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The Resurgence of Asa'ib Ahl Al-Haq
December 2012 Sam Wyer MIDDLE EAST SECURITY REPORT 7 THE RESURGENCE OF ASA’IB AHL AL-HAQ Photo Credit: Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq protest in Kadhimiya, Baghdad, September 2012. Photo posted on Twitter by Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. ©2012 by the Institute for the Study of War. Published in 2012 in the United States of America by the Institute for the Study of War. 1400 16th Street NW, Suite 515 Washington, DC 20036. http://www.understandingwar.org Sam Wyer MIDDLE EAST SECURITY REPORT 7 THE RESURGENCE OF ASA’IB AHL AL-HAQ ABOUT THE AUTHOR Sam Wyer is a Research Analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, where he focuses on Iraqi security and political matters. Prior to joining ISW, he worked as a Research Intern at AEI’s Critical Threats Project where he researched Iraqi Shi’a militia groups and Iranian proxy strategy. He holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science from Middlebury College in Vermont and studied Arabic at Middlebury’s school in Alexandria, Egypt. ABOUT THE INSTITUTE The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. ISW is committed to improving the nation’s ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve U.S. -
Blood and Ballots the Effect of Violence on Voting Behavior in Iraq
View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Göteborgs universitets publikationer - e-publicering och e-arkiv DEPTARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE BLOOD AND BALLOTS THE EFFECT OF VIOLENCE ON VOTING BEHAVIOR IN IRAQ Amer Naji Master’s Thesis: 30 higher education credits Programme: Master’s Programme in Political Science Date: Spring 2016 Supervisor: Andreas Bågenholm Words: 14391 Abstract Iraq is a very diverse country, both ethnically and religiously, and its political system is characterized by severe polarization along ethno-sectarian loyalties. Since 2003, the country suffered from persistent indiscriminating terrorism and communal violence. Previous literature has rarely connected violence to election in Iraq. I argue that violence is responsible for the increases of within group cohesion and distrust towards people from other groups, resulting in politicization of the ethno-sectarian identities i.e. making ethno-sectarian parties more preferable than secular ones. This study is based on a unique dataset that includes civil terror casualties one year before election, the results of the four general elections of January 30th, and December 15th, 2005, March 7th, 2010 and April 30th, 2014 as well as demographic and socioeconomic indicators on the provincial level. Employing panel data analysis, the results show that Iraqi people are sensitive to violence and it has a very negative effect on vote share of secular parties. Also, terrorism has different degrees of effect on different groups. The Sunni Arabs are the most sensitive group. They change their electoral preference in response to the level of violence. 2 Acknowledgement I would first like to thank my advisor Dr. -
The Coming Turkish- Iranian Competition in Iraq
UNITeD StateS INSTITUTe of Peace www.usip.org SPeCIAL RePoRT 2301 Constitution Ave., NW • Washington, DC 20037 • 202.457.1700 • fax 202.429.6063 ABOUT THE REPO R T Sean Kane This report reviews the growing competition between Turkey and Iran for influence in Iraq as the U.S. troop withdrawal proceeds. In doing so, it finds an alignment of interests between Baghdad, Ankara, and Washington, D.C., in a strong and stable Iraq fueled by increased hydrocarbon production. Where possible, the United States should therefore encourage The Coming Turkish- Turkish and Iraqi cooperation and economic integration as a key part of its post-2011 strategy for Iraq and the region. This analysis is based on the author’s experiences in Iraq and Iranian Competition reviews of Turkish and Iranian press and foreign policy writing. ABOUT THE AUTHO R in Iraq Sean Kane is the senior program officer for Iraq at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP). He assists in managing the Institute’s Iraq program and field mission in Iraq and serves as the Institute’s primary expert on Iraq and U.S. policy in Iraq. Summary He previously worked for the United Nations Assistance Mission • The two rising powers in the Middle East—Turkey and Iran—are neighbors to Iraq, its for Iraq from 2006 to 2009. He has published on the subjects leading trading partners, and rapidly becoming the most influential external actors inside of Iraqi politics and natural resource negotiations. The author the country as the U.S. troop withdrawal proceeds. would like to thank all of those who commented on and provided feedback on the manuscript and is especially grateful • Although there is concern in Washington about bilateral cooperation between Turkey and to Elliot Hen-Tov for generously sharing his expertise on the Iran, their differing visions for the broader Middle East region are particularly evident in topics addressed in the report. -
