This subject paper is intended to be a research paper delving into different views and analyses from various sources. The views and analyses as contained in this paper are intended to stimulate public discussion and input to the planning process of the "HK2030 Study" and do not necessarily represent the views of the HKSARG.

WORKING PAPER No. 30 BROADBRUSH ENVIRONMENTAL COMPARISON OF DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS

Purpose

1. This paper provides the broad-brush environmental comparison of the development options formulated under the Reference Scenario of the HK2030 Study and an overview of the environmental issues related to the options. It should be noted that the current assessment is part of the staged Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) of the HK2030 Study and there are still uncertainties as regards many of the current results.

Reference Scenario and development options

2. The Reference Scenario has been developed under the HK2030 Study illustrating the key planning assumptions as well as land use and infrastructure requirements, based on which the long-term spatial development patterns would be formulated and assessed. Under the Reference Scenario, a population of 9.2 million and an employment of 4.0 million by 2030 have been assumed (a summary of the key planning assumptions is at Annex A).

3. With the forecasted demand, various planning choices, including intensification of existing and planned development areas as well as identification of new growth areas, are devised to accommodate the additional demand for various land uses. After that, an Initial Scoping Exercise has been conducted to identify the more realistic and practical development options by examining the key considerations of various planning choices. Having examined the implications of the various planning choices, the core components are consolidated under two broad development patterns (i.e. consolidation and decentralization patterns) for a more comprehensive assessment. It should be noted that, while planning choices are numerous, the various components proposed under the development patterns have largely been structured upon recommendations of past and current studies as well as community views which were gathered in earlier stages of the HK2030 Study. The focus of the Study is therefore to critically re-examine the past development proposals, with particular reference to the timing and priority for implementation. It should also be noted that the broad proposals of these patterns are not mutually exclusive, although the common ones may still vary in detail. 4. The development options will be focused on the spatial distribution of land for housing and economic activities, while many of the strategic infrastructure (for example, on-site improvements at the airport, logistics facilities, tourism/cultural facilities, cross-boundary transport, environmental and strategic infrastructure) have already been studied or are being studied in different contexts and will be taken forward as common elements for all options.

5. Regarding the location of new container terminal facilities, the Port Development Strategy Review 2001 has recommended four possible sites, namely West , Northwest Lantau, East Lantau and Southwest Tsing Yi. The East Lantau site is now rendered non-feasible by the Disneyland project. The other three sites are being evaluated under the Study on Hong Kong Port – Master Plan 2020 (HKP2020 Study) in terms of environmental impacts, traffic impacts and other concerned factors.

6. However, due to the timing of the HKP2020 Study, a single preferred location is not available for incorporation into the HK2030 development options at this stage. In view of that the West Tuen Mun site has already been covered by the Tuen Mun Port Development Study1, the broad-brush assessments for the Study will be carried out based on the other two possible port locations, i.e. Southwest Tsing Yi and Northwest Lantau. Together with the two broad spatial development patterns, four options have been generated as follows: • Consolidation Pattern with Tsing Yi Port Option • Consolidation Pattern with North West (NW) Lantau Port Option • Decentralisation Pattern with Tsing Yi Port Option • Decentralisation Pattern with NW Lantau Port Option

7. A table summarising the key differentiating elements of the two broad development patterns, as well as the proposed transport networks, for both the medium and long term, is at Annex B.

Evaluation Methodology

8. The objective of the evaluation at this stage is to provide a broad qualitative assessment of the key environmental issues carried out on a comparative basis without reference to required standards and criteria. This has been undertaken to provide an indicative comparison of the development options. A preferred option, which will be formulated in the next stage of the Study, will be assessed quantitatively as far as possible. It should be noted that the level of detail available for option evaluation at this stage has meant that environmental issues have been addressed on a qualitative basis, using existing information/studies/knowledge where available.

1 Tuen Mun Port Development Study carried out by the Territory Development Department (1993)

- 2 - 9. The comparative assessment of the performance indicators is qualitative and based on the likely performance as judged against the other development options. There are no implications for whether the indicated “preferred” options are likely to meet required environmental standards and criteria, or whether the cumulative environmental impacts associated with the “preferred” option or its components are likely to be acceptable. Such assessment will require further quantitative analysis which will be undertaken in the next stage of the HK2030 SEA Study.

Evaluation Results

10. Evaluation has been conducted for the three benchmark years of 2010, 2020 and 2030. As most of the major projects to be completed before 2010 are already in the pipeline, all development options for year 2010 are very similar, giving rise to broadly the same results from an environmental perspective. The biggest difference between the options is seen in the medium term (i.e. year 2020) due to the implementation of new development areas (NDAs) and new port facilities, together with associated transport infrastructure.

11. This stage of the assessment will focus on a qualitative comparison of the likely environmental impacts of those components that comprise the difference between the options. This will provide an indication of which options are likely to be the least environmentally damaging. At the present stage of assessment, it is not possible to provide an indication of whether or not the “preferred” option will have acceptable levels of environmental impact. A detailed assessment of the preferred option will be conducted at Stage 4 of the Study to determine whether or not the preferred option and its components are likely to meet required environmental standards and criteria.

