cybersecurity system, which introduces the EU directive on network security in Poland, is working. The system was set up after the deadline, but compared to other countries, Poland is doing well. Robert Kośla became the head of the MinDig cybersecurity department; a government plenipotentiary for cybersecurity will be appointed soon.

Survived crises. In June there was a serious failure of the ePUAP system used by government offices but the ministry’s IT specialists quickly restored it to action. In July, MinDig pulled out of the criticised draft of the prohibited pages register. The problem with the IT systems in government offices returned during the local government election campaign. Zagórski’s ministry organised a conference with the participation of Patryk Jaki, to encourage electronic subscription to the electoral register (including by ePUAP). The ministry attracted criticism for supporting one of the election candidates, and later for the poor preparation of ePUAP. During the elections, it turned out that several thousand people could not vote. The system was unsuited to the practice of local authorities.

Strengthened by good deputy ministers. After the cuts in the positions of deputy ministers in March, MinDig was left with only one - Karol Okoński, who deals mainly with digitisation projects. He has a reputation of being hard-working and is a good speaker at the level of both parliamentary committees and foreign meetings. In July, Wanda Buk joined the ministry, she is responsible for telecommunications. Previously she was the head of the Digital Poland Project Centre (Centrum Projektów Polska Cyfrowa), where she effectively distributed subsidies for the construction of a broadband internet network. This is the largest investment of this type financed from EU funds in history. On November 21, Poland received EurCom’s European Broadband Award for it.

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 38 C+ POLITICAL CLOUT

Marek Zagórski is linked with Artur Balazs, and became a member of PiS this year. Were it not for the problem finding a minister of digitisation, he would not have got the job. He is on good terms with Mateusz Morawiecki and has proper relations with other ministers. His position in the ruling party is rather weak, but compared to Anna Streżyńska he is a more efficient politician. Unlike its predecessor, he does not try to take the position of an independent, apolitical specialist, but tries to seek allies in the party and government to be able to implement the plans of the ministry. Zagórski has a chance to strengthen his position in PiS by supporting the ruling camp’s candidates in the upcoming European and parliamentary campaigns.

C+ PUBLIC PERCEPTION

Zagórski is less recognisable than Anna Streżyńska – he is not included in CBOS trust surveys. During public performances, he is quite reserved, and Poles usually hear his name on the occasion of major IT system failures or the introduction of new electronic functionalities for citizens. Next year he will get a chance to improve his position thanks to the launch of the e-delivery project - an electronic system allowing citizens to contact the administration. Business believes that Zagórski is more predictable than Streżyńska. It does not expect, however, that he will defend its interests if it is politically difficult.

OUTLOOK

For Zagórski, the most important thing next year will be to avoid crises. A prolonged bre- akdown of one of the large IT systems would be a threat to his career in the government. Another problem may be the failure of one of the important projects, such as the online Nationwide Education Network, or a need to return the EU subsidy for e-IDs. If Zagórski avoids mistakes, he will complete his term in office. The lack of a strong political position of Zagórski in PiS means that finding a position in a possible future PiS government is uncertain.

AUTHOR

Michał A. Zieliński Business Analyst B

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 39 Jan Ardanowski Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development

The farmers’ voice in government Jan Ardanowski has had little time to solve problems that farmers were facing; his predecessor could not handle them.

B- policy and governance B- GENERAL RATING B- political clout C+ public perception

B- POLICY AND GOVERNANCE

Jan Ardanowski became MinAgr on June 20, 2018. He replaced the unpopular Krzysztof Jurgiel, who was accused of inefficiency in the fight against African Swine Fever (ASF), amongst other things. The nomination of Ardanowski, a farmer and former president of the National Council of Agricultural Chambers, was to help PiS in the local government elections in the countryside where the party was competing against PSL. Active in the election campaign, the MinAgr has had relatively little time to really help the farmers, especially since he inherited many problems from his predecessor.

Problems with drought. According to MinAgr data, farmers’ losses due to the lack of rain- fall amounted to almost PLN 3.7 billion. The ministry awarded the victims compensation – this was dependent on the amount lost and whether the crops were insured. According to our information, the process of payment is running smoothly. Farmers complain, however, about delays in estimating losses (Ardanowski blamed local authorities), heavy bu- reaucracy in the process and selective treatment of the aggrieved. Another problem is the suspension by the Agency for Restructuring and Modernisation of Agriculture of the size of preferential disaster loans, due to the exhaustion of the limit of public aid which does not need to be reported to the EurCom (the so-called de minimis). Changes in drought insurance were adopted, however, which are to increase the number of farmers using it.

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 40 Poor reaction to low fruit and vegetable prices. Overproduction and intensifying competition with imported goods caused the prices of some fruit and vegetables to fall below the level of profitable production. This was one of the main reasons for the farmers’ summer protests. The soft fruit market (raspberries, gooseberries) and apples suffered the most. For the time being, Ardanowski only addressed the problems of fruit farmers - he started intervention by buying apples. According to the National Council of Agricultural Cham- bers, the initiative has not resulted in higher prices on the market. To stabilise them in the future, MinAgr wants to create a National Cooperative Holding based on the National Sugar Company and the grain buyer, Elewarr, amongst others. The plans for the new institution have not been made public, however, and some producers, such as dairy farmers, complain that the process of creating the Holding is not transparent.

ASF slowed down slightly. New outbreaks have appeared less frequently in recent weeks than at the beginning of the year. This is partly due to the low temperatures and partly to the activities of the ministry, which introduced a refund of 75 per cent of biosecuri- ty costs. Farms that cannot afford protection against the virus are compensated for the liquidation of the herds (but this may lead to a decrease in production). The fight against ASF led to Ardanowski’s conflict with hunters who refused to increase the number of kil- lings wild boars that spread the virus. MinAgrpromised them an increase in the rate per individual shot, but the regulation has not yet come into force.

Supervision of social movements in the countryside. Ardanowski is sponsoring a law on the clubs for rural housewives. It assumes the possibility of applying for a subsidy of PLN 3,000; it also enables them to run a business. In exchange, the clubs must register with ARIMR. MinAgr wants to increase its political influence in the countryside - since there are about 28,000 clubs in Poland, this means an indirect influence on about 400,000 women. A further attempt to win voters was to increase the subsidies for agricultural fuel by PLN 14 per hectare for farmers. This will cost PLN 320 million a year. Farmers expect, however, that subsidies will increase further.

Improving his predecessors’s decisions. Ardanowski wants to amend the act of 2016 and increase the limit of agricultural land which can be purchased by non-farmers (from 0.3 ha to 1 ha). Starting from January 1, regulations that will facilitate small-scale sales of food will start to apply – the limit will rise from PLN 20,000 to 40,000; it will also be possible for farmers to sell products to shops, restaurants and hotels. The new minister also decided to merge two previously separate events: the Pride of Poland auction and the national Arab horse championship. Next year they will be held together in Janów Podlaski.

Staff changes in ministry companies and institutions.The following people connected with Jurgiel have lost their positions: the head of KRUS (the vice-president has become head) and the director of the National Centre for Agricultural Support (replaced by Piotr Serafin - a former PiS candidate for the Sejm) and three of his deputies. Former PiS MP Andrzej Jaworski left the board of the National Sugar Company (KSC). Krzysztof Kowa became head of the KSC: he is considered a professional and has already managed this company in the past. Ardanowski also appointed two new deputy ministers: Tadeusz Ro- mańczuk, a PiS senator with business experience, who is currently responsible for managing land, and Szymon Giżyński, a PiS MP for Częstochowa who is known for his colourful parliamentary statements on matters such as the fight against ASF.

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 41 B- POLITICAL CLOUT

Ardanowski has been a member of PiS since 2001 and has good relations with the PM. His position in the ruling party is weaker than that of his predecessor, who was a member of the „Order of Porozumienie Centrum” (PC was Kaczyński’s first party) and the head of the PiS structures in Podlasie. The current MinAgr led the party in the Toruń-Włocławek district but lost the position to former deputy MinEd, Marzanna Drab, two years ago. He is associated with Radio Maryja circles, although he does not have as good relations with its representatives as Jurgiel. The personnel changes he introduced were criticised by them. It seems, however, that the MinAgr can afford less popular decisions. He was the author of an amendment to the Act limiting the sale of agricultural land, which allowed churches to purchase agricultural land.

C+ PUBLIC PERCEPTION

Among the 23 politicians measured in the CBOS polls on public trust, Ardanowski is unknown to the largest number of people - as many as 64 per cent of respondents. Among those who recognise him, more than half trust him. Twenty-five per cent of people who live in the countryside has confidence in the minister, as do 51 per cent of farmers. As for politics, he sometimes makes less than tactful statements: he advised growers to plant fewer apple trees, criticised hunters, and advised farmers who could not protect their herds from ASF to try a different job. Within the industry, he is considered a man who knows a lot about agriculture.

OUTLOOK

If there is no unforeseen disaster in agriculture, the MinAgr will probably last until the end of the parliamentary term. Ardanowski does not have a strong political position, but it is enough to conduct a fairly independent policy. Authenticity and experience in agriculture mean he has the confidence of rural voters. Several tests await him in the coming year, including increases in electricity prices, which may additionally hit farmers as users of fertilisers whose production is energy-intensive. The minister will also have to face the growing demand for rural labour and dissatisfaction due to the lack of increases in EU subsidies.