Iraq's Civil War, the Sadrists and the Surge
IRAQ’S CIVIL WAR, THE SADRISTS AND THE SURGE Middle East Report N°72 – 7 February 2008 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS................................................. i I. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 1 II. BAGHDAD’S CIVIL WAR AND THE SADRISTS’ ASCENT................................. 2 A. HOW THE SADRISTS EXPANDED THEIR TERRITORY ...............................................................2 B. NEUTRALISING THE POLICE...................................................................................................4 C. DEALING IN VIOLENCE..........................................................................................................6 III. THE SADRISTS’ REVERSAL OF FORTUNE .......................................................... 8 A. AN INCREASINGLY UNDISCIPLINED MOVEMENT ...................................................................8 B. THE SADRISTS’ TERRITORIAL REDEPLOYMENT...................................................................10 C. ARE THE SADRISTS SHIFTING ALLIANCES?.............................................................................13 D. A CHANGE IN MODUS OPERANDI........................................................................................16 IV. A SUSTAINABLE CEASEFIRE? .............................................................................. 18 V. CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................ -
Political Marketing in Post-Conflict Elections: the Case of Iraq
Journal of Political Marketing ISSN: 1537-7857 (Print) 1537-7865 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/wplm20 Political Marketing in Post-Conflict Elections: The Case of Iraq Adam Harmes To cite this article: Adam Harmes (2016): Political Marketing in Post-Conflict Elections: The Case of Iraq, Journal of Political Marketing, DOI: 10.1080/15377857.2016.1193834 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15377857.2016.1193834 Accepted author version posted online: 03 Jun 2016. Published online: 03 Jun 2016. Submit your article to this journal Article views: 13 View related articles View Crossmark data Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=wplm20 Download by: [University of Western Ontario] Date: 24 June 2016, At: 07:21 Political Marketing in Post-conflict Elections: The Case of Iraq Adam Harmes Address correspondence to Adam Harmes, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Western Ontario, 4155 Social Sciences Building, London, ON N6A 5C2, Canada. 416-346-4770. E-mail: [email protected] Abstract This article examines political marketing in post-conflict elections through an illustrative case study of post-Saddam Iraq. It does so through articles and media reports as well as interviews and participant-observation research conducted in Iraq during the 2014 national and provincial elections. The article argues that, despite having a number of the comparative and ethnic conflict country characteristics that work against a market oriented approach, Iraqi political parties have become increasingly professionalized and, to a lesser extent, willing to change their product in response to market research. -
From Battlefield to Ballot Box: Contextualising the Rise and Evolution of Iraq’S Popular Mobilisation Units
From Battlefield to Ballot Box: Contextualising the Rise and Evolution of Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Units By Inna Rudolf CONTACT DETAILS For questions, queries and additional copies of this report, please contact: ICSR King’s College London Strand London WC2R 2LS United Kingdom T. +44 20 7848 2098 E. [email protected] Twitter: @icsr_centre Like all other ICSR publications, this report can be downloaded free of charge from the ICSR website at www.icsr.info. © ICSR 2018 From Battlefield to Ballot Box: Contextualising the Rise and Evolution of Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Units Contents List of Key Terms and Actors 2 Executive Summary 5 Introduction 9 Chapter 1 – The Birth and Institutionalisation of the PMU 11 Chapter 2 – Organisational Structure and Leading Formations of Key PMU Affiliates 15 The Usual Suspects 17 Badr and its Multi-vector Policy 17 The Taming of the “Special Groups” 18 Asa’ib Ahl al-Haqq – Righteousness with Benefits? 18 Kata’ib Hezbollah and the Iranian Connection 19 Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada – Seeking Martyrdom in Syria? 20 Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba – a Hezbollah Wannabe? 21 Saraya al-Khorasani – Tehran’s Satellite in Iraq? 22 Kata’ib Tayyar al-Risali – Iraqi Loyalists with Sadrist Roots 23 Saraya al-Salam – How Rebellious are the Peace Brigades? 24 Hashd al-Marji‘i – the ‘Holy’ Mobilisation 24 Chapter 3 – Election Manoeuvring 27 Betting on the Hashd 29 Chapter 4 – Conclusion 33 1 From Battlefield to Ballot Box: Contextualising the Rise and Evolution of Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Units List of Key Terms and Actors AAH: -
Confessionalism and Electoral Prospects in Iraq
Confessionalism and Electoral Prospects in Iraq Yasir Kouti Dlawer Ala’Aldeen About MERI The Middle East Research Institute engages in policy issues contributing to the process of state building and democratisation in the Middle East. Through independent analysis and policy debates, our research aims to promote and develop good governance, human rights, rule of law and social and economic prosperity in the region. It was established in 2014 as an independent, not-for-profit organisation based in Erbil, Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Middle East Research Institute 1186 Dream City Erbil, Kurdistan Region of Iraq T: +964 (0)662649690 E: [email protected] www.meri-k.org NGO registration number. K843 © Middle East Research Institute, 2017 The opinions expressed in this publication are the responsibility of the authors. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical including photocopying, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of MERI, the copyright holder. Please direct all enquiries to the publisher. Confessionalism and Electoral Prospects in Iraq MERI Policy Paper Yasir Kouti Research Fellow, MERI Dlawer Ala’Aldeen President of MERI April 2018 1 Contents Summary ........................................................................................................................................................4 Confessionalism and Party Alliances ........................................................................................................5 -
The Iraqi Protest Movement: from Identity Politics to Issue Politics
THE IRAQI PROTEST MOVEMENT FROM IDENTITY POLITICS TO ISSUE POLITICS FALEH A. JABAR LSE Middle East Centre Paper Series | 25 | June 2018 About the Middle East Centre The Middle East Centre builds on LSE’s long engagement with the Middle East and provides a central hub for the wide range of research on the region carried out at LSE. The Middle East Centre aims to enhance un- derstanding and develop rigorous research on the societies, economies, polities and interna- tional relations of the region. The Centre pro- motes both specialised knowledge and public understanding of this crucial area and has out- standing strengths in interdisciplinary research and in regional expertise. As one of the world’s leading social science institutions, LSE com- prises departments covering all branches of the social sciences. The Middle East Centre harnesses this expertise to promote innovative research and training on the region. Publications Editor Ribale Sleiman Haidar Field Work Team Saad Abed Razzak, Mohammed al-Silawi, Adnan al-Hilali, Mohammed Riad, Hussein Ali, Bassam al-Saadi, Salah al-Saed, Saad Kasem, Mohannad Abbas, Ahmed Abedulamir, Nawfal al-Safi, Ammar al-Mosawi, Ghaith Adnan. Cover Image Iraqi supporters of Muqtada al-Sadr during a demonstration in Baghdad’s Tahrir Square on February 26, 2016. © AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/AFP/Getty Images Middle East Centre The Iraqi Protest Movement: From Identity Politics to Issue Politics Faleh A. Jabar Translated by Abdul Ilah Nuaimi LSE Middle East Centre Paper Series | 25 June 2018 Middle East Centre London School of Economics Houghton Street London, WC2A 2AE @LSEMiddleEast @lsemiddleeastcentre lse.middleeast lse.ac.uk/mec The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) or the Middle East Centre. -
Asaib Ahl Al-Haq and the Khazali Special Groups Network
Backgrounder #38 Asaib Ahl al‐Haq and the Khazali Special Groups Network By Marisa Cochrane, Research Manager, Institute for the Study of War January 13, 2008 Introduction Multi‐National Force‐Iraq has identified various Shia extremist groups operating in Iraq, often using the label Special Groups or Secret Cells (first described in a press conference on July 2, 2007). MNF‐I named Asaib Ahl al‐Haq (AAH, or the League of the Righteous) as an active group on August 19, 2008 and released information that AAH is “affiliated” with Special Groups. This paper evaluates how the two groups are affiliated by testing four hypotheses about the relationship between the Special Groups network, led at one time by Qais Khazali, and Asaib Ahl al‐Haq (League of the Righteous): 1) Asaib Ahl al‐Haq (AAH) is the same as the Khazali Special Groups Network (referred hereafter as Special Groups or SGs); 2) AAH was an affiliate of SGs in 2006 and its successor after Khazali’s arrest in early 2007; 3) AAH was an affiliate of SGs in 2006 and remains so today; and 4) AAH is not related to SGs. After a brief description of Special Groups and AAH, this paper will explore the evidence in support of each hypothesis. The first two hypotheses are most plausible given what is known about these two groups. Because the evidence is ample but indirect, the paper will list the assumptions or qualifications required for each of these hypotheses to be true. The third and fourth hypothesis can be ruled out given the amount of contradictory evidence, the clear connections between the leadership of the two groups, and the statements by MNF‐I. -
Party Total Votes Percentage Total Seats Party Leader State of Law