Impacts of Development Projects for the Short Term (up to 2010)

Water Quality

12. With a projected increase of about 0.3 million population in the Metro Area within this period, particularly at the HK Island catchments not served by Stage 1 of the Harbour Area Treatment Scheme (HATS), the Victoria Harbour may be significantly affected. While Stage 1 of HATS (which was fully commissioned at the end of 2001) has enabled 70% of the sewage flow to be treated before entering the Harbour, the remaining stages of HATS will not proceed as originally planned due to a review conducted in year 2000.

13. The timing for the implementation of the remaining stages of HATS is subject to the outcome of the trials and studies to be completed by early 2004, and the subsequent public consultation for the way forward of HATS. Any increase in population and employment within the Metro Area may affect the water quality in the Harbour Area in the short term if the implementation programme of HATS does not match the growth.

- 3 - 14. In the , the Deep Bay Water Control Zone (WCZ) is a sensitive water body and the Government’s Zero Discharge Policy requires that developments should not cause a net increase in pollution load to Deep Bay. Sewerage networks in the Deep Bay catchment are mainly covered by the North District Sewerage Master Plan (SMP) and the & SMP. The North District SMP will provide for the proper collection, treatment, and disposal of wastewater in the Sheung Shui and Fanling area, whereas the Yuen Long & Kam Tin SMP covers the areas of Yuen Long, , Kam Tin, and . Under the latter scheme, wastewater will be exported and disposed of at Urmston Road via the North West New Territories Effluent Tunnel.

15. According to the approved Sheung Shui to (LMC) Spur Line EIA Report, the construction and operational impacts of the rail on water quality would be minimized through various measures. Particularly, in order to comply with the Zero Discharge Policy for the Deep Bay, a reedbed around LMC Station will be used to polish (a “natural” treatment mechanism in the form of reedbeds) sewage effluent and to treat pollution load from the adjacent river channel.2

Air Quality

16. Hong Kong people generally perceive air quality as the key environmental issue. Deterioration in air quality may be related to a number of factors, including emissions from trans-boundary sources as well as locally from vehicle emissions and power plants (nitrogen oxide (NOx) and respirable suspended particulates (RSP)) as well as construction works (total suspended particulates (TSP) or RSP).

17. Poor air quality is a health issue, particularly roadside pollution due to the emission of RSP by motor vehicles which has been linked to higher death and disease rates. As a result of the enhanced vehicle emission control programme implemented by the Government since 2000, concentrations of RSP and NOx at roadside have been dropping gradually over the past few

years. Whereas concentrations of sulphur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO) and lead remained at levels well below their respective Air Quality Objectives (AQOs) limits in 20023.

18. Over the past decade, concentrations of ozone have been on a slow rising trend which generally indicates a deterioration in regional air quality4. On this front, the HKSAR Government has reached a consensus with the Guangdong Provincial Government to endeavour to reduce four major regional pollutants by 20% to 55% by 2010. The two governments are now working on a regional air management plan to achieve the emissions reduction targets.

2 Source : Sheung Shui to LMC Spur Line EIA Report (EPD website) 3 Source : “Air Quality in Hong Kong 2002”, Air Services Group, EPD. 4 Source : “Air Quality in Hong Kong 2002”, Air Services Group, EPD.

- 4 - 19. Moreover, there are a number of new railway projects planned for completion in the short term, namely East Rail Extension (Hung Hom to Tsim Sha Tsui), Kowloon Southern Link, to Rail Link, West Rail (Nam Cheong to Tuen Mun), Penny’s Bay Rail Link and LMC Spur Line. The use of railway will significantly reduce road traffic, thereby eliminating pollutants from vehicles, e.g. West Rail will help to reduce about 1,000 tonnes of vehicular pollutants a year5.

20. With the completion of the Hong Kong – Shenzhen Western Corridor (HK-SWC) and Deep Bay Link (DBL) as well as the opening of Hong Kong Disneyland within this period, substantial increase in cross-boundary vehicle trips may result which could have the potential to generate significant impacts. Air quality modelling results conducted under the respective “Deep Bay Link Investigation and Preliminary Design” and “Shenzhen Western Corridor Investigation and

Planning” studies show no exceedance of the respective AQOs for NO2, RSP, CO and SO2 at all identified existing and future sensitive receivers in the vicinity of the proposed HK-SWC & DBL. The effects of the increases in cross-boundary vehicle trips, however, will be a key concern and will be investigated in detail during the next stage of the SEA Study.

Noise

21. As the population continues to grow, there will be a need for more housing. More people will be accommodated within the existing urban areas, thus intensifying the population density and increasing the population exposed to excessive road traffic noise. For existing urban areas, there are not many immediate solutions available regarding noise reduction. It is particularly problematic where flyovers pass through high-rise residential neighbourhoods.

22. For new development areas, there are opportunities for noise mitigation and reduction through better planning of land use and different hierarchy of roads, undergrounding of major roads, provision of mitigation at source, and in building design and layout and protecting noise sensitive uses by non-sensitive uses. Nonetheless, it is sometimes unavoidable that some of the new dwellings may expose to excessive road traffic noise in NDAs, especially those at the periphery. The building layout plans will have to be carefully designed to minimise the exposure of sensitive facades to noise sources. Proper land use zoning could be used to ameliorate the noise impacts.

5 Source of information – KCRC website

- 5 - Waste

23. Between 1996 and 2000, the total volume of municipal solid waste increased at an annual rate of 3.5%. For domestic waste, the annual increase was over 4%, which was much higher than the average population growth of 0.9%. Waste prevention and recycling has been the main focus in tackling the waste problem. However, as the amount of waste requiring disposal has been increasing, the landfills have been filling up much faster than planned. The existing landfills would only last 8 to 12 years if waste continues to grow at the current trend.

