Wider B&NES Business Plan June 2006
\\SETH\Shared$\Planning Policy\LDF\Evidence Base\1 - GENERAL\Visioning Work\Vision for B&NES\E&Y Wider B&NES Business Plan Final Business Plan Report v6.doc Solutions in Regional Development
Contents
Section Page
1 Executive Summary 1
2 Introduction, Scope, Methodology and Overall Approach 15
3 Regional Spatial Strategy 19
4 SWOT 28
5 Research – Economic 36
6 Research - Retail 61
7 Research - Housing 83
8 Research - Transport 124
9 Analysis – Keynsham 155
10 Analysis – Midsomer Norton, Radstock, Paulton & Peasedown St. John 164
11 Analysis – Bath Suburbs 172
12 Analysis – Rural Areas 175
13 Spatial Interpretation 177
14 Physical Reconciliation 182
15 Conclusions 188
16 Links to the Bath Business Plan 194
17 Recommendations and Next Steps 197
\\SETH\Shared$\Planning Policy\LDF\Evidence Base\1 - GENERAL\Visioning Work\Vision for B&NES\E&Y Wider B&NES Business Plan Final Business Plan Report v6.doc Solutions in Regional Development Section 1
Executive Summary
1.1 Introduction Bath and North East Somerset (B&NES) is one of the most attractive areas in the UK, offering a combination of the City of Bath with World Heritage Site status; attractive towns and villages; as well as rolling countryside. Much of this countryside is designated as greenbelt but also includes a number of Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty. Perhaps unsurprisingly therefore, the area has become a sought after residential location making B&NES one of the ten most expensive housing Authorities in the UK. It is however impossible to consider B&NES as a single uniform area. Housing pressure is at its greatest in the City of Bath. Elsewhere greenbelt restricts development across much of the Local Authority whilst settlements to the West are increasingly influenced by the growth of Bristol. Pressure on land is least prevalent in the South of the Authority but here there are challenges relating to the provision of local employment. The strength of the housing market and the overall character of the area results in a number of tensions. A resident population requires employment opportunities and the provision of services. Any of the changes in housing provision and employment also impact on transport needs. Essentially these tensions relate to the economic future and use of land across B&NES. This document seeks to address these tensions.
1.2 Context In recent years there have been large scale changes to the frameworks which help determine regional development. The decisions concerning future economic direction; transport requirements; and overall land use are increasingly undertaken at a regional level through the creation of a number of interlocking strategies: ▪ Regional Economic Strategy ▪ Regional Spatial Strategy ▪ Regional Transport Strategy Prior to these changes in strategic approach, the Local Authority was responsible for establishing a Local Plan which was the statutory planning document for the area. Despite all the changes at the regional level, the principal requirement placed upon the Local Authority remains the requirement to produce a Local Development Document. This document sets out detailed land use categories for the Local Authority. B&NES, however, has taken a more far-sighted and proactive approach in its response to these new frameworks of regional development. B&NES has worked with Ernst & Young to determine a long term vision for the Local Authority which recognises the future direction of the overall region. This approach provides clarity for the development of B&NES; allows opportunities to be pursued more proactively; and ensures that any constraints have been identified at an early stage. By providing a considered overall direction, the vision provides a framework against which proposed developments may be considered and prioritised.
1 Solutions in Regional Development Section 1
Executive Summary
This document considers the area of NE Somerset outside of the City of Bath. As such the document specifically considers the towns of Keynsham, Midsomer Norton and Radstock as well as the broader rural communities and the suburbs of Bath. The document examines the current socio-economic position of the area and provides an analysis in terms of future threats and opportunities before making a number of recommendations. The analysis is presented in terms of a detailed assessment and a spatial outcome. In addition a financial model has been prepared for the internal use of the Council. The overall work therefore represents a Business Plan for the wider B&NES area. This work follows on from a similar document prepared for the City of Bath in 2005 (Bath Business Plan). Some of the findings of the Bath Business Plan are combined with this document in later chapters to provide an overarching and cohesive vision.
1.3 Current Situation and Market Trends The Business Plan for the Wider B&NES Area inevitably focuses on those areas in need of improvement and draws attention to some of the differences between the various areas of the Authority. There are however many characteristics of the Authority which are worthy of celebration and in some cases, it has been the preoccupation of certain communities on their differences rather than their broad similarities, which have created an Authority which has struggled to address some of the areas of greatest need. One of the reasons for the differences between the communities within B&NES is that each of the larger settlements lie on the boundary of the Local Authority and are influenced by different urban areas. This is somewhat unusual for a City Authority where all the settlements usually have a direct functional relationship with the Primary Urban Area. In B&NES there are a number of suburban areas and villages influenced primarily by Bath; but Radstock and Midsomer Norton are influenced not only by Bath but also partly by Frome, Trowbridge and Bristol; whilst Keynsham is strongly influenced by Bristol. This is illustrated below:
Source: David Lock Associates
2 Solutions in Regional Development Section 1
Executive Summary
Map of B&NES Area
Keynsham Keynsham
Bath Bath
Radstock Midsomer Radstock NortonMidsomer Norton
Pattern of Development
Source: David Lock Associates
Each of the areas of the Authority is now considered in turn.
3 Solutions in Regional Development Section 1
Executive Summary
Keynsham Keynsham is a town of opportunity. Despite its proximity to Bristol, the town retains a distinct form and is surrounded by attractive greenbelt. The town centre has attractive parkland, leisure facilities and some river frontage whilst neighbouring Saltford has a marina and associated river uses. Transport provision in the town is reasonable with a bi-pass for the town (A4) which links into the Bristol ring road and then on to the M32/M4. The town is well connected by bus and has a, albeit infrequent, heavy rail service to Bristol, Bath and beyond. The town is at virtually full employment although there is a large amount of out-commuting to Bristol and also Bath. On the edge of Keynsham, Cadbury has occupied its own campus style development since the 1920s and remains the largest private sector employer in the town. In addition to these attributes, the town provides high quality housing, community activities and schooling and has a low crime rate. Overall, therefore, there is much to commend Keynsham as a high quality residential area or as a location for business and yet the town is not recognised as an aspiration place. The principal reason for this is the nature of the town centre. The town centre is linear in form with a large number of retail units, but much of the High Street is dated in appearance. At the centre is the Town Hall and its associated retail parade. This development is unattractive, somewhat run down and its central position results in a disproportionate impact on the whole. The overall character of the High Street is also somewhat price conscious but has a number of independent retailers. This character has been influenced by the demographic of Keynsham, which is elderly in nature. In fact Keynsham has a demographic structure which is comparable to the retirement locations of Bournemouth or Torbay. Retail use in Keynsham is consequently a daily but low spend activity. The priorities for Keynsham within this report therefore relate primarily to the town centre.
Midsomer Norton & Radstock Midsomer Norton; Radstock and the associated settlements of Paulton and Peasedown St. John face more challenges that the other areas of B&NES. They each have distinct centres but are sufficiently close together to result in competition between retail activity and have some shared functions. Independently, the towns are of insufficient scale to be recognised at a Regional level and are therefore broadly over-looked in the various regional strategy documents. The towns were former mining settlements working the North Somerset coalfield and have since developed a strong paper, packaging and printing sector. The settlements are rather over dependent on this sector however and in recent months one of the largest companies, Polestar, has moved out of the area. No doubt related to the industrial history of the towns, the average wage levels are low in comparison with the remainder of B&NES. The ability to shift this position in the short term
4 Solutions in Regional Development Section 1
Executive Summary
will however be affected by the low skill attainment within the settlements. Whilst education provision has improved within recent years, the conundrum of a limited variety of employment; low skills attainment; and low wages is a problem and is particularly entrenched in some parts of the community. Overall it is manifested through the price conscious high street at Midsomer Norton, a decline in retail activity in Radstock and the lowest house prices in B&NES. The attraction of new employment is hampered by the relative isolation of the area. Transport links are limited to single carriageway roads resulting in slow peak time travel to Bath and Bristol and limited access to the motorways. The difficulties may be exaggerated by the apparent political discord between Bath and Midsomer Norton & Radstock. The challenges facing the area are no different to those facing numerous market towns across the UK and on a positive note the area remains at close to full employment and is recognised as providing a high quality residential environment with good access to open space. Midsomer Norton has a clear role as the District Centre and in recent years has attracted a number of National multiple retailers; Paulton and Peasedown St. John have employment land available although the land at Paulton is the result of a recent printing closure. Radstock meanwhile has a less clear function but does have a developing heritage and arts offer within an attractive town centre which is otherwise dominated by the local Co operative Society retail units (Radco and their separate Homewares unit). The primary objective for this area of B&NES is to generate greater employment opportunities and this will require the focus of all the agencies concerned.
Rural Areas It is difficult to generalise about the rural areas of the Authority. On the whole they provide high quality housing for commuters to the urban centres, although there remains an agricultural base some of which provides local produce and also helps to maintain the character of the rural communities. In common with the rest of the UK, there is pressure on the provision of services to the rural centres and in some cases shops are closing and public transport links are limited. This is creating further momentum in the shift in function of the rural areas towards predominantly commuter based communities. This shift is also driving up the price of housing and there is a real risk that within a generation the rural communities of B&NES will simply become desirable, but essentially sterile commuter villages. Social exclusion for the poorly paid or immobile is a significant issue in the rural villages.
Bath Suburbs There is tremendous pressure on land use in Bath created by economic growth; geography; and the tightly drawn greenbelt. Commuting from the outlying areas creates traffic congestion at peak times and some ‘rat running’ through residential areas. Perhaps more importantly, the convergence of the A4/A36/A46 forces HGV movements across the City creating road safety; pollution; and wider environmental issues.
5 Solutions in Regional Development Section 1
Executive Summary
Across the Bath suburbs there are a number of areas of transition. Pressure on land use is threatening to displace businesses undertaking the local and sub-regional provision of services. These businesses are typically based along the radial routes such as the Lower Bristol Road, Upper Bristol Road, London Road and Wellsway. There is a need to identify alternative accommodation opportunities for local businesses and workshop space for those businesses under pressure. Nor are the Bath suburbs homogenous in nature. The City has some areas of very high quality, high value and low density housing, but similarly there are areas of lower quality residential dwellings where there is a high density of development. In areas such as London Road and Twerton there are significant social needs and pressure on the provision of the community services. Further development at Bath Western Riverside, Twerton and to the South of the City may increase the pressure on these services. Additionally, in addressing the need to increase the amount of housing and the density of development in Bath, it must be recognised that there will remain a requirement for the provision of leisure and further green space. There are also local issues to resolve such as the provision of convenience retail to relieve pressure on journeys into the City Centre especially if the urban area is extended into the greenbelt and into the South of Bath (see below). There is a pressure for an additional large scale grocery store within the Southern Bath suburbs.
1.4 Regional Spatial Strategy In order for any Business Plan to address the issues raised, there is a need for it to be achievable against the principles and findings of the Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS). Although currently at draft stage (in June 2006) the over-riding principle within the RSS is a need for future development to be sustainable. The RSS expects economic growth and the pressure for further housing in the sub-region of the West of England to continue. The RSS argues that the economic growth for the South West is likely to take place within the Principal Urban Areas (PUAs) which include Bath, but will be limited in the other towns within B&NES. Given the expected economic growth of Bath, the RSS also states that most of the housing required should also be developed within the City of Bath. Development in this manner will limit growth in commuting which the RSS sees as unsustainable. This position is reinforced by an assertion that in order to supply the required housing, it is better to extend Bath into the greenbelt rather than jump the greenbelt and extend housing in the existing settlements of Midsomer Norton, Radstock or Keynsham. The RSS then makes provision for the modest development of other towns within B&NES but states that this development should be in a manner in keeping with the economic importance and scale of employment opportunities within those towns. This policy is intended to limit damaging outbound commuting. Finally the RSS seeks to limit rural development except to fulfil any limited requirements of existing local enterprise; or pressing housing needs for the rural communities themselves. To put this into context for B&NES, the most significant aspects of the RSS are the apparent need to extend the urban area into the greenbelt in order to meet the aggressive housing
6 Solutions in Regional Development Section 1
Executive Summary
projections of the RSS; and the limitation on future development within Midsomer Norton & Radstock unless more employment opportunities can be developed.
1.5 Conclusions This Business Plan provides a solution in keeping with the principles of the RSS (although the growth projections used within the document appear to be aggressive and there is no clear calculation provided which translates the economic growth forecasts into housing need). With this in mind, there appears to be no immediate requirement for Bath to plan to develop into the greenbelt and there are a number of other development opportunities which can take place prior to any requirement to develop the greenbelt. By undertaking development in this manner, it is hoped to preserve the boundary of the greenbelt until the validity of the aggressive RSS growth forecasts are clearer. Conclusions for each area of B&NES are set out in turn.
Keynsham
One interpretation of development potential of Keynsham. - Source: David Lock Associates
The vision is for Keynsham to be developed into an aspirational residential town. As a well defined settlement between the growing Cities of Bristol and Bath, Keynsham will continue to serve a function as a commuter town but there are sufficient opportunities to allocate and redevelop employment land to ensure that any further residential development can be balanced with employment growth. It is important to ensure that Keynsham reinforces its current employment base as part of this strategy. The town has a strong element of out-commuting; and it is the ageing population
7 Solutions in Regional Development Section 1
Executive Summary
which currently supports the High Street. Without further employment opportunity within the town there is a risk that the vibrancy of the centre will diminish as the demographic shifts. The position of the town between Bath and Bristol also results in the retail function of Keynsham being forced to compete with the larger conurbations. As a result it is important that Keynsham remains extremely accessible for shopping visits with cheap and available car- parking and retains its independent and differentiated offer. There is the opportunity to further differentiate the offer by increasing the prominence of the Fair Trade status and the farmers’ market. The main priority in the development of Keynsham must be a focus on the town centre. The decaying linear High Street currently has a strongly detrimental impact on the overall perception of the town. At the centre of the High Street is the unattractive Town Hall development which includes a parade of shops, a library, offices and a car park. This development is owned by B&NES and the majority of leases on the facility are nearing expiry. As a result, there is a tremendous opportunity for B&NES to completely remodel the office and retail content in a more attractive manner that will improve the overall facilities on offer. Any planning gain contributions gained from the Town Hall redevelopment could be utilised to reduce the impact of traffic on the High Street and remodel the streetscape with planting and road calming measures. It is also suggested that there is a common bus terminus within the town which could be located along Ashton Way. As part of the plans for the town centre, the Charlton Road site is being marketed by B&NES as a location for a grocery multiple development. This Business Plan recognises that there is some leakage of retail expenditure from the town, but the development of a large food store in Charlton Road is not seen as offering anything to encourage further footfall along the High Street. The Town Hall re-development and the existing Somerfield store offer the best potential for an improved foodstore offer. It is therefore proposed that Charlton Road is redeveloped for a mix of office and residential bringing more vibrancy into the town centre. Finally, the southern end of the town centre is dominated by the Riverside office development which is partially occupied by B&NES and partially vacant. B&NES has an aspiration to vacate these offices as part of their office rationalisation. Such a move will allow a redevelopment of the offices. The site configuration favours a mix of commercial and residential space and the commercial space will be important in continuing to generate weekday footfall for the town centre. Outside of the town centre there are some further opportunities to increase the provision of housing and create employment opportunities. These essentially create a balance between housing growth and employment and preserve the overall character of the town. Most importantly, the greenbelt between the town and both Bristol and Saltford should be preserved. Available opportunities are therefore essentially employment land to the North of the railway line and residential opportunities to the South of the town.
8 Solutions in Regional Development Section 1
Executive Summary
Midsomer Norton & Radstock
One interpretation of development potential of Midsomer Norton & Radstock. - Source: David Lock Associates
Midsomer Norton and Radstock are strongly developed communities in the south of the Authority but suffer from low skill levels and low average wages. The key to breaking this cycle of relatively poor economic performance is to attract greater levels of employment with a wider diversity of job opportunities. In fact in the longer term, current planning policy will dictate that without greater levels of employment, further opportunities for housing development will be restricted. With restricted housing, given the shift to smaller households, the area would then suffer a decrease in population with a resultant spiral of social and economic decline for the remaining community. As a result, Midsomer Norton & Radstock must be recognised as the economic priority area of the Local Authority area and the key issue being the attraction of more employers to ensure that the communities continue to thrive and gain greater opportunities. One of the difficulties, however, in addressing the needs of Midsomer Norton, Radstock and the associated settlements is that on a regional scale, each of the settlements are relatively insignificant. This report therefore considers a broader definition of Midsomer Norton & Radstock and suggests that, at least presentationally, better critical mass and recognition is gained from considering a combination of Midsomer Norton, Paulton, Peasedown St. John and Radstock. By considering the area in this manner, there is an opportunity to reach a scale which is considered important in establishing sub-regional priorities. There is also an opportunity to focus specific functions across a relatively small geographic area whereas without such a functional identity, competition between settlements in close proximity may undermine overall success.
9 Solutions in Regional Development Section 1
Executive Summary
On this basis, Midsomer Norton has established itself as the clear District Centre and in recent years has attracted a number of National multiple retailers. With more support for consolidation of ownerships on the High Street, some minor public realm investment and a clear focus to reinforce retail within Midsomer Norton there is the opportunity for further improvement. Paulton has become an increasingly residential village and its restricted access is likely to reinforce this classification. The proximity of Paulton to Midsomer Norton and the Tesco store at Old Mills restricts the attractiveness of the village to other retailers, but the former Polestar site and the retention of the hospital (in favour of Keynsham) provides some employment opportunities. The connections of Paulton and the configuration of the Polestar site mean that future employment opportunities can be achieved but will be relatively limited in scale. Peasedown St. John can become an important employment generator for the settlements. Its relative proximity to Bath and the accepted brand name of ‘Bath Business Park’ has begun to result in this location drawing interest from Bath where employment sites are limited. The current developers are confident of securing a number of significant pre-lets in the next few months (at June 2006) as well as the likelihood that they will develop some speculative units. There is an opportunity for B&NES to pro-actively support this opportunity through its planning and economic development departments. This may begin to stretch the economic success of the Authority to the South. It is more difficult to identify a clear identity and sustainable future for Radstock despite its position as a former lead settlement within the area. The pre-eminence and established form of the Midsomer Norton High Street and its retail provision is an important economic centre, and any challenge from Radstock will diminish the overall impact for the whole Midsomer Norton & Radstock area. Radstock has a need for local retail provision but struggles to support the wider number of units currently provided. If it were not for the large Co-operative presence, the centre would contain little more than a local community convenience retail offer. Radstock does have a number of strengths although these are currently somewhat disjointed. The attractiveness of the centre; the mining heritage museum; the college; convergence of important routes; strength of the local community; amenity space; and the access to the surrounding countryside through footpaths and cycle paths are all important. There is also a recognised arts group within the town. There is also the opportunity for Radstock to build on these strengths by unifying a number of the current features within a flagship project for B&NES. One possible solution would be to focus the sustainability agenda of B&NES on Radstock with a National exemplar project backed by the community and the college. One important but perhaps overlooked participant in any such scheme could be the Co-operative Society. At the heart of the Co-operative Society’s beliefs are the needs to serve the community and trade ethically. Radco have indicated their willingness to become more engaged in any strategy for the town and given their dominance and land ownership this is essential for the success of any vision for Radstock.
10 Solutions in Regional Development Section 1
Executive Summary
Rural Areas The main conclusion in respect of the rural areas of B&NES is to restrict further development. The entire character of B&NES is determined by the relationship between the towns, villages and countryside. As pressure on land increases, there is a need to consider sustainability of development. Rural development is the least sustainable of all the options in B&NES. Whilst in some cases rural settlements may be closer to Bath or Bristol than alternative sites in Midsomer Norton & Radstock, the nature of rural settlements is that they are dependent on car journeys, not simply for commuting, but also for gaining access to local services and leisure activities. There is also the greater difficulty for B&NES in the provision of adequate services to these rural settlements. There is some need for the provision of some housing in the rural areas for without some residential development, these communities will decline in population as households get smaller. Any decline in population will cause the existing limited service provision to diminish further. The report has also already identified the clear affordability issues in the rural areas and the large scale out-commuting. The conclusion, therefore, is that there is a need for limited housing development in some of the rural villages. Every effort is needed to ensure that this is housing for the community and not rural executive housing to generate more out-commuting. In those villages where there is public transport provision, it is proposed that the level of affordable housing sought should be greater level than the average ratio for the Authority. There is also the likelihood that the proposed urban extension for Bristol will encroach into the rural villages towards the West of B&NES. The need for such an urban extension will be determined by the vision for the Greater Bristol area but any such urban extension will require the improvement of transport links (see below) because further pressure and congestion on the A37 into Bristol is likely to increase the isolation of Midsomer Norton & Radstock and also, potentially, displace HGV traffic which may then seek to travel through Bath.
Bath Suburbs The main issues for the suburbs of Bath relate to the intensity of land use and transport pressure along the major radial routes. This creates an unpleasant environment along most of the major corridors into Bath (Upper and particularly Lower Bristol Road; Wellsway; and London Road). The problem of HGV traffic using the trunk routes is exacerbated by the employment uses along these routes creating their own commercial traffic movements. There is a need to encourage light manufacturing and other workshop based commercial activity to move away from the centre of Bath in order to reduce pressure on these routes. If such an approach is to be undertaken, there must be a suitable alternative. Alternative sites do exist in Peasedown and Keynsham and a more proactive approach is needed to present these opportunities to businesses. In the future any development in the South of Bath – at Foxhill or in a southern urban extension must also have some employment site provision. As residential density increases in the South of the City there will also be the requirement to create a small convenience retail centre.
11 Solutions in Regional Development Section 1
Executive Summary
The solutions for the Bath suburbs and indeed much of the Authority are intrinsically linked to the provision of transport. This is considered below.
Transport The economic fortunes of Midsomer Norton & Radstock have been hampered by poor transport links. Similarly the convergence of major routes in Bath has resulted in a deteriorating living environment for some of the Bath suburban area. There is also an important road safety aspect for the rural villages where road safety targets have been missed. In most Cities a ring road helps solve the problems of traffic convergence and provides better accessed sites for businesses which were historically located on radial routes. A ring road cannot be provided in Bath for reasons of cost, topology and the surrounding environment. The main issue for B&NES however is not road access from outlying areas into Bath; the most important issue relates to access to the motorway network. Midsomer Norton & Radstock is hampered in attracting businesses because of the time taken to reach the motorway. Furthermore the roads within B&NES are adversely affected by HGVs moving through the Authority to reach / leave the M4 at junction 18. One previously examined plan was to create a better link between A36/A46 and whilst this would help the congestion situation within the City of Bath, it would not necessarily help improve journey times or therefore the accessibility of Midsomer Norton & Radstock. It is also likely to remain politically impossible to achieve. There is an alternative transport solution. The Regional Spatial Strategy makes a strong case for the need for improved infrastructure if the growth of the sub-region is to be achieved. The road scheme which has broadest agreement within the sub-region is the completion of the Bristol ring road (to the South). The completion of this ring road to a high standard will be important to allow the increase in residential capacity in the Bristol urban extension. There is an opportunity through this plan for B&NES to fully support the Bristol ring road if the scheme includes improved links to the south of the B&NES Authority creating faster motorway access for Midsomer Norton & Radstock whilst at the same time removing some HGV pressure on Bath. Within the Authority there is some disquiet at the length of time taken to make commuter journeys into Bath. This issue appears to have gained undue prominence. The commuter pressure on the roads is no more significant than in other locations and indeed the ‘rush hour’ falls over a fairly narrow period. As such, whilst commuter traffic is inconvenient, at the current level, schemes to alleviate the problem are unlikely to gain Central Government support. There is, however, a need to improve some of the commuter bus routes. At present the lack of dedicated lanes or priorities for buses results in commuter bus journeys taking at least as long as a similar car journey. This provides no incentive for car users to catch the bus. Future road improvements need to build in bus lanes and bus priority schemes for use at peak times where space can be made available. A second commuter bus improvement would be better parking provision at the point of bus departure (within Radstock or Midsomer Norton). These schemes would allow the bus to present a genuine alternative to car borne commuter journeys.
12 Solutions in Regional Development Section 1
Executive Summary
1.6 Recommendations The Business Plan makes a number of practical and physical recommendations. The recommendations within this Executive Summary are the priorities for B&NES as a result of combining the Bath Business Plan with the Wider B&NES Business Plan. This results in four priorities for B&NES which are considered equally important.
▪ Ensure that the entire Bath Western Riverside (BWR) scheme is completed effectively and within the next ten years. The BWR scheme represents the largest contribution to the provision of housing, and especially affordable housing, within B&NES. The provision of affordable housing in particular is a significant issue for the Authority. B&NES must meet its housing targets within the next ten years to reduce the need to make any immediate decision on development into the greenbelt. Any change in the economic landscape during the next ten years may then reduce the need for additional housing and alleviate the pressure to develop into the greenbelt.
▪ Ensure that the Southgate scheme is completed as quickly as possible and the migration of retailers with the City is managed proactively. Much of the wealth creation in Bath is based on the visitor economy. This is not simply from tourist visitors but also pure retail visits. As consumer tastes change, the retail experience is an increasingly important aspect of any visit. The Southgate redevelopment allows Bath to regenerate a particularly unattractive area of the City and create modern retail units which will not only improve multiple retailer provision but will also allow more independent or higher value retailers to trade at the Northern end of the retail spine. The development is required urgently to help arrest the decline in visitor numbers but also to preserve Bath’s position as a retail destination of choice in the sub-region against the soon to be completed Bristol Broadmead scheme.
▪ Complete an attractive retail redevelopment of the Town Hall site in Keynsham. Keynsham has an opportunity to become recognised as a high quality residential location but at present the town centre is unattractive and this impacts on the overall perception of the town. In the coming years the demographic of Keynsham will shift and this, combined with the growth of Bristol (and Bath), will create an opportunity to increase the wealth of Keynsham. The town could benefit from this increase in wealth, capturing it within by offering distinctive and attractive retail; or it could leak away to Longfield Green and Bristol. The latter would eventually lead to Keynsham becoming more indistinct within suburban Bristol.
13 Solutions in Regional Development Section 1
Executive Summary
▪ Undertake more proactive work and place a focus on generating the employment provision within Midsomer Norton & Radstock. Greater wealth generation is required in the south of the Authority. Without a focus on greater employment opportunities the risk is that there will be increased out-commuting, less planning acceptance for new housing, a declining population and diminishing support for retail or community facilities.
The full list of recommendations arising from the wider B&NES Business Plan is provided at the end of the complete report.
14 Solutions in Regional Development Section 2
Introduction, Scope, Methodology and Overall Approach
2.1 Introduction In recent years there have been large scale changes to the frameworks which help determine regional development. The decisions concerning future economic direction; transport requirements; and overall land use are increasingly undertaken at a regional level through the creation of a number of interlocking strategies: ▪ Regional Economic Strategy ▪ Regional Spatial Strategy
▪ Regional Transport Strategy Prior to these changes in strategic approach, the Local Authority was responsible for establishing a Local Plan which was the statutory planning document for the area. Despite all the changes at the regional level, Local Authorities are still only required to produce a Local Development Document. This document sets out detailed land use categories for the Local Authority. B&NES, however, has taken a more far-sighted and proactive approach in its response to these new frameworks of regional development. B&NES has worked with Ernst & Young to determine a long term vision for the Local Authority which recognises the future direction of the overall region. This approach provides clarity for the development of B&NES; allows opportunities to be pursued more proactively; and ensures that any constraints have been identified at an early stage. By providing a considered overall direction, the vision provides a framework against which proposed developments may be considered and prioritised. This document considers the area of NE Somerset outside of the City of Bath. As such the document specifically considers the towns of Keynsham, Midsomer Norton and Radstock as well as the broader rural communities and the suburbs of Bath. The document examines the current socio-economic position of the area and provides an analysis in terms of future threats and opportunities before making a number of recommendations. The analysis is presented in terms of a detailed assessment and a spatial outcome. In addition a financial model has been prepared for the internal use of the Council. The overall work therefore represents a Business Plan for the wider B&NES area. This work follows on from a similar document prepared for the City of Bath in 2005 (Bath Business Plan). Some of the findings of the Bath Business Plan are combined with this document in later chapters. Ernst & Young was responsible for all the aspects of the engagement apart from the spatial interpretation of the work. The spatial interpretation was carried out by David Lock & Associates and some of their drawings can be found within this document (referenced).
2.1 Scope The overall scope for the Business Plan is set out as follows: � A base line social, economic and environmental study of the areas within B&NES which lie outside the City of Bath.
15 Solutions in Regional Development Section 2
Introduction, Scope, Methodology and Overall Approach
� An analysis of the social, economic and environmental strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats to the wider B&NES area, and the development of a vision for the future of the area. � A forecast of national social, economic and environmental trends to 2026 and their likely relevance to/impacts upon the wider B&NES area and how any plan might be developed in keeping with the Regional Economic Strategy, Regional Transport Strategy and the Regional Spatial Strategy. � Suggestions for land use, economic interventions, property development and public transport improvements through capital investment, essential to deliver the vision which is developed. � Recommendations for a social, economic and environmental strategy or strategies to achieve the draft vision, including policy framework. � Recommendations for delivering the vision, including broad capital and revenue costs and income, and delivery structures (not publicly available). In terms of geographic scope, this document considers the area of NE Somerset outside of the City of Bath. As such the document specifically considers the towns of Keynsham, Midsomer Norton and Radstock as well as the broader rural communities and the suburbs of Bath. In order to take a macro view and set the future character of the entire area it has been necessary to focus on the primary settlements within the Authority and provide a more general view of the key challenges facing the rural settlements. The Local Authority area is illustrated below both in terms of wider context and specific geography:
B&NES Wider Context
16 Solutions in Regional Development Section 2
Introduction, Scope, Methodology and Overall Approach
B&NES Geographic area
Keynsham
Bath
Radstock Midsomer Norton
2.3 Methodology In order to produce the Business Plan, Ernst & Young undertook the work in a number of stages. These stages are listed below: � Scoping. � Review of existing research and available statistics. � Interviews. � Options workshops in Midsomer Norton & Radstock; Keynsham; and with officers of B&NES. � Analysis. � Stakeholder consultation. � Final output workshop. � Financial Model. � Final Report.
Throughout the assignment, Ernst & Young worked alongside David Lock (spatial planners) and B&NES Council to ensure that the overall Business Plan was realistic and achievable. It was also recognised that by involving a wide stakeholder audience, the eventual Business Plan would have a greater level of local commitment and ownership.
17 Solutions in Regional Development Section 2
Introduction, Scope, Methodology and Overall Approach
2.4 Overall Approach Ernst & Young focused on the engagement by separating the analysis into the broad areas of economy, housing, and transport. This structure allowed clarity in the analysis which clearly links to the economic and land use issues and the spatial character of the Authority.
The research undertaken is set out within this document before the analysis is set out in terms of settlements.
18 Solutions in Regional Development Section 3
Regional Spatial Strategy
3.1 Introduction The requirement for English Regions to produce a Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) represents a change in UK Planning Policy. Under previous Planning Policy, Government Office Regions were responsible for the production of Regional Planning Guidance from which individual Local Authorities created their Local Plans. From 2005 the changes resulted in a requirement for every Local Authority to produce a Local Development Document from their adopted Regional Spatial Strategy. The main difference between the old approach, which was based on Regional Planning Guidance (RPG) and the new RSS approach, is the ability to build in a more strategic view of development at a regional level – taking into account the Regional Economic Strategies and associated regional documents. The South West Regional Assembly (SWRA) is responsible for the production of the RSS. At the time of writing this report (July 2006), a draft version of the RSS had been prepared and was available for comment. This draft RSS, once adopted, is intended to cover the period 2006 2026. Given the major impact that the RSS is likely to have on the land use and economic development of Bath and North East Somerset, it is important to consider its likely impact in the preparation of the B&NES Business Plan. This Chapter sets out the core content of the draft RSS and its likely impact on the area.
3.2 Principles & Context In developing the draft RSS, the SWRA has sought to forecast economic and population growth within the Region and then assess its spatial implications. The most important principle used in assessing the spatial implications is the need for development to take place in a sustainable manner. It is this core principle of sustainability which guides the approach outlined throughout the entire draft Strategy. The draft RSS has been prepared against a context of: � The location of the South West; its linkages with other Regions; and the economic performance of those Regions. The influence of London and South East England are recognised as being particularly important to the South West Region. � The environment and the cultural assets of the South West are seen as particularly important to the future development of the Region. Whilst in some cases the protection of the environment may constrain development, overall, the RSS concludes that the environment / culture are key assets for the future prosperity of the Region and must therefore be protected. � Projected economic, employment and population growth. The draft RSS recognises that economic, employment and population growth since 1996 has outstripped the
19 Solutions in Regional Development Section 3
Regional Spatial Strategy
projections contained within RPG 101 and as a result this growth is creating pressure across the region for which no plan has been developed. The RSS makes allowance for growth to ensure that this situation is not repeated. � A requirement for greater levels of infrastructure. The draft RSS states that the greater than anticipated growth within the South West Region has led to a serious under provision of basic transport and social facilities in some areas. Significant additional funds will be needed to provide the infrastructure required. � A greater emphasis on the functions of people and places. The new planning approach used will place a greater emphasis on how people and places interact rather than being limited in approach by administrative boundaries. The result of this approach has led to a draft RSS which contains the following Spatial Strategy Statement: “The RSS for the South West is based on a recognition of the diverse needs and potential for change of different places and parts of the region. Development will be planned to meet the needs of all communities and to realise their potential within environmental limits. To deliver more sustainable communities and a more sustainable region there will be: � Significant change at 23 Strategically Significant Cities and Towns (SSCTs) in order to support their economic and service role and regeneration; and � Smaller scale change outside of those places to achieve more self contained, balanced communities and a better local environment. Across the region, the role and well-being of communities in all settlements and groups of settlements is of great importance to the quality of life enjoyed by residents and the development of new economic activity, services and housing will be provided to enhance their future role and function. In recognition of the diversity of the region, this core spatial strategy has been given different emphases: � Realising the economic and other potential, particularly of the SSCTs, to add to general regional prosperity and address local regeneration, particularly in the north and centre of the region; � Stimulating economic activity and development to help achieve regeneration and reduce disparities, particularly in the western part of the peninsula and the Forest of Dean; � Managing growth within identified environmental limits, particularly in the south eastern part of the region where development pressures are high and future outward expansion and development of the South East Dorset conurbation is heavily constrained by environmental designations.”
1 RPG10 was the last published Regional Planning Guideline before the switch to a RSS approach.
20 Solutions in Regional Development Section 3
Regional Spatial Strategy
3.3 Spatial Development The draft RSS recognises that the “primary focus for development in the South West will be those places which offer the greatest opportunities for employment, and the greatest levels of accessibility by means other than car to cultural, transport, health, education and other services.” The locations where this is assumed to take place are the Strategically Significant Cities and Towns (SSCTs). The towns determined as SSCTs are shown in the table below:
Strategically Significant Cities and Towns Barnstaple Dorchester Taunton Bath Exeter Torbay Bournemouth Falmouth Trowbridge Bridgwater Gloucester Truro Bristol Plymouth Weston super Mare Cambourne/Pool/Redruth Poole Weymouth Cheltenham Salisbury Yeovil Chippenham Swindon Source: Draft Regional Spatial Strategy March 2006
There is, therefore, only one South West SSCT within Bath and North East Somerset but clearly the area has significant functional links with some of the towns immediately outside the boundary of the Council area. Certainly the inter-relationships between B&NES and each of Bristol, Chippenham and Trowbridge are considered to be important. Importantly for B&NES, on the basis of sustainability, the draft RSS determines that any development led by the SCCTs should not ‘leap the greenbelt’. In other words, where development is required, that development should be undertaken on a sequential basis from the centre of the SSCTs. This policy is largely irrespective of the limitations created by the greenbelt. Whilst the draft RSS would envisage most physical growth generated within B&NES taking place within the City of Bath, the document also makes some provision for development at ‘other towns’. The role envisaged for these ‘other towns’ is important in starting to determine the future strategy for towns such as Keynsham, Midsomer Norton and Radstock. The draft RSS makes provision for ‘other towns’ to become the focal points for the provision of locally significant development. For this to take place, the towns must meet all of the following criteria: � Where there is an existing concentration of business and employment, or where there is realistic potential for employment opportunities to be developed and enhanced; � Where shopping and cultural, religious and faith, educational, health and public services can be provided to meet the needs of the town and the surrounding area whilst minimising car dependence;
21 Solutions in Regional Development Section 3
Regional Spatial Strategy
� Where there is potential to maintain and develop sustainable transport modes, including accessible local public transport services to meet identified community needs. The draft RSS then states that, ‘the scale and mix of development should increase self containment of the places identified, develop their function as service centres especially in terms of employment and service accessibility, and secure targeted development which can address regeneration needs’. Outside of the provision for the development of the urban areas and market towns, the draft RSS does not support large scale development elsewhere within the South West Region. This is not to say that the draft RSS does not see the need to sustain existing rural communities, but it does seek to limit their physical development. Development should only take place in these areas where it supports small scale economic activity; extends the reach of services; does not promote an increase in traffic and strengthens local communities. Any increase in housing provision should be small scale and assessed on the basis of affordability criteria rather than market demand.
3.4 Potential Impact on Bath and North East Somerset The draft RSS recognises the importance of environment and culture to the South West Region and to its future prosperity. The draft RSS also states that ‘The World Heritage Site status of Bath and its importance to the tourism and retail economy of this part of the region is recognised and this, and its links with surrounding towns in Western Wiltshire and Northern Somerset, will influence the scale and pattern of development’. Nevertheless, the draft RSS finds that, ‘Bath and North East Somerset, Bristol City, North Somerset and South Gloucestershire Councils should plan for the balanced growth of the three urban areas of Bath, Bristol and Western super Mare, maximising the use of previously developed land and buildings, and within a revised greenbelt make provision for significant urban extensions, for mixed use development, to meet longer term needs.’ The same section of the draft RSS does also make it clear that any extension into the greenbelt must still preserve the delineation between Bath, Bristol and Weston super Mare. The draft RSS does then specifically set out key findings for Bath. These are set out in full in the paragraphs below: “Bath, benefiting from World Heritage Site status, is recognised as being of international significance for its historic environment. Bath also has an international reputation as a cultural centre and tourist destination, founded upon its architecture, public realm, retail ‘niche’ market, cultural offer and surrounding high quality countryside. Bath’s labour force is drawn from a number of surrounding smaller towns as well as the City and Bristol. The quality and character of this environment, and the City’s intimate relationship with the surrounding natural landscape means the strategy focus is on protecting and enhancing the environment, whilst enabling the City to continue its economic, social and cultural development. The strong economic performance of Bath is expected to continue (overall employment in the Bath travel to work area is expected to rise by about 16,000-20,200 jobs over the plan period)
22 Solutions in Regional Development Section 3
Regional Spatial Strategy
as long as land and labour availability can be maintained. It is expected the key sectors of professional and business services, retailing and tourism will provide the majority of new jobs on previously developed land and buildings (largely through redevelopment of city centre and off centre sites). There is also a need to diversify the local economy, building on emerging strengths in other sectors, such as ICT, environmental technologies and creative industries and develop links with the university. The need for housing should be accommodated primarily through the re-use of urban sites, but a strategic urban extension will be needed. Growth in jobs in Bath could outstrip the delivery of homes, particularly affordable homes. Many people currently commute from lower cost housing locations. The key strategic development issue for Bath is how best to accommodate sufficient housing to help meet future needs, within and close to the City, rather than relying on a more dispersed provision in settlements beyond the green belt, also in Mendip and West Wiltshire. By containing growth within and adjacent to its urban area, there are more opportunities for sustainable transport, maximising the potential of walking, cycling and public transport. In this context, some growth in nearby towns to meet local needs and a continuation of regeneration policies at Midsomer Norton & Radstock will be consistent with an urban extension to Bath. Recognising that the capacity of the urban area to accommodate development is lower than the overall requirement, and the constraints of World Heritage status, a well planned urban extension is proposed to meet this shortfall, incorporating the conclusions of the Green Belt Review, which has identified a location where land could be removed from the green belt without serious damage. This is particularly important at Bath as this will enable a more sustainable pattern of development to be pursued, rather than a more dispersed option which could result in an increase in car borne commuting. Innovative design techniques that can respond to the existing architecture, yet increase densities and maximise redevelopment opportunities will be required. Careful choice of materials, the scale of buildings, their proximity and visual intrusion will all need to be sensitively addressed in a master plan and development brief. The long term development of Bath will need further careful evaluation through the LDD process of whether a high quality planned extension of the urban area can be achieved without detracting from Bath’s World Heritage Site status. SR5 Bath will continue to realise economic opportunities, respecting the World Heritage Site status of its internationally significant historic environment with provision for job growth in the Bath travel to work area for between 16,000 to 20,000 jobs over the plan period, complemented by provision for an average of about 375 dwellings per annum within and adjoining Bath’s urban area over the plan period. Development at Bath will focus on the reuse of previously developed land and buildings within the urban area, maximising densities, reflecting the impact on the historic environment and its setting, complemented by the provision of an urban extension to accommodate to accommodate upto 1500 dwellings to the south of Bath in Area of search E, as shown on the key diagram.
23 Solutions in Regional Development Section 3
Regional Spatial Strategy
Map Illustrating the potential area for an Urban extension to the City of Bath
Source: Estimated area reproduced from the RSS The design and quality of the urban extension will require the highest standards to ensure that the environmental assets, both urban and rural, as well as landscape setting, are protected and maintained, thereby maximising the impact on Bath’s World Heritage Site status. The urban extension should also provide an appropriate level of physical and social infrastructure, well integrated into the City through sustainable means of movement, avoiding areas susceptible to flooding from the River Avon, to ensure that it will maximise the ability to be a sustainable community, incorporating green infrastructure. Investment will be made in key infrastructure to enable the achievement of the development proposed in this policy. Key infrastructure required will be identified through the Implementation Plan and will include: - Bath public transport package, including longer term Rapid Transit measures.”
The Regional Spatial Strategy clearly sets out that there is likely to be a requirement for an urban extension to Bath within the next twenty years as a result of forecast growth and a lack of space to accommodate this growth. It is therefore useful to examine the assumptions which result in the forecasts for Bath and North East Somerset.
