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The Africa Programme in 2017 Chatham House Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, Is an Independent Policy Institute Based in London The Africa Programme in 2017 Annual Report Africa Programme | December 2017 The Africa Programme in 2017 Chatham House Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, is an independent policy institute based in London. Our mission is to help build a sustainably secure, prosperous and just world. For more information please contact Tighisti Amare, Africa Programme Manager, Chatham House Tel: + 44 (0) 207 9527 5718 Email: [email protected] | @AfricaProg Website: https://www.chathamhouse.org/about/structure/africa-programme Contents Foreword 2 Introduction 3 Africa in the International System 4 Demographic Change and Inclusive Economic Growth 9 Technology and Governance 12 The Africa Programme and Nigeria 14 The Horn of Africa Project 18 The Africa Programme and Angola 20 Elections and Political Systems 22 Peace and Security 26 2017 Africa Programme Speakers 27 2017 Africa Programme Reports 32 Africa Programme Staff 33 Africa Programme Funders 34 Africa Programme Partners 35 Chatham House | 1 Foreword 2017 was a year of leadership changes and unprecedented events in a number of sub-Saharan African countries. ECOWAS regional leaders ensured that President Yahya Jammeh obeyed the will of the Gambian people to end his 22 year reign. President Robert Mugabe was forced from office, the only leader independent Zimbabwe has known in its 37 years. In Angola, José Eduardo dos Santos, also president for 37 years, ended his own tenure, enabling a smooth transition. Somalia’s Mohamed Abdullahi ‘Farmaajo’ Mohamed defeated his more established rivals to win the February presidential election, and the Kenyan Supreme Court made history in voiding the result of the August election. Post-conflict Liberia has taken charge of organizing its elections without the involvement of the UN for the first time, and what challenges there were in the first round were made through the courts and not on the streets. Increasing resort to the courts reveals growing trust in and independence of the judiciary, and shows how the entrenchment of the rule of law and stronger institutions can take the heat out of political crises. But the past year has also seen democratic principles undermined with mounting state repression in Zambia, Tanzania and Cameroon among others, as well as seemingly deadlocked crises in South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. As sub-Saharan Africa’s political trends diverged, so too did its economic development. While growth ticked up slightly across the continent on average – to around 2.4 per cent, up from 1.3 per cent in 2016 – this figure masks immense heterogeneity in the experiences of different countries. While Nigeria and South Africa, the former continental powerhouses, went through periods of recession as a result of low global energy and metals prices, more dynamic economies including Ethiopia, Côte d’Ivoire and Rwanda managed to sustain growth rates of over seven per cent. A key area of concern in 2018 will be rising debt levels and debt servicing costs, as well as the immense challenge of creating quality jobs for the 420 million Africans ages 15 to 35. In 2018, the Africa Programme will continue to work with decision-makers towards fostering improved outcomes in Africa, as we sustain analysis of and debate on sub-Saharan Africa’s political and economic successes and trials. We could not do this work without all those who fund us, and we are grateful for their generous support. Dr Alex Vines OBE Head, Africa Programme 2 | Chatham House Introduction Around the world, 2017 has been a year of major political upheavals and geopolitical shifts. As many countries grapple with significant domestic challenges, the Africa Programme has continued to expand its activities, seeking to support decision-makers internationally with evidence-based analysis and policy options, and providing a platform for debate and discussion. The Africa Programme maintains its unique position as the largest policy programme on African affairs and international relations within an independent institute globally. Africa Programme policy publications this year have examined the scaling- up of businesses in Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia; governance for infrastructure development in Côte d’Ivoire; a new approach to anti-corruption efforts in Nigeria; South Africa’s economic engagement in sub-Saharan Africa; and Central and Eastern Europe’s re-engagement with sub-Saharan Africa. We hosted over 130 events in 2017, and our analysts provided over 600 written contributions and verbal interviews to media organizations globally. Africa Programme Outreach in 2017: • 40+ Publications • 130+ Events • 600+ Media contributions • 30+ Countries visited Our events provide international policy-makers with important independent primary information and analysis on African governance, economic growth, demographic change, security, development and resource management. They also provide the opportunity for engagement of African and other international policy-makers with private sector representatives, civil society, independent experts, diplomats and the media. Field research has remained core to our work and in the last year, Africa Programme researchers have travelled to over 30 countries and engaged with a wide range of stakeholders. Increased use of video-streaming and social media has ensured that discussions can reach a broader audience, enabling wider interaction with government and opposition leaders, as well as civil society representatives and businesses. Chatham House | 3 Africa in the International System Africa Programme research and network development seek to generate better understanding among international policy- makers of the changing dynamics of the African political and economic landscape, and of government priorities. In 2017, the Programme hosted a series of events to assess regional and international priorities of governments across Africa, with the foreign ministers of Gabon, Somalia and Sudan; the Principal Secretary at the Kenyan Ministry of Foreign Affairs; and the Undersecretary at the Sudanese Foreign Ministry. Central and Eastern Europe and sub-Saharan Africa The countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and sub-Saharan Africa have started to re- engage with each other after many years of limited interaction following the end of the Cold War. With the support of Robert Bosch Stiftung, the Africa Programme is examining the drivers of and Africa is of growing prospects for further engagement between the two regions. A series of events, publications and interest to CEE but fellowships have examined the opportunities that these relations might emerge for CEE and African countries from will not become these engagements. sustainable As part of this project, a one-day conference in without a strategic Berlin, and expert workshops in Prague and Berlin approach on were held in 2017. Programme analysts conducted both sides field research in the Czech Republic, Ethiopia, Stefan Cibian, Chatham House Hungary, Mozambique, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Academy Fellow (2016–2017) South Africa and Tanzania. 4 | Chatham House Africa in the International System The Horn of Africa and Gulf States The drivers, nature and impact of the emerging interests and relations between countries in the Horn of Africa and the Gulf have been analysed through field research and expert workshops conducted in the two regions. The final output of this project, a research paper to be published in 2018, will focus on the economic, diplomatic and Intra-Gulf disputes strategic cooperation and competition that is playing out and having wider consequences in the region. are having an increasing The findings of this in-depth study will seek impact on relations to support improved coordination and policy outcomes towards sustainable peace, development in the Horn of and integration in the Horn of Africa. Africa, with the potential to disrupt An expert comment by Ahmed Soliman examined these dynamics, including how tensions between regional stability the Gulf States are pushing partners in the Horn Ahmed Soliman, Research of Africa into choosing sides, with the potential Associate, Africa Programme to further disrupt regional stability. South Africa’s Economic Engagement in Sub-Saharan Africa This research paper assesses the drivers of South Africa’s economic engagement in sub- Saharan Africa and highlights how successive ANC governments have sought to leverage the country’s commercial advancement to bolster the country’s political influence on the continent. It concludes that a more strategic and realistic approach is required for South Africa to fulfil its complex and often conflicting roles. Additional commentary argued that such a strategic vision need not contradict the values that have shaped the party’s aspirations for the continent since 1994. Chatham House | 5 Africa in the International System China currently Africa–China Relations provides around China’s rapid economic growth and the abundance one sixth of of natural resources in many African countries Africa’s total have fuelled economic engagements, which have financing for grown exponentially since the turn of the century infrastructure and attracted international interest. Economic cooperation with the continent has resulted in projects Chinese companies operating in almost every sector in Africa, and China currently provides around one sixth of Africa’s total financing for infrastructure projects. In November Alex Vines participated in the Beijing Forum 2017, which looked at emerging trends
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