24. No matter how good we are in dealing with waste prevention and recovery, we still need to handle large volumes of non-recyclable waste. Hence, the Government is examining the appropriate technologies for the development of large-scale waste treatment facilities in Hong Kong to reduce the volume of waste requiring disposal. Even with large-scale waste treatment facilities, there are residual wastes that must be handled safely and landfills are still required for final waste disposal. The Government is examining the feasibility of extending the existing landfills and identifying new landfill sites.

25. The potential impact of the major projects to be completed in the short term would come from the generation of construction and demolition (C&D) materials. If all such C&D materials were to be disposed of at landfills, the existing strategic landfills could be exhausted in a couple of years.

26. Large projects that are producing/would produce large quantities of C&D materials include project, site formation for the housing development near Choi Wan Road and Jordan Valley, LMC Spur Line and Kowloon Southern Link etc. Although a portion of the surplus materials has been/will be beneficially reused and inert materials sorted out as public fill, the remaining C&D waste would still need to be disposed of at landfills. Moreover, for the disposal of inert materials, while the reclamation associated with the Theme Park development provides capacity to accommodate about 13 million m³ of public fill, it is estimated that the shortfall in public filling capacity would reach about 13.5 million m³ by end 2005. In the interim, we are relying on fill banks which could provide temporary stockpiling capacity of about 10 million m³.

Potentially Hazardous Installations (PHIs)

27. None of the existing PHIs will be affected by the proposals within this period although the issue of development constraints imposed by the consultation zones of PHIs remains.

- 6 - Ecology

28. The housing and business developments / redevelopments to be completed within this period are mainly located in existing built-up areas, hence no significant impact on ecology is expected.

29. According to the approved Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) report, habitat loss / disturbance caused by LMC Spur Line will be compensated for through the enhancement of fishponds beyond the disturbance zone of the works. In addition, to reduce disturbance during operation of the railway, a marsh area will be created within 100m of the station building, and stands of bamboo and mixed trees and shrubs will be planted as a buffer around the station complex. An additional 5 ha to the east of the station will be used as a reedbed for polishing effluent from the station sewage treatment works and provide additional areas of marsh and deep water for habitat diversity.

30. Based on the approved EIA report, the proposed location of HK-SWC is the most ecologically acceptable option and several design features of the bridge could effectively minimize ecological impacts, including increasing pier spacing, adopting submerged pile caps, locating cable-stayed structure outside intertidal zone, bridge deck height, and no power line suspended on the bridge.

31. Mitigation measures will be taken to compensate for the loss of important habitats along DBL, e.g. an equivalent area will be re-created near the route at Ngau Hom Shek as compensation for the loss of 0.6 ha of fishponds and agricultural wetlands.

Energy and Natural Resources

32. Increase in population and employment will lead to higher consumption of energy. However, with the implementation of demand side management measures and the growing awareness of the community of the need to practise energy efficiency and conservation, per capita consumption of energy is expected to fall.

33. The expansion of rail network and the adoption of new technologies in the rail system could also help to save on energy use. For example, West Rail could save about 25% of traction power consumption by using a regenerative braking system. However, in the short term, there is still a trend of increasing vehicle use as evident in the steady / slightly increasing vehicle ownership over the last five years, increasing per vehicle mileage, and continuous increase in energy use in transport sector, etc. Moreover, a trend of increasing vehicle weight and engine sizes (due to the growing use of multipurpose vans and four-wheel-drive vehicles) is observed which will increase fuel use. Furthermore, the dispersal of population to new towns and the growing cross-boundary traffic flows, both passenger and freight transport, will further increase fuel use. These factors might offset the reduction in fuel consumption brought about by the use of railway transport.

- 7 - Cultural Heritage

34. For the construction of HK-SWC, an archaeological survey has been carried out and identified Ngau Hom Shek Beach Site as a site of cultural heritage. The rescue excavation works has been completed before construction works commence. Whereas the alignment of DBL has taken into account the significance of identified clan graves and burial grounds.

Landscape and Visual

35. According to the study findings of various transport infrastructure projects to be completed within this period, the residual landscape and visual impacts are considered acceptable with mitigation measures.

Impacts of Development Options for the Medium Term (before 2020) and Long Term (up to 2030)

Consolidation Pattern with Tsing Yi Port option

36. The consolidation pattern assumes sites in the Metro Area to be developed first and no NDAs in the New Territories (NT) will be required before 2020. The provision of housing land to meet the medium-term demand will mainly be generated from developments at the former (a reduced scale reclamation with only the filling up of Approach Channel6), existing vacant or under-utilised sites, urban renewal schemes (assuming more redevelopment and less rehabilitation) and redevelopment of other existing buildings within the built-up areas. In the long term, five NDAs at , North, Fanling North, Hung Shui Kiu North and Kam Tin/ would be required to accommodate housing needs.

37. In this respect, the consolidation pattern performs comparatively better than the decentralisation pattern mainly because priority is given to the use of development opportunities within the Metro Area, and makes less use of Northern NT (which is mainly rural in character) for development. Moreover, due to the more compact development form, the consolidation pattern creates less potential adverse impact on the sensitive ecological, heritage and landscape resources in the NT.