AUTHOR

Ryszard Łuczyn, Political Affairs Analyst Michał A. Zieliński, Business AnalystB

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 42 Witold Bańka Minister of Sport and Tourism

Minister of sport, but not tourism Witold Bańka is appreciated for promoting universal sport programmes, but criticised for personnel decisions and central management.

B policy and governance B– GENERAL RATING C+ political clout C+ public perception

B POLICY AND GOVERNANCE

Witold Bańka has ended almost all the programmes introduced by the PO-PSL government. He has focused instead on the development of universal sport, while centralising management at the expense of local authorities and sports associations. “De-communising” the latter, which was a priority last year, has lost its urgency. The MinSpor has a problem with the second area of his department’s responsibility - tourism. Following the departure of one of the deputy ministers, the tourism arm has succumbed to chaos. One of the main complaints against the minister of sport is related to his personnel policy - he is accused of promoting friends.

Funding for universal sport. Bańka is criticised for the abolition of the „Orlik” pitch building programme, but his new ideas are very popular. This is the case, for example, with the „Open Zones of Activity” (mainly open-air gyms), of which 1,500 are expected to be created throughout Poland this year. This is a smaller scale programme than the „Orlik” scheme, but it is much cheaper. The „Club” programme, which is managed directly from the ministry, allows small and medium sports clubs to obtain funding and also enjoys considerable popularity. However, due to the under-developed project selection criteria, it mainly benefits relatively well-off soccer academies.

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 43 Athletics given priority among professional sports. The minister is criticised for favo- uring this sport, the more so because his own sporting career was associated with it. Po- les’ successes at international competitions, however, are an argument in favour of supporting athletics, which weakens the voices criticising Bańka’s approach. It was thanks to the MinSpor’s actions that Orlen has significantly increased its support for the biggest athletics stars. Individual support programmes for athletes and trainers are popular, too. An example is „team100” - a programme of independent funding for athletes aged 18 to 23 in Olympic disciplines.

Small increase in funds for sport. MinSpor has managed to win a little more money for sports in the draft budget for 2019. Last year, the ministry had about PLN 1.29 billion at its disposal, while next year it can count on PLN 1.31 billion. Funds for universal sport - about PLN 590 million - will not change but there will be more money for professional sport (about PLN 720 million as against about PLN 700 million last year). As in previous years, most money for sports comes from a fund for the development of physical culture (about PLN 933.5 million), financed from levies on gambling.

No deputy minister for tourism. In March this year, the undersecretary of state for tourism, Dariusz Rogowski, was dismissed by PM Mateusz Morawiecki as part of the reduction of the number of deputy ministers. Since then, tourism has been subject to Bańka directly. From the start, the minister has had problems with filling the post of his deputy. Rogowski was the third person to hold the job since Bańka became MinSpor. The personnel situation in the Polish Tourist Organisation has stabilized, though. Since September 2017, it has been headed by Robert Andrzejczyk (the fourth person in this post since Bań- ka took office).

Controversial personnel decisions. Bańka changed a large proportion of the department’s leadership when he took over the ministry. In many cases, however, he employed people with whom he was personally connected. An example is deputy minister Jan Widera, who trained Bańka when he was still an active athlete. Widera is respected as a trainer, but his managerial skills are questioned in the sector. The ministerial staff policy is also influenced by the second deputy minister - Jarosław Stawiarski, a long-time PiS MP, considered as a grey eminence at the ministry due to his party experience. Our information indicates that he favours employees from his hometown of Kraśnik. Stawiarski will probably leave the ministry soon because he is to become the marshal of the Lublin voivodship.

Fight against doping to pave the way for prominent position. The greatest achievement in this area so far has been the creation of the Polish Anti-Doping Agency (POLADA), which replaced the committee on combating doping in sport. POLADA has much greater competences than its predecessor, including in the area of investigative activities. Acti- vity in the fight against doping is connected with Bańka’s future professional plans - he is seeking the position of chair of the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA). The elections will take place at the world anti-doping conference planned for November 2019, which will be held in Katowice. Bańka will run against the current vice-president of the agency, Norway’s Linda Helleland.

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 44 C+ POLITICAL CLOUT

Even when Beata Szydło was PM, Bańka - her protégé - had minimal influence on the government’s policy. His position in Mateusz Morawiecki’s government is even smaller. Bańka became a member of PiS only after taking office and does not perform any important function in the party. Taking up the portfolio of the minister of sport was a political debut for him - after finishing his sporting career in athletics he worked in public relations. The MinSpor has, however, developed good relations with heads of state-owned companies, which allows him to raise additional funds for the ministry’s programmes.

C+ PUBLIC PERCEPTION

Bańka remains one of the least recognisable ministers in the PiS government; he does not figure in the CBOS ranking. His presence in the traditional media increased slightly during the winter Olympic Games in Pyongyang and on the occasion of the successes of Polish athletics at the indoor World Championships in Birmingham and the European Championships in Berlin. He is not popular in the sector, but is considered to be an effective PR expert; his contacts in state-owned companies are also appreciated. The minister is present in social media, but his Facebook account (7,500 likes) and Twitter (15,500) are not among the most popular for Polish politicians.

OUTLOOK

It is possible that Witold Bańka will not keep his position until the end of the parliamentary term. His position as a supporter of the marginalised Beata Szydło is very weak. The MinSpor is, however, an effective PR expert, and his public sport promotion programmes have a good press. He is also helped by good relations with state-owned companies and the successes of Polish sportspeople, especially the athletes. If Bańka keeps his job, he will not carry out revolutionary changes in the last year of his term, but will most probably focus on building his position in the context of the election of the chair of the Interna- tional Anti-Doping Agency.

AUTHOR

Paweł Wiejski European Affairs Analyst B

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 45 Mariusz Kamiński Minister – Member of the Council of Ministers, Special Services Coordinator

Grey eminence fading away The coordinator of special services is not the influential PiS politician he once was. He has failed to combine the security services and to create a ministry of state protection.

B- policy and governance B– GENERAL RATING B+ political clout C public perception

B- POLICY AND GOVERNANCE

Mariusz Kamiński has been responsible for the special services since PiS came to power. He exercises ongoing supervision on behalf of the PM over the Intelligence Agency, the Internal Security Agency (ABW) and the Central Anti-corruption Bureau (CBA), and to some extent also the Military Counterintelligence Service. Kamiński was the initiator, creator and first head of the CBA in 2006-2009. He has been associated with Jarosław Kaczyński since the early 1990s and has been a member of PiS since 2002. He is also considered an influential politician outside the world of special services, but his political position is gradually weakening.

Expanded influence in the services at the expense of MinDef. Kamiński benefited from the dismissal of Antoni Macierewicz as MinDef in January 2018. After the latter’s departure, Maciej Materka - civilian special services officer (with UOP, ABW and CBA), considered Kamiński’s man, was appointed to the position of head of the Military Coun- terintelligence Service. Materka was the director of the security department at MinInt in 2016-2018 and knows Mariusz Blaszczak (his appointment was not opposed by MinDef). Currently, all services, except for military intelligence, are staffed by people designated by the minister-coordinator.

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 46 No report on state security issued. 2018 is the first year of PiS government when such a document has not been published. The only public summary of 2017 was the statement by Kamiński’s spokesperson Stanisław Żaryn, in which he focused on economic crime. Ear- lier reports gave data on the activities of the ABW, such as the number of spies detained. The information made public meanwhile shows that the greatest achievement of the ABW over the past year was to detain a MinEner official who allegedly spied for Russia (March 2018). In May, the ABW also detained a Russian citizen on charges of „conducting hybrid actions against Poland.”

Proposed reforms not carried out. The minister-coordinator did not present a law on the merger of the ABW and AW into a newly-created National Security Agency. The most recent discussion of a counter-intelligence/intelligence merger appeared in an interview in June 2017. Kamiński also gave up on the creation of a separate Ministry of State Pro- tection, similar to the US Department of Homeland Security. Both ideas were promoted by PiS in the 2015 electoral campaign but were postponed year after year. The minister has also failed to propose a law on special powers of the minister competent for national security, which was to accompany the creation of a new ministry.

Boasts of fighting VAT evasion.The spokesperson for the coordinator publicises the arrests of organisers of the so-called VAT carousels and people involved in other tax evasion schemes. Information about investigations, charges and detentions is issued several times a week. According to data from Żaryn, in 2017 the services reporting to Kamiński dealt with economic crimes which cost the state treasury PLN 6.6 billion (data for 2018 is not available). These cases accounted for more than half of the 342 investigations initiated by the Agency during that period. The ABW often participates in police counter-ter- rorist actions and shows them in the media. This supports the government’s narrative of an uncompromising fight against tax fraud.

Participation of the ABW in politicised investigations. The agency is involved in a campaign of discrediting the activities of the previous supervisors of the services, Krzysztof Bondaryk and Paweł Wojtunik - politicians from the PO-PSL coalition government and local government officials from the current opposition. Justified suspicions of criminal activity by officials are mixed with personal attacks and insinuations made by close -as sociates of the minister-coordinator. Recently, at the request of the prosecutor’s office, the Agency’s officers delivered letters accusing a TVN camera operator of propagating fascism (later the US ambassador complained about this). Human rights organisations criticise the ABW for expelling Ludmiła Kozłowska of the Open Dialogue Foundation from Poland.