3.5 RSS Growth Assumptions It is notoriously difficult to make macro economic projections. RPG10 underestimated the economic growth of the period 1996-2006 which was hardly surprising given that the UK has recently experienced an unprecedented 14 years of uninterrupted economic growth. In the preparation of the Regional Spatial Strategy, the Regional Assembly employed Cambridge Econometrics to estimate economic growth over the period 2006-2026. They
24 Solutions in Regional Development Section 3
Regional Spatial Strategy
broadly extrapolated recent economic growth and used a top down approach to the employment forecasts for the South West including Bath and North East Somerset. In order to provide some context the forecasts used in the Regional Spatial Strategy, the economic growth of the UK economy since 1948 is illustrated below:
Blue line is actual annual percentage Blue line is actual annual percentage change. Long Term GVA Growth (UK) change. Red line is 20-year20- year moving average Red line is 20- year moving average trend line. 7.0 trend line. Last annual decline 1991. Last annual decline 1991. 6.0 Average for period 1948 – 2005 is Average for period 1948 – 2005 is 2.38% 2.38% 5.0
4.0 3.0
2.0 1.0
0.0 1 3 5 7 9 49 73 97 957 979 981 003 005 19 195 195 1955 1 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 19 197 197 1 1 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 19 199 2001 2 2 AnnualPercentage Change AnnualPercentage Change--1.0 1.0
--2.02.0
--3.03.0
--4.04.0
Source: ONS
Long term UK average economic growth since 1948 has been 2.38% and this is significantly lower than the growth rate forecast by Cambridge Econometrics of 2.8-3.2%. The South West Region has appeared to outperform the UK average growth since 19482 but, nevertheless, the regional growth forecasts appear to be somewhat optimistic. Furthermore, the top down approach to employment projections does not take into account capacity of employment sites or the size of the available workforce.
2 Economic growth rates for Regions are only published using current prices rather than real price data. Regional inflation rates are not calculated and as a result it is difficult to provide real economic growth data at a regional and sub-regional level.
25 Solutions in Regional Development Section 3
Regional Spatial Strategy
B&NES Council attempted to provide a reconciliation of the work undertaken by Cambridge Econometrics and reconcile the employment growth calculations to the projected capacity of employment sites. This analysis is set out below:
Employment Growth Scenarios 1. The employment growth is based on the Bath Travel to Work Area. The assumption (based on the policies in the draft Regional Spatial Strategy) is that the growth will be focussed on the Bath PUA.
2. Scenario 1 is based on a conservative economic growth forecast taking into account past trends and known development policies and proposals. The forecast was provided by the JSPTU.
3. Scenario 2 is based on an employment projection provided by Cambridge Econometrics for the Regional Assembly. It projects a GVA growth of 2.8% per annum in the South West.
4. Scenario 3 is based on an employment projection provided by Cambridge Econometrics for the Regional Assembly. It projects a GVA growth of 3.2% per annum in the South West.
Employment Space Requirements 2006-2026 Business Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Estimated Space Job Space Job Space Job Space Site Type Growth Required Growth Required Growth Required Capacity / Loss m² m² m² Net Gain/Loss m²
Industrial -310 -9,920 -1200 -38,400 -1200 -38,400 -55,710 Office (Business +4,670 93,400 +9,700 194,000 +11,500 230,000 89,530 Space) sectors Non Business +4,650 116,250 +7,200 180,000 +8,800 220,000 109,117 Space Sectors Total 9,010 15,700 19,100
26 Solutions in Regional Development Section 3
Regional Spatial Strategy
Employment Space Requirements notes: 1. The space requirements are based on the following ratios: Offices – 20m² per person: industrial – 32m² per person: non business space – 25m² per person average. 2. The floorspace requirements are extrapolated from the Employment Densities Guide produced by Arup Economics & Planning for English Partnerships.
3. The estimated overall net site capacity figures are obtained from the Bath Employment Sites Capacity Review 2006 – 2026.
Reconciliation
In fact it is impossible to reconcile the findings of the RSS. The employment growth projections are provided for the Bath Travel to Work Area (a selection of wards not co-terminus with the Local Authority boundary) whilst the housing unit projections are provided for the B&NES Council area.
3.6 Conclusion
The Regional Spatial Strategy will have a strong influence over the future development of all the Local Authorities in the South West. The requirement to plan for growth; the principles of sustainable development; and the patterns of development based on SSCTs will have an impact on the future of Bath and North East Somerset.
Whilst the principles of the RSS are clear the findings in terms of physical development are confused. The RSS creates the illusion of a strong arithmetic relationship between its employment forecasts and the required housing growth. When the projections are analysed however, the apparent relationship does not appear to be based on a similar geographic basis and no reconciliation is provided by the Regional Assembly.
27 Solutions in Regional Development Section 4
Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats
4.1 Introduction It is possible to summarise the situation in B&NES through a SWOT analysis. This is set out below:
Strengths Weaknesses
City of Bath Midsomer Norton & Radstock and the former mining communities
The City of Bath faces a number of issues which Midsomer Norton & Radstock is a low wage are set out in the Bath Business Plan. These are, earning, low skilled economy with an over- however, essentially related to difficult choices dependence on employers in the printing, paper and with regard to land use and planning. Essentially packaging sector. Employment within the sector is the Bath economy works reasonably well; in decline. The towns are geographically remote generates significant revenues for the Council from Bristol and Bath with no fast access to a through its ownership of a thriving commercial motorway. Recent development has focused on estate; and holds World Heritage Status which residential expansion but employment reinforces the City as a desirable place to live and opportunities are in Bath and Bristol resulting in a visit. strong pattern of commuting.
Within the City of Bath there is of course work to On this basis the overall economic position of be completed to arrest an apparent decline in tourist Midsomer Norton & Radstock relative to the numbers, generate more private sector employment remainder of B&NES is weak. and invest in the public realm.
Opportunities Threats
Keynsham Not addressing the key challenges set out in the Regional Spatial Strategy
Keynsham is positioned mid-way between Bristol The Regional Spatial Strategy accepts rather than and Bath – two of the principal urban areas within challenges recent trends for growth to be focused the West of England and recognised as a location on urban areas. It also recommends that the for economic growth within the Regional Spatial location for housing should always be balanced Strategy. The town is geographically distinct with a with employment. The result is that there is a risk buffer of greenbelt protecting its character from the that those areas in economic decline have a growth in Bristol. Housing, schooling and planning policy which restricts the interventions community activity is strong and some areas of the which can be used to address the decline. This is a town are attractive. There are several key issue for Midsomer Norton & Radstock. development/re-development sites – perhaps the most important of which is within Council ownership.
28 Solutions in Regional Development Section 4
Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats
This summary SWOT therefore sets out some of the key issues for the Business Plan but it is important to examine all the issues of B&NES in more detail.
4.2 Strengths
Attractiveness of the Local Authority B&NES is one of the most attractive areas of the UK with a combination of the City of Bath with World Heritage Site status combined with access to attractive green space and villages. Much of the Local Authority is greenbelt with a number of sites designated as Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty.
Recognition Linked to the attractiveness of the area, B&NES is nationally renowned. This is mainly derived from the reputation of the City of Bath.
Position within the sub-region Transport links within some areas of the Local Authority are relatively poor, but the Local Authority is in a strong geographic position close to Bristol, Bristol airport and relatively close to the economic engine of South East England. The M4 and M5 motorways, once accessed, provide National links North, South, East and West. Furthermore national rail connections are provided at Bath Spa and Bristol Temple Meads.
Strength of the housing market B&NES has a buoyant housing market and whilst this leads to problems of affordability, it has led to increases in wealth within the Local Authority; ensured that there is reinvestment in the built assets of the Local Authority; and ensures that there is a commercial return for private sector property development on most brownfield sites.
Education Schools within B&NES offer a high level of education and there has been a recent improvement of the schools in the south of the Authority which had been the least effective. Pupils from outside B&NES are frequent applicants to schools in areas such as Keynsham. The Norton Radstock College is an important resource.
29 Solutions in Regional Development Section 4
Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats
Crime There are relatively low levels of crime across the Authority.
Living environment The attractiveness of the Authority combined with the strong levels of education and low levels of crime provide a strong living environment. This is further illustrated by the strength of the housing market. B&NES Council and the Town Councils have also placed some emphasis on the provision of parkland and community space.
Operating at full employment Employment levels are high although there are some issues relating to wage levels and out- commuting.
Public transport provision The provision of Bus services across the Authority is strong. There is an issue relating to the lack of priority that busses have over cars on the major routes.
4.3 Weaknesses
Lack of affordable housing provision The strong housing market has resulted in a lack of affordable housing within the area and this is further compounded by the relatively low wages within the Authority. There is also a lack of 1 and 2 bedroom properties within the housing market affecting the first time buyer market. B&NES has continually missed affordability targets and the stock of affordable housing is falling through low completion rates and existing housing being purchased through right to buy schemes. The strong housing market may provide the financial returns which allow developers to build the required level of affordable units in the longer term. Housing provision in the near future, however, is largely dependent on the ability to complete the Bath Western Riverside scheme.
Difficult and slow road journeys There are no motorways within B&NES and the provision of rail is limited to the North of
30 Solutions in Regional Development Section 4
Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats
the Authority with an important station at Bath Spa and limited services from Keynsham, Oldfield Park and Freshford. The remaining transport infrastructure is based on mainly single carriageway roads which cross relatively difficult terrain resulting in slow road journeys. The slow road journeys impact on the attractiveness of the area for business. The concentration of traffic onto single carriageway roads reduces the quality of the environment for those villages located along the roads and also results in B&NES missing its road safety targets. Access to the motorway network is relatively easy from Keynsham.
A lack of diversity in the economic base There are relatively few large private sector companies operating within B&NES. In Midsomer Norton & Radstock there is an over dependence on the printing and packaging industry and this industry is suffering from declining margins. One of the largest employers (Polestar) has closed within the last 12 months. In Keynsham, the largest private sector employer is Cadbury. Across the Local Authority, however, there are a number of trading estates which support small and medium sized businesses operating within the sub-region. The Local Authority has a large public sector employment base but this is largely concentrated on the City of Bath.
Low wage levels The lack of a large and diverse private sector employment base has restricted wage levels within the Local Authority.
Skill levels There has been a relatively low level of skills attainment across the adult population. This is a particular issue for Midsomer Norton & Radstock where, in some parts of the community, limited diversity in job
31 Solutions in Regional Development Section 4
Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats
opportunities and low wages have led to a lack of incentive to gain skills which in turn limits the attractiveness of the area for new employers. This is a key circular issue for Midsomer Norton & Radstock which can only be broken by a continual improvement in education; the attraction of new employers; and a greater visibility of the opportunities available.
A lack of diversity B&NES is a relatively insular Local Authority and this may have contributed to the poverty of aspiration and lack of new opportunities in locations such as Midsomer Norton & Radstock.
Weak town centres The proximity of Bath and Bristol combined with low wage levels have resulted in price conscious high streets in both Midsomer Norton and Keynsham. In Midsomer Norton there is a need to gain a greater level of investment by larger retailers whilst in Keynsham the independent retail offer needs to be reinforced to differentiate the centre from Bristol and Bath.
Focus of B&NES Council The continual challenges presented by the City of Bath as the largest conurbation in the Authority have resulted in some projects in Keynsham and Midsomer Norton & Radstock not gaining the priority that they require.
Community consensus in Midsomer Norton & It has been difficult for B&NES Council to Radstock undertake work in Midsomer Norton & Radstock because there is a lack of consensus over the priorities for the area and an apparent lack of trust between the community and the Bath based Local Authority. This has led to a stalemate over a variety of projects and has limited development in the area.
32 Solutions in Regional Development Section 4
Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats
4.4 Opportunities
Land availability In Keynsham and Midsomer Norton & Radstock there remains a reasonable number of sites identified which are either available or where use can be intensified. These sites provide opportunities broadly within the existing urban form. In each location, therefore, there is the opportunity to increase the provision of commercial and residential development.
Growth of Bristol The growth of Bristol will continue to provide job opportunities and an increased market for B&NES businesses. The attractiveness of the B&NES area immediately adjacent to the widening suburbs of Bristol will increase those visitors into B&NES seeking access to a different retail offer; leisure activities; and open space.
Bristol Airport The expansion of Bristol airport will provide more opportunities for service sector businesses. B&NES will become a more attractive location if Bristol airport offers a genuine alternative to Heathrow on the major business routes. The impact of strong regional airports on economic performance is illustrated by the impact of Manchester airport on South Manchester and Cheshire.
Bristol Ring Road The investment in the Bristol ring road could potentially offer faster motorway access to the less accessible areas of B&NES if the investment includes some associated road spur improvements.
Public sector employment There is a large amount of public sector employment in B&NES. This is not simply the Local Authority but also the health and education sector, the Ministry of Defence and a number of other Central Government functions. These activities are currently located on valuable sites in Bath which are attractive to private sector investors.
33 Solutions in Regional Development Section 4
Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats
There is an opportunity to distribute this employment more widely across B&NES.
Supplementary initiatives There are a number of smaller scale initiatives which can be given a greater level of impetus. These include the Fair Trade initiative in Keynsham; the development of the Somerset Farmers Markets; a willingness to consider a flagship sustainability project; a tourism offer that promotes the City of Bath alongside other adjacent attractions; and a broad pre-market artistic community.
4.5 Threats
Further out-commuting The inability to attract new employment into B&NES combined with the rise in house prices is increasing the tendency for out- commuting. This could lead to dormitory town status in Keynsham as the proportion of retired people within the community declines. It will also impact on the weekday footfall on Midsomer Norton High Street.
Development in Bristol with poor infra If the projected growth to the south of Bristol structure investment takes place (and the urban extension within B&NES) prior to the proposed road infrastructure investment, the increased congestion on the A37 will further isolate the south of the B&NES Authority and may push more HGV movements onto the A367 and A36 through Bath. If the proposed ring road extension is of insufficient quality with poor junction access arrangements and there is no associated infrastructure to spur roads then the investment will offer little to B&NES.
Centralisation of B&NES Council The proposed centralisation of B&NES into one location within Bath will impact on employment in Midsomer Norton and Keynsham. If the relocation takes place prior to finding alternative uses for the office space concerned the move will have a negative impact on the retail core of both Keynsham and Midsomer Norton.
34 Solutions in Regional Development Section 4
Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats
Growth of retail in Bristol The new town centre retail development within Bristol will bring renewed competition for the retail provision within B&NES.
Impact of house prices on social mix The lack of diversity and relatively insular nature of B&NES is identified as a weakness which may impact on economic vibrancy. The lack of affordable housing also results in a one dimensional social mix extenuating the lack of diversity.
35 Solutions in Regional Development Section 5
Research - Economic
5. Research – Economic
5.1 Key Findings � B&NES has nearly full employment, but this employment is skewed towards the public sector. Wages in B&NES are lower than the average for Great Britain but higher than the average for the South West. � B&NES has a relatively high skilled workforce although this is not distributed evenly. Norton-Radstock in particular has a lower skilled workforce. � Employment growth has been achieved within the service sector but employment within the industrial sector continues to decline. � B&NES has a short term office space supply problem and attracting demand for industrial sites in Norton-Radstock and surrounding areas is a challenge.
5.2 Introduction All the traditional economic development and employment measures for B&NES indicate a Unitary Authority performing strongly. B&NES has a lower unemployment rate than the average of the South West and of England and Wales. The employment mix of residents of B&NES suggests that they tend to employ higher tier jobs than the average in South West and England and Wales. However within the Unitary Authority, Norton-Radstock has a severe problem of lack of qualifications within its workforce with poor numeracy and literacy skills. The proportion of employment in Public Administration, Education and Health is very significant in B&NES compared to other Local Authorities across Southern England. The average salaries in B&NES are below the average for Great Britain but significantly higher than that of the South West. Within B&NES, Keynsham has an ageing population, with a significantly higher population outside the working age than B&NES or the UK. Midsomer Norton & Radstock conversely has a high proportion of its population within the working age. B&NES continues to lose industrial workplaces and employment continues to move towards services and retail oriented businesses. Within B&NES, in the short term, some office floor space is available in Bath City and Keynsham. Industrial floor space is available in Norton- Radstock and surrounding rural areas. Despite some availability there is a likely supply deficit of suitable office accommodation across B&NES. The industry sector in Midsomer Norton & Radstock is heavily dependent on the packaging and printing industry. The large employers are currently Communisis (direct mail), Alcan Packaging (food packaging) and Welton Bibby & Baron (paper bag manufacture). In Keynsham 60% of the manufacturing jobs are within the Cadbury Schweppes Somerdale facility.
36 Solutions in Regional Development Section 5
Research - Economic
The conclusion which may be drawn from these statistics is that the B&NES economy continues to be reasonably successful but has some important structural issues relating to skills; employment mix; work floor space; and crucially wage levels. The relative lack of high value private sector employment and the low wage rates found in B&NES result in poor levels of wealth creation. The private sector employers who are located within B&NES face continual cost pressures. The key question relates to whether B&NES can attract industries to Norton-Radstock and surrounding areas to create a more sustainable economy in the southern part of the Unitary Authority. The economic section is set out as follows: � Working Age Population � Employment Levels � Skill Levels � Employment Mix � Economic Growth of the City � Types of Company � Salary Levels � Travel to Work � Commercial Land & Property
5.3 Working Age Population The proportion of the population which is of working age across the whole of B&NES is similar the average for the UK. In Keynsham the working age population is the lowest within B&NES with 22% of the population 65 years and above. The demographic profile of Keynsham is similar to that of Bournemouth (21% >65 years) and Torbay (22.6% >65 years). Working age population
Bath Keynsham N -R Rural B&NES UK
Total population 84,000 15,531 21,325 48,184 169,040 57,424,200
Working age 65.9% 56.3% 71.6% 59.1% 61.4% 63.8% population (%)
Source: Various sources and E&Y analysis (based on 2001 census figures) The youngest population mix is found in Midsomer Norton & Radstock where the proportion of the population within working age is significantly higher than the UK average.
37 Solutions in Regional Development Section 5
Research - Economic
The figures are consistent with the fact that Keynsham was created as a expanded town for Bristol in the 1960s and the population which moved to the location has, on the whole, stayed within the town whilst young families within Bath & NE Somerset are now buying residential property within locations such as Midsomer Norton where house prices have traditionally been lower in price.
5.4 Employment Levels Employment rates across B&NES residents are high. A review of Job Seekers Allowance claimants for March 2006 by ward reveal that the B&NES as a whole has a claimant count rate of 1.2% compared to a South West average of 1.6% and a UK average of 2.9%. The table below shows the claimant count data by Ward and it is evident that within B&NES rural areas have the lowest claimant count rate and Keynsham and Norton-Radstock have similar claimant count rates whilst Bath and Bath suburbs have the highest. Unemployment Claimant Count Claimant Count March 2006 Number Rate %
UK 937,600 2.9 England & Wales 821,600 2.9 South West 50,140 1.6 B&NES 1,236 1.2 Bath 779 1.4 Abbey 74 2.0 Bathwick 05 0.2 Combe Down 37 1.2 Kingsmead 67 1.8 Lambridge 27 0.9 Lansdown 39 1.3 Lyncombe 28 0.9 Newbridge 44 1.3 Odd Down 43 1.3 Oldfield 34 1.0 Southdown 65 1.9 Twerton 100 3.1 Walcot 95 2.4 Westmoreland 32 0.9 Weston 41 1.5 Widcombe 48 1.3 Keynsham 83 1.0 Keynsham East 18 0.6 Keynsham North 34 1.2 Keynsham South 31 1.1 Norton –Radstock 138 1.1
38 Solutions in Regional Development Section 5
Research - Economic
MSN North 25 0.8 MSN Redfield 31 1.0 Radstock 48 1.5 Westfield 34 1.0 Other (Rural) 235 0.8 Bathavon North 41 1.1 Bathavon South 08 0.4 Bathavon West 10 0.6 Chew Valley North 07 0.5 Chew Valley South 08 0.6 Clutton 07 0.5 Farmborough 12 0.8 High Littleton 24 1.3 Mendip 06 0.4 Paulton 36 1.2 Peasedown 40 1.0 Publow and Whitchurch 16 1.1 Saltford 05 0.2 Timsbury 15 1.0 Source: Claimant Count March 2006
On average over the last ten years the claimant count has fallen across the B&NES Unitary Authority area. B&NES has outperformed the South West Region in terms of reducing the numbers of residents claiming Job Seekers Allowance.
Job Seekers Allowance Claimant – Time Series
7 6 5 B&NES % 4
% SW % 3 GB % 2 1 0
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 05 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 2004 20 2006
Source: Nomis Claimant Count Analysis
39 Solutions in Regional Development Section 5
Research - Economic
The Job Seekers Allowance Claimant Count does not tell the whole story about the economic productivity of the B&NES workforce. In the UK economic activity is also assessed. By considering those individuals who are students, retired, disabled etc. Results from the 2001 census demonstrate that B&NES has a similar level of economic activity amongst its population to the average for England. The Tables also shows an analysis of economically active population for the different areas of the Authority. From this the level of retirement in Keynsham and the impact of the University in Bath can be clearly identified.
B&NES Economically Active 2001 Census Midsomer Bath % Keynsham % Norton & % Rural % B&NES % Radstock
All People 62,241 10,982 15,315 34,578 123,116 Economically 40,604 65% 7,401 67% 11,159 73% 23,940 69% Active 83,104 68% In employment 36,446 59% 6,919 63% 10,499 69% 22,449 65% 76,313 62% Employees 30,743 49% 6,094 55% 9,377 61% 18,005 52% 64,219 52% Self Employed 5,703 9% 825 8% 1,122 7% 4,444 13% 12,094 10% Unemployed 1,372 3% 206 3% 295 3% 573 2% 2,446 3%
Economically 21,637 35% 3,581 33% 4,156 27% 10,638 31% Inactive 40,012 32% Retired 8,018 13% 2,054 19% 2,122 14% 5,546 16% 17,740 14% Student 6,835 11% 315 3% 342 2% 1,458 4% 8,950 7% Other 6,784 11% 1,212 11% 1,692 11% 3,634 11% 13,322 11% Percentages are based on working age population, except unemployed which is based on economically active.
Source: 2001 Census
England Economically Active 2001 Census Population % (million)
All People 35.532 Economically Active 23.757 67% In employment 21.650 61% Employees 18.695 53% Self Employed 2.955 8% Unemployed 1,372 3%
Economically Inactive 21,637 33%
40 Solutions in Regional Development Section 5
Research - Economic
Retired 8,018 14% Student 6,835 5% Other 6,784 15% Source: 2001 Census
5.5 Skill Levels As a Local Authority with two universities, B&NES might be expected to have a workforce based on higher level skills. This is supported by the statistics. The B&NES area is within the top 50 UK Local Authorities for residents with qualifications of NVQ4 and above. B&NES has the third highest percentage of NVQ4 level (first degrees, higher degrees, HND, HNC and certain professional qualifications) qualifications in the South West with 34.4% only surpassed by Salisbury 35.8% and South Hampshire 35.1% in 2003/04.
Qualifications of Residents 2003/04 B&NES % SW %age GB %age
NVQ4 and above 35,900 34.4 26.1 25.2 NVQ3 and above 56,500 54.1 45.6 43.1 NVQ2 and above 74,900 71.8 65.1 61.5 NVQ1 and above 89,000 85.3 81.8 76 Other Qualifications 6,200 5.9 7.5 8.8 No Qualifications 9,200 8.8 10.7 15.1
Source: Nomis; Local Area labour force survey (Mar 2003- Feb 2004)
The following table gives an analysis of higher level (NVQ4 and above), lower level (NVQ1 to NVQ3) and no qualification categories by area to find out whether there is any inequality in distribution of skill levels across B&NES. This shows that only about 12% of the working age population in Norton-Radstock has a higher level qualification which is only 60% of the UK average. This together with Norton-Radstock’s high level of people with no qualification shows that there is a relative lack of qualifications in the labour market of Norton-Radstock.
41 Solutions in Regional Development Section 5
Research - Economic
B&NES Area Qualifications (2001)
Qualification level Bath % Keynsham % Midsomer % Rural % SW% England Norton & & Radstock Wales %
All People 62,359 10,964 15,280 34,534
Level 4/5 NVQ 19,551 31 1,957 18 1,891 12 8,498 25 19 20
Level 1-3 NVQ 27,624 44 5,155 47 7,643 50 15,855 46 48 44
No Qualification 12,003 19 3,017 28 4,665 31 7,999 23 26 29
Other 3,181 5 835 8 1,081 7 2,182 6 7 7
Source: 2001 Census of Population
Further analysis of skill levels in Midsomer Norton & Radstock is given in the table below. Poor skill levels in Norton-Radstock
Ward % with poor numeracy % with poor literacy
Radstock 29.9 26.6
MSN Redfield 26.8 25.2
MSN North 20.6 21.1
Westfield 22.0 22.8
Source: Midsomer Norton and Radstock, January 2006, B&NES, using BSA benchmark statistic 2000.
B&NES is ranked 259th least deprived Local Authority out of 354 Local Authorities in the English Indices of Deprivation 2004. This shows that B&NES is generally a prosperous LA. However in the area of Bath and Bath Suburbs Twerton West and Whiteway (Southdown area) output areas are within the 20% top most deprived in England. In Keynsham the central area is within the top 40% most deprived areas. In Norton-Radstock Clandown sits within the top 40% most deprived output areas within the country and this is mainly due to barriers to housing and services and due to income deprivation.
(Sources: Keynsham and Midsomer Norton and Radstock, Economic Profile, January 2006, B&NES and ODPM Indices of Deprivation 2004)
42 Solutions in Regional Development Section 5
Research - Economic
5.6 Employment Mix The employment mix of B&NES is interesting. B&NES has a high proportion of workers employed in higher occupational grade jobs higher than GB and SW levels. B&NES is in the top quartile of UK Local Authorities for this type of employment and within the South West B&NES is placed third (after South Hampshire).
Employment by Occupation % % % % B&NES SW GB
% % %
Bath Bath Keynsham MidsomerNorton & Radstock Rural
SOC 2000 major group 1-3 18,773 49 2,697 40 3,188 30 10,217 45 47 40 41 1. Managers and senior officials 6,240 16 1,082 16 1,410 13 4,091 18 16 15 15 2. Professional Occupations 6,634 18 663 10 695 7 2,954 13 17 12 13 3. Associate and professional 5,899 15 952 14 1,083 10 3,172 14 14 13 14 SOC 2000 major groups 4-5 7,784 21 1,882 27 2,957 28 5,647 25 24 25 24 4. Administrative and Secretarial 4,457 12 1,128 16 1,399 13 2,909 13 14 12 13 5. Skilled trades occupation 3,327 9 754 11 1,558 15 2,738 12 10 12 11 SOC 2000 major group 6-7 5,161 14 1,034 15 1,660 16 2,720 12 14 17 16 6. Personal service occupations 2,206 6 447 6 751 7 1,321 6 6 9 8 7. Sales and customer service 2,955 8 587 9 909 9 1,399 6 8 8 8 occs SOC 2000 major group 8-9 5,983 16 1,266 18 2,720 26 3,792 17 16 19 19 8. Process plant and machine 1,823 5 554 8 1,164 11 1,479 7 6 7 8 operatives 9. Elementary occupations 4,160 11 712 10 1,556 15 2,313 10 10 12 12 Source: Nomis; Annual Population Survey (April 2004 – Mar 2005); Area figures are for 2001, Therefore figures are not strictly comparable)
Whilst B&NES is in the top quartile for the proportion of managerial and professional employment, it also has a relatively high proportion of the workforce involved in public sector employment. The Local Authority also has about average levels of employment attributed to restaurants, hotels and tourism.
43 Solutions in Regional Development Section 5
Research - Economic
Employee Jobs B&NES B&NES % SW % GB% Numbers
Total Employee jobs 91,606 Full Time 64,453 70 64 68 Part Time 27,154 30 36 32 Manufacturing 7,261 8 12 12 Construction 3,368 4 5 5 Services 79,897 88 82 82 Distribution, hotels and restaurants 21,331 23 27 25 Transport and communications 2,471 3 5 6 Finance, IT, other business 13,999 16 17 20 activities Public Administration, Education 38,544 42 28 26 and Health Other Services 3,553 4 5 5 Tourism Related 6,861 8 9 8 Source: Nomis; Annual business inquiry employee analysis (2004)
The high level of public sector employment can also be seen, to a certain extent, when B&NES is compared to a selection of other University Local Authorities across the South of England.
Proportion of Employment involved in Public Administration, Education and Health %age Employment
Cambridge 45.9 Oxford 44.4 B&NES 42.1 Exeter 39.2 Canterbury 38.3 Guildford 31.5 Southampton 30.8 Brighton 29.6 Bristol 27.8 Reading 21.5 Warwick 21.0 Source: Nomis; Annual business inquiry employee analysis (2004)
The domination of the public sector amongst the largest employers in the Local Authority can be seen from the table below. This shows the significant employers across B&NES.
44 Solutions in Regional Development Section 5
Research - Economic
B&NES significant employers Area-wise (Italics denotes private sector): Estimated Employees
BATH & BATH SUBURBS Royal United Hospital – Bath NHS Trust 3500 Ministry of Defence 3500 B&NES Council 3400 University of Bath 2352 Wessex Water 1500 Helphire Group Plc 800 The Robina Care Group Ltd 700 Future Publishing Ltd 650 B&NES Primary Care Trust 600 Bath Spa University College Ltd 600 Walter Lawrence Civil and Mechanical Ltd 500 City of Bath College 500 Sainsbury’s Supermarket 500 KEYNSHAM Cadbury Trebor Bassett Ltd 600 Keynsham Hospital 150 Gregory Distribution Ltd. 150 Co-op 140 Wellsway Secondary School Approx. 125 Broadlands Comprehensive School 110 Somerfield 100 Keynsham Leisure Centre 100 Mead (SJ) Ltd. 100 Sparrow Crane Hire 80 NORTON-RADSTOCK Norton Radstock college 300 Communisis BBF 300 Welton Bibby and Baron Ltd 280 Alcan Packaging Lawson Mardon Ltd 206 Coates Electrographics 200 Dickies UK Ltd 200 North Hill School 180 Continue Forms Holdings plc 150 Sainsbury’s Plc 150 Herald Electronics Ltd 140 SCB Stock Products 100 Source: B&NES Economic Profile August 2005 & Ernst & Young
Of the private sector employers, the following provides a profile of their activity and provides some insight into their likely employment type:
45 Solutions in Regional Development Section 5
Research - Economic
Key Private Sector Employers Employer Activity Employment
BATH & BATH SUBURBS Wessex Water Wessex Water is the regional water and Circa 500 sewage treatment business. Business Headquarters, including finances, HR and director offices. Centre also undertakes engineering design and construction management. Helphire Group Vehicle Accident Management Circa 800 company. HQ, finance and HR activities, including the main contact and administration centre. Robina Care Group Operator of 51 nursing homes. Circa 700 Bridgepoint Capital acquired a majority stake in Robina Care Group for £35m, and Bank of Scotland is to provide a further £15m to fund acquisitions. Future Publishing Specialist Consumer Publishers. 600 Headquarters in Bath, with five additional sites within the City undertaking all design, editorial and production. Walter Lawrence Civil and Civil and mechanical engineering. Now TBC - some Mechanical owned by Daniel Contractors Ltd. a functions utilities and civil engineering contractor relocated to which has its headquarters in Warrington Warrington, Cheshire The Bath operation is operated as a satellite office with general administration and quantity surveyors. Sainsbury Food retailer and superstore. Circa 500 KEYNSHAM Cadbury Trebor Bassett Ltd Manufacturer of sugar confectionary 600 including the Fry’s brand; ‘Crunchie’; ‘Mini Eggs’; (www.cadbury.co.uk) Gregory Distribution Ltd. Transport and distribution company 150 (www.gdl.uk.com) Wellsway Secondary School General secondary education Approx. 125 Broadlands Comprehensive General secondary education 110 School Somerfield Supermarket 100 Keynsham Leisure Centre Leisure Centre 100 Mead (SJ) Ltd. General construction of buildings and 100 civil engineering works
46 Solutions in Regional Development Section 5
Research - Economic
Sparrow Crane Hire Renting of construction or demolition 80 equipment with operator NORTON-RADSTOCK Communisis BBF Part of the direct mail fulfilment aspect 300 of the business. Welton Bibby and Baron Ltd Manufacturer of corrugated paper and 280 paperboard, sacks and bags for high quality food packaging Alcan Packaging Lawson Manufacturing of food packaging 206 Mardon Ltd Coates Electrographics Manufacturing of printing ink 200 Dickies UK Ltd Manufacturing of workwear 200 Continue Forms Holdings Composition and plate-making 150 plc Safeway Stores Plc Supermarket 150 Herald Electronics Ltd Manufacture of electronic instruments 140 and appliances SCB Stock Products Manufacturer of paper stationary 100 Sources: Keynsham and Midsomer Norton and Radstock, Economic Profile, January 2006, B&NES and various (interview and internet)
5.7 Economic Growth Principal urban areas have been critically important to the UK economy over the past decade. Service sector investment has increasingly focused on urban areas and the expansion of employment in these locations has driven a period of urban renaissance. This is the principle reason why the Regional Spatial Strategy has concentrated on existing urban areas as the locations for expansion. Bath is one of the principal urban areas of the South West Region and whilst residents in the City now experience near full levels of employment, it is important to consider whether the employment provided by the City has expanded. Data for employment created within a geographic area is less reliable than data about the employment of individuals because it is based primarily on the Annual Employment Survey. Data from this survey shows that Bath has not been generating new employment at rates comparable with other areas of the UK.
47 Solutions in Regional Development Section 5
Research - Economic
Employment Change % change 1991 - % change 1996 - % change 2001 - 1996 2001 2004
Bath 5% 2% N/a Keynsham 4% 1% 9% MSN-R Area 6% -17% 6% B&NES 6% 2% 18% West of England 10% 9% 6% Great Britain 7% 9% 2% Source: Annual Employment Survey and Keynsham and Midsomer Norton and Radstock, Economic Profile, January 2006, B&NES Although the unadjusted growth figure for B&NES shows 18% growth from 2001-2004, it could be adjusted to 4% if employment growth attributed to the increase in defence activities by Ministry of Defence is removed. B&NES’ adjusted average growth has been lower than the average growth of both the West of England and Great Britain (GB) except for the period of 2001-2004 when an attributed growth of 4% was higher than the GB average, but lower than West of England average. Keynsham experienced lower growth rates from 1991 to 2001 although it recovered during 2001-2004, when the growth rate was 9% which is higher than WE, GB and B&NES averages. Norton-Radstock recorded a -17% growth during 1996-2001 which is mostly due to the withdrawal of manufacturing, transportation and communication sectors. Despite B&NES having lower overall employment growth than the West of England, the number of successful business start ups (measured by stock of VAT registered businesses) is ahead of the average for the South West or Great Britain as a whole.
48 Solutions in Regional Development Section 5
Research - Economic
Time Series VAT Registered Businesses B&NES % SW % GB % Numbers Annual Annual Annual Growth Growth Growth
1994 5,040 154,400 1,560,115 1995 5,055 0.3 153,165 -0.8 1,559,930 -0.01 1996 5,170 2.3 154,285 0.7 1,575,160 1.0 1997 5,355 3.6 157,465 2.1 1,611,685 2.3 1998 5,475 2.2 160,520 1.9 1,648,500 2.3 1999 5,650 3.2 162,845 1.4 1,676,015 1.7 2000 5,795 2.6 164,650 1.1 1,700,900 1.5 2001 5,915 2.1 166,255 1.0 1,717690 1.0 2002 6,030 1.9 168,500 1.4 1,737,335 1.1 2003 6,100 1.2 170,430 1.1 1,758,450 1.2 2004 6,110 0.2 170,775 0.2 1,760,955 0.1 Average Growth 2.0 1.0 1.2 Source: Nomis; VAT Registrations / deregistrations by industry (2004) & Ernst & Young Analysis
These contrasting figures perhaps demonstrate that the B&NES economy does not have the disproportionate growth impact on the regional economy that has been provided by other principal urban areas across the UK – but that the economy itself is performing adequately.
5.8 Types of Company The preponderance of small businesses within the economy is highlighted further when types of company are examined. A breakdown of business site employment by size band and by use demonstrates that B&NES is dominated by small companies although this is in keeping with the average for the South West.
Proportion of companies by employment size band 1 -9 10 -19 20 -49 50 -199 200+
UK 83.4 8.3 5.1 2.5 0.6 SW 84.8 7.8 4.7 2.2 0.5 B&NES 84.6 7.8 5.0 2.2 0.5 Source: Office of National Statistics – SW Region in Figures 2004/05
49 Solutions in Regional Development Section 5
Research - Economic
This analysis ties in with the work which was carried out on the Bath office market as part of the Bath Business Plan which is highlighted below. All Bath Office Employment Structure by Number of Employees Number of Companies %
Less than 25 772 90 25-50 50 5.8 50-75 10 1.2 75-100 9 1.0 >100 17 2.0 Total 858 100 Source: Cushman & Wakefield / Healy & Baker research group
5.9 Salary Levels It is perhaps the impact of the public sector, the service economy and the average skill levels across the LA which limit the levels of wages earned. B&NES is a high wage earning economy within SW. But its earnings are approximately 2% below the average for Great Britain. This is a key issue when it is considered that the housing market has the characteristics found within a South East England location but this is not matched in terms of earnings.
Earnings by Workplace B&NES SW GB £ £ £
Gross Weekly Pay Full Time workers 424.8 401.0 432.1 Male 460.0 443.8 473.4 Female 371.3 340.2 372.1
Hourly Pay Full Time workers 10.64 10.00 10.82 Male 11.44 10.73 11.48 Female 9.67 8.96 9.87 Source: Nomis; Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings - Workplace Analysis (2005)
These figures cover the whole of the Local Authority area (and are not reliably available for the different areas) but will necessarily be skewed towards Bath because this is the location for the majority of the employment within the Local Authority area.
50 Solutions in Regional Development Section 5
Research - Economic
The average wages for the B&NES Economy can again be compared to the University towns in the South of England. This places Bath in a poor light compared to a selection of peers.
Earnings by Workplace for a selection of peers Gross Weekly Pay £
Reading 528.2 Guildford 499.9 Cambridge 475.9 Oxford 472.7 Cheltenham 450.3 Southampton 445.9 Warwick 440.0 Bath & NE Somerset 424.8 Bristol 424.6 Exeter 422.0 Canterbury 400.0 Brighton & Hove 388.9 Source: Nomis; Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings – Workplace Analysis (2005) Residential earning analysis for B&NES gives rise to a gross weekly pay of £433.5 which is higher than the workplace analysis. This means that people residing in B&NES earn a higher average weekly salary than average salaries offered by the workplaces in B&NES. It should be noted, that whilst wage levels are not available for Midsomer Norton & Radstock, the dominance of the printing and packaging industries and the absence of other large private sector employers combined with lower skill levels, suggests that wage levels in Midsomer Norton & Radstock may be below the average for B&NES.
5.10 Travel to Work Whilst there is inevitably some outbound commuting involving B&NES residents, on average residents of the LA travel less distance to work than the average for England and Wales and the South West Region. Compared to South West and England and Wales, B&NES has a higher number of people who walk to work. This number is 15% as a percentage of the total workforce compared to 12% and 10% in South West and England and Wales. This figure is as high as 20% in the City of Bath and lower in the rural areas. These figures are illustrated fully in the table below:
51 Solutions in Regional Development Section 5
Research - Economic
Travel to Work (UK Urban Areas) B&NES South West England & Wales (%) Average Average (%) (%)
People 16-74 in Employment 80,257 2,286,108 23,627,754 (number) Work from home 10.3 11.0 9.2 By underground/tram/LR 0.1 0.1 3.0 By train 2.4 0.9 4.1 By bus/coach 7.7 5.1 7.4 By motorcycle 1.4 1.5 1.1 Drive car/van 54.3 58.8 55.2 Passenger in car/van 5.6 6.3 6.3 Taxi 0.3 0.3 0.5 Bicycle 2.4 3.3 2.8 On foot 15.1 12.2 10.0 Other 0.4 0.6 0.5 Average distance (kms) 13.2 14.0 13.4 Source: ONS; KS15 Travel to Work; Key Statistics for urban areas
Due to Keynsham and Norton-Radstock’s proximity and relatively easy accessibility to Bath and Bristol these cities act as dormitory towns to some extent, with increasing pressure for housing development threatening employment land opportunities. The following statistics confirm this view:
Commuting Patterns Bath Keynsham Norton -Radstock B&NES and Saltford (Rural)
Live & Work in area 27,807 3,276 8,773 4,465 In commuting 24,151 7,220 12,791 4,054 Out commuting 11,060 8,957 19,281 8,274 Total inward/(outward) 13,091 (1,737) (6,490) -4,220 Source: Keynsham and Midsomer Norton and Radstock, Economic Profile, January 2006 and Bath, Economic Profile, August 2005, B&NES There are a total of 35,211 commuter movements in Bath, with 11,060 people out commuting and 24,151 in commuting, resulting in net commuting into the City of 13,091 people.
52 Solutions in Regional Development Section 5
Research - Economic
5.11 Commercial Land & Property The decline in manufacturing employment has resulted in a decline in manufacturing space. A number of manufacturing operations have closed and these have resulted in planning challenges for the existing use. The skewing of the commercial space provision towards offices is continuing with manufacturing employment declining and the sites previously used for this type of employment under pressure for other uses. In line with trends in the UK economy, B&NES has seen a decline in manufacturing employment. The decline in manufacturing employment is, of course, not unique to Bath. There has been a decline in manufacturing employment across the UK as a whole. The long term trends are shown below:
Total UK employment by activity 000s 1978-2005
35000
30000
25000
20000 TOTAL MANUFACTURING 15000 TOTAL SERVICES
10000
5000
0
8 2 80 84 86 90 94 96 9 00 0 04 9 0 1978 19 1982 19 19 1988 19 1992 1 19 19 20 20 2
Source: ONS employment data
Whilst manufacturing employment and the requirement for manufacturing space has been in decline, across the UK the service sector economy and the demand for associated office space has increased. Service sector employment has increased by 48% from 1978-2005.
53 Solutions in Regional Development Section 5
Research - Economic
The growth in ‘other office sectors3’ employment within B&NES has reflected this increase and in the period 1991-1996 other office employment in B&NES outperformed the average for Great Britain. Since 1996 however, the trend has been reversed and growth in ‘other office’ employment in B&NES has fallen below the Great Britain average. B&NES has also suffered a decline in public administration and defence employment well in excess of the UK average (see table above).
Employment Change Sectors % Change 1991 -2001 % Change 1996 -2001
GB GB GB Bath Bath Rural Rural B&NES B&NES Radstock Radstock Keynsham Keynsham
% Change 1991-1996 % Change 1996-2001
Manufacturing 2 -10 -17 0 -7 -3 -10 -31 -20 25 -11 -11 Distribution 67 36 -46 51 36 9 -20 -16 54 19 -7 3 Industrial Sectors 22 1 -21 12 3 0 -14 -26 -13 23 -10 -7 Public Admin & Defence 54 53 11 -6 242 11 -3 -37 -81 -96 -39 -4 0 8 5 Other Office Sectors 22 55 76 73 32 14 15 2 -49 49 10 22 All Sectors 1 -1 3 17 3 3 3 1 -15 20 3 10 Source: Business Location Requirements, Final Report Updated October 2003, Roger Tym & Partners
The Bath commercial land and property market (excluding retail) has total commercial space of 385,000 sq m (4,144,241 sq ft). This supply is skewed towards offices which account for 195,000 sq m (2,099,031 sq ft). Under this classification method, the remaining 190,700 sq m (2,052,745 sq ft) is industrial floor space. The Norton-Radstock area has a total stock of approximately 220,000 sq m of commercial floor space which represents around 23% of the total B&NES. Industrial accommodation accounts for largest part of this with Norton-Radstock having 29% of the area’s total supply. The data for Keynsham’s total stock of commercial floor space is not currently available but in the near future supply is predominantly dependent on Cadbury Somerdale site. The table below shows demand by activity for commercial property within each area in B&NES. Norton-Radstock has a higher proportion of industrial properties and Bath has a higher proportion of retail and hospitality sector properties.
3 ‘Other Office employment is office employment not covered by the Public Sector Administration & Defence classification used in the Annual Employment Survey
54 Solutions in Regional Development Section 5
Research - Economic
Demand for Commercial Premises by Sector 03-04 for B&NES Sector Category Bath (%) Keynsham (%) Norton- Radstock (%)
Industrial 26 39 48 Office 23 22 20 Retail & Hospitality 42 35 24 Other 9 4 8 Total 100 100 100 Source: Bath, Keynsham and Midsomer Norton & Radstock Economic Profiles, B&NES Council
Based on available data and using their ‘professional judgement’ a study completed by Roger Tym & Partners in October 2003 identified the following land profile for development in B&NES.
Development Land Identified for Employment
Site Location Size of the Dev. capacity 0 -5 years Dev. capacity 5 -10 years site (ha) Office Industrial Office Industrial m2 m2 m2 m2
Western Riverside Bath 10.0 46,000
MOD Foxhill Bath 7.5 NIL (48,000)
Former Clark’s Bath 1.8 5,600 Factory Rush Hill
Riverside Business Bath 0.2 1,850 Park (site 9)
Technology House Bath 0.0 1,420
Hygate Gears Bath 0.7 2,250
Cadbury Somerdale Keynsham 6.7 15,080 14,530 14,000 North
Cadbury Somerdale Keynsham 1.6 10,330 South
Rear of 34-42 St Keynsham 0.1 2,020 Keyna Court
Keynsham cinema Keynsham 0.1 650
55 Solutions in Regional Development Section 5
Research - Economic
Site Location Size of the Dev. capacity 0 -5 years Dev. capacity 5 -10 years site (ha) Office Industrial Office Industrial
m2 m2 m2 m2
St. Peter’s Factory Norton- 2.3 10,350 Radstock
Adjacent to St. Norton- 1.7 7,510 Peter’s Factory Radstock
Former Sewage Norton- 1.4 3,150 Works Welton Radstock Hollow
Adjacent Westfield Norton- 2.2 6,200 Industrial Estate Radstock
Curstons Powertech Norton- 1.8 700 Radstock
Wellsway Works Norton- 0.5 400 Radstock
South of Frome Norton- 0.3 1,000 Road Radstock
Old Mills Paulton Rural 13.5 60,750
Adjacent Rural 11.0 30,000 19,500 Peasedown By Pass
N.E. of Polestar Rural 3.9 14,900 Paulton
Polestar Paulton Rural 4.6 6,570
Kelston Sparks Rural 0.6 2,690 Stanton Drew
Radfords Chew Rural 0.5 1,500 Stoke
Total 25,620 80,630 60,530 112,170
Source: Business Location Requirements, Final Report Updated October 2003, Roger Tym & Partners
It can be seen from the table above that for office space the estimated supply until 2011 is mainly provided by Bath and Keynsham and the total area available is around 86,000 sq m. Out
56 Solutions in Regional Development Section 5
Research - Economic
of these, Bath’s Western Riverside development alone was estimated to provide 46,000 sq m and Keynsham Cadbury Somerdale site a further 27,500 sq m. According to the study completed (October 2003) by Roger Tym & Partners in October 2003, the employment and floor space demand forecast for B&NES for the period of 2001-2011 is as follows.
Employment and Floorspace Demand Forecast Sectors Change 2001 -11 jobs ‘ 000 Change 2001 -2011 jobs %
Bath Bath Rural Rural B&NES B&NES B&NES Radstock Radstock Keynsham Keynsham
Employee Jobs Industrial Sector -500 -100 -400 -300 -1,200 -9 -6 -13 -12 -10 All office Sectors 900 0 100 200 1,200 6 0 11 12 6 Non Business Space 3500 300 200 600 4,600 12 9 6 8 11 Sectors All Sectors 3,900 200 -100 500 4,600 8 3 -1 4 6
Net Floorspace Change (square meters) Industrial -17,500 -3,500 -14,000 -10,500 -42,000 Offices 18,000 0 2,000 4,000 24,000 Source: Business Location Requirements, Final Report Updated October 2003, Roger Tym & Partners
Roger Tym estimated that the total supply capacity for industrial space is 193,000 sq m which is entirely provided by one site in Keynsham (Cadbury Somerdale factory site) of 29,000 sq m and identified sites in Norton-Radstock ( 29,350 sq. m in seven sites) and surrounding rural areas. The rural areas have an estimated industrial capacity of 136,000 sq m with largest sites in Paulton and Peasedown St. John (Bath Business Park). The timescale of availability for these sites varies but there is no shortage of industrial sites outside Bath. It should also be noted that available sites do not necessarily translate directly into available industrial units. The tables above show that there is a demand of 24,000 sq m and a supply of 86,000 sq. m for office space. Although these figures appear to show that office space demand can be met very easily for B&NES this is not the case. When the demand figures are adjusted by adding provisions for the loss of office space during the future ten year period (taking historical trends) and the supply figure is reduced to remove constraint sites which are unlikely to be developed for the next five or more years from the list, Roger Tym report gives a five year supply of 4.4 years and a ten year supply of 14.7 years for B&NES.
57 Solutions in Regional Development Section 5
Research - Economic
This means for the next 5 years or longer the supply of land for office development falls short of occupier demand for B&NES. Office rental levels for B&NES vary significantly, with reasonably high rentals paid in the Bath City Centre which amounts to an average rental levels at £20 per square foot. This compares with other major locations as follows:
Prime Rentals – Selected Cities 2006 Approximate prime rentals £ per sq ft
London (West End) 83 London (City) 46 London (Mid Town) 43 London (Docklands) 43 London (South Bank) 37 Birmingham 27 Edinburgh 27 Manchester 27 Bristol 25 Leeds 25 Reading 24 Guildford 23 Glasgow 23 Watford 22 Cambridge 21 Oxford 21 Southampton 21 Bath 20 Newcastle 20 Bracknell 19 Cardiff 19 Liverpool 18 Exeter 17 Nottingham 17 Swindon 16 Plymouth 14 Belfast 13 Source: King Sturge Office Markets 2006 (above figures are rough values as they were transferred from graphical representations)
However the office rentals in Norton-Radstock are about £8-10 per sq. ft making the location potentially attractive in cost terms.
58 Solutions in Regional Development Section 5
Research - Economic
According to the King Sturge Office Markets 2006, Bath city’s availability of Grade A stock of office space has gone down and the office market is almost totally dependent upon the recycling and refurbishment of second-hand buildings. The take up for the year of 2005-06 is around 9,000 sq m, which is below average due to lack of availability of larger buildings and absence of any major transactions. New developments in the short term are limited due to lengthy and frustrating planning process with constant pressure on office development opportunities to revert to residential. King Sturge also reports that Bath may be attractive to some sectors like publishing, IT and media with a constant supply of quality graduates from the two universities. Commercial premises supply and demand by unit size for Bath, Keynsham and Norton- Radstock logged by B&NES Council economic development unit is provided in the table below:
Demand and Supply for Commercial Premises by size in B&NES 2003-04 Bath Keynsham Norton -Radstock Sq M (Sq. ft) Supply Demand Supply Demand Supply Demand (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) 0-46 (0-500) 24 26 6 36 44
46.5-92.9 (501 31 24 19 55 11 1000) 93-232 (1001-2500) 14 33 35 31
232.2-464.5 (2501 8 13 11 5000) 464.6-929 (5001 45 3 10 45 7 10000) 929.1 + (10001+) 4 19 25
Unspecified/Other 21 0 0
Source: Bath, Keynsham and Midsomer Norton & Radstock Economic Profiles, B&NES Council
The table above suggests that there is a demand for smaller office space. However, this may reflect the type of enquiries received by the B&NES Council. The King Sturge Office Markets 2006 identifies Chippenham as a successful competitor of Bath being more attractive to office demand within former Avon County area.
59 Solutions in Regional Development Section 5
Research - Economic
5.11 Conclusion B&NES has achieved nearly full employment when measured on a claimant count basis. Bath City has the highest percentage of economically inactive population which is expected due to its large student population. The skill levels of residents in B&NES are reasonable at a macro level but vary tremendously with Norton-Radstock recording significant skills issues relating not just to NVQ standards but also to levels of literacy and numeracy. There are a high percentage of public sector employees and a diminishing industrial sector. Bath has historically failed to attract large private sector employment, although statistics do show a high rate of business start ups compared to UK average. The lack of large scale employers can be seen as a drawback in terms of wealth creation. Average office space rental varies significantly within B&NES, where average rental is around £20 per sq ft in Bath to £8 per sq ft in Norton-Radstock and Keynsham.
60 Solutions in Regional Development Section 6
Research - Retail
6.1 Key Findings • Bath City Centre’s retail offer supports the shopping needs of the B&NES area and visitors to the area. It has a higher than average proportion of comparison shopping.
• Keynsham, Midsomer Norton, Radstock and the village centres primarily support the day- to-day shopping needs of their respective local households. As expected, all three town centres have a higher than average proportion of convenience shopping.
• Bath is ranked as the 28th most important UK shopping centre followed by Keynsham (685th), Midsomer Norton (912th) and Radstock (not ranked) by Management Horizons in their retail ranking analysis.
6.2 Introduction The retail economy is extremely important to B&NES and, in particular, the City of Bath. The continued success of Bath as a retail centre also allows sustained rental receipts to B&NES Council. The City has a large retail offer which includes a number of retail multiples providing a retail offer for the catchment area of Bath but augmented by an independent retail offer which serves both catchment area and visitor alike. The overall retail offer is significantly stronger than that found in cities of comparable size. There are a range of retail centres in B&NES which either compliment Bath or support local household. This section examines this retail offer and is set out in the following manner: � Retail space � Location and values � Type � Visitors � Expenditure � Ranking
6.3 Retail space � B&NES shopping centres can be broken down into the categories of City Centre, Town Centres, District Centres, Local Centres and Village Centres. � Bath is one of the main retail centres in the SW which can be partly attributable to visitors drawn because of its character and World Heritage Site status. This is demonstrated by a lower than average retail unit vacancy rate.
61 Solutions in Regional Development Section 6
Research - Retail
� Keynsham has a lower proportion of retail units compared with the national average. This reflects the outflow of expenditure from the town which is centrally placed between Bristol and Bath. � Midsomer Norton has a lower proportion of retail units compared with the national average but a lower than average retail unit vacancy rate. � Radstock is the smallest of the 4 centres and also has the highest vacancy rate.
The Draft RSS 2006 recognises that in major centres in the SW region there is strong demand from multiple retailers, coupled with local vacancy levels. However, there is still demand for out of town provision. A study by DTZ Pieda showed that, based on an annual growth in GVA of 2.8% and resultant population growth and spend, the region will need to plan for an increase in provision of retail floor space of between 1.31 and 1.97 million m2 by 2026, based on average sales densities of between £4,000 per m2 and £6,000 per m2, in addition to the current floor space in the region of 3.39 million m2 gross. This represents an increase of 38-58%.
B&NES B&NES states that a range and hierarchy of centres where investment in new retail and other development will be promoted should be identified and that other development will be promoted and existing provision enhanced. A suggested hierarchy is as follows:
62 Solutions in Regional Development Section 6
Research - Retail
HIERARCHY OF SHOPPING CENTRES
City Centre Bath central shopping area
Town Centres Keynsham, Midsomer Norton, Radstock
District Centres Moorland Road, Bath
Local Centres In Bath - Walcot Street, Margaret's Buildings, St James' Street, River Street Place, Lansdown Road, Nelson Place East and Cleveland Terrace/Place, London Road, Fairfield Park, Larkhall, Chelsea Road (Lower Weston), Weston High Street, Twerton, Southdown, 65-86 Lower Bristol Road, Wellsway (Bear Flat), Widcombe, Combe Down, Bradford Road (Combe Down) Frome Road/Bloomfield Road (Odd Down), Upper Bloomfield Road (Odd Down) Bathwick Hill and Bathwick Street.
In Keynsham - Queen's Road and Chandag Road
In Norton-Radstock – Westfield
Village centres Bathampton, Batheaston, Chew Magna, Paulton, Peasedown St John, Saltford, Timsbury and Whitchurch
Source: B&NES Local Plan 2003 The B&NES Local Plan stipulates that any retail development in the areas listed in the table above will be permitted where it is of a scale and type that is consistent with the existing retail function of the centre and is well integrated into the existing shopping pattern. Outside the centres identified in the shopping hierarchy the emphasis will be on protecting existing provision. However, there may be opportunities to provide new small-scale local shops or extend small shops e.g., in conjunction with new residential or mixed use development. The possible additional retail space which could be supported within B&NES was estimated by Nathaniel Lichfield in their retail study for B&NES.
63 Solutions in Regional Development Section 6
Research - Retail
Additional food store and convenience goods floorspace projections 2004 to 2007 2004 to 2011 Surplus Expenditure £m Bath 30.29 41.27 Keynsham (1.58) 0.86 Midsomer Norton/Radstock 2.69 6.77 Total 31.40 48.90 Net Sales Floorspace Sq M* Bath 2,754 to 3,029 3,752 to 4,127 Keynsham n/a 78 to 86 Midsomer Norton/Radstock 245 to 269 615 to 677 Total 2,999 to 3,298 4,445 to 4,890
*average turnover density of £10,000 to £11,000 per sq. m. net
Source: Nathanial Lichfield Report for B&NES 2004
Additional comparison goods floorspace projections in B&NES Type Minimum sales Maximum sales floorspace (sq. m. floorspace (sq. m. net)* 2004 to 2011 net)* 2004 to 2011 High street comparison 16,750 26,500 Large format comparison 9,500 15,300
*average turnover density of £10,000 to £11,000 per sq. m. net
Source: Nathanial Lichfield Report for B&NES 2004
Bath The Draft RSS 2006 identifies Bath as one of the main retail centres in the SW region. The central core of Bath is dominated by retail and it is important to consider the characteristics of this space in comparison with other cities. In 2004 Nathaniel Lichfield and Partners, commissioned by B&NES Council, estimated that there were 623 units within Bath City Centre providing 795,000 sq ft of retail space. This amount of retail space makes Bath comparable with Swindon but smaller than Bristol City Centre as a destination shopping centre. The retail space within the City Centre is dominated by A1 retail. This classification accounts for over 66% of the total. Overall studies support the view that Bath has a reasonably sized retail offer which is based on a large number of retail units housing a large number of retail multiples. These units are, however, small in size and Bath has a very limited supply of larger format modern retail units which are favoured by the retail multiples.
64 Solutions in Regional Development Section 6
Research - Retail
This retail mix contributes to Bath offering a different shopping experience to many other cities of a similar size. The very small units are more suited to independent retailers and some specialist product areas whilst conversely the City does not offer very large store formats preventing opportunities for the most successful retail operators to display their full product ranges. A detailed review of Bath City Centre is contained within the Bath Business Plan.
One scheme is planned which will seek to partially address this issue. The Southgate Centre was due to be redeveloped in the period January 2006 – Easter 2008, although contracts had not been finalised at the time of writing (July 2006) and the build programme had slipped accordingly. It is planned that this will provide a modern street type development leading to the creation of 35,348 sq ft of completely reconfigured space. The redevelopment will result in 15,839 sq ft additional new space but has the potential to reinvigorate this entire section of the City. If this project fails to be completed, the retail offer of Bath is likely to fall significantly behind Bristol as the Broadmead development is completed.
Keynsham Keynsham town centre serves the day to day shopping needs of local residents and those of the surrounding rural areas. At present, it comprises a range of both convenience and comparison shopping. There is no real presence of national multiples which has caused a significant diversion of expenditure from Keynsham to Bath and Bristol. In 2004, Keynsham town centre had 148 ground floor commercial units (2000: 156). The town centre has a lower proportion of Class A1 retail units compared with the national average and higher proportion of service uses. The vacancy rate is much lower than the national average at 4.1% and has fallen slightly from 5.1% in 2000.
Keynsham Town Centre Use Class Mix Type of Unit Number of Units Proportion of Total Number of Units (%) Keynsham GB Average
Class A1 (Retail) 70 47.3 57.4 Class A1 (Services) 19 12.8 9.1 Class A2 27 18.2 8.9 Class A3 20 13.5 12.7 Miscellaneous 6 4.1 1.5 Vacant / under construction 6 4.1 10.5 Total 148 100.0 100.0 Source: NLP Street Survey 2004 and Goad Plans
65 Solutions in Regional Development Section 6
Research - Retail
Midsomer Norton The Midsomer Norton town centre primarily serves the daily shopping and service needs of Norton-Radstock residents and those villages in the southern part of B&NES and northern Mendip District including Paulton and Peasedown St John. There is a good range of convenience shopping facilities, both within the town centre and out of-centre at Thicket Mead (which lies within the parish of Paulton). However, it has a lower proportion of Class A1 retail units compared with the national average. The town centre also provides for a range of day to day comparison goods shopping and residents tend to travel to Bath to meet their other shopping needs. The vacancy rate remains at approximately half the national average, although it is slightly higher than the rates in Bath and Keynsham.
Midsomer Norton Town Centre Use Class Mix Type of Unit Number of Units Proportion of Total Number of Units (%) Midsomer Norton GB Average
Class A1 (Retail) 60 47.2 57.4 Class A1 (Services) 14 11.1 9.1 Class A2 21 16.5 8.9 Class A3 18 14.2 12.7 Miscellaneous 7 5.5 1.5 Vacant / under construction 7 5.5 10.5 Total 127 100.0 100.0 Source: NLP Street Survey 2004 and Goad Plans
There are few medium or large units available that would be suitable for national multiples. Proposals funded by the Single Regeneration Budget (SRB) and taken forward by Midsomer Norton & Radstock Regeneration should help to enhance the centre by making better use of public spaces and improving linkages between different parts of the retail frontage. The number of retail units in Midsomer Norton town centre has decreased from 135 to 127 in the 4 years to 2004. This is due to several units on the edge of the centre, included in 2000, not included in the town centre boundary.
Radstock The Radstock town centre provides a small shopping area that is dominated by a large general store (Radco). The centre serves two shopping roles. The parade of shops and services acts as a local centre for Radstock residents and the Radco store serves a wider catchment area for food and comparison shopping. The centre currently has a high proportion of units in use for services other than retail and the vacancy rate is relatively high.
66 Solutions in Regional Development Section 6
Research - Retail
A Single Regeneration Budget award funded proposals to redevelop disused railway land adjacent to the current shopping area for mixed uses and this work has been taken forward by the Norton Radstock Regeneration (NRR) Company. The work should help to facilitate improvements to the centre. Improvements to pedestrian linkages between the Radco store and the rest of the centre have also been identified as a priority. Radstock has only 41 ground floor commercial units (2000: 53). The current vacancy rate is the highest of the four centres, with a concentration of vacant units on Wells Hill. Whilst Radstock appears to have adequate car parking, linkages between the Radco car park and the rest of the centre are not ideal.
Radstock Town Centre Use Class Mix Type of Unit Number of Units Proportion of Total Number of Units (%) Radstock GB Average
Class A1 (Retail) 22 53.7 57.4 Class A1 (Services) 5 12.5 9.1 Class A2 5 12.5 14.68.9 Class A3 6 14.6 12.7 Miscellaneous 0 0 1.5 Vacant / under construction 3 7.3 10.5 Total 41 100.0 100.0 Source: NLP Street Survey 2004 and Goad Plans
Moorland Road District Centre Within Bath, Moorland Road is a sizeable and vibrant District centre. It contains approximately 60 retail units, comprising a variety of small independent convenience shops, a number of comparison goods retailers (including national multiples) and a large food store. It mainly caters for the daily shopping needs of local residents and other services available. The low vacancy rate indicates that the centre is trading healthily. There is a paucity of retail provision in the South of the City which will become an issue if an urban extension is created.
Local and Village Centres Bath and the other towns of Keynsham and Midsomer Norton also contain a number of local neighbourhood centres, which provide for day to day and top-up shopping needs. These centres vary in size and significance according to their location and proximity to other centres. Outside the urban areas there are a number of villages that have concentrations of shops and other services (ie, a village centre). These function as local service centres for residents from there and surroundings settlements. Rural settlements which have a village centre are named in
67 Solutions in Regional Development Section 6
Research - Retail
the hierarchy of shopping centres table at the beginning of this section. Villages without a centre are Bathford, Bishop Sutton, Clutton/Temple Cloud, Farmborough and High Littleton. These settlements do, however, contain local shops which are more dispersed.
6.4 Location & Values • Prime retail rental levels are more expensive in Bath than in any other area of South West England with a maximum of rental of £2,000 per sq. m. The Centre represents a buoyant market relative to many of the comparative historic cities in the UK.
• Keynsham Town centre’s linear shopping area along is approximately 750 metres long. As a result, around 30% of visitors do walk to the centre. Peak rents in 2004 were around £430 per sq. m
• Midsomer Norton is twelve miles to the south west of Bath. Its key roles include convenience shopping, comparison shopping, entertainment and leisure and services. In 2004, prime retail rental levels were in the region of £215 per sq. m (2000: £160 per sq.m).
• Radstock is argued to be in need of additional retail and leisure development to support its designation as a town centre. In 2004, retail rental levels ranged from £80 - £185 per sq. m
Bath The retail space in Bath is concentrated along the North / South retail spine of Milsom Street, Union Street and Stall Street. There is further provision in the roads, alleys and arcades which lead away from this central spine whilst the current Southgate Centre represents the Southern extent of the central spine. Retail rentals in the City are high. This indicates a buoyancy in the Bath retail property market which is of course influenced by the limited supply of space and the demand from operators to gain a presence in the City. The comparative rates for other retail centres are illustrated in the table below:
68 Solutions in Regional Development Section 6
Research - Retail
Comparative Retail Rentals for South West England and Other Selected Locations Prime Rental £/m2 Secondary Rental Edge of Town retail £/m2 warehouse (non food) £/m2
Bath 2500 1250 200 Bristol 2000 925 220 Exeter 2000 850 240 Swindon 1900 500 200 Bournemouth 1700 1300 180 Plymouth 1650 900 200
York 1800 750 200 Edinburgh 3175 1540 300 Chester 2100 1700 290 Durham 1250 750 190 Cambridge 2375 1200 300 Oxford 2600 1250 290 Canterbury 2750 1000 175 Source: Valuation Office July 2005
Prime retail rental levels are more expensive in Bath than in any other area of South West England and represent a buoyant market relative to many of the comparative historic cities in the UK. There is also evidence that the decline in rental values away from the core is limited. Secondary rental levels in Bath are similar or higher to most of the cities examined above. Related to the high rental levels achieved in Bath, is the low level of vacancy. There are very few properties available for rent at any time. In 2004 Nathaniel Lichfield reported a very low level of availability. Any available units tended to be very small units in sub prime locations. Overall in 2004 the level of vacant units in Bath was 4% compared to a National average of 10.5%. Nathaniel Lichfield also remarked that there were several retailers with requirements for space in Bath – either existing tenants seeking additional or larger units, or potential new entrants.
Keynsham Keynsham Town centre has a linear shopping area along the High Street, extending approximately 750 metres. As a result, the peripheral areas at the north and southern end of the High Street are a reasonable distance from the prime shopping areas. As such, a significant proportion of visitors do walk to the centre (30%). The town’s main residential areas are located to the west and to the south east of the town centre. The south east part of the town is separated by the valley of the River Chew, which may act as a psychological barrier to pedestrian movement.
69 Solutions in Regional Development Section 6
Research - Retail
Local agents suggest that Zone A rents of £430 per sq m have been achieved. The highest letting was to Clinton Cards at 50/50A High St at just above this. This can be compared to a lease renewal on No 63 in March 1999 at £270 per m. These figures suggest that Zone A rents have increased significantly in the last four years.
Midsomer Norton Midsomer Norton is a small market town twelve miles to the south west of Bath. Its key roles include convenience shopping, comparison shopping, entertainment and leisure and services. The River Somer is a potentially attractive feature but acts as a barrier to pedestrian movement from one side of the High Street to the other. Pedestrian linkages between the Sainsbury store and the High Street are not ideal. Similar linkage problems exist at the Argos and Lidl food stores, whose entrances are set back from the High Street. In 2004, letting agents indicated that Midsomer Norton prime retail rental levels were in the region of £215 per sq. m (2000: £160 per sq.m). However, rents vary significantly along the linear high street. Rents are highest at the southern end. Yields within Midsomer Norton are comparable with other small towns in the area (10%-11%).
Radstock Radstock is the smallest of the 4 main centres in B&NES. It is in need of additional retail and leisure development to support its designation as a town centre. In 1999 prime rental levels were around £120 per sq. m, slightly lower than those achieved in Midsomer Norton (£160 per sq. m) and Keynsham (£170 per sq. m). Valuation Office Information is provided for Radstock in June 2003 suggests maximum rental levels in Radstock were around £185 per sq m, on The Street and near Radco. Other parts of the town centre were as follows:
• Fortescue Road around £170 per sq m
• Wells Road around £130 per sq m
• County Bridge around £130 per sq m
• Market Place around £120 per sq m
• Waldegrave Forecourt around £80 per sq m Source: Valuation Office, June 2003
6.5 Type • In accordance with planning policy B&NES Local Plan advises that future planned developments to increase or improve retail units are to be preferably implemented within existing centres.
70 Solutions in Regional Development Section 6
Research - Retail
• Bath has a lower than average proportion of convenience shopping units, whereas Keynsham, Midsomer Norton and Radstock are above average. The opposite can be said for comparison shopping.
• In 2004, a broad range of retailers were identified as having a confirmed requirement to establish a presence in Bath. Only 2 retailers (Farmfoods and Halfords) were identified for the remaining 3 town centres. Halfords has subsequently carried out an investment in Midsomer Norton.
The B&NES Local Plan states that projections can be primarily met within existing centres. B&NES Local Plan gives preference to city and town centre sites, followed by edge-of-centre sites in district and local centres and only then out-of-centre sites that are accessible by a variety of means of transport. In a similar vein, the Draft RSS 2006 states that pressures for developing further out of town retail centres should be resisted. Proposals for facilities at out-of-town centre locations should not be detrimental to the regeneration, vitality and viability of the centre. The convenience floorspace projections should be principally met by the replacement of the existing Somerfield store in Southgate in Bath’s central shopping area with a larger food store (up to approximately 1,500 sq. m. net) and a new medium to large food store in Keynsham town centre (up to approximately 2,000 sq. m. net). A site in Charlton Road has been identified and marketed for food retail. Both locations lie within existing centres and the provision of a food store in Keynsham could help to reduce the existing high level of expenditure outflow to Bristol and increase town centre activity. The B&NES Local Plan did not make further provision in Midsomer Norton and Radstock as existing provision is regarded as being sufficient to meet the needs of residents of the town and surrounding villages. Recent investments have been made by Sainsbury (through the purchase of a Safeway store not included within the Morrison acquisition) and Tesco. Nathaniel Lichfield’s City and Town Centre Study October 2004 concluded that convenience goods retail floorspace within B&NES was trading above average in 2004 but, in qualitative terms, the provision of food superstores was poorest in the South of Bath. The majority of the comparison shopping future developments in B&NES will be undertaken at the Southgate Centre and potentially at the land between St. John’s Court and Charlton Road, Keynsham. In addition there may be scope for some small-scale comparison shopping provision elsewhere within the central shopping area or, if no sites are available, on the edge of the central shopping area. The B&NES Local Plan had not identified any opportunities for comparison shopping in Midsomer Norton and Radstock town centres.
71 Solutions in Regional Development Section 6
Research - Retail
Retail mix comparative analysis
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Comparison 50% 40% Convenience 30% Percentage 20% 10% 0% Bath Keynsham Midsomer Radstock GB Norton average Place
Source: Nathanial Lichfield Report for B&NES 2004 and Goad Plans (Nov 2003)
Bath retail mix comparative analysis Type of unit % Total A1 Units % A1 Gross Floorspace Bath GB Average Bath GB Average Convenience 12.1 16.2% 7.4 24.0 Comparison 87.9 83.8% 92.6 76.0 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: Nathanial Lichfield Report for B&NES 2004 and Goad Plans (Nov 2003)
Keynsham retail mix comparative analysis Type of unit % Total A1 Units % A1 Gross Floorspace Keynsham GB Average Keynsham GB Average Convenience 17.1 16.2 29.7 24.0 Comparison 82.9 83.8 70.3 76.0 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: Nathanial Lichfield Report for B&NES 2004 and Goad Plans (Nov 2003)
72 Solutions in Regional Development Section 6
Research - Retail
Midsomer Norton retail mix comparative analysis Type of unit % Total A1 Units % A1 Gross Floorspace Midsomer GB Average Midsomer GB Average Norton Norton Convenience 21.5 16.2 46.0 24.0 Comparison 78.5 83.8 54.0 76.0 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: Nathanial Lichfield Report for B&NES 2004 and Goad Plans (Nov 2003)
Radstock retail mix comparative analysis Type of unit % Total A1 Units % A1 Gross Floorspace Radstock GB Average Radstock GB Average Convenience 22.7 16.2 37.6 24.0 Comparison 77.3 83.8 62.4 76.0 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: Nathanial Lichfield Report for B&NES 2004 and Goad Plans (Nov 2003)
Total retail units within the 4 main B&NES centres are shown in the pie chart below. Each area has been discussed separately in more detail.
Retail units
17, 3% 49, 10% Bath 58, 12% Keynsham Midsomer Norton Radstock
363, 75%
Source: Nathanial Lichfield Report for B&NES 2004 and Goad Plans (Nov 2003)
73 Solutions in Regional Development Section 6
Research - Retail
Bath A full analysis of the Bath retail offer is contained within the Bath Business Plan.
Keynsham Keynsham has a reasonable selection of comparison shopping. The high proportion of comparison shops is in the ‘other’ category, which includes nine charity shops. Keynsham currently has a comparatively low provision of the following types of comparison goods compared to the national average:
• Clothing and footwear
• DIY, hardware and homewares
• Electrical and gas
• Music and photography shops.
Many of these types of retailers, especially the DIY and homewares traders prefer large format stores not readily available in Keynsham. On the other hand, the town centre has a relatively high provision, compared to the national average, of:
• Booksellers, arts, crafts and stationers;
• Chemists, drug stores and opticians; and
• Florists, nurserymen and seeds men
74 Solutions in Regional Development Section 6
Research - Retail
Keynsham Town Centre – Breakdown of Comparison Units Keynsham Town Centre GB Average Units % %
Clothing and Footwear 10 17.2 26.1 Furniture, carpets and textiles 4 7.0 9.7 Booksellers, arts, crafts & stationers 7 12.1 9.4 Electrical, gas, music & photography 3 5.2 10.8 DIY, hardware & homewares 2 3.4 6.3 China, glass, gifts & fancy goods 2 3.4 4.0 Cars, motorcycles & motor accessories 1 1.7 3.0 Chemists, drug stores & opticians 7 12.1 7.8 Variety, department & catalogue 2 3.4 2.3 Florists, nurserymen & seedsmen 3 5.2 2.3 Toys, hobby, cycle & sport 3 5.2 5.6 Jewellers 2 3.4 4.7 Other 12 20.7 7.9
Total 58 100 100 Source: Nathaniel Litchfield Report to B&NES 2004
In 2004 there was just 1 identified retailer who stated they had a requirement for a unit in Keynsham.
Retailers with a Confirmed Requirement for Keynsham Retailer Type
Ρ Farmfoods Ρ Food
Source: Nathaniel Lichfield study for B&NES 2004
Midsomer Norton The centre has a high proportion of retail floorspace devoted to the sale of convenience goods, due to the two main food stores (Sainsburys and Lidl) and Tesco operating at Old Mills. As a result, many customers visit the town centre frequently, ie, over 60% of shoppers visit at least 2 3 times a week. There is a lack of large format stores which would be suitable for DIY, hardware and homewares retailers. The only current provision as at March 2004 is Caswells at the western end of the High Street, which has had to knock through four adjacent units to form a unit large enough. Compared to the national averages, Midsomer Norton is well served for toys, hobby, cycle and sports goods.
75 Solutions in Regional Development Section 6
Research - Retail
Midsomer Norton Town Centre – Breakdown of Compararison Units Midsomer GB Average Units % %
Clothing and Footwear 8 16.3 26.1 Furniture, carpets and textiles 6 12.3 9.7 Booksellers, arts, crafts & stationers 2 4.1 9.4 Electrical, gas, music & photography 6 12.3 10.8 DIY, hardware & homewares 1 2.0 6.3 China, glass, gifts & fancy goods 3 6.1 4.0 Cars, motorcycles & motor accessories 1 2.0 3.0 Chemists, drug stores & opticians 5 10.2 7.8 Variety, department & catalogue 4 8.2 2.3 Florists, nurserymen & seedsmen 2 4.1 2.3 Toys, hobby, cycle & sport 5 10.2 5.6 Jewellers 1 2.0 4.7 Other 5 10.2 7.9
Total 49 100 100 Source: Nathaniel Litchfield Report to B&NES 2004 There were only 2 convenience and comparison retailers with a requirement to have a presence in Midsomer Norton.
Retailers with a Confirmed Requirement for Midsomer Norton Retailer Type
Ρ Farmfoods Ρ Food
Ρ Halfords Ρ Motor accessories
Source: Nathaniel Lichfield study for B&NES
Radstock Radstock is a very small shopping centre dominated by the Radco superstore. The centre has two key roles. The parade of shops/services acts as a local neighbourhood shopping centre for local residents within Radstock but the Radco store has a wider catchment area for food and grocery and for comparison shopping. The Mining Museum, pubs and restaurants attract leisure visitors. Radstock has a very small selection of comparison shops. A number of key comparison sectors have little availability in the centre. However, the centre has a small number of specialist independent comparison shops that one would not normally expect to find in local shopping
76 Solutions in Regional Development Section 6
Research - Retail
centres, eg, Automania, Bike It Cycles and Pets Choice. There are also two large furniture shops.
Radstock Town Centre – Breakdown of Compararison Units Radstock GB Average Units % %
Clothing and Footwear 1 5.9 26.1 Furniture, carpets and textiles 3 17.6 9.7 Booksellers, arts, crafts & stationers 1 5.9 9.4 Electrical, gas, music & photography 2 11.8 10.8 DIY, hardware & homewares 2 11.8 6.3 China, glass, gifts & fancy goods 0 0 4.0 Cars, motorcycles & motor accessories 1 5.9 3.0 Chemists, drug stores & opticians 2 11.8 7.8 Variety, department & catalogue 1 5.9 2.3 Florists, nurserymen & seedsmen 1 5.9 2.3 Toys, hobby, cycle & sport 1 5.9 5.6 Jewellers 0 0 4.7 Other 2 11.8 7.9
Total 17 100 100 Source: Nathaniel Litchfield Report to B&NES 2004 There were no identified confirmed requirement for retailers for Radstock in 2004.
6.6 Visitors • Shopping is the significant reason for people visiting the 4 main centres in B&NES.
• Non-food shopping is the main activity in Bath.
• Keynsham is more evenly split between food and non-food shopping.
• Food shopping was the main activity undertaken by shopping visitors to Radstock and Midsomer Norton
In the four main centres in B&NES the main reason for visiting was shopping. At least 53% of respondents were shopping visitors in all four centres.
77 Solutions in Regional Development Section 6
Research - Retail
Reasons for Visit - Activity Bath Keynsham Midsomer Radstock % % % %
Shopping 53.3 67.2 52.8 59.2 Work/business purpose 16.5 10.0 5.6 9.6 Services, eg, banks, travel agents, 8.4 26.4 30.4 13.6 hairdressers Social/leisure reasons 7.1 5.6 9.2 8.8 Healthcare 3.1 5.2 6.8 7.2 Tourism/Sight seeing 9.8 0 0 0 Other 13.8 8.0 15.2 7.6
Source: NEMS Street Survey 2004 NB: The figures add up to more than 100% as some respondents gave more than one answer
Food shopping was the main activity undertaken by shopping visitors to Radstock and Midsomer Norton. Non-food shopping was the main activity in Bath, whilst Keynsham was more evenly split between food and non-food shopping.
Reasons for Visit – Type of Shopping Bath Keynsham Midsomer Radstock % % % %
Non-food only 59.7 28.9 33.3 16.2 Food and non-food 29.0 33.7 21.2 12.8 Food only 11.3 37.4 45.5 71.0 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: NEMS Street Survey 2004
Breaking down B&NES into zones by postcode, household shopping destinations were analysed. The residents in the study area do most of their household’s main food and grocery shopping at large food stores close to their home. In zone 1 a significant proportion of main food shopping is undertaken at Sainsbury’s, Safeway and Waitrose within or close to Bath City Centre. With regards to non-food shopping Bath City centre attracts customers from across the study area. Bristol is the main non food shopping destination for zones 2 and 6 to the West of B&NES. Trowbridge is the main non-food shopping destination for the East of Bath (zone 8)
78 Solutions in Regional Development Section 6
Research - Retail
and Frome is the main destination for households to the south of B&NES (zone 7 – Frome and South of Norton-Radstock).
Household shopping destinations Shopping Destination Zone Primary main food Non -food
Zone 1 City of Bath Sainsbury, Bath 42% Bath 90.9% Safeway, Bath 17.1% Bristol 3.2% Waitrose, Bath 12.7% Other 1.6% Asda, Longwell Green 10.3% Zone 2 Asda, Longwell Green 41.4% Bristol 41.4% Keynsham/Saltford Tesco, Brislington 18.6% Bath 28.6% Somerfield, Keynsham 17.1% Keynsham 12.9% Local shops 5.7% Longwell Green 7.1% Zone 3 Norton/Radstock Tesco, Paulton/Midsomer Norton 13.7% Bath 64.4% Safeway, Midsomer Norton 13.7% Midsomer Norton 21.9% Trowbridge 4.1% Other 4.1% Zone 4 North of Bath Sainsbury, Chippenham 27.1% Bath 72.9% (Rural) Waitrose, Bath 14.6% 16.7% Safeway, Bath 12.5% Bristol 4.2% Asda, Longwell Green 10.4% Zone 5 South of Bath Sainsbury, Bath 31% Bath 83.3% (Rural) Tesco, Paulton/Midsomer Norton 26.2% Longwell Green 4.8% Asda, Longwell Green 9.5% Midsomer Norton 4.8% Zone 6 Chew Valley Tesco, Paulton/Midsomer Norton 28.3% Bristol 83.3% Co-op, Chew Magna 15.2% Bath 30.4% Asda, Whitchurch 13% Other 10.9% Tesco, Brislington 13% Cribbs Causeway/The Sainsbury, Bristol 10.9% Mall 6.5% Zone 7 Frome and South Sainsbury, Frome 51.9% Frome 43.5% of Norton/Radstock Safeway, Frome 17.9% Bath 29.2% Asda, Trowbridge 9.4% Trowbridge 20.8% Zone 8 East of Bath Tesco, Trowbridge 53% Trowbridge 57.6% (incl. Bradford) Asda, Trowbridge 31.8% Bath 33.3% Budgens, Bradford on Avon 4.5% Other 4.5%
Source: NEMS Household Survey 2004
During the NEMS Street Survey 2004 visitors were asked how much they would spend on different items during their visit. The highest average spend per visit was in Bath (£47.97).
79 Solutions in Regional Development Section 6
Research - Retail
This was nearly double the average of Keynsham (£24.04) and significantly higher than both Midsomer Norton and Radstock (between £15 and £17 per visitor). During the period 2000 to 2004, Bath and Keynsham have experienced increasing total average visitor expenditure growth of 35 % and 41% respectively. Midsomer Norton and Radstock, on the other hand, have experienced a decrease during this period of 15% and 27%.
Frequency of shopping trips The NEMS Street Survey 2004 found that the majority of respondents visit the centres at least once a week. Over 82% visit Keynsham and Midsomer Norton regularly (once a week or more), compared with 71% in Radstock. In Bath, the proportion of regular visitors had fallen in the 4 years to 2004 from 3% to 57% whilst the proportion of occasional visitors (those visiting once a month or less) rose from 29% to 34%. This may be an indication that the range of shops and services available in the City centre are becoming more specialist and catering less for everyday needs and/or that the centre is becoming more popular for destination shopping.