6 The proposed reclamation is based on the current plan for the South East Kowloon Development which is being reviewed by the Government.

- 8 - 38. The consolidation pattern assumes that the Kai Tak Approach Channel (about 65 ha) will be filled up. According to the environmental impact assessment for the South East Kowloon Development, reclamation carried out in Kai Tak Approach Channel could rectify the existing odour nuisance from the channel which has arisen due to poor water quality and low flushing rate, although the odour problem could also be addressed by other means such as capping or treatment of sediments.

39. Noise has been evaluated less favourably for certain performance indicators for the consolidation pattern. The reason is that while new roads and railways will be designed and built in compliance with the EIAO, noise impact of existing roads on the population may be greater under the consolidation pattern as more population will live within the Metro Area.

40. The consolidation pattern assumes more redevelopment (instead of rehabilitation) of urban renewal projects which would generate larger amount of C&D materials than the decentralisation pattern which focuses more on rehabilitation of buildings. On the other hand, as the strategic landfill at Tseung Kwan O will likely close down in the years to come, the consolidation pattern may in the long term generate other consequential environmental issues such as noise and other emissions associated with the longer hauling distances for waste disposal.

41. Future port development at Tsing Yi site would require relocation of the existing LPG/oil depots. The current assessment has not assumed any reprovisioning site as the location of the future port is still uncertain. The SEA will take into account the proposal for a replacement site in the detailed assessments, pending availability of further information from the HKP2020 Study. The reclamation for the proposed Tsing Yi Port will be located very close to the HATS outfall. Whether the presence of the reclamation would affect the water current in the area, therefore affecting the performance of the HATS outfall which could result in significant water quality impacts, has to be further assessed quantitatively at the next stage of the Study, if this site is selected for port development. Also, there would be a problem of treatment and possible disposal of contaminated soil associated with port development at Tsing Yi due to the industrial nature of the current land-base activities in the area. Moreover, the noise impact on residents from off-site traffic (i.e. movement of container trucks and heavy vehicles to and from the port) due to the port activities will be greater for Tsing Yi site as the areas in the vicinity have already been developed for high density residential use.

42. On the other hand, locating the new port facilities in Tsing Yi could utilise a brownfield site and has considerably less potential adverse direct and indirect impact (through the construction of necessary supporting infrastructure) on human or other sensitive receivers. Nonetheless, should the replacement site for the LPG/oil depots be a greenfield site, it may pose development restrictions on the land uses which fall within the consultation zone (CZ) boundary.

- 9 - Decentralisation Pattern with Tsing Yi Port option

43. The decentralisation pattern takes a different orientation and focuses on development of the NT in the initial stage. Three “priority” NDAs in Hung Shui Kiu, Kwu Tung North and Fanling North will be developed before 2020. NDA development would provide greater diversity of densities, design and built forms as well as allow greater flexibility for adopting environmental measures and facilities. Development/ redevelopment in the Metro Area, in particular at the former Kai Tak Airport (no reclamation is assumed), will proceed more slowly and spread over a longer period. Urban renewal will focus on rehabilitation rather than redevelopment. Compared to the other pattern, the process of intensification in the Metro Area will be slower, allowing more space between buildings, better air circulation and penetration of natural lighting, therefore achieving in a better living environment. Beyond 2020, four additional NDAs in Hung Shui Kiu North, Kwu Tung South, Kam Tin/Au Tau and San Tin/Ngau Tam Mei will be implemented.

44. Regarding employment related uses, this pattern assumes that a new secondary employment node in Hung Shui Kiu and, subject to further studies and assessment, a “trade expo” and/or other special economic activities in the LMC Loop will be in place in the short to medium term.

45. In the medium term, a key environmental concern will be the proposed development in the LMC Loop. LMC Loop was previously used as a dump site for soft sediment, of which more than 1,000,000 m3 are contaminated. The issue of the contaminated material must be addressed before any decision on future developments is made. Also, there is a lack of existing public sewerage connection and sewage treatment capacity to handle the wastewater generated from the development at LMC Loop. Moreover, there are concerns about the possible impacts of developments at LMC Loop on the nearby ecological sensitive areas, the water quality of Deep Bay, air quality of the area, and the old river bend at LMC that was restored and conserved as a measure to mitigate the fishpond loss arising from the Shenzhen River training project etc.

46. Deep Bay WCZ is a sensitive water body and the Government’s Zero Discharge Policy requires that developments should not cause a net increase in pollution load to the Deep Bay. Development of NDAs within the catchment area of Deep Bay WCZ may need to “export” treated effluent away from the Deep Bay, which means the relative sewage infrastructure costs would be higher than those in other areas.

47. In both medium and long term, there would be more NDAs and faster development of NDAs under the decentralisation pattern. Due to fundamental changes in landscape character resulting from NDA developments in the rural areas of the New Territories, the potential Landscape/Visual impacts would be greater than the consolidation pattern, although such impacts could be minimised by careful design of the new towns.

48. Impacts due to Tsing Yi port sub-option are the same as discussed in paras. 41 and 42 above.

- 10 -

Consolidation Pattern with NW Lantau Port option

49. The NW Lantau port sub-option heavily influences the overall performance of this option. In the medium term, the development of port facilities at NW Lantau is likely to have greater potential impacts than Tsing Yi in respect of Water Quality and Marine Ecology.

