Programme in 2017 Programme in 2017 The AfricaThe Annual ReportAnnual Africa Programme 2017 | December
The Africa Programme in 2017 Chatham House Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, is an independent policy institute based in London. Our mission is to help build a sustainably secure, prosperous and just world.
For more information please contact Tighisti Amare, Africa Programme Manager, Chatham House Tel: + 44 (0) 207 9527 5718 Email: [email protected] | @AfricaProg Website: https://www.chathamhouse.org/about/structure/africa-programme Contents
Foreword 2 Introduction 3 Africa in the International System 4 Demographic Change and Inclusive Economic Growth 9 Technology and Governance 12 The Africa Programme and Nigeria 14 The Horn of Africa Project 18 The Africa Programme and Angola 20 Elections and Political Systems 22 Peace and Security 26 2017 Africa Programme Speakers 27 2017 Africa Programme Reports 32 Africa Programme Staff 33 Africa Programme Funders 34 Africa Programme Partners 35
Chatham House | 1 Foreword
2017 was a year of leadership changes and unprecedented events in a number of sub-Saharan African countries. ECOWAS regional leaders ensured that President Yahya Jammeh obeyed the will of the Gambian people to end his 22 year reign. President Robert Mugabe was forced from office, the only leader independent Zimbabwe has known in its 37 years. In Angola, José Eduardo dos Santos, also president for 37 years, ended his own tenure, enabling a smooth transition. Somalia’s Mohamed Abdullahi ‘Farmaajo’ Mohamed defeated his more established rivals to win the February presidential election, and the Kenyan Supreme Court made history in voiding the result of the August election. Post-conflict Liberia has taken charge of organizing its elections without the involvement of the UN for the first time, and what challenges there were in the first round were made through the courts and not on the streets. Increasing resort to the courts reveals growing trust in and independence of the judiciary, and shows how the entrenchment of the rule of law and stronger institutions can take the heat out of political crises. But the past year has also seen democratic principles undermined with mounting state repression in Zambia, Tanzania and Cameroon among others, as well as seemingly deadlocked crises in South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. As sub-Saharan Africa’s political trends diverged, so too did its economic development. While growth ticked up slightly across the continent on average – to around 2.4 per cent, up from 1.3 per cent in 2016 – this figure masks immense heterogeneity in the experiences of different countries. While Nigeria and South Africa, the former continental powerhouses, went through periods of recession as a result of low global energy and metals prices, more dynamic economies including Ethiopia, Côte d’Ivoire and Rwanda managed to sustain growth rates of over seven per cent. A key area of concern in 2018 will be rising debt levels and debt servicing costs, as well as the immense challenge of creating quality jobs for the 420 million Africans ages 15 to 35. In 2018, the Africa Programme will continue to work with decision-makers towards fostering improved outcomes in Africa, as we sustain analysis of and debate on sub-Saharan Africa’s political and economic successes and trials. We could not do this work without all those who fund us, and we are grateful for their generous support. Dr Alex Vines OBE Head, Africa Programme
2 | Chatham House Introduction
Around the world, 2017 has been a year of major political upheavals and geopolitical shifts. As many countries grapple with significant domestic challenges, the Africa Programme has continued to expand its activities, seeking to support decision-makers internationally with evidence-based analysis and policy options, and providing a platform for debate and discussion. The Africa Programme maintains its unique position as the largest policy programme on African affairs and international relations within an independent institute globally. Africa Programme policy publications this year have examined the scaling- up of businesses in Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia; governance for infrastructure development in Côte d’Ivoire; a new approach to anti-corruption efforts in Nigeria; South Africa’s economic engagement in sub-Saharan Africa; and Central and Eastern Europe’s re-engagement with sub-Saharan Africa. We hosted over 130 events in 2017, and our analysts provided over 600 written contributions and verbal interviews to media organizations globally.
Africa Programme Outreach in 2017: • 40+ Publications • 130+ Events • 600+ Media contributions • 30+ Countries visited
Our events provide international policy-makers with important independent primary information and analysis on African governance, economic growth, demographic change, security, development and resource management. They also provide the opportunity for engagement of African and other international policy-makers with private sector representatives, civil society, independent experts, diplomats and the media. Field research has remained core to our work and in the last year, Africa Programme researchers have travelled to over 30 countries and engaged with a wide range of stakeholders. Increased use of video-streaming and social media has ensured that discussions can reach a broader audience, enabling wider interaction with government and opposition leaders, as well as civil society representatives and businesses.
Chatham House | 3 Africa in the International System
Africa Programme research and network development seek to generate better understanding among international policy- makers of the changing dynamics of the African political and economic landscape, and of government priorities. In 2017, the Programme hosted a series of events to assess regional and international priorities of governments across Africa, with the foreign ministers of Gabon, Somalia and Sudan; the Principal Secretary at the Kenyan Ministry of Foreign Affairs; and the Undersecretary at the Sudanese Foreign Ministry.
Central and Eastern Europe and sub-Saharan Africa The countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and sub-Saharan Africa have started to re- engage with each other after many years of limited interaction following the end of the Cold War. With the support of Robert Bosch Stiftung, the Africa Programme is examining the drivers of and Africa is of growing prospects for further engagement between the two regions. A series of events, publications and interest to CEE but fellowships have examined the opportunities that these relations might emerge for CEE and African countries from will not become these engagements. sustainable As part of this project, a one-day conference in without a strategic Berlin, and expert workshops in Prague and Berlin approach on were held in 2017. Programme analysts conducted both sides field research in the Czech Republic, Ethiopia,
Stefan Cibian, Chatham House Hungary, Mozambique, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Academy Fellow (2016–2017) South Africa and Tanzania.
