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Black Sea Security CONTENTS Analytical journal Foreword 2 2 (38) 2019 Focus on: Countering Russia’s Aggression License of the Ministry of Justice of Ukraine THE MARITIME EXPERT PLATFORM KV No. 23053-12893PR ASSOCIATION: FOR URGENT ACTIONS TO DE-OCCUPY CRIMEA AND COUNTER 6 of December 11, 2017 THE OCCUPATION OF THE SEA OF AZOV Publisher – Centre for Global Studies AND THE BLACK SEA “Strategy XXI” (Kyiv) Focus on: Enemy at the Black Sea Theater of Operations Language – Ukrainian and English Yurii Bakai, Anatolii Burgomistrenko, Sergii Gaiduk 14 Underwater Space OF THE UKRAINIAN Contacts: SEA: CHALLENGES AND Threats Centre for Global Studies Strategy XXI Focus on: Enemy at the Black Sea Theater 51 Shchekavytska Str, of. 26, of Operations Kyiv, 04071, Ukraine Sergii Mukhrynskyi THE BLACK SEA FLEET OF THE RUSSIAN 26 Tel: +380 44 425 41 62 Federation: THE SOVIET FLEET BEHIND Web-site: www.geostrategy.org.ua THE PAINTED FACADE E-mail: [email protected] Focus on: Ukrainian Navy Ihor Kabanenko, Andrii Ryzhenko 34 EDITORIAL BOARD: THE Naval FORCES OF UKRAINE: TIME to ACT Mykhailo Gonchar, Editor-in-Chief Focus on: Regional Problems Vitalii Martyniuk, Executive Secretary Nika Chitadze 40 Pavlo Lakiychuk, Deputy Editor ROLE OF THE BLACK SEA AND Baltic REGIONS IN THE WORLD POLITICS Oksana Ishchuk, member of board Focus on: New Views on Old Problems Igor Stukalenko, member of board Andrii Ryzhenko, Bohdan Ustymenko Oksana Lesnyak, Head of Bureau on East Asia THE MONTREUX CONVENTION: 52 GEOGRAPHICAL LIMITS OF Application. Tantely Ratovohery, Head of Bureau on South Asia THE NEW VIEW OF AN OLD PROBLEM Focus on: Russia from inside Members of the editorial board Oleksii Bessarabov Yurii Fedorov 57 and Dmytro Shtyblykov are political prisoners RUSSIA: CRISIS SCENARIOS of the Kremlin. Since 2016 they have been kept in prison by the FSB on the fabricated charges. Focus on: Countering Russia’s Aggression Oleksandr Sukhodolia SANCTIONS: Impacts ON THE RUSSIAN 65 A circulation is 500 copies ENERGY Sector Private Enterpriser Lanovenko O.O., Kyiv, 1 Hmyri Borysa Str. Focus on: Crimean dossier Phone: +380 44 441-82-44 Borys Babin Law ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES 74 When using materials, OF UKRAINE AND Occupation OF CRIMEA reference to the Black Sea Security journal is obligatory. Focus on: Moldova Editorial board does not necessarily share Oksana Ishchuk, Igor Stukalenko the views of the authors. 81 Responsibility for the contents of the articles rests Moldova'S ‘ENERGY SPLIT’: with their authors. TO EU OR EAEU? Focus on: International maritime organizations ISSN 2616-9274 Bohdan Ustymenko Regulatory Impact OF International MARITIME Organizations ON UKRAINE'S 89 PROVISION OF Navigation AND HYDROGRAPHIC AIDS FOR MARITIME TRAFFIC FOREWORD The Kremlin's New Course: ons, is a manifestation of the Kremlin's readiness To Test Europe with Bayonets! to an escalation of international tension to force Europe to abandon the American nuclear shield This issue of the journal is the 10th since its publi- and create an additional deterrent effect for coun- cation was renewed in the summer of 2017 and the tries that seek NATO's membership or a security 38th since the Nomos Centre had been founded in umbrella from the United States – such as Ukraine Sevastopol in 2005. Over three-and-a-half years, and Georgia. two of the members of the Editorial Board, Olek- siy Bessarabov and Dmytro Shtyblykov are kept in In the past Russia also pointed out to the Europe- the Russian prison on falsified by the Federal Se- ans that deployment of American missile defense curity Service "saboteurs' case." But we continue system automatically makes it the targets for Rus- publishing journal and studying Black Sea secu- sian nuclear weapons. Now we are almost talking rity agenda. In addition, at the joint initiative of the about the fact that deployment of "general-purpose Black Sea Institute for Strategic Studies, the Black groups with the means of nuclear delivery at con- Sea News Agency and a number of experts on the tiguous with the Russian Federation and its allies Black Sea issues, Centre for Global Studies Strat- territories and adjacent offshore," almost gives egy XXI became the founder of the Marine Expert carte Blanche for Kremlin's pre-emptive use of Platform – an informal site for small brainstorms tactical nuclear weapons to prevent the emer- on regional issues. The first document adopted by gence of a strategic threat at Russia's borders. For the Platform – “The Urgent Actions on Crimea’s example, with the presence on the airfields of the De-Occupation and Resistance to the Occupation Baltic States of rotating aircraft of Western NATO of the Azov and Black Seas.” members that perform air patrols in the South- Eastern sector of the Baltic region, Russia will In general, this issue of the magazine is devoted clearly consider a threat of nuclear weapons' use. to mainly maritime and naval affairs. Military and