50. In the long term, the operation of the port and the associated navigation channels would also have greater impacts on Water Quality and Ecology (due to the maintenance dredging of fairways).

Decentralisation Pattern with NW Lantau Port option

51. This option performs at lower levels across all environmental disciplines compared to the other spatial development options under consideration.

Overall Assessment

52. As the current approach to the assessment has been qualitative and comparative, there is insufficient information at this stage to substantiate the extent of impact on many environmental aspects and it is impossible to draw any conclusive remarks on the performance of the development options. The next stage of the SEA will examine the overall potential impacts of the preferred option quantitatively as far as possible.

53. However, under both the consolidation and decentralisation patterns, the location of the future port has strong influence on the overall performance. The reason is that further port development might raise concerns on water quality and marine ecology due to the reclamation works it may involve. In addition, there are off-site impacts to be considered, for example the number of trucks/vehicles on the roads associated with the port operation. This will contribute to the deterioration in noise and air quality vis-à-vis the background levels. These will be investigated in detail under the HKP2020 Study.

54. It should be noted that relevant studies have already been carried out separately to assess the environmental impacts of some development components (such as the “priority” NDAs) covered by the development patterns. The findings of these studies, together with consideration of suitable mitigation measures, will be taken into account in the next stage of the SEA Study.

- 11 - Key Environmental Issues to be considered at the Next Stage

55. The evaluation of options at this stage is broad-brush and qualitative in nature while quantitative assessment and detailed modelling, if required, will be carried out in the next stage. As such, the assessment results should not be viewed as the conclusive evaluation of the proposals. Rather they contribute to identifying the key areas of concern which would be taken into account in the formulation of preferred option(s) at the next stage of the Study.

56. A brief discussion of the key environmental issues identified during the broad-brush assessment and an analysis of the availability of practicable mitigation measures are provided in the following paragraphs. Whilst most of these issues and measures may also apply to the West Tuen Mun Site, more detailed considerations are highlighted in the working paper entitled “Initial Assessment of Possible Port Development Sites”.

Water Quality

57. The key water quality issue for the spatial development patterns relates to the treatment and disposal of wastewater.

58. The implementation of the NDAs and associated facilities provides an excellent opportunity to improve water quality in some of the major water bodies of the North-west New Territories (NWNT). This would occur through relocation or disappearance of unplanned and polluting uses, provision of adequate stormwater and sewerage facilities, provision of mitigation measures for identified adverse impacts and adherence to the Deep Bay Zero Discharge Policy and WQOs. However, in view of the potential development pressure, review of relevant Sewerage Master Plans is required to ensure that the provisions already made for sewage collection facilities and capability of treatment and disposal facilities are appropriate with respect to the timing and size of developments planned.

59. In general the HATS will be able to cater for the increase in population in the Metro Area. Although HATS Stage 1 has brought about an improvement in water quality in Victoria Harbour, the remaining 30% of sewage flow entering the Harbour has only received preliminary treatment. With continued population growth and development in the Metro Area, deterioration may occur if the remaining stages of HATS do not proceed as planned.

60. Regarding the proposed port facilities, key water quality issue relates to the dredging and disposal of marine sediment. The mitigation of construction phase impacts may be possible by using new technologies and improved dredging and disposal methods for the port options. Detailed hydrodynamic and water quality modelling will be required to quantitatively assess the significance of the impacts associated with the port options.

- 12 - 61. Moreover, large-scale reclamations for port facilities may permanently affect water flow patterns, and the reclamation for the proposed Tsing Yi Port will be located very close to the HATS outfall. Whether the presence of the reclamation would affect the water current in the area, therefore affecting the performance of the HATS outfall which could result in significant water quality impacts, has to be further assessed quantitatively at the next stage of the Study.

Air Quality

62. The major contributor to Hong Kong’s roadside air pollution is vehicular traffic emissions. Therefore any alternatives which will reduce road traffic or emissions from it would have a beneficial effect on the air quality. Conversely, alternatives which are likely to cause an increase in road traffic will probably cause adverse impacts, in particular on air quality. The potential impacts from the possible increases in cross-boundary traffic will need to be considered in the next stage of the Study.

63. The Reference Scenario assumes substantial increases in population over both the medium and long term, hence expansion of the road network is required to cope with the subsequent increase in road traffic. Additional local roads will also be necessary to link up the port and major trunk roads, especially for the NW Lantau Port sub-option if it is to be built on an artificial island. The movement of container trucks and heavy vehicles due to the port operation may also significantly increase the traffic flows within the district. Apart from the contribution from port-related road traffic emissions, trans-boundary air quality conditions also have a major effect on the regional air quality. In future, it should however be emphasized that with the continued development and adoption of “cleaner fuels” and advanced technology, as well as appropriate institutional arrangements (such as more cooperation with Guangdong governments in addressing cross-boundary environmental issues), the regional air pollution problem is likely to be tackled.

64. Consideration needs to be given to the topographical constraints which would limit development in certain areas. A case in point is the topographically confined Deep Bay airshed which is the recipient of trans-boundary air pollution from Shenzhen and further afield. Development in this airfield needs to be carefully considered in connection with its available carrying capacity. The decision by the Government to designate Mai Po as an SSSI and its internationally recognized designation as a Ramsar Site have offered a degree of protection to the airshed as development controls are, at least in part, in place. Other confined airsheds include the Tung Chung valley which is influenced by the mountainous region behind, the airport in the foreground and new town developments in between. When considering the development framework, consideration must be given to the airsheds, their carrying capacities and their ability to assimilate cumulative pollution loads.

