Towards a Model for Long Distance Passenger Travel in the Context of Infrastructure and Public Transport Planning
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Towards a model for long distance passenger travel in the context of infrastructure and public transport planning Public transport acces to Arlanda airport, % 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Airport bus Other bus Arlanda X2000 Upptåget Other train Flight Express train (interregional train) STAFFAN ALGERS JOHN BATES KJELL JANSSON HARALD LANG ODD LARSEN HENRIK SWAHN Report Stockholm 2013 TRITA-TSC-RR 13-013 KTH Arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad ISBN 978-91-87353-27-7 Avdelningen för trafik och logistik www.kth.se/abe KTH, SE-100 44 Stockholm 2 3 Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) TRITA-TSC-RR 13-013 School of Architecture and the Built Environment Division of Transport and Logistics ISBN 978-91-87353-27-7 Towards a model for long distance passenger travel in the context of infrastructure and public transport planning Consensus report by (in alphabetical order) STAFFAN ALGERS JOHN BATES KJELL JANSSON HARALD LANG ODD LARSEN HENRIK SWAHN Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan (KTH) Avdelningen för Trafik & Logistik 2013-12-20 4 Preface It is likely that long distance travel will become more important from a transport policy point of view during the next few decades. Regional economic development and increasing focus on the interaction between regions, environment and climate policy, as well as technical development in passenger transport and infrastructure are important driving forces. Therefore, it is increasingly important that the tools for analysis and forecasting of long distance travel that are used by public agencies and other actors are of high standard and that they are developed to keep up with new developments and policy issues. Models of long distance travel demand have a central role among the tools for analyses, primarily because they give important input to decisions about capacity as well as for societal Benefit Cost Analyses. The models that are now in practical use for transport planning and policy analyses by public agencies and for other purposes by other actors have all been around for many years. Despite the fact that both models and data for the models have been developed over the years, both users and researchers in the field have come to the conclusion that the current models have certain deficiencies in relation to current requirements. A particular and somewhat troublesome problem is that the outcome of an analysis may well differ considerably between different models. In this report we outline possible and promising ways to improve the current model systems for long distance travel, which have the potential to give better traffic forecasts as well as more correct societal Benefit Cost Analyses. We propose that model development within the field of long distance travel is carried out in two time perspectives – the short to medium term, and the longer term. Our recommendations are based on the analyses of the central issues in long distance travel modelling which we have conducted within the project. In this process we have benefited from our joint experience as well as our contacts with Swedish and international research within the field. We have also benefited from the comparative analyses carried out in this project between the model implementation Sampers, which clearly dominates Swedish transport policy analyses, and one implementation of the model system Vips. We gratefully acknowledge the financial support to this project from Vinnova, Banverket, SIKA and Storstockholms lokaltrafik as well as the active personal support from Fredric Almqvist, Banverket, Gunilla Wikström, SIKA. We are also grateful for the expertise regarding Sampers and Visum contributed respectively by Peter Roming and Josef Andersson. We are indebted to Andrew Daly for constructive criticism and suggestions. We would also like to thank the participants of a seminar that was arranged by the project team for many valuable comments and suggestions. The authors share the responsibility for the contents of the report. Staffan Algers, John Bates, Kjell Jansson, Harald Lang, Odd Larsen, Henrik Swahn. 5 Contents Preface ............................................................................................................................4 Executive summary ........................................................................................................8 Objectives ...............................................................................................................8 The transport policy relevance of long distance travel is growing ........................8 Current models for long distance travel demand need improvement .....................8 Demand and supply of long distance travel are complex – prioritizing and choice between alternative approximations are necessary in modelling ...........................8 Two major model systems for long distance travel demand currently in use in Sweden differ in scope and basic principles ........................................................................9 Calculation of change of consumer surplus due to different measures ................10 Five main issues for further research have been identified ..................................11 The future development of long distance demand models should have two time perspectives and study four alternative strategies ................................................12 Förord ...........................................................................................................................13 Sammanfattning ...........................................................................................................15 Studiens syfte .......................................................................................................15 Det långväga resandet (inom landet) får en växande betydelse i trafikpolitiken .15 Dagens modeller för efterfrågan på långväga resande har brister ........................15 Efterfrågan och utbud för långväga resande är komplexa företeelser – modellering kräver prioritering och val mellan olika approximationer ...............................................15 De två dominerande modellsystemen i Sverige har olika omfattning och bygger på olika grundprinciper ......................................................................................................16 Beräkning av förändring av konsumentöverskott vid olika åtgärder ...................17 Fem huvudfrågor har identifierats som kräver fortsatta insatser för forskning och utveckling .............................................................................................................17 Fortsatt utveckling bör ske med två olika tidsperspektiv och studera fyra alternativa strategier ...............................................................................................................18 1 Introduction ..........................................................................................................21 1.1 Background ....................................................................................................21 1.2 Examples of use of the models ......................................................................21 1.3 Sampers according to users ...........................................................................22 1.4 Other models – Vips and Visum ....................................................................22 1.5 Reformulating the project aim .......................................................................23 1.6 Structure of the report ....................................................................................24 2 Issues that have to be addressed in approaching an ideal model for long distance travel 26 2.1 The role of an ideal model .............................................................................26 2.2 User requirements on model support for long distance travel .......................27 2.3 Scope and purpose of the model ....................................................................28 2.4 Traveller categories and travellers’ preferences ............................................29 2.5 Characteristics of long distance transport supply ..........................................29 2.6 Modelling issues ............................................................................................30 2.6.1 Introduction ............................................................................................30 2.6.2 Important characteristics of long distance travel ....................................31 2.6.3 What traveller characteristics should be included in a model and how?’32 2.6.4 Issues relating to description and representation of supply ....................33 2.6.5 Issues relating to travellers’ choice sets and choice behaviour .............33 6 2.6.6 Issues relating to calculation of consumer surplus and overall social benefits and cost 34 2.7 Towards model formulations – alternative approaches to specific modelling issues 35 2.7.1 Introduction ............................................................................................35 2.7.2 Behavioural assumptions ........................................................................37 2.7.3 Approaches to heterogeneity of traveller characteristics, preferences, and values 39 2.7.4 Approaches to description and representation of supply .......................39 2.7.5 The model’s level of detail .....................................................................40 2.7.6 Approaches to choice sets that are assumed to be considered by travellers and to the structure of travellers’ decisions .....................................................................40