Russian propaganda media, even before the adop- political tension in the Azov, Black and Mediter- tion of Putin's "Fundamentals..." distributed the ranean Seas not only continues but grows. The estimates of pro-Kremlin experts under the head- tension generator is Russia, which openly dem- lines "NATO aircraft in Estonia can carry nuclear onstrates its military dominance in the Azov and bombs." The basic argument of such publications Black Sea basin and entered into a new confronta- is that there is only a hundred and fifty kilome- tion with Turkey. To the Syrian military attacks of ters, 10-15-minutes flight in subsonic mode from the parties, the Libyan ones have been added. the border of Estonia to Saint Petersburg. There- fore, they say, it is possible to resort to preventive The crushing defeats that Turkish troops inflicted measures to beforehand reduce risks and prevent on the Russian expeditionary unit of the Armed them from escalating into the danger of a strike Forces, which is being disguised as the Wagner's on Russia, whether with nuclear or high-precision private military company in Syria and Libya, us- weapons with conventional equipment. ing modern technology for combat operations with the use of drones, cause additional aggression of The situation is similar in the Black Sea region. the Putin regime. The Kremlin has finally formed Upgraded, located in the depths of Romania (De- an irrepressible desire to limit the use of nuclear veselu base), the American Aegis Ashore site of weapons to demonstrate the power and advan- the AMDS is viewed by Moscow as a redesigned tages of Russia against the backdrop of economic strike complex for Tomahawk land attack missiles failure, public discontent and political turbulence used for striking Russia. A year ago, through the within the Federation. The pompous militaristic Russian media, the Kremlin warned the Roma- show-parade on June 24 once again demonstrated nians: "the deployment of a modernized facility the Kremlin's unquenchable thirst for war. in Deveselu turns this region of the country into a possible object of the first nuclear strike..." Alleg- Signed by the Russian President Vladimir Putin edly, the distance from Deveselu to the main naval on June 2, 2020, the Fundamentals of Russia’s base of the Russian Federation at the Black Sea, in Nuclear Deterrence State Policy, which effectively Sevastopol is less than 800 km and therefore it will levels the threshold for the use of nuclear weap- act proactively. And now, when Bucharest, after 2 FOREWORD such messages, has directly pointed to Russia as a strike with a power comparable to the warhead threat to Romania's national security, Moscow will used. Moreover, the US passed into service mis- already "legally" identify Deveselu and the coun- siles with W76-2 low-yield power nuclear war- try's key military infrastructure facilities as targets heads. In February this year, training was conduct- for a pre-emptive nuclear strike of limited power. ed in the state of Nebraska, which simulated the crisis caused by a Russian limited nuclear strike Thus, Putin's new "Fundamentals ..." practically on a target in Europe and the limited American re- legalize the Kremlin's aggressive intentions, tradi- sponse. In other words, a massive nuclear strike on tionally disguised by the needs of defense against the territory of the Russian Federation and a global the background of a propaganda thesis about the Armageddon are not envisaged by Russia. approach of NATO's infrastructure to Russia's borders and the growth of its aggressiveness. In Based on these considerations, behind the Krem- fact, the Russian Federation sends a message to the lin walls, they believe a low-power nuclear strike countries of Central and Eastern Europe, primarily somewhere on the route of Turkish troop’s move- the Baltic States, Poland, Romania and Ukraine, ment in the Libyan Desert will not lead to a nuclear that they are real targets for Russian nuclear strike by the United States against Russia. There- weapons. fore, under certain circumstances and on a certain occasion, they can try, and this will practically Certainly, it is all blamed on the United States, demonstrate the Russian Federation's determina- which destroyed – according to the Kremlin's logic tion to use nuclear weapons in other cases as well. – the entire global system of IRNFT and START, However, back in 2018, the then US Secretary of developed and made operational the latest B61-12 Defense James Mathis quite clearly expressed an nuclear bomb. This air bomb has been chosen by assessment of such approaches: "Do not believe Russian military experts as an excuse for Moscow that there is such a thing as non-strategic nuclear to counter the "aggressive intentions of the United weapons. Any nuclear weapon used at any time States." According to Russian estimates, the B61- changes the rules of a strategic game." It seems that 12 increases the threat of nuclear war.

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