Involved on the fringes of the KNF scandal. Mariusz Kamiński had to explain the fact that his son is an adviser to the Polish Executive Director of the World Bank. Kacper Kamiński got this job on the recommendation of the NBP head, and Mariusz Kamiński’s ex-wife, also an NBP employee, had allegedly sought the job for their son. The issue came to light after the publication of recordings indicating the possibility of corruption in the Financial Supervisory Authority - the media then began to look for people who had ob- tained positions on the recommendation of the NBP president. Although Kamiński gave assurances that he had not sought the job for his son, he was already connected with the scandal in public perception. The CBA’s slow response in this matter also raises doubts - officers of the service appeared in the office of the KNF head only after Marek Chrzanow- ski (who was ordered back from Singapore by the PM) had entered the room.

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 47 B+ POLITICAL CLOUT

Mariusz Kamiński is the deputy leader of PiS and the head of the party in the Warsaw district and the Warsaw suburbs. Public declarations show that he enjoys the full trust of the PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński. His position is not helped by media accusations of nepotism and suspicion of problems of alcohol abuse. Kamiński is associated with the dissemination of recordings of conversations between politicians and business people made by waiters in Warsaw restaurants. All this means that, although Kamiński’s position in the government seems to be safe, it is difficult for the PM to trust him fully. After -Ma cierewicz’s departure from MinDef, Kamiński lost his rival for control over the services, but the lack of their consolidation confirms the thesis about the weakening influence of the coordinator.

C PUBLIC PERCEPTION

Mariusz Kamiński practically never appears in the media or at conferences; he rarely speaks during parliamentary sessions. Communications regarding the activities of the services and political polemics are conducted by his deputy Maciej Wąsik and spokesman Stanisław Żaryn, who often does not answer journalists’ questions. Despite the lack of personal activity in the media, Kamiński has a large group of dedicated supporters on the right-wing of PiS and other right-wing parties. These are active on the Internet, so they defend the minister every time he is criticised; they also attack his enemies. Kamiński’s name is not included in the polls of trust in politicians.

OUTLOOK

The greatest short-term risk for the minister-coordinator is the KNF scandal. This concerns primarily the CBA’s late entry into the suspect’s main office, accusations of nepotism and the possibility of unveiling political and financial links that threaten the stability of the government. For the time being, however, Kamiński is still one of Kaczyński’s most trusted people and is responsible for controlling the most sensitive information. In the pre-election atmosphere, he is unlikely to attempt a reform of the services again to create a new super-ministry, but he is unlikely to leave before the end of the parliamentary term.

AUTHOR

Marek Świerczyński Senior Analyst for Security AffairsB

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 48 Henryk Kowalczyk Minister of Environment

Improved climate around the environment Henryk Kowalczyk avoids conflicts in the government and is more effective in improving the environment than his predecessor.

B policy and governance B- GENERAL RATING C+ political clout B- public perception

B POLICY AND GOVERNANCE

Henryk Kowalczyk took over as MinEnv in January 2018. Previously, he was the head of the MinCou standing committee (2015-2018) and acting MinTrea (2016). He replaced Jan Szyszko, who was criticised by the sector and media. He was supposed to bring a thaw in the government’s relations with environmentalists and improve the ministry’s image. The deputy MinEnv’s Mariusz Orion Jędrysek and Sławomir Mazurek kept their jobs. In February, they were joined by Małgorzata Golińska, who became the main nature con- servationist. In March, Paweł Sałek was dismissed as secretary of state and government plenipotentiary for climate policy, and Michał Kurtyka joined the ministry ‚s management in June. Kowalczyk does not rule MinEnv alone - his deputies have a strong position and a lot of power in the areas they deal with.

Minister responsible for clean air. According to the World Health Organisation, 36 of the 50 most polluted cities in the EU are in Poland. For this reason, one of the priorities of MinEnv is the fight against smog. Since September, the ministry has been implementing the government programme „Clean Air”, under which households can apply for co-financing costs of heating or changing the method of heating a building (from 30 to 90 per

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 49 cent). So far, 12,500 applications have been submitted. The ministry has also expanded the national air quality monitoring network. Currently, 83 measuring devices are in ope- ration: MinEnv announced that it will order a further 86 units this year.

Ended the war over the Białowieża Forest. One of Kowalczyk’s first tasks was to improve relations with EurCom and ecologists, which suffered when his predecessor Jan Szyszko allowed tree felling in the Białowieża Forest. The new MinEnv has dismissed the head of the State Forests Konrad Tomaszewski, accusing him of failing to hold talks with Brus- sels, and failing to order a stop to the felling after the April judgment of the CJEU. He was also effective in his efforts to ensure that the Commission did not apply to the CJEU to impose fines on Poland. In addition, a team was set up in MinEnv to develop ways to protect the Białowieża Forest. It includes experts in nature protection and forestry, scientists and foreign specialists. The effects of the team’s activities are as yet unknown.

Created a new environmental strategy. In July MinEnv published the long-awaited project „Ecological Policy of the State 2030”. The ministry diagnoses the current situation forecasts socio-economic trends and determines the actions that the state must take. In the document MinEnv particularly emphasised the role of forests in absorbing CO2 emissions and the concept of Forest Charcoal farms created by Szyszko. Some experts complain that Kowalczyk’s project did not include energy from wind and sun as tools to improve air quality (instead, he lists, among others, geothermal energy and biogas plants). The strategy is to be adopted by the government in early 2019.

Responsible for COP24. This year, Kowalczyk’s most important task was to organise the climate summit in Katowice. In order for the enterprise to succeed, in July, MinEnv increased government expenditure on the organisation of COP24 by PLN 92.4 million, to PLN 221 million. Kowalczyk divided the organisation of the summit between his units - the office for the organisation of the COP24 conference, which dealt with organisational and logistic matters, and the office of the conference of parties’ presidency, which was responsible for substantive issues. Deputy MinEnv Sławomir Mazurek headed the Po- lish delegation to the conference. The minister has, in a way, already notched up the first failure associated with the organisation of the summit - the meeting will not be attended by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, US President Donald Trump or French President Emmanuel Macron.

Hit the grey waste zone. This year, MinEnv had to face the problem of frequent fires on landfills - by the end of May, there had been 67 of them (there were 27 in the whole of 2017). They mainly resulted from illegal import and storage of waste. To limit this, the ministry has prepared major changes to the Waste Act. The fire protection requirements were tightened, an obligation was created for waste management companies to pay financial guarantees and the time during which waste could be stored was shortened from three years to one. In July, MinEnv also prepared amendments to the Act on the Inspec- tion of Environmental Protection. It can now inspect dumps without any warning.

C+ POLITICAL CLOUT

Kowalczyk has been a member of PiS since 2005. He is a member of the party’s political committee, but he is not one of Jarosław Kaczyński’s closest associates. He MinEnv worked closely with Beata Szydło, so when the then PM resigned, his political position dropped. He lost the position of the head of the permanent committee and took a ministerial

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 50 portfolio without enthusiasm. Within the party, he is considered a conciliatory figure because he tries to avoid conflicts with other politicians. In disputes between ministries, he often played the role of a mediator. However, he was involved in a few conflicts with PM Mateusz Morawiecki - the two diagreed over the future of OFE, amongst other things.

PUBLIC PERCEPTION B- CBOS does not include Henryk Kowalczyk in its polling. The MinEnv does not appear in the media very often; he also has no Twitter account. He speaks mainly about topics related to his activities as MinEnv; he is, however, less active than, for instance, Piotr Woźny, the PM’s plenipotentiary for the „Clean Air” programme. After Kowalczyk took over the MinEnv portfolio, the ministry ceased to be criticised in the media and the sector. The latter considers him to be a much better minister than Jan Szyszko.

OUTLOOK

Kowalczyk will remain in office to the end of the parliamentary term but he will not play a significant role in either the government or the party. His position will largely depend on the effects of the fight against smog, as well as the overall assessment of the ongoing COP24, for which Kowalczyk is directly responsible.

AUTHOR

Dominik Brodacki Energy Analyst B

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 51 Zbigniew Ziobro Minister of Justice

The face of bad changes in the courts Ziobro gained broad powers in both the judiciary and the prosecutor’s office. This did not translate into improved work of the courts or the rule of law.

C+ policy and governance B- GENERAL RATING B political clout B public perception

C+ POLICY AND GOVERNANCE

Zbigniew Ziobro is the face of changes introduced in the judiciary, and according to the vast majority of observers both domestic and foreign, the changes are regarded as the violation of the rule of law and an attempt to limit judicial independence. The image of MinJus is also harmed by the lack of success in the prosecutor’s office, which undermines his position even in the government. Ziobro is only saved by his strict approach to criminals which the citizens appreciate. However, given the fact that MinJus contributed to the deterioration of the relations with Israel, the US and the EU, the past year cannot be considered a success.

Strengthening the formal influence on the judiciary.In April, the Sejm selected new judges to join the National Council of the Judiciary (KRS). Most of them were associated with Ziobro. People linked with the minister have also been admitted to the newly established disciplinary chamber of the Supreme Court (SN). Its appointment closes the disciplinary proceedings system for judges, which is now under the full control of MinJus. Ziobro also has an impact on filling the positions of court heads and their deputies - until February he was able to do it on his own, now he needs the consent of the KRS, which is favourable to him.

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 52 Judges’ rebellion continues. The vast majority of judges are opposed to the changes in the judiciary introduced by PiS. Judges have adopted critical resolutions in this matter almost unanimously – among others, the Supreme Court, as well as the judges of the ap- pellate court in Kraków, or the regional court in Warsaw have done so. The consolidation of the judiciary against Ziobro is enhanced by the actions of disciplinary representatives, who called the judges critical of the authorities for hearings (including judges Igor Tuleya and Bartłomiej Przymusiński). The results of questionnaires carried out by the Judges’ Cooperation Forum or Rzeczpospolita also show the judges ‚attitude. They indicate that over 90 per cent of the respondents assess the activities of the new KRS poorly and believe that the changes introduced by PiS may negatively affect their independence.

Unrealised promises in the judiciary. Changes in the courts were justified by the desire to improve their efficiency - in particular, to reduce the length of proceedings. Meanwhile, the courts are slowing - the time a case takes has increased from an average of 4.7 months in 2016 to 5.5 months in 2017. This has partly been caused by the chaos after the takeover of the courts by Ziobro’s appointees, often having had no experience in managing them. The problem with the length of cases’ examination may be solved by the announced amendments to the civil and criminal procedures. However, the amendments to the Code of Civil Procedure are at an early stage of legislative work and the amendments to the penal code have not even been presented yet.

Lack of political successes in the prosecutor’s office.Ziobro combines the function of MinJus with managing the prosecutor’s office. During his rule, the regulations were changed so that it would be possible to use the so-called fruit of the poisoned tree in the courts – evidence acquired illegally by the services and the prosecutor’s office. This was expected to make it easier to deal with the scandals that allegedly took place during previous governments. Meanwhile, three years of PiS’s rule will soon pass, and the only indictment brought by the prosecutor’s office concerned PO’s Secretary General Stanisław Gawłow- ski. He was, however, released from detention shortly after paying bail. According to the media, PiS politicians are increasingly blaming Ziobro for the lack of success in this area.

Jaki’s wasted chance. The most important and the most visible Ziobro’s deputy is Patryk Jaki. The deputy MinJus headed the verification committee for restitution in Warsaw, which was expected to settle the scandal related to the capital’s land and to remove Han- na Gronkiewicz-Waltz. However, the results of the committee’s work did not bring a spectacular success. Although it issues decisions on the return of unduly granted properties, they can be appealed in court, which will probably be used by the current owners of these properties. Jaki was also Zjednoczona Prawica’s candidate for the mayor of Warsaw - however, he lost the election in the first round, not even gaining 30 per cent of the votes. Instead of strengthening Ziobro, the deputy minister weakened him.

Deterioration of Poland’s image. It was at MinJus that the amendment to the law on the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN) was created, which caused a diplomatic conflict with the US and Israel. Eventually, the government changed the controversial regulations, but it was exposed to the accusation of acting under the influence of other countries. MinJus is also responsible for the conflict with the EurCom over the rule of law. The author of the challenged laws is Andrzej Duda, but there is no doubt that the direction of changes has been developed by Ziobro. In addition, the recent MinJus application to ConTrib in the matter of examining the compliance of the provisions of the EU treaty with the Polish constitution triggered a discussion on the subject of Polexit.

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 53 B POLITICAL CLOUT

Zbigniew Ziobro remains one of the strongest ministers. He is the leader of Solidarna Pol- ska - PiS’s coalition partner, which won over 20 seats in voivodeship assemblies in the last local government election. After Morawiecki’s promotion to prime minister, with whom Ziobro is in conflict, MinJus formed a tactical alliance with Andrzej Duda. Ziobro also -fi ghts for posts in the state-controlled companies for his people. Managers associated with Ziobro work for companies such as PZU and Pekao. However, due to the dispute with the prime minister, there are signs that Ziobro’s influence on the management boards of the likes of Orlen and Tauron was waning. A new acting CEO of Alior, Krzysztof Bachta, also associated with MinJus, is waiting for the KNF’s decision. His fate may be the first test of Ziobro’s position after the local government election.

B PUBLIC PERCEPTION

Ziobro ranks second in the government in the ranking of trust in politicians (following Morawiecki) – 47 per cent of respondents trust him. This is probably due to his strict approach to punishing criminals, which is well received by citizens. MinJus can also count on the support of TVP and the Karnowski brothers media. However, Andrzej Duda (66 per cent) and Paweł Kukiz (50 per cent) are ahead of him in the rankings. A large number of Poles, however, do not trust MinJus (34 per cent). Ziobro does not enjoy a good reputation in the legal community as well.

OUTLOOK

If Zbigniew Ziobro’s future depended solely on Mateusz Morawiecki, he would not have been in the cabinet for a long time. However, MinJus still enjoys the support of Jarosław Kaczyński, without whose approval there can be no major changes in the composition of the CouMin. Ziobro is also a political counterweight to Morawiecki – Kaczyński is not too eager to strengthen any either of them too much. Removing Ziobro from the coalition would also create the risk of another division on the right and would reduce the chances of this formation to win the parliamentary election again.

AUTHOR

Maciej Czapluk Legal Affairs Analyst B

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 54 Andrzej Adamczyk Minister of Infrastructure

Minister with a shrinking portfolio The minister did not cope with some projects, which is why he has lost responsibility for construction and for building the CPK.

C+ policy and governance C+ GENERAL RATING C political clout C public perception

C+ POLICY AND GOVERNANCE

Andrzej Adamczyk did not cope with construction - he did not carry out the changes in building law necessary for the implementation of the Housing+ programme, and after the January reconstruction, he lost responsibility for this area. The supervision over the programme was taken over by MinDev, which then had to adopt a special act and reorganise the National Property Resource. Adamczyk also lost influence on the construction of the Cen- tral Communication Port, mainly due to the fact that he was pushing for PKP PLK’s share in railway investments. Slimming down the ministry weakened the position of the minister, but he does better with the implementation of other tasks. Poczta Polska generated a profit in 2017, and increases for postal workers removed the threat of a strike. The construction of roads and railways is moving forward, but the problem is signing new contracts.

Delays on roads and railways. The construction of ongoing road and railway investments has so far seen only slight delays - in 2018, 370 km will be opened instead of the 440 km of fast roads planned. However, the scale of arrears is gradually increasing, and deadlines for the A1 motorways around Częstochowa and the S7 road near Kielce and reconstruction of the Kraków railway junction are at risk. Currently, however, there is no risk of losing EU

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 55 funds for these projects. Adamczyk’s success has been the signing of contracts for several roads, which he personally sought, especially the northern bypass of Kraków (S52). The MinInfra comes from Małopolska, where he is appreciated for effective lobbying for local investments.

Astaldi bankruptcy under control. At the beginning of October, the Italian contractor filed an application for protection against creditors, which was the most serious crisis that Adamczyk had to deal with this year. Astaldi left over PLN 220 million of debt to Polish road and rail subcontractors. The ministry mastered the crisis speedily by paying subcontractors’ outstanding debts from national funds. The challenge is to conduct re-tendering for projects (such as the Wrocław-Poznań railway line and a part of the Zakopianka) and avoiding long-term delays.

No remedy for problems in tenders. Adamczyk has a problem with handling the systemic problem of the increase in infrastructure construction costs. Rising prices mean that contractors are increasingly withdrawing their offers or valuing jobs much above the cost estimate foreseen by the state. For this reason, important investments are threatened, including the completion of the A1 motorway or the reconstruction of the coal-carrying railway. Adamczyk is passive on this issues and is not meeting the contractors’ expecta- tions, such as more flexible prices. The only initiative in this respect, namely the establishment of a trust fund, came out of MinJus and was heavily criticised in the industry.

Ambitious investment programmes. Adamczyk tries to cover up problems with signing contracts by announcements on new programmes. He secured the adoption of the law on the local-authority Roads Fund, which from 2019 will co-finance small local investments that have been deprived of systematic support so far. The fund is to have PLN 36 billion at its disposal over the next 10 years. The money is to come from several institutions - but it is not known how it will work in practice. Adamczyk also announced a programme to rebuild local rail connections (Railways+), which is to absorb PLN 6-7 billion in 2019-2023 (it was announced after the presentation of budget assumptions for 2019). Both programs are needed and have been well received by the market, but will only start next year.

Complications with e-toll. Adamczyk was the initiator of the nationalisation of the e-toll and its transfer to the Main Road Transport Inspectorate (GITD) which had no experience in such projects. In the end, it was possible to avoid problems when changing the supervision of the system, but only because GITD commissioned the system to the Insti- tute of Communications. This, in turn, handed it over to Kapsch, the current operator. The costs of maintaining the system have remained practically unchanged (they amount to approx. PLN 280 million annually), but the ministry has missed the chance to expand and modernise the system, which would have brought additional revenue and facilitated traffic management.

CPK outside the minister’s control. This flagship investment is supervised by the government’s plenipotentiary, Mikołaj Wild. Formally, he is subordinate to Adamczyk, but in practice, Wild is directly responsible to the PM. The plenipotentiary and the minister ar- gued mainly over the supervision of railway investments within the CPK - Adamczyk did not want to give it up, but eventually, he lost the dispute. In the industry, it is said that the surrendering of control of CPK was the price paid for the MinInfra keeping his job in the January reconstruction of the government. Initial activities related to the construction of the CPK are running about six months behind the original plan.