4 | Chatham House Africa in the International System
The Horn of Africa and Gulf States The drivers, nature and impact of the emerging interests and relations between countries in the Horn of Africa and the Gulf have been analysed through field research and expert workshops conducted in the two regions. The final output of this project, a research paper to be published in 2018, will focus on the economic, diplomatic and Intra-Gulf disputes strategic cooperation and competition that is playing out and having wider consequences in the region. are having an increasing The findings of this in-depth study will seek impact on relations to support improved coordination and policy outcomes towards sustainable peace, development in the Horn of and integration in the Horn of Africa. Africa, with the potential to disrupt An expert comment by Ahmed Soliman examined these dynamics, including how tensions between regional stability the Gulf States are pushing partners in the Horn Ahmed Soliman, Research of Africa into choosing sides, with the potential Associate, Africa Programme to further disrupt regional stability.
South Africa’s Economic Engagement in Sub-Saharan Africa This research paper assesses the drivers of South Africa’s economic engagement in sub- Saharan Africa and highlights how successive ANC governments have sought to leverage the country’s commercial advancement to bolster the country’s political influence on the continent. It concludes that a more strategic and realistic approach is required for South Africa to fulfil its complex and often conflicting roles. Additional commentary argued that such a strategic vision need not contradict the values that have shaped the party’s aspirations for the continent since 1994.
Chatham House | 5 Africa in the International System
China currently Africa–China Relations provides around China’s rapid economic growth and the abundance one sixth of of natural resources in many African countries Africa’s total have fuelled economic engagements, which have financing for grown exponentially since the turn of the century infrastructure and attracted international interest. Economic cooperation with the continent has resulted in projects Chinese companies operating in almost every sector in Africa, and China currently provides around one sixth of Africa’s total financing for infrastructure projects. In November Alex Vines participated in the Beijing Forum 2017, which looked at emerging trends in Sino-Africa development cooperation.
Lessons from Kenya’s New Chinese-funded Railway Rebekka Rumpel analysed Kenya’s new Chinese- funded railway and how infrastructure agreements with China can be beneficial for all parties. She argued that despite cost concerns, Kenya’s deal shows that infrastructure agreements with China can be made fairer for citizens of partner countries. Its neighbours should take note.
How Influential is China in Zimbabwe? In the wake of the end of the Mugabe presidency in Zimbabwe, in an article for BBC News, Alex Vines examined the extent of China’s influence in Zimbabwe, and argued that a clear transitional arrangement resulting in elections for a legitimate government in Harare is as much in Beijing’s interests as it is in London’s.
6 | Chatham House Africa in the International System
Priorities and Possibilities in US–Africa Relations A panel with the US Acting Assistant Secretary for the Bureau of African Affairs, Ambassador Donald Yamamoto, and Acting Deputy Assistant for African Affairs in the office of the Secretary of Defense, Michelle Lenihan, discussed US-Africa relations from diplomatic and defence perspectives, reflecting on the foundations that drive US engagements with African states. Ambassador Yamamoto described as a common endeavour the US priorities of advancing economic growth and investment; enhancing peace and security, including counter-terrorism and countering violent extremism; and entrenching democratic values and institutions.
Africa–EU Relations In the run up to the African Union-European Union summit held in Côte d’Ivoire on 29–30 November, Paul Melly and Tighisti Amare attended pre-summit conferences in Brussels and Abidjan, and in a joint expert comment assessed the difficulties of building a genuine Africa–EU partnership. The scaremongering over the size of Events and expert comments also assessed the drivers of migration from sub-Saharan Africa refugee flows into Europe; EU initiatives such as the Khartoum obscures a broader Process, aimed at reducing the numbers of people picture of migration crossing the Mediterranean; the need to address in West Africa and long-term development-centred challenges that are the Sahel, driven the main drivers of migration; and policy options by long-term available to policy-makers to disrupt human smuggling practices in the neglected settlements development- of northern Niger and southern Libya. centred challenges
Tim Eaton, Research Fellow, MENA Programme, and Paul Melly, Associate Fellow, Africa Programme
Chatham House | 7 Africa in the International System
UK’s Priorities and Engagement in Africa post-Brexit As the political landscape in the UK shifted following the Brexit vote, the Africa Programme examined prospects for post-Brexit UK relations in Africa and with Africa’s partners. In April, the Programme hosted a conference on UK-Africa relations and priorities post-Brexit. At this event, Rt Hon Tobias Ellwood, then UK Minister for the Middle East and Africa, spoke about how the UK plans to continue and to modernise its partnerships with Africa through increased engagement. South Africa’s Minister of Trade and Industry, Hon Dr Rob Davies, spoke about his country’s post-Brexit trading relationship with the UK, and how South Africa is poised to respond to economic changes in the global system.
The G20 and Africa The Africa Elizabeth Donnelly attended the constitutive Programme is part meeting of the T20 Africa Standing Group of the T20 Africa (T20-ASG) in May. The Africa Programme is part of the T20-ASG, a group of African and international Standing Group think-tanks which will support cooperation (T20-ASG) between the G20 and Africa with evidence-based policy advice.
8 | Chatham House Demographic Change and Inclusive Economic Growth
Improved policy environments in many states in sub-Saharan Africa, rooted in more democratic leadership and better economic management, have generated more nuanced debate around trends in Africa, with a focus on economic, sociopolitical and technological transformation. Africa Programme activities in 2017 assessed prospects for transformative growth, evolving policy contexts and strategies to address the governance and institutional impediments to change. The Prime Minister of Côte d’Ivoire, HE Amadou Gon Coulibaly, outlined how best his country can develop into a middle-income economy by 2020, while the Finance Minister of Zambia, Hon Felix Mutati, discussed his government’s plan to secure financial stability and generate inclusive economic growth. The Programme also hosted the launches of the joint AfDB, OECD and UNDP’s African Economic Outlook 2017 report, and UNECA’s 2017 Economic Report on Africa.
Growth in Africa: the End of 'Africa Rising'? Director of the Africa Department at the IMF, Abebe Selassie, outlined Africa’s current Ghana plays an economic trajectory, highlighting the necessary important role fiscal and policy responses to ensure inclusive and in West Africa as sustainable recovery. He underscored the need a symbol of peace, for a more nuanced understanding of increasingly harmony, and differentiated growth stories in Africa. democracy. So it The Way Ahead for Ghana: Putting Policy is important that into Practice Ghana succeeds. A delegation of Ghanaian ministers discussed the Joseph Cudjoe, Deputy Minister implementation of Ghana’s key policy priorities of Energy, Republic of Ghana around energy and infrastructure.
Chatham House | 9 Africa’s Youth Population A panel discussion that included former President of Nigeria Chief Olusegun Obasanjo examined some of the key challenges facing Africa in terms of job creation and demographic change, while an event with Samson Itodo of the Youth Initiative for Advocacy, Growth and Advancement (YIAGA) assessed how increased youth participation in the political process could help to stabilise Nigeria.
Developing Businesses of Scale in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia Africa Programme researchers engaged with over sixty businesses across four countries, as well as government officials, international organisations, and investors to produce analysis and policy options to support job-creation through the development of African businesses of scale. The research paper highlights the contribution that new technologies can make in addressing key areas for action, such as education and skills development, as well as access to capital and markets. UK Minister of State for Africa at the Foreign & Commonwealth Office and Minister of State for International Development, Rory Stewart MP, spoke alongside Nigerian entrepreneur Tony Elumelu at the launch of the paper. Developing Energy Resources in Mozambique HE Letícia Deusina da Silva Klemens, Mozambique’s then Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy, discussed progress in developing the country’s extractive and renewable energy potential, and highlighted the role of energy resources in the country’s greater economic ambitions.
10 | Chatham House Demographic Change and Inclusive Economic Growth
Building Inclusivity in Côte d’Ivoire? Promoting Sustainable Growth Through Infrastructure Development The rapid recovery of Côte d’Ivoire’s economy over the past half-decade brings with it an unprecedented opportunity to use massive flows of investment from abroad, particularly in infrastructural development, President Alassane to achieve economic transformation. Ouattara, in his This Africa Programme publication, which is second and final also available in French, examines how effective administration, has governance of infrastructure development and fostering local participation can help support a clear opportunity development and sustainable growth in Côte d’Ivoire. to shape the future It argues that President Alassane Ouattara, in of Côte d'Ivoire his second and final administration, has a clear
Ben Shepherd, Consulting Fellow, opportunity to shape the future of his country. Africa Programme
Tanzania’s New Natural Resources Laws President Magufuli In July 2017, Tanzania’s parliament passed laws is trying to reject that radically altered the legal and institutional that period of frameworks governing the extractive sector in greater foreign the country. involvement and Africa Programme Research Assistant liberalization of Rebekka Rumpel provided analysis on President the '90s and 2000s Magufuli’s reasons for putting these new policies in place, and the implications of his approach Rebekka Rumpel, Research Assistant, Africa Programme for international investors.
Chatham House | 11 Technology and Governance
It is widely recognised that technology is influencing socio-economic change in Africa, and that by enabling innovation and collaboration, information technology has the potential to accelerate the growth of African businesses, enhance economic development and improve civic engagement in political and economic life. By bringing together policy-makers and experts, the Africa Programme is supporting the sharing of existing research and the testing of assumptions on the impact that technology and the internet are having on economic transformation; and on civic and youth engagement in politics and African governments’ attitudes to their technologically- engaged populations.
Technology and Development in Africa: Innovation for Sustainable Growth The Africa Programme hosted the President of Mauritius, HE Ameenah Gurib-Fakim, who discussed the role of technology in driving forward development in Africa, and what can be done to overcome the hurdles that innovators face.
Digital Participation and Democracy in East Africa An event with Maria Sarungi, founder of the #ChangeTanzania platform, examined how technology is changing democracy in East Africa.
12 | Chatham House Technology and Governance
Accountability Through Innovation: How can Transparency Strengthen Governance? Internet access and the rise in social media usage offers citizens additional avenues to gather information on how public officials govern and public funds are managed. At an Africa Programme event, Oluseun Onigbinde, co-founder of the civil engagement platform BudgIT, shared his experience of using technology to strengthen public accountability, and examined the conditions under which innovative social advocacy platforms such as BudgIT can be a vehicle for effecting positive change in governance in Nigeria and across sub-Saharan Africa.
Chatham House | 13 The Africa Programme and Nigeria
A number of key Nigerian figures delivered public addresses at Chatham House, including the Governors of Kaduna State and Rivers State; the Attorney- General of the Federation and Minister of Justice; and the Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission.
Calls for Biafran Independence Return to South East Nigeria Analysis by Sola Tayo and Fidelis Mbah examined the recent calls for Biafran independence and argued that a fresh insurrection by Biafra secessionists would plunge the country into deeper insecurity.
Violence in Southern Kaduna Threatens to Undermine Nigeria’s Democratic Stability As outbreaks of violence in southern Kaduna reached an unprecedented scale, Leena Koni Hoffman analysed the root causes of the attacks and argued that the wave of devastating attacks and reprisals in this part of the state are a chilling reminder of rural Nigeria’s vast security vulnerabilities and communal tensions.
14 | Chatham House The Africa Programme and Nigeria
Collective Action on Corruption in Nigeria In May 2017, the Africa Programme published its ground-breaking report Collective Action on Corruption in Nigeria: A Social Norms Approach to Connecting Society and Institutions. The report analyses findings from over 4,000 household surveys conducted across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones and the Federal Capital Territory, with research conducted in Abuja, Adamawa, Benue, Enugu, Lagos, Rivers and Sokoto. The research tests assumptions around social norms of corruption in Nigeria and aims to support policy-makers in developing more robust anti-corruption strategies. In collaboration with the University of Pennsylvania’s Social Norms Group (PennSONG) and research teams from seven organisations in Nigeria, this research provides an in-depth analysis of social norms of corruption in Nigeria and options to generate action by a critical mass of local actors who seek to forge a ‘new normal’. As part of the outreach for this project, the Africa Programme hosted launch events in all seven Nigerian states where research was conducted, and bilateral meetings were held with state governors and commissioners to whom the findings of the report were presented.