Bath Experian has completed a large amount of work on retail catchment areas. Retail catchment areas are complex because they involve the examination of a number of factors including: � The overall attractiveness of a centre � The population within a specific drive time � Competing centres with intersecting catchment areas These factors can be modelled to create notional catchment areas for different cities. In the most sophisticated iterations of these models, the catchment areas are drawn for different types of retail. A simple drive time area of Bath demonstrates that within this 30 minute catchment zone is a population of 826,150 people.
6.7 Expenditure • Despite net outflows in relation to ‘bulky goods’ expenditure, Bath is estimated to gain from a net inflow of comparative expenditure. Experian estimate that total retail expenditure in the Bath catchment area (which encompasses B&NES) is £450m whereas in a slightly different approach Nathaniel Lichfield assume that £526m of comparison goods shopping is made in the B&NES area. Both Nathaniel Lichfield and Experian estimate that c£100m of comparative retail ‘leaks’ out of Bath. Experian suggest that this will mainly relate to ‘bulky goods’. Despite this leakage, however, Nathaniel Lichfield estimate that overall Bath gains a net inflow of comparative expenditure amounting to £130m from outside the B&NES area (excluding tourist visitors).
80 Solutions in Regional Development Section 6
Research - Retail
These estimates are all subject to survey and modelling data which has not been independently assessed by Ernst & Young. The retail sector is dynamic and the impact of alternative forms of trading is unclear. Internet shopping is expected to account for an increasing proportion of total expenditure although it is currently not known how great this increase will be nor what impact it will have on future retail floorspace requirements.
6.8 Ranking • Bath was ranked as the 28th most important shopping centre in the UK in 2004.
• Further down the league table were Keynsham (685th) and Midsomer Norton (912th)
• Due to the size of Radstock, it was not included in the league. The vitality of any City or Town Centre relies to a large extent on its retail offer. The shoppers help drive the local economy, not simply through their retail expenditure but also through their contribution to bars, restaurants, car park revenues and other visitor amenities. The better the retail offer the further people are prepared to travel for their visit. Catchment from a wider area increases the potential visitor numbers which provides a greater level of expenditure in the City, which in turn attracts further demand from retailers. This virtuous spiral continues to drive the local economy.
81 Solutions in Regional Development Section 6
Research - Retail
Management Horizons UK Shopping Index 2003/04 – SW Centres 2003 -2004 Ranking Rank change 2003 -04from 2000 -01
Bristol 23 Going down Cheltenham 24 No change Bath 28 Going up Swindon 47 Going up Gloucester 89 Going down Bristol, Cribbs Causeway 100 Going down Bristol, Clifton 257 Going up Trowbridge 317 Going down Chippenham 351 Going down Yate 351 Going up Bristol, Bedminster 415 Going up Swindon, Outer Village 445 Going down Frome 524 Going up Warminster 538 Going down Bristol, Kingswood 546 Going down Clevedon 624 Going up Keynsham 685 Going down Street 716 Going up Melksham 743 Going up Midsomer Norton 912 n/a Portishead 1268 n/a Shepton Mallet 1268 n/a Dursley 1449 n/a
Source: Nathanial Lichfield Study for B&NES 2004
6.9 Conclusion The City of Bath has a strong retail offer which is significantly stronger than that found in cities of a similar size. The market is buoyant with retail rental values significantly higher and vacancy rates significantly below many other larger locations. Keynsham, Midomer Norton and Radstock support their respective local residents and immediate surrounding area’s convenience shopping habits. As such, relative to Bath, they have a higher proportion of convenience shopping units. The same can be said for the rural settlements of B&NES. As such, the aim for these areas is to maintain the shopping provision here and improve the attractiveness and vibrancy of these centres. The exception is Radstock which requires additional retail and leisure development to support its designation as a town centre.
82 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
7.1 Key findings
• There is a strong residential property market in Bath and the surrounding areas. • The private rented market is strong in B&NES. A main factor of this is due to a lower than required supply of social housing. Within Bath, the private rental sector, appears to be dominated by the student market. • Housing stock in B&NES is in good condition but there appears to be a lack of smaller properties. • B&NES is the 10th most expensive housing location in the country. • B&NES has a housing affordability issue. This is due to high house prices which, despite high employment in the area, are offset by a high proportion of low to mid household incomes. • The RSS in the South West has set out a requirement for additional housing in the next twenty years and B&NES has an identified role to play. • The B&NES Council Homeseekers register suggests an increase in waiting lists for social housing.
7.2 Introduction The housing section of the report considers:
• house price trends and private housing market
• rental market
• housing stock
• tenure
• housing locations in the B&NES Council area
• planning total housing numbers
• planning levels of affordable housing
• development sites for new housing
• affordability definition and issue
• affordable housing need
• affordable housing need – dwelling and tenure types
• other information
83 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
7.3 House price trends and private housing market • B&NES has experienced average house prices which have been greater than the average for the whole of England. • House price growth in B&NES has totalled 182% in the period 1996 to 2004. During the same period, England experienced growth of 148.9%. • Although house price growth has been experienced throughout the Authority, house prices have been skewed upwards by particularly high prices in Bath. House prices in B&NES are high. In 2004, the average price for B&NES was £235,000 which is 29% higher than the England average (£181,000). This has risen by 182% since 1996 when the average price was £83,000. By comparison, in the West of England, Bristol had the highest increase (200%) and South Gloucestershire the lowest (164%). Trends for B&NES are on a par with those of the SE average rather than the South West.
Mean house prices 1996 to 2004 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
B&NES 83,302 87,428 98,405 113,885 142,673 156,108 184,108 216,105 234,767 Bristol 64,443 72,081 79,869 88,874 106,939 121,271 148,507 176,568 193,057 Reading 72,047 81,377 91,581 111,824 132,495 143,312 170,775 180,470 190,416 SW 69,348 75,570 82,110 91,532 106,151 119,823 144,935 169,976 191,697 SE 87,068 95,527 107,951 120,743 141,908 157,244 181,911 204,055 223,447 England 73,117 80,599 87,778 98,385 110,589 121,769 141,108 159,357 181,330 Source: ODPM/Land Registry
Growth in house prices 1996 to 2004 1996 to 2000 2000 to 2004 1996 to 2004
B&NES 71.3% 64.5% 181.8% Bristol 65.9% 80.5% 199.6% Reading 83.9% 43.7% 164.3% SW 53.1% 80.6% 176.4% SE 63.0% 57.5% 156.6% England 51.2% 64.0% 148.9% Source: ODPM/Land Registry
This data is illustrated in the graph below.
84 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
Growth in house prices 1996 to 2004
Mean house prices 1996 to 2004
250,000
230,000 BNES Bristol 210,000 Reading 190,000 SW 170,000 SE England 150,000
130,000
110,000 Mean Mean house prices £
90,000
70,000
50,000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year
By May 2006 B&NES had been recognised as being within the top ten most expensive housing locations within the UK. The average house price ‘league table’ is shown below:
UK House Price League Table 2006 Location Average House Price Annual Growth Rate £ %
Windsor & Maidenhead 335,761 1.1 Surrey 318,980 8 Buckinghamshire 307,451 8 Greater London 306,664 5.9 Wokingham 272,890 3.8 Poole 261,746 4.1 Oxfordshire 257,328 1.6 Hertfordshire 257,311 3.2 West Berkshire 255,346 2.6 B&NES 249,488 3.6 Source: BBC interpretation of Land Registry data May 2006
85 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
House Prices in B&NES In the period April to June 2005 average house prices in B&NES were £238,000. The average for Bath during the same period (as per post code areas shown in the table below) was £281,000. Although this is based on a small sample size over a short period, this does indicate that Bath house prices are higher than the average for B&NES. The table below shows the average prices of dwellings sold (July to September) within postcode sectors in and around Midsomer Norton and Radstock.
Average price of dwellings sold in the Midsomer Norton & Radstock Area during July to September BA3 2 BA3 3 2000 2005 % 2000 2005 % increase increase
Detached £109,272 £231,945 112% £110,687 £248,500 125% Semi-detached £80,850 £159,240 97% £85,579 £145,426 70% Terraced £76,263 £131,868 73% £67,073 £139,265 108% Flat/Maisonette £54,000 £102,418 90% £49,605 Overall £83,625 £174,250 108% £78,588 £154,469 97% *cells with no value indicate that no dwellings of this type were sold in the recorded period Source: B&NES Midsomer Norton and Radstock Economic Profile January 2006 There was an increase of between 97% and 108% in the Midsomer Norton and Radstock areas from 2000 to 2005. However, despite this increase being significant, the absolute values compared to Bath are somewhat less expensive.
86 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
Average dwelling prices (£), 2002
Changes of England South B&NES Bath & Keynsham Midsomer Rural ownership by & Wales West Bath Norton & dwelling Suburbs Radstock price, price indicators by dwelling type:
Detached 208,435 214,456 282,722 345,840 247,230 170,179 280,230 Mean 1 2
Semi- 119,748 128,364 166,492 225,512 146,514 109,872 169,122 Detached Mean 1 2
Terraced 103,351 109,133 154,647 192,380 126,849 91,453 120,319 Mean 1 2
Flat - Mean 1 2 138,762 107,005 152,811 139,369 96,821 72,723 171,563
Flat - Mean 1 2 138,370 144,935 184,108 197,227 147,463 111,279 216,551
1 Due to a policy requirement, the 2001 dataset was originally referenced to 1998 geographic boundaries. In accordance with the agreed policy for Neighbourhood Statistics, this dataset has now been referenced to the 2003 Census Area Statistics wards, local/unitary authorities, GORs and countries. 2 Not National Statistics 3 All of the rent values quoted are weekly rents and are in UK Pounds. 4 Each area average has been calculated by dividing the totals of the council wards in that area by the number of wards, ie, a weighted average has not been calculated. Source: www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk
87 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
Average Dwelling Prices (£) 2002
400,000 350,000 England & Wales 300,000 South West 250,000 B&NES Bath & Bath Suburbs
£ 200,000 Keynsham 150,000 Norton Radstock Rural 100,000 50,000 - Detached Semi- Terraced Flat All Detached Dwellings
The trend shows that Bath & Bath suburbs and the Rural wards demonstrate the highest house prices. Norton-Radstock and Keynsham show a lower house price trend with Keynsham in line with the South West region.
7.4 Rental market • The private rental sector is stronger in B&NES than in WoE, SW and England. • Major reasons for the strong private rented sector is the increasing affordability gap between household incomes and house prices. • In Bath, the private rented market appears to be dominated by the student market. Accurate private rental data is more difficult to obtain than house price data. However, based on 2001-2002 data, the private rental market was stronger in B&NES than the West of England, SW and England. The private rented market is strong in Bath and appears to be dominated by the student market. Average market rents per week in 2001-2002 are shown in the Table below:
88 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
Average rent per Week in 2001/02
Area £
B&NES 101 Bristol 86.5 N. Somerset 93.5 S Gloucestershire 96.5 West of England 92 South West 81 England 80.5 Source: West of England Sub-Regional Housing Study, Main Report, An Independent Report, DTZ, May 2004 DTZ suggested in their study for the West of England Sub-Regional Housing Study (May 2004) that local variations within West of England probably reflect different composition of private rented stock rather than a fundamental difference in demand and supply. Data in the report conducted by Knight Frank for Grosvenor suggested that average private rents in B&NES were £116 (based on net rents excluding service charges) which exceeded other areas in the SW and the national average by 11%. There is anecdotal evidence to suggest that buy-to-let investors have been acquiring stock at the lower end of the market attracted by Bath’s increasing student population. For example, it is suggested that in Twerton 1,000 students are living in private rented accommodation and in Brougham Hayes nearly 50% of stock is let to students. Rental income from students is reported to be typically £800-£1,000 per house per month in the B&NES Affordable Housing Strategy. Average rental prices for different types of dwellings in the B&NES Affordable Housing Strategy suggest that values could be even higher and circa 130% higher than social rented values. B&NES reported rent per week 1 bed apartment 2 bed apartment 3 bed house 4 bed house / house
Average private 125 158 181 216 rent per week Average RSL 56 69 78 89 rent per week Source: B&NES Affordable Housing Strategy 2004-2007: “Delivering affordable homes for local people”
89 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
7.5 Housing stock • In 2002, B&NES housing stock totalled 72,100. • 97.2% of housing stock in B&NES was occupied in 2002. As a result, in 2002 there were 70,081 dwellings housing a Local Authority population of 169,500 with an average population per dwelling of 2.42. • 25% of what is considered to be “unfit” housing stock within the West of England is concentrated in the B&NES District. • Housing completions are currently falling behind the targets for both the B&NES Local Plan and the RSS. • There are a shortage of 1-2 bedroomed properties in the District.
According to the DTZ West of England Sub-regional Housing Study, the total dwelling stock in B&NES rose from 67,900 in 1991 to 72,100 in 2002. This represented a rise of 6.2%. This rise was below the West of England average of 8.9%. Across the West of England, the overall the proportion of occupied dwelling space has increased from 94.8% to 97.2% of the total housing stock between 1991 and 2001 suggesting pressure in the residential market. 25% of what is considered to be “unfit” housing stock within the West of England is concentrated in the B&NES District. A reason for this can be related to the predominance of older, private sector housing. Total housing stock for West of England up to 2001 is shown in the table below:
Housing stock, occupancy and completions Area Total Dwelling Stock Housing Occupied Completions Dwelling Space % 1991 2001 2002 1991 -2001 1991 2001
B&NES 67,900 71,300 72,100 4,100 94.2 97.1 Bristol 162,600 169,700 170,800 7,100 94.4 97.0 N. Somerset 73,200 80,100 80,000 7,200 94.5 96.6 S. Gloucestershire 86,700 102,000 102,400 14,400 96.3 98.2 West of England 390,200 422,900 425,100 32,700 94.8 97.2 Source: West of England Sub-Regional Housing Study, Main Report, An Independent Report, DTZ, May 2004 - Original data source: Census/JSPTU
Housing completions Housing completions data for B&NES were collected in the B&NES Residential Land Survey 2005 and trends are shown in the table and graph below. Total completions for the period 1990/1991 to 2000/2001 (4,539) differs slightly from the Census data potentially due to Census data taking into account demolitions but overall, the total numbers of housing completions fall
90 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
slightly behind Local Plan targets for B&NES and behind target for Bath (refer to Section 8.8). Average completions per year were 385. Housing completion requirements to meet planning targets is discussed in more detail in Section 8.8.
Annual housing completions since 1989 Year Total number of units
1989/90 471 1990/91 469 1991/92 389 1992/93 302 1993/94 261 1994/95 241 1995/96 551 1996/97 555 1997/98 488 1998/99 650 1999/00 371 2000/01 262 2001/02 208 2002/03 338 2003/04 376 2004/05 225
Total 6,157 Average 385 Source: B&NES Residential Land Survey 2005
The following graphs display actual and estimated housing completions. The main conclusions from these graphs are that both the B&NES Local Plan and the Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) for South West England recognise that there is a future requirement for more housing. However, there is some discrepancy between estimates with the RSS recommending a significantly higher amount of completions than the B&NES Local Plan. This discrepancy in view on the level of annual housing completions required results in a cumulative difference of 7772 completions in 20 years time (the RSS considers the completions required during the years to 2026/27).
91 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
Total housing completions (Bath Local Plan and Wansdyke Local Plan areas)
700 600 500 400 300 200
100 0 Totalhousing completions 0 1 4 7 1 3 4 5 9 9 9 0 0/9 1/92 4/95 7/98 0/0 1/02 3/0 4/0 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 1989/ 1 1 1992/931993/ 1 1995/961996/ 1 1998/991999/00 2 2 2002/ 2 2 Year
Source: B&NES Residential Land Survey 2005
Housing completions - actual v estimated v recommended 900 B&NES Council 800 Residential Land 700 Survey 2004 600 actual completions 500 400 Local Plan 300 estimated
Number Number of 200 completions completions 100 0 RSS 2006 1 5 9 3 1 9 /9 9 recommended 0/ 8/ 8/19 2/23 6/27 9 9 1 2 2 9 9 0 0 0 completions 1 1994 1 2002/02006/072010/1 2014/152 2 2 Year
Source: B&NES Residential Land Survey 2005, B&NES Local Plan, RSS 2006
92 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
Cumulative housing completions forecast - B&NES v RSS
18000
16000
14000
12000 10000 B&NES Local Plan
8000
6000 Regional Spacial 4000 Strategy Aggregate number completions of number Aggregate 2000 0
5 9 3 7 1 5 /0 /0 /1 /1 /2 /2 4 8 2 6 0 4 0 0 1 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2002/03 2 2006/07 2 2010/11 2 2014/15 2 2018/19 2 2022/23 2 2026/27
Source: B&NES Local Plan, RSS 2006
Dwelling stock type According to Knight Frank in their report for Grosvenor, out of the estimated B&NES stock, houses make up 79.0% of the total stock (70.4% for Bath itself). B&NES has significantly more converted flats and less purpose-built flats that the GB average (10.5% for B&NES vs 15.3% for GB). The housing stock in B&NES by number of bedrooms in 2000 is shown in the table below. Proportion of accommodation by number of bedrooms 1 bed 2 bed 3 bed 4+ bed
Bath 11% 28% 42% 19% Keynsham 10% 18% 52% 20% Norton-Radstock 5% 26% 50% 19% Rural areas 5% 19% 46% 30% B&NES total 9% 24% 45% 22% Source: B&NES Local Plan 1996-2011 - Includes changes up to the Pre-Enquiry Changes, November 2004
93 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
Proportion of accomodation by number of bedrooms (2004) Bath
11% 19% 1 bed 2 bed 3 bed 28% 4 bed
42%
Source: B&NES Local Plan 1996-2011 - Includes changes up to the Pre-Enquiry Changes, November 2004
Proportion of accomodation by number of bedrooms (2004) Keynsham
10% 20%
18% 1 bed 2 bed 3 bed 4 bed
52%
Source: B&NES Local Plan 1996-2011 - Includes changes up to the Pre-Enquiry Changes, November 2004
94 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
Proportion of accomodation by number of bedrooms (2004) Norton-Radstock
5% 19%
26% 1 bed 2 bed 3 bed 4 bed
50%
Source: B&NES Local Plan 1996-2011 - Includes changes up to the Pre-Enquiry Changes, November 2004
Proportion of accomodation by number of bedrooms (2004) Rural
5%
30% 19% 1 bed 2 bed 3 bed 4 bed
46%
Source: B&NES Local Plan 1996-2011 - Includes changes up to the Pre-Enquiry Changes, November 2004
95 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
Proportion of accomodation by number of bedrooms (2004) B&NES
9% 22%
1 bed 24% 2 bed 3 bed 4 bed
45%
Source: B&NES Local Plan 1996-2011 - Includes changes up to the Pre-Enquiry Changes, November 2004
This research supports the overall conclusion that B&NES is under supplied for smaller properties. As reported in 2004 by Knight Frank there are 9,570 social housing units in B&NES of which 2,255 units (24%) have an age restriction of 60 or over. In Bath itself, there are 5,538 units of which 1,069 (19%) have an age restriction: Units in Bath and B&NES which have an age restriction B&NES Bath
Total social housing units 9,570 5,538 Units with age restriction of 60 or over 2,255 1,069
There have been some development schemes to create new social housing units. For example, the 6-year £18m programme using the receipts from the stock transfer in 1999 which provided 600 new units. However, there have also been losses due to residents exercising their ‘Right to Buy’ (see graph below). The rate of loss is at circa 2% per annum. The figures therefore suggest that there has been a net loss in the number of social housing units within B&NES since 1999.
96 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
RTB losses within B&NES - 1999 to date
250 217 208 189 200 179 174
No of 150 units lost 103 100
50
0 1999 / 2000 2000 / 2001 2001 / 2002 2002 / 2003 2003 / 2004 2004 / 2005
Year (to Oct 05)
Condition The overall condition of the housing stock in B&NES, the West of England and GB as a whole has improved greatly in recent years. For B&NES, quality of stock is not a significant issue and, as for the West of England as a whole, unfitness is more of an issue for the private rented sector (91% of the West of England total) than other tenures. In 2001, the proportion of housing stock unfit for human habitation was 4.2% for West of England (of which 25% were in B&NES), 5.1% for SW and 4.2% for England. Total unfit dwellings by unit 1996 2001 2003
B&NES 4,900 4,200 4,200 Bristol 20,400 9,600 8,000 N. Somerset 1,300 2,800 2,800 S. Gloucestershire 2,500 2,100 1,600 West of England 29,000 18,500 16,500 Source: WoE Sub-Regional Housing Study, Main Report, An Independent Report, DTZ, May 2004
7.6 Tenure • The housing market in B&NES is dominated by the owner occupied sector. • The trend since 1991 has shown a decreasing proportion of households owner occupying a home which is mortgaged in B&NES
97 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
• In 2004, the level of private sector renting accounted for around 14% of household accommodation type. • The total proportion of people in social rented housing (including housing association housing) for B&NES in 2001 was 15%. This proportion has decreased mainly as a consequence of the Right to Buy (RTB) provisions . • Overall tenure split for B&NES reflects SW averages.
The housing market in B&NES is dominated by the owner occupied sector. Over the period 1991 to 2011 there has been a slight decrease in this sector of 1% for B&NES and WoE and 2% for SW (against an established trend of increases) which is in line with the trend for WoE and SW as a whole. The trend to date shows a decreasing proportion of households owning or buying homes in B&NES which has had a negative correlation on the level of private sector renting which, in 2004, accounted for around 14% of household accommodation type. The table below shows the split of households by privately rented and owner occupied.
Proportion of the population privately renting and owner occupying, 1991 & 2001 50%
40% 30%
20% 1991 2001 10%
0% % households by tenure by households % B&NES WoE B&NES WoE B&NES WoE
Privately Privately Ow ner Ow ner Ow ner Ow ner rented rented occupied occupied occupied occupied outright outright mortgage mortgage
Source: B&NES Midsomer Norton and Radstock Economic Profile January 2006
As expected, the privately rented sector has increased and is offset by a decrease in owner occupied households who have a mortgage. This indicates the affordability gap discussed later on in this chapter in section 8.11. The increase in outright ownership of property reflects an ageing population who have been able to redeem their mortgage commitments. The proportion of private rented (including those living rent free) does seem to have increased based on Census data for B&NES although this may be skewed slightly by the change in categories and the introductions of the ‘living rent free’ category. The total proportion of people in social rented housing (including housing association housing) for B&NES in 2001 was 15%. This is in line with the West of England and SW average.
98 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
Note that in 1999, all of B&NES’s social housing stock was transferred to Somer Housing Association. The tenure splits are summarised below. a) Tenure split, 2001 Owner Occupied Rented
shared Rented
ownership) Other Social Buying (incl. Buying From Council
Owns Outright Owns / letting agency / letting All Households Living rent free free rent Living Private landlord Private
B&NES 71,200 24,100 27,100 3,300 7,000 8,100 1,800 Bristol 162,100 42,000 60,100 27,500 6,700 21,800 4,200 N. Somerset 80,000 28,400 35,200 5,800 1,700 7,500 1,700 S. Gloucester 99,100 30,900 50,400 7,600 2,200 6,300 1,800 West of England 412,300 125,300 172,700 44,100 17,500 43,300 9,300 SW 2,086,000 710,900 813,300 161,500 120,900 233,200 46,500 Source: WoE Sub-Regional Housing Study, Main Report, An Independent Report, DTZ, May 2004 b) Percentage change in tenure between 1991 and 2001 Owner Occupied Rented
Total
ownership) social rented social
From Council Owns Outright Owns Other social rented social Other Buying (incl. Shared Buying agency (incl. rent free) rent (incl. agency Private landlord/letting Private Total council and other and council Total 91 01 91 01 91 01 91 01 91 01 91 01 91 01
B&NES 30 34 43 38 73 72 16 5 2 10 18 15 9 14 Bristol 24 26 41 37 65 63 22 17 4 4 26 21 9 16 N. Somerset 31 35 50 44 81 79 11 7 2 2 13 9 7 11 S. Gloucester 26 31 58 51 84 82 11 8 1 2 12 10 4 8 WoE 26 30 47 42 73 72 17 11 3 4 20 15 8 13 SW 31 34 44 39 75 73 15 8 2 6 17 14 8 13 Source: Ernst & Young interpretation of data from WoE Sub-Regional Housing Study, Main Report, An Independent Report, DTZ, May 2004
99 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
7.7 Housing locations in the B&NES Council area • The population of B&NES is approximately 172,000. • 64% of the population is concentrated in Bath and the immediate surrounding areas.
The B&NES District has a population of around 172,200 people (2004 mid year population estimate, Nomis). The population is dispersed over 352 square miles. The District, as a proportion of population, can be broken down into the city of Bath, the towns of Keynsham, Radstock and Midsomer Norton and rural parishes as follows – B&NES Council Wards
Bath & Bath Suburbs Abbey Bathwick Combe Down Kingsmead Lambridge Lansdown Lyncombe Newbridge Odd Down Oldfield Southdown Twerton Walcot Westmoreland Weston Widcombe
Keynsham Keynsham East Keynsham North Keynsham South
Norton-Radstock Midsomer Norton North Midsomer Norton Redfield Radstock Westfield
Rural Bathavon North Bathavon South Bathavon West
100 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
Chew Valley North Chew Valley South Clutton Farmborough High Littleton Paulton Peasedown Publow & Whitchurch Saltford Timsbury
Source: www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk
Population split of B&NES by percentage
29% Bath & Bath Suburbs Keynsham 49% Norton-Radstock Rural 13%
9%
Source: www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk
7.8 Planning total housing numbers • Housing completions are currently behind the targets set by both the B&NES Local Plan and the RSS resulting in a revised annual additional number of net dwellings required to 2011 of 455 (up from 413). • During overlapping periods of the B&NES Local Plan and the RSS (ie 2006-2011), there is a discrepancy between annual housing levels required with the RSS setting a higher annual requirement. • As there is limited capacity for Greenfield development because of character and Green Belt constraints, the Local Plan has a target of at least 60% of new dwellings to be buildings set on brownfield land. The RSS recognises this and outlines plans for an urban extension into the Green Belt.
101 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
In recent years completion rates have slowed. Despite this, anticipated delivery rates shown in the housing trajectory imply that the strategic dwelling requirement as per the B&NES Local Plan (“Local Plan”) will be met. However, in the most recent Housing Needs Survey the level of provision is still below that identified. The total number of houses that need to be developed in the SW, West of England and B&NES have been specified in a number of planning documents based on predicted changes in demographics (population growth and household projections) and anticipated economic growth. The key planning documents are: � B&NES Local Plan, 1996 to 2011
� The Draft Regional Spatial Strategy, 2006 to 2026 The B&NES Local Plan suggests that an average of 413 dwellings per year need to be provided in B&NES between 1996 and 2011 of which 233 are expected to be provided in Bath. The housing completions rate between 1996 and 2003 for B&NES have met this rate. However, the rate for Bath is lower than required (173 pa). By way of comparison, South Gloucestershire, North Somerset and Bristol are currently exceeding structure plan targets in terms of completions in the period to 2003. To bring B&NES back on target, the larger sites such as Bath Western Riverside identified in the Local Plan need to be delivered during the period to 2011. The average number of housing units completed between 1995/6 and 2002/3 as per the Residential Land survey was 428.0 To inhibit making use of the Greenbelt area, the Local Plan has set targets such as developing at least 60% of new dwellings on previously developed (brownfield) land. Other targets include provision of at least 30% of affordable homes on all sites of 0.5ha or more dwellings in Bath, Keynsham, Midsomer Norton & Radstock, Paulton and Peasedown St. John and on all sites of 0.5ha or more, or with 12 dwellings in other villages. Actual outputs in relation to some of the targets defined by the B&NES Local Plan and the Housing Strategy are listed below:
102 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
Core output indicator Output
Net additional dwellings from 1996 to 2005 3,743 Projected net dwellings from 2005 to 2011 2,900 Percentage of new and converted dwellings on 66% previously developed land in 2005 Net additional dwellings for the year to 2005 255 Annual net additional number of net dwelling 413 requirement (1996-2011) Annual average number of net dwellings required 455 from 2005 to 2011 to meet overall housing requirements Affordable housing completions during the AMR 56 period 2004-2005
Source: B&NES Annual Monitoring Report 2004-2005 As a result of actual annual completions not always meeting the target of 413 (for example 255 completions in the year to 2005), the annual net dwelling requirement has increased to 455 from 413. This is being tackled and encouraged by B&NES Council through key regeneration opportunities within Bath. The main regeneration scheme is Bath Western Riverside (595 units in the first phase). With revised densities on such projects, new anticipated housing provision is expected to total 6,300 during 1996-2011 instead of 6,200 which was the original target. The emerging Regional Spatial Strategy for West of England requires that 15,400 dwellings are created in B&NES between 2006 and 2026 of which 2,950 are required between 2006 and 2011 and 12,450 are required between 2011 and 2026. Across the periods of the B&NES Local Plan and RSS, this translates to an 86% increase in the average rate of housing completions from 413 to 770 per year (or 357 dwellings for B&NES). For the most comparable periods of the B&NES Local Plan and RSS (2003 to 2011 and 2006 to 2011 respectively), this translates to an increase in the average annual rate of housing completions from 420 to 590 dwellings for B&NES. This is a 40% increase in the shorter term. For Bath, the increase is 54%. In Bath, the figure needs to rise from the current level of 173 to 286 (Local Plan targets) to 440 (RSS targets). This is a 155% increase in total. The average rate of dwelling completions in the longer term beyond the period of the B&NES Local Plan (the period 2011 and 2026) increases to 830 pa which is a 101% increase over the current rate.
103 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
Planned housing completions Period Overall number of net Annual net dwellings per dwellings annum
SW SW Bath Bath WoE WoE
B&NES B&NES End Year End Start Start Year No. of No. Years
B&NES 1996 2011 15 6,200 3,500 413 233 Local Plan 1996 2003 7 2,870 1,210 410 173 (Pre Enquiry) 2003 2011 8 3,360 2,290 420 286 JRSP 1996 2011 15 50,200 6,200 3,347 413 RPG10 1996 2016 20 54,300 3,700 2,715 RSS for West 2006 2026 20 92,500 15,400 4,625 770 of England 2006 2011 5 22,450 2,950 2,200 4,490 590 440 2011 2026 15 70,050 12,450 4,670 830 Source: As stated
These housing figures are still subject to review and modification as part of the adoption process for both the B&NES Local Plan and the RSS. Both are expected to be complete by mid- to late 2007. The table below displays the proportion of annual completions on previously developed sites. It can be seen that in the early years of the plan period, the relevant percentage (50% over period to date) was below that targeted (60%). Future anticipated delivery suggests that the provision of housing will still meet the Local Plan target.
104 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
% of Annual Completions on Previously Developed Sites
2004/05 2003/04 2002/03
2001/02
2000/01 1999/00
1998/99 Financial Year Year Financial 1997/98 1996/97
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Percentage
Source: B&NES Annual Monitoring Report 2004 to 2005
Housing density will also affect how many houses can be provided. This information is provided from the Council’s Residential Land Survey. It is calculated for large sites which cover more than 80% of total sites. As densities have only been recorded since 2003 there is, at present, only 3 years’ of information and therefore no trend can be identified yet.
% of New Dwellings Completed (on larger sites) 100% 90% 80% above 50 dw ellings 70% per hectare 60% betw een 30 and 50 50% dw ellings per hectare 40% less than 30 dw ellings Percentage Percentage 30% per hectare 20% 10% 0% 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 Density
Source: B&NES Annual Monitoring Report 2004 to 2005 For Bath, 2290 dwelling completions are required in the period to 2003 to 2011 as per the B&NES Local Plan. Large brownfield sites have been identified to meet circa 1,400 of this total of which Bath Western Riverside (BWR) and the MOD Foxhill site cover over 70%. The current rate for completions in Bath is falling below the average requirements to meet this target
105 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
but overall completions in B&NES appear to be on track. However, this does not take into account the increased RSS targets.
7.9 Planning levels of affordable housing • During 1996 to 2005, the annual average affordable housing completions per annum were 72. This completion rate is below the annual take up of right to buy properties resulting in a fall in the provision of social housing stock. • The completion rate means that B&NES is significantly out of line with the annual requirement identified in the Housing Strategy between 2002 and 2009 of 664 per annum. The previous sections emphasised that there is an affordability gap between house prices and household income. During the period 1996 to 2005, affordable housing completions have totalled 648 which is equivalent to an annual average of 72. In the year to 2005, there were a mere 46 affordable housing completions. It was identified that between 2002 and 2009 an average of 664 affordable homes per annum giving an aggregate of more than 4,600 dwellings is required within the B&NES District. The recent trend in the provision of affordable housing is therefore substantially lower than the requirement.
Affordable Housing Completions in Bath & North East Somerset 1996 - 2005 250
200
150
100
50
Dwelling completions completions Dwelling 0 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 Financial Year
Source: B&NES Annual Monitoring Report 2004 to 2005
The B&NES Local Plan and the Affordable Housing SPG (December 2003) states the position of B&NES Council on affordable housing. This is summarised as follows: � 30% of new schemes should comprise affordable housing. This is based on B&NES Local Plan figures for 2003 to 2011 and would provide 126 dwellings per year. However the current version of the B&NES Local Plan (Pre-Enquiry
106 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
Modifications November 2004) has removed the 30% figure and instead says ‘a significant proportion’. The Interim Inspectors Report provided in Spring 2006 recognises the importance of the provision of affordable housing. � The threshold for provision of affordable housing is 15 dwellings or more or on a residential site of 0.5ha or more. The current issue here is that many of the sites coming forward for Bath fall under this threshold. � The Council will take account of the suitability of the site for affordable housing and the type of development proposed but will generally seek the affordable housing provision to be provided on-site as part of the development in order to create balanced communities. In very exceptional cases a financial contribution towards provision on an alternative site within B&NES will be considered in lieu of on-site provision. Affordable housing requirements are discussed in more detail in Section 8.12. The following initiatives focus on the provision of an acceptable level of affordable housing.
Approved Development Programme (Investment) Programme The ADP is a system of grants made available to Local Authorities for housing development from the Housing Corporation. Through the ADP, 311 units of affordable housing had been completed during the period 1999/2000 to 2002/2003. By the end of the Programme in 2004/2005 a total of around 600 units had been delivered. In the longer term (ie over the next ten to fifteen years), regeneration of large mixed development sites already identified will produce affordable housing. These include Southgate, Foxhill, Western Riverside Development and Norton Radstock Regeneration. It is anticipated that in excess 600 units in total from these four projects will be provided over the full fifteen years.
Affordable housing through the planning process B&NES work with Planning Services to secure affordable housing through section 106 agreements on suitable sites. Through this process 9 units of affordable housing were completed in 2001/2002 and the projection was 27 in 2002/2003 and 4 in 2003/2004. Projected affordable housing delivery is as follows:
107 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
Site type Estimated number of affordable dwellings 2005 - 20011
Large sites with planning permission at April 164 2005 Allocated sites 424 Large windfall sites 76 Total 664 Source: B&NES Annual Monitoring Report 2004 to 2005
B&NES Local Plan seeks to ensure that 30% of the housing provision is affordable. However, affordable housing provided through rural exceptions schemes have been limited with no such scheme granted planning permission or completed in the year to 2005. In the period 1996 to 2005, only 22 such dwellings have been completed within three villages. Given the past trend of under-provision of affordable housing, close monitoring of this situation is required.
7.10 Development sites for new housing • The main constraint for new housing development in B&NES is the tightly drawn Greenbelt • 1,400 dwellings are expected to be provided on Brownfield sites in Bath in 8 year period to 2011. • There are an extremely limited number of sites in the remaining B&NES area available for new housing. • The current Council policy (and legal obligation) of selling land and empty and surplus properties at market value does not necessarily tie in to the Council’s strategy to provide an adequate level of affordable housing. The land available for new housing development in B&NES is constrained by the physical limitations of the area and a tightly drawn Green Belt. The density and size of units provided within Bath itself is also limited to preserve the World Heritage and historic status of the City. The B&NES Local Plan 1996-2011 suggests that the 6,200 dwelling target for the plan period (circa 2,300 for Bath) will be achieved through development on the following types of site:
108 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
Development by site B&NES Bath
Dwelling completions 1996 to 2003 2,870 1,210 On large sites (with planning) 580 310 On large brownfield sites allocated in policy GDS 1 (General 1,820 1,400 Development Sites) On large brownfield windfall sites 270 160 On small brownfield windfall sites including subdivision of existing 580 400 residential properties (residential conversion) From re-use of empty properties 0 0 From large Greenfield sites allocated in policy GDS 1 (General 120 20 Development Sites) Demolitions -30 Total 6,210 3,500 Total for 2003 to 2011 3,340 2,290 Source: B&NES Local Plan with figures for Bath approximated based on evidence provided in the B&NES Affordable Housing Strategy
Potential sites for the 1,400 dwellings expected to be provided on large brownfield sites have been identified within the B&NES Local Plan. Almost 60% of this target will be provided through the BWR site and a further 14% will be provided by the MOD Foxhill site. However, at May 2006 BWR has been re-estimated as 595 housing units, although the project does not currently have a formal planning application in the system. Furthermore, the overall target does not take into account the additional housing targets within the draft RSS. The Urban Housing Capacity Study (Draft) 2004 sets out the background, methodology, results and site details of urban housing capacity for B&NES. It was originally part of a jointly coordinated study within the Joint Replacement Structure Plan (JRSP) area, comprised of the unitary authority areas of B&NES, Bristol, North Somerset and South Gloucestershire. It differs from the Residential Land Study which relates to land available for residential development in all parts of the District. The document provides a more up to date assessment of land available for residential development in urban areas and includes an assessment of housing ‘potential’ based on an understanding of the processes for urban change and the opportunities it may present. Urban areas have been categorised into Bath, Keynsham and Norton-Radstock. In determining housing capacity it uses the following assumptions on density:
109 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
Bath housing density Dwelling per hectare
City/town centre 100 Urban site (with good public transport access) 60 Suburban sites 30 Source: B&NES The Urban Housing Capacity Study (Draft) 2004
It suggests that, for the period 2004 to 2011, there is potential capacity to provide circa 2,500 dwellings in urban areas.
Assessment of potential for housing in the South West, 1 April 2004 to 31 March 2016
Future supply to be contained in the estimates of urban housing potential Dwellings included in Contribution Contribution Contribution UDP/local plan allocations from other from from identified large unidentified unidentified sites large sites small sites Settlements Green Green Brown Green Brown Brown Green Brown Total (Planned) (Un- planned) Bath 0 0 2390 0 0 400 0 480 3,270 Keynsham 0 0 220 0 0 70 0 40 330 Midsomer 0 50 110 0 0 230 0 110 500 Norton & Radstock Total 22,618 3,988 19,713 17,401 44,456 10,261 1,221 20,406 140,064 settlements Source: South West Regional Assembly: Review of Urban Housing Capacity and Potential Studies in the South West Final Report, Baker Associates July 2005 Keynsham has a limited number of large brownfield sites, primarily the Somerdale factory. At Norton-Radstock the regeneration of the Radstock railway land site is intended to contribute around 200 units through the current proposals led by Norton Radstock Regeneration and Bellway. Development of this site will have a significant impact on the rest of the town centre. In rural settlements there are a few opportunities for sustainable development on brownfield land. Two sites were identified in the B&NES Local Plan: one at Paulton which utilises the
110 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
former printing work buildings (Polestar) and one at the Major Existing Developed Site at Chew Stoke. Contrary to the table above and according to the B&NES Local Plan, one Greenfield site in Bath has been identified in the Bailbrook area. Bailbrook has a capacity of about 20 dwellings. In the Norton-Radstock area, two greenfield housing sites are identified these being at Folly Hill, Chilcompton Road and Kilmersdon Road, Haydon. Finally, in the rural areas, only limited development is anticipated in what is classed as ‘R1 villages’ as they are regarded as having the existing social and physical infrastructure to enable them to successfully absorb limited new development in this way. R1 villages are; • Bathampton, • Batheaston, • Bathford, • Bishop Sutton • Clutton / Temple Cloud, • Farmborough, • High Littleton, • Paulton, • Peasedown St. John, • Saltford, • Timsbury • Whitchurch.
Area Committed supply Future supply to be contained in the estimates of urban housing potential
Completions Dwgs under Total Dwellings Potential Potential Potential Total 01/04/2001 construction included in from other from from small – and with UDP/local identified small sites, 2004 - 31/03/2004 permission plan large sites, sites, 1016 at allocations, 2004 -2016 2004 - 01/04/2004 2004 -2016 2016
Green Brown Green Brown Brown Green Brown
B&NES 922 751 1673 0 0 70 2800 770 0 830 4,470
Source: South West Regional Assembly: Review of Urban Housing Capacity and Potential Studies in the South West Final Report, Baker Associates July 2005
111 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
Area Dwellings included Contribution Contribution Contribution Total in UDP/local plan from other from from allocations identified unidentified unidentified large sites large sites small sites
Green Green Brown Green Brown Brown Green Brown (Planned) (Unplanned
Bath 0 0 2390 0 0 400 0 480 3270
Source: South West Regional Assembly: Review of Urban Housing Capacity and Potential Studies in the South West Final Report, Baker Associates July 2005
During the completion of the Housing Strategy 2002-2011, B&NES reviewed resources which could potentially be transferred into housing. They are detailed as follows:
Land The current Council policy is to sell any surplus assets at market value. The downside to this is that the Registered Social Landlords partners in the Joint Commissioning Partnership have to compete with commercial developers in any negotiations. In a strong market the not-for-profit sector has difficulty competing and this results in undersupply.
Empty and surplus properties As with land, the supply of empty and surplus properties would usually have to be negotiated at market levels. Development of such properties can sometimes be financially and commercially viable. However, properties from the Property Services portfolio have been provided at significantly lower than market rent for use as temporary accommodation for homeless households. It is anticipated that further properties from the portfolio will be used in this way. B&NES identified 200 long term empty properties in the District in 2003. B&NES is proactively seeking to reduce the number of empty properties and it is estimated that about 90 (11 per year) can be brought back into use by 2011.
Funding from housing transfer B&NES received a capital receipt of £18m in relation to the transfer of housing stock to Somer Community Housing Trust. As mentioned in section 8.6, this is being used to provide 600 units of new affordable housing and will be targeted to meet the needs of local communities.
112 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
B&NES are undertaking Joint Commissioning, on behalf of the Housing Corporation, which aims to take a strategic approach to social housing development based on a 6 year development programme.
7.11 Affordability definition and issue • The house price to income ratio has been increasing (2004: 5.35 vs 2002: 4.25) • A single earner household in B&NES would require an income of £30,600 to be able to purchase a lower quartile dwelling costing £140,000. • In 2004, only 32% of new households in B&NES could afford to buy a property in the District. Housing affordability is a key issue for B&NES. In the B&NES Council Local Plan 1996-2001 affordable housing is defined as: “The range of both subsidised and market housing that will be available for those households whose income generally denies them the opportunity to purchase or rent houses on the open market as a result of the local relationship between income and market price”. Affordable housing therefore covers both: • Social rented housing – where housing is allocated on the basis of need rather than ability to pay and rents are set below market levels. • Intermediate housing – for those who are ineligible for social rented housing but cannot afford market housing. A level of public subsidy or cross-subsidy from commercial development is generally required. This is a relatively new area and different products are available including low cost home ownership (LCHO) and low cost rent schemes such as: − Shared ownership schemes (often controlled by RSL’s) enable occupiers to part-buy and part-rent the property until such time as they can afford to buy it outright when they staircase to full ownership. − Shared equity schemes where the RSL (or similar) retains a stake in the property. − Shared purchase using equity loans.
The issue is therefore a result of the gap between income and market house prices. Housing affordability is a key issue across England as a whole and in particular the SE and SW. Recent reports by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation show that there has been a marked increase in house price to income ratios since circa 1998. According to these calculations, in the SW ratios have increased by 13% from 4.20 in 2002 to 4.74 in 2004. In this period the ratio has increased in B&NES from 4.25 to 5.35 ranking the District 27th out of 44 local authority areas in the SW for 2004. The rate of growth in B&NES is particularly high compared to other SW Authorities. Analysis undertaken for WoE suggests that the issue is more acute in Bath City than B&NES. In the SW ratios have increased by 13% from 4.20 in 2002 to 4.74 in 2004. Highest and lowest in the SW were Bournemouth (6.15) and Gloucester (3.40) respectively.
113 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
House price to income ratio 2002 2004 % Increase
B&NES 4.25 5.35 25.9 Bristol 4.07 4.57 12.3 N. Somerset 3.31 3.69 11.5 S. Gloucestershire 3.72 4.19 12.6 WoE Average 3.84 4.45 15.9 SW 4.2 4.74 12.9 SE 3.96 4.55 14.9 England 3.37 4.2 24.6 Other Examples Reading UA 4.28 4.14 -3.3 Torbay UA 5.2 5.53 6.3 Bournemouth UA 5.08 6.15 21.1 Gloucester 4.90 3.40 -30.6 Source: Joseph Rowntree Foundation, May 2003; Joseph Rowntree Foundation, Oct 2005
This affordability data is based on: � Household earnings, not individual earnings � House prices for 2 and 3 bedroom dwellings � Income required for purchase at 3.75 x a single income and 3.25 a multiple income According to the Rowntree report, in 2004 a single earner household in B&NES would need an annual income of £30,600 to be able to afford to purchase a lower quartile price dwelling (£140,000). This reduces to £26,500 for lower decile prices.
114 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
Local house price and incomes required to purchase a house
dwelling)
Average Annual Average
Household Earning Household Average House Price Average purchase lowest lowest decile purchase purchase lower quartile quartile lower purchase 2004 House Price (2/3 bed (2/3 Price 2004 House Annual Income required to required Income Annual to required Income Annual Lower Lowest Single Multiple Single Multiple Quartile Decile Earner Earner Earner Earner £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £
B&NES 191,327 35,788 140,000 120,998 26,458 30,529 30,613 35,323 Bristol 155,912 34,126 120,000 101,550 22,206 25,622 26,240 30,277 N. Somerset 152,830 41,384 122,500 105,850 23,146 26,707 26,787 30,908 S. Glouc. 150,754 35,995 126,000 110,125 24,081 27,785 27,552 31,791 South West 160,221 33,826 South East 188,543 41,426 England 159,986 38,106 Other Examples Reading 179,080 43,287 148,000 136,250 29,793 34,377 32,363 37,342 Torbay 154,340 27,909 119,975 102,050 22,315 25,748 26,235 30,271 Bournemouth 189,511 30,837 158,688 140,500 30,723 35,449 34,700 40,038 Gloucester 127,932 37,614 110,000 94,750 20,719 23,906 24,053 27,754 Source: Ernst & Young Analysis / Joseph Rowntree Foundation, May 2003; Joseph Rowntree Foundation, Oct 2005 There are other models available for assessing affordability and developing figures for affordable housing need. In May 2005 a new ‘Housing Need and Affordability Model’ was developed by Professor Bramley for use by the West of England local authorities to assess affordability and affordable housing requirement. The model’s aim was to be technically more sophisticated and underpinned by recent national research and data. The exercise was a form of ‘local housing needs study’ that is undertaken by local authorities to support Local Plan policies on affordable housing and local housing strategies and investment programmes. It supersedes the information provided in the Housing Needs Survey of 2000 which was used to underpin the data in the B&NES Local Plan. These figures are calculated from a number of inputs including:
• the ability of younger newly forming households to afford to access owner occupation by reference to:
115 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
− income distributions for all under-35’s − a lending multiplier of 3.5 x a single person’s income and (3.5 x 0.85) for two earners. It assumes a 100% mortgage is assumed to indicate the maximum limit of affordability, and also to reflect the opportunity cost of savings where these are used for a deposit − threshold house prices (lower quartile price) with adjustments for the availability of family wealth (for example, parental contributions, informal loans or inheritance)
• net migrants to the area
• housing waiting list backlogs
• moves of tenure from owner occupied to social rented and
• number of re-lets for social housing For B&NES, the components of affordable housing in 2006 have been calculated as follows and show that the requirement is driven by the new households that have a need for affordable housing as well as the backlog from the housing register: New Net migrants o/o to social Backlog households rented unable to afford Bath City 438 24 58 131 Keynsham 112 0 16 21 Midsomer Norton-Radstock 192 15 31 41 Rural 125 1 21 26 BNES Total 867 41 124 219 Source: West of England Housing Need and Affordability Model, Final Report, 31 May 2005, Prof Glen Bramley, Heriott-Watt Univ, Edinburgh
Figures in this report suggest that only 32% of new households in B&NES could afford to buy in 2004. Based on these calculations, affordability deteriorated significantly between 2002 and 2004 with the trend in B&NES being the same as that for the West of England sub-region. Using this model, affordability is projected to improve and is predicted to 2009. Bath City centre affordability is generally 4% lower than B&NES (ie, less households can afford to buy). This reflects the particularly high house prices in Bath City without a proportionately higher income.
116 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
Percentage of new households able to afford a house Affordability % 2002 2004 2006 2009 Average
Bath City 34.6 27.1 30.1 34 31.4 B&NES 38.7 31.6 35.1 39.5 36.2 West of England 41.9 34.2 37.9 42.4 39.1 Source: West of England Housing Need and Affordability Model, Final Report, 31 May 2005, Prof Glen Bramley, Heriott-Watt Univ, Edinburgh
7.12 Affordable housing need • Affordable housing need per annum as per the Bramley study is 771. This figure exceeds both the Local Plan and the RSS total annual housing requirements which were 420 and 590 per annum respectively. • Affordable housing requirements have been proven difficult to estimate due to factors such as “concealed households”. As concluded in the previous section, the affordability issue is a result of the gap between income and market house prices. Average household income in the B&NES district is slightly below that of Great Britain, the average house price is substantially higher than that of both the South West Region and England & Wales. The Bramley model (West of England Housing Need and Affordability Model) combines affordability percentage with demographic and supply information to obtain an estimate of the net need for additional affordable housing. Figures calculated for 2006 (771pa) are in fact higher than the total amount of housing required through the B&NES Local Plan (420pa) and RSS (590pa) suggesting that even if RSS housing completion targets were met, it would not fully address the affordable housing need in B&NES.
Affordable housing need per annum Affordable housing need pa on 2006 Bath City Centre B&NES
Affordable housing need identified in Bramley study 314 771 B&NES Local Plan total housing requirement (average) 286 420 RSS total housing requirement (average) 440 590 Source: Ernst & Young review of B&NES data
117 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
Net affordable housing need per annum (units) 2002 2004 2006 2009 Average
Bath City 238 314 278 241 268 B&NES 639 771 685 562 664 West of England 3,537 4,422 3,855 3,038 3,713 Source: West of England Housing Need and Affordability Model, Final Report, 31 May 2005, Prof Glen Bramley, Heriott-Watt Univ, Edinburgh
The need for affordable housing presented in the B&NES Local Plan is based on the Housing Survey 2000. This indicated that there was an affordable housing need at 2006 of 2,667 dwellings (1,732 if the 935 households planning to leave due to lack of housing are not taken into account4). However according to the B&NES Local Plan there was an additional 2,925 concealed household (eg young people wishing to leave home).
7.13 Affordable housing need – dwelling and tenure types • The B&NES Homeseekers register has shown an increasing trend since 2002. • The majority of demand in the District is for small units comprising 1 or 2 bedrooms. As at 5 December 2005, the number of people on the B&NES Homeseekers Register was 5,157. Since January 2004 this has increased by almost 30% (from 4,108) in this 21 month period. Homeseekers are categorised into band A, B or C depending on whether they have an urgent need to move, high need to move or a low to medium need to move. “Needs points” determine the Band and where a homeseeker is placed on the Register. For example, lacking a bedroom attracts 2 points, statutorily overcrowded attracts 1 point and an urgent medical need to move attracts 1 point. 1 point is allocated to a homeseeker for every full month they remain on the Register. Data available on the trend over a 6 year period does suggest a rising trend but some of this data may not be completely comparable particularly due to the change in system between 2001 and 2002:
4 B&NES Affordable Housing Strategy
118 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
Number of households on B&NES Homeseeker's Register over time
4500 4271
4000 3799 3521 3500 3324
3000 2640 2428 2500 2375
2000
1500 No No of households
1000
500
0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year
Source: B&NES Homeseeker’s Register
Of this 2005 total 3,743 (72%) had a social housing need (ie, attracting more than ten needs points). Over half of applicants were currently in social rented or private rented accommodation (28 and 21% respectively) and 16% were without secure housing (includes those that class themselves as homeless, living in a hostel or living with friends:
119 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
Current tenure of people on B&NES Homeseeker's Register
1600 1420 1400
1200 1096 1055 1000
800 Number 570 600 478
400 277 261 200
0
il r c d el s e n e t d u os n th h ie O Co / te rent c a s or With family s so ner/occupier With fr Priv w As O g sin Homele u o H Current tenure
Source: B&NES Homeseeker’s Register
In terms of location, 30 % (1,600) wanted to live in Bath Area 1(includes Lansdown & Bathwick, Snowhill, Walcot, Weston and Newbridge areas). In terms of unit size required, over 80% of applicants for both B&NES and Bath Area 1 required small units (1- or 2- bedroom properties):
120 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
Unit size requirement for people on B&NES Homeseeker's Register
90.0% B&NES 80.0%
74.6% 74.6% Bath (area 1)
70.0% 60.9% 60.9% 60.0%
50.0%
40.0% No No of people 30.0% 22.4% 22.4% 20.0% 13.8% 13.8%
10.0% 7.8% 4.9% 4.9% 4.8% 4.8% 4.4% 2.9% 1.5% 1.3% 0.7% 0.0% 1 2 3 4 5+ Not given No of bedrooms required
7.14 Other information • As the ageing population increases, the provision and condition of accommodation for this group will need to be assessed for its adequacy. • There has been an increasing requirement for temporary accommodation. • The student market has a strong part to play in the private rental market in Bath and the immediate surrounding areas.
Elderly housing Overall, the elderly population, particularly those over 80 years old is expected to increase. Accommodation for this group includes residential care, nursing and sheltered accommodation and general accommodation such as flats and bungalows. Provision of sheltered accommodation in B&NES is relatively high. There are 2,246 sheltered housing units with an additional 52 units of extra care sheltered housing (2,298 units overall). This accommodation is mainly provided by Somer CHT (B&NES Affordable Housing Strategy). As discussed in section 8.6, out of the 9,570 social housing units in existence in 2004 in B&NES, 5,538 units were in Bath. Of these, 24% had an age restriction of 60 or over (Knight Frank study for Grosvenor). Outside of Bath 19% of social housing has an age restriction of 60 or over.
121 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
Some of the sheltered housing no longer meets the needs and aspirations of older people and needs reviewing on a scheme by scheme basis. More extra-care housing is also needed. In 2002, B&NES Council decided to provide three additional Elderly Persons Homes with a total of 105 beds and 75 extra care units, again led by Somer CHT. 60 of these extra care flats are to be provided in Bath (B&NES Affordable Housing Strategy).
Homelessness A range of options for homeless people showed a small decrease during the review for the Housing Strategy 2002-2011. In May 2003, total numbers of statutory homeless households was 176 with 69 units of temporary accommodation provided by Bath Self Help Housing Association (a subsidiary of Somer CHT). Due to the shortage, B&NES Council does place people in B&B accommodation. The need for temporary accommodation has increased steadily and is set to increase further.
Student Accommodation According to the B&NES Affordable Housing Strategy, it is perceived that the need for student accommodation in the private rented sector has a direct impact on overall costs and availability within this sector. It seems that supply to students is good since they are perceived to be reliable payers (backed by parental guarantees). Student rental income is typically £800-£1,000 per house per month. The main areas providing private rented accommodation for students in the Bath area are Oldfield Park and Claverton Down and Twerton. The University of Bath has 7,930 students and employs 1,800 staff. It generally houses all first years on campus. It has a longer term strategy to house 50% of its students in this way (B&NES Affordable Housing Strategy). It has developed a Masterplan to provide an additional 950 student bedrooms on campus (B&NES Local Plan), although further expansion suggests that more will be needed. This will have an impact on the Greenbelt within Bath. Bath Spa University College has 4500 students and according to the B&NES Affordable Housing Strategy is expecting to expand by 6/7,000 by 2010 - it employs 500 staff. It generally provides student accommodation first year students (circa 1,200 per year with 1,000 needing accommodation). It has sites at: Newton Park (containing 400 student accommodation units); Somerset Place (150) and Lower Bristol Road (316 as from Sept 2004). This new site contributes to their need for 350-400 managed student accommodation units. They will be encouraged to produce a masterplan setting out future expansion proposals including assessment of current Newton Park campus capacity.
122 Solutions in Regional Development Section 7
Research - Housing
7.15 Conclusion The B&NES Authority has a strong residential property market and recent house price inflation in the City has reached levels more similar to South East England. In recent years housing completions have been below the level set out in the B&NES Local Plan. The private rented market is dominated by student demand. These factors combine to result in an under supply of affordable housing. Both the Area Plan, and especially the Regional Spatial Strategy recognise a need to increase the construction of housing units within the B&NES area. B&NES would seek to combine this housing construction programme with a requirement for developers to complete schemes with an element of affordable housing. At present this ratio is set at 30% although even this level of provision against the housing completion targets would not satisfy the projected demand for affordable housing.
123 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
8.1 Key Findings � Transportation within B&NES must mainly be undertaken by road, since there are only 4 railway stations within the UA. � Key transportation issues are related to traffic and parking in Bath and other main towns at peak hours. � A bid has been submitted to the Department for Transport for approval which seeks to improve some of the identified bottlenecks within the UA. � The cost to the consumer of public transport is similar to other cities in the South West although there is a perception that it is more expensive. � B&NES Somerset is connected to the major rail route network via Bath Spa Station.
� Some of the rural areas are relatively isolated from a public transport perspective.
8.2 Introduction There have been two recent transportation planning documents for B&NES. The first one being the Local Transportation Plan for 2001 to 2005 published in July 2000 (Hereafter LTP 2000) and relating only to B&NES. The second planning document being the Final Joint Local Transport Plan for 2006 to 2011 published in July 2005 (Hereafter FJLTP 2005). This is a joint transportation plan for the former Avon County Councils namely Bristol City Council, South Gloucestershire County Council, North Somerset County Council and Bath and North East Somerset County Council. The FJLTP identified a few cross-border priorities between the Councils but the main problems were still the same local needs: bus and rail infrastructure; Park and Ride schemes; managing traffic congestion; walking; cycling; local safety schemes; safer routes and local area schemes/smarter choices etc. In considering future needs it is useful to consider the current situation. B&NES is connected to the rest of South West and to national road networks by the A4, A36, A37, A46, A367 and M4 and by the Great Western Main Railway Line by rail and by Kennet and Avon Canals in terms of waterways. The broad situation is illustrated below:
124 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
M5 M5 M4 M4
A46 A46 Keynsham Keynsham A4 Bath A4 Bath A37 A37
A367 A367 A36 A36 Norton RadstockNorton Radstock
Travel patterns in the B&NES district fall into four distinct categories according to LTP 2000 and they are: Travelling in the • City of Bath; • Towns of Keynsham and Norton-Radstock; • The inter-urban corridors; and • The rural areas. According to the LTP 2000, B&NES Council has spent £9.4 million on transportation projects (government allocation for capital investment in transport being £8 million and the Council’s own capital resources of £1.4 million) from 1996 to 1999. The LTP2000 identifies the priority areas to be improved as traffic management, public transport, parking management, behavioural change, improving environment and maintenance. The transport budget for B&NES as indicated by the LTP 2000 for the period of 2001-2006 was £37 million. However according to the LTP 2001-2006 Annual Progress Report, July 2005 the Council had spent £15.2 million on transport improvements (£5.3 million capital allocated settlement, £2.2 own capital, other contributions and bids from central government) and £7.7million on revenue projects, giving a total of £22.9 million. As a result there has been a shortfall in transport expenditure against the original budget of £14.1m The shortfall in expenditure was not the result of a lack of need. B&NES inherited a pre-motor car era road system which was not purpose built for contemporary transportation needs. For example in Norton-Radstock the highway system was built during the development of the
125 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
Somerset Coalfield. Most of the roads were built using traditional material and this coupled with the adverse geographic conditions of steep hillsides makes the maintenance expensive. In addition 53% of B&NES’ road network lies within built up areas making maintenance difficult and expensive (LTP, 2005). For the rural areas of B&NES transportation links are vital to get access to the various facilities in the main towns (Bath, Keynsham, and Midsomer Norton & Radstock). The status of Bath as a World Heritage City, the Mendip Hills (to the south of B&NES) and Cotswolds allocated as Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONB) also makes maintenance and building of new highway projects costly and difficult. The main problems and opportunities identified in the FJLTP 2005 are tackling congestion (causes journey time unreliability), improving accessibility (removal of gaps in transport network), improving road safety (killed and seriously injured causality figures are above target), improving air quality (100,000 people living in Air Quality Management Areas), regional and sub regional issues such as infrastructure deficit, development growth (high levels and major new areas), asset management (maintaining transport infrastructure).
Congestion According to the LTP 2000, traffic in urban areas within B&NES grew by 13% from 1996-2002 (This gives per annum growth of about 2.1%). During the period of the LTP 2000 Bath has had traffic growth of 1.7% per annum, Keynsham 1.5% per annum and Norton-Radstock 1% per annum (Source: LTP 2001-2006, Appendix 2). The JFLTP 2005 estimates the total cost of time lost due to congestion for the 4 Councils is to be £350 million per year; however the exact amount for B&NES is not separately identified. While congestion continues to worsen, the 2001 Census highlights that in the JLTP area 21% of journeys to work are less than 2km (potential walking distance) but 45% are made by car; and 22% of journeys to work are between 2km and 5km (potential cycling distance) with 68% by car. This problem is particularly acute in the North Fringe of Bristol. (FJLTP, 2005). In B&NES 78% of the households have 1 or more car/van; and 33% of the households have 2 or more cars/vans. This level of vehicle ownership is higher than the average for England and Wales and this is shown below.
Number of Cars per Household No. of cars/vans per B&NES Bristol England and Wales household
0 22% 28.8% 26.8% 1 44.9% 46.6% 43.8% 2+ 33% 24.6% 29.4% Source: FJLTP 2005, 2001 Census
126 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
Congestion and higher per household vehicle ownership is partly due to a lack of attractive public transport; the growing usage of cars relative to other form of travel; land use and development changes; and road and rail infrastructure constraints (FJLTP, 2005). To reduce congestion the FJLTP 2005 identifies providing alternatives to the car to make it more attractive to use other modes of travel, influencing travel behaviour to encourage people to reduce car use and managing demand to optimise the use of the road network. Based on the needs above prioritising increased use of buses, rail, walking and cycling, P&R and school & work place plans, the FJLTP 2005 identifies an action plan which suggested 3 options as given below. i. Option A £12 million per year – Do minimum ii. Option B £25-35 million per year – 2 showcase bus routes (showcase bus routes can cost in the range of £3-5 million with levels of investment from operators in the region of £2-3m) Show case bus routes eg, 76/77 Henbury to Hartcliffe iii. Option C £60-100 million per year – introduce an innovative scheme During the public consultation carried out as a part of the FJLTP, options C (62%) and B (54%) had more public support compared to the Option A.
Grant from Transport innovation fund The four Local Authorities are planning to bid for TIF (Transport Innovation Fund – which has a £290m fund in 2008/09 and rises to over £2.5bn in 2014/15) which is covered by Option 3. The Councils were invited to bid for “Pump Priming” funds covering 05/06, 06/07 and 07/08 to assist with the development of TIF proposals. In response to this the Councils submitted a bid for development funding and in November 2005 and were awarded £1.5m to assist with investigation works as per the FJLTP, 2005. At the moment a feasibility study is been procured and cost benefit modelling work is being carried out by the Council’s consultants. This is to investigate the economic benefit of such a scheme. This includes a detailed public consultation before deciding on a congestion charging/similar mechanism to counter congestion in the 4 Councils. According to the B&NES Travel to Work Study (2005), in 1999 the City of Bath employed 52,000 people, Norton-Radstock 12,000 and Keynsham 7,500 each. The Local Plan, B&NES, 2003 document gives the following travel to work data for B&NES.
127 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
Where local residents work (1991 census data) Work In the Bath Bristol Rest of S. other Live same district Gloucester/ city Mendip Bath 79% 6% 4% 11% Keynsham 31% 8% 30% 7% 9% 15% Norton- 47% 17% 6% 11% 13% 6% Radstock Source: Local Plan B&NES, 2003
Where local workers live (1991 census data) Work In the Bath Bristol Rest of S. Wilts other Live same district Gloucester hire city /Mendip Bath 60% 3% 14% 5% 11% 8% Keynsham 37% 18% 17% 20% 7% Norton- 54% 3% 18% 19% 6% Radstock Source: Local Plan B&NES, 2003
The analysis above suggests that Bath can offer the opportunity for people to combine living and working within the City. Keynsham is a town with a more residential character (with people commuting to Bristol for work) and Midsomer Norton & Radstock is a residential centre for the people working in Bath; Mendip; and rest of the B&NES district. Midsomer Norton & Radstock, B&NES (remainder), Bradford on Avon, Corsham, Keynsham and Saltford all have relatively strong links to Bath.
128 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
Bath travel to work: twenty highest sub-area inflows Source: 2001 Census (SWS203) ONS Crow n Copyright. All persons aged 16 to 74 in employment
4,500
4,000
3,500 4,243
3,000
2,500
2,000 2,708
Persons 1,500
1,000 1,499 1,448 1,285 1,234
500 1,185 1,118 1,019 790 744 679 420 415 405 386 321 321 319 223 0
r) l n ) e m m m r e ry let d ge ge to a u tock in d is h pto ing b s ri sha n m inde s/East d Mal d ain Fr b r Br e lksha o a th East d o a m - Frome p e n R st Bradford th ip ilc S to ip - h g n d nd Saltford ou Sou in n a Bristol SNorth North Fr d Ea -C ast Mi p orto n Me re - Trow e p - Ch E ip - Shep N a ltshire ltshire - Co ir shire - Mdi th/ d i h ilt n Ch ip Wi e B&NES (Re ilts W Nor e / st W th M stershire (Rem t swoo Wiltshie W e g st Keynsham h c Ya Mend in e W Nor rt West West Wiltshireu - Westbury K W lo No G th Sou Sub-area
129 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
Percentage of people travelling to work into Bath by Car Source: 2001 Census (SWS203) ONS Crown Copyright. Note: Sub-areas selected are the twenty largest total inflows into Bath 100.0
95.0 94.6
90.0 93.4 89.8 89.6 85.0 89.0 88.1 86.8 85.3 84.8 80.0 84.3 % 81.0 80.8 79.3 75.0 79.1 77.7 76.6
70.0 73.8 73.3 73.2 73.2
65.0 65.4 60.0
South East Bristol North North Fringe Corsham South Bristol
Westbury Melksham
Fringe Trowbridge
Chippenham Mendip - Frome West WiltshireWest WiltshireWest - WiltshireWest - North Wiltshire - North Wiltshire -
Norton Radstock (Remainder)
Kingswood and East B&NES(Remainder) North/EastMids/East Mendip - Chilcompton South Gloucestershire Keynshamand Saltford Mendip - Shepton Mallet ChippingYate / Sodbury West WiltshireWest - Bradford Sub-area
The difference in proportion of car use partly reflects the availability of both bus and rail public transport routes into Bath. For the Councils which belonged to the former Avon County the means of getting to work is analysed in FJLTP, 2005 document as detailed below.
130 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
Travel to Work Mode of transport Four Councils5 Metropolitan County English County Average Average Car 63% - - Local bus up to 10km 10% 13% - Local train 6% 2% 4.2% Walk up to 2km 11% 9.8% 10% Cycle up to 8km 11% 1.6% 2.8% Source: FJLTP, 2005
In B&NES there has been an increase in bus usage recently in contrast to the national situation outside London where a gradual decrease is shown. For example around 9% of all the journeys to work (Census 2001) are by bus rising to over 29% for people working in Bristol city centre and 20% for Bath. Bath appears to have a lower proportion of people who work in the area travelling long distances to work compared to other urban areas with similar levels of employment. For example there are a greater proportion of people commuting into Cheltenham/Charlton Kings who travel over 20km to work than do so in Bath. In the Bath urban area only 9.3% of the people who work in Bath travel over 20km, by way of comparison the figure for the Greater Bristol Urban Area is 12.6% and Weston-super-Mare is 8.9%. National Cycle Network Route 24 Radstock/Frome goes thorough B&NES including other cross cycle network links
Funding for Transport Projects Transportation related expenses of the Council are funded either by the Central Government (Department for Transportation - DfT) funds (such as capital maintenance fund, integrated transport fund and exceptional maintenance fund etc) or by Council’s own funding (capital funding and revenue funding). Any bid less than £5 million is included in the FJLTP (or previously LTP) and other bids over and above £5 million have to be submitted separately for the Central Government’s approval. At the current time the Councils have submitted a £68 million bid titled “Greater Bristol Bus Network” (November 2005) and are expecting to receive notification from the DfT in the near future. B&NES Council is planning to submit another major bid “Bath Public Transport Package” which is for a sum of £65 million by May 2006 (the government deadline on this is end July 2006). Further details on this bid are set out later in this chapter. The transport section is set out as follows: � Road Transport
5 Bristol City Council, Bath and North East Somerset Council, North Somerset Council and South Gloucestershire Council.
131 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
� Public Transport (bus links) � Rail Transport � Air Transport
� Transport in Rural Areas
8.3 Road Transport Private transportation and general road transportation issues are discussed in this Section. The main highlights are � Transportation within B&NES is mainly by road, since there are only 4 railway stations within the Authority. � Key transport links are Motorways M4 and M5 (although the motorways themselves and the access to them fall outside B&NES); Highways A4, A36, A46, A37, A362 and A367. � Main transportation issues are related to traffic and parking in Bath and other main towns. � A current bid is awaiting approval from the Department for Transport for funding to improve some of the identified bottlenecks within the Authority.
Links and journey times The table below sets out the key road transport times for B&NES
Transportation times City links Travel time by car (min) Peak travel time by car (estimated min)
Bristol to Bath Under 30/40 Around 60 Keynsham to Bath Under30 Around 40 Saltford to Bath Under 30 Around 40 Midsomer Norton & Radstock Under 30 Around 40 to Bath Source: Summary of (2001 Census) Bath Travel to Work 121005
The major motorways which have links to B&NES are M4 through its Junction 18 (around 20 minute drive to Bath) and M5 through the M4/M5 interchange (around 30 minute drive to Bath). The urban areas in B&NES are linked by ‘A’ roads and the major routes are A4 (linking B&NES with Bristol and Chippenham), A36 (linking B&NES from Trowbridge and Warminster), A46 (Linking B&NES with Cirencester and Stroud), A37 (linking Shepton
132 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
Mallet, Wells and Yeovil) and A367 (Linking Shepton Mallet) and A362 (linking Farrington Gurney and Frome). It is a drive of approximately 50 minutes Bath to Bristol International Airport (BIA) and with a reduced time of circa 40 minutes to travel to the airport from Keynsham and Saltford. From Midsomer Norton & Radstock the journey will also take approximately 50 minutes. It is roughly a 2 hour drive by the M4 motorway to London Heathrow Airport (LHR) from Bath, Keynsham and Saltford but it will take a little longer from Norton-Radstock. The easiest way to get in to LHR by public transport is by train and rail-air link via Reading. This will take about 2 hours and costs £34 for a saver return (£18.50 RAL+ £15.50 FGW).
Usage and capacity The following main road bottlenecks are identified within B&NES. 1. Claverton Street/Rossiter Road, Widcombe (LTP 2000) bottle neck. The suggested solution has been to make Rossiter Road 2 way 2. The A4 around Brislington Retail Park and Saltford 3. General congestion caused by the convergence of the A4, A36 and A46 in Bath. The suggested solution has been to De-trunk6 the A4, A36 and A46 (A36/A46 links M4 with M27) – This was included in the East of Bath Scheme (Batheaston and Beckington) which was later abandoned. 4. At Radstock the A367 and A362 both carrying substantial level of traffic converge in the town centre (LTP 2000)
Parking Parking in the City of Bath is limited and during the peak tourist season and at Christmas the parking reaches full capacity. The problem has been partially addressed through the provision of additional parking in park and ride schemes.
6 De trunking means delisting from the list of trunk roads. Effectively this means the responsibility of repair and maintenance and setting speed limits etc will be passed on to the Local Authority from the Highways Agency. The advantage in the case of the A36/A46 link would be to give B&NES the ability to restrict users for example limiting HGV usage of the roads.
133 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
Existing P&R facilities in Bath University Newbridge Lansdown Odd Down (A4 West) (A46 North) (A367 East Days of operations Saturday Mon-Sat Mon-Sat Mon-Sat Year of opening 1981 1986 1988 1996 Existing Capacity 600 450 600 1000 Days of operations Saturday Mon-Sat Mon-Sat Mon-Sat
Source: Local Plan, B&NES, 2003
LansdowneLansdowne ParkPark & Ride & Ride
Proposed Proposed Lambridge Newbridge Park & RidePark & Ride ParkPark & Ride & Ride ProposedProposed Newbridge ParkPark & Ride & Ride University University Park & RidePark & Ride
Odd Down Odd Down Park & RidePark & Ride Extension Extension Proposed
The analysis shows that there is a current Park & Ride capacity for 2050 cars rising to 2650 on Saturdays. There are proposals for an extension to the Odd Down site, the provision of an all week site to serve the A36 and a much needed additional site in the Newbridge area. The extended Newbridge scheme will serve the BWR regeneration area as well as Bath City Centre. B&NES has been attempting for some time to develop a Park & Ride scheme at Lambridge close to the A46 entry to Bath. Whilst the scheme itself gained planning permission, the essential relocation of the Bath Rugby Club training facilities to another site failed to gain planning consent and therefore the scheme was unable to proceed. A new planning approach is currently being considered. P&R tickets are £1.70 return (children under 16 years are free when accompanied).
134 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
Parking in Bath Long Stay Short Stay Name Capacity Name Capacity Charlotte Street 1200 Cattle Market/Walcot 40 Street Avon Street 700 Kingsmead 90 Ham Gardens 650 Broad Street 50 Manvers Street 170 Saw Close 20 Sports/Leisure Centre 135 Total 2,855 200 Source: www.bathnes.co.uk
At present there are a further estimated 3,400 off street spaces in Bath City Centre (Local Plan, 2003 B&NES). As a result there is significantly higher provision of parking in Bath than is provided through Park & Ride. Long Stay parking can cost as much as £11.00 over 9 hours (Avon Street) to £6.00 over 10 hours (Charlotte Street). Short Stay parking is £1.10 per hour subject to maximum of 4 hour stay (in Kingsmead Square, Saw Close, Broad Street and Cattle Market) (Date April 2006). There are plans for multi occupancy bay/ parking facilities in Bath city coupled with car sharing schemes such as the Bath City Car Club (FJLTP 2005)
Parking in Keynsham Long Stay Short Stay Name Capacity Name Capacity Charlton Road 90 Ashton Way 240 Labbots 70 Civic Centre 175 Fox and Hounds 30 Bath Hill East 150 Station Road 40 St. Johns Court 140 Total 520 415 Source: www.bathnes.co.uk
There is currently no identified shortage of car parking capacity within Keynsham and the cost of parking is inexpensive. In April 2006 the cost of parking in Keynsham short stay was 30 pence (less than 2 hours); long stay 2-4 hours was 60 pence; long stay 4-8 hours was £1.10; and over 8 hours is £1.40.
135 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
Parking in Norton-Radstock Parking in Midsomer Norton and Radstock is free and the towns have the following parking facilities.
Midsomer Norton Radstock Name Capacity Name Capacity Pows Orchard/The 80 Waterloo Road 40 Hollies Leisure Centre 70 The Street 60 South Road 150 Victoria Hall 40 Excelsior Terrace 110 Total 410 140 Source: www.bathnes.co.uk
There is no identified shortage of car parking capacity in Midsomer Norton or Radstock.
Specific Issues Keynsham, with a population of 16,000 in 1999 (LTP 2000), has a high level of car ownership and suffers from congestion in the town centre during peak time, but enjoys a high level of quality public transport compared to other towns due to its accessibility to both bus and rail transport. The car tends to dominate the town centre and has a great impact on the retail experience of the town centre. Midsomer Norton & Radstock has a population of 20,000 (and is the shopping focus for South B&NES as well as for Mendip in Somerset). Both Radstock and Midsomer Norton have generally poor highway and pedestrian infrastructure; narrow footways; inadequate crossing places; and proximity to speeding traffic. All these give rise to a poor pedestrian environment. The A367 creates community severance problems at Westfield and the A362 creates similar problems at Welton. There are further problems with HGVs making their way through the built up area to reach the A37 trunk road.
Planned Road Schemes
The Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) sets out the likely growth of the South West Regional economy and the need for greater residential capacity across the sub-region. The Regional Spatial Strategy recognises the national importance of the initiative and the need to increase capacity in a sustainable manner. The RSS does however point out that any increase in housing capacity will also require significant infrastructure expenditure. The following schemes outline some of the priority areas of infrastructure requirement within the sub-region.
136 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
1. The following improvements are proposed by the Bath Public Transport Package (submitted to the central government for funding in March 2006 as approved by the regional assembly on 27th January 2006). (Section 3.4 below for full details of Bath Package) a. New and Expanded P&R – New, 800 space P&R at Lambridge (East of city to serve traffic from A46, A4 and M4). Capacity improvement at existing Lansdown and Odd Down P&R. An extension to Newbridge P&R of 1500 spaces b. Lorry (HGV) Management Scheme: Bath will build on the successful experience of the Bristol Freight Consolidation Scheme, introduced in 2004. This has resulted in 65% fewer delivery vehicle movements with air quality improvements and emission savings for CO2, NOx and PM10. c. A36 Rossiter Road/Cleverton Street - To make parallel Rossiter Road two way to remove the through traffic from Widcombe Parade. See below:
Also the following studies have been carried out in Greater Bristol Strategic Transport Study (2006)
137 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
2. South Bristol Ring Road Phase 1 –A38-A370 (work to start in 2008)
3. Weston-Super-Mare Package Phase 1 (including Worle interchange) (work to start in 2009)
138 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
4. South Bristol Ring Road Phase 2 – Hengrove to A38 (work to start in 2010)
5. Callington Road Link – Access from central Bristol to Bath much easier
139 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
6. A36 to A46 link bypassing Bath Centre providing relief to central Bath by removing through traffic
Only link between A36 Only link between A36 and A46/A4 (East) via and A46/A4 (East) via centrecentre of Bath. No out of Bath. No out ofof City link City link Tremendous Tremendous pressure on pressure on Cleveland Cleveland Bridge and Bridge and London RoadLondon Road
7. M4 J19 to 20 junction improvement to accommodate more capacity (may not have a direct impact on B&NES) – see below.
140 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
8. M5 J16/17 potential widening between junctions to ease local congestion (GBSTS, 2006 – This may not have a direct impact on B&NES) – see below.
To support the schemes above, the Local Plan for Bath (June 1997) identifies the following requirements as mentioned in its Policy T5. According to this Policy the city council will safeguard the land required for the following highway improvement schemes: i. Lower Bristol road (A36) Stage 1: A4 to Windsor Bridge Road ii. Lower Bristol road (A36) Stage 2: Windsor Bridge Road to Pines Way iii. Lower Bristol road (A36) Stage 3: Midland Bridge Road to Churchill Bridge iv. Rossiter Road (A36) v. Entry Hill vi. A4/A46 Junction, Lambridge vii. The Ambury, and viii. Lansdown Road
141 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
8.4 Public transport (bus links) � An extensive bus service is available within Bath City centre. However the coverage for some of the rural areas is less frequent. � There are no special bus lanes on most of the major routes due to an unavailability of space on the existing road network. � The cost to the consumer of public transportation is similar to other cities of SW. This is contrary to a general belief that it is more expensive. � There is a proposal for a Rapid Transit Scheme in Bath, for which a bus based plan has been submitted for funding. Public transport within B&NES is focused on a bus based system. This is because there is now limited rail infrastructure in place (much of this has been removed during the last 50 years). Where rail remains in place significantly shorter journey times can be achieved. For example; the following comparison show travel time into Bath.
Travel Times into Bath
Bath to By rail (minutes) By bus (minutes)
Bradford-on-Avon 13 30
Trowbridge 19 46
Chippenham 15 57
Frome 39 51
Source: Bath Travel to Work 121005
Where bus based travel is used by passengers it has been recognised that, in the majority of cases, this is because no alternative form of transport is available. In the City of Bath out of all the bus users only around one in five bus users had a car available at the time of travel ie, 78% had no choice but to travel by bus and on average 2/3 of the bus journeys are made by women and children (LTP, 2000). Nevertheless, the penetration of bus travel is increasing within B&NES and this is in contrast to the remainder of the UK.
Key routes, frequency and journey times (from/to Radstock, Keynsham and MSN) It can be seen that the bus frequency to Bath from other regional residential pockets vary significantly, from every 15 minutes on the X39 from Bristol, and every 20 minutes from Midsomer Norton & Radstock, to the hourly links with Frome, Melksham and Colerne.
142 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
Trowbridge is one of the well served regional centres, with 2 bus services and 3 rail services per hour into Bath in peak periods. On the other hand Melksham is poorly served. (Bath Travel to Work 121005). The Bus Routes and frequencies are provided in Appendix 1.
Accessibility, capacity and costs
Transportation times
City links Travel time public transportation (min)
Bristol to Bath Under 30/40/50
Keynsham to Bath Under 20/40
Saltford to Bath Under 20
Midsomer Norton & Radstock Under 60/50 to Bath
Source: Summary of Bath Travel to Work Study (using 2001 Census)
Routes Key Routes Issues
Bath-Bristol Good service, but congestion on A4 Bath – North and West Good rail link but not good bus services, Wiltshire (Chippenham) infrequent and old bus services has made car the obvious choice. A4 and A36/B3108 Bristol-Norton-Radstock A37 and A362, narrow single carriage way after Bristol city limits which causes serious congestion problems Bath-Norton-Radstock A367, single carriage way throughout has serious problems (intermittent bus lane facilities) Bath – Bristol North Fringe Congestion along Avon ring road from Hicks Gate, Keynsham and via the Bath-Keynsham- North Fringe rail link (avoiding BTM)
The major problems prevailing within the City for bus travel are congestion in the City Centre, other bottlenecks around the city and punctuality problems of the bus operators. LTP, 2001 2006 Annual Progress Report, July 2005, (Appendices) shows that only 66.33% of journeys are done within the acceptable time limits from the bus time table (i.e. 1 minute early to 5 minutes late) for a day between 7.00 hours and 18.00 hours. However this is just a snap shot sample analysis of one day; therefore does not show the general punctuality of the buses.
143 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
Costs and Comparison:
Route Peak Return (£) Off -peak return (£)
Bath – Radstock 6.00 4.50
Bath – Midsomer Norton 6.00 4.50
Bath – Keynsham 7.00 5.00
Bath – Saltford 6.00 4.50
Bath – Peasedown St. Johns 4.00 3.00
Bath – Frome 7.00 5.00
Bath – Chippenham 7.00 5.00
Bath – Bristol 7.00 5.00
Bristol – Keynsham 4.10 2.60
Bristol – Radstock 7.00 5.00
Source First Group Bus Fee Guide April 2006, Bath City Bus Station
A monthly season for a £7 journey can be taken at a price of £120 per season which is known as Avon Plus scheme. A similar season ticket to travel in Bath city and Bristol all zones will cost £50 and £95 respectively.
144 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
Bath City Fares and comparison of this to some other towns
Zone Bath City Bristol City Taunton Weston S ’ Mare*7
O’ peak Peak O’ peak Peak O’ peak Peak O’ peak Peak
1/A 1.50 1.80 1.60 2.00 1.60 1.60 1.40 1.40
2/C 2.50 3.00 2.40 3.00 2.80 2.80 2.60 2.60
3/E 3.00 3.40 3.20 4.00
F 2.60 4.00
G 3.50 4.10
H 3.50 4.40
Day 4.00 3.40 4.40 3.50 3.40 2.80 3.30 2.80 rider
Source: First Group Bus Fee Guide April 2006, Bath City Bus Station This analysis demonstrates that bus travel within B&NES does not appear to be significantly more expensive than other areas of the Authority.