Total Total Party Percentage Party leader votes seats State of Law Coalition 1,890,567 26.21% 102 Nouri al-Maliki Citizens Alliance 943,646 13.08% 66 Ammar al-Hakim Liberal Coalition 653,763 9.06% 60 Muqtada al-Sadr Muttahidoon 518,968 7.19% 35 Atheel al-Nujaifi Arabian Al Iraqia 18 Saleh al-Mutlaq Kurdistan List 255,362 3.54% 17 Barham Salih Al Iraqia National and United 298,198 4.13% 16 Ayad Allawi Coalition Loyalty to Najaf 118,310 1.64% 9 Adnan al-Zurufi Islamic Dawa Party – Iraq Hashim Al- 7 Organisation Mosawy Iraqi People's Coalition 8 Hope of Rafidain 3 Iraq's Benevolence and Generosity 65,634 0.91% 3 Dr Rushdi Said List Hamid Majid Iraqi Communist Party 2 Mousa Total Total Party Percentage Party leader votes seats National White Bloc 44,765 0.62% 2 Hassan Alawi Other Parties 99 - Total 7,214,146 100% 447 - Source: ISW, Gulf Analysis, IHEC, Musings on Iraq Al Anbar Governorate Total Party Percentage Seats Party leader votes Muttahidoon 115,605 27.89% 8 Osama al-Nujaifi Aabiroun Coalition 62,581 15.10% 5 Qasim Al-Fahdawi Arabian Al Iraqia 57,332 13.83% 4 Saleh al-Mutlaq Al Iraqia National and United 39,500 9.53% 3 Ayad Allawi Coalition Al Anbar United Coalition 35,214 8.49% 3 Kamil al-Dulaymi National Cooperation Coalition 32,718 7.89% 2 Ali Farhan Sheikh Mohamad Daham Al People’s Will Project 25,210 6.08% 2 Farhan Total Party Percentage Seats Party leader votes Iraq’s Affluents 10,785 2.60% 1 Sheikh Jamal Al Jadaan Amiroun Coalition 9,220 2.22% 1 Ahmad Raja Sheikh Majed Ali Al Valiants of Iraq Bloc 8,932 2.15% 1 Sulayman Other -
A. Electoral Process: 8 / 12
Iraq https://freedomhouse.org/print/50016 Published on Freedom House (https://freedomhouse.org) Home > Iraq Country: Iraq Year: 2018 Freedom Status: Not Free Political Rights: 5 Civil Liberties: 6 Aggregate Score: 31 Freedom Rating: 5.5 Overview: Iraq holds regular, competitive elections, and the country’s various partisan, religious, and ethnic groups enjoy some representation in the political system. However, democratic governance is impeded in practice by corruption and security threats, including militant groups such as the Islamic State (IS). In the Kurdistan region, democratic institutions lack the strength to contain the influence of long-standing power brokers. Civil liberties are generally respected in Iraqi law but suffer from the state’s limited capacity to prevent and punish violations. Political Rights and Civil Liberties: A. ELECTORAL PROCESS: 8 / 12 A1. Was the current head of government or other chief national authority elected through free and fair elections? 2 / 4 After national elections, the Iraqi parliament, the Council of Representatives (CoR), chooses the largely ceremonial president, who in turn appoints a prime minister nominated by the largest bloc in the parliament. The prime minister forms a government that assumes most executive power. 1 of 10 4/19/2018 8:50 AM Iraq https://freedomhouse.org/print/50016 The CoR elected in 2014 approved a government headed by Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi after tense and protracted negotiations that took place amid a major IS offensive and other security threats. The new leadership generally maintained the unwritten power-sharing agreements that apportion Iraq’s top political jobs among the country’s religious and ethnic communities. -
The Impact of Multiple Electoral Processes in the Evolution of the Conduct Iraqi Voters After 2003
Journal of US-China Public Administration, March 2017, Vol. 14, No. 3, 160-182 doi: 10.17265/1548-6591/2017.03.004 D DAVID PUBLISHING The Impact of Multiple Electoral Processes in the Evolution of the Conduct Iraqi Voters After 2003 Khamees Hezam Wali University of Baghdad, Baghdad, Iraq Riad Ghazi Al-Badran The Independent Higher Commission for Elections in Iraq, Najaf, Iraq The topic area of the research deals with election in Iraq and new electoral system which is considered as new features of Iraqi political system based on participation and multiparty system; the researchers argued that the process of elections has not provided an opportunity for concrete progress on the path of democracy; it has not made any significant contribution to the process of political change, and it has provided the opportunity for researchers and analysts to rationalize mechanism of authority in Iraq after 2003. The researchers argued the Iraqi electoral behavior in the federal parliamentary elections since 2005 to 2014, and there is no need to keep track of the voting behavior by voters, but it needs to check the basis of the appellation of the electoral lists and make them be based on national principles, rather than sectarian and ethnic principles. The voting behavior of the Iraqi voters is often influenced by the social composition of the community, and the researchers argued that the continuation of the electoral process periodically will contribute significantly to the changing in their locally based voting behavior to nationally based voting behavior. Keywords: elections, behavior, electoral behavior, parties, sharing The parliamentary elections reflect the evolution of the political system, regardless of whether it is real or evolution formality.