Chatham House | 15 The Africa Programme and Nigeria
Next Generation Nigeria: Event Series The discussion around restructuring took centre stage in Nigeria in 2017, with an increasing number of political heavyweights in the country advocating for a return to ‘true federalism’. Proponents of restructuring argue that greater fiscal and political autonomy for states or regions will lead to greater representation and healthy competition between states for power and resources, and will lead to sustainable and inclusive economic growth and stability. The Africa Programme launched a series of events entitled Next Generation Nigeria, focusing on the restructuring debate and seeking to garner viewpoints from a variety of relevant stakeholders. HE Nasir el-Rufai, Governor of Kaduna State and chairperson of the ruling APC’s committee on restructuring, began the series by outlining the key points in the debate. Chief John Nnia Nwodo, President-General of Ohanaeze Ndigbo, discussed the importance of national cohesion in the polity, while Samson Itodo from YIAGA analysed the challenges faced by Nigeria’s youth in the debate. The remaining three events in the Next Generation Nigeria series will be held in early 2018.
His Imperial Majesty (HIM) Ọba Adéyeyè Enitan Ògúnwùsì (Òjájá II), Oòni of Ifé, addressing an Africa Programme audience on the importance of community engagement and inclusive governance in Nigeria, and the role that can be played by the country’s traditional leaders.
16 | Chatham House The Africa Programme and Nigeria
The Africa Africa Programme Parliamentary Programme Engagement on Nigeria provides research Nigeria All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) and administration events in 2017 included a discussion with the support to the UK Prime Minister’s Trade Envoy to Nigeria, UK All-Party John Howell OBE MP, and diaspora business leaders, on navigating the Nigerian market Parliamentary and UK business engagement. Group (APPG) on Nigeria. In the lead-up to a 2018 parliamentary visit to Nigeria focused on strengthening institutional capacity to reduce people trafficking from Nigeria to the UK, the APPG on Nigeria conducted events in parliament to explore opportunities for enhanced bilateral cooperation in the wake of £12 million allocated to tackle this issue in Nigeria from the UK’s Home Office and Department from International Development (DFID).
Chatham House | 17 The Horn of Africa Project
Somalia’s Transition Somalia’s recovery and political transition remained on track despite a difficult year including delayed elections, disputes between the government and federal member states, destructive attacks by al-Shabaab and devastating drought. The most extensive electoral process in the country for decades culminated in February with the election of President Mohamed Abdullahi ‘Farmaajo’ Mohamed. Ahmed Soliman analysed the progress and difficulties of the election, as well as the new government’s priorities.
London Somalia Conference 2017 During the London Somalia Conference in May, Ahmed Soliman chaired a session on the value of diaspora and civil society. The conference outcomes, including Somalia’s national priorities and the coordination of international engagement, were discussed at Chatham House by Foreign Minister HE Yusuf-Garaad Omar, UN envoy Michael Keating, and the then UK Minister for the Middle East and Africa Rt Hon Tobias Ellwood.
Easing of US Economic Sanctions on Sudan The permanent easing of US economic sanctions on Sudan in October reflected a broader trend towards international re-engagement with the government of Sudan. Commentary and events analysed the impact of this normalisation of relations and whether the lifting of sanctions could be a catalyst for addressing internal conflicts, political and economic reforms, as well as broadening humanitarian access and development.
18 | Chatham House The Horn of Africa Project
Dame Rosalind Marsden examined the need for the next phase of US and Western engagement to move beyond external issues such as counterterrorism and migration and focus on human rights, peace and democracy.
South Sudan After almost four years of civil war in South Sudan, events at Chatham House continued to focus on prospects for fostering inclusive peace, political dialogue and future governance options. Bishop Emeritus Paride Taban spoke about the role of the church in mediating peace and convincing leaders to commit to dialogue. Ahmed Soliman and Aly Verjee wrote about the need for the international community to support the High Level Revitalization Forum by setting clear expectations in order to prevent the failure of regional mediation, which would likely exacerbate the conflict in South Sudan.
Chatham House | 19 The Africa Programme and Angola
In a crucial year for Angola, the Angola Forum 2017: Economic Diversification, Africa Programme has continued to inform international policy related Development and Strengthening Democracy to Angola, analysing emerging trends and political developments The Africa Programme’s annual Angola Forum in the country and region. convened policy-makers and party officials at Chatham House for debate and discussion on the country’s economic and political future. The conference addressed critical questions concerning the relationship between the state and its citizens, and how Angola’s institutions can be strengthened. The conference provided a platform for representatives from opposition parties UNITA and CASA-CE to present their policy alternatives ahead of the national election.
Mine Action in Angola: Landmine-free by 2025 The Africa Programme provides research and administrative support to the APPG on Angola. Twenty years since the visit to Angola by Diana, Princess of Wales, to highlight the humanitarian impact of landmines left over from the civil war, Angola has not yet achieved the objective of the Ottawa Treaty in becoming landmine-free. A parliamentary event convened by the Angola APPG brought together Angolan government representatives, bilateral partners and mine action agencies to examine the state of international support for mine action in Angola, and explore the potential for renewed UK funding. An Angola APPG briefing note was launched at Chatham House with HRH Prince Harry.
20 | Chatham House The Africa Programme and Angola
Angola’s 2017 Elections: the End of Dos Santos’s Presidency On 23 August 2017, Angolans elected a new president for the first time in 37 years, in a transfer of power with significant national, regional and international implications. Africa Programme research events and analysis highlighted the country’s economic and political trajectory, the foreign and economic policy priorities of newly elected President João Lourenço, and the legacy of former president José Eduardo dos Santos.
José Eduardo Dos Santos: the Man who Ended the War The legacy of former Angolan president José Eduardo dos Santos was examined in an expert comment piece considering differing perspectives of his legacy in the domestic and international spheres. As the new president consolidates his position, Chatham House analysis has reflected on the speed and scope of change in the country, including new appointments in banking, the oil sector and government, and the dismissal of dos Santos family members and allies, including the former president’s daughter, Isabel, who previously headed the state oil company Sonangol.
