An Investigation of Extreme Heatwave Events and Their Effects on Building and Infrastructure Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper #9
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An investigation of extreme heatwave events and their effects on building and infrastructure Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper #9 Minh Nguyen, Xiaoming Wang and Dong Chen National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry Title: An investigation of extreme heatwave events and their effects on building and infrastructure / Minh Nguyen ... [et al.]. ISBN: 978-0-643-10633-8 (pdf) Series: CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship working paper series; 9. Other Authors/ Xiaoming, Wang. Contributors: Dong Chen. Climate Adaptation Flagship. Enquiries Enquiries regarding this document should be addressed to: Dr Xiaoming Wang Urban System Program, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems PO Box 56, Graham Road, Highett, VIC 3190, Australia [email protected] Dr Minh Nguyen Urban Water System Engineering Program, CSIRO Land & Water PO Box 56, Graham Road, Highett, VIC 3190, Australia [email protected] Enquiries about the Climate Adaptation Flagship or the Working Paper series should be addressed to: Working Paper Coordinator CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship [email protected] Citation This document can be cited as: Nguyen M., Wang X. and Chen D. (2011). An investigation of extreme heatwave events and their effects on building and infrastructure. CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working paper No. 9. http://www.csiro.au/resources/CAF-working-papers.html ii The Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper series The CSIRO Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship has been created to address the urgent national challenge of enabling Australia to adapt more effectively to the impacts of climate change and variability. This working paper series aims to: • provide a quick and simple avenue to disseminate high-quality original research, based on work in progress • generate discussion by distributing work for comment prior to formal publication. The series is open to researchers working with the Climate Adaptation Flagship on any topic relevant to the Flagship’s goals and scope. Copies of Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Papers can be downloaded at: www.csiro.au/resources/CAF-working-papers CSIRO initiated the National Research Flagships to provide science-based solutions in response to Australia’s major research challenges and opportunities. The ten Flagships form multidisciplinary teams with industry and the research community to deliver impact and benefits for Australia. Copyright and Disclaimer © 2010 CSIRO To the extent permitted by law, all rights are reserved and no part of this publication covered by copyright may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means except with the written permission of CSIRO. Important Disclaimer CSIRO advises that the information contained in this publication comprises general statements based on scientific research. The reader is advised and needs to be aware that such information may be incomplete or unable to be used in any specific situation. No reliance or actions must therefore be made on that information without seeking prior expert professional, scientific and technical advice. To the extent permitted by law, CSIRO (including its employees and consultants) excludes all liability to any person for any consequences, including but not limited to all losses, damages, costs, expenses and any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly from using this publication (in part or in whole) and any information or material contained in it. iii iv Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................. 1 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................. 2 1.1 Extreme heatwave events – hot days and hot spells ................................................ 2 1.2 Data descriptions ...................................................................................................... 4 2. EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS ACROSS AUSTRALIA .................................. 6 2.1 Hot days .................................................................................................................... 6 2.1.1 Data processing for number of hot days in each year .......................................... 6 2.1.2 Probabilistic modelling .......................................................................................... 6 2.1.3 Average recurrence interval .................................................................................. 7 2.2 Hot spells ................................................................................................................ 10 2.2.1 Data processing and modelling .......................................................................... 10 2.2.2 Probabilistic modelling ........................................................................................ 11 2.2.3 Average recurrence interval ................................................................................ 13 3. OBSERVED CHANGES IN THE NUMBER OF EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS ............................................................................................................ 17 3.1 Observed changes in Melbourne ............................................................................ 17 3.1.1 Changes in the yearly number of hot days ......................................................... 17 3.1.2 Changes in the yearly number of hot spells ........................................................ 18 3.2 Analysis for stations with long records .................................................................... 20 4. EFFECTS OF EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS .............................................. 23 4.1 Effects of hot spells on cooling energy requirement ............................................... 23 4.2 A scenario analysis using the Melbourne heatwave event in January – February 2009 ........................................................................................................................ 26 4.3 A sensitivity check of the effects of insulation on building thermal performance .... 28 4.4 Some other effects of extreme heatwave events ................................................... 31 4.4.1 Electric power losses in transmission and distribution networks due to temperature increases ........................................................................................ 31 4.4.2 Mechanical thermal stress and buckling in steel structures................................ 32 5. CONCLUDING REMARKS ............................................................................... 38 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................... 39 Appendix A – Probabilistic model parameters for yearly number of hot days .... 41 Appendix B – Probabilistic model parameters for yearly Total number of hot spells ................................................................................................................ 50 Appendix C – Probabilistic model Fitting and Return Period for yearly Total number of hot spells in South East QueenSland .......................................... 67 Appendix D – Contour Frequency Maps of the yearly number of hot Days ......... 85 Appendix E – Contour Frequency Maps of the yearly Total number of hot Spells .......................................................................................................................... 89 v E.1 Hot Spells lasting 1 day or more with Tmax ≥ 35°C ................................................ 90 E.2 Hot spells lasting 2 days or more with Tmax ≥ 35°C .............................................. 92 E.3 Hot Spells lasting 1 day or more with Tmax ≥ 40°C ................................................ 94 E.4 Hot spells lasting 2 days or more with Tmax ≥ 40°C .............................................. 96 Appendix F – Observed Changes in Number of Extreme Heatwave events at Major Cities ...................................................................................................... 98 F.1 Hobart (Ellerslie Rd) Station .................................................................................... 98 F.2 Sydney (Observatory Hill) Station ......................................................................... 100 F.3 Brisbane Regional Office Station .......................................................................... 102 F.4 Adelaide (West Terrace) Station ........................................................................... 104 F.5 Perth Regional Office Station ................................................................................ 106 Appendix G – Observed Changing Trends in Number of Extreme Heatwave events at Locations with Long Record of More Than 90 Years ................. 108 Appendix H – House 1 Base: Plan and Construction Details .............................. 112 vi List of Figures Figure 1.1: Illustration of hot days and hot spells with Tmax ≥ 40°C ............................................. 3 Figure 1.2: Illustration of hot days and hot spells with Tmax ≥ 35°C ............................................. 3 Figure 1.3: Temperature record length versus number of stations ............................................... 4 Figure 1.4: Location of 548 BOM stations having record period more than 30 years ................... 5 Figure 2.1: Number of hot days with Tmax ≥ 30°C counted every year at Melbourne Regional Station .................................................................................................................................... 6 Figure 2.2: