DOCSLIB.ORG

Confessionalism and Electoral Prospects in Iraq

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Confessionalism and Electoral Prospects in Iraq Confessionalism and Electoral Prospects in Iraq Yasir Kouti Dlawer Ala’Aldeen About MERI The Middle East Research Institute engages in policy issues contributing to the process of state building and democratisation in the Middle East. Through independent analysis and policy debates, our research aims to promote and develop good governance, human rights, rule of law and social and economic prosperity in the region. It was established in 2014 as an independent, not-for-profit organisation based in Erbil, Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Middle East Research Institute 1186 Dream City Erbil, Kurdistan Region of Iraq T: +964 (0)662649690 E: [email protected] www.meri-k.org NGO registration number. K843 © Middle East Research Institute, 2017 The opinions expressed in this publication are the responsibility of the authors. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical including photocopying, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of MERI, the copyright holder. Please direct all enquiries to the publisher. Confessionalism and Electoral Prospects in Iraq MERI Policy Paper Yasir Kouti Research Fellow, MERI Dlawer Ala’Aldeen President of MERI April 2018 1 Contents Summary ........................................................................................................................................................4 Confessionalism and Party Alliances ........................................................................................................5 Continued, Yet Weakened Confessional Trend .......................................................................................6 Key Alliances and Likely Winners .............................................................................................................7 Table 1: Distribution of (Predicted) Seats Per Alliance ......................................................................10 2 Confessionalism and Electoral Prospects in Iraq Summary Ever since Saddam’s regime was toppled in 2003, Iraq has three competitive parliamentary elections in 2005, 2010 and 2014. In all of these, pre-election alliance building and post-election coalition building processes were fairly predictable given the confessional nature of Iraq’s political system. Essentially, the system is centered on a politically conventional power-sharing arrangement among the country’s three main ethno-sectarian powerhouses: Shi’ite Arab Muslims, Sunni Arab Muslims, and ethnic Kurds (both Sunni and Shi’ite). This arrangement has prompted small political parties to forge alliances with these confessional powerhouses. This time round, this trend is likely to continue in the upcoming elections scheduled on 12 May 2018, but perhaps on a smaller scale. What gravitates political entities are political expediency and nationalist sentiments. These two factors seem to be shaping and forming some alliances such as between secular and civil-minded parties, the Shiite Sadrist movement via Hizb Istaqama (the Integrity Party), and the Iraqi Communist party. On 22 January 2018, Iraqi legislators ratified a decision to hold much-debated anticipated parliamentary elections on 12 May 2018, thereby ending the stalemate by some lawmakers to postpone it. Iraq is at a crossroads, and much of what is at stakes will depend on which of the 27 registered electoral alliances emerge as winners. The large number of alliances suggests that political entities are aware of the competitive advantages inherent to forming these, versus running independently. Indeed, because of Iraq’s particular parliamentarian arrangement, the 24 million eligible voters in the 18 national electoral districts, representing the country’s 18 governorates, will not be electing the next prime minister – they will, instead, be picking an electoral alliance, which will engage in post-election coalition building negotiations to nominate the prime minister and form the next government. While it is still premature to forecast the ultimate composition of the next government, it is most likely to be led by one of four viable options: Eitilaf al-Nasr (Victory Alliance) led by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi; Eitilaf al-Wataniya (National Alliance) led by former Prime Minister Ayad Alawi; Eitilaf Dawlat al-Qanun (State of the Law Alliance) led by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki; and Tahaluf al-Fatah (Conquest Alliance) led by al-Hashd al-Sha’abi (Popular Mobilization Units) commander Hadi al-Ameri. However, given the unpopularity of Iraq’s political class, no single alliance is expected to win a majority of parliamentary seats, forcing the formation of a grand-coalition government, which, given Iraq’s oversized economic, security, and political challenges, would help build broad-based support and legitimacy. Furthermore, the next election is expected to maintain the status quo due to the existence of potent structural forces inspired by political and electoral confessionalism. However, and encouragingly, the status quo may prove ephemeral in the face of internal divisions within the traditional confessional centers of power, the rising popular discontent with the quality of the existing democratic system and the limited progress it has made over the past fifteen years. It would be safe to say that an inclusive government will increase popular support, reduce the likelihood of ethno-sectarian civil war, minimise the influence of external powers, and bolster the nation’s attractiveness to foreign investors. In the long term, Iraq needs a government that is ambitiously reformist to transform the state’s political, electoral, and economic systems. 