The DRC will be the First Foreign Policy Priority for Angola’s new President Angola’s foreign policy priories were explored by Alex Vines in an article for World Politics Review on the shape of Angola’s future engagement with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which is facing a prolonged period of political stasis and crisis in the western province of Kasai.
Chatham House | 21 Elections and Political Systems
2017 has been a year of both political transition and continuity in Africa. While the trajectory of democratic advances has remained clear, and citizens continued to demand more accountability from their leaders, developments across the continent have remained uneven.
The African Union Vision for Peace and Prosperity in Africa HE Moussa Faki Mahamat, Chairperson of the African Union Commission, outlined the AU’s current approach to challenges, how it ensures effective implementation of democracy, elections and human rights, and the commitment of member states to their obligations. At the beginning of the year, Dr Christopher Fomunyoh, Senior Associate and Regional Director for Africa at the National Democratic Institute, examined the implications of elections in Africa in 2016, and assessed the challenges ahead for elections in 2017.
Liberia The Africa Programme’s Deputy Head and Research Fellow, Elizabeth Donnelly, served as a member of the National Democratic Institute’s observer group in Liberia.
Zambia Hakainde Hichilema, presidential candidate and president of the opposition United Party for National Development in Zambia, reflected on Zambia’s 2016 election, and examined how opposition parties can be strengthened going forward.
22 | Chatham House Elections and Political Systems
Sierra Leone Ahead of Sierra Leone’s 2018 presidential election, Brig. (rtd) Julius Maada Bio of the Sierra Leone People’s Party examined how, in the wake of a number of national crises in recent years, Sierra Leone must ensure that the 2018 general election is both peaceful and credible.
Kenya’s 2017 elections Confidence in Kenya’s electoral Ahead of August’s presidential election in Kenya, commission … the Africa Programme hosted a discussion to assess the prospects for a credible process. The speakers’ is likely to prove assessments of potential problems with the extremely brittle election process, in particular with the technology in the face of and IEBC, proved prescient. In its 1 September any problems. ruling annulling the presidential election, the This is because Supreme Court placed the blame squarely on a reputation for the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), noting that the technology independence is enabling the transmission of results from polling hard to acquire stations to the national tallying centre had failed, and easy to lose as well other unconstitutional features, such as
Gabrielle Lynch, Professor of the potential hacking of the IEBC’s servers. Comparative Politics, University of Warwick Odinga Should Heed his Own Words to Strengthen Kenyan Democracy Analysis by Rebekka Rumpel following the 8 August elections addressed the opposition leader Raila Odinga’s claims that the presidential election had been hacked, and emphasized the importance of using legal channels to address the dispute.
Kenya’s Next Test: Democracy, Elections and the Rule of Law At an Africa Programme event, Kenya’s opposition leader, Rt Hon Raila Odinga, discussed his decision to boycott the 26 October election, the IEBC
Chatham House | 23 Elections and Political Systems
reforms he and the NASA coalition would like to see implemented, and how the next government can drive forward institutional reforms to strengthen Kenya’s democracy.
Kenya Election Fallout Makes Institutional Challenges Impossible to Ignore An expert comment by Rebekka Rumpel and Natasha Kimani addressed the need for institutional reform and argued that without political compromise, support for the judiciary and steps to tackle police abuses, Kenya faces a turbulent future.
The End of the Mugabe Presidency in Zimbabwe Africa Programme researchers were in Harare as the military managed removal of President Mugabe unfolded. Our analysts produced a series of comment pieces assessing the transition, South Africa’s predicament over Zimbabwe, China’s influence in Zimbabwe, the economic priorities of the new administration, and implications of Mugabe’s fall for Africa’s long standing leaders. The Africa Programme is working with local There is consensus partner organisations in Zimbabwe to facilitate on President discussion on the country’s economic trajectory and required policy programme. Mnangagwa’s ability to deliver Mugabe’s Fall is a Wake-up Call for Africa’s Leaders on the economy, Following the end of the Mugabe presidency but doubts remain in Zimbabwe, Alex Vines wrote that Africa’s about him as a long-standing leaders will come under political reformer increasing pressure to demonstrate their societal value. Knox Chitiyo, Associate Fellow, Africa Programme
24 | Chatham House Elections and Political Systems
South Africa’s ANC Leadership Conference On 18 December the ANC announced that its new leader will be current national Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, who will lead the party into national elections in 2019. The Africa Programme has been following the internal changes of the party and South Africa’ s continued democratic development through our events and research. What we’re going An expert comment by Chris Vandome analysed the to see across political battles ahead for Ramaphosa. Advocate southern Africa in Thuli Madonsela gave her first hand perspective of the next ten years, advancing accountability and constitutionalism in the country. Former interim president and party is the decline of stalwart Kgalema Motlanthe spoke of the limits of National Liberation the country’s constitution and the imperative for Movements who quality leadership. have been unable Frequent visits by Programme staff to the country to deliver on the have ensured informed and nuanced analysis as expectations attention has focussed on the impact of leadership of younger changes within the party steering the continent’s populations most developed economy.
Chris Vandome, Research Analyst, Africa Programme
Chatham House | 25 Peace and Security
In this tense The Africa Programme hosted Nkongho Felix situation, Agbor Balla, Founder and Chairman of the Centre confidence-building for Human Rights and Democracy in Africa, who discussed the ongoing crisis in Anglophone Cameroon from both sides and how the government, civil society and the as well as national Cameroonian diaspora can help to resolve the crisis. dialogue are 2017 has seen an upsurge in violence in the needed Central African Republic, with a growing number Dr Nkongho Felix Agbor Balla, of people requiring urgent humanitarian assistance. Founder and Chairman, Centre for Human Rights and Democracy The Africa Programme hosted Najat Rochdi, in Africa (CHRDA) Deputy Special Representative for MINUSCA and UNDP Resident Representative in CAR, who examined the key challenges the country faces and outlined the UN’s long-term strategies, both for the protection of civilians and the strengthening of the political process. Maritime security continued to be a key focus for the Programme in 2017. An event was held in collaboration with Oceans Beyond Piracy and the Oil Companies International Marine Forum, which examined the contentious debate around the use of private maritime security companies on commercial vessels as a means of protecting against illicit activity at sea.
Mozambique’s Stability is Being put to the Test Following the October displays of armed violence in Mozambique, Alex Vines analysed, including in Le Monde Afrique, that the country’s economic prospects remain promising, but in the short term, it is uncertain whether the political leadership can deliver macroeconomic stability.
26 | Chatham House 2017 Africa Programme Speakers
Hon Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi Irro Hon Alexander Chikwanda MP, Minister MP, Speaker of the House of Representatives, of Finance, Republic of Zambia Somaliland; Presidential Candidate for the Waddani Party Hillary M. Chindodo, Founder and CEO, Commodity and General Trading Limited Funmi Adebayo, Fixed Income Sales & Trading, Senior Associate, Exotix Capital Knox Chitiyo, Associate Fellow, Africa Programme, Chatham House Victor Adeleke, Deputy Head, Industry, Trade and Investment, High Commission Dr Stefan Cibian, Academy Fellow, of the Federal Republic of Nigeria Africa Programme, Chatham House Adam Afriyie MP, UK Prime Minister’s Trade Professor Christopher Clapham, Emeritus Envoy to Ghana Professor, University of Cambridge; Author, The Horn of Africa: State Formation and Decay Nkongho Felix Agbor Balla, Founder and Chairman, Centre for Human Rights Diogo José Paulo Cristiano, Chargé d’Affaires and Democracy in Africa (CHRDA) ad Interim, Embassy of the Republic of Angola to the UK Dahane Ahmed Mahmoud, Executive Director, Mauritanian Institute for Strategic Studies Maria da Cruz, President, US-Angola Chamber of Commerce Ibrahim Alfa Ahmed, Web Editor, Voice of America Hausa Raúl Manuel Danda, Vice President, União Nacional para a Independência Abdel-Ghani Al-Naeim, Undersecretary, Ministry Total de Angola (UNITA) of Foreign Affairs, Republic of the Sudan Hon Leticia Deusina da Silva Klemens, HE Lazarus Amayo, High Commissioner Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy, of the Republic of Kenya to the UK Republic of Mozambique
HE Paul Arkwright CMG, British High Hon Dr Rob Davies, Minister of Trade Commissioner to Nigeria and Industry, Republic of South Africa Stephen Askins, Partner, Tatham McInnes Dickie Davis, Managing Director, Nant Enterprises Ltd; Special Advisor, Amanda Bennett, Director, Voice of America Brenthurst Foundation Dr Danielle Beswick, Senior Lecturer, Atje Drexler, Head of Department, International Development Department, International Relations, Europe and University of Birmingham its Neighbors, Robert Bosch Stiftung HE Ajay K. Bramdeo, Permanent Representative Tony Dykes, Director, Action for Southern of the African Union, Permanent Mission to the Africa (ACTSA) European Union (EU) and African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) States Rt Hon Tobias Ellwood, Parliamentary Under Secretary of State and Minister for Dr David James Cantor, Director, Refugee the Middle East and Africa, UK Foreign Law Initiative, School of Advanced Study, and Commonwealth Office University of London HE Mallam Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai, Governor, Col Richard Cantrill, Chief of Staff, European Kaduna State, Federal Republic of Nigeria Union Naval Force (Somalia) Tony O. Elumelu, Chairman, Heirs Holdings Dr Ioannis Chapsos, Research Fellow in Maritime Security, Coventry University
Chatham House | 27 2017 Africa Programme Speakers
Larry English, Chief Executive, Real Equity James Hamill, Lecturer, University for All (Reall) of Leicester Jake Epelle, Founder, The Albino Foundation Hakainde Hichilema, President, United Party for National Development (UPND) Ikponwosa Ero, UN Independent Expert on the Enjoyment of Human Rights by Professor Alan Hirsch, Director, Graduate Persons with Albinism School of Development Policy and Practice, University of Cape Town HE Moussa Faki Mahamat, Chairperson, African Union Commission Dr Leena Koni Hoffmann, Associate Fellow, Africa Programme, Chatham House Mansoura Fall, Journalist, Agence de Presse Sénégalaise Matthew Hollingworth, United Nations World Food Programme Representative; Country HE Barry Faure, Secretary of State for Director, Sudan Foreign Affairs of the Republic of the Seychelles; Chairman, Contact Group on Dr Gita Honwana Welch, Associate Fellow, Piracy Off the Coast of Somalia (CGPCS) Africa Programme, Chatham House Dr Jonathan Fisher, Senior Lecturer in African Dr Lucy Hovil, Senior Researcher, International Politics, International Development Department Refugee Rights Initiative and Academic Director of the Governance and Social Development Resource Centre (GSDRC), Dr Don Hubert, President, Resources for University of Birmingham Development Consulting; Author, Many Ways to Lose a Billion Bimbo Roberts Folayan, Executive Director, Nigeria Diaspora Direct Investment Summit Jon Huggins, Senior Advisor, Oceans Beyond Piracy Dr Christopher Fomunyoh, Senior Associate and Regional Director, Central and West Africa, Khaled Hussein, Chief, Forecasting Section, National Democratic Institute Macroeconomic Policy Division, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa Jose García Barahona, Country Director, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Oxfam Samson Itodo, Executive Director, Youth Initiative for Advocacy, Growth HE Professor Ibrahim Ghandour, Minister and Advancement of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Sudan Ivan Jančárek, Junior Deputy Minister, Hon Joe Ghartey, Minister of Railway Section of Non-European Countries, Economic Development, Republic of Ghana and Development Cooperation, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Czech Republic HE Amadou Gon Coulibaly, Prime Minister, Republic of Côte d’Ivoire HE Yackoley Kokou Johnson, Permanent Representative of Togo to the United Nations Murray Grant, Managing Director, Office, Geneva Intermediated Equity, CDC Group Ambassador Monica Juma DPhil CBS, Professor Owen Greene, Department of Principal Secretary, Ministry Peace Studies and International Development, of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Kenya University of Bradford George Kagoro, Executive Director, HE Ameenah Gurib-Fakim, President, Kenya Human Rights Commission Republic of Mauritius
28 | Chatham House 2017 Africa Programme Speakers
Dr Ali Kamal-Deen, Executive Director, Centre for Victor Lopes, Senior Economist, Standard Maritime Law and Security Africa Director of Chartered Bank Research, Ghana Armed Forces Command Sidonia Lucia Kula, School of Law, School Carlos Tiago Kandanda, Senior Adviser of Oriental and African Studies, University to the President, Convergência Ampla de of London Salvação de Angola (CASA-CE) Dr Gabrielle Lynch, Associate Professor, HE Yamina Karitanyi, High Commissioner for University of Warwick the Republic of Rwanda to the United Kingdom Brigadier (Ret.) Julius Maada Bio, Sierra Rubbina Karruna, Cities Advisor, UK Leone People’s Party Department for International Development Robert MacRae QC, Attorney General of Jersey Michael Keating, Special Representative, Secretary-General for Somalia; Head, United Thuli Madonsela, Public Protector, Republic Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) of South Africa (2009–16) Dr Abbi M. Kedir, Associate Professor of Jok Madut Jok, Co-Founder, The Sudd Institute International Business, University of Sheffield Hon Abubakar Malami (SAN), Attorney- Professor Gaim Kibreab, Research Professor General of the Federation and Minister of and Course Director, MSc Refugee Studies, Justice, Federal Republic of Nigeria London South Bank University; Author, Hambani Masheleni, Senior Policy Officer, The Eritrean National Service: Servitude for Human Resources, Science and Technology the common good and the Youth Exodus Department, African Union Commission Søren Kirk Jensen, Associate Fellow, Africa Bishop Carlos Matinshe, Bishop Programme, Chatham House of Lebombo, Mozambique Susie Kitchens, Deputy High Commissioner, Beth Mendelson, Senior Executive Producer, British High Commission, Kenya Voice of America Admiral (Rtd) Rabinder Kumar Dhowan, HE Noël Nelson Messone, Minister of Foreign Chief of Naval Staff, Indian Navy (2014–16) Affairs, Republic of Gabon HE Helen Meagher La Lime, US Ambassador Dr Greg Mills, Director, Brenthurst Foundation to Angola Dr Arthur Minsat, Acting Head of Laurie Lee, Chief Executive, CARE International Unit–Africa, Europe & Middle-East, Michelle Lenihan, Acting Deputy Assistant OECD Development Centre Secretary of Defense Principal Director (African Muluka Miti-Drummond, Senior Programme Affairs), Office of the Secretary of Defense, Lawyer, International Bar Association’s Human US Department of Defense Rights Institute Dr Matt Lilley, CEO Africa, Prudential Dr Richard Moncrieff, Central Africa Project Brian Lisko, Maritime Programs Branch, Director, International Crisis Group Counternarcotics and Transnational Threats Jason Mosley, Associate Fellow, Africa Programs Division, United States Africa Command Programme, Chatham House Dr Carlos Lopes, Graduate School of Development Policy and Practice, University of Cape Town; Executive Secretary, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (2012–16)
Chatham House | 29 2017 Africa Programme Speakers
HE Kgalema Motlanthe, President, Republic Ayisha Osori, Chairperson, Open Society of South Africa (2008–09) Initiative for West Africa Dr Liliane Mouan, Programme Assistant Andrea E. Ostheimer, Director, Sub-Saharan and Senior Research Fellow, Transnational Africa Department, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Law Institute, King’s College London Gladwell Otieno, Director, Africog Dr Nkosana Moyo, Leader, Alliance for Peoples Agenda (APA) Nayanka Paquete Perdigão, Research Associate, African Leadership Centre, Solomon Mugera, Regional Editor, BBC Africa, King’s College London BBC World Service Tauhid Pasha, Senior Labour Mobility and Professor Killion Munzele Munyama, Member Human Development Specialist, International of Parliament, Republic of Poland Organization for Migration Dr Robtel Neajai Pailey, Senior Research Raj Patel, PhD Candidate, Department of Officer, International Migration Institute, Philosophy, University of Pennsylvania University of Oxford Hon Captain Momodu Pat-Sowe, Minister of Chief John Nnia Nwodo, President-General Trade and Industry, Republic of Sierra Leone of the Ohanaeze Ndigbo Ricardina Pederneira, Author, Do Business Stephen O’Brien, Under-Secretary-General in Angola for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, United Nations Erick Rajaonary, CEO of the GuanoMad Group; President, Association of the His Imperial Majesty (HIM) Ọba Adéyeyè Madagascar Entrepreneurs Enitan Ògúnwùsì (Òjájá II), Oòni of Ifé Professor Paul Richards, Professor Emeritus, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, President, Federal Wageningen University Republic of Nigeria (1999–07); Chairperson, African Union (2004–06) Najat Rochdi, Deputy Special Representative for the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Rt Hon Raila Odinga EGH, Coalition Leader, Stabilization Mission in the Central African NASA; Party Leader, ODM; Prime Minister of Republic (MINUSCA); United Nations Resident the Republic of Kenya (2008–13) Coordinator, Humanitarian Coordinator and Resident Representative of the United Nations Dr Lutz Oette, Senior Lecturer, School of Law Development Programme (UNDP) and Director of the Centre for Human Rights Law, School of Oriental and African Studies, Stephanie Rochford, Director of Member University of London Engagement, Publish What You Pay HE Yusuf-Garaad Omar, Minister Marta Ruedas, United Nations Resident of Foreign Affairs and International and Humanitarian Coordinator for Sudan Cooperation, Federal Republic of Somalia Mona Sadek, Deputy Head of Mission, United Oluseun Onigbinde, Co-Founder, BudgIT Kingdom and Ireland, International Committee of the Red Cross Hon Yaw Osafo-Maafo, Senior Minister, Republic of Ghana HE Aichatou Sanni Aoudou, Ambassador of the Republic of Gabon to the UK
30 | Chatham House 2017 Africa Programme Speakers