- 13 - 65. In order to determine whether the individual Air Control Zones could accommodate the level of emissions without compromising the AQOs, detailed quantitative air quality modelling may be required in the next stage of the Study.

Noise

66. It is assumed that major NDAs (such as Hung Shui Kiu and Kwu Tung North) will be developed with rail as the major transportation link. This would result in reduction in vehicle noise and air pollution. The railway alignments need to be well planned to avoid noise impact on the surrounding developments. This requirement has already been taken on board in some current projects, for instance, under the LMC Spur Line project, the future Kwu Tung Station to be built along with the Kwu Tung North NDA, will be placed underground. The tunnelling of railway has significantly avoided the railway noise impact on the developments in the vicinity. The noise generated from railway and associated installations such as ventilation buildings needs to comply with Noise Control Ordinance (NCO) standards.

67. However, appropriate planning is also required on the recipient end. Within NDAs, better urban design and planning measures, such as undergrounding, provision of mitigation at source (e.g. better road design, noise barriers and low noise road surfacing), building facade and podium design, and protecting sensitive receivers by non-sensitive uses, would help to mitigate and reduce traffic noise. Nonetheless, the development of Kam Tin/Au Tau NDA would be subject to the Airfield Height Restriction, and the aircraft noise could be a concern to the sensitive receivers within the NDA.

68. The greatest potential interface between roads and residential areas exists in the Metro Area. For existing urban environments, there are few practicable solutions available for excessive noise and it is particularly problematic where flyovers pass through high-rise residential areas. Large-scale comprehensive urban renewal and restructuring projects may provide opportunities to improve the location and layout of noise sensitive uses and incorporate mitigation measures to achieve compliance with noise standards.

69. Regardless of which location is selected, the future port would be required to comply with noise planning standards and NCO standards. Although insufficient detail is currently available to allow discussions on the extent of the mitigation measures, taking into account the topographical features of the port locations, the noise impact directly from port operation will be minimal. However the off-site traffic arising from the port operation may significantly increase the traffic load on existing roads in the vicinity and additional roads may be required to link up the port and the major trunk roads. The noise impact from the additional traffic loading and the alignment of the port associated additional roads will need to be evaluated in the next stage of the Study.

- 14 - 70. In view of insufficient information currently available, a conclusion on the best noise performance option cannot be made at this stage. The exposure of population to excessive noise depends on (i) the alignment of the new railways and the new roads; (ii) the possible increase/decrease of the current flight and rail frequency and road traffic flow on existing roads; and (iii) the feasibility of the implementation of noise mitigation measures on existing noise sources.

71. Under the current planning requirements, new railways and new roads are governed by the EIAO and HKPSG. Noise impact of new railways and new roads on the population would not be substantial. However, the possible change in traffic flow along the new roads may increase/decrease the exposure of population to excessive noise. For existing roads generating excessive traffic noise, there is currently a programme to retrofit them with noise barriers and/or resurface them with low-noise surfacing materials where practicable. However, it is not practicable to provide noise mitigation measures on all existing noisy roads due to factors including technical feasibility.

Waste

72. As stated in paras. 23 and 24 above, the Government is tackling the waste problem on different fronts. While we are studying the feasibility of extending the existing landfills and selecting the appropriate technologies for developing large-scale waste treatment facilities, waste prevention and recycling remains our main focus in tackling the waste problem.

73. We have been testing out various waste recovery systems in order to identify the modes that are the most cost-effective and will best suit local needs. For example, in March 2003, we have launched a wet/dry waste sorting pilot programme at four housing estates in the Eastern District. Under the programme, dry waste is separately collected and delivered to a temporary sorting facility at the Island East Transfer Station where recyclables are recovered for recycling purpose. In planning new development areas, consideration could be given to the provision of appropriate facilities for waste collection and recovery.

74. Another key waste disposal issue arising from the assessment is the potential generation of large quantities of C&D materials either from redevelopment schemes, land formation works associated with NDA developments as well as major infrastructure projects. It is anticipated that there will be an acute shortage in public filling capacity to accommodate C&D materials in the coming years. Nonetheless, the potential generation of large quantities of C&D materials from the development of NDAs may be reduced if suitable measures are explored and adopted during the early planning and design stages.

- 15 - 75. Although there may be difficulties in coordinating project timetables, large reclamations may provide outlets for C&D materials. From a strategic waste management viewpoint, the NW Lantau Port development, which would require significantly larger reclamation area than the Tsing Yi Port, could better help to alleviate the capacity problem.

76. An effective soil remediation strategy would be required to deal with land-based contamination at the Tsing Yi port site and the LMC Loop. As the space within the strategic landfills becomes more scarce, off-site disposal of contaminated soil must be reduced and future techniques will focus on in-situ treatment. Alternative treatment techniques such as those demonstrated by the Cheoy Lee Shipyard example are available, however further detailed investigation is required to determine the appropriate treatment method.

77. Port development would require the disposal of large amount of contaminated dredged marine sediment would also impose considerable pressure on the limited disposal capacity of contaminated mud pits. However, decontamination of the dredged sediment prior to disposal would allow open sea dumping. Moreover, alternative reclamation design should be explored to reduce the total volume of marine sediment excavated.