3 Confessionalism and Electoral Prospects in Iraq Confessionalism and Party Alliances From the time Saddam’s regime was toppled in 2003, Iraq held a total of three previous competitive election cycles in 2005, 2010 and 2014, in which pre-election alliance building and post-election coalition building processes were fairly predictable given the confessional nature of Iraq’s political system. At its core, the system is centered on a politically conventional power-sharing arrangement, albeit with no basis in the Constitution, among the country’s three main ethno-sectarian groups: Shiite Arab Muslims, Sunni Arab Muslims, and ethnic Kurds (both Sunni and Shiite), determined by the population size of each group. As a consequence of this political understanding, the office of the Prime Minister is stamped to Shiite Arabs, the office of Presidency to the Kurds, while Sunni Arabs are allotted the presidency of Parliament. Like other aspects of Iraq’s political life, electoral politics is not spared the negative effects of the confessional arrangement. Indeed, it has become the norm that political entities (i.e. candidates, parties, and alliances) congregate along ethno-sectarian (i.e. confessional) lines, entrusted by voters to advance the interests of their particular groups. As a result, voters have over the years grown hesitant to vote for an independent candidate, whom the electoral system does not favor. Besides being ideologically convenient, electoral alliances serve an important practical purpose: because Iraq’s electoral law favours large political entities, alliances are simply an expedient vehicle to gain and maintain power. By contrast, small parties, if run independently, have little chances of success in this electoral environment. In fact, when they do, they often fail to meet the high threshold required to translate votes into seats, based on the Sainte Lague 1.7 formula for seat allocation. To explain how this formula works, consider the following hypothetical example. Assume that there are three electoral lists competing in an electoral district: one large alliance, one small bloc, and a small party candidate. Also assume that the number of votes required to gain a seat in parliament is 5000. Further assume that the small party candidate receives only 4500 votes. If this were to happen, the candidate would lose the chance to serve, for failing to meet the threshold of 5000 votes. This, in fact, occurred in 2014 parliamentary elections. There and then, a small party candidate in Baghdad electoral district (allotted 69 seats) won 17,575, and yet didn’t gain a parliament seat, because he ranked seven in the overall candidates’ list in Baghdad. Conversely, some other candidates affiliated with large alliances won seats even though they received far fewer personal votes than the small party candidate. This is one main reason why small political parties build alliances with traditional major powerhouses, previously known locally as the House of Shiites, House of Sunnis, and House of Kurds. Now, these ‘Houses’ are being dismantled, smaller powerhouses (lists and alliances led by established political entities or personalities) are replacing them, albeit still congregating along ethno-sectarian lines. Indeed, small parties recognize the difficulty, if not impossibility, of succeeding without allying themselves to this confessional system, i.e. adjusting to the logic and functionality of the system. Hence, the problem in Iraq is not a matter of the quality (good vs. bad) or nature (good. vs. evil) of candidates - the problem, in essence, is structural, rooted in the vertical ethno-sectarian system. More telling is why the majority of voters continue electing and re-electing the same roster of leadership. Given how disappointing the performance of leaders has been over the last 15
Load more

Recommended publications
  • The Resurgence of Asa'ib Ahl Al-Haq
    December 2012 Sam Wyer MIDDLE EAST SECURITY REPORT 7 THE RESURGENCE OF ASA’IB AHL AL-HAQ Photo Credit: Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq protest in Kadhimiya, Baghdad, September 2012. Photo posted on Twitter by Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. ©2012 by the Institute for the Study of War. Published in 2012 in the United States of America by the Institute for the Study of War. 1400 16th Street NW, Suite 515 Washington, DC 20036. http://www.understandingwar.org Sam Wyer MIDDLE EAST SECURITY REPORT 7 THE RESURGENCE OF ASA’IB AHL AL-HAQ ABOUT THE AUTHOR Sam Wyer is a Research Analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, where he focuses on Iraqi security and political matters. Prior to joining ISW, he worked as a Research Intern at AEI’s Critical Threats Project where he researched Iraqi Shi’a militia groups and Iranian proxy strategy. He holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science from Middlebury College in Vermont and studied Arabic at Middlebury’s school in Alexandria, Egypt. ABOUT THE INSTITUTE The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. ISW is committed to improving the nation’s ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • Iraq: Opposition to the Government in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)
    Country Policy and Information Note Iraq: Opposition to the government in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) Version 2.0 June 2021 Preface Purpose This note provides country of origin information (COI) and analysis of COI for use by Home Office decision makers handling particular types of protection and human rights claims (as set out in the Introduction section). It is not intended to be an exhaustive survey of a particular subject or theme. It is split into two main sections: (1) analysis and assessment of COI and other evidence; and (2) COI. These are explained in more detail below. Assessment This section analyses the evidence relevant to this note – i.e. the COI section; refugee/human rights laws and policies; and applicable caselaw – by describing this and its inter-relationships, and provides an assessment of, in general, whether one or more of the following applies: • A person is reasonably likely to face a real risk of persecution or serious harm • The general humanitarian situation is so severe as to breach Article 15(b) of European Council Directive 2004/83/EC (the Qualification Directive) / Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights as transposed in paragraph 339C and 339CA(iii) of the Immigration Rules • The security situation presents a real risk to a civilian’s life or person such that it would breach Article 15(c) of the Qualification Directive as transposed in paragraph 339C and 339CA(iv) of the Immigration Rules • A person is able to obtain protection from the state (or quasi state bodies) • A person is reasonably able to relocate within a country or territory • A claim is likely to justify granting asylum, humanitarian protection or other form of leave, and • If a claim is refused, it is likely or unlikely to be certifiable as ‘clearly unfounded’ under section 94 of the Nationality, Immigration and Asylum Act 2002.
    [Show full text]
  • Blood and Ballots the Effect of Violence on Voting Behavior in Iraq
    View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Göteborgs universitets publikationer - e-publicering och e-arkiv DEPTARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE BLOOD AND BALLOTS THE EFFECT OF VIOLENCE ON VOTING BEHAVIOR IN IRAQ Amer Naji Master’s Thesis: 30 higher education credits Programme: Master’s Programme in Political Science Date: Spring 2016 Supervisor: Andreas Bågenholm Words: 14391 Abstract Iraq is a very diverse country, both ethnically and religiously, and its political system is characterized by severe polarization along ethno-sectarian loyalties. Since 2003, the country suffered from persistent indiscriminating terrorism and communal violence. Previous literature has rarely connected violence to election in Iraq. I argue that violence is responsible for the increases of within group cohesion and distrust towards people from other groups, resulting in politicization of the ethno-sectarian identities i.e. making ethno-sectarian parties more preferable than secular ones. This study is based on a unique dataset that includes civil terror casualties one year before election, the results of the four general elections of January 30th, and December 15th, 2005, March 7th, 2010 and April 30th, 2014 as well as demographic and socioeconomic indicators on the provincial level. Employing panel data analysis, the results show that Iraqi people are sensitive to violence and it has a very negative effect on vote share of secular parties. Also, terrorism has different degrees of effect on different groups. The Sunni Arabs are the most sensitive group. They change their electoral preference in response to the level of violence. 2 Acknowledgement I would first like to thank my advisor Dr.
    [Show full text]
  • The Coming Turkish- Iranian Competition in Iraq
    UNITeD StateS INSTITUTe of Peace www.usip.org SPeCIAL RePoRT 2301 Constitution Ave., NW • Washington, DC 20037 • 202.457.1700 • fax 202.429.6063 ABOUT THE REPO R T Sean Kane This report reviews the growing competition between Turkey and Iran for influence in Iraq as the U.S. troop withdrawal proceeds. In doing so, it finds an alignment of interests between Baghdad, Ankara, and Washington, D.C., in a strong and stable Iraq fueled by increased hydrocarbon production. Where possible, the United States should therefore encourage The Coming Turkish- Turkish and Iraqi cooperation and economic integration as a key part of its post-2011 strategy for Iraq and the region. This analysis is based on the author’s experiences in Iraq and Iranian Competition reviews of Turkish and Iranian press and foreign policy writing. ABOUT THE AUTHO R in Iraq Sean Kane is the senior program officer for Iraq at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP). He assists in managing the Institute’s Iraq program and field mission in Iraq and serves as the Institute’s primary expert on Iraq and U.S. policy in Iraq. Summary He previously worked for the United Nations Assistance Mission • The two rising powers in the Middle East—Turkey and Iran—are neighbors to Iraq, its for Iraq from 2006 to 2009. He has published on the subjects leading trading partners, and rapidly becoming the most influential external actors inside of Iraqi politics and natural resource negotiations. The author the country as the U.S. troop withdrawal proceeds. would like to thank all of those who commented on and provided feedback on the manuscript and is especially grateful • Although there is concern in Washington about bilateral cooperation between Turkey and to Elliot Hen-Tov for generously sharing his expertise on the Iran, their differing visions for the broader Middle East region are particularly evident in topics addressed in the report.
    [Show full text]
  • Iraq's Civil War, the Sadrists and the Surge
    IRAQ’S CIVIL WAR, THE SADRISTS AND THE SURGE Middle East Report N°72 – 7 February 2008 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS................................................. i I. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 1 II. BAGHDAD’S CIVIL WAR AND THE SADRISTS’ ASCENT................................. 2 A. HOW THE SADRISTS EXPANDED THEIR TERRITORY ...............................................................2 B. NEUTRALISING THE POLICE...................................................................................................4 C. DEALING IN VIOLENCE..........................................................................................................6 III. THE SADRISTS’ REVERSAL OF FORTUNE .......................................................... 8 A. AN INCREASINGLY UNDISCIPLINED MOVEMENT ...................................................................8 B. THE SADRISTS’ TERRITORIAL REDEPLOYMENT...................................................................10 C. ARE THE SADRISTS SHIFTING ALLIANCES?.............................................................................13 D. A CHANGE IN MODUS OPERANDI........................................................................................16 IV. A SUSTAINABLE CEASEFIRE? .............................................................................. 18 V. CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Ba'ath Propaganda During the Iran-Iraq War Jennie Matuschak [email protected]
    Bucknell University Bucknell Digital Commons Honors Theses Student Theses Spring 2019 Nationalism and Multi-Dimensional Identities: Ba'ath Propaganda During the Iran-Iraq War Jennie Matuschak [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.bucknell.edu/honors_theses Part of the International Relations Commons, and the Near and Middle Eastern Studies Commons Recommended Citation Matuschak, Jennie, "Nationalism and Multi-Dimensional Identities: Ba'ath Propaganda During the Iran-Iraq War" (2019). Honors Theses. 486. https://digitalcommons.bucknell.edu/honors_theses/486 This Honors Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Student Theses at Bucknell Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Honors Theses by an authorized administrator of Bucknell Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. iii Acknowledgments My first thanks is to my advisor, Mehmet Döşemeci. Without taking your class my freshman year, I probably would not have become a history major, which has changed my outlook on the world. Time will tell whether this is good or bad, but for now I am appreciative of your guidance. Also, thank you to my second advisor, Beeta Baghoolizadeh, who dealt with draft after draft and provided my thesis with the critiques it needed to stand strongly on its own. Thank you to my friends for your support and loyalty over the past four years, which have pushed me to become the best version of myself. Most importantly, I value the distractions when I needed a break from hanging out with Saddam. Special shout-out to Andrew Raisner for painstakingly reading and editing everything I’ve written, starting from my proposal all the way to the final piece.
    [Show full text]
  • Vichy on the Tigris
    susan watkins Editorial VICHY ON THE TIGRIS His Majesty’s Government and I are in the same boat and must sink or swim together . if you wish me and your policy to succeed, it is folly to damn me permanently in the public eye by making me an obvious puppet. King Faisal I to the British High Commissioner, Mesopotamia, 17 August 1921.1 arely has a passage of powers been so furtive. The ceremony—held two days ahead of schedule, deep within Baghdad’s fortified Green Zone—lasted just ten min- utes, with thirty us and Iraqi officials present. Outside the Rcement stockade, the military realities remain the same: an Occupation force of 160,000 us-led troops, an additional army of commercial secu- rity guards, and jumpy local police units. Before departing, the Coalition Provisional Authority set in place a parallel government structure of Commissioners and Inspectors-General (still referring to themselves as ‘coalition officials’ a week after the supposed dissolution of that body) who, elections notwithstanding, will control Iraq’s chief ministries for the next five years.2 The largest us embassy in the world will dominate Baghdad, with regional ‘hubs’ planned in Mosul, Kirkuk, Hilla and Basra. Most of the $3.2 billion that has been contracted so far is going on the construction of foreign military bases.3 The un has resolved that the country’s oil revenues will continue to be deposited in the us-dominated Development Fund for Iraq, again for the next five years. The newly installed Allawi government will have no authority to reallocate contracts signed by the cpa, largely with foreign companies who will remain above the law of the land.