Maria Sarungi, Director, Compass Oscar Van Heerden, Trustee, Kgalema Communications; Founder, #ChangeTanzania Motlanthe Foundation Platform Dr Alex Vines OBE, Director, Area Studies and Abebe Selassie, Director, Africa Department, International Law and Head, Africa Programme, International Monetary Fund Chatham House Howard Sharp QC, Former Solicitor General Karsten Von Hoesslin, Host, Lawless Oceans, of Jersey National Geographic Series Hans-Christian Stausboll, Head of Halakhe Dida Waqo, CEO, Ethics and Unit for Eastern Africa/Horn of Africa, Anti-Corruption Commission, Kenya Directorate-General for International Cooperation and Development (DG-DevCo), Professor Leif Wenar, Chair of Philosophy European Commission and Law, King’s College London Rory Stewart OBE MP, Minister of State, HE Chief Ezenwo Nyesom Wike, Executive Department for International Development Governor of Rivers State, Federal Republic and Minister of State, Foreign and of Nigeria Commonwealth Office Dr Dirk Willem te Velde, Principal Ambassador Sanja Štiglic, State Secretary, Research Fellow and Head, International Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Slovenia Economic Development Group, Overseas Development Institute Bishop Emeritus Paride Taban, Founder, the Holy Trinity Peace Village, Kuron, South Sudan Ambassador Donald Yamamoto, Acting Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Semia Tapia, Social Affairs Officer, African Affairs, US Department of State Urbanization Section, Social Development Policy Division, UNECA Angelina Teny, Chairperson of National Committee for Security and Defence, Sudan People’s Liberation Movement In-Opposition (SPLM-IO) Dr Anders Themnér, Senior Researcher, Nordic Africa Institute; Editor, Warlord Democrats in Africa: Ex-Military Leaders and Electoral Politics Henry Thompson, Project Consultant, Africa Programme, Chatham House Conrad Thorpe OBE, CEO, Salama Fikira Christine Umutoni, UN Resident/Humanitarian Coordinator and UNDP Resident Representative in Eritrea José Octávio Serra Van-Dúnem, Director of Law, Economic and Social Centre of Studies (CEJES), Agostinho Neto University
Chatham House | 31 2017 Africa Programme Reports
Research Paper Research Paper Research Paper Dianna Games Henry Thompson, Ben Shepherd, Gita Honwana Welch Ben Shepherd Africa Programme | November 2017 and Adjoa Anyimadu Africa Programme | June 2017 Africa Programme | September 2017 South Africa’s Developing Businesses of Building Inclusivity Economic Engagement Scale in Sub-Saharan Africa in Côte d’Ivoire? in Sub-Saharan Africa Insights from Nigeria, Tanzania, Promoting Sustainable Growth Drivers, Constraints Uganda and Zambia Through Infrastructure Development and Future Prospects Chatham House Chatham
Chatham House Report Research Paper Leena Koni Hoffmann and Raj Navanit Patel Stefan Cibian Africa Programme | May 2017
Collective Action on Central and Eastern Europe Corruption in Nigeria and Sub-Saharan Africa Prospects for Sustained Re-engagement A Social Norms Approach to Connecting Society and Institutions
32 | Chatham House Africa Programme Staff
Dr Alex Vines OBE Katherine Lawson Research Director, Events and Area Studies and Parliamentary International Law; Outreach Assistant Head, Africa Programme Elizabeth Donnelly Rebekka Rumpel Deputy Head and Research Assistant Research Fellow
Tighisti Amare Ben Shepherd Manager Consulting Fellow
Ahmed Soliman Natasha Kimani Research Associate Academy Fellow
Chris Vandome Research Analyst Associate Fellows Dr Knox Chitiyo Bob Dewar Dr Leena Koni Hoffmann Eugénie McLachlan Dr Gita Honwana Welch Administrator Christina Katsouris Dame Rosalind Marsden Paul Melly Jason Mosley Matthew Page Daragh Neville Sola Tayo Projects Officer
Chatham House | 33 Africa Programme Funders
• Actis • Hogan Lovells • Agility • Investec • AIG • JP Morgan • Anglo American • Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung • Baker McKenzie • Leverhulme Trust • Barclays • Lonrho • Bechtel • Ministry for Foreign • BP Affairs, Sweden • CDC Group • Mitsubishi Corporation • Chevron • Mitsui & Co. • De Beers • Noble Energy • Delonex Energy • Petrofac • Department for International • Prudential Development, UK • Rio Tinto • Diageo • Robert Bosch Stiftung • Dulverton Trust • Shell International • Eaton Vance • Standard Bank Group • Economic and Social • Standard Chartered Bank Research Council, UK • Statoil • ExxonMobil • Stavros Niarchos Foundation • Federal Department of Foreign • Total Affairs, Switzerland • Toyota • Foreign & Commonwealth • Trafigura Office, UK • Tullow Oil • Government of the United States • World Bank of America
34 | Chatham House Africa Programme Partners
• African Studies Association • Institute of International of India (New Delhi) Relations (Prague) • Center for Strategic and • Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung International Studies (Sankt Augustin) (Washington DC) • Nigerian Institute of • Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs (Lagos) (New York) • South African Institute • Egmont Institute (Brussels) of International Affairs • European Union Institute for (Johannesburg) Security Studies (Paris) • University of Pennsylvania • Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Social Norms Group (Bonn) (Philadelphia) • Institut Français des Relations Internationales (Paris)
Chatham House | 35 The views expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the speaker(s) and participants, and do not necessarily reflect the view of Chatham House, its staff, associates or Council. Chatham House is independent and owes no allegiance to any government or to any political body. It does not take institutional positions on policy issues. This document is issued on the understanding that if any extract is used, the author(s)/speaker(s) and Chatham House should be credited, preferably with the date of the publication or details of the event. Where this document refers to or reports statements made by speakers at an event, every effort has been made to provide a fair representation of their views and opinions. The published text of speeches and presentations may differ from delivery. The Africa Programme in 2017 Programme The Africa
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