Potentially Hazardous Installations

78. The identified PHIs in the NWNT are the chlorine storage and handling facilities at the existing Au Tau Water Treatment Works and the future extension of Ngau Tam Mei Water Treatment Works. Details of possible overlap between the NDAs and the respective consultation zones (CZs) are currently not available. However, in order to comply with the risk guidelines, the areas within the Fanling North NDA which extend into the CZ of the Sheung Shui Water Treatment Works is limited to low density land use.

79. New developments at the former Kai Tak Airport will likely drive the conversion of surrounding areas to uses more compatible with the new land use proposals. Whether the existing Ma Tau Kok Gas Works, which is classified as PHI and under private ownership, will be redeveloped for other uses depends on private initiatives.

80. Restrictions on the expansion or establishment of any residential areas abutting or overlapping with CZs need to be reviewed to determine alternative solutions or means to circumvent the problems when more detail is available.

- 16 - 81. According to the HKP2020 Study, reprovisioning site for the existing five LPG/oil terminals on south Tsing Yi would be required if port facilities were developed there. While the consultants of HKP2020 Study are identifying suitable sites for reprovisioning needs, our assessment at this stage has not assumed any replacement site as the relocation of these facilities is still uncertain. However, it is important that the future sites for the relocation of PHIs should be carefully selected, and that the unavailability of reprovisioning site may hinder the feasibility of the Tsing Yi port sub-option.

82. Major economies in the world are putting into a vast amount of R&D effort into the development of hydrogen economy, and many economies (including USA, EC and Japan) are forecasting the full commercialisation of hydrogen or fuel cell vehicles by 2020. The construction for hydrogen infrastructure will be taken into consideration in the assessment when more information on the requirements is available. The availability of such facilities would, on the other hand, have positive impacts on the air quality.

Ecology

83. The key ecological issues associated with the options are mainly related to the development of NDAs in the New Territories and new container terminal facilities.

84. Ecological assessments have been carried out for the priority NDAs at Kwu Tung North, Fanling North and Hung Shui Kiu under the North-east New Territories (NENT) and NWNT planning studies. Results indicate that while some valuable habitats will be affected by developments, the habitat loss could be compensated for within the respective NDAs. NDA development could also result in fragmentation of habitats, however this could be minimised by maintaining open spaces as corridors for species movements.

85. There is not yet detailed assessment on the ecological impacts of the Kwu Tung South, Hung Shui Kiu North, Kam Tin/Au Tau or San Tin/Ngau Tam Mei NDAs. However, it should be noted that some of the areas within the NWNT are in close proximity to the Wetland Conservation Area and Wetland Buffer Area, which protect this fragile and ecologically significant wetland ecosystem. This must be taken into consideration in the future planning of the concerned NDAs.

86. There may be ecological impact due to the proposed special economic development at LMC Loop, which is located close to the Mai Po Ramsar site and is surrounded by contiguous fishponds with high ecological value. LMC Loop has been reinstated and largely covered with vegetation, particularly colonized naturally by reedbed in certain locations where water may be retained in wet season. As the site is in direct vicinity of Wetland Conservation Area, the potential ecological impact will need to be carefully assessed.

- 17 - 87. The proposed NW Lantau port is located within an ecological sensitive area. There is a designated marine park at and and a potential site for designation as marine park in southwest Lantau at Fan Lau. The area is also an important spawning ground for commercial fisheries. Further study to understand the significance of potential habitat loss or degradation is warranted.

88. The alignment of the associated road networks for NW Lantau Port should be carefully planned to minimize the loss of natural coastline and avoid any disturbance to the valued ecological sites, e.g. San Chau SSSI on Lantau Island.

Energy and Natural Resources

89. Energy consumption rates are linked to population size and GDP, and as such there is little to differentiate between the options. It is important to note that as the aspirations of the public increase so will their consumption of energy (and water consumption etc.). The key point to note here is that the energy requirements are expected to increase and would impact on the world’s natural resources unless there is a switch to renewable energy. There are many “clean energy” sources which have been developed or are in the process of being developed. These have been discussed in the Key Issues Report7 which include wind and solar power, etc. The government is actively studying the feasibility of wider application of these “clean energy” sources in Hong Kong.

90. Energy efficiency measures, such as water-cooled air conditioning systems, are being accorded a higher status when developing plans and designs for new buildings. This is an area being explored in Hong Kong and which will no doubt become more important in future planning. As air conditioning constitutes as much as 30% of total electricity consumption in Hong Kong, future planning should cater for implementation of high energy efficient air conditioning systems such as district cooling systems, which save 30% of power, as compared with air-cooled air conditioning system.

7 Key Issues Report is a technical report prepared by the SEA Consultants of the HK2030 Study (please refer to HK2030 Study homepage at www.info.gov.hk/hk2030).

- 18 - Cultural Heritage

91. The primary conclusion of this broad assessment is that whilst impacts to cultural heritage and archaeological resources (from NDAs, urban renewal or other residential and infrastructure projects) are amenable to mitigation, it is necessary to ensure that the principle to preserve sites or features of cultural or archaeological significance is fully embraced in detailed planning of major development projects. It is also important to adopt a holistic approach in conservation of cultural heritage and historical buildings/sites. In addition to giving appropriate protection to historical buildings, the concept of conserving clusters of heritage buildings, streets and areas needs to be considered with a view to preserving the cultural ambience and enhancing the community’s sense of belongings.