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 56 C POLITICAL CLOUT

The MinInfra has a strong position in his local voivodship (the head of his political cabinet, Łukasz Smółka, became deputy Marshal), but has limited influence on national policy. Adamczyk is a member of PiS, but he does not play an important role in the party. His position is strengthened by his loyalty to Jarosław Kaczyński, whom he has accompanied politically since their time in Porozumienie Centrum, but he has never been among the party leaders. MinInf is associated with the former PM Szydło - they are MPs from neighbouring districts in Małopolska. Since Mateusz Morawiecki took up his position, Adamczyk is trying to get closer to the current PM with moderate success.

C PUBLIC PERCEPTION

Adamczyk is a little-known minister, which is uncommon in the case of MinInfras. He is not included in CBOS surveys. The MinInfra builds his position above all by appearing at road openings and signing new contracts. He is much less active in the media (including social media) and participates in a smaller number of events than Mikołaj Wild or representatives of the railway companies which are subordinate to him. Adamczyk’s management and investment management skills are not highly-rated in the industry, and the companies from the PKP group have a large degree of autonomy.

OUTLOOK

Adamczyk’s position has never been strong, and during the government’s term of office, he has gradually lost influence in different areas. He will probably not leave before the end of his term, but without Szydło supporting him, he will be hard pressed to maintain his post after the election. Currently, he is practically responsible only for the construction of roads and railways and the supervision of Poczta Polska. The biggest problem of MinInfra in the last year of the government will be growing problems with signing new contracts - Adamczyk will have to improve dialogue with contractors to avoid further delays. Media attention, however, will focus on CPK, with which Adamczyk is not associated.

AUTHOR

Dominik Sipiński Transport and Infrastructure AnalystC

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 57 Piotr Gliński Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Culture and National Heritage

Supervisor of Polish culture Piotr Gliński runs cultural policy in accordance with the PiS party line. He has managed to tone down the conflict with artistic milieu.

C+ policy and governance C+ GENERAL RATING B- political clout C+ public perception

C+ POLICY AND GOVERNANCE

Piotr Gliński consistently implements the PiS policy in the field of culture and historical policy. He tries to create new, conservative elites and promotes a vision of patriotism in line with that of the ruling party. After the turbulent beginning to his period of office, calm has come - after taking over many important cultural institutions, the ministry focuses on transforming them and creating their own ones. MinCult’s relationship with the artistic milieu remains cool.

Gliński absent from ministry. According to our sources, the MinCult spends most of his time in PMChan. Current issues are mainly dealt with by deputy ministers. Paweł Lewan- dowski, who deals with film, has a relatively strong position. Artistic circles have a low opinion of Wanda Zwinogrodzka, responsible for the replacement of theatre directors in Kraków and Wrocław, which resulted in the collapse of both houses. The protection of monuments is the responsibility of Magdalena Gawin, while Jarosław Sellin, previously responsible for film, is the government’s plenipotentiary for celebrating the independence centenary.

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 58 Still no media ”de-concentration”. The fight against the consolidated media market is a recurring theme for the governing party. According to Gliński, „the bill is ready, it’s a matter of political timing”. As part of the National Culture Conference (OKK) organised on the MinCult’s initiative, a draft to regulate the „status of the artist” was sent for consultation, regulating issues of health insurance and social insurance for creatives. On the positive side for the ministry, there is the project of introducing tax breaks for producers of computer games based on Polish or European cultural heritage. Positive effects may be achieved by the law adopted by the government on financial support for films created in Poland.

Delays over museums. The ministry supports the creation of new museums reflecting the PiS ideology, but there are delays. The Museum of Polish History, which was to be opened in 2018, will be built for 2020 at the earliest. The Museum of “Accursed Soldiers” in Ostrołęka or the Museum of John Paul II and Cardinal-Primate Wyszyński in Wilanów have also been afflicted by construction delays. MinCult has also allocated PLN 70 million to other papal museums co-created with Father Tadeusz Rydzyk’s Lux Veritatis Founda- tion. Work has begun on a Warsaw Ghetto Museum, which is to set out a narrative closer to that of the government than the POLIN museum presents. There is conflict surroun- ding the Museum of World War II in Gdańsk. In July, a case was brought to restore this exhibition to its state before the changes introduced by the new management.

Calm before theatrical storm. MinCult has toned down the conflict with the theatrical milieu, which does not mean a better relationship. Despite the appeals of artists and critics, Gliński did not extend the contract of the director of the Theatre Institute, Dorota Buchwald, in July. Competition for the position (in which Buchwald will be a candidate) is already underway. If a person who is not acceptable to the artistic circles wins, the dispute will flare up again. An even bigger conflict would be caused by MinCult starting work on a law being prepared under OKK to allow it to block the extension of theatre directors’ contracts.

Film under control. The director of the Polish Film Institute, Radosław Śmigulski, appointed by Gliński, has dismissed a large share of the employees and also has a behind-the- -scenes influence on experts who make decisions on the co-financing of films. In 2018, the Polish Film Institute gave money to the producer of the film „Smolensk” for his piece on the Polish Legions, and the Institute’s experts who criticised it were sacked. The „Holly- wood blockbusters” about Polish history promised in the election campaign have yet to be produced - work on this is coordinated by the Polish National Foundation (PFN).

Improvement in institutes. Normalisation has come after a period of chaos and replacement of personnel in the MinCult’s subordinate institutes. The Book Institute initially promoted mainly right-wing authors (Rafał Ziemkiewicz and Tomasz Terlikowski), passing over writers who oppose the government. This year’s catalogue promoting Polish literature also included authors representing other views, such as Dorota Masłowska and Olga Tokarczuk. MinCult has decided to co-manage many cultural institutions, including Warsaw’s Polish Theatre and Musical Theatre in Łódź, which allows influence over their artistic programmes.

Feeble „Independence” programme. Almost PLN 240 million was earmarked for the celebration of Polish independence, including more than PLN 80 million in 2018. There are many organised events, but they lack scale and any over-arching vision. This is partly Gliński’s fault as his subordinate, Sellin, was responsible for their organisation. The promotion of the centenary abroad is also uncoordinated. It is mainly being done through the Adam Mickiewicz Institute; the PFN is also active in the area. The effectiveness of many of these activities, such as inviting boxing champion David Haye to Poland or the „Independence Cruise” by the ship Dar Młodzieży, is doubtful.

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 59 Chilly relations with the non-governmental sector. Gliński’s relations with the third sector are not improving. The National Institute of Freedom, supervised by MinCult, took over management of the Civic Initiatives Fund, which is key to the sector. The PLN 60 million distributed under the new rules went largely to small organisations outside the big cities. On October 29, it emerged that the new tranche of Norwegian funds for the third sector (EUR 30 million) will again be managed by the Stefan Batory Foundation, which is disliked by the government. This is a defeat for Gliński, who strongly opposed it.

B- POLITICAL CLOUT

After Mateusz Morawiecki became PM, Gliński moved up to second place among the deputy prime ministers. Beata Szydło is weaker than Gliński and will soon leave for EurParl, while Jarosław Gowin, head of the coalition partner Porozumienie is stronger. Gliński is a member of the PiS political committee, but he has no party base, and he owes his position only to good relations with Jarosław Kaczyński.

C+ PUBLIC PERCEPTION

Gliński is recognised by 64 per cent of Poles and trusted by 25 per cent of them. This is one of the lower ratings among the members of the government included in the polls. The deputy prime minister appears relatively frequently in the media, but his relations with artists remain tense - many of them blame him for the destruction of Polish culture. Gliń- ski is also regularly booed when appearing in concert halls or operas.

OUTLOOK

Gliński does not have to worry about his position in the government thanks to his good relations with the leader of PiS and his fidelity to the party’s assumptions in historical and cultural policy. Recently, he has managed to calm conflicts with the artistic circles but they do not trust him or his associates. An improvement of MinCult’s image among artists is somewhat unlikely, but limited cooperation is possible.

AUTHOR

Ryszard Łuczyn Political Affairs Analyst C

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 60 Marek Gróbarczyk Minister of Maritime Economy and Inland Navigation

Many promises, few results Marek Gróbarczyk’s sole success is the politcally-motivated renationalisation of the Gdańsk Shipyard. The most important investments are not being implemented.

C+ policy and governance C+ GENERAL RATING B political clout C+ public perception

C+ POLICY AND GOVERNANCE

Marek Gróbarczyk mainly implements politically-motivated projects that are questioned by the maritime industry. Meanwhile, the most important investments, in things such as inland navigation, are delayed. Over the last year, MinMar has been consolidating the oversight over the maritime industry and inland navigation, but for now, it has not co- nverted this into effective actions. The most politically important change in the maritime industry, renationalisation of the Gdańsk Shipyard, was conducted by the Agency for Industrial Development (ARP), not MinMar.

Digging of the Vistula Split ends with a post. Gróbarczyk announced the construction of the canal connecting the Baltic Sea with the Vistula Lagoon before PiS even came to power. The project is widely panned both because it makes little economic sense, as well as its potentially harmful effect on the environment. Three years have passed since Gróbarczyk became minister, and the investment has not begun. Ahead of the elections, MinMar (accompanied by Jarosław Kaczyński and the candidate for mayor of Elbląg) put a stake in the ground on the beach where the canal was to begin, but for now, there are not environmental clearances or construction permits. Despite Gróbarczyk’s pronoun-

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 61 cements, the construction will not begin in 2019. It is doubtful whether it can be started ahead of the Sejm election.