Other Specific Comments Taxis (LTP, 2000) B&NES operate a two zone system for licensing hackney carriages. In Zone 1 which covers the Bath urban area there is a limit for taxis set currently at 89 licensed taxis. The Zone 1 area comprises nine 24 hour taxi ranks. Outside Bath City the remainder of the district belongs to Zone 2 and there is no maximum licence limit applicable to this Zone. There were 31 Licences in operation in 1999. There are around 170 private hired vehicles. There are 2 licensed taxi ranks in Keynsham and 1 such rank in Midsomer Norton & Radstock.
For community taxis and dial a ride scheme please refer Section 6.
Planned bus schemes
The Greater Bristol Bus network bid proposes 10 bus corridors serving 37 show case bus routes with real time information system at major bus halts (via internet and mobiles). The estimated
7 For Weston Super Mare first row is hop and second row is flat rate. There is no zone division in Weston Super Mare
145 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
amount of funding requirement for this scheme is £68 million out of which £20 million is planned to be provided by the operator £6 million from the developer and £42 from government. A bid was submitted in July 2005 for the central government funding and the scheme has the following schemes planned for the B&NES area. 1. Corridor 4-Bristol to Bath (A4) (This route covers Bristol/Saltford/Keynsham/BWR/BTM/Brislington and serving Brislington P&R serving Bristol and Newbridge P&R serving Bath) 2. Corridor 6 - Bristol/ Midsomer Norton & Radstock (A37) 3. Corridor 10- Bath to Midsomer Norton & Radstock (A367) covering Bath/Peasedown St. John/Norton-Radstock though P&R serves Bath at Odd Down In addition the ‘Bath Public Transport Package’ to be submitted in May 2006 with a total estimated cost of £65 million includes the following seven major schemes. 1. Showcase bus routes – this includes upgrading the following key local routes in the city to ‘showcase’ standard, providing bus priority, real time information, modern low floor buses and improved stops services etc. The services identified are 14 (RUH), 10(Southdown), 5 (Twerton), 6/7 (Larkhall and Fairfield Park), 2/4 (Lansdown, Bathampton and Coombe Down), 16/17 (Weston, Whiteway, Oldfield Park and Kingsway) and 13 (Fox Hill and St. Martin’s Hospital to city centre and Batheaston/Bathford). All these routes are priority local routes which link residential areas to the city centre and serve the universities and hospitals. 2. Bus Rapid Transit – This will use part of the disused railway line linking the proposed new P&R at Newbridge to the City Centre passing through BWR and Green Park. Three Bus Rapid Transit routes will serve the city centre from Newbridge and Lambridge P&R sites and the University of Bath. They will also serve residential areas beyond these locations. 3. New and Expanded P&R – New, 800 space P&R at Lambridge (East of city to serve traffic from A46, A4 and M4). Capacity improvement at existing Lansdown and Odd down P&R. An extension to Newbridge P&R of 1500 spaces. 4. Pedestrianisation and pedestrian safety schemes to encourage walking. 5. Travel Information System - Variable Message Signing, directing drivers to park at car parks with spaces available. 6. Lorry (HGV) Management Scheme. 7. A36 Rossiter Road/Claverton Street - To make parallel Rossiter Road two way to remove the through traffic from Widcombe Parade.
Rapid Transit
Bath City had a tram system until 1939. Recently (in 1995 and 1997) there have been studies conducted to investigate the suitability of a new Light Rapid Transit (LRT) scheme for Bath
146 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
which would link Newbridge P&R with the city centre and the proposed Lambridge P&R. These studies recommended that a guided bus system is a more attractive option for Bath. Once again in year 2000 a study was conducted to examine the possibility of developing a city wide tram network for Bath. This study confirmed that attention should continue to be focused on achieving a rapid transport system through the corridor covering Newbridge, Bath Western Riverside (BWR), City Centre and Lambridge P&R and suggested that rail based technology should be considered as a possible alternative to guided bus for this route (B&NES Local Plan 2003). In addition the Bath Local Plan, 1997 supports the idea of rapid transport link and its policy number T19 further directs as follows - “the City Council will encourage further investigation of the possibility of enhancing the P&R service by the provision of a rapid transit link between the Newbridge and the proposed Lambridge P&R site, and the city centre, and will if considered appropriate, safeguard the possible route of such a link from development.” Currently there are proposals to provide some form of rapid transit to link a transport interchange at Newbridge with the BWR area and the City Centre up to Lambridge. It is proposed now that this will be a bus based rapid transport system and it is included in the ‘Bath Public Transport Package’.
8.5 Rail B&NES Council has only four train stations namely Bath Spa, Freshford, Keynsham, Oldfield Park (B&NES Local Plan, 2003). In November 1999 about 11,000 passengers commuted from the stations within B&NES. The time taken to commute to Bradford-on-Avon, Trowbridge, Chippenham and Frome from Bath is given in Section 8.3 above. Rail is recognised as an effective part of the public transport offer and some attention has been given to understanding the role rail might play in transport provision across the sub region. In June 2000 the Council together with the other former Avon authorities adopted the ‘Rail Strategy for Bristol, Bath and Weston super Mare area’. The strategy included the reopening of the Radstock to Frome line and Saltford station. The strategy is less specific about rail freight with no infrastructure proposals for B&NES apart from the retention of the railhead facility at Westmoreland Station Road (Bath), used for transportation of waste. (B&NES Local Plan 2003) The B&NES Local Plan 2003 identifies the following lines and designates them as Sustainable Transport Routes in accordance with Structure Plan Policy 53. a. Former GWR – BNS line between Whitchurch and Radstock, and Camerton Branch from Hallatrow to Limpley Stoke b. Former Midland Railway line between Saltford and Bath (Green Park)
c. Former Somerset and Dorset Railway line between Bath (Green Park) and Midsomer Norton Generally the following key features can be identified;
147 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
� B&NES Somerset is connected to the main British Rail network via Bath Spa and Bristol Temple Meads and Parkway stations. � There is no extensive rail network within B&NES
� Connectivity from Bath to main destinations are adequate but locations outside of Bath have an infrequent service
Key routes, frequency and journey times Some key routes, journey times and standard journey costs are given in the table below.
Train Journey Time and Costs
Journey Operator Time Cost (saver return)
Bath to Bristol Temple FGW/Wessex/South 10/20 min £5.80 (std. day return) Meads (BTM) West
Bath to Bristol Park FGW/Wessex/Virgin 35/45 min £6.90 (std. day return) Way (BPW)
Bath to Keynsham Wessex/South West 10 min £3.40 (std. day return)
Bath to Filton Abbey FGW 30/40 min £6.90 (std. day return) Wood
Bath Spa to London FGW 1 hr. 30 min £45 Paddington
Bath to Oxford (via FGW/GW Link 1 hr 30 min £20.50 Didcot)
Bath to Weymouth Wessex/South West 2 hrs £19.70
Bath to Southampton Wessex/Virgin/FGW 1 hr. 30 min £23.60
Bath to Birmingham FGW/Virgin/South 2 hrs £38.90 West/Wessex
Bath to Portsmouth Wessex Trains 2 hr. 15 min £30.70
Bath to Cardiff Wessex 1 hr/1 hr. 30 min £16.40(std. day Trains/FGW/Virgin return)
Bath to Swansea Wessex 2 hr/ 3hr £29.20 Trains/FGW/Arriva Trains Wales
Source: National rail enquiries
148 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
With the exception of services to Weymouth, Southampton, Portsmouth, Swansea services the train services from Bath are generally comfortable and offer convenient timing but journeys to BPW and Filton/Abbey Wood take too long compared to their real distance and as a result rail does not offer a genuine alternative to the car. Keynsham, Oldfield Park and Freshford have a less frequent rail service and whilst journey times are acceptable the infrequency of the service limits the effectiveness of rail from these locations as an alternative to other means of transport. The capacity of the line limits the ability of First Great Western to increase the service offered. There is a risk to rail services from London to the South West with First Great Western (FGW) reducing service frequency from Winter 2006 in line with the proposals they made in securing the West Country mainline rail franchise.
Accessibility, capacity costs The train operator FGW connects Bath with South West, BTM, Chippenham, Swindon, Oxford, Reading (for LHR and LGW airports) and London Paddington Wessex Trains connects Bath with South Wales, Filton Abbey Wood, BTM, Keynsham, Oldfield Park, Freshford, Avoncliffe, Bradford-upon-Avon, Trowbridge, Westbury and to Yeovil and Weymouth OR to Southampton and Portsmouth Virgin Trains connects Bath via BTM to the South West and BPW to Gloucester, the Midlands and the North (Source: Public Transport Map 2005-2006 (B&NES Council) For the standard journey costs please refer table in the section above. There is limited car parking at the rail stations in B&NES especially in Bath where longer journeys are being undertaken and there is a need for commuter parking. Station cycle parking is already relatively good at Keynsham and Bath Spa Stations which are more accessible to cyclists than Freshford. However cycle parking facilities are relatively poor at Oldfield Park Station in Bath.
Additional Comments Achievements to date are (Source: LTP 2000, Appendix 1) i. Improved car parking and/or station facilities at Keynsham, Oldfield Park ii. New service Bath-Filton Abbey Wood in association with Wales & West and using Rail Passenger Partnership (RPP) funds
149 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
Transport interchange: According to B&NES Local Plan 2003 Policy T12 to encourage transport interchanges, the council is seeking to secure an efficient public transport interchange incorporating enhanced amenities and facilities for passengers and operators at the following locations. i. Bath Spa railway station/bus station ii. MSN town centre
iii. Radstock town centre iv. Keynsham town centre v. Keynsham railway station
vi. Newbridge, Bath
Planned schemes
A plan to build a 3rd platform in BPW Station is in the short term Rail action plan in the FJLTP 2005 and a 4th platform (BPW) is also identified as a possibility in the medium term plan in the same document. These additional platforms will improve reliability and enhance services and service frequencies, specifically from Bath to Wales and to Bristol North Fringe.
8.6 Air Transport � Bristol Airport (BIA) plays an important role in air travel for the residents of B&NES. However LHR remains the more important airport for business connectivity as the connectivity of BIA is limited to a relatively small number of international destinations. � Connectivity of LHR is through M4 and connectivity of BIA is through congested roads of South of Bristol. Bristol International Airport (BIA) acts as an important air travel hub for the B&NES Council. The London airports provide a more comprehensive international (non-European) service. This may shift gradually over time. BIA is the second fastest growing airport in the UK in 2004. In 2004, 4.6 million passengers passed through the airport’s doors. During this year eleven new scheduled routes were introduced (Aberdeen, Bergerac, Berlin, Bordeaux, Budapest, Geneva, Madrid, Manchester, Plymouth, Rome and Valencia) and three scheduled airlines joined the airport (Aer Lingus, Air Southwest and Eastern Airlines). In May 2005, Continental Airlines launched a direct service to New York from Bristol.
Bristol air port upgrading plans In 2004 BIA handled 4.6 million passengers. It is estimated that BIA will handle around 7.2 million passengers by year 2015 and 11.6 million passengers by 2030. This represents and
150 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
average annual growth rate of 4.1% from 2003 values. However for the last 10 years the average annual growth rate was 13.3% for BIA. Due to the high demand identified above, BIA plans to develop significant additional facilities (eg, New or an extension to the Terminal building, increasing parking facilities and possible extensions to runway and taxiways) are set out in the Proposed Master Plan for BIA, February 2005 (www.bristolairport.co.uk ).
Connections At present the airport serves a network of 37 non stop international and domestic scheduled destinations with a further 52 routes operated by charter airlines. The tables below show the direct travel destinations from BIA. UK Durham Tees Valley Isle of Man Leeds-Bradford Manchester Newcastle Newquay Plymouth Aberdeen Edinburgh Glasgow Inverness Guernsey Jersey Belfast City Belfast International
Republic of Ireland Dublin Cork Shannon
Europe Non-Charter Italy – Milan, Pisa, France – Bergerac, Germany – Berlin, Spain – Alicante, Rome, Venice Bordeaux, Grenoble, Bremen, Frankfurt, Barcelona, Madrid, Nice, Paris, Toulouse Hamburg,Munich Malaga, Murcia, Valencia Switzerland – Belgium – Brussels Holland – Amsterdam Portugal – Faro Geneva, Zurich Hungary – Budapest Czech Republic – Malta – Luqa Spanish Balearic Prague Islands – Mahon, Palma
Charter (only operates in summer) Austria Bulgaria Greece/Greek Islands Turkey Croatia Cyprus Sardinia Corsica
151 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
Other Non charter New York, USA Charter (only operates in summer) Egypt Tunisia Gambia Canary Islands Source: www.bristolairport.co.uk
Connectivity to BIA from B&NES
The airport bus service known as “Bristol flyer” has services every 20 minutes to BIA from BTM Station or Central Bus Station in Bristol (the journey time is approximately 30 minutes) and a return ticket costs £7 per person. In addition the airport currently provides about 8000 long stay and 360 (short stay) car parking spaces at the airport site (Proposed Master Plan for BIA, February 2005). Bristol airport is about one hours drive by car from Bath and the journey by public transport is estimated to take a similar duration (Rail-Flyer route via BTM). The public transport route costs about £13 return (£7+£5.40). (www.nationalrail.co.uk ) Currently there is no flyer/similar service to BIA from Bath. A plan to extend Flyer services to north Bristol and Worle in the medium term with an additional flyer service to Bath in the long term is analysed in the GBSTS 2006. With the construction of South Bristol Ring Road linking A4, A37, A38 and A370 accessibility to BIA from Bath, Keynsham and Saltford is likely to be somewhat improved.
8.7 Rural areas � Most of the rural areas are not connected adequately by public transport. There are some dial-a-ride and fare-car schemes at present. In B&NES there are around 44,000 residents living in 47 rural parishes out of which about 66% live in 14 large villages such as Batheaston, Bathford, Bathampton (acting principally as dormitory settlements for Bath) and Whitchurch (on the A37 in Bristol City Council borders). These villages are located on main bus corridors; however some of the outlying housing in these areas is often relatively inaccessible to public transport. There are also major road safety issues for these larger villages and congestion at peak time or during highway maintenance (due to lack of alternative routes). (LTP 2000) The population categories of these 47 parishes are given below.
152 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
Population in Parishes Population category Number of parishes Less than 300 people 13 From 301 – 500 10 From 501 – 1000 09 More than 1001 15 Source: LTP 2000 quoting Unmet Rural Transport Need Study, 1997
All parishes with a population of 200 or above have regular peak hour bus services supported by the Council. Parishes with a population of over 660 have evening and Sunday services and the parishes with a population of 100 and above have at least one day a week bus service with continuing support from the council. (LTP 2000) The population of rural households within 13 minutes walk of an hourly or better bus service is now 52.4% in B&NES, whilst this represents progress it is still a provision at a level below the 04/05 interim targets (LTP, 2000, Annual Progress Report 2005). The main schemes introduced for the main rural areas are; 1. Dial-a-Ride scheme i. Keynsham Dial-a-Ride scheme was introduced in March 2003 ii. Midsomer Norton and Radstock Dial-a-ride scheme was introduced in Nov 2004 These schemes are aimed at people who cannot access conventional transport. Both the Dial-a- Ride services operate with financial support from the Council and the Norton-Radstock scheme also gets support from South West of England Regional Development Agency. At the moment one vehicle each is operating in these areas but from 2006 July/August onwards there will an additional vehicle per scheme and the coverage area will be widened. 2. Fare Car Currently there is only one scheme covering rural areas towards North of Bath (covering Lansdown, Tadwick, Langridge, Upper Langridge, Wolley, Swainswick, Upper Swainswick, Northend and St. Catherine) operated by Bath Taxis. The service commenced in May 2005. The service charge £1.00 per person for a single trip to Bath and operates on Wednesdays and Fridays only. A similar new scheme is introduced covering south of Bath (Combe Hay, Wellow and Shoscombe area) replacing bus route 757 in 2006 summer. 3. Rural bus schemes: Chew Valley Explorer (goes to Mendip hill) covers a wider Chew Valley area and undertakes 5 journeys per day including weekends. 4. Royal United Hospital P&R service 42 in Bath – The users around Twerton and Whiteway are able to phone a call centre in advance of their journey and then the bus diverts from the regular route to pick them up at their nearest bus stop.
153 Solutions in Regional Development Section 8
Research - Transport
Cycle Network There are 3 main national cycle routes go through B&NES. Bristol and Bath are connected by the National Cycle route 4. Frome and Radstock are connected with NCR 24 (discontinued from Warminster to Frome) and Whitchurch and Chew Stoke is connected with NCR 3. There are plans to extend these networks to have access to other national routes.
8.8 Conclusion The road links within B&NES are relatively poor. The network results in the relative isolation of Midsomer Norton and Radstock, whilst at the same time, funnelling traffic from the Authority and the beyond through Bath, where a number of trunk roads meet, and up to the M4 Motorway. Public transport is dominated by the bus, but there is little provision of dedicated bus lanes or priority junctions for buses and as a result there is no time benefit for catching public transport for commuter journeys. The provision of effective rail transport is limited to Bath, with the smaller stations of Oldfield Park, Keynsham and Freshford having an infrequent service which limits the alternative that rail offers over road transport. The RSS sets out a clear requirement for improved infrastructure in the South West if the area is to increase its housing provision. The main scheme identified is the Bristol South Ring Road and this may provide some opportunities for B&NES depending upon its route, quality and associated investment work.
154 Solutions in Regional Development Section 9
Analysis - Keynsham
9.1 Introduction Keynsham represents an opportunity for B&NES. It is located on the Bristol ring road, close to both Bristol and Bath but retains its own identity and has many of the characteristics which create a successful residential town. At present, however, the overall image of the town is poor and this is mainly due to the ageing town centre. With some redevelopment, the town can take advantage of the growth of Bristol and from its position in the sub-region. 9.2 Summary
Current position Trends and Conclusion Recommendations and key points potential result
Keynsham is largely a If the character and service Existing employment sites Identify and help bring dormitory town for Bristol provision of the town is to be should be retained. More forward the employment sites and Bath. The town has a preserved, there must be a could be done to involve identified within this business single large private sector continued provision of Cadbury in the development plan. employer. employment in the town. of Keynsham. Establish dialogue with Cadbury remains a significant Cadbury at a number of levels employer and is important to – local, estates and strategic the vitality of the community. business unit.
Keynsham has a markedly Economic inactivity through Keynsham has a need to The position of Keynsham ageing demographic profile retirement has impacted on create employment between Bath and Bristol with caused by relocation from the vitality of the high street, opportunities as the reasonable connections to Bristol in the 1960s impacting in expenditure but demographic age profile North Bristol and the M5 will increasing weekday footfall. becomes younger allow Keynsham to become a natural location for businesses As the demographic profile in Bath who have a sub continues to shift there will be regional focus and are a loss of regular shoppers. displaced through growing development of the Bath Centre.
Large areas of the town centre If new residents are to be The Town Hall and associated The Council should redevelop are unattractive, dated and attracted to Keynsham and the retail units are within Council the Town Hall and parade suffer from traffic intrusion. character of the town ownership and must be area with a focus on the This has a major impact on developed as the demographic redeveloped as a priority. This provision of small retail units the overall impression of the shifts, the town centre needs can enhance the independent suitable for independent use. town. some improvement. offer of the high street and This could provide a new improve the centre visually location for the Farmers Without improvement the Market. high street will become increasingly unappealing and the function of Keynsham as a distinct town will be lost.
155 Solutions in Regional Development Section 9
Analysis - Keynsham
There are further retail sites Keynsham will always There is a greater need to Focus on the existing retail available for development. compete with Bristol and Bath preserve existing retail and and remove the pressure to for both large scale create a successful town hall develop Charlton Road at this convenience shopping and redevelopment scheme than to stage in development. comparison shopping. attract additional retail. The provision of parking A demographic shift to a Any additional retail should should continue to ensure that younger and more mobile be significantly different to it is as easy to visit Keynsham resident is likely to reduce the high street top avoid as competing out of town footfall. competition and draw people developments in Bristol. into the town. There is sufficient large grocery multiple coverage in A lifestyle retail offer – the Bristol suburbs to serve furniture, garden centre, Keynsham. Borders book store may be suitable.
Riverside is a very large An empty Riverside would be The Council should not move There is no urgent development for the overall extremely damaging for out of Riverside until the requirement for the Council to scale of the town. Keynsham. It would impact Town Hall redevelopment is vacate the Riverside offices. on the vitality of the high complete and until a future The potential relocation of street; would distort the use has been contractually It is important that the Council employees from Riverside development commercial property market secured. Riverside will impact on the through apparent low market remains in active use during vitality of the High Street. rentals but in space which is Since an office use is unlikely the redevelopment of the the main option appears to be Town Hall and until a unsuitable for modern offices; it would further diminish the residential – through contractually certain use has attractiveness of the town. redevelopment or demolition. been secured.
Keynsham has a strong The RSS makes specific There should not be large Housing developments should residential property market. reference for the need to residential development in be measured. There are potential sites for retain the spatial integrity of Keynsham and the scale will further development. Keynsham and only provide depend upon the use identified residential development for Riverside. The provision of leisure alongside increasing There is also a potential need activities, parkland, education employment opportunities. and other amenities is strong to develop further care home making Keynsham a provision. potentially attractive location.
Transport provision in Traffic flows are a further The roadscape in Keynsham Change the visual nature of Keynsham is reasonable but detraction from the overall could be improved; there are the high street; converge traffic dominates the high attractiveness of the High opportunities to further divert busses behind the high street street and bus routes do not Street. traffic flows and there are and develop the river crossing converge at a single location. suitable locations for bus scheme. route convergence.
156 Solutions in Regional Development Section 9
Analysis - Keynsham
9.3 Economy The three most marked features of the Keynsham economy are the age profile; the commuting pattern and the dominance of Cadbury as a private employer.
Age Profile The age profile of Keynsham is illustrated below.
Age Profile Of Keynsham vs England & Wales
Aged 100 and over
Aged 90 to 94
Aged 80 to 84
Aged 70 to 74
Aged 60 to 64
Keynsham % Aged 50 to 54 England & Wales%
Aged 40 to 44
Aged 30 to 34
Aged 20 to 24
Aged 10 to 14
Aged 0 to 4
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00
Percentage
Source: Nomis 2001 census
157 Solutions in Regional Development Section 9
Analysis - Keynsham
This graph clearly illustrates that the proportion of the population over 50 years of age is significantly greater in Keynsham than the average for England and Wales. This is important for the character of the town as a whole. The ageing demographic has resulted in a large proportion of people who are relatively time rich and cash poor. This, in turn, has influenced the High Street with residents having restricted incomes but with time available to shop during the week. As a result, Keynsham has developed a price conscious retail core but with a steady footfall during weekdays. It is likely that the current population profile will shift markedly over time. The biggest difference in the population proportions between Keynsham and the UK average are in those age cohorts greater than 70 years of age. Clearly, therefore, the demographic pattern of Keynsham is likely to change over the next twenty years and the characteristics of the town, with highly rated schools and a good residential environment are likely to attract more families. This will in turn impact on the nature of the town.
Dormitory Town It is likely that as the population demographic shifts, so in turn will out-commuting. At present, Keynsham can be regarded as a dormitory town for Bristol and Bath. This document has already demonstrated that there is out-commuting from the town (Keynsham and Saltford) of 8,957 people per day whilst employment in the town is 10,496. With no additional employment space generated in Keynsham, the level of out commuting will inevitably rise as the demographic position shifts and a greater proportion of residents are of working age. The nature of out-commuting in Keynsham is illustrated in the graph below.
158 Solutions in Regional Development Section 9
Analysis - Keynsham
Distance Travelled to Work
Other
Working at or from home
60km and ov er
40km to less than 60km
30km to less than 40km Key nsham England & Wales 20km to less than 30km
10km to less than 20km
5km to less than 10km
2km to less than 5km
Less than 2km
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Percentage
Source: Nomis 2001 Census
The nature of Keynsham with a distinct town centre creating employment ensures that a greater level of local employment is generated in a location of less than 2km than the average for England & Wales but the domination of the travel distance of between 5-10km from Keynsham illustrates the importance of Bath and Bristol. There are a number of economic problems associated with towns which are essentially dormitories for adjacent cities. The out-commuting leads to a limited footfall within the town centres during the working week and an increased likelihood that any retail expenditure is made in the location where residents work rather than in Keynsham. An increase in outbound commuting as the proportion of elderly residents decline will have a negative impact on the retail environment. This situation could be exacerbated by the policy of the Council to co-locate activities in a new purpose built facility in Bath.
159 Solutions in Regional Development Section 9
Analysis - Keynsham
Cadbury Cadbury is the largest private employer in Keynsham. Their presence mitigates net out- commuting at present and remains important to the town although in reality Cadbury probably generates a large amount of in-commuting with Keynsham residents travelling in the opposite direction. The Cadbury Somerdale factory is one of the Group’s two major UK finished product manufacturing sites in the UK. The other similar plant is at Bournville. The Somerdale plant processes chocolate crumb into a range of major products (Curly Wurly; Crunchie; Fry’s; Fudge; Chomp; Picnic; Double Decker; and Mini Eggs). B&NES estimates that the site employs 600 people (the Cadbury web site states 1,000 but this is likely to be made up of part time and seasonal workers). There appears to be no immediate risk to the facility, although in the last 5 years both Mars Confectionary and Nestle have closed UK chocolate manufacturing sites and moved their operations to less expensive European locations. In addition the nature of the Somerdale site is unlikely to be ideal because of the multiple floors of the facility (the site was originally constructed in 1923). Despite this Cadbury state that £30m was invested in Somerdale and Bournville between 2001-2003. The reliance of Cadbury as the only significant private sector employer in the town is a weakness for the overall economy of the town.
Demand for Employment Space There is a need to increase employment in order to create better balance within the town and to reduce the proportion of out-commuting, especially if Keynsham is to accommodate a higher level of housing. There is a need, however, to attempt to stimulate this demand. In the current circumstances, Roger Tym estimated8 that between 2001-2011 employment in manufacturing would marginally fall and this would result in a requirement for 3,500m2 less manufacturing space. The same report forecast no overall change in the requirement for office space (or employment) in Keynsham. Given the current manufacturing environment in the UK, it is difficult to envisage Keynsham securing large new manufacturing investment, but with some promotion of the location, there is the opportunity to secure relocated businesses from Bath or Bristol and businesses focused on the provision of services to the sub-region. The continued full level of occupancy of light industrial premises also suggests that there is a demand for property. There is therefore the opportunity to gradually make available further developments of light manufacturing space. This can improve current stock; attract relocating businesses; and secure some new employment growth. There is no current market to assist in projecting demand for
8 Business Location Requirements for B&NES 2003, Roger Tym & Partners
160 Solutions in Regional Development Section 9
Analysis - Keynsham
this type of property but this could be judged as new phases of development are released. The small examples of new development (such as those off Keynsham Road in S. Gloucestershire) appear to have been successful. In particular, pressure for land along the zones of transition on the radial routes in Bath and likely to generate requirements for relocating businesses. The office market in Keynsham is equally difficult to judge. Roger Tym estimate no change in the demand for office space but this assumes that Riverside will continue to offer a large provision of office space. The reality is that Riverside does not offer the type of office space required in Keynsham. Not only is the development ageing with a lack of ability to install raised floors and air conditioning but the floor plates are too large. B&NES Council demand figures for office space in Keynsham indicate that almost all demand for office space is for units below 1,000m2 and the majority of enquiries are for units below 250m2. This suggests that as a minimum requirement, Keynsham needs to provide some small modern office units to match the reduction in office space provision in the Riverside. This will also test the market. Overall, therefore, there is no current market evidence that Keynsham can dramatically increase employment levels but with the forecast growth of Bristol and the proximity of the town to the motorway network there does appear to be the potential for a measured employment expansion.
9.4 Retail Keynsham is not a major retail centre by national standards and in 2004 only ranked as the 685th most important centre in the UK according to the Management Horizons rankings9. The town is however a thriving sub-regional location with an extremely low vacancy rate (4.1% against a UK average of 10.5%) and a reasonably buoyant rental rate. The retail indices focus on the number of national multiple retailers within a town and the position of Keynsham between Bath and Bristol results in a lack of demand from many national retailers although this could help to reinforce the unique offer of the current High Street. Nathaniel Litchfield concluded that Keynsham has a slightly greater convenience retailer proportion than the UK average and this included a number of independent grocery retailers (butchers, bakers and greengrocers). Nathanial Lichfield also estimated that Keynsham offered a similar amount of retail space to that required given the size of the population. Not only does Keynsham have a similar level of retail provision to that expected of a town of its size, but in addition shopper survey data demonstrates that 41% of Keynsham residents undertake their grocery shopping in Longwell Green (outside of B&NES). On this basis, given that 41% of residents leave the town for convenience shopping, it may be suggested that Keynsham has a greater level of retail activity than would be predicted using standard retail models. Much has been made of the ‘leakage’ of retain expenditure to Longwell Green and this is technically true since Longwell Green is outside of B&NES. Given the distance of Longwell
9 Nathanial Lichfield Study for B&NES 2004
161 Solutions in Regional Development Section 9
Analysis - Keynsham
Green at less than 5 miles from Keynsham this report does recognise the expenditure as significant leakage but rather an accident of a political boundary. On the basis of the strong retail provision, combined with the likely shift in demographic within Keynsham to a more mobile population, there appears to be little need for additional retail space. Indeed, there appears to be a need to protect the current offer by refreshing the retail experience through redevelopment and by supporting the initiatives such as a better High Street environment; Fair Trade; Farmers markets; and festivals. On this basis there seems no need to develop a grocery store at Charlton Road. There is no evidence of a market for such a store (other than to potentially divert expenditure from Longwell Green) and any such store will also threaten the independent grocery offer of the High Street which is the differentiation of Keynsham from adjacent locations. As the population becomes younger and more affluent, the independent retail offer linked an increased prominence of the Fair Trade brand could become a significant differentiator.
9.5 Housing The report has already identified the residential character of the town and the current reliance on out-commuting despite the proportion of the population who have retired. In addition, the development of Keynsham has already spread geographically to the point where residents in out-lying areas live a significant distance from the town centre. This impacts on the environmental sustainability of the town. There are some sites available on the outer fringes of Keynsham but the importance of the greenbelt between the town and Bristol to the West; and Saltford to the East restricts potential opportunities to the South. Sequentially, there are also opportunities within the centre of Keynsham. The Riverside scheme is likely to yield some opportunities for residential units and the site at Charlton Road could also provide greater residential capacity within the heart of the town.
9.6 Transport Keynsham is the best connected location within B&NES. The location close to the Bristol ring road, as it is completed, will increase the strategic position of the town. The rail link is a useful link into Bristol/Bath and the mainline system, although the frequency of trains and the capacity constraints of the line limit its overall practical benefit. The bus provision for the town is generally strong but there is no common terminus and as a result busses add to traffic within the town centre and the routing is confusing. The Keynsham bi-pass diverts traffic from Bath to Bristol away from the town centre but the remainder of the traffic is forced through the town centre. This impacts on the overall retail experience and in particular places significant traffic pressure on the junctions along the High Street.
162 Solutions in Regional Development Section 9
Analysis - Keynsham
As the town centre redevelopment is taken forward there is an opportunity to realign junctions, improve the pedestrian environment and re-route busses.
163 Solutions in Regional Development Section 10
Analysis - Midsomer Norton, Radstock, Paulton & Peasedown St. John
10.1 Introduction Midsomer Norton and Radstock in the South of B&NES share a Town Council – Midsomer Norton & Radstock Town Council. The towns are also close to Paulton and Peasedown St. John and a number of smaller associated settlements. This area is the least affluent part of B&NES with more limited job opportunities and lower house prices than the remainder of the Authority.
10.2 Summary
Current position Trends and Conclusion Recommendations and key points potential result
Whilst at full employment, the Low wage levels and out- There is a need to create a There is no quick fix to the area suffers from too few commuting result in limited range of employment economic difficulties. skills in the current workforce retail expenditure. This has opportunities. These need to and low wages or out- resulted in under-investment offer opportunities for the Investor development activity; SME business support; commuting. in Midsomer Norton High current unskilled workforce Street. but also some aspirational attraction of new investment; employment to encourage and new initiatives around culture, arts and tourism have skills development as well as the retention of young people a role. who are gaining qualifications.
The economy is dominated by There have been a number of There is a further risk to There is a short term need to paper, printing and packaging job losses in the paper, employment in the area in the address the site issues companies. printing and packaging medium term and the loss of affecting Welton, Bibby & industry and this is likely to only one employer could have Baron and Alcan. continue. Welton Bibby & a disproportionate impact on There is an opportunity and a Baron; Communisis and the area. Alcan account for a large need to create a sector number of employees. initiative for paper, printing and packaging. Without diversification there
is a threat to the local economy.
The area has failed to secure Without new employers the The area will not win major More needs to be done to major new employers economy will continue to new manufacturing unlock the potential of the decline. investment. current employment sites and then promote the There are very limited A better service sector opportunities. This could opportunities to secure new proposition can be developed include some limited (and manufacturing investment in where the area is shown as a public sector supported) the UK economy and the road single entity with critical speculative development. links to the area will not assist
164 Solutions in Regional Development Section 10
Analysis - Midsomer Norton, Radstock, Paulton & Peasedown St. John
in the pursuit of mass. Develop a service sector manufacturing investment. investment marketing There are a number of public proposition for Midsomer Service sector investment sector organisations operating Norton & Radstock. seeks a scale of workforce to within Bath on constrained
ensure recruitment is possible. and valuable sites. There are a Engage in dialogue with number of potential ‘win-win’ existing investors and public relocations. sector organisations with a ‘turnkey’ alternative property solution.
As a large scale employer and with existing office space in the town, the Council should seek to maximise its presence in the area.
The area has a strong living The growing strengths of the The growing skills of school environment with improved secondary school and the leavers and the demand for education provision, low access to the Midsomer housing simply confirm the crime rates and community Norton College suggest that need to diversity employment. service provision. the workforce skills mix will shift over time.
A low crime rate, provision of services and access to the countryside will continue to attract residents to the area – albeit, at present, these residents commute to Bath and Bristol.
Retail is located in Radstock The limited strength of the The current position of Support the Midsomer Norton and Midsomer Norton economy; relatively small Midsomer Norton as the High Street and the attraction population; and the proximity District Centre with Radstock of a limited number of chain of Midsomer Norton to as an Ancillary Centre stores. Retail development Radstock mean that a meeting local needs is the should be entirely focused on competing retail offer is not correct approach. the High Street. possible. Radstock has a heritage, arts, Develop the community arts Development of a competing craft and potential leisure projects within Radstock and retail strategy for both offer which may better define promote the area as an locations will result in damage its role within the towns. opportunity for displaced for both town centres. The artisan businesses from Bath. strategy must be Encourage an art, crafts, complementary. heritage market offer in the town and consider Radstock as an alternative/additional
165 Solutions in Regional Development Section 10
Analysis - Midsomer Norton, Radstock, Paulton & Peasedown St. John
location for the farmers market.
Encourage more local service provision through convenience stores in the remaining communities.
Vacant sites come under If there is to be a sustainable The primary need of the area Ensure a balance in the future pressure for residential community in the area, there is to secure employment. between new large residential development is a need for economic critical Housing development should schemes and the provision of mass. be limited until more employment. employment opportunities Significant additional housing have been delivered. without associated employment will not help the community and will continue the current trends in commuting.
B&NES fails to deliver the There is an affordability issue The low wage levels in Be more sympathetic to affordable housing needs of in B&NES but this is not a Midsomer Norton & Radstock planning applications for the area. reason the over develop and the position of the area as smaller developments of high residential in Midsomer a dormitory town for Bath key quality housing in the more Norton & Radstock and workers suggest that deprived wards where surrounding communities. affordability proportions for affordability ratios are not Affordable housing in new developments could be achieved. Midsomer Norton & Radstock reduced in the most deprived has been used as informal wards. ‘key worker’ for Bath but this does not support Midsomer Norton & Radstock.
Transport linkages are poor Midsomer Norton & Radstock There is peak time congestion Ideally road links to Bath, is only connected by road but this is not significantly Bristol and the motorway transport. Roads are poor, worse than around similar should be improved. This is safety is an issue and there is cities and improvements are unlikely to happen. congestion between Midsomer therefore unlikely to gain Norton & Radstock and both Government support. As a priority therefore, seek to include links to Midsomer Bath and Bristol at peak The single land highway times. Norton & Radstock as part of allows no advantage for the any Bristol Southern Ring Poor road transport limits the bus and therefore provides Road extension. This may attractiveness of the area for little incentive to switch from allow better motorway access. investment. car to bus Where possible seek to Poor transport will continue to Links to the motorway are provide dedicated road space limit the potential of the area. poor and this is the critical and priority access for busses limiting factor in gaining during commuter periods on investment rather than links to
166 Solutions in Regional Development Section 10
Analysis - Midsomer Norton, Radstock, Paulton & Peasedown St. John
Bath. the links to Bath and Bristol.
Improved links with Bristol may help position Midsomer Norton & Radstock as an individual and aspirational area within an expanded Southern Bristol.
10.3 Economy The weaknesses in the economy of Midsomer Norton & Radstock are partially masked by the low unemployment figures for the area. This is not however due to high employment levels within Midsomer Norton & Radstock itself. Between 1996 and 2001employment in the area declined by 17% and although there was an improvement between 2001 and 2004 (B&NES Economic Profiles) employment within Midsomer Norton & Radstock has not recovered to 1996 levels. Nevertheless the area had a Claimant Count of only 1.1% in March 2006. The apparent anomaly is a consequence of the level of out-commuting from the area. Council data demonstrates that nearly as many people commute out of Midsomer Norton & Radstock (19,281) as actually work in the area (21,564). A further anomaly is that Midsomer Norton & Radstock is assumed to suffer from low wages. In fact the high level of out-commuting has also prevented wage levels falling significantly below surrounding areas. ONS Neighbourhood Statistics estimate the following Household Income levels: Household Income Levels for Selected Wards £/week
Keynsham East 580 Peasedown 570 Midsomer Norton North 560 Midsomer Norton Redfield 540 Keynsham North 530 Paulton 520 Radstock 480 Keynsham South 440 Twerton 380 Source: ONS 2001 Model based estimates of Income on a Ward Basis
On the basis of these figures, Radstock is not a high earning area but has significantly higher wage levels than Twerton.
167 Solutions in Regional Development Section 10
Analysis - Midsomer Norton, Radstock, Paulton & Peasedown St. John
These figures are, however, household income levels and as a result of a combination of the commuter patterns, skills levels, occupation classification and economic activity levels, Midsomer Norton & Radstock can be classified as a hard working area with limited wage levels but with a higher proportion of earners per household than in many other wards in Bath. A review of the significant employers supports this conclusion. After the decline in coal mining the area attracted a number of printing and packaging companies. The largest of these companies include Alcan (food packaging); Communisis (printing); and Welton Bibby & Baron Packaging (Paper bags food packaging). Recently the printing company, Polestar, relocated from Paulton to Sheffield ceasing all activity at Paulton and resulting in the loss of 600 jobs. Printing and packaging is a low margin business which is under considerable cost pressure and has suffered from the combination of changes in technology and a migration of the final customer to lower cost locations. The industry is labour intensive but does not generate high salary levels. The current large businesses listed (Alcan, Communisis and Welton Bibby & Baron) appear to trade at a profit and the Midsomer Norton & Radstock divisions appear to be important to their overall operations but it is difficult to envisage no further reductions in the industry over the next 10 years. With this in mind, Roger Tym (Business Location Requirements for B&NES 2003) estimated that there would be a reduction in requirement of 14,000m2 for industrial space in Midsomer Norton & Radstock between 2001-2011. This figure has been more than accounted for by Polestar, but there may be some further large manufacturing casualties in Midsomer Norton & Radstock. The larger industrial units which remain following closures have generally not attracted occupiers to the area and this has led to some large vacancies, splitting of units or demolition. Conversely, there is a high level of occupation of the smaller light industrial units in the area. Roger Tym also project that Midsomer Norton & Radstock will require a small (2,000m2) increase in office space during the period 2001-2011. On this basis, however, the entire requirement for Midsomer Norton & Radstock could be accommodated at Peasedown St. John. There is clearly a need to focus economic development activity on Midsomer Norton & Radstock in an attempt to stimulate employment. Without intervention, and accepting the Roger Tym projections, the Midsomer Norton & Radstock economy is likely to decline further. A further decline will result in a limit on housing growth and the overall decline of the community.
