Sustainability in a human-dominated region: the agricultural use of natural capital Yining Bai, Saeed P. Langarudi, Sam Fernald [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]

What is Natural Capital ? Accounting Natural capital in form of irrigated land and water Sustainability in the light of natural capital cont.

7000 Natural capital is a stock that yields a flow of 6500 19 6000 17 5500 5000 15 ecosystem service and valuable goods for 4500 13 4000 3500 11 3000 9 supporting human activities into the future based WF depth 2500 7 2000 1500 5 on the traditional definition of capital. 1000 3

Per capita WF, WA and WF size (m3) 500 Sustainability depends on the maintenance of the 0 1 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051 2053 2055 2057 2059 2061 2063 2065 2067 2069 2071 2073 2075 2077 2079 2081 2083 2085 2087 2089 2091 2093 2095 2097 2099

BWF GWF WA/WF size WF depth total stock of capital, including natural capital, out of various parts of the total stock of capital, • WA < WF size: limited water availability is non-substitutable. • The proportion of GWF increases over time • Overdraft groundwater increases the risk of Causal structure of the model Lighten policy through natural capital pollution • Irrigated land contributes land • WF depth climbs In order to fully deliver nature valuing, the + + + + iigaed land ae demand poplaion footprint ecological footprint (EF) model is a mature + Natural capital as indicator in policy implementation + • Groundwater pumping for irrigation approach for quantitatively measuring the effect + + - contributes carbon footprint Decoupling Index (DI) : the declining quantity of + + of human occupation on natural capital. The 3D ag income - labo demand natural capital for producing per capita of ecological footprint (3D EF) model not only face ae - + • Blue WF and Grey WF contributes depicts stock consumption but also flow natural capital flow income + occupancy. A System Dynamic model using the ae aailabili - • The cost of canal lining impacts water • DI ≥ 1 (strong decoupling ): natural capital + income + STELLA platform is built to simulate how + capial supply and agricultural income consumption decrease as income grows. complex systems change over time and to - gondae + • Depletion of natural capital affect the • 0 < DI < 1 (weak decoupling): natural capital capture realistic dynamic behavior between pace of canal lining consumption grows simultaneously with variables, including feedback loops, delays, and naal capial canal lining income, with the income growing at a faster nonlinear relations. This model is appropriate for rate. modeling complex relations among social, Sustainability in the light of natural capital • DI ≤ 0 (coupling): natural capital consumption economic, and physical components coupled 0.8 1.2 grows together with income, but natural with interdependencies between natural capital 1985 10.0 0.7 1.0 9.0 capital consumption grows faster. 1990 8.0 and water system. 0.6 1991 1997 1989 2000 0.8 1996 7.0 0.5 1994 1999 1998 6.0

Simulation resullt Simulation 1993 1992 0.6 0.4

5.0 EF depth 1988 1986 • clarify the value of natural capital 1995 0.4 0.3 4.0 0.1 2.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 3.0 National data 0.2 0.08 2

Percapita and EF sizeBC/EF (gha) 2.0

Correlation coefficient is 0.51 0.0 1.0 • how the value served in the sustainable 0.06 1.5 201720192021202320252027202920312033203520372039204120432045204720492051205320552057205920612063206520672069207120732075207720792081208320852087208920912093209520972099 management of agricultural water LF CF BC EF size EF depth 0.04 1

demand/Incomewater - 0.02 0.5 • CF dominates EF in the future 0 0 Accumulating EF depth Contact information: • BC declines as irrigated land shrinks in the future -0.02 -0.5

Yining Bai [email protected] of Change percent Ag Saeed Langarudi [email protected] • BC is less than the sum of CF and LF indicating the depletion of productivity in irrigated land -0.04 -1 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 Sam Fernald [email protected] • EF depth accumulates to 9.6 until 2069 implying number of years to generate land sources consumed Ag-groundwater withdrawal Income Accumulating EF depth

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