No ferries. Gróbarczyk announced support for the Polish shipyards and ferry operators by ordering the construction of new ferries to service connections with Sweden as part of the „Batory” programme. While it is true that already in 2017, a keel for the construction of a ferry for the state operator Polish Baltic Shipping was laid, to this day there is no project and no secured financing. The preliminary construction plans are criticised by the industry as detached from market realities. The second state operator Polish Mariti- me Shipping has a ready plan to build four ferries but has much weaker backing within MinMar, which makes it difficult to attract capital. Gróbarczyk’s political achievement is the takeover of state shipyards in Szczecin, which may make it more difficult to invest, although for now, it did not bring any concrete changes.

Maritime Development Fund uncertain for now. The new state fund (MFR) is to be created on the foundation of Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego. MinCou is the approve the necessary legislation in Q1 2019. MFR is to finance the construction of ferries, support the development of Polish shipyards and R&D in the maritime economy. But so far Gróbar- czyk has not presented a draft of the legislation. Among the unknowns are the sources of funding, the budget and even the way the fund would function. The industry, especially domestic operators, desperately need these funds, but it is very unlikely that they will start flowing next year. MinMar has been working on launching MFR since H1 2017.

Investments in inland shipping being prepared. The revival of the Polish inland shipping, which today practically does not exist, is the most difficult, while also the most necessary task ahead of Gróbarczyk. The lack of spectacular advancements can be explained in the longer perspective as failures of the previous government, but MinMar was also slowed by an institutional conflict. MinMar did not take over the oversight over inland investments from MinEnv until January 2018. One of the most important investments, the construction of a second water stage on the Vistula river, is being prepared without delays, but will not be ready until 2025. The dredging of Odra is going relatively well and investment points are already being carried out. The entire river should be passable by 2020. Gróbarczyk is also promoting a PLN 12 billion plan to build retention reservoirs, which is to be formalised in 2019.

Ministry lost experts. There are two undersecretaries of state at MinMar: Grzegorz Wit- kowski and Anna Moskwa. Neither is an expert in maritime economy. Moskwa (responsible for inland shipping and international cooperation) has experience in gaining EU funds. Her knowledge of inland shipping does not equal that of MP Jerzy Materna, who is viewed positively by the industry. He was a deputy MinMar until March. Earlier, the ministry lost another expert deputy minister when Paweł Brzezicki became the admini- strative commissioner of Polish Maritime Shipping.

B POLITICAL CLOUT

MinMar is a member of the PiS political committee, where he represents very conservative circles associated with Radio Maryja. After the dismissal of Antoni Macierewicz, Gróbarczyk is the sole representative of this fraction in Mateusz Morawiecki’s cabinet. Because of his close association with Tadeusz Rydzyk and frequent appearances in his media outlets, Gróbarczyk has a relatively strong political position, especially conside-

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 62 ring the size of his ministry. His role increased after he took over the supervision of water management from MinEnv in January. Gróbarczyk’s initiatives rarely require cooperation with other ministries and the minister works well with MinInfra Andrzej Adamczyk on common investments (such as retention reservoirs, roads into ports). So far he has not had any problems gaining funds for his projects.

C+ PUBLIC PERCEPTION

Marek Gróbarczyk is not included in public opinion polls and is one of the least known ministers. He is recognisable locally, mainly in Szczecin, the Tri-City and Elbląg because of his support for a canal through the Vistula Split. Thanks to frequent appearances on Tadeusz Rydzyk’s media outlets, he is recognised by their target group. Most of the issues he deals with do not attract public attention. The ones that do get reported (rescue of shipyards, construction of ferries, the canal through the Vistula Split), are seen by the industry as unnecessary and badly managed. But Gróbarczyk is seen as one of the few specialists on the topic of maritime economy in PiS. Sector representatives value the fact that the party brought back MinMar.

OUTLOOK

Gróbarczyk should hold on to his job because he is an expert in his area and supported by the conservative fraction of PiS. Even the lack of real progress in the construction of the Vistula Split canal should not hurt him. His most important task for the last year of this term will be to unblock the investments of Polish ferry operators, the launch of the Ma- ritime Development Fund and the conclusion of the preparation stage of the most important inland shipping investments. If he manages to achieve this, the evaluation of his entire term will be positive. If, however, he focuses on the Vistula Split canal, which will most likely be blocked by EurCom anyway, then he will ignore the more important tasks and will fail as minister.

AUTHOR

Dominik Sipiński Transport and Infrastructure AnalystC

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 63 Beata Szydło Deputy Prime Minister

Accident-prone deputy PM Beata Szydło does not have specific tasks in the government and the media are increasingly attacking her for not doing anything.

C- policy and governance C+ GENERAL RATING B- political clout B public perception

C- POLICY AND GOVERNANCE

After stepping down as PM, Beata Szydło withdrew from the political limelight. Her activity in government is negligible, although the deputy PM travels a lot, especially in her own region. She recently admitted that she will probably run in the European elections next May - the numerous meetings with the residents of Małopolska may be useful to her in the Spring campaign. Szydło is still quite popular, but more and more people are criticising her. In recent weeks, the criticism focused mainly on motoring accidents and her absence at social protests.

Deputy PM with nothing to do. In December 2017 Beata Szydło became deputy PM in charge of social issues. She is the only member of the cabinet, apart from the PM, not to be assigned a ministry, nor is she allocated any duties. She only presides over meetings of the MinCou’s social committee, created especially for her. Its main task, according to Mateusz Morawiecki’s decree, is to „ensure the coordination of actions and efficient -de cision-making in social matters”. In practice, the committee mainly gives its opinion on government proposals but does not introduce significant changes. It consists of representatives of ten ministers, including MinFam, MinHea, MinJus and MinInt. The committee has met 15 times since January 2018.

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 64 Nothing achieved on social issues. The social committee coordinated by Szydło was to deal with projects such as the law on incomes for mothers who had at least four children, and a bill rewarding the birth of a second child soon after the first. So far, however, it has only given an opinion on the former because it was put forward not by the social committee, but by MinFam. The second bill is yet to be drafted. The committee also gave its opinion on a number of other regulations created in various ministries, including on support for the disabled and strategies for the elderly. Szydło also promised that the committee would create a strategy for a social and pro-family policy for the coming years by the end of the parliamentary term.

Absent during social protests. Despite theoretically being the first person who should react on social issues, the deputy PM did not get involved in resolving any conflicts. When disabled people protested in the Sejm for 40 days in April and May, Szydło did not even meet with them. Meanwhile, she took part in Dunajec rafting, something which was noted by the media. Given the deputy PM’s lack of interest in the problems of disabled people and their caregivers, the opposition submitted a motion of no confidence in Szydło in May but her party’s MPs voted it down. The deputy PM also failed to support the protesting LOT workers and police officers.

Itinerant merry-go-round. According to the data of the Government Information Centre made available to Gazeta Wyborcza, Szydło made about 130 official trips between Ja- nuary and October 2018. According to PMChan, some of them were associated with the activities of the committee (meetings included social welfare homes), but there were also numerous meetings with residents and scientific, patriotic and religious meetings. Gaze- ta Wyborcza discovered that almost half of the meetings held by the Deputy PM were in Małopolska, and most of the others were in the adjoining provinces. She endorsed many PiS representatives in Małopolska during the local election campaign, including those in Nowy Sącz, Chrzanów, Brzeszcze and Kraków (every one of her party’s candidates in these cities was defeated).

B- POLITICAL CLOUT

Szydło remains one of PiS’s six deputy leaders but, since resigning as PM, has been marginalised in the party. Her best relations are with the MinSpo Witold Bańka, while her former associate Andrzej Adamczyk has recently been closer to Mateusz Morawiecki, with whom Szydło is competing. A tactical alliance links the deputy PM with Zbigniew Ziobro, who, like Szydło, competes against the PM for influence. The Karnowski brothers’ media are still Szydło’s allies - Michał Karnowski recently used the wpolityce.pl website to urge the men in PiS to rally to the defence of „their lady prime minister”.

B PUBLIC PERCEPTION

Beata Szydło is recognised by 99 per cent of Poles, and almost half of them trust her (46 per cent). Six ministers, including Elżbieta Rafalska, Zbigniew Ziobro and Mariusz Błaszczak, do better than the deputy PM in the confidence ranking, taking into account the relationship between trust and distrust. Szydło is still popular thanks to numerous travels and her social media activity. The deputy PM also gives frequent interviews. But, in recent weeks there have been many articles in the media attacking Szydło over the lack of action on the social issues she was supposed to deal with. The deputy PM’s image is also

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 65 weakened by car accidents - during the last two years, Szydło has been involved in two, both were widely commented on in the media. In the case of the first of them, a trial is underway. On the occasion of the second, three weeks ago, it was revealed that the deputy PM was travelling with the level of security escort given the most important persons in the state. She may also be hurt by the scandal involving the head of the KNF, Marek Chrzanowski - the media point out that it was Szydło who nominated him.

OUTLOOK

Just one year ago, Beata Szydło was one of the most popular politicians in the country, but since she lost her job as PM, her position has declined. The deputy PM will probably be one of about twenty PiS MEPs – at which point her influence on domestic issues will decline even more. Some media mentioned Szydło as a presidential candidate if PiS refused to support Andrzej Duda. As her popularity decreases, however, the probability of her running shrinks. The nomination of Szydło as EU commissioner, something that was also discussed in party circles at one time, is even less likely - within the EU, the former PM is associated with the destruction of the Polish judiciary.

AUTHOR

Joanna Sawicka Political Affairs Analyst C

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 66 Krzysztof Tchórzewski Minister of Energy

Saved mining, sank power industry Rising energy prices could mean that the minister’s successes in reforming Polish mining industry are forgotten.

C+ policy and governance C+ GENERAL RATING B- political clout C+ public perception

C+ POLICY AND GOVERNANCE

Krzysztof Tchórzewski’s position in the government and state-controlled companies has weakened over the last year. The minister is in conflict with PM Mateusz Morawiecki, who took away his supervision over Orlen and Lotos in June. Tchórzewski’s managers oppose him increasingly boldly (Daniel Ozon in JSW) or are looking for other political patrons (Filip Grzegorczyk in Tauron). The management of the energy ministry also changed, with deputy ministers Michał Kurtyka and Andrzej Piotrowski departing - the first to MinEnv and the other to PGE System. They were replaced by Tomasz Dąbrowski, a competent official from MinEner, and Tadeusz Skobel, Tchórzewski’s former associate from Energetyka. Grzegorz Tobiszowski strengthened Tadeusz Skobel, a former collaborator of Tchórzewski from PKP Energetyka in his power in the ministry - apart from mining, he was given supervision over RES.

Energy prices are out of control. Over the last year, the price of electricity for supply in 2019 has increased by 60 per cent because coal-fired power plants, which generate 80 per cent of electricity in Poland, have to buy increasingly expensive fuel and CO2 allowances. Their price has gone up from EUR 6 to EUR 20. For now, electricity is more expensive in

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 67 the wholesale market, which mainly impacts the industry. But the increases are affecting more and more companies and local authorities. From January, the price increases will also be felt by households. Apart from a plan to introduce an obligation to sell 100 per cent of electricity via the exchange, Tchórzewski’s ministry has no ideas on how to limit the increase in energy prices. Instead, he promised compensation for expensive electricity and unsuccessfully tried to force EurCom to intervene in the CO2 market.

Fiasco of Ostrołęka C increasingly likely. The 1000-MW generating plant in Ostrołę- ka was to be the last coal-fired power plant built in Poland. Tchórzewski supported the investment from the very beginning, promising the inhabitants of Ostrołęka construction work and the miners a new market for coal. The implementation of the project is still uncertain. The PLN 6 billion plant cannot be financed - banks refused to lend, fearing the growing costs of producing coal-based energy, and the state-controlled companies are in a bad financial situation. Tchórzewski inaugurated the construction of the power plant just before the local government elections, but the contractor has not started work.

Mines in better condition, but market swamped by coal from Russia. Under Tchórzewski’s supervision, mining has ultimately emerged from the crisis, but coal production has been consistently falling - from January to the end of September, the mines produced a total of 47.3 million tons of coal, that is 1.5 million tons less than the previous year. Shortfalls on the market are filled by growing imports, mainly from the East. According to Eurostat, 9 million tons of Russian coal was imported by Poland between January and August - almost twice as much as in the same period of 2017. This undermines the foundation of the government’s energy policy, namely diversification of supplies and independence from energy from the East.

Capacity market and end of the war over RES. MinEner‚s successes in the last year include the completion of work on the capacity market law, which is to encourage investors to build new power plants. Tchórzewski’s ministry also adopted amendments to the law on renewable energy, which reduce the tax burden on wind farms, as well as amendments to the law on electric cars. In addition, MinEner has launched an ambitious gasification programme for the country to help fight smog. Under the pressure of intra-governmental pressure, it changed the regulation on fuel standards, the new version of which gives a better chance of eliminating the worst sorts of coal from the market and improving air quality.

Still no decision on nuclear power. Despite numerous announcements, MinEner has not decided to build a nuclear power plant or modified the Polish Nuclear Power Program- me. He has also failed to publish Poland’s energy policy until 2040: a strategic document to determine the development path of the national fuel mix. Work on the cogeneration support act has still not been finalised, which means that the support system for the heat and power plants will not be launched by the end of the year. From January 1, they will not have state support.

B- POLITICAL CLOUT

Tchórzewski sits on the PiS political committee, but his current position is exceptionally weak. In June 2018, Morawiecki took away his supervision over fuel companies because the minister wanted to use them to reactivate the nuclear project. In October, he had to give way to “Solidarność” to avoid demonstrations in Warsaw - trade unions forced him

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 68 to dismiss the CEO of PGE GiEK (the largest PGE subsidiary), Sławomir Zawada and to withdraw from the planned dismissal of JSW Chief Executive Daniel Ozon. In the same month, PiS candidates suffered defeats in local elections in Ostrołęka and Siedlce - Tchó- rzewski is the head of party structures in both towns. His son, Karol Tchórzewski, lost the election in Siedlce.

C+ PUBLIC PERCEPTION

CBOS does not poll on the popularity of MinEner. In a ranking of government members (SW Research poll for the rp.pl website, April 2018), Krzysztof Tchórzewski ranked as number 12 among 22 ministers - 0.8 per cent of respondents. PM Mateusz Morawiecki (13.8 per of votes) came out best, and Jerzy Kwieciński (0 per cent) worst.

OUTLOOK

The fate of Krzysztof Tchórzewski will depend largely on the scale of the electricity price increases in 2019, which will be decided in the middle of December by the head of URE. The higher the increase, the weaker the MinEner’s position will be and the easier it will be to dismiss him. But it will be harder to find a successor. PiS has no one who knows and understands the energy sector while having a sufficiently strong political position to manage the ministry’s work and take over supervision of the most important state-owned companies.

AUTHOR

Robert Tomaszewski Senior Energy Analyst PI Climate Author C

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 69 Jacek Czaputowicz Minister of Foreign Affairs

Minister with no influence on government policy The government’s foreign policy remains a hostage to domestic politics. Poland’s image has been affected by the conflict with Israel, and relations with Ukraine are in crisis.

C+ policy and governance C GENERAL RATING C- political clout C public perception

C+ POLICY AND GOVERNANCE

Jacek Czaputowicz took over the position of MinFor in January 2018. He got the job by chance – as he himself admitted publicly, he received the offer the day before being appointed. Mateusz Morawiecki had originally wanted Krzysztof Szczerski to be head of the department, but the two men failed to reach an agreement regarding conditions of employment. As an academic and official, Czaputowicz was intended to improve the image of Polish diplomacy, which suffered when Witold Waszczykowski was MinFor. He has not changed the government’s foreign policy, however - it is still mainly dependent on PiS’s political programme and the activities of other ministries.

Putting out fires started by others. The beginning of 2018 brought a crisis in Poland’s relations with Israel and then with the United States caused by an amendment of the Act on the Institu- te of National Remembrance (IPN) passed by the Sejm on 23 January. Czaputowicz’s ministry was not prepared for it, despite the fact that during the inter-ministerial consultations he had warned MinJus against the international consequences of the planned amendment. The post of Polish ambassador to Tel Aviv was vacant, and only on February 1 did the ministry instruct Po- lish diplomatic missions on how to present the actions of Polish authorities. MinFor did not take part in the political negotiations with the Israeli side - Warsaw was represented by PiS MEPs.

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 70 The ministry run by a grey cardinal. The staff in Czaputowicz’s ministry is selected by the head of the foreign service, Andrzej Papierz, who was a deputy MinFor until October. He is linked with the head of the Central Anticorruption Bureau (CBA) Mariusz Kamiński, with whom he founded the Republican League in the 1990s. He dealt with personnel matters in the department for the first time when Anna Fotyga was MinFor - then as the director of the human resources office. At that stage, he allegedly already tried to pur- ge the ministry of the graduates of the Russian diplomacy school, MGIMO, and former collaborators with the Communist regime’s security services. He feels that his position in the ministry is strong enough to appoint a new deputy representative of Poland to the EU despite opposition from the deputy minister for EU affairs, Konrad Szymański.

The concept of de-communising the ministry is coming back. With Papierz’s new position in the Sejm, work on the de-communisation law was revived, the aim of which is to clear the Foreign Ministry of former collaborators of the former regime’s security apparatus. Czaputowicz claimed that the problem is now marginal - according to his estimates, the Act would cover only 40 people (in 2015 there were supposed to be over 100), but did not convince the head of the foreign affairs committee, Małgorzata Gosiewska. On behalf of PiS, she submitted a draft of a minor amendment to the law on foreign service in the Sejm. On November 20, the draft was supported in the first reading at the level of Sejm committees. The law will be implemented in MinFor by Papierz.

Opening for talks with Brussels, but no breakthrough. Czaputowicz’s appointment brought about a temporary warming in the government’s relations with EurCom. The new MinFor did not refuse to meet with deputy EurCom president Frans Timmermans and personally explained the Polish approach in Brussels. In this way, he implemented Morawiecki’s policy; the PM also engaged in talks with the Commission. However, Warsaw’s opening up to dialogue did not result in concessions regarding the judiciary laws that EurCom demanded. The thaw only delayed, therefore, the unfavourable decision of Brussels to refer Poland to CJEU. Nor did it stop the Commission from proposing to make the payment of EU funds subject to compliance with the rule of law in the future. The defence of Poland in the dispute with the Commission dominated the cooperation within the Visegrad Group.

Closer relations with the Germans, cold on the line to Paris, keeping London close. Czapu- towicz operates in accordance with the Morawiecki line on the issue of warmer relations with Berlin. In the expose, he restored the Germans to the role of Warsaw’s main partner and also moved away from the confrontational tone taken regarding reparations. MinFor’s efforts are, however, undermined by the Polish ambassador in Berlin, Andrzej Przyłębski, who is strongly critical of Germany. There has been no qualitative change in relations with Berlin, and the improvement of relations serves the government mainly internally - as pro- of of Poland’s strong position in the international arena. Relations with Paris remain cool, due to President Emmanuel Macron’s dislike of the PiS government. It is not felt by the government in London, which has lobbied Warsaw intensely on its version of Brexit.

Eastern policy a hostage to historical policy, no success at the UN. The conflict over the inter- pretation of history currently dominates relations between Poland and Ukraine. Kiev resents Warsaw for the amendment of the IPN law and the fact that references to Ukrainian crimes have not been removed from it. Warsaw, meanwhile, disagrees with the ban on the exhuma- tion of Poles in Ukraine issued by Kiev. MinFor tries to speak for Ukraine’s interests in the EU forum and in the UN, using Poland’s temporary membership of the Security Council. The credibility of Poland in this respect has been however reduced by the less than perfect relations with high-level authorities in Kiev and Warsaw’s troubles in the international arena.

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 71 C- POLITICAL CLOUT

Czaputowicz is not a member of PiS and has no contacts in the party. He is, not infrequen- tly, uninformed about the line he should take on a given issue, which causes him to speak contrary to the current PiS communication, and then diligently retreat. Czaputowicz does not try to run his own political game - the release by his ministry of a legal opinion which was widely seen as criticising Zbigniew Ziobro’s application to ConTrib for an examination of the constitutionality of the Polish courts’ requests for preliminary rulings, was a slip up at work, not a deliberate act. It also demonstrated a lack of political sense of the deputy ministers (in this case, Piotr Warzyk), who do not protect their minister from political mistakes, and mainly deal with routine duties (except for Szymański, who is also Morawiecki’s negotiator in Brussels).

C PUBLIC PERCEPTION

Czaputowicz is recognised by almost half of Poles, but they are usually indifferent to him. The current minister gets better opinions than the previous one – despite being more recognisable, Waszczykowski was not trusted by Poles. The MinFor is active in the media, where he speaks only in matters of foreign policy. Experts have no illusions as to his role in shaping the government’s policy or his authority over the ministry itself - in both cases, his influence is believed to be marginal.

OUTLOOK

Jacek Czaputowicz has given MinFor a gentler face. Due to his very weak political position, however, there is no end of speculation about his possible dismissal. If PiS decides that the removal of the present MinFor would be politically profitable, the PM is unlikely to have any scruples about replacing him. The foreign policy of the government will remain unchanged - it is determined by national politics.

AUTHOR

Joanna Popielawska Senior European Affairs Analyst C

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 72 Anna Zalewska Minister of National Education

A reformer with problems Anna Zalewska has been criticised over educational reform. The minister’s name crops up in discussions of those who may lose their jobs in a government reshuffle.

C policy and governance C GENERAL RATING C- political clout B- public perception

C POLICY AND GOVERNANCE

Anna Zalewska became MinEdu in November 2015. Her main task was to reform the education system, namely the abolition of middle schools and the restoration of eight-year primary school and four-year secondary schools. The process of introducing changes began at the start of the 2017/2018 school year and will last until autumn 2019 when students start their education in new secondary schools. Within the ministry, Zalewska has been working with two deputy ministers from the beginning: Marzena Machałek and Maciej Kopcio. Like Zalewska, both are teachers who have been associated with the PiS for many years (one as an MP, the other in local government).

Confusion over reform. The changes were made quickly, so there was not enough time to prepare them properly. It was only in January that Zalewska signed the core curriculum for secondary schools, and textbooks are to reach schools in the autumn of 2019. This means that publishers did not have enough time to consult with teachers and there is a risk that materials for students will be under-developed. In addition, in September 2019, a double cohort will go to secondary schools: the last graduates of the former middle schools and the first from the eight-year primary schools. MinEdu claims that schools will accommodate everyone; it also proposes that students travel from towns to the smaller localities, where there will be free places in schools. As two years’ cohorts will compete for places in schools, pupils will lose out. More people will also go to technical and industrial schools.

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 73 Unfulfilled promises: meals, programming and chess. From September 2018, all the primary schools were to return to serving lunches - the minister has failed, however, to achieve this goal. Instead, the government wants to give schools PLN 200 million to equip canteens, while subsidies for meals will cover only the poorest children (the criterion will be family income). Primary school pupils are also not learning programming and chess, although according to Zalewska’s plan such classes were to be in place from 2017. MinEdu did not, however, allow teachers to acquire new skills and schools were not given funds to employ the appropriate professionals.

Inadequate help for ill students. From this year, pupils who are entitled to individual classes are not allowed to attend school. Previously, teaching could take place in institutions; students with special educational needs could also attend some of the lessons with their peers. This allowed them to build their social skills and partially relieved their parents. Schools also have a problem with providing students with adequate support. MinEdu banned schools from using civil law (“junk”) contracts, and few speech therapists or phy- siotherapists are willing to take part-time posts. The ministry has, however, promised to withdraw from these provisions.

Local authorities have no money for change. Zalewska puts the blame for problems with introducing changes on local authorities. For their part, local authorities say that the tasks assigned to them are not accompanied by financial resources. The Association of Polish Cities estimates that municipalities are about PLN 600 million short of the sum required to implement the education reform. In 2018, the ministry allocated an additional PLN 68 million to changes in schools (about PLN 3,000 per school). The next educational budget is to increase by 6.6 per cent and will total PLN 45.9 billion, but most of it will be required for teachers’ pay increases. There will be 16 per cent less money for in-service training in next year’s budget.

Unhappy teachers. In the vast majority of cases, the teaching community is dissatisfied with Zalewska’s reforms and their implementation. The Polish Teachers’ Union (ZNP) demands the dismissal of the MinEdu, “Solidarność” is also critical of the changes. The teachers protested in April and September, but their resistance was weaker than last year (then they forced the ministry to raise salaries). ZNP is considering collective use of the L4 sick- -leave certificates (as police officers did before) during spring exams. The actual impact of reforms on employment in education is difficult to assess due to the lack of official data. In the 2017/2018 school year, spending on pensions and compensation benefits increased by one-third. Some of the teachers left to work in other sectors or started tutoring.

C- POLITICAL CLOUT

Zalewska is the head of the PiS structures in the Wałbrzych region. Her position in the party declined after the change of PM – along with MinFam Elżbieta Rafalska, she be- longs to a group of close associates of Beata Szydło. PM Mateusz Morawiecki defended her, however, when PO submitted a vote of no confidence in the minister. Zalewska does not get along with MinHea on questions involving health and education or with MinSci Jarosław Gowin, whom she accuses of not having adequately prepared teacher studies. She has no clout when it comes to MinFin. In the spring, the prosecutor’s office charged Jerzy G., a former voivodship councillor for PiS and a co-worker of Zalewska, over the transfer of PLN 1.2 million from PCK. Some of this money financed the electoral campaigns of local PiS politicians, including the MinEdu. However, the prosecutor’s office did not question Zalewska.

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 74 B- PUBLIC PERCEPTION

According to CBOS, 72 per cent of Poles recognise Zalewska, 29 per cent of those polled trust her while 25 per cent do not. The minister willingly gives interviews, especially in moments important for education, such as the start or end of the school year. She talks mainly about her successes and avoids commenting on embarrassing situations, such as the PCK scandal or the „set up” weighing of schoolbags (the day before Zalewska’s visit, teachers instructed the children not to take the whole set of books). Zalewska is not active in social media: her profile on Facebook provides content from the MinEdu profile, and the last entry on Twitter is from 2016. More information appears on the official it has limited range. Deputy ministers are mainly present in the local media in their regions.

OUTLOOK

Zalewska’s name crops up in discussions of those ministers who may lose their positions after the next government reconstruction. If she ran for EurParl, this would allow PiS to remove a poorly-rated minister, without risking the narrative about the success of her reform. MinEdu herself denies that she will run and maintains that she wants to oversee the implementation of reforms until the end of the parliamentary term. The year 2019 will be a time of test for the changes she introduced – the MinEdu can potentially lose votes for her party in the parliamentary elections.

AUTHOR

Hanna Cichy Financial Sector Analyst C

Polityka Insight Cabinet rating 2018 75 www.politykainsight.pl

POLITYKA INSIGHT’s rating is a qualitative assessment of the work of the prime minister and government ministers. The final rating of each minister is based on 16 scores relating to three areas of ministerial activity. “Quality of Governance” reflects the scores for legislation and policy delivery for leading the ministry and for crisis management. “Political clout” reflects the scores for power in government and within the respective party. “Public image” reflects the scores for trust in opinion-making circles, the perception in the media and trust in broader social groups.

Ministers have received a sub-rating for each area of their activity. It is calculated as an arithmetical mean of weighted grades. The final rating is an arithmetic mean of the three sub-ratings assigned a weighting: “Policy and governance” (50 per cent), “political clout” (25 per cent) and “public image” (25 per cent). Ratings have been given according to a nine-step scale: A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-.