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“Hottest Year on Record” in Australia

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“Hottest Year on Record” in Australia ALBERT PARKER, CLIFFORD D. OLLIER QUAESTIONES GEOGRAPHICAE 36(1) • 2017 POLEMIC PAPER1 DISCUSSION OF THE “HOTTEST YEAR ON RECORD” IN AUSTRALIA ALBERT PARKER1, CLIFFORD D. OLLIER2 1School of Engineering and Physical Science, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia 2School of Earth and Environment, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, Australia Manuscript received: October 11, 2016 Revised version: February 03, 2017 PARKER, A., OLLIER, C.D., 2017. Discussion of the “hottest year on record” in Australia. Quaestiones Geographicae 36(1), Bogucki Wydawnictwo Naukowe, Poznań, pp. 79–91, 7 figs, 1 table. ABSTRACT: The global temperature trends provided by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology are artificially exaggerated due to subjective and unidirectional adjustments of recorded values. The present paper aims to promote the use of the raw stations’ data corrected only for urban heat island formation. The longer temperature records of Australia exhibit significant oscillations with a strong quasi-60 years’ signature of downward phases 1880 to 1910, 1940 to 1970 and 2000 to present, and upwards phases 1910 to 1940 and 1970 to 2000. A longer oscillation with downward phase until 1910 and an upwards phase afterwards is also detected. The warming since 1910 occurred at a nearly constant rate. Over the full length of the long Australian records since the end of the 1800s, there is no sign of warming or increased occur- rence of extreme events. The monthly highest and mean maximum temperatures do not exhibit any positive trend. The differences between monthly highest and lowest, or monthly mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures, are all reducing because of urban heat island formation. KEY WORDS: tem perature warming, urban heat island, Australia, extreme events Corresponding author: [email protected] Introduction1 Island, Rutherglen, Newcastle, Bathurst, Burke, Amberley and Deniliquin and many others. In Raw temperature data of historical stations not the case of historical stations with large urban affected by large urban heat islands show temper- heat islands, as for example Melbourne, Sydney, atures have not warmed since the end of the 1800s Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane the minimum tem- (Boretti 2013, Parker 2013a, b, Watts 2013, JoNova peratures have warmed significantly more than 2014, Parker 2014a, b, Parker, Ollier 2015a, b, c, the maximum temperatures. The warming van- Parker 2016, Marohasy 2017, WAclimate 2017). ishes moving to the country side, as for example The list of the non-warming stations includes moving from Melbourne to Ballarat or other un- Alice Spring, Darwin, Cape Otway, Wilsons affected locations of regional Victoria as shown Promontory, Echuca, Horsham, Orbost, Gabo by Parker (2013b). Technicalities such as the installation of Stevenson screens and more recently the installa- 1 Editors and Editorial Board are not responsible for the content of the paper and the personal views of the au- tion of automatic weather stations using thermis- thors. tors rather than mercury or alcohol thermometers © 2017 Author(s) This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs license doi: 10.1515/ quageo-2017-0006 ISSN 0137-477X 80 ALBERT PARKER, Clifford D. OLLIER affect the temperature readings for the average. Parker (2014b) presents the raw temperature Thermistors are much more sensitive to temper- data measured in Alice Spring and the latest ature changes and suggest larger fluctuations. ACORN reconstruction. Alice Spring is not con- Stevenson screens shield thermometer from di- sidered in the present analysis. The time window rect heat radiation and may affect the maximum end of the 1800s to present is actually covered not temperatures. Other factors affecting the temper- by one single station but by two stations, with a ature measurements include smaller urban heat change of site from the Post Office to the Airport island effect, change of land use, more localised location. The significant overlapping in between effects linked to heat release and storage process- the two records does not pose any issue in deriv- es close to the thermometer location (such as the ing a composite record as shown in Boretti (2013) presence of an air conditioning unit, a car park, and Parker (2014b). The reconstructed ACORN a glass tram stop or heavy traffic), and air mo- and the raw measured minimum and maximum tion due to buildings. Changes of location of the temperatures do not agree. The time window of measuring equipment as Town to Airport or sim- the reconstructed data magnifies the warming. ple relocation of the thermometer will also affect The reconstructed data also increase the warm- the measurements. ing by making lower the temperatures of the The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) past. The measured values show no warming at is well known for its continuous adjustments of all since 1888, and a much smaller warming of the recorded values of temperatures to produce 0.46 and 1.1°C/century of minimum and maxi- warming trends resembling those required to mum temperatures since 1910. Legitimate ho- support the concept of global warming caused by mogenizations of the Alice Spring record are not anthropogenic carbon dioxide emission. The pin- easy, as there are no surrounding stations to av- nacle of these administrative corrections has been erage with. The supporting data of Parker (2014b) the definition of the latest Australian Climate were downloaded from Australian Government Observations Reference Network – Surface Air Bureau of Meteorology (BOM 2014a, b). Climate Temperature (ACORN-SAT) data set. This ex- Data Online (CDO) provides access to a range of ercise has permitted the BOM to magnify the statistics, recent weather observations and cli- warming trends by reducing the temperatures mate data from the Australian Data Archive for of the past and to magnify the frequency of ex- Meteorology (ADAM), a database which holds treme events by increasing the summer temper- weather observations dating back to the mid- atures while reducing the winter temperatures. 1800s for some sites. The climate change trends The warming trend is computed from the time computed by the Bureau of Meteorology are series of the average temperatures, the occur- based on selected subsets of data that have been rence of extreme events is somehow linked to the changed many times in the recent years with raw time series of the difference between maximum temperature measurements mostly arbitrarily and minimum temperatures. Reducing the tem- corrected or neglected. Analysis of the raw tem- peratures of the past increases the warming, and perature data has always returned patterns com- increases the difference between maximum and pletely different from those claimed by the BOM minimum temperatures for same average tem- in their state-of-the-climate reports. perature increases. Extreme events are become Kenskingdom (2014) presents the mysterious more frequent. The engineered warming has correction for Rutherglen, a rare long rural tem- been shown in peer review papers (Boretti 2013, perature record where measurements had come Parker 2013a, b, Parker 2014a, b, Parker, Ollier from the same place since 1913. Rutherglen was 2015a, b, c, Parker 2016) and blogs. The subtler one of the temperature recording stations that differential seasonal warming has been shown was subject to large adjustments which turned so far only in the blog (JoNova 2014) in which a slight cooling trend into a strongly warming Ken Stewart compared the ACORN and the one. The official notes showed that the site did Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) not move and was a continuous record. Retired temperature data set to find that Australian sum- scientists who worked at times at Rutherglen mer maximums have been warmed by 200% with confirm the official thermometer had not moved. the ACORN data. The original cooling trend of -0.35°C/century DISCUSSION OF THE “HOTTEST YEAR on RECORD” IN AUSTRALIA 81 was transformed into a +1.73°C/century warm- the heat waves of Australia are likewise mostly ing after homogenization justified by the BOM as an artefact of BOM adjustments. the result of an unrecorded shift. The present paper shows that the use of raw JoNova (2014) presents the result of the analy- data provides a superior estimate of the actu- sis performed by Ken Stewart of the adjustments al warming trends than the unnaturally exag- used to create the all-new ACORN dataset com- gerated global temperature trends provided by pared with the other BOM dataset called AWAP. the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. This su- Since summer maxima are the ones used to gen- perior estimate shows the repeated claims that erate the most headlines in Australia, the trend almost every year is the hottest year on record in average summer maximums has been tripled are not trustworthy. The warming in the world by adjustments. Ken Stewart splits the data into top net sequestering country for carbon dioxide, months, and compares the trends in maxima in Australia (Parker, Ollier 2015d) is conclusively the AWAP and ACORN datasets, across the en- substantially overrated. tire nation. Most of the adjustments happen to data from the hottest months of the year, October to March. Even though the measured maxima Data and methods in February and March are possibly cooler now than they were in the early 1900s, they have been The conclusions of Parker, Ollier (2015b) and adjusted to show warming trends. Adjustments Ken Stewart are further supported here by the grossly exaggerate monthly and seasonal warm- analysis of the time series recorded in the 30 sta- ing. The supporting data was downloaded from tions of longest record included in the BOM list Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology of long temperature records (BOM 2009). The sup- (BOM 2014b, c). porting data were downloaded from Australian Watts (2013) presents Australian summer Government Bureau of Meteorology (BOM 2014a). (December to February) surface air temperatures Considering the presence of a quasi-60 years’ over the satellite era.
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