RUSSIA in GLOBAL AFFAIRS Vol. 6•No. 1•JANUARY – MARCH•2008 Contents Our First Five Years Fyodor Lukyanov 5 Transformation Continued Russian Modernization: Interests and Coalitions Leonid Grigoriev 8 Attempts to overcome a serious crisis and launch the process of moderniza- tion can be compared to trying to climb out of a deep well. Neither the state, nor business nor civil society can climb out on its own. The three forces will only be able to move upward if they realize that they must pool their efforts to transform the country – keeping in mind that they should not climb over each other, or they will fall back down into the well. A New Chance for a Hopeless Cause Dmitry Furman 27 The post-Soviet system has acquired its finishing touches now and it replicates the Soviet one in minute details. We have come to the point where distinguished textile workers praise Putin at “history-making” con- gresses of the party. But a return to the past means a rebirth of intellec- tual dissent as an element immanent for the past. If “distinguished textile workers” are back in place, then we cannot but get new “renegades” and “neo-dissidents.” Russia’s Multi-Layered Ethnic Policies Alla Yazkova 35 Contrary to classical Western versions of nationalism in the past or even nationalism in the era of playing catch-up (like in Asia or Latin America), Russian nationalism is extremely conservative and does not have either a consummate modernization program or even separate elements and that is why it can only lead to a dead end. It perceives any reformist programs as ‘anti-Russian’ or ‘anti-national.’ Contents Russia’s Policy Toward Compatriots in the Former Soviet Union Igor Zevelev 49 The official attitude of Moscow toward Russians outside the Russian Federation after the disintegration of the Soviet Union shows quite clearly the victory of pragmatism over the phantoms of imperial heritage. Yet the political rhetoric concerning this issue often has a neo-imperialist tone. It plays a compensatory role in the national consciousness and lays founda- tions for more resolute actions in the future. In Search of Priorities Russia’s Global Role and European Identity Vladimir Lukin 64 Russian society abounds in ideas and ideological concepts of every descrip- tion today, and proponents of each of them vehemently insist that only their views must be declared a priority for the country’s development. Various opinions and bitter debates that range all the way up to complete intoler- ance show that it is impossible to design a vector of development on which the majority of Russians would agree. Modern Russia and Postmodern Europe Boris Mezhuev 74 Russia and Europe have to learn how to live and cooperate without under- standing each other. To some extent, the right to remain different and misun- derstood is the starting point for moving our value coordinates closer together. This right must be recognized by both modernists and postmodernists. This requires that we abandon our claims to be judges and prosecutors for each other. Russia and the West: Is Confrontation Inevitable? Sir Roderic Lyne 86 Policy should not be based on a misplaced presumption of confrontation. Russia and the West are not – yet – in a confrontation. Confrontation would be unnecessary, mutually damaging and potentially dangerous; but the possi- bility exists. We tried to become partners and allies. That turned out to be unrealistic. We have failed, for the time being. But that should not make us enemies. There is too much at stake, and we have too much in common. Multipolarity and Demography Anatoly Vishnevsky 103 An excessive rapprochement with growing China, which lacks resources of its own, may impose “allied obligations” on Russia, which can ultimately result in the limitation of its rights to its own resources and to territories where they are located. Moscow will be able to successfully defend its inter- ests only by relying on the solidarity of countries of the North, which are in the same demographic boat with it. Economic Options Russia and Europe Are Doomed to Cooperate Philip Hanson 120 One of the many difficulties in relations between the European Union and Russia is that Russian policymakers see their own state as meriting, by its size, resources, history and location, a right to be consulted on EU policies and not treated simply as one of many neighbors or potential members. When so much of the business between the two entities is to do with ener- gy, closer consultation on policies in precisely that sphere makes sense. That should work both ways: over Russian policies as well as EU policies. RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL. 6 • No. 1 • JANUARY – MARCH • 2008 Contents Is Free Trade Heading for Eclipse? Jean-Pierre Lehmann 128 Rising insecurity, the uncharted and seemingly turbulent waters in which the global economic ship is heading, is occurring amidst frightening environ- mental degradation and climate change, apprehensions related to “identifi- cation” and immigration, the steep decline of the U.S. and the quagmire of the Middle East, the seemingly daunting industrial and financial muscle of China, rising inequality and high levels of poverty, and the fear of possible devastating pandemics. The Change in the External Factors of Russia’s Development Mikhail Delyagin 138 The Russian election campaign and related political events have distracted the public’s attention from the fact that the country has found itself in new circumstances. Luck, which has helped Moscow to greatly consolidate its positions over the past few years, is giving way to increasingly growing prob- lems. The general situation may be far less favorable in the new political cycle. Geopolitical Maneuvers Nuclear Disarmament: Problems and Prospects Victor Yesin 150 The stagnation that has settled in the field of nuclear arms control must be overcome. The control regime must be preserved. For all its imperfections, it is much better for international security than the absence of nuclear arms control. Such control may be lost after 2012 if the leaders of Russia and the United States do not display political will. The Competition for Security Roles in Central Asia Ivan Safranchuk 159 The talk about the SCO’s anti-American stance did not spring out of noth- ing. The organization openly pursues the goal of doing without the U.S. in resolving all challenges facing Central Asia. While it does not seek to oppose Washington either globally or regionally, the SCO does not want any links with Washington either. This means it wants to get along without the U.S., but not go against it. Russia’s East Asian Strategy: The Korean Challenge Georgy Toloraya 172 Russia has a chance of getting an attractive niche in Northeast Asian affairs now – peacefully, without irritating its partners and avoiding considerable costs. The Russian position in the region may in some measure resemble (although with a much smaller military element) the one that Russia had in post-Versailles Europe, when the absence of conflicts with other major play- ers allowed it to play a balancing role. Controversy Is There A Way Out of the Karabakh Deadlock? Vladimir Kazimirov 186 Who Is to Blame for the Karabakh Impasse? Fuad Ahundov 199 RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL. 6 • No. 1 • JANUARY – MARCH • 2008 Published quarterly RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS BOARD OF TRUSTEES EDITORIAL BOARD Sergei KARAGANOV, Chairman Vladimir POTANIN (Chairman) Martti AHTISAARI Andrei KOKOSHIN Vladimir POZNER Interros Holding Company (Finland) Mikhail KOMISSAR Sergei PRIKHODKO Sergei GENERALOV Graham ALLISON (U.S.A.) 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