10.4 Retail The major difficulty in undertaking a review of retail in Midsomer Norton & Radstock is that the proximity of Midsomer Norton and Radstock means that the towns potentially compete for the same trade. Clearly both locations were important centres when the population was less mobile and greater levels of employment were available within the area. Midsomer Norton has
168 Solutions in Regional Development Section 10
Analysis - Midsomer Norton, Radstock, Paulton & Peasedown St. John
now developed into the established District Centre with Radstock providing ancillary services to the local population. Despite its pre-eminent position in the area, Midsomer Norton is not an important retail location. In 2004 the town was ranked the 912th most important retail centre in the UK by Management Horizons10. The same study, perhaps surprisingly estimated that there was surplus expenditure available within the area given the population size but this perhaps under-estimated the impact out-commuting has had on the retail centre. The character of the High Street is cost conscious with a number of smaller independent retailers. Retail rents at £215/m2 are only half of those achieved in Keynsham (a location which Nathaniel Lichfield concluded to have adequate retail provision). Midsomer Norton has however recently gained a number of national retail multiples (Sainsbury, Lidl, Argos and Halfords) and these are important additions if the town is to compete for trade. At present the town is not the shopping location of choice for the majority of residents. In the NEMS Household Survey in 2004, only 21.9% of residents of Midsomer Norton & Radstock visited Midsomer Norton for their non-food shopping. There are two issues which may impact on the ability of Midsomer Norton to gain further retail development along the High Street. The first issue relates to the highly fragmented pattern of land ownership with has arisen over time frustrating attempts to create sufficiently large units/plots for national retailers. The second issue potential issue is the proximity of Radstock. Radstock has a clear town centre in form but less in function and the provision of some retail but the retail performance of the town is poor. With the exception of the co-operative (Radco) there are no significant retailers and the town does not feature within the Management Horizons ranking scheme. Retail rents in the town do not exceed £170/m2 and there are a number of units which are either vacant or where there is a frequent change in occupiers. The town is dominated by Radco, an independent co-operative. Whilst this is a significant store the retail performance of the entire co-operative movement has suffered against competition from the large grocery multiples over recent years and the Radco store has undertaken limited capital investment. With this in mind, the changes within the co-operative movement announced in 2006 that the movement would move away from non-food retail leaves Radco (as an independent co-operative) with an interesting decision on its future development. There is a need to address the issues relating to the function of Radstock town centre before vacant shop units start to impact on the visual character and investment appeal of the town. Any solution must retain some element of local amenity retail but should not undermine the improving position of Midsomer Norton where retail has a greater critical mass. 10.5 Housing It is easy to get the problems of Midsomer Norton & Radstock out of proportion by examining the settlements in isolation. In fact, this is an area with some character and with immediate access to the countryside of North East Somerset. Radstock is only 10 miles from Bath and 17 miles from Bristol. The area offers a high quality of life where homes are somewhat less
10 Nathaniel Lichfield Study for B&NES 2004
169 Solutions in Regional Development Section 10
Analysis - Midsomer Norton, Radstock, Paulton & Peasedown St. John
expensive than Bath. In 2002 the average detached house in Midsomer Norton & Radstock was 51% less expensive than Bath. As a result, and because of the limited housing land available in Bath, the area has come under pressure for further housing development. In fact there are a number of schemes with existing permission and in 2006 the Planning Inspector reluctantly suggested more land be zoned for housing in the South of B&NES because the area was the sequentially the closest place available to Bath and the Authority was in danger of missing its housing targets. The main issue with further housing in Midsomer Norton & Radstock relates to the problem of out-commuting. There remain sites available and with declining household sizes the area will need some further housing development simply to keep the population (and therefore service provision) at the same level. At present, however, for every person who works in Midsomer Norton & Radstock, there is another person who commutes out of the area and with the decline in the printing industry this is likely to get worse. Further commuting should be avoided where possible as whilst Bath is only 10 miles away from Radstock, the road capacity is limited and commuting on the current scale is environmentally damaging and impacts upon the quality of life in the Bath suburbs (see below). A further housing issue faced by the area is the provision of affordable units. Whilst Midsomer Norton & Radstock is the most affordable of all the locations in B&NES, housing remains expensive relative to some of the employment available. The wages which can be sustained by the low margin packaging industry can result in a difficulty in gaining staff. This has resulted in at least one local company being forced to buy housing for its workers who, in some cases, are now Eastern European.
10.6 Transport The transport situation in Midsomer Norton & Radstock is often raised as the key issue for the area. There is no doubt that the relative isolation of the area has restricted economic growth. There is undoubtedly an issue for the area in terms of road linkages to the motorway and this limits the attractiveness of the area in securing new business investment. It is the link to the motorway which is of primary importance. In the current situation, businesses in Norton Radtsock are forced to travel through Bath to gain access to the M4 East and through Bristol in order to access the M5 North or M4 West. The issue is compounded by commercial traffic travelling through B&NES from the South in order to gain access to the same routes. The transport between Midsomer Norton & Radstock and Bath is also frequently raised as an issue particularly for commuters. The situation is, however, currently no worse than the commute into many other cities and peak time congestion covers a relatively short time period. As a result, whilst improvements could be made, they are unlikely to gain funding against other competing schemes. The commuting situation would of course be worsened by more housing locating in Midsomer Norton & Radstock and this further highlights the need for more employment in the area.
170 Solutions in Regional Development Section 10
Analysis - Midsomer Norton, Radstock, Paulton & Peasedown St. John
The commute to Bristol is significantly longer and more difficult than the commute into Bath. This is likely to get worse as any urban extension to Bristol takes place and highlights the pressing need for the completion of a high quality Bristol ring road and associated road improvements to be constructed as the residential population of Bristol is increased. The public transport provision between Midsomer Norton & Radstock and both Bath and Bristol, whilst entirely bus based, is good. The routes themselves however provide little incentive for commuters to favour the bus over the car because there is little dedicated road space or junction priorities for busses and as a result the journey is no faster by bus. There is also limited parking provision close to the bus stops for potential bus commuters.
171 Solutions in Regional Development Section 11
Analysis – Bath Suburbs
11.1 Introduction It is impossible to generalise about the suburbs of Bath since there is a huge variation between the low density and high value housing in locations such as Lansdown or Bathwick and the high density housing of Twerton which is recognised as an area of deprivation. The focus here, however, is to concentrate mainly on those areas of transition between housing and commercial development where changes are most likely to occur. These areas are focused on the radial routes into the City of Bath.
11.2 Summary
Current position Trends and Conclusion Recommendations and key points potential result
The overall environment of Continued economic growth An alternative route to the M4 The Bristol South Ring Road many areas of the Bath and no alternative route to the / M5 is required which can provide a viable suburbs is adversely affected M4 from the South of presents a more attractive alternative if there is by traffic pressure. This is not England will continue to alternative than travelling associated investment in spur simply peak time congestion generate HGV traffic which through Bath. roads and the overall but HGV movements using will be forced into Bath. construction of the ring road the trunk routes which is of sufficient quality. converge on the City Centre.
Businesses operating within There will continue to be a There is a need to migrate There is a need to identify the zones of transition on difficult interface between businesses away from the further out of centre sites radial routes increase traffic businesses, the traffic they radial routes and improve the (Peasedown and Keynsham); generation. There are no generate and the overall levels environment along these to promote these sites; and to alternative locations for these of goods traffic on the radial thoroughfares. use positive and negative businesses. routes of Bath. incentives to encourage further business migration away from radial routes.
The density of housing Further housing provision will An urban extension will The urban extension should be provision is greatest in the further generate demand for require service provision and resisted until the intervention South of Bath and this places services, retail, and public further convenience retail and sites within Bath have been pressure on service provision amenities. not simply residential fully developed and the as well as generating trips into development. This will growth assumptions within the centre of the City. increase the required scale of the RSS have been verified. any such extension.
172
Solutions in Regional Development Section 11
Analysis – Bath Suburbs
11.3 Economy Th e empl oyment opp ortunities for the resid ents of the Bath suburbs are add ressed through the Bath Business Pl an whi ch highligh ts the need for further private sector empl oyment mainly in the service sector which may be stimulated through the provision of more offi ce space withi n the City. In addi tion to this increase in offi ce sector empl oyment withi n the City, there is a need to add ress the pressure on businesses along the radial routes of Bath. Businesses along the Lower and Upp er Bristol Roads operate in a diffi cult environment with li mited land avail abili ty and traffi c congestion. The development of Bath Western Ri verside and other schemes such as Bath Quays will pl ace further pressure on these businesses to the point where their presence in the Ci ty is likely to be unsustainabl e. Th ere is therefore a likelih ood of the di spl acement of these businesses and where possible there is a need to manage the potential migration to alternative sites withi n B&NES. These businesses often provid e a sub-regi onal service and could operate better from a purpose buil t ligh t industrial location. This is an opp ortunity for both Peasedown St. John and Keynsham.
11.4 Retail Th ere is no proposal for further retail developments withi n the Bath suburbs at the current time. It is recognised, however, that the current provision of convenience shopping space withi n Bath is below the level which would be expected in a location of a simil ar size. This situation will be exacerbated by further housing development. Th e under provision will be partly add ressed by the Bath Western Ri versid e (BWR) scheme incorporating a larger Sainsbury store and some further local convenience shoppi ng provision. Further housing provision in the South of Bath and in particular an urban extension is likely to generate a requirement for a further large grocery retail er in the South of the City where the provision is weakest.
11.5 Housing Thi s report has id entified the need for further housing to be provid ed withi n B&NES and the ‘in fill’ of developments within the Ci ty is the most app ropriate method of add ressing this need in the short term. Th e most signifi cant scheme is BWR but there is a proposal for reconfiguring MOD land at Fox Hill . These sites are important if Bath is to develop the housing it requires. Th e changi ng characterDDDDD of the radi alRR RroutesRR into BathAAAAA and the proposals FFFFF relating TTTT Tto transport and empl oyment land useDD are also lik ely RR to generate furtherAA opp ortunities FF for housing TT in locations such as the Lower Bristol Road.
173
Solutions in Regional Development Section 11
Analysis – Bath Suburbs
11.6 Transport Transport is an important issue for the Bath suburbs. Th e funnelling of traffic along the radi al routes into Bath has a major impact on the quality of the environment I residential areas of the city in terms of congestion, noise, poll ution and safety. Thi s is not simply a commuting issue but relates to the commercial traffi c attempting to cross Bath on one of the major trunk routes whi ch converge withi n the Ci ty. Th e traffic is worsened by the businesses whi ch have developed along the radi al routes. This has led to a poor environment being created along locations such as the Lower Bristol Road and London Road in particular. Th e conclusions for the Bath suburbs focus on add ressing thi s issue.
DDDDDDD RRRRRRR AAAAAAA FFFFFFF TTTTTTT
174
Solutions in Regional Development Section 12
Recommendations & Next Steps
12.1 Introduction Th e report has focused on the main settlements in B&NES and cannot examine each vill age or parish indi vid ually. There are, however some issues particularly in terms of commuter housing, service provision and the rural economy whi ch are common to all .
12.2 Summary
Current position Trends and Conclusion Recommendations and key points potential result
Ho u si n g in th e ru ra l a re a s of Hi gh le v e ls of ou t c om m u ti n g Th er e n e ed s t o b e b et t er R es t ri ct th e c re a ti on of fu rt h er B &N E S i s of t en oc c up i ed b y le a d s t o st er i le c om m u n it i es b a la n c e wi t hi n ru ra l lo w d en si t y h ou si n g ou t c om m u t er s . a nd t h e la ck of a we ek d a y c om m u n it i es . d ev e l op me n t wi t hi n th e ru ra l p op u la t i on t o su p p or t a re a s. n ec es s a ry se rv i c es .
Th e d em a nd fo r h ou si n g b y Th e p op u la t i on su pp or t ed b y Th er e i s a n ee d fo r a gr e a t er An y h ou si n g d ev e l o p me n t in c om m u t er s i nt o th e u rb an t h e ru ra l ec on om y c a n n ot p ro v i si on of a ff o r d a b le t h e ru ra l a re a s re q ui re s a fa r a re a s h as in c re a se d th e p ri c in g c om p et e fo r h ou si n g a nd a s a h ou si n g c lo s e l y a ss o c i a t ed h i gh er ra t i o of a ff o r d ab le un it s of ru ra l h ou si n g. re s u lt st ru gg l e s t o fi nd wi t h th e la rg e r em p lo ye r s i n b ut d ev e l op me n t s n ee d t o b e a c c om m o d a ti on c lo s e t o t h ei r t h e ru ra l a re a s. re s t ri c t ed t o th os e a re a s wh er e p la c e of wo r k . t h e p ro v i si on of se r v i c es (p ub li c t ra n sp or t ) i s st ro n ge s t .
A d em o g r a p h i c sh i ft i s Th e t re n d is re s u lt in g in a A c om b i na ti on of h i gh er ou t Ho u si n g d ev e l o p me n t c an n ot re s u lt i n g in lo w e r i n h ab it an t s gr e a t er d em a n d fo r sm a ll e r c om m u ti n g an d a d ec li n in g b e re s t ri c t ed a lt og e t h er . Th er e p er h ou si n g un it . h ou si n g un i ts an d a t re n d th a t p op u la t i on wi ll re s u lt i n th e i s a n ee d fo r hi gh er d en si t y, a lo c a ti on wi th a fi xe d nu mb er c on ti nu ed d ec li n e of ex i st i n g sm a ll e r u n i t a ff o r d ab le of h ou si n g u ni t s wi ll b e fa c ed ru ra l c om m u n i ti es . h ou si n g p ro v i si on in t h e ru ra l wi t h a d ec li n in g p op u la t i on . c om m u n it i es .
Di sa d va nt a ge d gr o u p s h a ve An a ge i n g d em o g r a ph i c an d Th e sm a ll e s t a n d le a st Th e p ro v i si on of a ff o r d ab le re s t ri c t ed a cc es s t o se r v i c es in ou t c om m u t in g wi ll re s u lt i n a a c c es s i b le lo c a l c om m u n i ti es h ou si n g sh ou ld b e li mi t ed t o t h e ru ra l a re a s. re t ra c t i on of p ri va t e se c t or wi l l ex t r em e l y e xp en si ve t o t h e mo s t a cc es s i b le ru ra l se r v i c e p ro v i si on in th e ru ra l su pp or t . c om m u n it i es DDa re a s a nd th e c os Rt R of p ub li c AA FF TT DDDDDDp ro v i si o n w i ll RR RiR nRRc re a se . AAAAAA FFFFFF TTTTTT
12.3 Economy Th ere is a li mited rural economy in B&NES. Th e area is not farmed particularly intensively and the greenbelt has li mited large scale commercial developments. Th e existing rural businesses
175
Solutions in Regional Development Section 12
Recommendations & Next Steps
provid e valuable empl oyment to their communities. There is the opp ortunity to increase the contrib ution of the rural economy through the growth of activities such as farm grocery shops, garden suppli ers, and the provision of leisure based activities but there is a diffi culty in their development taki ng place because of planning restrictions withi n the rural area. Th ere is also a need to improve mobil e and broadband access across the area to improve the prospects for a greater level of home worki ng. At present there is a patchy mobil e telephone signal across the Authority mainly due to the topography.
12.4 Housing Th e attractiveness of many of the rural vill ages withi n B&NES has led to the area becoming a sough t after location for commuters to Bath and Bristol. This has led to a rise in house prices and high levels of out commuting. Whil st it is difficult to compare average house prices, a detached house in the rural areas of B&NES was estimated to cost only 18% less than a house in the City of Bath in 2002 . In common with Midsomer Norton & Radstock, the rural areas recorded one out-commuter for every indi vid ual who worked in the area. Th e B&NES Economic Profil e describes a situation where 8,519 people work withi n the rural areas of the Authority and 8,274 people commute out of the area. Th e high cost of housing and the demand from city resid ents has resulted in a difficulty for the empl oyees of local rural businesses to find accommodation in the area and they in turn are forced to commute. Th ere is therefore a need for some affordabl e housing provision in those settlements whi ch currently have suffi cient critical mass to supp ort local services such as a public transport li nk. Thi s will go some way to add ressing the issue of housing provision for the empl oyees of local businesses. Furthermore, without some increased provision of housing the population will decli ne and pl ace further pressure on local services. Further market housing should be restricted in the rural vill ages since thi s fuels out commuting and provid es little economic or community benefi t. Of all the locations for market housing development, the rural areas are the least sustainabl e of them all because of the requirement to undertake car journeys not simply for work but for shoppi ng and leisure activity as well .
12.5 Transport DDDDDDD RRRRRRR AAAAAAA FFFFFFF TTTTTTT Th e transport issues faced by the rural areas are simil ar to those faced by Mid somer Norton & Radstock. Th e li nks to the motorways are poor and there is a large amount of commercial traffi c funnelled down singl e carriageway high ways. One important issue for the rural communities is also the road safety aspect of the roads in B&NES. Th e pressure on the roads and their characteristics have led to B&NES missing its road safety targets and a number of fatal accidents occurring withi n the Authority.
176 Solutions in Regional Development Section 13
Spatial Interpretation
13.1 Introduction As part of the business planning work for North East Somerset, David Lock & Associates undertook a spatial study of the principal developed settlements. This work examined Keynsham, Midsomer Norton and Radstock. As a result of the view that Paulton and Peasedown St. John could be linked to Midsomer Norton & Radstock for the purposes of function and critical mass, these areas were also examined. There full report ‘B&NES Area Wide Spatial Strategy’ has been completed as a separate document. This section simply summarises some of the findings.
13.2 Spatial Outcomes David Lock & Associates identified a number of sites and interventions from a perspective of capacity. The principal sites are then analysed in terms of development in the next section of this report.
Keynsham In Keynsham, the key issues were the extent to which the urban form could extend beyond the current boundaries of the town. It was recognised that in the current form, there are a number of residents within Keynsham who live a significant distance from the existing centre and that this is a limitation on sustainable development. David Lock & Associates highlighted a number of sites, some of which are already within the Local Plan for development. These included the opportunity to increase housing to the South with some employment capacity in the North. David Lock also identified some capacity for development to the West but recognised that these sites would further close the gap on the important buffer between Bristol and Keynsham. As a result they are not recommendations and are not included in the development analysis in the next section. The sites involved are illustrated in the schematic below:
177
Solutions in Regional Development Section 13
Spatial Interpretation
Development Potential – Keynsham
Source: David Lock & Associates
Gi ven the di stance of the existing urban boundaries from Keynsham centre and the focus of thi s report on the development of the town centre, it was important to id entify the opp ortunities withi n the town itself . Th ese focused on the Ri verside and Town Hall schemes as well as the potential to improve development around the vast car park at Ashton Way. The pl an also id entifies Ch arlton Road and in keeping with the recommendations of thi s report, segments the scheme in such a manner whi ch may suit a mixed use development of offi ces and residential. Thi s is ill ustrated below: DDDDDDD RRRRRRR AAAAAAA FFFFFFF TTTTTTT
178
Solutions in Regional Development Section 13
Spatial Interpretation
Keynsham Town Centre
Source: David Lock & Associates
Midsomer Norton One of the opp ortunities of Midsomer Norton has been id entified as the availabl e development land. The issue is the attractionD of occupiRers rather thanA the land forF development. T Thi s is ill ustrated in the overallDDDDDDD view of the RRR Rtown.RRR Th ere AareAAAAAA substantial areasFFFFFFF of land TTtoTTTT Tthe North of the town (although some of area 1b has already been developed within a new housing scheme). Thi s includes the substantial site at Old Mill s. To the South, there is the opp ortunity to develop further extensions to the urban form although , with simil arities to Keynsham, these areas would be some di stance from the town centre. Sequentially St. Peters Factory (not highligh ted) and the Central Rail way land may off er greater opp ortunities although the latter may only off er lower density opp ortunities to the East as a
179
Solutions in Regional Development Section 13
Spatial Interpretation
result of engi neering and topologi cal issues. The development of some of this land, however, may provid e the opp ortunity to subsidise the development of parkl and in the remainder of the area. Midsomer Norton
Source: David Lock & Associates
Radstock Withi n Radstock a large amount of work has already been compl eted on the likely regeneration of the town centre. Th e analysis of the area ill ustrates the opp ortunity along the rail way land but also id entifi es that thereDDDDDDD is the potential RRRRRRR for a large AAA AAextensionAA to theFFFFFF Ftown centre TTTTTT Tto the North East. Thi s has not been id entified on the recent Local Pl an and as any potential land use would be likely to be residential, any requirement to fully expl ore the potential of thi s area for development is contingent on the attraction of further empl oyment. Th e areas are ill ustrated below:
180
Solutions in Regional Development Section 13
Spatial Interpretation
The Radstock Area
Source: David Lock & Associates
Paulton & Peasedown St. John In ke e p i n g wi t h t he re ma i n d e r of t hi s r e p or t, Da vi d Lo c k & Associates id entifi ed opportunities wi t hi n Pa ul to n & Pe a se d o wn St . J oh n . T h e ma j or si t es i d e nt ified, however, were the existing Ba t h Bu si n es s Pa r k a n d t he s i te va c a te d b y Po l es ta r . Gi ve n t h e ac c es s di ff ic u lt ie s o f Pa u lt o n , t h e a s s u mp t i on i n t h is report has been that a mixed e mp l o y me n t a n d r es i de n ti al s c h e me o n t he si t e wo u l d co n t ai n a greater element of resid ential s p a c e, wh il s t t he Ba t h Bu s in e s s Pa r k i s cl ea rl y i d e nt if ie d a s an important empl oyment site. DDDDDDD RRRRRRR AAAAAAA FFFFFFF TTTTTTT
181 Solutions in Regional Development Section 14
Physical Reconciliation
14.1 Introduction As part of the work in completing the Wider B&NES Business Plan, David Lock & Associates undertook an exercise to examine the spatial characteristics of the major settlements. This exercise, which is outlined in Section 13, and provided in full as a separate report, identified a number of areas where significant differences could be made within each town. Ernst & Young has developed a financial model which examines the major intervention sites and their likely financial viability (not a public document). In undertaking the financial modelling work and determining the conclusions for the area it is important to identify the scale of development which could be undertaken on the main intervention sites and how this relates to the overall requirements of the RSS and the demand projections for the area.
14.2 Intervention sites The principle intervention sites examined by Ernst & Young are as follows: Keynsham ▪ Land to the rear of Somerdale ▪ Broadmead Lane Industrial Estate ▪ Charlton Road ▪ Town Hall ▪ Riverside ▪ South West residential extension ▪ South East residential extension
Midsomer Norton, Radstock, Paulton & Peasedown St. John. ▪ Northern residential extension
▪ Southern residential extension ▪ Railway land ▪ Old Mills ▪ Eastern Radstock residential extension ▪ St. Peters Factory ▪ Bath Business Park ▪ Polestar Site
182
Solutions in Regional Development Section 14
Physical Reconciliation
14.3 Assumptions In developi ng the outputs from the intervention sites the foll owing assumptions were used. Employment Densities Employment Densities Job / m 2
Office 19 Industrial 32 Retail 20 Leisure 90 Source: English Partnerships Employment Densities
Residential Characteristics Characteristics
Average household size (SW) 2.36 Proportion of population economically active 0.67 Source: 2001 Census
Land Use Densities Use Density Density % Dwellings per Hectare (dph)
Office (%) 60% Industrial (%) 50% Retail (%) 80% Leisure (%) 60% Housing High (dph) 70 Housing Medi um(dph) 50 Housing Low (dph)DDDD DDDD RRRRRRRR 35AAAAAA AA FFFFFFFF T TTTTTTT Housing Very Low (dph) 15 Source: Ernst & Young / David Lock & Associates
183
Solutions in Regional Development Section 14
Physical Reconciliation
14.4 Outputs Th e outputs are therefore a simpl e arithmetic calculation developed from site areas and using standard density measures. As an output they should not be seen as a recommendation but simply what may be possibl e by using avail abl e land and maintaining a level of balance between residential development and empl oyment with a land use whi ch fi ts the character of the settlements. Using the proportions above against the intervention sites resulted in the foll owing outputs: Output Table Employment Residential Economically Dwellings Active People People
K e yn s h a m 3 0 3 1 3 7 5 0 2 5 1 3 1 5 8 9 Gr e a te r No r t on 6 6 6 9 7 7 0 0 5 1 5 9 3 2 6 3 Ra d s t oc k
Total 9699 11450 7672 4852
14.5 Reconciliation Thi s work suggests that gi ven the current supply of land it would be possibl e to undertake development in a balanced manner whi ch provid ed empl oyment space for 9,699 peopl e and created 4,852 additional dwelli ngs. Thi s level of housing in the area outside of the City of Bath and the Bristol South East urban extension is signifi cantly high er than the level assumed for B&NES withi n the Regi onal Sp atial Strategy. Th e work carried out by B&NES Council on the Regi onal Spatial Strategy estimates that 1,000 dwelli ngs can be created in Keynsham and a further 900 dwelli ngs can be created in Midsomer Norton & Radstock. Thi s supply sid e analysis demonstrates that there is the potential for greater levels of housing and the empl oyment land is avail abl e to create the jobs whi ch will provid e the balance. In fact on thi s analysis the DDlandDDDDDD uses proposed RRRRRRRR would lead AAAA AAtoAA a reduction FF FFinFFFF out-commuting TTTTTTTT in Keynsham of 518 (current net out-commuting 1,737) and in Midsomer Norton & Radstock of 1,510 (current net out-commuting 6,490) . Thi s is a positive result but of course these empl oyment projections against current levels of demand for empl oyment are not achi evabl e. Si mply because the land can be all ocated for empl oyment and made avail abl e does not in itself , of course, generate empl oyment.
184
Solutions in Regional Development Section 14
Physical Reconciliation
In their 2004 report for B&NES, Roger Tym estimated likely future empl oyment space demand11 . Th eir conclusions are shown below:
Employment and Floorspace Demand Forecast Sectors Ch ange 2001 -11 jobs ‘000
Bath Rural B&NES B&NES Radstock Keynsham
Employee Jobs Industrial Sector -500 -100 -400 -300 -1,200 All offi ce Sectors 900 0 100 200 1,200 Non Business Space Sectors 3500 300 200 600 4,600 All Sectors 3,900 200 -100 500 4,600
Net Floorspace Change
(square meters) Industrial -17 ,500 -3,500 -14 ,000 -10 ,500 -42 ,000 Offices 18 ,000 0 2,000 4,000 24 ,000 Source: Business Location Requirements, Roger Tym & Partners
Th e Ernst & Young / David Lock & Associates supply sid e analysis is set out on a comparabl e basis below:
DDDDDDD RRRRRRR AAAAAAA FFFFFFF T TTTTTTT
11 Business Location Requirements
185
Solutions in Regional Development Section 14
Physical Reconciliation
Employment and Floorspace Supply Keynsham ‘Greater Norton Radstock ’
Net Floorspace Change (square meters) Industrial 63 ,500 119 ,100 Offices 13 ,800 52 ,950
Employee Jobs Industrial Sector 1,984 3,722 All offi ce Sectors 726 2,787 Non Business Space Sectors 320 160 All Sectors 3,031 6,669 Source: Ernst & Young Analysis
Cl early on the evid ence of the Roger Ty m study, the levels of potential demand for office space and industrial space are hugely optimistic. On the basis of the Roger Tym Study empl oyment in Keynsham and Mid somer Norton & Radstock is essentially neutral and on thi s basis, gi ven the current patterns of out-commuting, no further housing development would be permitted in Keynsham or Mid somer Norton & Radstock. Th e counter-balance to the Roger Tym analysis is the RSS projection. Al though the reports cover diff erent time periods, the RSS predi cts empl oyment growth in B&NES of 16 -20 ,000 . Ernst & Young has already commented on the aggressive basis of the calculations for this job growth, but it is thi s level of empl oyment growth which has resulted in the additional predi cted demand for housing. Th e RSS has stated that empl oyment growth is most likely in the SSCT s and thi s is accepted, but in the case of Bath it seems unlikely that new built space of between 180 ,000 -220 ,000m 2 will be developed to accommodate the predi cted level of empl oyment for the City. If Keynsham and Mid somer Norton & Radstock can be promoted to fulfil some elements of the demand created by the projected economic growth of the Regi on and if some migration of business away from Bath can be achieved (especially a large scale publi c sector empl oyer), it is possible that Keynsham and Midsomer Norton & Radstock will begi n to secure their share of the eventual economic growth in the area. Thi s will also all ow the development of the area to supp ort the sustainabiliDDDDDDD ty priorities R RofRRRRR the RSS and AAAA AreduceAA out-commuting. FFFFFFF T TTTTTTT On the supply sid e analysis Keynsham and Mid somer Norton & Radstock can accommodate about 50% of the empl oyment growth suggested for B&NES. Gi ven that there has been little development of sites in Keynsham and Mid somer Norton & Radstock and there has been little promotion of the area, it is impossibl e to make predi ctions about their empl oyment prospects. It is therefore recommended that the empl oyment sites in the
186
Solutions in Regional Development Section 14
Physical Reconciliation
area retain their pl anning status and are actively promoted and supp orted by B&NES to both developers and occupiers.
14.6 Conclusion Th e potential development of further housing in Mid somer Norton & Radstock and Keynsham (whi ch has not already been all ocated) should be delayed as far as possibl e until the second period of the RSS when the ability of the area to generate empl oyment will have been accurately assessed. During the next ten years current consents, windf all sites and Bath Western Ri versid e will all ow housing compl etions to accelerate in B&NES. At the end of this ten year period the renewed focus of the development of empl oyment in Keynsham and Mid somer Norton & Radstock combi ned with the actual levels of economic growth experienced will determine whether further housing will be required in either Mid somer Norton & Radstock; the Southern Bath urban extension; or potentially both.
DDDDDDD RRRRRRR AAAAAAA FFFFFFF TTTTTTT
187 Solutions in Regional Development Section 15
Conclusions
15.1 Introduction The summary schedules provided in the analysis sections (Sections 9-12) set out a summary of the key findings, the trends, the conclusions and the recommendations for the broad locations within B&NES. The conclusions which were identified for these locations are set out in more detail below.
15.2 Regional Spatial Strategy This Business Plan provides a solution in keeping with the principles of the RSS although the growth projections used within the document appear to be extremely aggressive and there is no clear calculation provided which translates the economic growth forecasts into housing need. With this in mind, there appears to be no immediate requirement for Bath to plan to develop into the greenbelt and there are a number of other development opportunities which can take place prior to any requirement to develop the greenbelt. By undertaking development in this manner, it is hoped to preserve the boundary of the greenbelt until the validity of the aggressive RSS growth forecasts are clearer. If the growth forecasts do appear to have validity, work undertaken now on employment generation within ‘Greater Norton Radstock’ may allow this area of the Authority to make a case for a higher level of sustainable residential growth rather than undertaking more development in the greenbelt.
15.3 Keynsham The vision is for Keynsham to be developed into an aspirational residential town. As a well defined settlement between the growing Cities of Bristol and Bath, Keynsham will continue to serve a function as a commuter town but there are sufficient opportunities to allocate and redevelop employment land to ensure that any further residential development can be balanced with employment growth. It is important to ensure that Keynsham reinforces its current employment base as part of this strategy. The town has a strong element of out-commuting; and it is the ageing population which currently supports the High Street. Without further employment opportunity within the town there is a risk that the vibrancy of the centre will diminish as the demographic shifts. Keynsham can present a strong message to prospective employers with the combination of the geographic location; the proximity to the motorway; and the large residential population which currently out-commutes. This needs to be presented proactively to businesses at the same time as additional employment sites are identified. In addition to the provision of new employment sites, the employment created by Cadbury is important to the town. There is a need to better engage with Cadbury at a number of levels to support and influence their activity within B&NES. The position of the town between Bath and Bristol also results in the retail function of Keynsham being forced to compete with the larger conurbations. As a result it is important that
188
Solutions in Regional Development Section 15
Conclusions
Keynsham remains extremely accessibl e for shoppi ng visits with cheap and availabl e car parki ng and retains its independent and differentiated off er. There is the opp ortunity to further diff erentiate the offer by increasing the prominence of the Fair Trade status and the farmers market. With thi s in mind, the main priority in the development of Keynsham must be a focus on the town centre. Th e decayi ng li near High Street currently has a strongly detrimental impact on the overall perception of the town. At the centre of thi s High Street is the unattractive Town Hall development whi ch includes a parade of shops, a library, offi ces and a car park. Thi s development is owned by B&NES and the majority of leases on the facili ty are nearing expiry. Th ere is a tremendous opp ortunity to compl etely remodel the offi ce and retail content in a more attractive manner. Withi n any pl anning gain contrib utions gained from the Town Hall redevelopment there may be an opp ortunity to reduce the impact of traffi c on the High Street and remodel the streetscape with pl anting and road calming measures. It is also suggested that there is a common bus terminus withi n the town whi ch could be located along Ashton Way. As part of the plans for the town centre, the Ch arlton Road site is being marketed by B&NES as a location for a grocery multipl e development. Thi s Business Pl an recognises that there is some leakage of retail expenditure from the town but the development of a large food store in Ch arlton Road is not seen as off ering anythi ng to encourage further footfall along the High Street. The Town Hall re-development and the existing Somerfi eld store off er the best potential for an improved foodstore off er. It is proposed that Charlton Road is redeveloped for a mix of offi ce and resid ential bringi ng more vib rancy into the town centre. Fi nally, the southern end of the town centre is dominated by the Ri verside office development whi ch is partially occupied by B&NES and partially vacant. B&NES has an aspi ration to vacate these offices as part of their offi ce rationali sation. Such a move will all ow a redevelopment of the offi ces. Th eir configuration favour a mix of commercial and resid ential space and the commercial space will be important in continuing to generate weekd ay footfall for the town centre. Outsid e of the town centre there are some further opp ortunities to increase the provision of housing and create empl oyment opp ortunities. These essentially create a balance between housing growth and empl oyment and preserve the overall character of the town. Most importantly, the greenbelt between the town and both Bristol and Saltford should be preserved. Avail able opp ortunities are therefore essentially empl oyment land to the North of the rail way li ne and resid ential opp ortunities to the South of the town. DDDDDDD RRRRRRR AAAAAAA FFFFFFF TTTTTTT 15.4 Midsomer Norton & Radstock Midsomer Norton and Radstock are strongly developed communities in the south of the Authority but suff er from a combi nation of low skill levels; low average wages; and out- commuting. Th e key to breaki ng thi s cycle of relatively poor economic performance is to attract greater levels of empl oyment with a wid er di versity of job opportunities. In fact in the longer
189
Solutions in Regional Development Section 15
Conclusions
term, current planning policy will dictate that without greater levels of empl oyment, further opp ortunities for housing development will be restricted. With restricted housing, gi ven the shift to small er households, the area would then suff er a decrease in population with a resultant spi ral of social and economic decli ne for the remaining community. As a result, Midsomer Norton & Radstock must be recognised as the economic priority area of the Local Authority area and the key issue is the attraction of more empl oyers to ensure that the communities continue to thrive and gain greater opp ortunities. One of the difficulties, however, in add ressing the needs of Midsomer Norton, Radstock and the associated settlements is that on a regi onal scale, each of the settlements are relatively insignifi cant. Thi s report therefore considers a broader definition of Mid somer Norton & Radstock and suggests that, at least presentationally, better critical mass and recognistion is gained from considering a combi nation of Midsomer Norton, Paulton, Peasedown St. John and Radstock. By consid ering the area in thi s manner, there is an opportunity to reach a scale whi ch is consid ered important in establi shi ng sub-regi onal priorities but there is also an opportunity to focus specifi c functions across a relatively small geographi c area whereas without such a functional id entity, competition between settlements in close proximity may undermine overall success. On this basis, Mid somer Norton has establi shed itself as the clear Di strict Centre and in recent years has attracted a number of National multipl e retailers. With more supp ort for consolidation of ownership s on the High Street, some minor publi c realm investment and a clear focus to reinforce retail withi n Mid somer Norton there is the opp ortunity for further improvement. Paulton has become an increasingly residential vill age and its restricted access is likely to reinforce thi s classification. The proximity of Paulton to Midsomer Norton and the Tesco store at Old Mill s restricts the attractiveness of the village to other retailers, but the former Polestar site and the retention of the hospital (i n favour of Keynsham) provid es some empl oyment opp ortunities. Th e connections of Paulton and the configuration of the Polestar site mean that future empl oyment opportunities can be achieved but will be relatively li mited in scale. Peasedown St. John can become an important empl oyment generator for the settlements. Its relative proximity to Bath and the accepted brand name of ‘Bath Business Park’ has begun to result in this location drawing interest from Bath where empl oyment sites are li mited. The current developers are confid ent of securing a number of signifi cant pre-lets in the next few months (at June 2006) as well as the likelih ood that they will develop some speculative units. Th ere is an opp ortunity for B&NES to pro-actively supp ort thi s opp ortunity through its planning and economic developmentDDDDDD departments. RRRRRR Thi s may AAA AAbegiA n to stretch FFFFFF the economic TTTTTT success of the Authority to the South.DD RR AA FF TT It is more diffi cult to id entify a clear id entity and sustainabl e future for Radstock despite its position as a former lead settlement withi n the area. The pre-eminence and establi shed form of the Midsomer Norton High Street and its retail provision is an important economic centre and any chall enge from Radstock will di minish the overall impact for the whole Midsomer Norton & Radstock area. Radstock has a need for local retail provision but struggl es to supp ort the
190
Solutions in Regional Development Section 15
Conclusions
wid er number of units currently provid ed. If it were not for the large Co-operative presence the centre would contain little more than a local community convenience retail off er. Radstock does have a number of strengths although these are currently somewhat di sjointed. Th e attractiveness of the centre; the mining heritage museum; the coll ege; convergence of important routes; strength of the local community; amenity space; and the access to the surroundi ng countrysid e through footpaths and cycle paths are all important. Th ere is also a recognised arts group within the town. Th e strengthening of the town centre is likely to be underpi nned by protecting local retail services as well as the provision of access to local services. Th ere is the opp ortunity for Radstock to build on its strengths by unifyi ng a number of the current features withi n a fl agship project for B&NES. One possibl e solution would be to focus the sustainability agenda of B&NES on Radstock with a National exempl ar project backed by the community and the college. One important but perhaps overlooked particip ant in any such scheme could be the Co-operative Society. At the heart of the Co-operative Society’s beli efs are the needs to serve the community and trade ethically . Radco have indicated their willi ngness to become more engaged in any strategy for the town and gi ven their dominance and land ownership this is essential for the success of any vision for Radstock.
15.5 Rural Areas Th e main conclusion in respect of the rural areas of B&NES is to restrict further development. Th e entire character of B&NES is determined by the relationship between the towns, villages and countrysid e. As pressure on land increases, there is a need to consider sustainability of development. Rural development is the least sustainabl e of all the options in B&NES. Whilst in some cases rural settlements may be closer to Bath or Bristol than alternative sites in Mid somer Norton & Radstock, the nature of rural settlements is that they are dependent on car journeys not simply for commuting but also for gaining access to local services and leisure activities. Th ere is also the greater diffi culty for B&NES in the provision of adequate services to these rural settlements. One clear conclusion, however, is that there is some need for the provision of some housing. Without some residential development these communities will decli ne in population as household s get small er. Any decli ne in population will cause the existing li mited service provision to di minish further. Th e report has also already id entifi ed the clear aff ordability issues in the rural areas andDDDD DtheDD large scale RRR RRout-commuting.RR AAAAAAA FFFFFFF TTTTTTT Th e conclusion, therefore, is that there is a need for li mited housing development in some of the rural vill ages. Every eff ort is needed to ensure that this is housing for the community and not rural executive housing to generate more out-commuting. In those villages where there is publi c transport provision, it is proposed that the level of aff ordabl e housing sough t should be greater level than the average ratio for the Authority.
191
Solutions in Regional Development Section 15
Conclusions
Th ere is also the likelih ood that the proposed urban extension for Bristol will encroach into the rural vill ages towards the West of B&NES. Th e need for such an urban extension will be determined by the vision for the Greater Bristol area but any such urban extension will require the improvement of transport li nks (see below) because further pressure and congestion on the A37 into Bristol is likely to increase the isolation of Mid somer Norton & Radstock and also, potentially, di spl ace HGV traffic whi ch may then seek to travel through Bath.
15.6 Bath Suburbs Th e main issues for the suburbs of Bath relate to the intensity of land use and transport pressure along the major radial routes. This creates an unpl easant environment along most of the major corrid ors into Bath (Upp er and particularly Lower Bristol Road; Wellsway; and London Road) . Th e probl em of HGV traffic using the trunk routes is exacerbated by the empl oyment uses along these routes creating their own commercial traffic movements. Th ere is a need to encourage ligh t manufacturing and other workshop based commercial activity to move away from the centre of Bath in order to reduce pressure on these routes. If such an app roach is to be undertaken, there must be a suitable alternative. Alternative sites do exist in Peasedown and Keynsham and a more proactive app roach is needed to present these opp ortunities to businesses. In the future any development in the South of Bath – at Foxhill or in a southern urban extension must also have some empl oyment site provision. As resid ential density increases in the South of the Ci ty there will also be the requirement to create a small convenience retail centre. Th e solutions for the Bath suburbs and indeed much of the Authority are intrinsically li nked to the provision of transport. Thi s is consid ered below.
15.7 Transport Th ere is no doubt that the economic fortunes of Mid somer Norton & Radstock have been hampered by poor transport li nks. Si mil arly the convergence of major routes in Bath has resulted in a deteriorating living environment for some of the Bath suburban area. Th ere is also an important road safety aspect for the rural villages where road safety targets have been missed. In most Ci ties a ring road help s solve the probl ems of traffic convergence and provid es better accessed sites for businessesDDDD whi ch wereRRRR hi storically AAAA located on radiFFFF al routes. ATTTT ring road cannot be provid ed DinDD Bath for reasons RRR of cost, topologyAAA and the FFsurroundiF ngT Tenvironment.T Th e main issue for B&NES however is not road access from outlyi ng areas into Bath; the most important issue relates to access to the motorway network. Mid somer Norton & Radstock is hampered in attracting businesses because of the time taken to reach the motorway. Furthermore the roads withi n B&NES are badly aff ected by HGV s moving through the Authority to reach / leave the M4 at junction 18. One previously examined pl an was to create a better li nk between
192
Solutions in Regional Development Section 15
Conclusions
A36/A46 and whil st thi s would help the congestion situation within the City of Bath it would not necessarily help improve journey times or therefore the accessibility of Mid somer Norton & Radstock. It is also likely to remain politically impossible to achi eve. Th ere is an alternative. The Regi onal Spatial Strategy makes a strong case for the need for improved infrastructure if the growth of the sub-regi on is to be achi eved. Th e road scheme whi ch has broadest agreement withi n the sub-regi on is the compl etion of the Bristol ring road (to the South) . Th e compl etion of thi s ring road to a high standard will be important to all ow the increase in residential capacity in the Bristol urban extension. Th ere is an opp ortunity through this plan for B&NES to fully supp ort the Bristol ring road if the scheme includes improved li nks to the south of the B&NES Authority creating faster motorway access for Mid somer Norton & Radstock whil st at the same time removing some HGV pressure on Bath. Withi n the Authority there is some di squiet at the length of time taken to make commuter journeys into Bath. Thi s issue appears to have gained undue prominence. The commuter pressure on the roads is no more signifi cant than in other locations and indeed the ‘rush hour’ fall s over a fairly narrow period. As such, whil st commuter traffic is inconvenient, at the current level, schemes to all eviate the probl em are unlikely to gain Central Government supp ort. Th ere is, however, a need to improve some of the commuter bus routes. At present the lack of dedi cated lanes or priorities for busses results in commuter bus journeys taki ng at least as long as a simil ar car journey. Thi s provid es no incentive for car users to catch the bus. Future road improvements need to build in bus lanes and bus priority schemes for use at peak times where space can be made availabl e. A second commuter bus improvement would be better parki ng provision at the point of bus departure (within Radstock or Mid somer Norton). These schemes would all ow the bus to present a genuine alternative to car borne commuter journeys.