    [Show full text]
  • Kurdistan Rising? Considerations for Kurds, Their Neighbors, and the Region
    KURDISTAN RISING? CONSIDERATIONS FOR KURDS, THEIR NEIGHBORS, AND THE REGION Michael Rubin AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE Kurdistan Rising? Considerations for Kurds, Their Neighbors, and the Region Michael Rubin June 2016 American Enterprise Institute © 2016 by the American Enterprise Institute. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be used or reproduced in any man- ner whatsoever without permission in writing from the American Enterprise Institute except in the case of brief quotations embodied in news articles, critical articles, or reviews. The views expressed in the publications of the American Enterprise Institute are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the staff, advisory panels, officers, or trustees of AEI. American Enterprise Institute 1150 17th St. NW Washington, DC 20036 www.aei.org. Cover image: Grand Millennium Sualimani Hotel in Sulaymaniyah, Kurdistan, by Diyar Muhammed, Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons. Contents Executive Summary 1 1. Who Are the Kurds? 5 2. Is This Kurdistan’s Moment? 19 3. What Do the Kurds Want? 27 4. What Form of Government Will Kurdistan Embrace? 56 5. Would Kurdistan Have a Viable Economy? 64 6. Would Kurdistan Be a State of Law? 91 7. What Services Would Kurdistan Provide Its Citizens? 101 8. Could Kurdistan Defend Itself Militarily and Diplomatically? 107 9. Does the United States Have a Coherent Kurdistan Policy? 119 Notes 125 Acknowledgments 137 About the Author 139 iii Executive Summary wo decades ago, most US officials would have been hard-pressed Tto place Kurdistan on a map, let alone consider Kurds as allies. Today, Kurds have largely won over Washington.
    [Show full text]
  • Fighting-For-Kurdistan.Pdf
    Fighting for Kurdistan? Assessing the nature and functions of the Peshmerga in Iraq CRU Report Feike Fliervoet Fighting for Kurdistan? Assessing the nature and functions of the Peshmerga in Iraq Feike Fliervoet CRU Report March 2018 March 2018 © Netherlands Institute of International Relations ‘Clingendael’. Cover photo: Peshmerga, Kurdish Army © Flickr / Kurdishstruggle Unauthorized use of any materials violates copyright, trademark and / or other laws. Should a user download material from the website or any other source related to the Netherlands Institute of International Relations ‘Clingendael’, or the Clingendael Institute, for personal or non-commercial use, the user must retain all copyright, trademark or other similar notices contained in the original material or on any copies of this material. Material on the website of the Clingendael Institute may be reproduced or publicly displayed, distributed or used for any public and non-commercial purposes, but only by mentioning the Clingendael Institute as its source. Permission is required to use the logo of the Clingendael Institute. This can be obtained by contacting the Communication desk of the Clingendael Institute ([email protected]). The following web link activities are prohibited by the Clingendael Institute and may present trademark and copyright infringement issues: links that involve unauthorized use of our logo, framing, inline links, or metatags, as well as hyperlinks or a form of link disguising the URL. About the author Feike Fliervoet is a Visiting Research Fellow at Clingendael’s Conflict Research Unit where she contributes to the Levant research programme, a three year long project that seeks to identify the origins and functions of hybrid security arrangements and their influence on state performance and development.
    [Show full text]
  • Steven Isaac “The Ba'th of Syria and Iraq”
    Steven Isaac “The Ba‘th of Syria and Iraq” for The Encyclopedia of Protest and Revolution (forthcoming from Oxford University Press) Three main currents of socialist thought flowed through the Arab world during and after World War II: The Ba‘th party’s version, that of Nasser, and the options promulgated by the region’s various communist parties. None of these can really be considered apart from the others. The history of Arab communists is often a story of their rivalry and occasional cohabitation with other movements, so this article will focus first on the Ba‘th and then on Nasser while telling the story of all three. In addition, the Ba‘th were active in more places than just Syria and Iraq, although those countries saw their most signal successes (and concomitant disappointments). Michel Aflaq, a Sorbonne-educated, Syrian Christian, was one of the two primary founders of the Ba‘th (often transliterated as Baath or Ba‘ath) movement. His exposure to Marx came during his studies in France, and he associated for some time with the communists in Syria after his return there in 1932. He later declared his fascination with communism ended by 1936, but others cite him as still a confirmed party member until 1943. His co-founder, Salah al-Din al-Bitar, likewise went to France for his university education and returned to Syria to be a teacher. Frustrated by France’s inter-war policies, the nationalism of both men came to so influence their attitudes towards the West that even Western socialism became another form of imperialism.
    [Show full text]
  • Iraq: U.S. Regime Change Efforts and Post-Saddam Governance
    Order Code RL31339 CRS Report for Congress Received through the CRS Web Iraq: U.S. Regime Change Efforts and Post-Saddam Governance Updated May 16, 2005 Kenneth Katzman Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division Congressional Research Service ˜ The Library of Congress Iraq: U.S. Regime Change Efforts and Post-Saddam Governance Summary Operation Iraqi Freedom accomplished a long-standing U.S. objective, the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, but replacing his regime with a stable, moderate, democratic political structure has been complicated by a persistent Sunni Arab-led insurgency. The Bush Administration asserts that establishing democracy in Iraq will catalyze the promotion of democracy throughout the Middle East. The desired outcome would also likely prevent Iraq from becoming a sanctuary for terrorists, a key recommendation of the 9/11 Commission report. The Bush Administration asserts that U.S. policy in Iraq is now showing substantial success, demonstrated by January 30, 2005 elections that chose a National Assembly, and progress in building Iraq’s various security forces. The Administration says it expects that the current transition roadmap — including votes on a permanent constitution by October 31, 2005 and for a permanent government by December 15, 2005 — are being implemented. Others believe the insurgency is widespread, as shown by its recent attacks, and that the Iraqi government could not stand on its own were U.S. and allied international forces to withdraw from Iraq. Some U.S. commanders and senior intelligence officials say that some Islamic militants have entered Iraq since Saddam Hussein fell, to fight what they see as a new “jihad” (Islamic war) against the United States.
    [Show full text]
  • Games Without Frontiers: Renegotiating the Boundaries of Power in Iraqi Kurdistan
    GAMES WITHOUT FRONTIERS: RENEGOTIATING THE BOUNDARIES OF POWER IN IRAQI KURDISTAN THE MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE MIKE FLEET AND MEGAN CONNELLY JUNE 2021 WWW.MEI.EDU Photo above: Kurdistan parliament speaker Rewaz Faiq (top C), leads a parliament session in Erbil, the capital of Iraq’s northern autonomous Kurdish region, on May 25, 2021. Photo by SAFIN HAMED/AFP via Getty Images. Introduction Over the past year, intensifying political and economic conflicts between the Kurdistan Region’s two hegemonic parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of The parties’ efforts Kurdistan (PUK), have challenged the legal and institutional order to renegotiate their in which the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) operates. While financial entitlements power has always been concentrated in an exclusive coalition of and the scope of their partisan elites, the KDP and PUK had each tacitly acknowledged administrative control the other’s de facto autonomy over the territories they governed have so far produced independently from the civil war of the 1990s until the reunification no consensus. of the KRG. But a new generation of leadership within the parties, a fraught relationship with the federal government, and a prolonged economic crisis exacerbated by collapsing oil prices and the global pandemic have strained the KDP-PUK relationship to its breaking point. While the KDP has claimed a majoritarian mandate to govern on a reform platform that eliminates consociational entitlements, the PUK has issued an ultimatum: respect local autonomy and 2 A new generation of leadership, a fraught relationship with [Baghdad], and a prolonged economic crisis exacerbated by collapsing oil prices and the global pandemic have strained the KDP-PUK relationship to its breaking point.” restore an equitable division of power within the KRG or it will in consumer demand during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, withdraw from the governing coalition.
    [Show full text]