Landscape and Visual

92. The key landscape and visual issue relating to the spatial development options is that associated with the fundamental change in landscape character resulting from the development of NDAs in the New Territories. It will be impossible to mitigate the impacts resulting from the transformation from largely rural landscapes to high-rise urban environments. However, the development layout for the NDAs has been designed to minimize the impacts. Important existing landscape features have generally been preserved within the NDA proposals. Other mitigation measures such as landscape planting and stepped building heights have also been recommended.

93. The NW Lantau port sub-option would form an offshore island to the northwest of Tai O. The existing landscape character in this area is remote and exposed, characterized by open seascapes (punctuated by marine vessels) as well as natural coastline and uplands of Lantau Island. This area is comparatively more sensitive to development and it will be more difficult to mitigate the visual impacts of the port facility on tourists, hikers and pleasure craft.

Planning Department November 2003

- 19 - ANNEX A SUMMARY TABLE OF KEY PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS

2001 2010 2020 2030

Resident Population (million) 6.7 7.6 8.5 9.2 Employment (million) 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.0

Average Annual GDP Growth (%) -0.4 3.0 2.5 Accommodation for (million m2 GFA): 37.5 40.8 43.7 46.1

- Premier Offices 4.1 5.1 6.2 7.2 - General Business Uses 33.4 35.7 37.5 38.9

Accommodation for Special Industrial 3.9 5.0* 5.9* 6.3* Uses (million m2 GFA)

Port Cargo Growth (million TEUs) 17.9 29.7** 40.6** 49.5#

- Ocean Trade 13.2 21.0** 30.2** 36.8# - River Trade 4.7 8.7** 10.4** 12.7#

Growth in Air Services Demand 32 53# # 87# # 105# - Passengers (million) # # # # # - Freight (million tonnes) 2 5 9 14

Visitor Arrivals (million) 14 37 47 70

Figures shown are cumulative figures. * Based on existing and planned projects, such as the Science Park, Cyberport and the remaining areas of the existing industrial estates. ** Source: Hong Kong Port Cargo Forecasts 2000/01, Hong Kong Port and Maritime Board, 2001. # Assuming annual growth of 2%, subject to HKP2020 Study and review by the Hong Kong Airport Authority. # # Source: Master Plan 2020 of Hong Kong International Airport, Hong Kong Airport Authority, 2001.

- 20 - ANNEX B KEY HOUSING AND EMPLOYMENT COMPONENTS AND TRANSPORT NETWORK ASSUMPTIONS UNDER THE TWO SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS

Time-Frame Consolidation Pattern Decentralisation Pattern

Up to 2020 Provision of Housing Land

former Kai Tak Airport (whole) former Kai Tak Airport (partial) urban renewal (more urban renewal (more rehabilitation, redevelopment, less rehabilitation) less redevelopment) Government land at existing Government land at existing built-up built-up areas areas (fewer than in the other no New Development Area (NDA) Pattern) in the New Territories 3 NDAs - Hung Shui Kiu

Kwu Tung North Fanling North

Provision of Land for Office/ Business

existing and oncoming supply mainly from existing and oncoming

redevelopment/ conversion of supply existing industrial buildings Premier Office Centre at the former Kai Tak Airport provision of land for office/ business uses in Hung Shui Kiu which will lead to a slower pace of redevelopment of old buildings Lok Ma Chau Loop to be developed for a “trade expo” and/or other special economic activities

Transport Network

Cross-boundary Road: HK-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge Rail: Guangzhou-Shenzhen-HK Express Rail Link

- 21 - Time-Frame Consolidation Pattern Decentralisation Pattern

Domestic Up to 2020 Road: Central Kowloon Route/ T2/ Western Coast Road; Lantau Road P1/ Tsing Yi-Lantau Link; Strategic North-South Link (West) between Northwest New Territories and North Lantau (i.e. Tuen Mun-Chek Lap Kok Link and Tuen Mun Western Bypass); Strategic North-South Link (East) between Northwest New Territories and North Lantau (i.e. Route 10 and Tsing Lung Bridge); either Route 7 (road) or South Hong Kong Island Line (rail) Rail: West Hong Kong Island Line; Northern Link; either South Hong Kong Island Line (rail) or Route 7 (road)

Provision of Housing Land Up to 2030 development at former Kai Tak former Kai Tak Airport (remaining Airport completed before 2020 areas) urban renewal (more urban renewal (more rehabilitation, redevelopment, less rehabilitation) less redevelopment) 5 NDAs : 4 additional NDAs : Hung Shui Kiu Hung Shui Ku North Kwu Tung North Kam Tin/Au Tau Fanling North San Tin/Ngau Tam Mei Hung Shui Kiu North Kwu Tung South Kam Tin/Au Tau Government land at existing built-up areas Government land at existing built-up areas

Provision of Land for Office/ Business Premier Office Centre at the former development of Premier Office

Kai Tak Airport Centre completed before 2020 private-sector redevelopment for private-sector redevelopment for office and general business uses office and general business uses Government land at existing Government land at existing built-up built-up areas areas

Transport Network Domestic

Road: Eastern Highway (Northern New Territories to Hong Kong Island) Rail: North Hong Kong Island Line

- 22 -