DDDDDDD RRRRRRR AAAAAAA FFFFFFF TTTTTTT
193 Solutions in Regional Development Section 16
Links to the Bath Business Plan
16.1 Introduction The Bath Business Plan was completed in January 2006. Since the completion of the work, the Planning Inspector has made detailed comments upon the Bath Local Plan and the Regional Assembly has published a draft Regional Spatial Strategy for comment. In many ways these, documents have reinforced the findings of Bath Business Plan with a focus upon the economic development of the urban area particularly through office development; a need to focus retail development on the existing spine of the City of Bath; and a need for balance between residential growth and employment space. It was always the intention of B&NES Council to complete a Business Plan for the wider B&NES Area once the work in Bath was complete. It is now necessary to consider the outcomes of the two documents.
16.2 Key Findings of the Bath Business Plan The physical recommendations from the Bath Business Plan are set out below: � Maintain the balance between work, live and visit throughout the delivery of the Business Plan and ensure that developers are unable to simply deliver the easy development opportunities at the expense of the wider Vision. � Undertake a high density of housing development on Bath Western Riverside albeit in keeping with design and transport considerations. � Create a mixed use office quarter close to the City Centre and encourage more private sector employment. � Engage with the Universities to maximise opportunities arising from: corporate research clients of the university; academic conferences; spin out research; and the numbers of students who graduate but currently leave the City. � Ensure that the Southgate scheme is successfully completed and plan for sequential retail expansion post 2010. � Invest in complimentary tourist activities and allow expansion of the hotel offer.
� Develop the ‘iconic arts building’ as a small mixed use convention centre / festival focal point allowing expansion of business tourism. � Identify and deliver some quick wins.
In addition, the Bath Business Plan identified the need to undertake greater levels of work in the following areas: ▪ Marketing – the overall marketing rationale, message and promotionally strategy for the City.
194
Solutions in Regional Development Section 16
Links to the Bath Business Plan
▪ External relations – the need for B&NES to be more proactive in their app roach to external bodi es and develop a relationship with the largest empl oyers withi n the Ci ty. ▪ Fi nancial Strategy & Reinvestment – the need for B&NES to identify a mechanism to reinvest property income in the publi c realm and therefore to fi rst increase and then maintain the quality of the visitor experience. ▪ Undertake a more aggressive transport strategy for the Ci ty Centre with a greater provision of park & rid e facili ties and a positive and negative incentive to their use. ▪ Develop a property development and planning app roach whi ch encourages the private sector but at the same time ensures that B&NES is able to gain and make best use of overage created withi n development schemes.
16.3 Links Th e conclusions of the Wider B&NES study are consistent with the fi ndi ngs of the Bath Business Pl an. Th e theme of balanced development has been consistently appli ed across the Authority. There is a need to balance empl oyment creation with the provision of housing. It is also recognised that economic growth can be most easily achi eved in Bath and in order to meet the housing demands of empl oyees there is a need to undertake substantial development in Bath. Much of the housing requirement of the next few years can be achieved at Bath Western Ri versid e and further sites withi n the urban form such as MOD Fox Hill . Th e Bath Business Pl an identifi ed the importance of public sector empl oyment to the Ci ty and the need to create a predominantly private sector service sector empl oyment zone withi n the Ci ty Centre. Thi s app roach could also lead to a poli cy to attempt to attract further publi c sector empl oyment to the South of B&NES and therefore better spread the empl oyment opp ortunities for all . Th e Universities remain key contrib utors to the economic wealth of the Authority. Thi s is probably a Bath centric opportunity especially now that it app ears that any prospect of Bath Spa University expandi ng into Keynsham is unlikely . Nevertheless, the entire Authority can benefi t from the economic growth that the Universities could generate for the City of Bath. From a retail and visit perspective, the Bath Business Pl an strongly supp orts the development of the Southgate scheme to revitali se the South of Bath Ci ty Centre and all ow Bath to continue to compete with Bristol DDasD a retail centre RRR from across AtheAA West of Engl FFF and. Thi s remainsTTT extremely important and thereD DareDD no competing RRRR interests whiAAAA ch have been FidFFF entified withiTTTTn B&NES . Th e Di strict Centres of Keynsham and Mid somer Norton undertake a diff erent retail function. Th e Bath Business Pl an discussed the opp ortunities for improving the tourism offer for the City and the opp ortunity to position Bath as a centre for a wid er area encompassing Stonehenge, Ch edd ar, Gl astonbury and Well s. Such an approach would allow B&NES to better promote the
195
Solutions in Regional Development Section 16
Links to the Bath Business Plan
South of the Authority as a centre for tourism although at present the offer is extremely li mited and needs to be better developed and articulated. A consistent fi ndi ng across both studi es has been the lack of a proactive approach to deali ng with large empl oyers and other important private sector organisations. B&NES has few relationships with these organisations irrespective of their location withi n the Authority. Thi s li mits the ability of the Authority to foresee or infl uence major areas of change. Th e fi nancial and development vehi cle recommendations of the Bath Business Plan are less relevant to the wider study. In general, the Wider B&NES study has concentrated on intervention sites whi ch are both vacant and outsid e Council ownership . The only exception to this is the Town Hall site withi n Keynsham. The redevelopment of thi s site is important and will need careful appraisal and pl anning especially as the potential to redevelop the adjacent Ri verside may need to be financially li nked to ensure that the redevelopment of the whole area is viabl e. Fi nally the transport issues for Bath are supp orted by recommendations relating to the increase of commuter ‘park & rid e’ provision at the point of departure and the need to build in greater priorities for busses in road schemes to increase the attractiveness of the publi c transport alternatives.
16.4 Conclusion Th e fi ndings of the Bath Business Pl an and the Wider B&NES Business Pl an are not only consistent but in some cases the recommendations made in the Wid er B&NES study reinforce existing proposals in the Bath Business Plan. As a result, it is possible to set some priority recommendations for the entire Authority and these are provid ed in the next Section.
DDDDDDD RRRRRRR AAAAAAA FFFFFFF TTTTTTT
196 Solutions in Regional Development Section 17
Recommendations & Next Steps
17.1 Core Recommendations The Business Plan makes a number of practical and physical recommendations as a result of the Wider B&NES Business Plan. These are set out below. As a result of considering the Bath Business Plan alongside this document, however, Ernst & Young recommend that priority is given to four key projects. These four projects are considered to be equally important.
▪ Ensure that the entire Bath Western Riverside (BWR) scheme is completed effectively and within the next ten years. The BWR scheme represents the largest contribution to the provision of housing, and especially affordable housing, within B&NES. The provision of affordable housing in particular is a significant issue for the Authority. B&NES needs to meet its housing targets within the next ten years to reduce the need to make any immediate decision on developing into the greenbelt. Any change in the economic landscape during the next ten years may then reduce the need for additional housing and alleviate the pressure to develop into the greenbelt.
▪ Ensure that the Southgate scheme is completed as quickly as possible and the migration of retailers with the City is managed proactively. Much of the wealth creation in Bath is based on the visitor economy. This is not simply the tourist visitor economy but also wealth generated from pure retail visits. As consumer tastes change, the retail experience is an increasingly important aspect of any visit. The Southgate redevelopment allows Bath to regenerate a particularly unattractive area of the City and create modern retail units which will not only improve multiple retailer provision but will also allow more independent or higher value retailers to trade at the Northern end of the retail spine. The development is required urgently to help arrest the decline in visitor numbers but also to preserve Bath’s position as a retail destination of choice in the sub-region against the soon to be completed Bristol Broadmead scheme.
▪ Complete an attractive retail redevelopment of the Town Hall site in Keynsham. Keynsham has an opportunity to become recognised as a high quality residential location but at present the town centre is unattractive and this impacts on the overall perception of the town. In the coming years the demographic of Keynsham will shift and this combined with the growth of Bristol (and Bath) will create an opportunity to increase the wealth of Keynsham. The town could benefit from this increase in wealth, capturing it within by offering distinctive and attractive retail; or it could leak away to Longfield Green and Bristol. The latter would eventually lead to Keynsham becoming more indistinct within suburban Bristol.
197
Solutions in Regional Development Section 17
Recommendations & Next Steps
▪ Undertake more proactive work and place a focus on generating the employment provision within Midsomer Norton & Radstock. Greater wealth generation is required in the south of the Authority. Without a focus on greater empl oyment opp ortunities the risk is that there will be increased out-commuting, less planning acceptance for new housing, a decli ning population and di minishi ng supp ort for retail or community facilities.
17.2 Practical Recommendations Th e longer li st of recommendations specifi cally arising from the Wider B&NES Business Pl an is set out below. The practical recommendations focus specifi cally on B&NES poli cy.
B&NES Wide
▪ Balance the provision of employment space with residential development
Across the wid er B&NES area there is a need to balance any housing development with new empl oyment opp ortunities. Thi s is particularly important outside of the Ci ty of Bath because of the current quantity of out-commuting from many of these settlements. Further out-commuting will not only generate additional vehi cle movements on roads congested at peak times but it also has a negative impact on local High Streets with little vib rancy in the town centres during weekd ays.
▪ Concentrate housing development within existing settlement boundaries in the first half of the RSS period Th e aggressive growth projections of the RSS and the unclear statistical calculation withi n the document li nki ng economic growth to housing projections means that the current housing estimates may be too high . Thi s document takes a view that development into the greenbelt should only be undertaken DDasDDDD Da last resort RandRRRRRR as a result AAitAAA AAis recommended FFFFFFF that housing TTTTTTT development continues withi n settlement boundaries for the first ten years of the RSS. During thi s fi rst ten year period, a review of economic performance against the projections withi n the RSS will all ow an assessment of the need to develop into the greenbelt in the period 2016 onwards.
198
Solutions in Regional Development Section 17
Recommendations & Next Steps
▪ There is a need for a more proactive interface with the private sector or major employers Th ere is relatively little di alogue between the Council and the private sector companies withi n the Local Authority. Wh ere thi s dialogue does take pl ace, it tends to be li mited to the company contacts within the B&NES area. Th ere is virtually no di alogue with the Head Offi ce of these organisations. For instance, in the case of Cadb ury, there is a need for B&NES to have a relationship with the Company at a local level; with the responsible Strategi c Business Unit; and with the Estates Department. Thi s is also an opportunity to engage more closely with private sector developers in order to bring forward the app ropriate schemes for empl oyment use.
▪ There is an opportunity for greater economic promotion At present B&NES Council undertakes little work in promoting the area to prospective investors. There is an opportunity to undertake more work with the key intermedi aries such as SWRDA. Th ere is also li mited work undertaken in promoting empl oyment sites to prospective empl oyers. Th e position of Keynsham on the Bristol ring road between Bath and Bristol with reasonabl e access to the M32 provid es an opp ortunity to present Keynsham as a natural location for sub-regi onal businesses. Si mil arly the brandi ng of the Bath Business Park and its relative proximity for the City can be promoted.
▪ There is a need for an increased focus on the areas outside Bath In recent years there have been a large number of compl ex development projects withi n the City of Bath which have required the focus of B&NES Council . Thi s report id entifi es some clear priorities outsid e of the Ci ty of Bath and as a result it is recommended that an increased focus of the work undertaken by Economic Development, Major Projects and Property Services Departments of B&NES is placed upon Mid somer Norton & Radstock, Keynsham and the wid er B&NES area. DDDD RRRR AAAA FFFF TTTT ▪ Balance theDD DeconomicD needs RRRR of the town centresAAAA with theFF FbenefitF of co-locatingTTTT Council staff. At present, B&NES is examining the opp ortunity to co-locate all B&NES Council staff withi n a singl e offi ce development withi n the City of Bath. Thi s will have some undoubted benefits in terms of management of Council work. Thi s will however result
199
Solutions in Regional Development Section 17
Recommendations & Next Steps
in the loss of Council empl oyment from the Keynsham and Mid somer Norton High Streets. Thi s report has id entified the price conscious nature of these High Streets and how it will be essential to maintain empl oyment provision in the towns in order to ensure that the weekd ay footfall is suffi cient to supp ort the existing retail ers. Ernst & Young recommends that the Council does not reduce the level of staff withi n Ri verside until an alternative use is contractually certain and that the Council does not depart the Ri verside during the period whil st the Town Hall is being redeveloped. Ernst & Young also recommends that the Council remains in the Holli es withi n Midsomer Norton both to continue the supp ort of the High Street but also to retain a clear focus on the economic development of Mid somer Norton & Radstock.
▪ Fully support the Bristol ring road extension and press for better links into the scheme from B&NES Th e RSS clearly states that expansion in the provision of housing will require infrastructure improvements. One of the primary sub-regi onal pi eces of infrastructure is the Bristol Ri ng Road. If the Bristol Ri ng Road is compl eted to a high standard and the work incorporates improvements to spurs such as the A37 , there is an opp ortunity to provid e alternative trunk road access from the South coast to the M5/M4 and di vert some traffi c from crossing the City of Bath. Such a scheme would also present an alternative and faster access to the motorway for the Midsomer Norton & Radstock area.
Keynsham Specific ▪ Focus on the town centre
Th e current High Street developments in Keynsham have a detrimental impact on the impression created by the overall town. If Keynsham is to attract more businesses and become an aspi rational resid ential location between Bath and Bristol, redevelopment of the town centreDDDD is a priority. R RRR AAAA FFFF TTTT DDDD RRRR AAAA FFFF TTTT ▪ Maintain a balance between residential development and employment Th ere is a signifi cant amount of out-commuting from Keynsham but the High Street is supp orted during weekdays by the high proportion of retired residents withi n the town. As the demographi c shifts it will be important to create more empl oyment opp ortunities withi n the town in order to maintain the vibrancy of the High Street.
200
Solutions in Regional Development Section 17
Recommendations & Next Steps
Any further housing developments will also need to be supp orted by an increase in empl oyment opp ortunities to li mit the need for further out-commuting.
▪ Support the average housing affordability ratio of B&NES within Keynsham Housing aff ordabili ty is an issue across B&NES. In Keynsham house prices are infl ated by the quality of the schooli ng provision. Th ere is a need for any housing development in Keynsham to incorporate the provision of aff ordabl e units set by B&NES.
▪ Ensure that retail in Keynsham remains easy to visit Th e position of Keynsham between Bath and Bristol and the out of town retail and leisure development at Longwell Green results in strong competition for retailers in Keynsham High Street. The di stance between the edges of resid ential development in Keynsham and the town centre also results in a large number of residents using their cars for shoppi ng trips. Th e result is a need for Keynsham to be convenient and inexpensive for car users or the High Street will increasingly lose out to rival centres. As a result Keynsham should retain suffi cient car parking to meet demand and maintain a low chargi ng structure.
▪ Continue to support an independent retail offer in the town Th e competition faced by retailers in Keynsham means that the retail off er must be sligh tly diff erent to competing centres. Th e traditional independent retail off er includi ng butchers, bakers and greengrocers combi ned with the Fair Trade status and the establi shi ng Farmer’s Market needs to be encouraged and preserved with future retail developments providi ng relatively small retail units for independent traders or small er retail chains. Th e Keynsham retail offer will need to be predominantly mainstream, but with the encouragement of suffi cient high quality local food stores to provid e some element of diff erentiation from the Bristol local centres.
▪ Seek improvementsDDDD in shop frontagesRRRR AAAA FFFF TTTT Th e overallD DimpressionDD of theRRRR town can beAAAA improved by FtheFFF recommended TTTT redevelopment of the Town Hall and Ri verside. Thi s will have an immedi ate impact on the town although many of the remaining shop frontages, especially of the small er independent retail ers, are also in need of repair and repl acement. Th ere is an opp ortunity for the Council to set aside a small fund to assist the independent retail ers (d esignated by status as a small business) to improve their shop
201
Solutions in Regional Development Section 17
Recommendations & Next Steps
frontages through a grant contrib ution. Any such scheme would be de minimis for state aid purposes.
▪ Promote Keynsham as the location for sub-regional businesses At present the empl oyment in Keynsham is somewhat hidd en away in areas such as Pi xash Lane and Broadmead Lane Industrial Estates and the large presence of Cadb ury. Furthermore there are no obvious site opp ortunities for business. As a result the opp ortunities offered by Keynsham for businesses have not resulted in new empl oyment. In fact, Keynsham could provid e empl oyers with a di stinctive location, 15 minutes from the M32 at a lower rent than many areas of Bath and Bristol and with a resid ent population which is currently forced to out-commute. With greater empl oyment site opp ortunities and the promotion of Keynsham as an id eal location for sub-regi onal business, the town has tremendous potential for empl oyment growth.
Midsomer Norton & Radstock Specific ▪ For promotional purposes consider an area of ‘Greater Norton Radstock’ At present the settlements of Mid somer Norton and Radstock are consid ered relatively small and insignifi cant by policy makers at a regi onal level. As a result the area is gi ven a low priority by organisations such as the South West Regi onal Development Ag ency and the future role of the area is restricted in strategi es such as the Regi onal Sp atial Strategy. In fact, an area whi ch contains a minimum of Paulton, Peasedown St. John, Mid somer Norton and Radstock (i ncludi ng Westfi eld) has settlements whi ch are extremely close geographi cally and together represent a more signifi cant population (35 ,500) whi ch can have a greater weigh t in terms of policy maki ng.
▪ Support differentiation in function between the settlements Whil st the settlementsDDDD represent RRRR separate communities,AAAA theirFFFF geographi TT cTT proximity is too close toD DDallD ow retail provisionRRRR in each AA Alocation.A It is recommendedFFFF TTT Tthat the retail off er of Mid somer Norton is supp orted and promoted as the Di strict Centre. Radstock is now an ancill ary retail location but has an important role in the provision of local services.
202
Solutions in Regional Development Section 17
Recommendations & Next Steps
Radstock town centre remains an important focal point for local community service provision and thi s needs to be enhanced and perhaps co-located withi n the ancillary centre.
▪ Create a more effective method of liaison between Midsomer Norton and Radstock & B&NES Council Th ere is some di scord between the communities of Mid somer Norton & Radstock and B&NES Council . Thi s report has id entified a need for B&NES to pl ace more emph asis on the South of the Authority in the future but thi s approach will fail if there is not some consensus behind the activity required and some joint worki ng between the Council and the Community. Thi s is not simply an issue of the dialogue between B&NES Council and Norton Radstock Town Council but also how representative the views of Norton Radstock Town Council are of the broader community groups. Thi s is an area of diffi culty for all concerned but continued di visions will inevitably lead to a lack of abili ty to drive through positive action.
▪ Target some new sectors of activity for inward investment – food, building products, public sector, leisure and tourism Th ere is a need to generate additional investment in the area whi ch can broaden the typ e of empl oyment availabl e. Thi s empl oyment must generate local jobs and also match the skill s and attrib utes of the area. Th e area has a hi story of manufacturing and the sectors generating investment in UK manufacturing currently include buildi ng products and food products. Th ese could be suitabl e sectors for the area to attract. In addi tion there is the possibility to try and attract larger publi c sector organisations currently occupyi ng large and valuabl e sites in Bath. Another area for potential growth is tourism with the location providi ng a base for visiting locations such as Bath, Stonehenge, Wells, Chedd ar and Gl astonbury. Th e attraction of inward investment, however, is extremely competitive and resource intensive. Work in thi s area will also need the earlier points with regard to proactivity, promotion and private sector contact to be addressed. DDDDDDD RRRRRRR AAAAAAA FFFFFFF TTTTTTT ▪ Support the promotion of Bath Business Park and other follow on employment sites If investment is to be attracted to the ‘Greater Norton Radstock’ there is a need for private sector empl oyment sites to be promoted by B&NES in their contact with companies. The information provid ed by B&NES to prospective empl oyers will need to include forthcoming speculative development; likely rental levels along with lease
203
Solutions in Regional Development Section 17
Recommendations & Next Steps
structures; the likely timescales involved in developi ng vacant pl ots for new occupi ers; and any pl anning constraints on occupiers.
▪ Assist in the consolidation of land ownership in central Midsomer Norton In order to thrive as a district centre, Midsomer Norton does need to attract a greater number of national retailers. At present there are a number of li mitations in the retail off er. There is however a fragmentation of land ownership in central Mid somer Norton and thi s creates a diffi culty in assembli ng suitabl e sites for new and larger retail units. In some instances the Council may need to use its powers of intervention in the assembly of some sites.
▪ Consider reducing the housing affordability ratios in the least affluent parts of the area Midsomer Norton & Radstock is the least affl uent part of B&NES and this is reflected in the cost conscious high street of Mid somer Norton. Low wages in the area still result in housing aff ordabili ty issues and there is still a need for the provision of social rented housing. Th ere is an opp ortunity, however, to reduce the level of aff ordabl e housing required in a development in some areas of the district in order to positively impact on wage levels and create a more balanced community. ▪ Undertake a flagship sustainability project within Radstock Radstock has suffered from decli ning retail provision and now has a town centre in form but with insuffi cient commercial activity. There are some heritage, leisure, arts and education opp ortunities withi n the town but with no clear li nk between them. B&NES has an aspiration to lead in the fi eld of sustainability a flagship project of this typ e could unify many of the strengths of the town. It is also li nked to the core principl es of the Co-op who are at the centre of the town. The relatively small size of Radstock would all ow B&NES to undertake a manageabl e trial project for the Authority as a whole. Li nked to this project there is the opp ortunity to examine a town wid e initiative for Radstock such as the provision of a wireless LAN for greater home-worki ng and internet use.DDD DDDD RRRRRRR AAAAAAA FFFFFFF TTTTTTT B&NES could also supp ort an Annual Event in the town li nked to the overall theme of sustainability or leisure. Thi s could involve an activity such as an Organic Food and Drink Festival or developi ng a larger scale Triathlon than the current event. Th ese loose concepts need to be pull ed together into an action pl an for the town.
204
Solutions in Regional Development Section 17
Recommendations & Next Steps
▪ Work with Radco on the future development of Radstock Radco own a large part of Radstock town centre and any successful scheme to develop Radstock will need to embrace Radco. Th ey have had a mixed participation in previous schemes reflecting changes in their management. Th e current retail environment is a chall enge for the entire Co-operative movement and thi s combi ned with the ageing nature of the store in Radstock may result in their greater willi ngness to become involved in future di scussions.
Bath Suburbs ▪ Manage the migration of businesses away from the radial routes and key sites Th ere is ongoing pressure on businesses along the radial routes of Bath. Si tes are used intensively, there are a number of potentially competing uses for the locations and the traffi c generated by the businesses contrib utes to the poor quali ty environment along many of the radi al routes. By developi ng a clear understanding of the proposition on off er at locations such as Peasedown St. John and in the future at new empl oyment locations in Keynsham, Old Mill s, Paulton or St. Peter’s Factory it will be possible to proactively discuss potential migration with some of these businesses at the same time as clearly setting out the future pressures on their current locations.
▪ Balance leisure and services provision with new housing development Th e current extensions of housing to the South of Bath have resulted in the creation of some communities a large di stance from the provision of core services withi n the centre. If the density of resid ential development in the South increases through schemes such as those id entifi ed at the MOD Fox Hill site or if an urban extension is undertaken to the South of Bath there will be a need for a di strict centre with the provision of publi c services and some convenience retail .
▪ Undertake development within the existing city boundary Thi s report has worked on the premise that it is only suitabl e to undertake development withi n the greenbeltDDDDDDD if all otherRRRRRRR sequential AAA AdevelopmentsAAA F FFhaveFFFF taken plTTTT aceTTT and there is a continued need for further development. On this basis, thi s report recommends that currently identifi ed sites are developed before the urban extension of Bath into the greenbelt is undertaken and if the aggressive growth projections contained withi n the Regi onal Spatial Strategy do mot materialise, the need for an urban extension will be delayed.
205
Solutions in Regional Development Section 17
Recommendations & Next Steps
Rural Areas ▪ Undertake some housing development to avoid de-population of core communities
Th e reducing average size of household s in the UK is resulting in communities with a stabl e housing stock experiencing a decli ne in population. A decli ne in population reduces the viability of some service provision and as a result reduces the sustainabili ty of the community whil st at the same time reduces access to services of di sadvantaged groups. As a result it will be necessary to undertake some li mited housing development withi n more rural settlements in order to sustain the community.
▪ Increase affordable housing provision beyond average Council provision Th e proposed development in the rural communities is intended to sustain the existing communities and not create further high value housing developments in attractive rural settlements whi ch simply increases out-commuting and has no impact on the viabili ty of service provision. It is therefore recommended that the provision of aff ordabl e housing in those settlements with an existing provision of core services is increased beyond the ratio set by B&NES. Thi s will counter balance the recommendation to all ow aff ordabl e housing to fall below the average ratio in areas of Mid somer Norton & Radstock.
▪ Continue to include rural enterprise as a core component of economic development activity Th e support of Small and Medium sized Enterprises (SMEs) is an important aspect of broadening the empl oyment off er in areas such as Midsomer Norton & Radstock. Thi s activity must also supp ort the rural enterprises across the Authority whi ch are an important source of empl oyment withi n the rural communities. Th ere is the prospect for these businesses to suppl ement the visitor economy through some farm retail , garden supplies, and more leisure based activities. Th e li mited development of these rural based activities should be supp orted by planning decisions on the extension or conversion of rural property. Pl anning poliDDDDD cyDD should also RRR RRseekRR to preserve AAAAAAA current retail FFFFF FdesigFnations TTTTTT Tin rural areas. Th e provision of retail activity in small rural communities is essential to maintain the sustainability of the community. Pl anning poli cy can supp ort thi s.
206
Solutions in Regional Development Section 17
Recommendations & Next Steps
17.3 Physical Recommendations Th e physical recommendations arising from the Wider B&NES Business Pl an incorporate the aspects of the pl an whi ch are likely to involve capi tal projects to be taken forward by either the Council or the private sector.
B&NES Wide ▪ Integrate priority junctions and dedicated road space for busses
At present, on many of the commuter routes and Park and Ride routes through B&NES and the Bath Suburbs, there is no incentive for car users to catch a bus. The bus shares the road space with the car and is generally, therefore, a slower means of reachi ng the Ci ty of Bath. Thi s is a di sincentive to switch from car use to public transport. Future road and junction improvements on the key commuter routes into Bath should involve consid eration of the suitability of creating further dedicated bus lanes and priority junctions for busses. This would further supp ort the key transport bid s being undertaken by B&NES.
Keynsham Specific ▪ Undertake the redevelopment of the Town Hall as a mixed use retail and office scheme as quickly as possible Th e age, condi tion, architecture and central position of the Town Hall development has a di sproportionate impact on the attractiveness of Keynsham. Th e scheme is also in Council ownership . It is recommended that a replacement offi ce and retail scheme is developed as a priority for the town
▪ Redevelop Riverside as a residential / office mixed use scheme Th e Ri versid e development is adj acent to the Town Hall and there may be the opp ortunity to combi ne the two schemes to improve the quality of and return from any overall development. Th e Ri versid eDD scheme is another RR dominating AA feature of theF Ftown centre, TT but its scale and constructionDDD DimpactDD on the R RpotentialRRRR redevelopment AAAAAA scheme FFFFFF and cost. TT TOnTTT the one hand the wid th of the bl ock may restrict the natural ligh t required for eff ective residential redevelopment whilst on the other the fl oor to ceili ng heigh t restricts the conversion opp ortunities into a practical modern offi ce scheme. More detail ed work needs to be carried out to assess the financial viabili ty and design of Ri verside but the need to retain a balance between empl oyment and resid ential use
207
Solutions in Regional Development Section 17
Recommendations & Next Steps
withi n Keynsham and the physical constraints of the scheme result in a likely mixed use redevelopment incorporating the existing leisure activity; ground fl oor retail; offi ce empl oyment; and resid ential.
▪ Redevelop Charlton Road as an office / residential scheme On balance, Ernst & Young does not recommend that Ch arlton Road is developed as a grocery retail site. Th ere is undoubtedly some ‘leakage’ of convenience retail expendi ture out of Keynsham but the town does have a li mited Somerfi eld store and a large cooperative foodstore on the edge of town, whil st Asda at Longwell Green is less than 5 miles away. This retail provision goes some way to expl aining why there has not been strong retail interest in this site. Gi ven the ‘leakage’ of retail expenditure out of Keynsham, it can be argued that a large grocery retail er would address the situation but thi s overlooks the impact that such a retail er could have on the independent food retailers. Th e overall result is that this is not a decision that can be concluded statistically, but on a judgement over whether new shopp ers will be attracted to a grocery retailer in Keynsham who then visit the High Street, or whether the current retail expendi ture will be displ aced from the High Street into the new grocery retail er. Th e uncertainty; the diffi culty in compl eting a deal on the site; and the need to generate more high quali ty empl oyment sites withi n the town, has resulted in Ernst & Young recommendi ng the switch of uses to an offi ce and residential classifi cation.
▪ Support the development of light industrial at Somerdale and Broadmead Lane Th ere is a dual opportunity in Keynsham. Th e location of the town can create pull factors attracting addi tional business investment, whilst pressure on sites withi n the Ci ty of Bath is creating a push factor through which sub-regi onal businesses are being di spl aced. As a result there is a need to develop further ligh t industrial space and some opp ortunities exist in extendi ng or intensifyi ng industrial activity. Th e most app arent opp ortunities exist to the rear of Cadb ury (Somerdale) and to the North of the railway li ne alongsid e DBroadmead Lane.R A F T DDDDDDD RRRRRRR AAAAAAA FFFFFFF TTTTTTT ▪ Develop a common bus terminus in the Town At present a number of different bus routes stop at different locations withi n the town. Thi s creates confusion and a di sincentive to use publi c transport. There is a need for a common bus terminus withi n the town and there is the opp ortunity to create such a
208
Solutions in Regional Development Section 17
Recommendations & Next Steps
facili ty at a low cost withi n the Ashton Way car park. Thi s will also result in less traffi c congestion along the High Street.
▪ Improve the pedestrian / traffic interface within the Town Centre Th e li near nature of the High Street and the importance of the route for traffi c results in a diffi cult relationship between pedestrians and traffi c. High Street redevelopments will result in opp ortunities for small changes in traffi c fl ows and the potential investment of any developer contrib utions in softening the current road layout with pl anting, publi c realm investment and traffic calming.
Midsomer Norton & Radstock Specific ▪ Develop car parking provision alongside commuter bus stops Commuter bus usage can be improved if it is as easy as possibl e to catch the bus. Not all Mid somer Norton & Radstock resid ents li ve withi n walki ng di stance of the point of bus departure. Convenience would be improved by providi ng car parki ng and improved waiting facili ties at thi s point of departure. Th ese changes would improve the incentive to use the existing bus services.
▪ Retain some employment space provision beyond the Bath Business Park Few developers have undertaken speculative developments in recent years withi n B&NES. This has been partly influenced by the better returns avail abl e from resid ential development but also by the circular argument that a lack of availabl e space has led to a lack of lettings whi ch in turn has led lack of confid ence in the market. Thi s lack of empl oyment site development activity has led to some scepticism over whether many further employment sites need to be retained. At present, however, there is a need to retain empl oyment site provision both to test the level of demand and in an attempt to better balance the empl oyment characteristics of the Authority. Thi s is reinforced by the current interest level in the Bath Business Park whi ch has been achieved by a developer packagi ng and promoting the location in a more proactive manner. Th e availabili DDDDDDty D of un-serviced RRRRRRR land zoned AAAA AforAA empl oyment FFFFFFF use but where TTTTTTT there remains a hope for residential development offering improved returns does not represent a test of market demand for empl oyment use.
▪ Accept that larger employment sites will need to be mixed use developments
209
Solutions in Regional Development Section 17
Recommendations & Next Steps
Despite the need to retain empl oyment sites for the area, the decrease in manufacturing investment within the UK and the increase in automation withi n the sector has reduced the need for very large industrial sites. Furthermore, the growing importance of service sector investment has increased the empl oyment densities on sites. Th e result is that less empl oyment land is now required to accommodate the same level of empl oyment. Large empl oyment generation can be gained from li mited site areas and the investment whi ch stimulates these developments can be attracted by all owing some high er return activity on the remainder of the site.
▪ Undertake some urban realm improvements on Midsomer Norton High Street Mid omer Norton has the potential to be an extremely attractive town centre with some minor investment in public realm and street setting. Any fund to assist with improvements to the shop frontages of small independent retail ers recommended for Keynsham could be extended to Mid somer Norton.
▪ Accept that some small retail units may revert back to residential in Radstock Radstock currently contains a number of retail units whi ch are either vacant, turnover regularly, or app ear to be in decli ne. As a result the scale of the current retail off er app ears to be too great for the demand provid ed in the town. It is recommended that pl anning policy allows some reversion of the more periph eral retail units to a resid ential use. This will all ow retail tradi ng to be better concentrated, avoid damagi ng competition for the existing retail that trades at an acceptabl e level and reduces the impact that vacant retail units and deteriorating buildi ngs have on the overall impression of the town centre. Th e obj ective of thi s recommendation is to protect what is sustainabl e and ensure that Radstock retains its position as an important ancill ary centre.
▪ Improve the public amenity space in Radstock A number of proposals have been made to improve buildi ngs withi n Radstock for community activity. At present none of these schemes has succeeded fundamentally because theyDDDD DDfailD ed to show RRR RReconomicRR viabili AAAAAAA ty. FFFFFFF TTTTTTT In the long term any public amenity improvements in Radstock will need a clear purpose and some ability to generate revenue in order to sustain their use. If a B&NES Council / community based sustainability project could be focused on Radstock and the Co-operative Society pl ayed a role in that vision, there is an opp ortunity for some redevelopment activity incorporating Radco whi ch can accommodate a better defi ned community space.
210
Solutions in Regional Development Section 17
Recommendations & Next Steps
17.4 Next Steps Th ere are a li mited number of next steps whi ch arise from the recommendations. Th ese are as foll ows: 1. Develop an implementation vehicle for the B&NES Business Plans (Bath and Wider Area Study) which includes the emerging Local Area Agreements for B&NES. Th e impl ementation of the B&NES Business Pl ans will be a long term project which involves a number of communities as well as a number of Departments withi n the Council . Th e work will also require wide political supp ort. In order the impl ement the Pl an there is now a need for a comprehensive action plan whi ch sets a timetabl e for deli very. Th e action pl an will also need to incorporate overall leadership; internal structures; priorities; funding opp ortunities; reporting mechanisms; external involvement and may also need to include issues relating to governance, risk and controls. Such an action pl an could set the overall direction, priorities and resource requirements for economic development and regeneration withi n the Council .
2. Develop the approach of economic development within B&NES.
Th e economic development activity of B&NES will need to develop a more proactive app roach to business and place more emph asis on Keynsham and especially ‘Greater Norton Radstock’. It is envisaged that economic development should focus on: ▪ Becoming more client led. Whil st economic development is about achi eving the needs of the economy of B&NES, the largest infl uence on this development are external organisations. Economic development needs to have a ‘client relationship ’ with these businesses. ▪ Developi ng a better understandi ng of the offer presented by B&NES to private sector business. This is likely to include a detail ed understandi ng of land avail abili ty and the cost of development and will involve a more proactive relationshipDDDDD with theRRRRR key property AAA AdevelopersA withi FFFFFn B&NES TT. T TT ▪ UndertakiDD ng some RR work on id entifyiAA ng the potential FF sectors TwhiT ch can grow in the regi on and (as a minimum) li aising with SWRDA on the opp ortunities whi ch may be presented withi n the sector. Th ree suggestions for potentially growing sectors whi ch would be reasonably suited to the area are buildi ng products; food; and leisure and tourism.
211
Solutions in Regional Development Section 17
Recommendations & Next Steps
▪ Investor development. At present there is a very li mited relationship with the larger businesses across B&NES and no relationship with any decision makers withi n those companies when they are located outside of the Local Authority area. Th ere is an opp ortunity to have a better understandi ng of these businesses, infl uence their pl anning, and assist in their development. ▪ Expl oring the potential for migration and managi ng the opp ortunity created. Th ere is an opp ortunity to begi n to better infl uence the migration of businesses from zones of transition such as the Lower Bristol Road. Not all businesses will be prepared to move, and where businesses do move, they may choose a location which is outsid e of B&NES, but at present the entire process is left to chance. ▪ Expl oring the opp ortunities for publi c sector relocation from valuabl e but constrained sites withi n Bath to the under-utili sed areas of ‘Greater Norton Radstock’ – particularly Peasedown St. John in the short term.
3. Undertake a detailed master plan, financial appraisal and implementation strategy for the Keynsham Town Hall and Riverside development. Thi s is a key area of the Business Pl an and involves not only physical redevelopment but also the management of relocated functions and the eventual migration of Council staff away from Keynsham. At present li ttle work has been compl eted on thi s difficult project and the co-terminus leases of many of the occupi ers withi n the scheme present both an opp ortunity but also a deadli ne for action. At present the timetable for the migration of Council empl oyees app ears to result in a potential relocation at the same time as the redevelopment of the Town Hall is underway. Thi s could be extremely damagi ng for the High Street.
4. Develop a community plan for Radstock. Radstock is a town in economic decli ne and thi s Business Pl an recognises that this decli ne can be managed. Th ere is a need for a greater purpose for the town and its community. Th e growing importance of sustainable development; the aspirations of B&NES Council in this area; and the important presence of the co-operative presents an opp ortunityDDDDDDD to develop RRRR RaRR pl an but thi AAs AA AAidA ea needs more FFFFFFF work. TTTTTTT
212 Solutions in Regional Development Appendix 1
Bus Timetables
Appendix 1 – Bus Timetables
The bus timetables are provided in the table below. These tables are from Public Transport Map 2005-2006 (B&NES Council) and Bath and North East Somerset Bus Times, 1 May 2005 by First Group, who is the main bus service provider for the area. Major Routes :
Main bus Routes Number Frequency
Bath – Peasedown St John – Radstock – 173,175,178,184,778 Every 20 min MSN
Bath – Saltford – Brislington – Bristol X39, 339, 649 Every 12 min
Bath – Saltford – Keynsham 337, 339, 649 Every 30 minutes
Bath – Corsham – Chippenham X31, 231, 232 Every 30 minutes
Bath –Bekington – Frome 267, 767 hourly
Bath – Bradford-on-Avon – Trowbridge X4, X5 20/30 minutes
Keynsham – Brislington – Bristol 178, 339, 349, 649, 10/20 minutes 678
Radstock – MSN – Keynsham – Bristol 178, 678 hourly
Public Transport Map 2005-2006 (B&NES Council) and Bath and North East Somerset Bus Times, 1 May 2005 by First Group
From Bath and B&NES to other main cities:
Bus Routes Number Frequency
Bath – Bitton – Longwell Green – Hanham – St. 332/333, hourly George – Bristol 632
Bath – St Martins Hospital – Hinton Charterhouse 267/767 hourly – Norton St Philip – Frome
Bath – Bitton – (Keynsham – Longwell Green) 319/318 hourly Kingswood – Downend –UWE – BPW – Cribbs Cause Way
Bath – Box – Melksham –Devizes – Easterton X71/X72 hourly
Bath – Timsbury – Paulton – MSN – Radstock 179, 779 Every 2 hours
213 Solutions in Regional Development Appendix 1
Bus Timetables
Bath – Bradford-on-Avon – Melksham X85/X86 1 journey each per day
Bath – Melksham –Calne – Marlborough X76 1 journey per day
Trowbridge – Westwood – Freshford – Monkton 94 6 journeys per day Combe – Bath
Tetbury – Westonbrit – Chipping Sodbury – Yate – 620 Every 3 hourly Pucklechurch – Wick – Landsdown – Bath
Public Transport Map 2005-2006 (B&NES Council) and Bath and North East Somerset Bus Times, 1 May 2005 by First Group
Bath city centre is well served by the following services as given in the table below. Bath is divided in to Zone 1 to 3, Zone 1 being the city centre.
Bath City Services
Bus Routes Number Frequency
UoB – Bath – Oldfield Park – Green Park – 418 Every 30 minutes Bath Spa UC
Ensleigh – Lansdown Road – City Centre 2/702 Every 30 min (CC) – Bus Station (BS) – Widcome – Ralph Allen Drive – Combe Down
Bathampton – Sydney Gardens – CC – BS 4/704 Every 30 min – Widcombe –Ralph allen Drive – Combe Down
BS – James Street West – Sainsbury – Lwr 5 Every 10 minutes Bristol Road – Twerton – Whiteway
BS - CC – Camden Crescent – Fairfield 6/706 and 7/707 the Every 15 minutes Park – Larkhall – Safeway – CC – BS other way
BS – James Street West – Sainsbury – 10 Every 10 minutes Moorland Road – Coronation Avenue – Southdown
Foxhill Est – St Martins Hospital – Bear 13/713 Every 15 minutes Flat – BS – CC – Kensington Safeway – Batheaston – Elmhurst Est – Bathford
Weston – RUH – Victoria Park – CC – BS 14/A714 Every 8 minutes (Weston – Bear Flat – Bloomfield Road – Odd to BS) Down
214 Solutions in Regional Development Appendix 1
Bus Timetables
Every 15 minutes (BS to Odd Down)
Whiteway – The Hollow (*Upper Weston – 16/712 and *17/717 Every 30 min Weston – Penn Lea Road) –BS – Oldfield Park – Moorlands Est – Kingsway
(*Bath Spa UC – Newbridge – Oldfield 18/*418 Every 6 min (term time) Park – Sainsburys) – BS – Bathwick Hill – and * Every 30 min University of Bath BSUC term time
UoB– CC (P&R Service) 19 Every 20 min
Newbridge – CC (P&R Service) 21 Every 20 min
Lansdown– CC (P&R Service) 31 Every 15 min
Odd Down – CC (P&R Service) 41 Every 12 min
Odd Down P&R – RUH 42 (Abus) Every 30 min
Bath circular – Bus station – Weston – 20A/20C hourly Twerton – Whiteway – Combe Down – UoB – BS
Sion hill – BS/Locksbrook Road – 700/716/734 2 hourly Newbridge – Lower Weston – BS/ Bathwick – BS
Public Transport Map 2005-2006 (B&NES Council) and Bath and North East Somerset Bus Times, 1 May 2005 by First Group
215